Dave Meyer (17:49)
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So far what we talked about is adopting a mindset of a funnel where you start with a lot of prospects. I said like a hundred deals, you narrow that down to 20 that you're to going think past the sniff test and you're going to do a deeper dive on. And as I shared, the new bigger deals tool is a great way from not having to do that hundred and just being able to find 20 good deals that meet your buy box, meet your criteria right off the bat so that you can move more quickly into the next stage, which was the underwriting or deal analysis phase. Now the difference between the previous stage and this next one may not seem obvious, but let me just explain it a little bit here. So so in the first stage I was just trying to make sure that using some rules of thumbs and general ideas about what expenses and rent were going to be that it's worth my time to dig deeper on. But that is not enough to actually make an investment. So what you need to do next is shore up your assumptions. Because in our bigger deals tool or any estimator that you might use, or if you go to a property and just like sort of do some back of the envelope math that is really helpful, you need to do that to not waste your own time, but you need to really get clear about the assumptions before you move on to offering on a property and ultimately buying anything. So the first thing I would do here is focus on your rent and get as accurate a rent estimate as possible. Now we have tools on biggerpockets that help you estimate that you can use a rent estimator. We have that in the bigger deals. But I would go one step further. Before you buy anything and talk to people in your area area. I think that's really important. If you have a property manager or you're thinking about working with a property manager, call them, ask them what they think that they can rent for. Go on a listing platform like Apartments.com or Zillow and see what similar cops are renting for in your area. Or better yet, I mean, if you know people who are renters in that neighborhood, call them and ask them what they are paying for rent and if they think the property that you're considering buying is a reasonable computer. Because so much of your ultimate returns for real estate are going to be based on that initial rent and how high you can get it. And that's the first thing I would do in this next stage. And to be clear, I would start doing this for all 20 of my prospects. But I would just do this one at a time. So start with one property, really get good at figuring out what that rent is and then move on to your assumptions about expenses. Now, some expenses are really easy to estimate, like taxes, for example. That's public knowledge. That's usually on a listing. And you can just find that pretty easily. Insurance is usually easy to guess, but at this stage, you may want to call an insurance agent and see what a property in your area, in this neighborhood, this size, this replacement cost is going to cost to insure, because those are going to be a lot of your big expenses. If you know what your interest rate on your mortgage is going to be, you know, your taxes and you know, your insurance costs, that's going to be a lot of your expenses. But the next stage actually is sort of one of the hardest parts and really just takes some practice and experience. And that's estimating some of the variable costs, the ones that aren't the same every year, every month. And these are things like repairs and maintenance, vacancy capital expenditures. If you're going to try and get good at something in this analysis process, that's one of the key areas where people really should focus. Because getting good at that is going to help you throughout the entirety of your real estate investing career. Because I'm sure you can imagine if you go on and find some deals that, you know, that first deal that I was looking at just now was recently renovated. So my expenses are probably going to be a little bit lower. I'll probably pay more for that property because it's already been renovated. But my repairs and capex and maintenance costs are probably Going to be lower. How much lower is hard to say. You need to sort of talk to other investors. Maybe if you're a homeowner, a renter, you can talk to your landlord or you can make comps based on your own property. But I find that the easiest way to do this is talking to other investors. Whether it's on BiggerPockets.com, you could do this for free on the forums or, or a local meetup. They'll give you a good sense of how much they keep in reserve for these types of expenses. Whether you have an A class property, a B class property, or a C class property. And if you don't know what that means, A class is like really nice property, recently renovated, probably doesn't have high repair costs. B class is kind of in the middle. And then C class is a property that's going to need some work and will probably have higher expenses. Once you've done all these things, once you've sort of shored up your rent estimations, you know what your borrowing costs are going to be for your mortgage. You feel confident about your variable expenses. That's when you really do the underwriting. So you can go to biggerpockets.com calculators and use our rental property calculator. Put the numbers in there and that's where you'll get the really detailed output about what your investment will look like, not just in year one, but over the lifetime of your investment. So I'm actually just going to do this now. Let's use that deal that I was looking at. Just take the street