Podcast Summary: BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Episode: Zillow: The Buying Window Could Be Closing in These States
Host: Dave Meyer
Guest: Dr. Kara Ng, Senior Economist, Zillow
Date: October 10, 2025

EPISODE OVERVIEW

This episode explores current U.S. housing market conditions with special focus on buyer opportunities, the dynamics behind inventory shifts, regional differences, mortgage rate forecasts, and systemic challenges in affordability. Dave Meyer and Dr. Kara Ng (Zillow) analyze whether the “buyer’s market” is about to end, discuss the impact of recent Federal Reserve policy, and dig into demographic and policy-driven obstacles for first-time buyers.

KEY DISCUSSION POINTS & INSIGHTS

1. Is the Buyer’s Window Closing?

• Current Opportunities:
  • Buyers presently enjoy more bargaining power, more options, and less competition compared to prior years.
    • “Buyers have a lot of options right now. They have more time to decide, and they have a lot of bargaining power compared to past August's and previous seasons.” (Dr. Kara Ng, 01:31)
  • Waiting for further price drops or lower rates is risky. New listings in August 2025 were at an all-time low, a sign that sellers are pulling homes off the market to wait for better conditions.
    • “New listings fell... the lowest level of new listings for the month of August in the history of Zillow's data.” (Ng, 01:31–02:22)

2. Inventory, Seller Behavior, and Market Dynamics

• Inventory Growth and Seller Response:
  • Since 2022, housing inventory grew, shifting the market from seller-favorable to more buyer-favorable.
  • Sellers now are financially stronger than during the 2008 crisis and feel less pressure to sell at unfavorable prices:
    • “Today's seller... is usually in a stronger financial position. They are not forced to sell.” (Ng, 03:36)
  • Sellers are pulling back heaviest in Texas and Florida due to overbuilding and softening prices (05:01–05:31).
• Healthier Market Dynamics:
  • Where inventory is rising & prices are softening, sellers are not flooding the market, which prevents sharp price declines.

3. Regional Variations

• Sun Belt (Texas, Florida):
  • Former hot spots now see inventory accumulation; sellers reluctant to list, waiting for conditions to improve.
• Midwest & Northeast:
  • Still a seller’s market; inventory remains constrained due to underbuilding (06:05). New listings are more stable or rising.

4. Navigating Uncertainty as a Buyer

• When to Buy?
  • Focus should be on personal financial readiness and needs, not on perfect timing the market.
    • “Buying a home is not like going to the grocery store and impulse buying a candy bar... You want to make sure that it fits your needs for now until the foreseeable future.” (Ng, 06:34)
  • Mortgage rates may fall slightly but likely to remain in the 6–7% range (08:19–08:52).
  • If rates drop significantly, prices could rebound, offsetting the gain in affordability (08:52–09:03).
• Mortgage Rate Uncertainty:
  • Economic forces (stubborn inflation vs softening employment) explain the 6–7% rate band. Further rate drops would require unfavorable economic conditions (like higher unemployment).
    • “Mortgage rates falling helps with affordability. But what would it take for mortgage rates to fall? The most obvious thing is if there's softening in the labor market, which, you know, hopefully it's not your job that's been softened.” (Ng, 09:13)

5. Are We Returning to a “Normal” Market?

• Seasonality:
  • Some pre-pandemic seasonality patterns may return as the market stabilizes and mortgage rates settle, but the pandemic’s disruptions and new “mortgage rate seasonality” remain factors (16:47–18:00).
• Low Mobility:
  • Not just “rate lock,” but also “job lock”—lower job change rates are reducing transactions. Most moves still stem from new jobs; other life events prompt moves, but less urgently (15:00–16:47).

