← Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis
Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis
Highlights from O'Reilly's No Spin News - March 17, 2025
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No Spin News, March 17, 2025
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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [00:19]
Bill O'Reilly
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- [00:23]
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- [01:04]
Bill O'Reilly
Another day, another controversy, or four or five. It really is madness in Washington. All right? But there's one story everybody's missing and I am not missing it, which is why you're here. And that is the subject of this evening's Talking Points Memo. It is now Donald Trump versus Vladimir Putin. Stared down big time, could get very intense. It's all about Ukraine, of course. As we reported, the Ukrainians, after being brow beaten by Donald Trump, have agreed to a ceasefire for 30 days. In that time, there would be a peace negotiation, but Russia has to cooperate. Now, Putin today said, yeah, maybe I will, but maybe I won't. Okay? Now, Putin is evil. And I know a tremendous about him, tremendous amount about him from researching my upcoming book, Confronting Evil. This is a bad man. I think, and I could be wrong, that he is insane. All right, let that sink in. I don't think he's rational. Bad Vlad Putin. I could be wrong. I'm not a psychiatrist, but I am not wrong about this. It's a showdown between Donald Trump and Putin. So we can expect a lot of back and forth. All right? Russia's not going to do this. Putin's not going to do that. You'll hear it every hour on the hour. Don't get emotional about it. I will tell you what's real and what isn't real. There is a negotiation going on now behind the scenes between the Trump administration, Steve Witkoff and Lavrov, the foreign minister and second most powerful man in Russia. Okay? And they're setting the table for a ceasefire that I think Putin is going to have to do, because he knows that if he does it, President Trump will have to attack him. Now, what do I mean by that? This is very important for you to understand. Trump cannot back down from Putin. He cannot look weak. Can't do it. All right, so if Putin is unreasonable, after all the emotion that Trump's put into Ukraine, Trump. Trump's got to punish him. And how that will happen will be unbelievably strict economic sanctions, far more than they have now. Trump will close the banking system all over the world to Russian money. That's what will come. Now, if some banks defy Trump, they'll go out of business, because American Express, for example, will do business. There's a million different ways that Donald Trump as President of the United States can punish any bank that doesn't cooperate. So Russia's whole financial system will collapse. That's how Trump is going to go after Putin. If Putin doesn't cooperate. Putin knows that. He knows, okay? And Russia economy is weak anyway. So I don't know in and out. I can't possibly know that. But I do have the best sources in the country about what's happening inside the Trump administration, Period. I do. Now, today, you may have noticed that the President met with Mark Ruta. He is the leader, the Secretary General of NATO. He came to Washington. That's not an accident. So NATO and America have to join together with no dissent so bad Vlad has to know he's up against that colossus. Can't be anybody sniping. But here in America, there's plenty of sniping, because the Democratic Party does not want this ceasefire because it would give Trump a huge victory in the eyes of the American people. So the subversive Democratic Party, not all Democrats, but. But the party hierarchy. And we'll get into Schumer in a moment. Schumer's most powerful Democrat. They don't want this. No. That's why you've seen the corrupt media parrot this garbage that we went over yesterday. So let me back this up, okay? It's always good to back it up with facts. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse is a outspoken individual and he's close to Schumer. So White House does a lot of the public stuff because Schumer doesn't like to do that. White House went on msnbc, which is the outlet that all Democrats use to get a message out. And here's what he said.
- [06:10]
Sheldon Whitehouse
Could you imagine Franklin Delano Roosevelt, a great president, telling Winston Churchill, you know, you're going to have to make a deal with Herr Hitler and We're cutting off lend lease until you do. And by the way, you may not be able to keep your whole island. That would not have been a great president. That would have been a cowardly and shameful president. And that is the position that Donald Trump has consistently been in with respect to Zelensky versus Putin.
