BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: The Biggest Homebuyer Discounts in Over 12 Years | Feb. 2026 Update

Host: Dave Meyer
Date: February 20, 2026

Episode Overview

In this market update, Dave Meyer, Chief Investment Officer at BiggerPockets, dives into the remarkable market shift favoring homebuyers in early 2026. With the biggest discounts seen in 12+ years and improving affordability, Dave analyzes where the best deals are, what inventory and mortgage trends mean for investors, and highlights both opportunity and risk in today’s market. Practical, data-driven advice is provided for deploying winning strategies during the current “great stall” period of the market.

Main Themes and Topics

1. The Shift to a True Buyer's Market

• Market conditions: Homebuyers/investors are currently able to negotiate the steepest discounts since tracking began over a decade ago.
• Data-backed: Actual figures reveal the trend is not just anecdotal; significant price reductions are observable across major sources like Redfin and Zillow.

Quote:
"The full on buyer's market is coming for real estate right now. Home buyers are seeing the biggest discounts in more than 12 years. And this is what we've all been waiting for." — Dave Meyer [00:01]

2. Home Price and Affordability Trends

• Price Growth: National home prices are up just about 1% YoY—below wage growth and inflation, aiding in improved affordability.
• Affordability:
  • Mortgage payments are down 8.5% YOY (per Zillow's Jan 2026 report).
  • Typical buyers now enjoy significant monthly savings.

Quote:
"The typical monthly mortgage payment is now 8 and a half percent lower than it was a year ago. That's a lot." — Dave Meyer [02:21]

3. Biggest Discounts in Over a Decade

• General Discounts: Average buyers now secure a 3.8% discount off list price (approx. $16,000 on a $400k home).
• Deep Discounts: Motivated sellers and skilled negotiators are getting almost 8% below list (over $32,000+).
• Regional Highlights:
  • Florida & Texas: 10%+ discounts.
  • Midwest/Northeast: Still 3–5% off, even in hot markets like Milwaukee and Indianapolis.

Quote:
"For people who negotiate below list...they're actually getting discounts of almost 8% off list price. Or if you factor in the average home price, that's more than $32,000." — Dave Meyer [04:21]

• Tactical Advice:
  • Always offer below list price and, crucially, below market comps to maximize equity and ensure safety in a buyer’s market.

4. Current Market Weakness: Sales Volume

• Low Sales:
  • 3.9 million home sales pace—down from prior years, and far short of “normal” (5–5.5 million).
• Reasons for Lag:
  • Poor consumer sentiment due to economic worries.
  • Recent extreme weather events suppressed January activity—expecting some rebound in February.

Quote:
"We're at 3.9 right now, so we definitely have a ways to go." — Dave Meyer [07:15]

5. The "Great Stall" Market

• Definition:
  • Prices flat/flattish, mortgage rates easing slightly, wages rising.
  • Slow path back to affordability, but overall stable.
• Outlook:
  • Expect continued stability rather than rapid appreciation or deep correction.

Quote:
"The most likely course it's going to take is what I call the great stall. Basically, we're going to see housing prices be a little bit flat, mortgage rates come down a little bit, wages go up, and affordability slowly improves." — Dave Meyer [08:25]

6. Deep Dive: Inventory Update (Post-Ad Break) [11:25]

• National Trend:
  • Inventory up 10% YOY nationwide—a clear move toward a softer market.
• Historic Context:
  • Still 18% below Jan 2019 “normal” levels nationally.
• Regional Trends:
  • Midwest/Northeast: Inventory still deeply constrained vs. 2019 (some areas 50–80% lower).
  • Southwest, certain cities: Inventory spikes (San Antonio +52%, Florida +60%, Denver +33%).
  • San Francisco: Inventory falling (-6%) with growing prices (AI boom effect).
  • Seattle: Inventory up 30%, prices flat or slightly declining.

Quote:
"If inventory is climbing fast, that means better deals and bigger discounts. But it also means prices could drop, right? ... That's how a buyer's market works." — Dave Meyer [13:36]

• Investor Guidance:
  • For high-inventory/rising markets: Seek bigger discounts, underwrite for little/no appreciation.
  • For low-inventory/falling markets: Compete harder, anticipate appreciation, but expect fewer deals.

