What We’re Buying During This Housing Correction

Summary

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Podcast Summary: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast – “What We’re Buying During This Housing Correction”

Date: November 28, 2025
Host: Dave Meyer
Guests: Henry Washington, Kathy Fettke
Theme: Real Estate Investing Strategies in a Market Correction

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Episode Overview

This episode is a special crossover from the BiggerPockets sister podcast, On the Market. Host Dave Meyer is joined by seasoned investors Henry Washington and Kathy Fettke to discuss practical strategies for buying real estate during the current market correction. The conversation centers on reframing the correction as an opportunity, adjusting expectations, and focusing on timeless investment fundamentals. The trio shares their investment philosophies, mistakes, and actionable advice for thriving in less “easy money” environments, aiming to inspire both new and experienced investors.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of the Current Housing Market

• Correction, Not Crash:
  • Dave sets the stage, noting that home prices have been flat to slightly down in real terms for three years (01:30). While some markets like Florida and Texas have declined, this is a correction not a crash (01:40).
  • Quote: “We’re in a housing market correction. It’s not a crash, but it’s a different market than we’ve experienced for the previous few years.” — Dave (00:41)
• Expectations vs. Reality:
  • Henry observes that, compared to the pandemic years, today’s market “feels” worse than it is because expectations are skewed by recent historic highs in appreciation and speed of sales (03:55).
  • Quote: “The problem with real estate right now is not the market, it’s expectations.” — Dave (05:05)
• Normal Cycles:
  • Kathy and Henry emphasize real estate’s cyclical nature, and point to this correction as a normal—and even welcome—disruption for experienced investors looking for less competition (06:01–06:43).

2. What Experienced Investors Are Doing Differently

• Adjusting to New Dynamics:
  • Henry shares that he is returning to fundamentals: buying at the right price, ensuring multiple exit strategies, and accepting deals that don’t rely on rapid appreciation (20:10–22:16).
  • Kathy stresses that her approach hasn’t fundamentally changed: “Buy and hold in solid, landlord-friendly markets where the average person can afford the rent” (31:46).
• Cash Flow is King:
  • Consensus among all is that, in a market with flat or declining prices, cash flow becomes the most important metric (33:42, 34:00).
  • Quote: “I think cash flow is the number one thing to be looking for right now. I’ve never bought a non-cash flowing deal.” — Dave (33:42)
  • Buy in locations and at prices that make sense now, treating potential appreciation as a bonus rather than a strategy.

3. Multiple Exit Strategies & Underwriting Conservatively

• Deals With Options:
  • Henry provides a real case: buying a property at a steep discount ($102K for a home potentially worth $270K). If the flip doesn’t pan out, it can be rented at a solid cash flow (19:03–22:16).
  • Quote: “If I try to sell it and I don’t get what I want, I can throw a tenant in it and I can rent it for $1,800 to $2,000 a month. And it’ll cash flow at that price.” — Henry (20:13)
• Conservative Analysis:
  • All three agree to “underwrite scared”: assume zero rent growth, potential further price declines, and only do deals that work even if things get worse (36:16).
  • Quote: “Underwrite scared is kind of a perfect way to put it.” — Henry (36:43)
• Be More Disciplined:
  • Unlike in 2021-2022, now every dollar counts; overpaying can have serious consequences. Don’t “force” deals with thin margins.

4. Lessons From Previous Cycles & Sticking to Your Plan

• Patience Wins:
  • Both Dave and Kathy recall “missing out” by selling too early, and the importance of sticking to your long-term buy-and-hold strategy even when the market feels stagnant (16:36–18:21, 30:29–31:23).
  • Quote: “If you miss that (growth) period, then you’re waiting another seven years… I want to get into the market so I don’t miss it.” — Dave (18:21)
• Emotional Control:
  • Success often comes from managing your own biases and not getting swayed by others’ opinions or hype (31:23–31:46).

