BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast — “The Great Stall is ON | March 2026 Housing Market Update”

Host: Dave Meyer
Date: March 20, 2026

Episode Overview

In this March 2026 Housing Market Update, Dave Meyer breaks down economic headwinds and the real estate market’s latest trends, specifically the ongoing “Great Stall.” The episode focuses on national and regional home prices, affordability shifts, evolving inventory levels, skyrocketing insurance premiums, risk factors (like the war in Iran and labor market weakness), and, crucially, where investors should look for opportunities amid today’s uncertainty. Through candid analysis and actionable advice, Dave arms investors with the tools and mindset needed for success in this unusual, transitioning market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Great Stall” — Housing Prices and Trends

• Prices Flattish Nationally:
  • Nominal price changes: up between 0.5%–1.5% across the US (not inflation-adjusted).
  • Inflation-adjusted terms: prices are actually declining.
• Major Regional Differences:
  • About 40% of markets are seeing price declines, primarily in the West Coast and Southeast (e.g., Florida, Texas, Louisiana, California).
  • Growth in the Northeast and Northwest remains, but that growth is decelerating.
• Key Insight for Investors:
  • “Everything in terms of prices is really starting to slow down. One of the key takeaways…if you’re underwriting deals...I would discount appreciation in almost every market.” (Dave, 03:23)
  • Strategy shift: anticipate little to no appreciation and potentially even some price declines, enabling discounts and negotiation opportunities.

2. Housing Sales Volume & Market Health

• Sales Volumes Still Slow:
  • February 2026 saw a slight uptick in home sales (after an unusually low January), now back to the ~4–4.1 million annualized sales rate—well below the “healthy” 5–5.5 million mark.
• Buyer Caution Remains High:
  • Despite mortgage rates dropping from around 7.1% to 6%, buyers remain hesitant due to overall uncertainty.
• “It’s going to stay slow” (Dave, 06:45)

3. Affordability Improvements

• Affordability Getting “Less Bad”:
  • Payment-to-income ratio now ~27% (down from highs, though not as low as in the 2010s).
  • “It’s not the best it’s ever been...but it’s not bad—most budgeting experts recommend 30% of your budget should go to housing.” (Dave, 08:27)
• What’s Driving This?
  • Wages rising faster than home prices.
  • Mortgage rates declining.
  • Median mortgage payment down $200 YoY (improves cash flow by $2,400 annually for investors).
• One in six markets has returned to historic affordability ranges:
  • “A couple of years ago, zero of metro markets were near affordability ranges—now we’re at one in six.” (Dave, 10:20)

4. Inventory — Predicting Future Movements

• Inventory Levels in Flux:
  • Realtor.com: Inventory up 8% YoY, but growth slowing for nine consecutive months; still 17% below pre-pandemic.
  • Redfin: Conflicting data—says inventory is down 2% YoY.
• Regional/Price Tier Nuance:
  • Inventory gains most notable in the South and West, especially in sub-$500,000 price ranges.
• Interpretation Amid Confusion:
  • “Inventory growth is slowing...If a crash was starting to unfold, you would see inventory going up and up...That is not what we’re seeing.” (Dave, 18:24)
  • Market more “negotiable” now: days on market up, sellers increasingly flexible.

5. Deep Dive – Insurance Premiums

• Insurance Up, But Slowing:
  • National premiums rose 6% over the past year (double inflation), but slower than 15–20% hikes of recent years.
  • Since 2017: average monthly premium doubled ($107 → $201).
  • Insurance is the fastest-rising cost for investors (up 72% since late 2019).
• Why Are Rates Rising?
  • Higher home values driving higher replacement/coverage costs.
  • Insurance companies increasing rates across the board.
• Regional Standouts:
  • Florida & Texas: saw declines in premium costs for first time in years (up to 6% decrease).
  • California, parts of Washington, Georgia, Northeast: still seeing double-digit increases.
• Dave’s Action Tip:
  • “Change providers. Shop around for insurance premiums. I know this sounds absolutely stupidly simple—but on average, only about 11% of homeowners do it...Switching insurance providers is a no-brainer.” (Dave, 27:48)
• Savings Stat:
  • Typical switchers saved 5–10% on premiums; in some markets (Orlando, Houston), $400–$500/year.
  • For multifamily or higher-value properties, potential insurance savings can reach $1,500+/year.

