Podcast Summary: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: Zillow Forecast: Best and Worst Housing Markets of 2026
Host: Dave Meyer
Original Air Date: October 30, 2025 (Republished Dec 26, 2025)

Overview

In this episode, Dave Meyer, Head of Real Estate at BiggerPockets, dives deep into Zillow’s newly released metro-level housing price forecasts for September 2025–September 2026. He breaks down which markets are expected to outperform or lag, examines the hottest and coolest markets in 2025, discusses the paradox of buying opportunities in “correcting” cities with strong fundamentals, and provides actionable investment strategies in the current climate of slowing growth, diverging regional performance, and shifting rent dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National & Regional Market Overview

Timestamps: [01:15] – [04:10]

• Slowing Growth Nationwide:
  The U.S. housing market is broadly slowing, with even recently hot markets (Northeast, Midwest) still positive year-over-year but now growing at or below normal historical rates (~3.5%).
  • “The years of abnormally high growth appear to be over in almost every market in the United States.” (Dave Meyer, [02:45])
• Inflation Considerations:
  Nearly all major metros have negative real (inflation-adjusted) price growth—even when nominal numbers look positive.
  • “Any market where prices are up less than 3% nominally, you could argue, is actually down because it’s not growing as fast as the pace of inflation.” (Dave Meyer, [03:35])

2. Notable Market Winners and Losers

Timestamps: [04:11] – [11:00]

• Hot, Affordable Markets:
  • Midwest and Northeast, especially Wisconsin (Milwaukee, Appleton, Racine, Green Bay), as well as Connecticut, continue to outperform due to affordability.
  • “All of the markets that are still doing well... are relatively affordable, meaning the people who live in that market can afford to buy homes.” (Dave Meyer, [07:10])
• Relative Affordability in Expensive Regions:
  Even within typically high-cost areas, cities like Providence (RI), Worcester (MA), and New Haven (CT) are growing because they offer affordability relative to Boston or NYC.
• Severe Corrections – Florida & Texas:
  • Florida is flagged as being close to a statewide “crash watch” due to oversupply, insurance cost spikes, special condo assessments, and overbuilding.
    • “Florida has been just hit by so many different things... it would be safe to say Florida is on a statewide sort of crash watch.” (Dave Meyer, [05:35])
  • Metro markets like Punta Gorda and Cape Coral are down 10–13% year-over-year and aren’t forecast to improve soon.
  • Texas’ big metros (Austin, Dallas, Houston) are also experiencing flat to negative price trends, with significant oversupply.
    • “In Austin... there are 17,403 sellers right now. How many buyers? 7,568. That’s a difference of nearly 10,000 buyers missing.” (Dave Meyer, [10:10])

3. The Paradox: Opportunity in Markets with Strong Fundamentals

Timestamps: [16:24] – [19:40]

• Some of the hardest-hit markets (Austin, Nashville, Denver, Dallas) have excellent long-term fundamentals (job growth, population, universities, desirable lifestyle), yet are undergoing corrections.
  • “If you are an investor willing to take risk and want to take a big swing, you’re going to be able to buy good deals in these markets.” (Dave Meyer, [18:00])
• These markets are at risk of becoming “oversold,” presenting possible buy-low opportunities for long-term investors who can weather interim volatility.

4. Zillow’s Latest Metro Price Forecasts

Timestamps: [19:41] – [22:09]

• General Outlook:
  Most metros are expected to see flat to low-single-digit movements in either direction (–2% to +2% typical).
  • “Zillow believes that the fastest growing market over the next year will be Atlantic City, New Jersey, with 5% growth.” (Dave Meyer, [20:28])
• Projected Leaders:
  • Atlantic City NJ, Rockford IL, Concord NH, Knoxville TN, Saginaw MI, Fayetteville AR all forecasted for around 5% growth.
  • The Northeast and Midwest still lead, but expected to cool.
• Biggest Projected Decliners:
  • Louisiana (Houma, Lake Charles, Lafayette, New Orleans, Shreveport, Alexandria, Monroe), several Texas markets (Beaumont, Odessa, Corpus Christi), select California and Florida metros.
  • Most of these “bottom ten” are not predicted to see severe double-digit drops, but a continued gentle correction.
  • “Majority of markets in Zillow’s forecast are between minus 2% and plus 2%.” (Dave Meyer, [21:40])

5. Regional Rent Trends and Their Investment Implications

Timestamps: [25:10] – [29:00]