5. Segment-Specific Trends

• Single Family vs. Multifamily and Syndications:
  • Single family distress is limited, but investors need to focus on true value since quick sales at high prices are history (09:00–09:29).
  • On the syndication/development side, Kathy is shifting back to stable, cash-flowing properties rather than risky long-term land deals (33:46).
• Short-Term Rentals:
  • These soared during COVID but have since cooled. Now, operators must up their management game; “lazy” strategies no longer work (35:24–35:50).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Investor Maturity:
  • “You all just growing up. It’s part of that … You had your first little fight, and then you get through it, and then things are better, right?” — Kathy (06:02)
• On Role of Investors in Corrections:
  • “A lot of what happens in a normal correction is investors set the floor for how things can fall …” — Dave (09:34)
• On Avoiding Speculation:
  • “It’s really just sticking with things that you know are going to work and not speculating. I think that’s one of the main takeaways from this conversation.” — Dave (39:16)

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:41: Episode setup and framing the market as a correction, not a crash
• 03:11: Kathy’s perspective on corrections and the value of long-term holding
• 05:05: Dave and Henry discuss the “expectations problem”
• 06:43: Henry on cycles and excitement for buying deals in corrections
• 09:34: Dave on role of investors in setting the market bottom
• 16:36: Kathy on historical fear during downturns and importance of fundamentals
• 19:03: Henry’s example of structuring a deal with multiple exit strategies
• 21:36: The critical importance of buy discipline today
• 29:40: Kathy on how her approach (buy and hold in solid markets) hasn’t changed
• 33:42: Group agrees that “cash flow is king”
• 36:16: On underwriting “scared” and only chasing exceptional deals now
• 39:09: Henry: “I like sleeping at night when I buy deals”

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Actionable Takeaways

• Ground Your Investing in Fundamentals: Prioritize cash flow, quality assets, and good locations
• Expect Flat or Slightly Declining Prices: Don’t rely on appreciation—treat it as a bonus
• Underwrite Conservatively: Build zero or negative growth into your models
• Require Multiple Exit Strategies: Only buy assets that can be profitable as both rentals and sales
• Be Patient and Disciplined: Don’t overpay—walk away from marginal deals
• Upgrade Your Management: For short-term and mid-term rentals, effort and quality matter much more today
• Stick to Your Plan: Don’t let market noise or peer actions knock you off a proven long-term game plan

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Tone & Style

Engaging, candid, and slightly humorous, with an optimistic slant on the current correction. The hosts encourage investors not to panic but to double down on discipline and fundamentals, seeing this market as a time of opportunity rather than dread.

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Summary by [Your Name], BiggerPockets Podcast Summarizer

Transcript

[A]

Hey everyone. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving and you found a new property off your Black Friday wish list. Today for the Bigger Pockets podcast, we are bringing you an episode from our sister podcast on the Market. You've probably heard me saying for the last several months that we're in a housing market correction. It's not a crash, but it's a different market than we've experienced for the previous few years. And to share some insights about that on this on the Market episode, I talked to Henry Washington and Kathy Fecky about how they're still buying real estate and still making money right now, even if the investing formula is not as easy as it was back in 2021. I hope this episode helps you think of the current housing market as an opportunity instead of just some big risk, and my conversation with Kathy and Henry will provide you with some inspiration as you plan for 2026. We'll be back with a new episode on Monday. Here's me, Cathie and Henry on on the market Originally published October 23rd last week I spent an entire episode laying out that I think we are in a market correction. We're not in a crash, but we're in a period where home prices may go down, they may stay stagnant. And I hope that was a helpful conversation for everyone to just have realistic expectations for what to expect over the next couple of years. So today we're going to shift that conversation from just data and background towards what you can actually do about it. In today's episode, I'm joined by Kathy Fecky and Henry Washington to pressure test the frameworks and the data that I presented last week. I'd obviously love their opinion, compare notes on what they're seeing in their own analysis of the market, and turn the playbook into practical steps. During this episode, we're going to talk about trends that we're seeing in each of our own markets, how we're adjusting our own investing strategy and frameworks that you can all apply to your portfolios to make profitable decisions. During this market correction you're listening to on the Market let's get into it. All right, Well, I am assuming you guys don't listen to the on the Markets episodes when you're not on it. I won't take offense. Last week I did a solo episode just sort of laying out what I believe to be the reality of the situation is that we're in a market correction. Basically, the gist of it is that home prices are up 1 or 2% in real terms, but if you look at inflation adjusted terms, prices have been pretty flat or a little bit down for almost three years now. And I actually think that's going to get a little bit more pronounced in the next year or so. I think the market is really slowing down and we might see nominal non inflation adjusted home prices go down 1 or 2% more in certain markets. We're seeing Florida, Texas, they're already down more than that, but on a national level, a couple percentage points. Do you agree? Do you think that's crazy? Do you think we're going to see something totally different? Kathy, let's start with you.