7. Mortgage Rate Update and Short-Term Outlook [16:29]

• Current Rate:
  • 6.1% for a 30-year fixed—down a full point from last year.
• Forecast:
  • Unlikely to shift much more in 2026 (“between 5.5% and 6.5%”).
  • Stable rates allow for reliable underwriting; not expecting material improvements unless major economic change occurs.
  • Stable but relatively high rates help prevent overheating and make price declines more sustainable for affordability.

Quote:
"Stability breeds the right conditions for making good deals, for good underwriting... I'm relatively happy that mortgage rates aren't swinging wildly anymore." — Dave Meyer [17:51]

8. February Risk Report: Will Buyer’s Market Tip to a Crash? [23:16]

• Crash Risk?:
  • To see a true crash: Need either a collapse in demand or a huge surge in supply.
  • Current data:
    • Demand: Stable (albeit low).
    • Supply: Also stable, with new listings down 2% YOY (no signs of forced selling surge).
• Foreclosure Data:
  • Mortgage delinquency transitions at 1%—in line with pre-pandemic norms.
  • No spike in unemployment or mass hardship to drive forced selling.
• Bottom Line:
  • Buyer’s market offers more deals, but crash risk remains low.

Quote:
"They are right in line with historic norms. Could that change if unemployment spikes to 10%? Yeah... but employment... is relatively low right now. It's at 4.3%. ... The risk of a crash remains very low." — Dave Meyer [25:20]

9. Takeaways and Action Steps for Investors [27:02]

• Opportunities:
  • Deals not seen in 3–4 years are re-appearing.
  • Even in hot markets, inventory is rising—more options.
  • Stable conditions make underwriting easier and less risky.
• Strategic Guidance:
  • Patiently search, negotiate, and buy below both list and comp prices.
  • Be aware of overpricing—stay selective and disciplined.
  • Keep monitoring local trends; avoid assuming national data applies everywhere.
• Sentiment:
  • Growing optimism among active investors; "people excited for the first time in a while."

Quote:
"Get out there, look for deals, negotiate, be patient, buy under market comps. These are the keys to finding great deals right now. And I assure you those deals are here and more are coming." — Dave Meyer [28:37]

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |-----------|-------------| | 00:01 | Dave’s intro: “Buyer’s market is coming—biggest discounts in 12 years” | | 02:21 | Mortgage payments down 8.5% (Zillow) | | 04:21 | Redfin: Buyers getting up to 8% off list price | | 07:15 | Sales volume struggles—down to 3.9M | | 08:25 | 2026 outlook: “The great stall” | | 11:25 | Inventory analysis (regional breakdowns) | | 16:29 | Mortgage rate update (6.1%, flat forecast) | | 17:51 | Importance of rate stability for investors | | 23:16 | Risk report—crash not imminent; delinquency data | | 25:20 | Foreclosure lines not signaling distress | | 27:02 | Takeaways: more deals, patient negotiation, optimism returns | | 28:37 | "Get out there, look for deals..." |

Notable Quotes

• “The full on buyer's market is coming for real estate right now. Home buyers are seeing the biggest discounts in more than 12 years.” — Dave Meyer [00:01]

• “The benefit of a buyer's market... are discounts. And that's something I will definitely be taking advantage of.” — Dave Meyer [04:02]

• “The most likely course it's going to take is what I call the great stall. ... Affordability slowly improves.” — Dave Meyer [08:25]

• “Stability breeds the right conditions for making good deals, for good underwriting.” — Dave Meyer [17:51]

• “The risk of a crash remains very low.” — Dave Meyer [25:20]

• "Get out there, look for deals, negotiate, be patient, buy under market comps. ... Those deals are here and more are coming." — Dave Meyer [28:37]

Final Summary

Dave Meyer paints a picture of a market strongly siding with buyers: discounts on the table, monthly payments falling, and inventory trends offering more opportunities—especially for those ready to negotiate and do the work. He emphasizes patience, local research, and smart underwriting, supported by stable (if not especially low) rates. Despite market softness and slow sales, there’s little evidence of an imminent crash. Instead, for well-prepared investors, this is a rare and promising entry window.