BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast: Episode Summary

Episode Title: Should I Buy a House Now or Wait Until 2026?
Host: Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate at BiggerPockets
Release Date: June 6, 2025

In this insightful episode of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, Dave Meyer delves into one of the most pressing questions for real estate investors today: "Should I buy a house now or wait until 2026?" Through a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, expert forecasts, and investment strategies, Dave equips listeners with the knowledge to make informed decisions about their real estate investments.

1. Introduction to the Market Timing Debate (00:00)

Dave Meyer opens the episode by addressing the perennial debate in real estate investing—market timing. He questions whether investors should aim to "buy low and sell high," emphasizing the allure and challenges of this strategy.

"The idea of timing the market is pretty appealing, right? Who doesn't want to buy low and sell high?" (00:45)

Meyer acknowledges the difficulty professionals face in accurately predicting market movements, highlighting the inherent uncertainties involved.

2. Current Housing Market Conditions (02:30)

Dave provides an overview of the current state of the housing market as of May 2025. He notes that while national home prices are still on the rise, the growth rate is decelerating.

"Prices on a national level as of today are still up, but the growth rate is slowing and it keeps coming down." (03:15)

This slowdown has raised questions among investors about the optimal timing for purchasing properties.

3. Expert Forecasts from Zillow and Redfin (04:10)

Delving into expert opinions, Dave references updated forecasts from Zillow and Redfin, both projecting a slight decline in home prices by the end of the year.

"Zillow is saying that they're expecting prices to be down about 2% by the end of the year. Redfin is saying 1% by the end of the year." (05:00)

He underscores that while these projections suggest a softening market, the exact trajectory remains uncertain.

4. Challenges in Timing the Market (05:50)

Meyer reflects on historical market behavior, particularly referencing the Great Recession, to illustrate the unpredictability of market bottoms.

"If I asked you right now, when the market bottomed, I think a lot of people would say 2009 because I think that's when the recession officially ended. But it was actually not until 2013 until the market officially bottomed in terms of housing prices." (06:20)

He emphasizes the risk of waiting indefinitely for the "perfect" market bottom, which could result in missed opportunities.

5. Scenario Analysis for Future Market Conditions (06:50)

Exploring potential future scenarios, Dave outlines two primary possibilities:

• Scenario 1: Continued economic growth without a rate drop or the onset of a recession, leading to sustained high rates and low affordability, resulting in modest price declines over the next one to two years.

• Scenario 2: A recession within the next six months accompanied by low inflation and decreasing rates, potentially setting the stage for a market bottom in winter 2026 and subsequent growth in 2026 and 2027.

"Sometimes timing the market and predicting the future is easy. Right now it definitely is not." (07:00)

6. Introduction to Dollar Cost Averaging (10:31)

After a brief advertisement break, Dave introduces the concept of dollar cost averaging (DCA) as a strategic approach to mitigate the challenges of market timing.

"Dollar cost averaging, if you haven't heard of this, it's this concept that comes from the stock market. But the basic idea is that you continue to buy at regular intervals no matter what's going on in the market." (11:10)

He explains that DCA involves making consistent investment contributions over time, regardless of market fluctuations, thereby averaging out purchase prices and reducing the impact of volatility.

7. Applying Dollar Cost Averaging to Real Estate (12:00)

Dave elucidates how DCA can be adapted to the real estate market, despite the higher capital requirements compared to stock investments.

"An example of this is maybe you buy a rental property every three years. Maybe that's how long it takes you to save up money. And if you have more money, you might just say, I'm going to buy one rental property per year." (13:30)

He outlines three primary methods for implementing DCA in real estate:

1. Time-Based Approach: Purchasing properties at regular intervals (e.g., annually).
2. Affordability-Based Approach: Buying when sufficient capital is available and a suitable deal is identified.
3. Opportunity-Based Approach: Investing whenever a deal meets predefined criteria, leveraging available capital.

8. Combining Strategies: Market Understanding and Dollar Cost Averaging (17:00)

Meyer discusses how integrating market analysis with DCA can optimize investment outcomes. By staying informed about market conditions, investors can adjust their DCA strategies to target specific investment "upsides" based on current trends.

"The concept of dollar cost averaging was really invented in the stock market and equities trading where buying can be more systematic... But you can't just say I'm going to buy any property this year. You have to buy a property that meets your criteria." (15:45)

He emphasizes setting clear investment criteria to ensure that each property purchase aligns with long-term investment goals, even as market conditions evolve.

9. Dave's Personal Investing Strategies (19:00)

Sharing his personal approach, Dave highlights his commitment to consistent investing while adapting to market dynamics. He provides examples of how he adjusts his investment focus based on current market conditions, such as favoring walk-in equity deals during a buyer's market.

"The property I'm buying today, I'm buying it for 10, 15% lower than what it probably would have sold for two or three months ago." (20:00)

Additionally, Dave outlines his investment criteria, including requirements for positive cash flow within the first year, a minimum 10% average annual return, strong market fundamentals, and multiple growth "upsides."

10. Final Thoughts and Recommendations (22:30)

In conclusion, Dave advocates for a balanced approach that combines market awareness with consistent investment strategies like DCA. He encourages investors to remain proactive, adjust strategies based on data-driven insights, and prioritize long-term growth over short-term market fluctuations.

"I still want to be transacting at a regular interval because that allows me to hitch my wagon to the long term appreciation that has proven to be true over centuries in the United States." (21:50)

Dave invites listeners to engage with him via BiggerPockets platforms and shares his enthusiasm for ongoing learning and adaptation in the dynamic real estate landscape.

Key Takeaways

• Market Timing is Challenging: Accurately predicting market peaks and troughs is difficult, even for seasoned professionals.

• Expert Forecasts Indicate Softening Prices: Reputable sources like Zillow and Redfin project a slight decline in home prices by the end of 2025.

• Dollar Cost Averaging as a Mitigation Strategy: Implementing DCA in real estate through regular, disciplined investments can help average out purchase prices and reduce the impact of market volatility.

• Set Clear Investment Criteria: Establishing and adhering to specific investment criteria ensures that each property aligns with long-term financial goals.

• Adaptability is Crucial: Combining market insights with consistent investment strategies allows investors to navigate changing market conditions effectively.

Notable Quotes

• "The idea of timing the market is pretty appealing, right? Who doesn't want to buy low and sell high?" – Dave Meyer (00:45)

• "If I asked you right now, when the market bottomed, I think a lot of people would say 2009... But it was actually not until 2013 until the market officially bottomed in terms of housing prices." – Dave Meyer (06:20)

• "Dollar cost averaging simplifies the investing process and reduces the stress of trying to time the market perfectly." – Dave Meyer (11:10)

• "I still want to be transacting at a regular interval because that allows me to hitch my wagon to the long term appreciation that has proven to be true over centuries in the United States." – Dave Meyer (21:50)

This episode of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast serves as a valuable resource for both novice and seasoned investors, offering actionable strategies and thoughtful analysis to navigate the complexities of the current housing market.