[B]

I'm so glad because I am the A student on today's episode because I did listen to that show.

[A]

Look at you, Henry. Did you?

[C]

I listened to half the episode. Yes, 100%.

[B]

Yeah. So as I was listening, you know, my thoughts were, yes, it's a correction. And my first thought was, if you're in it for the long game, when I buy property, I'm thinking, you know, long, long, long, long, long term. So it's just part of it. It's a softening. But if you are in the rental business, you don't care because you're not selling. All you care about is our rents going down. That's, that's your income. So where are we there? It depends on your market. Some markets rents have softened, but if you're still collecting rent, you're in good shape.

[A]

Yep, absolutely. I totally agree and we'll get into some of that about what you should be looking for. But Henry, you're seeing a correction as well.

[C]

Yeah, I think we're seeing a correction now. Again, my market has some insulation, I think, compared to a lot of other markets. Markets. But we are absolutely seeing a slowdown. We just hit four months of inventory on the market and that is about what we need to be considered a balanced market. But because we're so used to listing something and it's selling fairly quickly, even though we're in a very balanced, normal market, it feels like we're not. It feels like we're in a situation that's more dire than that because things are moving slower than we're accustomed to. But if, if you zoom out, I got in this business in 2017, it was pretty normal to list a property and it said for 30 to 60 days and you only get a couple of offers and you have to do some concessions and then maybe you sell that property for a profit. We were buying properties and getting, you know, a 6%, 6 1/2% interest rate. As a rental property. Like, it. This all feels like it did pre pandemic, but the pandemic went so crazy and people made so much money that now what used to be normal feels uncomfortable.

[A]

I kind of feel like the problem with real estate right now is not the market, it's expectations. It's just that people are thinking that real estate is supposed to be the way it was during the pandemic. And don't get me wrong, I think the market is. There's a lot of challenges with the market right now in most places. Like, we're not all magically in Henry's northwest Arkansas bubble. But I think in most places there are challenges, But I think the biggest challenge is people are thinking that they could make easy money.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

In this industry, because there was a period where you could make easy money, but that is the exception to the rule, not the normal thing that happens in real estate. So I think that's sort of why I wanted to have this conversation is just normalizing one, the fact that these things happen and that corrections are a normal part of the economic cycle.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And two, that it's normal to invest in this part of the cycle. Or at least I think so.

[C]

Yeah, it is.

[B]

Yeah. That's what I wanted to say is it's like when you say people are thinking, I think what you mean is newer investors. And those newer investors are learning or they're growing up. Basically, they're becoming experienced investors, because experienced investors aren't thinking that. They're thinking, finally, finally there's a correction where I could get me some good buys out there, and I don't have the competition. We've been waiting for this moment. So you all just growing up. It's part of that. Comparing it to the marriage. You had your first little fight, and then you get through it, and then things are better. Right.

[A]

If you work through it. Yeah. You learned how to get through the fight.

[C]

You know, I compare it to something you said in that solo episode. What you said was, there is a cycle to market conditions. And so the experienced investors are kind of excited for a period like this because a, we know how to make money through a correction. Right. It's just a matter of adjusting what you're willing to buy and adjusting how much risk you're willing to take on given the more risky environment. But you can still be profitable. But we know on the other side of this correction, if we've bought during the correction, that we're going to see a lot of equity and appreciation and growth on the other side of it. And so it's exciting for people who have that experience because now we're like, we can buy good deals now. We'll make money. We won't make 20, 22 flip prices if we're flipping a house, but we'll make a decent profit. But if we hold onto things and even if they're breaking even now, we'll be able to sell those and. Or get increased rents later or leverage the increased equity that we're going to get. Like, I'm excited because let's get through the rough part so we can get to the good stuff again.

[B]

Totally. One of the things you said in the show, Dave, was affordability. Something has to give if things become unaffordable. And that's probably the most important metric to ever look at whenever buying. Can people afford what you've got? If what you've got is something you're trying to sell, you're flipping it and people can't afford it, you're in trouble. If you're trying to rent it and people can't afford it, you're in trouble. It's always that. And so when interest rates are low, that creates incredible affordability, obviously. And then prices go up. And then when prices go up, and then rates go up at the same time, which is what we've seen. Affordability's out the window. So something breaks and whatever that is. Everybody's been waiting for the interest rate to break. Like, please be at that. If we could just get that to come down, then everything will be fine. But because that hasn't happened, something else is going to break. And that's pricing. And so that's what we're seeing. It has to happen. It's what we have been waiting for. It's why we just started our multifamily fund. It's breaking. And you can only get great deals when there's a bit of a crisis. Right. That's how it works.

