Housing Market Flips from Seller’s to Buyer’s Market in Much of the Country

Summary

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Summary Episode: Housing Market Flips from Seller’s to Buyer’s Market in Much of the Country
Release Date: April 4, 2025
Host: Dave Meyer
Guests: James Dainard, Kathy Fecky, Henry Washington

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Introduction

In this insightful episode of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, host Dave Meyer explores the potential shift in the housing market from a seller’s to a buyer’s market. Joined by seasoned investors James Dainard, Kathy Fecky, and Henry Washington, Dave delves into the implications of changing market conditions and shares strategies for investors looking to capitalize on this transition.

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Market Overview: Is It Finally a Buyer’s Market?

Dave Meyer opens the conversation by questioning whether the housing market is transitioning into a buyer’s market after a prolonged period of low inventory, frequent bidding wars, and skyrocketing prices.

Dave Meyer [00:05]:
"Wars, and skyrocketing prices, are we starting to see the tide turn?"

James Dainard echoes optimism, emphasizing the importance of good deals over macroeconomic conditions.

James Dainard [02:41]:
"A good deal is a good deal, and so as long as you underwrite it correctly and the value's there, you always got to pull that trigger."

Kathy Fecky highlights the market's resilience despite negative headlines, viewing fear as a gateway to opportunity.

Kathy Fecky [03:15]:
"When there's fear, then there's opportunity."

Henry Washington provides a balanced perspective, describing the market as "normal and healthy," and stresses the importance of quality over speed in sales.

Henry Washington [03:41]:
"Things that are done well sell at some point. Things that suck, sit longer, and you have to do a good job."

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Navigating the Transition: Strategies for Investors

James Dainard: Flipping in a Transitional Market

James shares his approach to flipping properties amid uncertain market conditions. By targeting median-priced homes with high demand and investing in heavier fixers, he aims to capitalize on increased buyer demand during peak selling seasons.

James Dainard [07:35]:
"We're heavy into the flips, we like them, we can turn them fast, we can control our cost and they can create quite a bit of cash for us in high returns right now."

He discusses a recent deal where he purchased a starter home for $6 million, anticipating a profitable resale at $10 million, underscoring the importance of timing and market conditions.

James Dainard [09:59]:
"The conditions did shift. This house would not have lasted at best price on the street. It's on. There's no way I would have been able to buy it for 6.3 million."

Henry Washington: Adaptability and Underwriting Fundamentals

Henry emphasizes mastering underwriting to mitigate risks in a buyer’s market. He advocates for purchasing properties at significant discounts, ensuring flexibility to flip or rent out as needed.

Henry Washington [32:06]:
"You have to master underwriting... so that you don't end up buying a deal that you can't get out of."

He shares successful flipping experiences, highlighting net profits and the importance of adhering to market fundamentals.

Henry Washington [16:15]:
"These are just basic run of the mill cosmetic fix and flip projects. They're everywhere out there right now. They're safe."

Kathy Fecky: Strategic Rental Investing

Kathy focuses on rental property investments, prioritizing long-term appreciation over immediate cash flow. She highlights that in growth markets, breaking even is acceptable if property values are poised to increase.

Kathy Fecky [21:55]:
"I don't mind breaking even. I'm not really a cash flow player. I think of this cash flow alone, it's a little boring to me."

She shares insights from her investments in Park City, Utah, where property values have risen significantly despite minimal cash flow.

Kathy Fecky [30:46]:
"If we're paying attention to where jobs are going, where factories are coming back... we knew that growth was coming."

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Key Takeaways and Actionable Advice

Holistic Investment Approach

Dave Meyer and Kathy Fecky advocate for evaluating real estate deals based on total return, which includes appreciation, cash flow, tax benefits, and loan repayment.

Dave Meyer [30:46]:
"Look at the appreciation, I look at the cash flow and I add it all up."

James reinforces the importance of data-driven decisions and market-specific analysis to identify sweet spots for investment.

James Dainard [26:59]:
"Use data and use math, not averages."

Risk Mitigation and Flexibility

Henry Washington advises investors to ensure each deal has multiple exit strategies, such as flipping or renting, to safeguard against market volatility.

Henry Washington [32:06]:
"Purchasing something that has two exit strategies is great protection."

Understanding Local Market Metrics

Henry underscores the necessity of monitoring local market indicators like list price to sale price ratios and median days on market to make informed investment decisions.