6. Risk Report – Where Are the Real Dangers?

• Delinquencies/Foreclosures:
  • Early-stage delinquencies are decreasing (“That’s good news.”), but later-stage delinquencies and foreclosures have ticked up slightly—still below pre-pandemic levels.
  • “Right now we don’t have that severe market risk, at least in any of the data.” (Dave, 35:15)
• New Risks in 2026:
  • War in Iran: higher oil prices → risk of renewed inflation/mortgage rate increases.
  • Labor market: US lost 92,000 jobs in February; risk of white-collar (higher-income) recession.
  • Uncertainty leads to lower transaction volumes.
• Crash Prediction?
  • “Is a crash possible? Yes, it absolutely is...Right now, I'd say...maybe it's 20%, maybe it's 25%. But I still do not believe that it is the most likely scenario. We are not in 2008.” (Dave, 37:45)
  • Only a major, AI-driven unemployment spike (to 7–8%) would transform market risk into a likely crash.

7. Where Are the Opportunities for Investors?

• “More and more deals in the coming months” as inventory rises and sellers get nervous.
• Discount Buying Returns:
  • “You could buy under market value in ‘22 and ‘23...but now you can, and that’s what you should be focusing on.” (Dave, 40:20)
• Best Bets:
  • B- and C-class buy-and-hold properties.
  • Starter homes/workforce housing, serving the segment of the population that still has solid employment prospects (e.g., trades, healthcare, blue-collar).
• Choice Quote:
  • “Good investors are going to see the current market and say, yeah, there’s slower appreciation, there is some risk of price declines. But I’m in this for the long run…and find great assets that I couldn’t compete for in previous years.” (Dave, 41:48)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the big market narrative:
  “If you’re underwriting deals...I would discount appreciation in almost every market.” (03:25)
• On improved affordability:
  “The average mortgage payment has fallen nearly $200 a month. That’s great, right? If you’re talking about buying a rental property, that’s $2,400 more per year in cash flow.” (09:55)
• On interpreting conflicting data:
  “Even on a national level, with two large reputable companies, the same thing is going on...It is hard to determine the exact number because both of these companies are going to have different methodologies...you want to try to get the general vibe...a directional trend.” (16:10)
• On insurance shopping:
  “Change providers. Shop around. On average, only 11% of people do it, but it works.” (27:48)
• On the risk of a crash:
  “We are not in 2008. Homeowners have a lot of equity ... forced selling is still unlikely.” (38:00)
• On actionable strategy in a soft market:
  “If you buy right, if you bid right, if you find the right deals...you should be focusing on value. There’s better opportunity for value than you’ve been able to find in I think like five years now.” (40:15)

Key Timestamps

• 00:00 — Opening: Economic headwinds, war in Iran, and 2026 market overview
• 03:00–06:45 — National and regional price trends; advice on deal underwriting
• 07:00–10:20 — Housing sales volume and affordability improvements
• 13:48–18:24 — Inventory analysis: how levels differ by region and price point
• 18:24–27:48 — Deep dive on insurance rates; actionable tips for investors
• 34:18–38:00 — Risk report: delinquencies, foreclosure stats, macro risks (war, jobs data)
• 38:00–41:48 — Opportunities: market strategy, what to buy now, and where real value lies

Actionable Takeaways

• Adjust your underwriting: Expect little/no appreciation; time to leverage negotiation power in slower markets.
• Monitor local inventory and days-on-market: Use Redfin, Realtor.com, or even ChatGPT to analyze your target market.
• Shop insurance aggressively: Annual review and switching can add hundreds to your annual cash flow.
• Refocus on affordability: Rental and starter home segments are stable bets.
• Stay alert to macro risks but don’t be paralyzed by them: Don’t ignore emerging risks (labor market, war), but recognize opportunity in periods of fear and volatility.

Final Note

Dave closes the episode reminding listeners that while the market is uncertain, disciplined, data-driven investors who adapt can thrive:
“Good investors are going to see the current market and say, yeah, there’s slower appreciation, there is some risk of price declines. But I’m in this for the long run…find great assets that I couldn’t afford or couldn’t compete for in previous years. That’s what the market is giving us right now.” (41:48)

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