[C]

Amen.

[B]

That's what we're seeing. And it's not as much of a crisis in the single family world. People aren't as much in a hurry to sell. They don't have to in most cases. And when I say they, that's lumping a lot of people into one category. There are obviously people in crisis because we are seeing the foreclosure rate creep up, but nothing out of hand, nothing abnormal. But more people are in that struggle bus. And again, that means deals. I hate saying that. It's like, ugh, I don't want to be a shark and take advantage of people in a difficult situation. But it's, it's during distress that you get the deals right.

[A]

Yeah, it's just, it's adapting and taking what the market is giving you. It's not like you are putting those people in distress and they're going to put those properties on the market. And listen, I'm not trying to make real estate investors sound like angels, but you know, a lot of what happens in a normal correction is investors set the floor for how things can fall because a lot of times what happens is normal. Home buyers get spooked by a correcting market. We saw this in 2008. That was a crash, not a correction. That was a real crash. And homeowners, no one wanted to touch real estate. And actually if you look at a lot of studies of what happened back then, the academic studies, credit institutional investors getting into the single family space with setting a bottom for that market and allowing prices to bottom and then coming back in. And so I think you're right, Kathy, like investors do play of getting the market back to a normal level because a lot of those distressed sellers aren't going to be able to find homeowner buyers, especially when those homeowner buyers have more options right now and could buy stabilized properties at a discounted rate. And so I just think you're entirely right that different people play different roles and it's, you know, I'm not wishing for anyone to lose their shirt. I certainly hope no one gets into distress. But that is sometimes part of this. But as you also said, it's not even going to be a big part of this. I don't think in this correction, you know, you look at distress levels, you know, delinquency levels, like you said, it's just not that high. Which makes it to me seem like it's, yeah, we're probably going to have declining real home prices for a couple, I think maybe a couple of years even. But to me that's at least predictable. Right. Like that's. As an investor, the only thing I want is like something that I can predict and can understand and is somewhat stable because it's the really big swings that really are worrisome to me or create a lot of uncertainty. If we see a period of time where home prices stay flat, I can invest around that. I can't you.

[C]

Absolutely. I mean, that's what you want, right? Is exactly. We haven't had predictability in a long time. Right. And so predictability, there's comfort in predictability because you can make more long term decisions. Or I guess you should say you can make more midterm decisions because in the long term real estate's going to go up. That's right. Right. If you zoom out long enough. But it's the, it's the short to midterm that can be a little more volatile. And so it can help you have a more well rounded investing approach where you buy some deals that are going to make you money in the short term, you buy some deals that are going to make you money in the midterm, and you buy some deals that you're going to hold and keep forever and create that, that true passive generational wealth like you can, you can be a more well rounded investor when there is predictability.

[A]

All right, we gotta take a quick break, but more with me, Kathy and Henry right after this I once joked that I needed an assistant just to manage all of my assistants, because every AI tool I tried did one thing and then made me do 10 others. AI I thought was meant to make work easier, not heavier. Superhuman changes that. It's a connected productivity suite built for the way modern teams actually get things done. Grammarly, Mail and Coda move as one system. Grammarly handles clarity. Coda keeps everything structured and mail brings your focus back. They anticipate what you need and adapt to how you work. When you start writing, it helps you say things precisely when you're organizing your work, everything stays connected. When you switch between projects, you don't lose your flow. And that is what AI should feel like. Effortless focus instead of friction. My Assistants Assistant Superhuman can help bring you back to the work that matters. I'll have to work on saying assistants assistants on my own though, because man, that is difficult to say. Unleash your superhuman potential with AI that meets you where you work. Learn [e-mail] podcast that's superhuman.com podcast Aaron.

[D]

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[A]

This week's bigger news is brought to you by the Fundrise Flagship Fund. Invest in private market real estate with the Fundrise Flagship fund. Check out fundrise.com pockets to learn more. Welcome back to on the Market. I'm here with Cathy and Henry talking about how we're adjusting our own investing strategies during the market correction. Let's jump back in. I like what you said there because I set my own goals like I have long term goals, you know, when I'm trying to get to financial freedom. That's like a 10, 15 year goal for me and then I have a three year goal and then like a one year goal and I find the three years the hardest right now. It's really hard to figure out where we're going to be three years from now or it has been. But I actually think it's getting more clear personally that we're going to be in this correction. Rates are not going to come down very much. Prices are going to be pretty flat. There's always these black swan events. Things could happen with the Trump shakes up the Fed if we have a massive job loss recession. You know, of course those things could change that. But but as of right now, it just seems like we're gonna get back to pretty flat and boring. And I can plan around that.