Henry Washington [35:24]:
"Things are selling at about 97, 98% list price to sale price ratio, meaning that they're only selling it maybe 1 to 2% less than they're listed for."

Investor Community and Reliable Information

Kathy Fecky emphasizes the value of communities like BiggerPockets for accessing reliable, experience-based information over generic media reports.

Kathy Fecky [38:20]:
"Try to limit the amount of information you get from those kinds of sites and go to real estate investor specific sites to get your real data and information."

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with Dave Meyer summarizing the collective insights, emphasizing that while a buyer’s market presents ample opportunities, investors must proceed with caution and strategic planning. By leveraging robust underwriting practices, understanding local market dynamics, and maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, real estate investors can navigate the transitioning market effectively.

Dave Meyer [34:37]:
"There's opportunities, don't sit on the sidelines, go look for things, but also try to find ways to take risk off the table."

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Dave Meyer [00:05]:
  "Wars, and skyrocketing prices, are we starting to see the tide turn?"

• James Dainard [02:41]:
  "A good deal is a good deal, and so as long as you underwrite it correctly and the value's there, you always got to pull that trigger."

• Kathy Fecky [03:15]:
  "When there's fear, then there's opportunity."

• James Dainard [09:59]:
  "The conditions did shift. This house would not have lasted at best price on the street."

• Henry Washington [32:06]:
  "You have to master underwriting... so that you don't end up buying a deal that you can't get out of."

• Kathy Fecky [21:55]:
  "I don't mind breaking even. I'm not really a cash flow player."

• Henry Washington [35:24]:
  "Things are selling at about 97, 98% list price to sale price ratio."

• Kathy Fecky [38:20]:
  "Go to real estate investor specific sites to get your real data and information."

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Final Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the shifting housing market, offering valuable perspectives and practical strategies for both novice and seasoned real estate investors. By focusing on data-driven decision-making, flexible investment strategies, and strong underwriting fundamentals, investors can effectively navigate the evolving market landscape to achieve financial freedom through real estate.

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Note: The transcript included advertisements and promotional segments between timestamps [11:33] and [26:24], which have been omitted from this summary to maintain focus on the episode's primary content.

Transcript

[Dave Meyer]

Is it finally a buyer's market for houses?

[James Dainard]

After years of few listings, frequent bidding.

[Dave Meyer]

Wars, and skyrocketing prices, are we starting to see the tide turn? And if we are, what does that mean for investors who have maybe been waiting for market conditions to shift before making their next investment? Today, we're going to break it all down. Hey, everyone.

[James Dainard]

I'm Dave Meyer, head of real estate.

[Dave Meyer]

Investing here at Biggerpockets. I've been investing in real estate for a long time, more than 15 years. So I have definitely seen my share of market cycles, both buyer's markets and sellers markets. And there is no question that we've been in mostly a seller's market across most of the country for a while now. But I think that is starting to change. And today I want to talk about it. So I'm going to be joined by three other investors who have spent their whole career. Careers analyzing when's the right time to deploy capital, when it's a better time to protect wealth. What strategies work at different parts of market cycles. You may know these three investors as my co hosts on the on the Market podcast is James Dard, Kathy Fecky, and Henry Washington. But today they're joining us here on the Bigger Pockets podcast to help us all understand what's going on in the.

[James Dainard]

Market, but more importantly, how, how you.

[Dave Meyer]

Can take advantage of it in building your own portfolio. So let's bring the crew on. Henry, welcome to the show. Thanks for being here, man.

[Henry Washington]

What's up, bud? Glad to be here.

[Dave Meyer]

It's good to see you, Kathy. You as well. Thanks for joining us all the way from Utah today. Looking like a news reporter, as you are.

[Kathy Fecky]

Yeah. Got the handheld today.

[Dave Meyer]

It looks very official. James, how you doing?

[James Dainard]

I'm doing good. I think I bit off more than I can chew and bought too many things at one time. But we're figuring it out.

[Kathy Fecky]

What else is new, James, that's true.

[Dave Meyer]

How many times do you come on the show and not have too much going on?

[James Dainard]

You know what? You thrive in chaos. That's the thing. Organized chaos.

[Kathy Fecky]

Or there might be a 12 step program for a real estate addict.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah. Yes. Admit you have a problem, James.

[James Dainard]

Yeah. I am powerless over a good deal. I have to buy it.