6. Affordability & Access for First-Time and Minority Buyers

• Barriers:
  • Down payments remain the biggest challenge, especially for renters and first-generation buyers.
    • “Compared to five years ago, the amount of income you need to make rent as a renter went up by $20,000... which makes saving for down payment very, very hard.” (Ng, 21:35)
  • Many first-time/minority buyers don’t have family resources to help, increasing the difficulty (23:12).
• Zillow’s Down Payment Assistance Tool:
  • Zillow now displays local down payment assistance info with property listings to level the playing field and increase awareness (23:11–23:51).

7. Long-Term Affordability and Housing Shortage

• Supply Solutions:
  • Structural underbuilding: The U.S. faces a 4.7 million unit housing shortage (2023 data).
  • Short- and long-term solutions require deregulation, increased density (ADUs, townhomes, duplexes), and streamlining construction (24:54–27:24).
• Rent vs. Buy Trends:
  • Softer markets, but renting increasingly preferred as buying becomes unaffordable for many. Rise of “dual shoppers” monitoring both rental and for-sale listings (27:35–28:49).
• Future Outlook:
  • Five- to ten-year prospects depend on increasing building and unlocking more supply.
    • “Over five, ten years, that's when you could possibly make a dent in the housing shortage. So if we are able to make it easier for builders to build, we might be able to shrink that gap.” (Ng, 29:28).

MEMORABLE QUOTES

• On Buyer Decision-Making:
  • “If you were shopping earlier in the season and held off... check what listings you can afford now, because it might be that a home that was out of reach before is now within reach and it fits your needs.” (Ng, 06:34)
• On Seller Pullback:
  • “Sellers are kind of putting a floor on how much prices can fall.” (Ng, 04:23)
• On Mortgage Rates:
  • “We're fighting two opposing forces... mortgage rates can take lower if we have a softening labor market... at the same time you also have inflation that's relatively stubborn.” (Ng, 13:01)
• On Affordability:
  • “The answer... is by building more. The US as a whole is just structurally underbuilt.” (Ng, 24:54)
• On Renters vs. Buyers:
  • “It is cheaper in a lot of markets to rent than to buy. So when the for sale market, you’re hitting up against these affordability ceilings, it means that these people will go into the rental market.” (Ng, 27:35)

IMPORTANT SEGMENT TIMESTAMPS

| Time | Topic | |----------|-----------| | 00:06–01:19 | Introduction of guest and Zillow’s market insights | | 01:31–02:36 | Discussion of current buyer opportunity and risk | | 03:36–04:35 | Sellers’ new strategies and foreclosure avoidance | | 04:41–06:05 | Regional inventory shifts: Sun Belt vs. Northeast | | 06:34–08:19 | Best practices for buyers: affordability & timing | | 08:19–09:13 | Mortgage rate trends, future expectations | | 13:01–14:24 | What's driving the 6–7% mortgage range | | 15:00–16:47 | Why transaction volume is down: job mobility & rate lock | | 16:47–18:00 | Will seasonality in housing return? | | 21:35–24:11 | Zillow’s affordability initiatives and systemic barriers | | 24:54–27:24 | Long-term supply/demand imbalance, importance of building | | 27:35–28:49 | Rent vs. buy dynamics, the “dual shopper” trend | | 29:28–30:07 | Kara’s long-term outlook for the market |

SUMMARY

This episode provided a grounded, data-driven view of the late-2025 housing market. Buyers have more leverage but must weigh financial readiness carefully, as new listings decline in many states. The gap between seller and buyer sentiment is regional, with Southern and Sun Belt markets cooling while Northeast/Midwest markets remain robust for sellers. Mortgage rates will likely remain in a “stalemate” as the economy tugs between inflation and labor softness. Affordability remains the biggest hurdle, especially for first-time and minority buyers, with Zillow advocating for better information and increased housing supply. Long-term, only increased building and density can resolve the persistent shortage and restore affordability to the market.

This summary covers substantive points from the episode, preserving its tone and insights, and is designed for listeners and non-listeners alike to quickly grasp the episode’s essential takeaways and actionable insights.