[B]

You called it in your amazing keynote at bpcon, Dave. I loved it.

[A]

Thank you.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

And you gave these four different scenarios of what could happen. But you also gave this example of in. What was it, 2010 or. When did you say that?

[A]

Oh, yeah, 2010. It was like my first deal.

[B]

Yeah, it was scary. People, everyone's like, oh, I wish I could have bought in 2010. But if you were there in 2010, it was terrifying. The world was falling apart. We didn't know if we'd be the United States of America. We were stocking food. And so to go out and buy real estate took a lot of nerve. But you did it. And you didn't know if prices were going to continue to go down. And in fact, they did. But you bought that fourplex based on fundamentals, like wherever the market goes, it doesn't matter. This fits what I'm trying to do. Over time, it's going to work out. It turns out prices went down for a few years, you weren't selling, didn't matter, and then, whoa, prices took off and unbeknownst to you, you made a crap ton of money.

[A]

Yes, that's right, exactly. Yeah. There's obviously a lot of difference in 2008. Right. You know, prices are not going to get that cheap again. I think that might be a once in a lifetime kind of thing for the value that we got. But I don't know if you guys follow Bill McBride, he's a housing analyst, but he put together this chart that just shows real housing prices, which is inflation adjusted housing prices over long term in the us and what it shows is that the housing prices in terms of beating inflation, it's actually like, you know, you have like seven years of flat and then it kind of goes up and then you have seven years of flat and then you have these periods of amazing returns. And this actually goes back in time. In the 90s, it was pretty flat. Then you had the bubble. Obviously that wasn't great. You know, we saw actually for many years after the crash, it was flat, then it went up, up. We're three years into flat again. I don't know when it's going to go up again. Right. I don't know when real home prices are going to go up. But I want to get into the market so that I don't miss it. Because if you miss that, then you're waiting another seven years, right?

[C]

Yes.

[A]

And so the whole my whole game right now is like, how do I find deals that make money today? There are deals that make money today, but I don't care if my prices go up or down 2% next year, because what I'm in it for is that next bump. I'm waiting. I'm just going to buy stuff and then if it's two years from now, it's four years from now, it's five years from now. Sure, I'd love it to come sooner, but I don't really care. I'm just like, trying to buy things that make money now and then get in for that next bump. And even if the best bump is 10 years from now, I'm still making money now, so it's fine like that. That to me is like the psychology I'm approaching this with. How are you sort of Henry, changed your mindset given where we are right now?

[C]

Yeah. It is all about having multiple exit strategies for deals, and one being short term and one being more midterm or long term. And if you can buy things that have multiple exit strategies, then that allows you to stay profitable. I'll give you an example. We just closed on a house. We paid $102,000. It's a four bedroom, three bathroom. But it's not in a neighborhood where it's going to sell for, you know, $400,000 for a home being that size. The ARV on this property is somewhere around $270,000. Okay. Now, I bought it as a flip. Right? The goal is to spend about 50 to $70,000 on the renovation and then sell that property for 250 to $270,000. Now, there's some caveats. There's some problems with the neighbors in this area that could affect my sale price. So there's some problems that could cause me not to sell this property for what I'm hoping to sell this property for. But at the end of the day, I bought a property worth $270,000 for $100,000.

[A]

Yeah. Who cares what the market's doing?

[C]

Because if I try to sell it and I don't get what I want, I can throw a tenant in it and I can rent it for 1800 to $2000 a month.

[A]

Right.

[C]

And it'll cash flow at that price. And I can just make money as a rental, and I can keep it as a rental for a long time, or I can keep it as a rental until the market tells me it's a better time to sell it and I can make my Profitability later. So I can make cash flow now, sell later. I can make cash flow forever. I can not make any cash flow and sell it for a profit. Even if I have to sell it for $230,000, I'll still make money, Right? Like it's, it's about finding deals that make sense with multiple exit strategies and then you can choose how you're going to make money on it. The way to mitigate the risk is you've got to pay the appropriate price to weather the storm.