[Dave Meyer]

Well, this actually melds well with the topic of conversation today, which is are we in a buyer's market or what do you make of today's market? Because there's just so many conflicting signals right now. Mortgage rates are going down, which is good for buyers. We're seeing inventory go up, which is good for buyers, but there's all sorts of signs that the economy as a whole might be starting to soften. So, James, you said you're buying stuff. Like, are you looking sort of at the macroeconomic conditions and saying this is a good window or time to buy, or is it more just like these individual deals make sense and you're not really even thinking about the broader picture?

[James Dainard]

You know, I'm a person. Does the deal make sense today? And, you know, and I do think we could have a little bit of flatness and market could change up a little bit in the next 12 months, but we just kind of build that into our underwriting. At the end of the day, a good deal is a good deal, and so as long as you underwrite it correctly and the value's there, you always got to pull that trigger.

[Dave Meyer]

Okay, so you're clearly still buying. Cathy, what are you making of buying in market conditions today?

[Kathy Fecky]

Well, there's all these headlines about a recession and too much inventory on the market. And I love these headlines. This is my kind of market.

[Dave Meyer]

Right.

[Kathy Fecky]

It scares everyone. They freak out. They think there's a housing crash, which is what the headlines have said for 14 years. And unless you dive into the data, you're going to believe that stuff. It's really sad to me that so many new people to real estate get fooled by these headlines, but for me, we're diving in because when there's fear, then there's opportunity.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah. I'll save my opinion for just a minute. I want to hear yours. Henry, first, what is your read on the market today?

[Henry Washington]

It's normal and healthy.

[Dave Meyer]

Boring.

[Henry Washington]

Yeah. Everybody's saying things are slowing down. It's because we are slowing down from what we're used to. But things that are done well sell at some point. Things that suck, sit longer, and you have to do a good job. Now, I don't understand the problem.

[Dave Meyer]

So are you concerned at least at all that prices in your market, at least, Henry, are going to decline? Because, you know, not all over the country, but there are pockets where prices are flattening or softening right now.

[Henry Washington]

Yeah, I mean, I think that's going to be a nationwide trend for a little bit here. We're a little insulated because of the job market here. When I was looking at the statistics in this market earlier this week, we're. I think it was like 96, 97% list price to sale price ratio.

[Dave Meyer]

Wow.

[Henry Washington]

And median days on market around 35 days. So that's healthy to me.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, that's totally Normal. I guess my question to all of you is it's sort of how do you map out the next couple of months? Because I see these sort of like conflicting signals. On one hand, inventory is rising, demand is kind of up and down, depending on mortgage rates on any given day, it seems like. But there is a likely chance that prices are going to somewhere flat, especially as you compare them to inflation. They might still be up a little bit nominally, but we will see at least on a national trend that I think scares a lot of people away. But I also think like, there's going to be a rebound like a year from now where appreciation really starts to kick up. And so for me, I'm starting to get a little bit more excited about real estate over the course of this year because I just think if you're a long term investor that this might be like kind of a good window because my expectation is that rates are going to stay like a little bit volatile for the next few months, but there will be a downward trajectory at a certain point and I think it probably will hit the later half of next year. And I think the beginning of 2026 is almost certain, especially if there's a new Fed chairman that comes in. And so I personally am getting excited, but I feel like I'm the only one, at least when you look at headlines. Kathy, you said you're sort of feeling the same way as I am.

[Kathy Fecky]

Yeah, let's. Let's just say that you had wanted to invest in Austin and I don't know if you remember, Dave, but when we started the on the Market podcast and interest rates hadn't hiked yet and Austin was still a super hot market, that was your choice of the hottest market.

[Dave Meyer]

Oh yeah, I went there and almost bought stuff. I was looking around at properties and.

[Kathy Fecky]

That wasn't that long ago and. And so have the fundamentals of Austin changed or have just changed home prices changed. So people get just confused about what, you know, what was your ultimate goal if you wanted to buy in Austin? Now prices are lower and you have more options, yet jobs are still moving there. So the only difference is that rates went up. So prices are coming down, but rates are coming down too. So that would lead you to believe that eventually prices might flatten or go back up again. So it is this little window of opportunity if you, if you just understand the simple, simplest thing when it comes to economics, which is supply and demand. Supply would mean there's a lot of options and prices tend to come down and it's a buyer's market. A buyer's market is a time to buy.

[Dave Meyer]

There's trade offs in every type of market. But to me, if you're a long term investor, the buyer's market is tends to be better. If you're sort of doing value add or flips or wholesaling like those sellers markets, you can make a lot of money really quickly. James, as someone who does both, how do you adjust your strategy in this kind of environment? Are you shifting towards any type of strategy or is it still deal dependent for you?

