BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: Sellers Are Accepting Even Less | Jan. 2026 Housing Market Update
Host: Dave Meyer
Date: January 23, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth update on the U.S. housing market as of January 2026. Host Dave Meyer shares the latest market data, highlights significant regional shifts, and offers actionable advice for real estate investors navigating the continued "Great Stall." Meyer discusses rising buyer power, modest improvements in affordability, and notable investor optimism despite ongoing challenges. Insights from the BiggerPockets community reveal shifting strategies and underline the importance of negotiation, portfolio optimization, and patience for investors in the upcoming year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Demand Is Quietly Rising

[00:00–04:10]

• Contrary to the prevailing narrative, housing demand is actually up year-over-year, as measured by mortgage purchase applications.
• Dave notes:

  “Demand is up. Demand is actually up from where it was a year ago. The way we measure this is by looking at mortgage purchase applications… and it is up about 10% over last year.” (Dave, 02:32)

• Despite persistent high prices, sluggish sales, and mortgage uncertainty, the year-over-year increase in demand is a positive signal for market activity.
• 2025 saw only 4.1 million home sales — substantially below “normal” levels and about half of COVID era peaks, but this upward trend in activity may continue.

2. Inventory: Still Tight, But Moderating

[04:11–06:08]

• Inventory is up 4% year-over-year, but fears of a "market crash" due to inventory glut are unfounded; this rate of increase is lower than recent years.
• Dave clarifies:

  “All those people saying, ‘Oh my god, inventory is growing like crazy.’ Not really. It’s actually going up less than I would personally like to see.” (Dave, 05:08)

• The key driver? New listings have dropped to their lowest point in two years, indicating that potential sellers are opting to stay put rather than accept buyer-driven terms.

3. The Emergence of a Buyer’s Market

[06:08–08:40]

• According to Redfin, sellers have the least leverage since at least 2013, marking this as the “strongest buyer’s market on record” (within modern data).
• Many sellers, discouraged by current market conditions, are choosing not to list their homes.
• With supply and demand relatively balanced, national housing prices were essentially flat in 2025, increasing only 0.5% year-over-year.
• Dave recalls his accurate forecast:

  “I said in the beginning of last year… that we were probably going to have a pretty flat market, and that’s exactly what happened.” (Dave, 07:54)

4. Major Regional Winners and Losers

[08:41–10:45]

• Regional disparities have grown:
  • Winners: Detroit (+9%), Newark NJ (+8%), Warren MI (+8%), New York City (+5%), Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and parts of Wisconsin (all above inflation).
  • Losers: Dallas (now the biggest drop at –8%), Oakland CA (–6%), Austin TX (–4%), San Jose and Miami (also declining).
• The weakest markets are concentrated in California, Florida, and Texas.

5. Longer Days on Market & More Negotiating Power

[10:46–11:53]

• Homes now spend an average of 60 days on market—the longest in over a decade.

  “If you’re seeing homes sit on the market longer, that is an invitation for you to bid below asking price.” (Dave, 11:22)

• The average home is selling for 2% below list price—so investors should aim even lower, focusing on buying below comps rather than just list price.

6. Outlook for 2026: The Role of Mortgage Rates

[14:49–18:50]

• Affordability remains the core issue, shaped primarily by mortgage rates.
• 2026 began with rates around 6.25%, a full percentage point below last year—making affordability “a little bit better.”

  “Affordability got better. Prices were flat, wages went up, mortgage rates went down modestly.” (Dave, 15:33)

• Temporary dip: Rates briefly touched 5.99% due to the Trump administration’s $200B mortgage-backed security purchase via Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac—but are back to 6.2%.
• Dave’s forecast: “The range is going to be 5.5 to 6.5 [percent], average around 6.1%... It’s going to be volatile, but that’s where my average is.” (Dave, 17:36)
• Affordability will improve modestly, but “the days of COVID-era conditions or 2010 affordability are not coming back soon.”

7. No Evidence of an Imminent Market Crash

[18:51–21:38]

• Delinquencies (late mortgage payments) decreased last month, both at 30 and 90 days.

  “Delinquencies, they went down last month, both for 30 days and 90 days.” (Dave, 19:27)

• Foreclosures are up 20% year over year (due to expired moratoriums) but remain 40% below pre-pandemic levels.
• Dave stresses: “There is no forced selling, we are seeing new listings at the lowest point it’s been in two years and we are seeing delinquencies down… There is no evidence of a market crash.” (Dave, 20:41)

8. BiggerPockets Community Sentiment & Strategies

[24:51–31:20]

• Investor sentiment: Optimism is up for 2026 as conditions are more predictable after a tough, flat 2025.