[A]

That's just fundamentals, right? Like that's just what we're talking about. Right?

[C]

It's just like it's just called real estate investing.

[A]

Yes, I know, but I think it's important for people to remember that buying quality assets at a good price in a good location is just still the game. Like that is. It's just it, right? It's like whether you're flipping or rental or short term rental, whatever it is, that still works. The price you're willing to pay has changed.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Because there is more risk and you have to be more disciplined about what you're willing to pay. If you were buying in 2022, if you overpaid by 10 grand, like, who cared? It didn't matter. Now it matters. So pay less.

[C]

There was a time I would have paid 150 for this thing, right? Because I knew I could profit on it later. But that time has passed. And you know, it's interesting, my realtor called me not long after I bought the property and he was like, buddy, I'm worried about this one. And I said, well, what are you worried about? He was like, I'm just worried that it won't sell for what we want. And I was like, yeah, but I mean, I could rent it for 18 to 2000. And he was like, oh yeah, oh yeah, that's. Yeah, you can do that, right? You're just fine.

[B]

The thing that always is. I'm in awe for those of you who flip, is that you have to be good on the buy side and the sale side. And that's a lot of pressure. And you have to do that in, we're talking months. And most of the time the market's not going to shift that much in three to six months, but it can. And that's why the flipping world terrifies me. Because, you know, as buy and hold, you really only have to be great on the buy side for the most part. Like right now, it's not the best time to sell. It's just not everywhere. But I'll tell you what, probably what you've got to be better at right now than anything is pricing right and selling it right. Because it's a buyer's market. Buyer has the power, seller does not. So if you think you can get last year's price and act like a staunch, I don't know, like, this is my price, I put all this money in it. And you're trying to. That you think you can get what you got two years ago, you're going to be sitting and that's. That's the death of a sale. We have somebody who put their house on the market next door. And I'm mad because they went like, okay, granted, I am where I am, but millions over, they're actually what it should be.

[A]

Oh, yeah.

[B]

And all the agents are like idiots. No one is buying it. It's just going to sit there. And that's not great for me. But yeah. So right now, you better be darn good at listing.

[A]

To me, just talking to a lot of flippers and starting to dip my toe into it a little bit. At least in Seattle and other markets I'm in, it feels like we're still at this sort of tail end of what feels like the riskiest part of the market, which is the transition from sort of a growing market to a correcting one where you're still buying at higher prices. And then by the time you go to sell, things have sort of flattened out. Even in a market like the one I believe we're going into, which is going to be maybe negative, that even I think is less risky because you know that going into, again, it's the predictability. And you know you're going to buy even more disciplined, expecting or assuming that prices are going to go down 2 to 3% by the time you sell them. But it was sort of like over the last year, it's kind of been this time where like, okay, sellers were still had a lot of power. By the time you go to sell, you've kind of lost your power as a seller. And that's, I think, the riskiest part as. As anyone who's trying to sell a property. Right?

[C]

Yeah, absolutely. It's all just healthy. I think there are ways to make money in this business right now, and I think there are very risky things to do. And as you can tell in this episode, like, risk is determined by who you are, where you are and what your strategy is. You know, Kathy sees as what I'm doing as risky, and that's fair. It is risky for Her. And I see what I'm doing is. Is far less risky because I am buying as a landlord, I am buying as a hold, because that's what my strategy is going to be. If it doesn't sell for what I.

[B]

Need it to sell, you've got options.

[C]

So my risk is, can I afford to have multiple rentals come on at the same time? Right. If I can't sell anything, Right. Can I afford to keep them all as rentals? Right. You just. That's where you get in over your head because it does cost money to operate those properties as rental properties.

[A]

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[A]

Welcome back to on the market. Let's jump into our conversation about how to adjust your. Your strategy and your investing decisions during a market correction with me, Henry and Kathy. Kathy, how are you changing your strategy? What's your philosophical change to your approach?

[B]

You know, what we've been doing for 20. Over 20. Oh, my gosh, 25 years. Anyway, what we've been doing is the same, like, nothing has changed. And when I was telling your story for you about how you bought that property in 2010, you bought it, right? You bought it like, not even. Just like, fine. Like it wasn't this deal of the century and it. But it fit your strategy. When I bought in Dallas, Texas, because I knew what was happening there. And I know some of you listening were not even born yet, but it was 2005 when we started buying and we bought stupid good deals, which were not good deals. They were like $140,000 homes in Rockwall, Texas. That, to me from, as a Californian, was.