[James Dainard]

You know, right now we're heavy into the flips, we like them, we can turn them fast, we can control our cost and they can create quite a bit of cash for us in high returns right now. And it's all about timing. You know when you, when you really crush a deal, you feel good about yourself, but it was really market timing. You bought the right deal, you operated well. But the reason you're, you are smacking that is because all the things came together right? And that's what happens. And so the reason I'm loading up on properties right now is a lot of these are heavier fixers that are going to take me seven, eight months going in where we're going to be coming into that spring first part of the year when we're wrapping these deals up. And we know if we hit that disposition time there is a lot more buyer demand. And so I'm really trying to pay attention to when we time in these deals. And then also what's the pricing for quicker deals. We're going for homes that are around that median home price per city because if you're in that medium area, that's where the masses are, there's still a lack of inventory. I don't care if it's at six months or five months. You know, to me there's a lack of good inventory and buyers want it. And when there is a lack of good inventory, no matter what the conditions are, it sells. And you want to be kind of more in that more affordable range. As I said that I just bought a house I'm going to try to sell for 10 million.

[Henry Washington]

It's, that's a starter home in Newport, right? First time home buyer for 10 million.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, it's 1600 square feet, two bedrooms.

[James Dainard]

But the reason I'm looking at that deal or not looking at, I'm buying this thing, I'm locked in that I'm losing some earnest money. It's because it's what is trading in that market, right. And so there's a Sweet spot to every market. And that's what we're trying to narrow in on. Where is the heaviest buyer demand? And that's where we want to play. And as markets change, people get a little nervous. That allows for good opportunities in good neighborhoods with good resale upside.

[Dave Meyer]

Well, actually, this, this deal that you're doing, James, is probably the least relatable deal of all time if you're buying it for 6 million and selling it for 10 million. But there, there is a really important lesson here, right? You've been trying to buy that deal for what, like three or four years now?

[James Dainard]

Yes, a long time. Three to four years.

[Dave Meyer]

So I'm curious, do you think that market conditions have shifted? Like Kathy says, a buyer's market, you now have more options, you have more negotiating. Le. Like, do you think these conditions shifted in a way that allowed you to buy this deal where previously the seller probably wouldn't have agreed to the price that you wanted to buy it for?

[James Dainard]

Well, I mean, they got a good price for the house, but yes, the conditions did shift. A. Because this house would not have lasted at best price on the street. It's on. There's no way I would have been able to buy it for 6.3 million. Just wouldn't happen. There have been multiple offers. Everyone wants to live on the street, but it needs some repairs. And because things are expensive, construction financing, there's less buyer demand for that product. But what has also happened in the last six months is the values increased. Originally, I thought this house would be worth about eight and a half million, and now I think it's worth closer to 10. Because a premium product, that is the sweet spot in this area. And if it's done well and done right, people will pay that premium price. So there's, there's a. The difference in the market is the less fixed up it is. The pricing kind of came down, and then the more fixed up, it's still increasing in value, and it created a healthy margin. And so, yes, it is market conditions, but it really didn't come to me like getting a best price on it. It was just getting the right price. And now the exit numbers have changed.

[Dave Meyer]

That point you just made, James, is another reason. I'm just bullish. And I think there's just a lot of upside in real estate right now is that margin is spreading. Like you said, stabilized assets, really good assets, prices are continuing to go up, but those places that need work, they are either flat or declining. And so the margin potential, if you're going to do a Value add project seems to be getting better, which I think is just a super exciting opportunity. Before we move on, today's show is sponsored by Resimply, the All in One CRM built for real estate investors.

[James Dainard]

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[Dave Meyer]

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[James Dainard]

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[Dave Meyer]

Off your first month. We're going to talk about more opportunities that you could start looking for in this buyer's market right after this break. We'll be right back.

[James Dainard]

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[Dave Meyer]

Kathy Fecky and Henry Washington talking about whether or not this is a buyer's market and what types of opportunities that you're seeing. So Henry, tell me a little bit about what's working best for you right now in this kind of market.

