Podcast Summary

Podcast: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
Episode: Scott Trench’s $1,000,000 Bet on Real Estate (Update)
Host: Dave Meyer
Guest: Scott Trench (former CEO of BiggerPockets, current host of BiggerPockets Money Podcast)
Date: January 21, 2026

Overview

This episode revisits Scott Trench's bold decision one year ago to move $1 million from stocks into Denver real estate—a move he made under a bearish outlook for the stock market. Host Dave Meyer catches up with Scott to see how that wager played out, explores Scott’s post-CEO life, his current financial strategies, thoughts on the real estate and stock markets for 2026, and actionable advice for investors seeking financial freedom today.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Life & Projects Since Leaving as CEO

[01:42–04:15]

• Personal Focus: Scott’s recent months have centered on enjoying life (skiing, weightlifting, hiking) and hosting the BiggerPockets Money Podcast.
• DIY Financial Tools: Scott is building practical, user-friendly planning templates to help investors with complex financial situations.
  • “It’s very frustrating that you can’t even find like a basic spreadsheet to put in your financial position if you are somewhat sophisticated.” [02:28 – Scott]

2. Revisiting the $1 Million Real Estate Move

[04:15–09:06]

• Prediction “Disaster”: Scott admits last year’s bearish outlook on stocks didn’t pan out. The S&P 500 grew ~12–15% after he sold; he missed out on ~$100,000 in gains.
  • “Last year I put together a deck... ‘Irrational Exuberance 3.0’... and I’m like, the stock market... that’s crazy. I don’t understand that. I’m not taking a part in that...” [04:27 – Scott]
• What He Bought: Proceeds funded a quadplex (yielding ~6.5% cap rate) and a duplex (still stabilizing) in Denver, both cash deals.
• No Regrets: Despite underperforming the S&P for now, Scott values the monthly cash flow:
  • “Every single month I’m able to transfer five and a half, six thousand bucks... I spend it. Pays for my life.” [06:59 – Scott]

3. Financial Philosophy and Portfolio Strategy

[09:16–12:24, 17:00–19:43]

• Humility on Predictions: Scott is now “eating humble pie,” saying he’s stepping back from making macro forecasts except in real estate.
• Stock Market Skepticism: He still distrusts the S&P’s valuation, citing deeply elevated price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios, and questions how AI investment expenditures will play out in profits.
  • “I only have questions this year. And I’m sitting very comfortable with my diversified, safe, boring portfolio, large cash position, and my paid off rentals.” [11:55 – Scott]
• Portfolio Allocation:
  • 40–45% Denver real estate equity (multifamily)
  • 55–60% split among retirement accounts and a 2.5-year cash reserve; investments lean toward aggressive value stocks.
  • “I wrote a book called ‘Set for Life’... it’d be particularly embarrassing to go bankrupt after authoring such a book.” [18:18 – Scott]
• Diversification and Conservative Approach:
  • Now that he’s "won" financially, Scott prioritizes wealth preservation over maximal returns.

4. 2026 Market Outlook & Real Estate Analysis

[19:43–26:33]

• Real Estate “Slog”:
  • Main theme for next 2–3 years is “absorption”—the market absorbing a glut of new multifamily units delivered in 2024–2025.
  • Rent growth to be moderate: 3–4% rent increases in 2026, higher in subsequent years, but less than originally forecast due to muted demand.
• Demand-Side Factors:
  • Slower household formation, changes in immigration policy impacting population growth.
  • Skepticism about strong national rent growth, differing predictions between Dave and Scott:
    • Dave: “I think it’s going to stay close to flat, maybe 1 to 2%.” [23:19]
    • Scott: “No way. ... I’d say it’s going to be in the 3 to 4 range.” [24:02]
• Price Stagnation:
  • Both see little downside in prices; sellers aren’t pressured to sell due to fixed-rate debt structures and high percentage of free-and-clear ownership.
  • “I’m not seeing prices go down, I’m just seeing stuff not really selling. ... That’s the real problem here: nobody really needs to sell.” [25:39 – Scott]

5. Strategic Advice for Investors

[30:03–34:20]

• Cash Flow & Buy Boxes: In current conditions, focus on properties that cash flow or offer creative paths to make deals work, as negative leverage is a major threat.
  • “You really have got to wait, you’ve really got to hunt for those deals that don’t have that negative leverage if you’re going to use [market] debt.” [31:00 – Scott]
• House Hacking Limitations: Not as universally appealing as in the past, especially in expensive markets. For some, renting and investing elsewhere can be smarter.
• Choosing Markets: Opportunity remains, but it’s highly market-specific and may require creative approaches or patience.

6. The Value of Diversification and Uncertainty

[34:20–36:42]

• Sleep-Better-At-Night Test: With market outlooks opaque, Scott and Dave agree broad diversification and focusing on real estate makes sense even if returns lag.
  • “Diversification is the only way to go in this kind of economy. No one knows.” [34:20 – Dave]
• Interest Rates & Wildcards: Both acknowledge big unknowns: interest rate direction, AI’s true economic impact, and the possibility that “none of the old rules matter anymore.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Last year I put together a deck... called it Irrational Exuberance 3.0... S&P500 at all-time highs. ... That was what I did with those funds. ... And then I missed out on the 12% growth from February… That was like $100,000 loss…”
  [04:27 – Scott Trench]

• “Every single month I’m able to transfer five and a half, six thousand bucks... Pays for my life.”
  [06:59 – Scott Trench]

• “I only have questions this year. ... I’m sitting very comfortable with my diversified, safe, boring portfolio, large cash position, and my paid off rentals and I’ll probably miss out on something, but I just have no idea where it’s going to be…”
  [11:55 – Scott Trench]

• “For me the answer has been diversification and that’s maybe sleep better at night. But it certainly didn’t put More points on the board in 2025.”
  [34:18 – Scott Trench]

• “It just feels super confusing... I’ve always gravitated towards real estate... Defining a deal is harder than it used to be, but when you find one, like, I feel pretty good...”
  [34:20 – Dave Meyer]

Important Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:42] — Scott’s current life & Money Podcast focus
• [04:15 – 06:38] — Recap & honest assessment of Scott’s $1M real estate move
• [09:16] — Scott's updated stock market and crypto skepticism
• [17:00 – 19:43] — Detailed breakdown of Scott’s current portfolio allocation
• [20:00 – 24:10] — Scott’s 2026 rent/market growth predictions and debate on demand
• [24:10 – 26:33] — “The Great Stall” and why it's hard to find compelling deals
• [31:00] — Strategic advice on negative leverage and creative investing
• [34:20 – 36:42] — The case for diversification amid extreme uncertainty

Tone & Style

Candid, introspective, practical, and supportive—both hosts speak openly about mistakes, uncertainty, and the realities of wealth building. They avoid hype and encourage realistic, disciplined approaches for investors in today’s market.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Real estate and stocks both involve risk; no investment is a slam dunk right now.
• Higher monthly cash flow and diversification might be worth more than paper gains or chasing big returns.
• Market timing is nearly impossible—even "experts" can be off by six figures (or more).
• Being strategic, patient, and creative is essential as opportunities are market-specific and harder to uncover.
• Don’t be afraid to diversify, hold cash, and adapt goals to your life circumstances. Sleep well instead of only chasing returns.

For more resources, visit biggerpockets.com or check out Scott Trench on the BiggerPockets Money Podcast.