BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

September 2025 Housing Market Update: Mild Correction, Any Signs of a Crash?

Host: Dave Meyer
Date: September 26, 2025

Episode Overview

In this month’s "Housing Market Update," Dave Meyer provides a detailed breakdown of national and regional housing price trends as 2025 draws to a close. Amid a market-wide correction, Dave challenges crash narratives with data-driven insights on home prices, inventory, mortgage delinquencies, and the overall health of the American homeowner. The episode features a practical analysis for real estate investors seeking opportunities (and avoiding risks) in a buyer-tilted market, ending with actionable takeaways for those considering entering or expanding in real estate.

Main Discussion & Insights

1. National Home Price Trends and Correction Status

Timestamp: 00:18–04:20

• Dave confirms the market is in a correction, with national nominal price growth hovering between +1% and -1%.
  • Key clarifier: These are not inflation-adjusted (real) prices—when factoring ~3% inflation, homeowners are seeing slight losses in real terms.
  • “I would categorize that as a very mild correction. This isn’t a crash yet…” (Dave Meyer, 02:08)
• Regional disparities persist:
  • Midwest and Northeast mostly retain positive price growth, albeit at slowing rates (e.g., Milwaukee drops from +8% to +3% YoY).
  • West Coast, parts of the Southeast, Texas, and especially Florida are seeing actual price declines.

2. Buyers’ Market Indicators

Timestamp: 04:21–07:33

• Sale-to-list price ratios have dropped below 99% nationally (per Redfin), meaning sellers are generally accepting below-list-price offers.
  • “Right now, according to Redfin, the average sale to list percentage or ratio has dropped to below 99%... on average, sellers are not getting their list price.” (Dave Meyer, 06:16)
• Investors are encouraged to offer below list price and negotiate tougher, as leverage has shifted toward buyers.

3. Market Forecasts & Predictions

Timestamp: 07:34–13:34

• Dave summarizes predictions from top industry data sources:
  • Zillow: –1% nominal by end of 2025.
  • Case Shiller (Reuters): +2.1% for 2025, +1.3% for 2026.
  • CoreLogic: +1.4% YOY.
  • Goldman Sachs and Realtor.com provide higher, but older, figures.
• Dave’s own projection: National prices will remain largely flat, within ±2–3%, for the rest of 2025. No significant recovery or crash is expected without drastic shifts in inventory or affordability.
  • “My forecast for the remainder of the year is that we are going to remain relatively flat. ... The general vibe is going to be pretty much flat.” (Dave Meyer, 22:16)

4. Inventory and New Listing Dynamics

Timestamp: 13:35–21:40

• Inventory has trended upward since 2022, now at 1.5 million (still ~16% below pre-pandemic average).
• Notable: Inventory actually fell from July to August (seasonally adjusted), contradicting crash narratives and signaling possible stabilization.
  • “Inventory actually fell from July to August according to Redfin. And that should make you pause..." (Dave Meyer, 16:07)
• New listings are also declining—a sign that homeowners are hesitant to sell amid mild corrections, not that they are desperate.
• Regional inventory shifts:
  • Massive inventory spikes in places like Lakeland, FL (+60% vs. pre-pandemic), Austin, TX (+30%), and Denver (+27%)—these markets are more at risk of price declines.
  • Conversely, Providence, RI and Hartford, CT remain 60% below pre-pandemic levels, lowering their correction risk.

5. Mortgage Rates & Affordability

Timestamp: 21:41–23:43

• Mortgage rates remain in the 6.25%–6.75% range; expectations for rates to fall below 6% are low for 2025, despite possible Fed cuts.
  • “I don't think it's going to move mortgage rates that much ... I'd be pretty surprised if it goes below 6% by the end of this year.” (Dave Meyer, 23:04)

6. Homeowner Health: Delinquencies, Foreclosures, and Equity

Timestamp: 23:44–30:15

• Delinquencies:
  • Delinquency rate at just 3.5%—lower than pre-pandemic levels (4% in 2019).
  • FHA and VA loans see localized increases (up to ~10%), but they constitute only 15% of all mortgages.
  • “Foreclosures really are still below pre pandemic levels and delinquency still below pre pandemic levels.” (Dave Meyer, 25:48)
• Equity:
  • U.S. homeowners hold $17 trillion in equity (record high); “tappable equity” stands at $11.5 trillion.
  • Only ~1% of mortgages are “underwater.”
  • “The aggregate amount of equity that the US homeowners have is $17 trillion, which is an all-time high.” (Dave Meyer, 28:15)
• Conclusion: Homeowner financial health is strong—forcing sales or a wave of foreclosures is highly unlikely unless unemployment dramatically spikes.

7. Investor Advice: Opportunities & Risks in a Correction

Timestamp: 30:16–End

• Current Market Advantages:
  • Better deals are available than in recent years; buyers have more negotiation power.
  • Most investors, especially "long-term buy & hold," will find more attractive entry points.
  • “The average deal ... is better than it has been probably since 2021 or 2022.” (Dave Meyer, 31:15)
• Cautions:
  • Patience and discipline are essential—market will have “junk deals.”
  • Short-term flips (1–2 years) are riskier; ensure deals also make sense as rentals if they can’t be sold quickly.
• Bright Spot:
  • Rent growth and cash flow prospects are projected to improve into 2026 as the multifamily supply glut eases and prices remain flat.
  • "I believe that cash flow prospects are going to improve starting in 2026." (Dave Meyer, 33:24)
• Actionable Tips:
  • Investors should be persistent, negotiate below list, focus on quality, and maintain a long-term perspective.
  • “Be patient and negotiate because you can. We are seeing buyers regain the power in the housing market for the first time in a long time...” (Dave Meyer, 35:14)

Notable Quotes

• “This isn’t a crash yet … It is certainly not happening in every region.” (02:08)
• “Right now … the average sale to list percentage or ratio has dropped below 99%... buyers have regained power.” (06:16)
• “Inventory actually fell from July to August according to Redfin… that should make you pause.” (16:07)
• “Foreclosures really are still below pre pandemic levels and delinquency still below pre pandemic levels.” (25:48)
• “The aggregate amount of equity that US homeowners have is $17 trillion, which is an all-time high.” (28:15)
• “The average deal that I am seeing … is better than it has been probably since 2021 or 2022.” (31:15)
• “Be patient and negotiate because you can.” (35:14)

Episode Timeline (Timestamps)

• 00:18–04:20: National/Regional Home Price Review & Correction Discussion
• 04:21–07:33: Buyer’s Market Indicators & Sale-to-List Ratio Shift
• 07:34–13:34: Price Forecasts from Zillow, Case Shiller, CoreLogic; Dave’s 2025/26 Predictions
• 13:35–21:40: Inventory Trends, Regional Inventory Rises & Stabilization
• 21:41–23:43: Mortgage Rate Outlook, Affordability Impacts
• 23:44–30:15: Homeowner Health: Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Equity Data
• 30:16–End: Investor Strategy – Risks, Opportunities, and Practical Advice

Conclusion

Dave Meyer delivers a thorough analysis debunking crash narratives and equipping investors with vital market data: a mild correction is underway, the market is now favoring buyers, and homeowner health remains robust. Thus, while risks persist, disciplined long-term investors can find improved opportunities—especially as price stagnation and rising rents are likely to boost cash flow starting in 2026.

Contact:
Dave Meyer invites questions via BiggerPockets or his Instagram @thedatadeli.
For more information, visit biggerpockets.com

(This summary omits advertisements, intros/outros, and focuses solely on the episode’s substantive content.)