[Henry Washington]

You know, it's funny, this is like the most unpredictable I think the market's been for me in terms of like if I think it's going to sell fast for some reason it sells slow and if I think I'm going to struggle to sell it, it sells in a heartbeat. So maybe, maybe I don't know anything at all, but everything that we are listing is selling. We just sold two flips last week. One of them was listed for just under 60 days and in that 60 day period we got two offers. One was nowhere near what we wanted it to be and the other was full price. It took almost two months to get it, but we got a full price offer. We did a little negotiating during the inspection period and we ended up giving them about, you know, an extra thousand dollars worth of repairs during the inspection period and we closed. No big deal. The other was a flip that sat on the market for about 35 days. And on that one again we got two offers over the course of that 35 days. One we didn't like. The other one was a good offer but this time the buyer and the buyer's agent were a little savvier about market conditions. And so they asked for a lot and I gave them money, most of everything that they asked for. I mean, and I even took it to the point where I was going to be like, look, I'm not doing that. And they were like, all right, well, we're walking away. And I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

[Dave Meyer]

Okay, okay, I'm doing that. Yeah, I lied.

[Henry Washington]

And so in that regard, yeah, it is operating more like a buyer's market. Ask for what you want. If they say no, they say no. But the properties are still selling. And on both of those deals, on one of them, we made about a $45,000 net profit. On the other one, we made a $50,000 net profit. Like, nice. Those were solid numbers in my market. And. And these are homes that sold under the $300,000 price point. One we sold for 261 we sold for 285. So these are just basic run of the mill cosmetic fix and flip projects. They're everywhere out there right now. They're safe. Because if you stay in that price point, worst case scenario, if it doesn't sell for what we want, we throw a tenant in it until the market's more reasonable and then we sell it later. Like, again, you have to understand what the market's giving you. Right? And so, like, I'm not doing what James is doing. Like, he can't go stick a tenant in a, you know, $10 million, $16 million, whatever he's going to sell that house for. Right. Like, that's not a risk I'm going to take in this market. But for the first time, homebuyer type homes, like, we're making great money flipping those.

[Dave Meyer]

Well, I think that's a great strategy. And one of the things that our audience here can take away is like this idea that not every part of the deal is going to make sense, especially because we're in this sort of transitional market. Like, we're talking about how prices might be flat in the interim. And that means that you might need to, or want to at least make some moves that might be okay right now, but are sort of setting you up for the future as market conditions change. That's sort of like one of the principles that we keep talking about here about the, the upside era that we're in is like, not everything's going to be perfect on day one. And I think Henry's strategy is sort of demonstrating how you can reduce risk. So you're not speculating, you know, you're not just going out and buying something hoping it will go up. Like, Henry's buying a deal on fundamental, but he has these opportunities to take these deals from good deals to Amazing deals over the lifetime of this hold.

[Henry Washington]

And one thing I want to point out, if you've wanted to get into real estate investing, right, if you look at the basic principles of investing in anything, it's buy low, sell high, right? And so like this is what we asked for, right? We asked for an opportunity to be able to buy when other people are scared. We've asked for an opportunity to be able to buy at lower price points. And the market is kind of setting us up to be able to do that right now it's uncomfortable. Comfortable, but it's supposed to be uncomfortable, right? Like if you're buying in this market, you just have to understand what you're buying and when you're buying it and what your potential exit strategies are in the event that things go sideways or things, or the, or the economy or something takes a turn that you weren't expecting. Like, that's why I'm, I'm really trying to stick to this under the median home price because if I have to pivot and stick a tenant in it, I can, if I have to fire, sale it and I bought it at 50 cents on the dollar and the market tanks 20%. Well, I got 30 room there to still fire sale that thing, right, and try to get it out of there, right? And so this is, this is the time that you've asked for. And so I want to buy right now and I want to see if I can hold what I can hold on to. And it's like if you can get through the next five years with your properties, I think you're going to look like a genius.

[Dave Meyer]

Kathy, tell me a little bit about rental property investing during this time. How are you going about it and thinking strategically how to maximize your portfolio these days?

[Kathy Fecky]

Yeah, I mean it just comes down to again, looking at the data and I'm glad you asked that because so much of the headline news we see is for people buying their primary residence. So they're not looking at things like cash flow like we are, or long term appreciation gain. So what we're looking at is prices are not rising as quickly as they have in the past few years. They're still going up, but more in a normal way like 3, 4, 5%. But when you as a buyer buy and hold investor, a rental property, are able to get a property at a lower price. And now just over the last few weeks, we're seeing mortgage rates down, your cash flow has increased. So again, this is good for us. We have more inventory to choose from, we have less competition even Though there's that. That inventory and the borrowing rates are down. So it's great.

[James Dainard]

I'm curious though, how do you think.