address, put this in here, and then I'm going to go on to our purchase price. And for now, now I'm going to assume that I'm paying full asking price, which is 285. Maybe you can get it for cheaper, but I don't know. During your screening process looking for a deal, I usually assume I'm paying full purchase price. Maybe if when you're screening the deals and looking at them on bigger deals, you see that it's been sitting on the market for 80 days or 100 days, maybe you take 5% off and assume that you can do better. But this property I think was just recently listed. So I'm going to do that. I'm going to put in my purchase closing costs for which is something that you should really know at this stage. And I find that a lot of people get hung up on this. They're like, I don't know what my lender is going to Charge me or what an appraisal costs call and find out. This is super easy to do. Call a lender, call a title company, figure out what these expenses are going to be. Remember at this stage what you're really trying to do is make sure all your assumptions in your calculations are as accurate as possible. And so yeah, you can use a rule of thumb for purchase closing costs. But why you could just call this as a super easy one to find right now for the purposes of this, because I'm not really buying this deal, I'm doing this live truly. I'm just going to assume $5,000. But if this were you, you should get a really accurate number here. Now I'm not going to be rehabbing this property, so I'm just going to move on to my deal analysis. Put 25% down at 6.75 interest rate and assume that I'm debting a 30 year fixed rate mortgage and my income, let's just call it 2550. Because I actually looked into this quickly and although Our estimate of 2,500 I think is good, I think you could actually do better. Based on some of the other data that I'm seeing, I think we can get 2550 for this property pretty comfortably. So I'm going to do that and move on. I'm going to say our property taxes here are $2200 and our insurance should be about 1500 bucks. I just googled this before. And then for repairs and maintenance, because this is a relatively new property, I'll put 5% in here vacancy. I'm also going to put 6% because I want to make sure in case those inevitable vacancies happen, that I'm covered. And for capital expenditures, I'm going to put 5% in here as well because I'm an out of state investor. I'm going to put 8% here for management fees, but zero for any of my utilities because I'm going to just have my tenant pay those because this is a single family property property. Then I hit finish and what I come out with is slightly lower than what I saw on bigger deals, but it's actually pretty close. So when it comes out, even after I've refined my assumptions, I'm looking at a deal that I would actually consider buying. This is a cash on cash return of 4% or about 250amonth in cash flow. And again, this is a deal I would consider if there was considerable upside if I was in a path of progress and this place is going to see its rent grow over the next couple of years. I would definitely consider buying this in today's, today's day and age because I've done a pretty thorough job here. I'm assuming high expenses, I'm being pretty conservative. And this is an example of a deal that I would move on to that next stage of going to visit and in person again, I would still do a little bit more work. If I can't go in person, I'd have my agent go. But this is the type of deal on paper that at least to me as an out of state investor makes a lot of sense to do. Now not everything that you put into the calculator is going to make this much sense. As I said at the beginning, and these are just rules of thumb. Remember if you're doing 20 of these calculator reports to really do the underwriting, maybe five of them are going to get to this next stage. You know, one out of four, one out of five are probably going to be good and the rest are not going to make sense to you. And that's okay. That is part of it. I know it can be frustrating when you're first starting out and investing that you see a lot of deals that don't work. That's just part of the game. You have to get over that and just keep hunting for those deals. Some markets it might be 1 out of 10 is to going good, some might be 1 out of 20 is good and still that is okay because there are good deals. We're in this actually kind of interesting time in the housing market where yeah, there are a lot of bad deals out there, but the good deals are almost getting better in my opinion. But you have to be patient and you have to develop this efficient framework for looking for deals. And that's what we're talking about here today. So the last step here is once you get to those five properties that make sense on the calculator, I recommend if you can going to visit them in person or if you have a trusted team in place to have them go visit it because there's just some things from pictures and from the numbers that just you can't tell. Like sometimes I think I've found this deal that's amazing. And it's three bed, two bath and you get in there and then you're like actually that second bedroom doesn't really make sense. No one's going to want to live in there. And you realize you're not going to be able to rent it out for as much as you want. I Actually, on the other hand, I bought a property I lived in for several years. It was listed on the market as a two unit. One was a four bedroom and one was a three bedroom. And when I got there, I'm looking around and I'm like, this is an okay deal. I was thinking about it and I opened a door and there was