  “The big headline from the data is: investors are optimistic... for investors, people are feeling… that conditions are improving.” (Dave, 25:03)

• What’s driving optimism? Three main opportunities:
  • Slightly lower mortgage rates
  • Better ability to negotiate
  • Improved deal flow (more inventory/options)
• Advice:

  “If you were analyzing three deals a week last year, do eight right now. I promise you there’s more stuff for you to look at…” (Dave, 28:28)

• Top strategies among listeners:
  • Long term rentals (including BRRRR, rent by the room, house hacking)
  • Flipping (now less popular than rentals)
  • Midterm and short-term rentals are declining in popularity
• Dave’s core advice:

  “It’s time to buy great assets that you want to hold on to forever.” (Dave, 29:55)

9. The Biggest Investor Challenge: Rising Expenses

[31:21–33:30]

• Investors cite rising expenses (taxes, insurance, maintenance) as the top challenge, more so than deal flow or lack of capital.
• Dave’s recommendation:

  “If you have not done this yet, take some time and reanalyze your deals… Are your expenses growing faster than your rent? Is your return on equity increasing or decreasing?” (Dave, 32:40)

• Portfolio optimization (renovations, adding ADUs, selling underperformers) is suggested as both a necessity and an opportunity.

10. Community Action Plans for 2026

[33:30–34:54]

• Nearly 60% of the BiggerPockets community plans to grow their portfolios in 2026; 25% focus on optimizing existing holdings, and only 4% plan to sell.
• Closing advice:

  “You don’t have to go and transact. It’s all about the mindset of putting yourself in a position to grow your portfolio long-term… Keep listening, keep learning, and keep putting yourself in a position so you can strike when the time is right for you.” (Dave, 34:14)

Memorable Quotes

• “Demand is actually up from where it was a year ago… That’s a good thing.” (02:32)
• “Inventory is up, but it’s only up 4% year over year… Not really the level where we have to be concerned about a crash.” (05:08)
• “This is the strongest buyer’s market on record… Redfin data goes back to 2013.” (06:18)
• “We had a flat year in the housing market in 2025. This is part of the thesis I’ve had about being in the Great Stall.” (07:54)
• “Dallas now takes the spot for the biggest declines in pricing in the country at –8% year over year…” (09:24)
• “The typical home spent 60 days on market. That is the longest it has taken to sell a home in more than a decade.” (10:56)
• “You should be offering at most 98% of what the list price is. And that’s average… Think about how to get even more equity out of this deal.” (11:36)
• “Mortgage rates are our big predictor of the market this year… We need something to get better in terms of affordability.” (14:54)
• “Delinquencies across the board… went down last month, both for 30 days and 90 days.” (19:27)
• “There is no forced selling… there is no evidence of a market crash.” (20:41)
• “If you were analyzing three deals a week last year, do eight right now.” (28:28)
• “Take some time and reanalyze your deals… Are they growing faster than your rent? Is your return on equity increasing or decreasing?” (32:40)
• “Only 4% are planning to sell. So… a lot of noise in media… but it’s just a change of tactics.” (33:39)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–04:10 – Demand side: surprising uptick in purchase applications
• 04:11–06:08 – Inventory analysis: why supply is rising slowly
• 06:08–08:40 – Seller reluctance; Buyer’s market confirmed by Redfin data
• 08:41–10:45 – Regional housing market performance: winners and losers
• 10:46–11:53 – Negotiation power: days on market, average selling price vs. list
• 14:49–18:50 – Mortgage rates’ role in 2026 outlook; forecast range
• 18:51–21:38 – Foreclosures/delinquencies show no crash risk
• 24:51–31:20 – BiggerPockets investor sentiment & tactical steps for 2026
• 31:21–33:30 – Investor challenges: expense management & optimization
• 33:30–34:54 – Community 2026 action plans & closing advice

Final Takeaways

• Patience and negotiation are critical in a flat, stalled market. Investors have more leverage as properties linger on the market.
• Focus on buying long-term, high-quality assets; speculative or short-term strategies are out of favor.
• Portfolio optimization—re-analyzing expenses and performance—is vital in light of rising costs.
• Though challenges remain, opportunities exist for those willing to adapt tactics. The real estate investing community remains broadly optimistic heading into 2026.