[Dave Meyer]

About cash flow right now? Because it's no secret, cash flow is harder to come by. And yes, like, rates might come down, but like, will you buy something that's not cash flowing? Are you looking for break even or sort of like, what's your threshold for cash flow these days for sort of the more buy and hold approach?

[Kathy Fecky]

You know, it's funny, I'm born and raised in California where people totally invest for cash flow, but it's the negative kind, you know, because California's never cash flowed. So cash flow or negative cash flow is something that I've seen people do. That strategy. I don't like that strategy. I won't do that unless I know I'm getting a property for such a good deal and I'm able to renovate it. And I know that over time it's going to go up in value maybe, but probably not. There's too many opportunities where you could at least break even in an area where it's kind of likely to appreciate. Like where I am right now in Park City, Utah, we're able to make our property break even and yet the values have gone up dramatically over the couple of years that we've owned it. So it's worth it to me. It's okay. I don't mind breaking even. I'm not really a cash flow player. I think of this cash flow alone, it's a little boring to me.

[Dave Meyer]

Well, I tend to agree with you, Kathy. If you guys have been listening to the show and me talking about this upside era and the way I've been looking at deals, it's pretty similar, Kathy, to what you're saying. Like, I needed to break even. And I'm talking not this, like fake break even where people just take their rent and subtract their mortgage payment. I'm talking about real break even. But then I'm just looking like, how is this going to perform over 5 years or 10 years? As long as it's going to carry itself, I can wait five years if it's going to be a great deal. I can wait 10 years if it's going to be a fantastic deal. As long as it's sort of carrying itself and there's relatively low risk on it. We do have to take one more quick break, but when we come back, I want all of your best advice for our audience and how they can take advantage of market conditions right now. Stick with us. We'll be right back listeners.

[James Dainard]

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[Dave Meyer]

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[Dave Meyer]

Welcome back to the BiggerPockets podcast. I'm here with James Dainard, Henry Washington and cat Kathy Fecky. We're talking about what feels to me like a buyer's market. And yes, there's risk in this market. There's risk in every single kind of market. But I'm seeing some opportunities. James, sounds like you're seeing a lot of opportunities. You know, not everyone can go out and buy a $6 million house, of course, but for our audience of people who are, you know, just getting started or have a modest portfolio, what do you think the big opportunities or some.

[James Dainard]

Some tactics that people should start employing.

[Dave Meyer]

To take advantage of, of these opportunities that you're seeing?

[James Dainard]

Well, to reference the $10 million house, it comes down to principles, right? Because, because I also, I'm also buying $220,000 trailers that we are fixing up and selling. Right? Because it doesn't matter for me what the price point is is the fundamental principles. And as you're going through a transitionary market, which we slowly are, we're going into a buyer's market, it has to have the same principles. And depending on the price point, if it has the principles, I will buy whether it's 200 grand or 6 million. And because it comes down to those principles and the principles that I always pay attention to as we're going into a transition is I want to know what's the month of supply in the market, but for the specific price point that I'm targeting. Because month of supply is data that can be stretched all different types of ways, I want to know what the absorption rate is for what I am selling. How many actives, how many pendings in that price point are moving. The one, that's $10 million. Guess what? There was zero inventory in that area for that. There was one and it sold quickly. So that's why I felt comfortable with that. How long am I going to hold onto it? And the other thing that I always like to pay attention to when you go into transitioning markets is I do not like weird if there's negative impacts. And weird, that is a reason for a buyer to move on.

[Dave Meyer]

What do you mean weird? Just like. Like a unique architectural layout. What does that mean?

[James Dainard]

Architectural layout can always be fixed. It just costs money. So I gotta buy that thing deeper. If it's weird laid out, I'm talking about if it backs up to a cemetery. If it, like I was just looking at a deal, I'm like, is that a cemetery in the backyard? No, thanks. You know, does it have a bad neighbor? Does it have lack of amenities that buyers want?

[Dave Meyer]

No yard, no parking, so no stretching.

[James Dainard]

No stretching. And that's where people get really hung up. And then you have to dig into this selling information. What is the average days on market? People reach out to me all the time and they go, hey, look, my flip's not selling. I'm like, well, what's your average days on market in the area? 50. What do you list it at right now? 32. Then relax, chill out.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah.

[James Dainard]

Like it's. You just have to build it into that performer. Right? And so really you have to dig into the specifics, but the specifics of what you're actually selling. Not all housing's the same. Not all price points are the same. There's different buyer demand in different markets. And if you really dig into those absorption rates, days on market, you can be prepared going in. Just avoid the weird. Weird is where you get clipped and you get hung out to dry.