[C]

It was almost free. Yeah.

[B]

You know, it was.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Cost of a garage here. Right. But in. But in Texas, it was retail. And Texans would just look down their nose at me and laugh like, oh, this out of state. It doesn't know what she's doing. She negotiated a $5,000 discount, you know, but they were new, they were easy to manage, and it made sense for me. Guess what? They're like three or four hundred thousand dollars today, if not more. But guess who sold them. Didn't hold. Because during that time, nothing kind of happened. And we got out of those properties right before they took off in price. So we didn't get that bonus that you got, Dave. Then I didn't stick with my plan, which was to hold them forever. I started to listen to these people saying, oh, nothing's ever going to happen in Texas. It's just. There's too much land. Prices will never go up. So part of it is sticking with your strategy, too, and, like, knowing.

[C]

Absolutely.

[A]

Which is hard. Yes, it is hard. I mean, I. I'm a tinkerer and you shouldn't be. I'm always, like, trying to, like, think of ways to do it. It's hard to, like, just hold on to things when you have to be patient. But that is the game. Like being. Getting. Getting control of your own emotions in that way is like a big part of being a buy and hold investor, I think.

[B]

Yeah. So coming back to what have I changed as far as our fundamental business of buy and hold, single family and strong growth markets that are landlord friendly, where the average person can Afford your rent. I love that philosophy. It's like if we just focus on the average price and the average person who can afford that average means the most. It's the most people in that area can afford what you have to offer. That has worked for us for 25 years and I think it's going to continue for the next 25 years. So zero has changed with what we do and what we teach other people to do. From a. On the syndication side, which is more advanced I guess you could say for the past decade or 15 years we've been doing subdivisions which take five to 10 years to get up and running. And if you think, Henry, that you know, you gotta guess what's happening in the market in three to six months. Yeah, try guessing five to 10 years, you have no idea. And it's so much riskier and so much harder. And we've done, we've knocked them out of the park and some have been the struggle bus for years. So I would say in the syndication side we are going back to what I know what I love, which is acquiring things that cash flow, you know, whether it's apartments, whether it's single family homes so that you can just sit and hold them if your original plan didn't go. But if you've got raw land and you sit and hold it, that's expensive and there's no income coming in and you got all the overhead, you got to put in the roads and the sewers and the utilities and then nobody wants to buy what you got because all of a sudden you timed it on a down market. So what we're changing is I'm getting older, I don't need any more stress. We're just going to do what's tried and true. Buy and hold rental income, improve it as you go. Easy stuff, right?

[D]

Love it.

[A]

I completely agree. I think cash flow is the number one thing to be looking for right now. I've never bought a non cash flowing deal but I know during the pandemic it got popular to invest for appreciation. You just say like, oh, it's, you know, you just buy something, even if it's negative cash flow, it's going to go up. And people made a lot of money doing that. But that was very unique and I do not recommend doing that anymore. As I was saying, my whole philosophy is like wait, make money now and wait until the next pop. And it's honestly the pop is not even the main thing. Like if you buy a good deal right now, that's still going to be a Better use of your money than almost anything else you could do. If you buy real estate right now, even in a correcting market, it should do better than the stock market. So like, like to me that's kind of a no brainer. And then if another pop happens, that's great. But the only way you can survive or the only way you know you can survive to the next pop or to time your exit from that property optimally is if you have cash flow. Because otherwise you might. You know, when Kathy was saying it's going to get tempting to sell if nothing's happening and you're not cash flowing that very tempting to sell. But if you're sitting there collecting cash on cash return, that that's better than anywhere else you could put your money. It's pretty easy to sit on those properties because you're like, I can't do anything else better. I'm just going to keep doing it and treat it sort of like an index fund. Just kind of set it and forget it.

[B]

My properties were cash flowing just fine. I was just like greedy. I'm like, I want to do better somewhere else. And then boom, market takes off.

[A]

That's the hard part though of being in this industry, right? It's like you're seeing what everyone else is doing. So you start thinking like, oh, maybe I should do that. But like in reality you should just not.

[C]

You should just trust yourself.

[A]

Exactly.

[B]

Which brings me to another asset class which is the short term rentals that we just started during COVID because my goodness, what a boom. We just were like, hey, let's just see if this works. And yeah, they were rented non stop. They were rented same day. I had to have house cleaners there between 11 and three every day. You know, every day it was just constant like, wow, this is a cool business. And now it's not. I don't want to say it's not, but it has slowed down dramatically. Dramatically.

