Podcast Summary: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: The “Great Stall” Has Begun
Date: November 7, 2025
Host: Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate at BiggerPockets

Episode Overview

Host Dave Meyer delves into what he calls “The Great Stall” in the U.S. residential real estate market, exploring the potential future directions for the housing sector, the most critical variables influencing outcomes, and actionable strategies for investors amid widespread uncertainty. Meyer breaks down three (and a half) scenarios for the market over the next few years—crash, melt up, great stall, and a “black swan” event—assigning probabilities and discussing how investors should position themselves for resilience and potential growth. The episode stresses realism, risk management, and a long-term mindset as keys for investors navigating this uncertain period.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Main Thesis: Affordability Is King

[02:38]

• Dave Meyer reiterates his long-standing view that housing affordability is the primary variable driving both supply and demand in the U.S. housing market.
• “Affordability is one of these magic variables...it drives both supply and demand...it dictates who can actually buy those houses, and it also dictates supply because people who can’t afford to buy a new home are more hesitant to sell their existing home.” — Dave Meyer [03:05]
• Adds labor market health (unemployment) as a second critical variable.
• Notes that affordability is at its worst point since the early 1980s, with mortgage rates, home prices, and wages all factoring in.

2. Key Variables Driving the Market

[03:45]

• Affordability (determined by wages, prices, and mortgage rates)—must improve for a healthier market.
• The labor market/unemployment rate—if it deteriorates sharply in tandem with poor affordability, risk increases.

3. Scenarios for the Housing Market

[08:10]
Meyer lays out “three and a half” possible futures:

Scenario 1: Crash (Stagflation with rising unemployment)

• If affordability does not improve and the labor market gets worse (higher unemployment), it's “not impossible” to see a crash, including distressed sales and rising foreclosures.
• “Is there a scenario where the housing market crashes? Yes...affordability stays low and unemployment goes up. That’s what we would call stagflation.” — Dave Meyer [09:10]

Scenario 2: Melt Up (Rapid Price Gains)

• Marked by rapid improvement in affordability, likely via a significant drop in mortgage rates, possibly due to a recession without inflation or through a turn to more aggressive monetary policy (e.g., quantitative easing).
• “For prices to really reaccelerate, we need affordability to get not a little better, it has to get significantly better—rates really need to fall, at least five and a half, probably five, to really get things growing.” — Dave Meyer [13:01]

Scenario 3: The Great Stall (Baseline: Prolonged Flat Market)

• The most likely scenario, per Meyer, is neither crash nor boom, but slow, boring stagnation: wages rise gradually, mortgage rates come down a bit, prices stagnate or drift slightly downward, and affordability rights itself slowly.
• “The core premise of the Great Stall is that nothing that dramatic happens to affordability...these problems could just take their time to resolve themselves.” — Dave Meyer [14:18]

Scenario 4: Black Swan (Unforeseen Global/Economic Shock)

• A “wild card” scenario—geopolitical or technological shock causes unpredictable disruption.
• “Usually I factor that in as, you know, pretty minor risk, but the world feels pretty Black Swanny right now.” — Dave Meyer [15:45]

4. Probabilities Assigned to Each Scenario

[16:03]

• Crash: 15%
• Melt up: 25%
• Great Stall: 50%
• Black Swan: 10%
• Most respected economists also expect a “Great Stall” as the consensus view.

“To me, the Great Stall—that’s the most likely scenario. I assign a probability of about 50% chance...most people believe that home prices are going to flatten and stall out for at least the next couple of years.” — Dave Meyer [17:10]

5. The Investor’s Playbook for the “Great Stall”

[19:46]
Dave’s four-pronged approach for investors under current conditions:

A. Take What the Market Gives You

• Focus on:
  • Inventory: More options will become available.
  • Deal flow: More negotiating power.
  • Patient underwriting: You can be selective.
• “The first fundamental is taking what the market is giving you, which is inventory, deal flow, and negotiating leverage.” — Dave Meyer [25:45]

B. Set Appropriate Short-Term Expectations

• Don’t expect big, fast gains—expect “singles and doubles” (consistent but modest returns).
• Think long-term; be in position for future pops in value.
• “If you’re getting into the housing market right now thinking you’re going to have big increases in your net worth in two to three years—I wouldn’t count on it...the better way to approach real estate right now is to say that I am getting into the market for the long run.” — Dave Meyer [27:50]

C. Adopt a ‘Risk-Off’ Approach

• Don’t over-leverage, take big gambles, or push for aggressive returns.
• Underwrite “scared”—assume no appreciation or rent growth for a few years and only pursue deals that still work.
• “Be very patient, be very discerning about the deals you do, and underwrite scared. That’s sort of my motto right now.” — Dave Meyer [30:00]

D. Think About Your Upsides (The “Upside Era”)

• Focus on cash flow—ensure every deal cash-flows.
• Look for bonus “upside” opportunities: value-add, zoning, buying under comps, potential for future rent growth, etc.
• Position for “doubles” now, with the chance some may turn into “triples or home runs” if the market improves.
• “Go buy a cash-flowing deal, but think about some of those shots that you can take to get those big bumps in equity. Find two or three of these upsides, and it’s very likely at least one or two will hit.” — Dave Meyer [33:15]

Notable & Memorable Quotes

• “Affordability is one of these magic variables in the housing market...It drives both supply and demand.” — Dave Meyer [03:05]
• “I believe we’re in a new paradigm where housing is going to be less affordable than it was in the past, because we have a housing shortage.” — Dave Meyer [05:27]
• “Usually I factor that [Black Swan scenario] in as pretty minor risk, but the world feels pretty Black Swanny right now. This is kind of powder keg vibes going on.” — Dave Meyer [15:45]
• “The Great Stall...a gradual, predictable restoration of affordability is about the best thing that we can ask for right now.” — Dave Meyer [20:37]
• “Underwriting scared is sort of the key tenant of [my strategy]...If you can find that kind of deal, which you can, that means you still hit a double, and even if we have that 15% chance of a market correction crash, you’re still fine.” — Dave Meyer [31:19]
• “Go hit a double right now and see if it hits a home run. Even if you don’t hit a home run, you still hit a double, which is probably better than what you’re doing with your money and your time right now in most cases.” — Dave Meyer [29:28]

Important Timestamps & Segments

• 00:00 – [Opening framing: No “crystal ball,” four possible paths for housing market]
• 02:38 – [Main variable: Affordability]
• 05:27 – [Why affordability is worse, “new paradigm”]
• 08:10 – [Defining four scenarios]
• 12:48 – [Explaining “melt up” scenario, rare but possible]
• 14:18 – [The Great Stall, as baseline projection]
• 16:03 – [Assigning probabilities to each scenario]
• 19:46 – [Why the Great Stall is actually “good news”]
• 25:17 – [Four-part investment approach for current conditions]
• 30:00 – [“Underwrite scared” and risk management]
• 33:15 – [Building in upside (“the upside era”)]

Summary Flow & Tone

Meyer maintains a candid, data-driven and community-oriented tone throughout: analytical yet reassuring, realistic but optimistic about well-executed, risk-conscious real estate investing. He urges listeners to resist speculation, practice discipline, and position themselves “to win and grow” over the long haul instead of seeking easy, fast profits.

Conclusion

Dave Meyer concludes with a call to community, inviting input on how others are navigating “the Great Stall” and reiterating that real estate investing remains a viable—and resilient—path to wealth, provided strategies align with realistic expectations and prudent risk management for uncertain times.

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