[Kathy Fecky]

I don't know. I feel like I have to defend graveyards.

[Dave Meyer]

Defend the weird Kathy.

[Kathy Fecky]

I grew up with a graveyard in our backyard. We would jump the fence. Let me tell you, when you're young and you go in the graveyard at night, it's really fun for hide and seek.

[Dave Meyer]

Oh, you're braver than I am. That creepy creeps me out.

[Kathy Fecky]

And you know, it's so funny because the house I grew up in probably is like a $5 million house with a graveyard in the backyard. So you never know. I did want to clarify one thing from our conversation earlier because I can already see the messaging on the notes on YouTube of Kathy and Dave don't buy for cash flow. I want to really clarify that that only works in growth markets. You should never buy a house that breaks even in a linear market, in a market where prices don't go up very quick because you're just losing money in that scenario. But what Dave and I were saying is if we're, you know, if we're paying attention to where jobs are going, where factories are coming back, where there's reshoring happening, there's trillions of dollars of reshoring happening. If you get and buy real estate in those areas and you break even, knowing that there's a very good chance that the values are going to go up like we did again with our single family rental fund. We knew that the reshoring was happening with the chip manufacturing in northern Dallas and we bought little cheap homes around there which have nearly doubled in just a couple of years because we knew that growth was coming. So only do break even deals in growth markets. I just want to make that clear.

[Dave Meyer]

Yeah, that's a great point. I think that sort of goes to this recommendation I was going to make to people in this market. And you know, I don't, I don't really flip. And so I, I'm with Kathy on sort of this longer term approach. To me, I just try and find like a total return that makes sense to me. I look at the appreciation, I look at the cash flow and I add it all up. If there's a deal that's not going to appreciate but has exceptional cash flow, I consider it. If there is a deal that has only break even cash flow, I'd consider it. Like Cathie said, only if there's exceptional upside for appreciation growth. If you have different goals, you can put yourself on different ends of the spectrum. For me personally, like where I am in my career I'll take deals all over that spectrum. It's just what has the best value. And right now I'm seeing value at both ends of that spectrum. And so I encourage people to sort of look at it that way. I actually made a calculator. It's called the Total Return Calculator. You can download on BiggerPockets for free to sort of like look at this thing holistically. It helps you add up your appreciation, your cash flow, your tax benefits, your paying down of your loan, all those things together. I really recommend people look at that because as Kathy said, you could just focus on one thing. But personally, I recommend just sort of looking at the total package of benefit that you're getting from any real, real estate deal. What about you, Henry? What, what's your advice to people in this kind of market?

[Henry Washington]

This is the time to really pay attention to your fundamentals and stick to your fundamentals. So the, the first point I'm going to say is you have to master underwriting. And the reason you want to do that is so that you don't end up buying a deal that you can't get out of. Because if the market's tough, you're going to need to be able to pivot if something goes awry. So being able to purchase something that has two exit strategies is great protection because if one of your exit strategies doesn't work, you're able to do the other. So I really like buying houses right now that I can flip, but if I need to pivot and stick a tenant in it, I can, and it becomes a break even or maybe cash flow, even just a smidge, that's fine. I'm not losing money. I can hold that property until there's a more ideal time to sell, right? And so that means I need to buy that property at a deep enough discount to be able to stick a tenant in it and then refinance it and not lose my shirt on the refinance, right? So if I can do that, if I can run the numbers and know if I flip this house, I'll make thir, 20, 30, 40, 50 grand, or I can throw a tenant in it and refinance it and not have to throw a bunch of money at it and leave it sitting there minding its own business until it's a better time to sell. That's, that's a pretty safe investment. And then if you can sit there for a year or two, then you'll look like a genius, right? So protect yourself by understanding how to underwrite and Understanding what your offer prices need to be on these properties and then go make the offers.

[Dave Meyer]

It's so interesting. Basically all of our advice here is we're saying that it's kind of a buyer's market, that there's opportunity. But all of the advice was actually to be careful and actually to lower your risk, which is super important. Right. Because that's kind of the definition of a buyer's market. Right. Is that there you're, you're trying to get ahead of a trend because that's the best opportunity is once everyone on social media or in the news is saying it's great to buy real estate. It might be, but you've already missed the actual best time to buy real estate, which is during the transitionary time. And I actually think we might be in that transitionary time, but transitionary times carry risk. So I think it's interesting that all four of us basically said there are opportunities, don't sit on the sidelines, go look for things, but also try to find ways to take risk off the table. Because there is that risk, but there are ways to mitigate the risk and still set yourself up for some of those long term gains.