a staircase and I walked up the staircase and there was a one bedroom apartment up there that wasn't listed on the property. There was a third unit that I didn't know about. Now that is an extreme example. But these things do happen when you actually go in person. Even if you don't, you don't see a whole extra unit. Maybe there's an unfinished basement that you can turn into another unit. Maybe in the upside era you're interested in looking for zoning upside and you see that there's a huge backyard and you're able to add an ADU in that neighborhood. These are the types of things you can do online but really help to see in person. So if I'm getting that stage between underwriting and actually making an offer offer, I recommend getting eyes on it. Whether it's yourself or someone that you trust. It could be your property manager, it could be your agent, ideally both. I've done that. I've done deals site unseen, but I have a trusted agent and property manager who go and look at the deals for me and can, you know, either do a FaceTime with me and look at those things and then ideally all five of those are worth offering on. Realistically, you're gonna see some things that come up that make you not like it. Maybe it's on a busy street or the neighborhood's just giving you the wrong vibes and it's not right for your strategy. That's totally okay. If you start out with 20 deals from bigger deals, you do the analysis on five and you owner offer on one or two. That's great. That's a win in my book. Maybe they get accepted. Hopefully they do. But if they don't, you just keep going and just keep going. And I know that this funnel approach may sound like it takes a lot of time and at first it will take you a little time. You're going to have to get used to looking at these expenses and maybe it will take you 15 or 20 minutes per calculator report and to run 20 of those is going to take you five hours. That's totally worth it. Taking you five hours to find a real estate investment. That is an entirely reasonable thing. You're talking about a proven asset class that can bring you to financial freedom. I hope you are willing to spend five hours looking for a deal because this could change your entire life and eventually it's not going to take you five hours. I promise. Looking through 20 deals, sooner or later it's going to take you two hours and then this whole process is just going to get easier, easier and easier and more and more efficient over the lifetime of your investing career. So my main lesson to you today, and when we talking about finding on market deals, is this mindset, right? To adopt the mindset of the funnel, start as broad as you can. Identify 20 different deals that make sense for your strategy on paper. Then dig into every single number, as much as you can, analyze them, put them in the BiggerPockets calculator and try to find three to five deals that really make sense and that you feel really good about your assumptions on. Then go visit those places in person and ideally you find one or two that you're going to make an offer on. And if you get those offer accepted, that's when you pull the trigger, right? Because you've done all this work, you don't have to second guess yourself and say, is this a great deal? Could I find something else? Because you've done the work, you've cast a broad net, you've looked at tons of different properties in your neighborhood and you can say with confidence that you've found one of, if not the best deal on the market in your area. And if that doesn't give you confidence to go out and buy something, I don't know what will. So hopefully this makes sense to you. This is the process that I've literally been using for 15 years as a real estate investor. And I think it's something that absolutely anyone can learn. And luckily this has gotten easier than ever with the new Bigger Deals tool. And again, if you want to check that out, go to biggerpockets.com listings and you can try that for free. So if you've been waiting either for your first deal or to scale your portfolio to the next deal, go do this right now. Go check out as many properties as you can. And before you say there's no deals out there or cash flow is dead, go actually check this out. And if you do this, I am confident you'll start to get a sense of what a good deal is in your market. If you need to adjust your strategy a little bit, you can do that because now you'll have data and information to base that on rather than just assuming that you can't find good deals, because I just found a couple just looking in a city I've never been to. I'm actively looking at deals all across the Midwest and I know tons of other real estate investors who are investing in the Southwest, on the west coast, in expensive Northeast markets right now because they've done this work to understand their assumptions, understand what works in their market, and do the work of analyzing lots of deals until they find the one that makes sense to for them. All right, that's all I got for you guys today. Thank you so much for being here for this episode of the BiggerPockets podcast. We really appreciate you. We'll see you next time. Thank you all for listening to the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast. Make sure you get all our new episodes by subscribing on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Our new episodes come out Monday, Wednesday and Friday. I'm the host and executive producer of the show, Dave Meyer. The show is produced by Ian K. Copywriting is by Calico, content and editing is by Exodus Media. 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