• Hottest Rent Growth:
  • Surprisingly, San Francisco leads (+5%), followed by Chicago (+4%), Fresno, San Jose, Providence, Minneapolis, Virginia Beach, Pittsburgh, New York, Richmond.
  • “Fastest year-over-year rent growth in the country goes to San Francisco, California, at 5%... interesting because prices are going down there, but rents are going up.” (Dave Meyer, [26:50])
• Largest Rent Declines:
  • Austin (–6.5%), Denver (–5%), Phoenix, Tucson, New Orleans, San Antonio, Memphis, Orlando, Dallas.
  • “Sorry Austin, but you are taking the top spot again... negative 6.5% year over year.” (Dave Meyer, [27:10])
• Key Investment Note:
  • Rents and home prices can (and do) move separately. Some markets have falling prices and rising rents, or vice versa. This affects cash-flow prospects and should drive investment decisions.
  • “You can invest in a market with declining rents and declining prices, but you gotta get a killer deal.” (Dave Meyer, [29:45])

6. Strategic Takeaways for Real Estate Investors

Timestamps: [29:42] – [36:17]

• Affordability & Supply as Prime Risk Factors:
  • Focus on markets that are both affordable (relative to local incomes) and have limited new supply. These are likely to see the smallest dips and quickest stabilization.
    • “Affordability is going to continue to drive market divergence... look at total affordability, not just price.” (Dave Meyer, [30:00])
    • “The reason we’re seeing bad conditions in Florida or in Nashville or Texas... they’re also overbuilt.” (Dave Meyer, [31:10])
• High-Risk, High-Reward Investing:
  • Buying deeply discounted properties in oversold but fundamentally strong cities (Austin, Denver, Nashville) can pay off long-term but requires patience and cash reserves.
    • “Can you buy something in Austin 10% or 15% off peak? Maybe... those kinds of numbers are intriguing.” (Dave Meyer, [32:45])
• Flipping Opportunities:
  • Flipping gets riskier in correcting markets, but price spreads between distressed and high-end homes can widen, sometimes improving margins if investors can handle longer hold times.
• Return to “Normal” Market Variation:
  • Expect a return to traditional real estate patterns: slow, steady appreciation in affordable Midwest “cash flow” markets, higher swing potential but more volatility in Sunbelt and high-growth cities.
    • “Midwest... easier doubles, harder home runs... in Austin, Denver, Vegas, Phoenix, you might hit a home run, but could strike out.” (Dave Meyer, [35:35])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the end of wild appreciation:
  “The hottest markets are now at normal.... These years of abnormally high growth appear to be over in almost every market in the United States.” (Dave Meyer, [02:55])
• On Florida’s troubles:
  “Florida is on a statewide crash watch... I think there’s a decent chance that we will see double-digit losses across the state of Florida from the peak.” (Dave Meyer, [05:35])
• On the Midwest’s outperformance:
  “Wisconsin is on fire right now.... All of these markets that are still hot are relatively affordable.” (Dave Meyer, [07:04])
• Explaining the ‘Paradox’:
  “Some of the markets... experiencing the biggest corrections... are markets with pretty good long term fundamentals.” (Dave Meyer, [16:35])
• On market strategy:
  “If you want to take more risk and pursue more reward with your own investing, now is a decent time to do it.... Not for everyone, but that is an option.” (Dave Meyer, [32:47])
• Summing up the shift:
  “It’s not normal for all markets to be going up all the time... Instead, what we’re going to see is a move back to the traditional tradeoff between appreciation and cash flow.” (Dave Meyer, [35:53])

Actionable Guidance for Listeners

• Assess both price and rental trends in your local market before making purchase decisions.
• Focus on affordability and supply to minimize risk, especially if you’re conservative.
• Consider high-risk buys in strong-fundamental, now-oversold metros—but only with a long hold time and ample cash reserves.
• For flippers, anticipate longer hold periods and research widening margins between distressed and prime homes.
• Prepare for a more traditional market, with some metros rebounding faster than others and a clear divide between cash flow- and appreciation-oriented regions going forward.

Final Thoughts

Dave leaves listeners with cautious optimism for the coming years: a potential return to normal market dynamics may be on the horizon—where investors can once again rely on regional fundamentals, steady appreciation, and calculated risk-taking.

For more housing market analysis and investor strategies, subscribe to BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast and share this episode with anyone who needs up-to-date insights on where the U.S. real estate market is heading.