[James Dainard]

The one thing I'd like to say too, like in these transitionary markets is just looking at those data points is so important. So I know when to take on the risk and when not to. I'm taking on risk when I know I'm timing it well and it's going right into the sweet spot of the market. I will actually buy more aggressively that way. So there's one I just bought where I bought and it's below my expected return. But I can turn this house in four weeks, get it to market very quickly, and then every comp that I have all sold for 10% over list. There's a heavy, heavy buyer demand. Even though if you go in that same market and the price is a little bit more expensive, then there's less buyer demand. They're selling under list. And so just depending on what the data says, adjust your risk tolerance up or down. Use data and use math, not averages.

[Dave Meyer]

James, you are speaking my language. Data and math gives me that warm fuzzy feeling when we're talking about real estate.

[Henry Washington]

That was actually the second part of my answer. A, you need to know how to underwrite. B, you need to pay attention to the metrics in your market because you're going to see all these national headlines and they're going to sound scary. But what's happening in your market, Some of the metrics I Like to pay attention to are list price to sale price ratio. I want to look at that month over month. That's basically saying are things selling close to the price point they're, they're getting listed at? So around here, things are selling at about 97, 98% list price to sale price ratio, meaning that they're only, they're selling it maybe 1 to 2% less than they're listed for. Right. So that's a good sign. That's saying that things are selling and they're priced pretty correctly and that's like.

[Dave Meyer]

Normal just for everyone. Reference, like in a historical context, that's normally what a housing market does.

[Henry Washington]

If you're starting to see that number tick downward and things are selling for a lot less than they're getting listed for, that's an indicator that you need to pay attention to. It could be because housing prices are dropping or it could be because sellers still think that they can get something that they can right now. The other thing that I like to look at obviously is median days on market. So eliminating those outliers just to give myself an understanding of how long do I need to budget to hold a property for. So understanding what your median days on market is for a property, again, will help you not to panic. You know, when it's been 45 days and your house hasn't sold but your median days on market is 55 days. Right. It's not time to panic yet. And the other thing that I like to pay attention to is to understand how many homes do you need in your market to satisfy the demand in your market? Now that's something you're going to have to go and talk to a savvy real estate agent about. I know in my market we need somewhere close to 4500 homes on the market for it to satisfy the demand. And we're at half that right now. So that tells me that it's still a good time to be selling property because there's technically more demand than supply.

[Kathy Fecky]

Yeah. And my, my final thoughts would be be careful who you listen to. So this is just a little mini plug for biggerpockets, because there isn't really a forum like this where, where investors speak freely and you can ask questions and get answers from experienced investors versus a reporter who had 10 minutes to work on a story they really don't have any experience, you know, talking about. So no offense to reporters, I was one for years, but we had to report on things I didn't understand and he had to do it quickly. So try to limit the amount of information you get from those kinds of sites and go to real estate investor specific sites to get your to get the real data and information.

[Dave Meyer]

That's great advice. Well, Kathy, thank you for the plug. We appreciate it. That's the reason why you listen to this podcast or the podcast we're all on on the market as well. And yeah, obviously there's other good news sources out there too. Biggerpockets is, is unique. But I think Kathy's right, especially when you hear about housing news. A lot of it's first time home buyer oriented or it's very regional or it's very national and doesn't actually apply to your region. So just make sure to be very specific in your research and your analysis and not sort of just take the headlines for face value. I think that's great advice, Kathy. All right, well, thank you all so much for joining us for this episode of the Bigger Pockets podcast. I guess it's kind of like a crossover with on the Market, but we appreciate you all listening. For BiggerPockets, I'm Dave Meyer. They're James Daynard, Kathy Fecky, Henry Washington. Thank you guys for being here. Thank you for listening. We'll see you next next time.

[James Dainard]

Thank you all for listening to the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify or any other podcast platform. Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday and Friday. I'm the host and executive producer of.

[Dave Meyer]

The show, Dave Meyer.

[James Dainard]

The show is produced by Ian K. Copywriting is by Calico, content and editing is by Exodus Media. If you'd like to learn more about real estate investing or to sign up for our free newsletter, please visit www.the content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk. So use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. And remember, past performance is not indicative of future results. BiggerPockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential or other damages arising from a reliance on information presented in this podcast.