[A]

Mine too.

[B]

So that's another one where I was sort of just dabbling. It was easy. Money just came in. Sometimes I think I just used like old furniture I had. I. My daughter walked in, she goes, mom, this is ugly. No letter. You need to like get nice stuff in here. We would just, just use like garage sale stuff. So if you're, if you're noticing that with your short term rentals is no longer the time again just to be lazy about it, you have to be very, very good at it.

[A]

But yeah, so I think, you know, cash flow, these are good advice. The last thing I talked about this bpcon I said before, but, like, I just think the other thing in a correction is to, like, we always say underwrite conservatively. I'm like underwriting scared. I'm like, you know, no price, no rent growth for two years. Yeah, why not? If it works like that, I'll be happy no matter what happens. You know, I'd rather do it that way than try and force something to work. So that's my last piece of advice.

[C]

Yeah, no underwrite. Scared is kind of a perfect way to put it. You know, I just made an offer on a property, and so on paper, the deal kind of made sense. They were asking 95,000 for a two bed, one bath that I could turn into a three bed, two bath, and then I could sell it for about 210 to 220 after about what I was estimating about a $50,000 rehab. That's a solid base hit of a deal. But I don't want to underwrite for a base hit now. Like, I kind of want to underwrite for a grand slam, and if I get a base hit, that's cool.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

So, yeah, I sent someone out there to look at the property. We kind of estimated the rehab at about 65,000. And I was like, you know what I mean? Unless I'm going to make 50 grand on this, because it's just a little bit further away than I want it to be. Like, I don't know that I want to do it it. And so, you know, I made my offer at around 55, which I knew wouldn't get accepted. Could I make money at 85? I mean, probably a little bit, but I don't want to get myself into a position in this market where my back's against the wall, and if I don't hurry up and sell it for the price that I thought I could sell it for, then I won't make any money. You know, I don't want to make five grand and put in all that work and be stressed out. I want to underwrite it to make 50, and if I get that deal, cool, I'll go make somewhere between 30 and 50, rather than underwrite it to make 30 and then be sweating bullets hoping that I make 30 and then end up making like 5 to 10 after a whole lot of stress. Like, that's just the market we're in is different now. And so, you know, talking to the wholesaler who had the deal, you know, I tried to explain that to him and he didn't like my offer, and that's fine. And he was like, I can get somebody that's gonna come pay me 85 to 95. Great. Go sell it to them for that. And so it's tough, like, because as an investor, it's hard to look at a deal and walk away and go, you know, am I walking away from 30 grand? Yeah, maybe. But you also may be walking away from a $10,000 loss that you, you know, if you don't play your cards right. So, you know, I'm kind of underwriting to shoot for the moon, and if I hit the stars, that's great. And, yeah, that could mean I'm walking away from some deals where I'm leaving 10, 20, 30 grand on the table. But that's okay. That's okay in this market.

[B]

Henry, it's time to share. You're gonna just share with someone. Let someone else have that.

[C]

Let's let someone else go take that risk. I also like sleeping at night when I buy deals. Like, I don't want to be super stressed out.

[A]

Totally. All right, well, that. That is great advice. Thank you guys so much. This was a lot of fun. I really appreciate to try and just make sense of what's going on and show that. That experienced investors are still buying. They're just thinking about ways that they're adjusting their strategies, not being as aggressive, I think, sort of going back to fundamentals, and that's okay. It was okay to be aggressive during the last couple of years. It made sense to be aggressive during the last couple of years. Now it makes sense to be a little bit more conservative in your underwriting, a little bit more conservative with strategies, and really just sticking with things that you know are going to work and not. Not speculating. I think that's one of the main things, one of the main takeaways from this conversation that we're seeing here. And giving yourself optionality was another big one. Henry hit on that, I think makes a lot of sense here. So, Henry, Kathy, thank you guys so much for being here. Kathy, I know after a day of partying, this was a big ask for you, so we appreciate you rolling out of bed to get here.

[B]

It was two nights ago. I'm okay. I'm okay now.

[A]

Okay, good. All right. And, Henry, thanks for being here, as always.

[C]

Thank you, sir.

[A]

And thank you all so much for listening to this episode of on the Market. I'm Dave Meyer. We'll see you next time.

[D]

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