- [06:37]
Bill O'Reilly
Okay, that's ridiculous. Number one, Winston Churchill in Great Britain were not in any danger of losing the war at that time. They needed U.S. assistance, of course, but Hitler wasn't a lock to defeat England. In fact, in the Battle of Britain, Churchill and the British won. They beat the Luftwaffe and they beat Hitler. And Hitler never invaded England. Couldn't do it. Didn't have the power to do it. Okay, so that's the big deal. Because Ukraine can't beat Putin. The totally different playing field, it's not the same. Now, White House doesn't know that. He's not smart enough to know it. But here's the kicker. So in February, late February of 1945, middle of February, there was a conference between, among FDR, American President Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin at Yalta. Stalin, of course, the dictator of Soviet Union. This was to figure out what to do after the Germans surrendered, which they were going to do. And they held out till May, but it was a fait accompli. Germans lost. Okay, so what do we do at that meeting? Franklin Roosevelt, who was ill, gave Stalin everything. Everything. Okay. And that led to the Cold War, because Stalin just rolled across and the Soviet troops occupied Eastern Europe. They violated everything. They did whatever they wanted. Now, I write about this extensively in killing Patton because Patton knew that was going to happen, was screaming about it. But you can't give in to Stalin. And FDR did. And Churchill was appalled. But at that time, Churchill didn't have any power. It was America versus the Soviet Union because Britain was depleted after World War II. Churchill knew what Roosevelt was doing was giving Stalin everything. So White House had no idea. Oh, FDR never would have done that. A great president. Look, I don't want to call a sitting US Senator names, but that guy doesn't know anything about it, about history, about anything. All he's in business to do is to undermine Trump, trying to get a ceasefire in Ukraine, which is a good thing. Yes. Ukraine's going to lose about 10% of its territory, and I feel terrible about that, but there's no other alternative. That war will never end. Putin's not going to stop unless Trump forces him to. As Trump forced Zelensky to go to the table. Zelenskyy didn't want to stop the war. I don't know why his population being brutalized. He's not going to win. Yeah, I understand you don't want to give away 10% of your territory, but sometimes in history you have to do that. You just have to. So when you hear all of this stuff coming out of the Democratic Party, you know that it's not true. There have been many, many times when wars have stopped and one side doesn't get what it wants. And it's wrong. It's wrong. But this is not a fair world. The best thing for Ukraine now is to stop the fighting, regroup, sign a mineral deal with the USA which gets us on their turf. Okay. And then hope that today's episode is sponsored by Delete Me. Have you or someone you know been a victim of identity theft? It might be because anyone on the web can buy your private details leading to just that. The solution, it's called Deleteme, a subscription service that removes your personal info from hundreds of data brokers. Delete Me works round the clock to constantly monitor and remove your personal information so the hard work is done for you. It even sends personalized privacy reports so you can see what was found, where it was found and what's been removed. Take control of your data. Keep your private life private. By signing up for Delete Me right now. You can get 20% off a delete Me plan by texting no spin to 64000. That's no spin. All one word to 64000 message and data rates may apply. See terms for details. I rely on physical precious metals like gold and silver to protect my savings. And the only company I trust is American Hartford Gold. A tax advantaged gold IRA can protect your savings from inflation, recessions and more. You can even roll over your 401k or IRA tax and penalty free. With thousands of five star ratings and an A from the Better Business Bureau. American Hartford Gold has delivered billions in precious metals. Trust American Hartford Gold to help you. Call or text American Hartford Gold. Tell them Bill O'Reilly sent you for up to $15,000 of free silver on qualifying orders. 8663-265576-86326-5576 or you can text BILL to 998-899 again 866-326-5576 or text BILL to 998-899. The Trump administration NATO bolster the forces against Putin. I have no confidence Putin will obey anything. They'll sign it, but he's evil and insane, in my opinion. That's the memo. So we have a very important interview here. You know him, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo under President Trump. He's also the head of the CIA, also a congressman from Kansas. He joins us now from his new appointment at Columbia University. Now, I can't think of a better way to start your academic career by going to Columbia when the president just pulled $400 million out of there. I hope you had your contract signed before that. And they're deporting students, the homeland Security. And there you are, you show up from Kansas right in the middle of it. So can you straighten the place out or what?
- [13:45]
Mike Pompeo
Impeccable timing as always, Bill. First of all, it's great to be back with you.
- [13:49]
Bill O'Reilly
Thank you.
- [13:49]
Mike Pompeo
I looked the. It's interesting. I'm actually happy that I have this opportunity to go to Colombia. It's a place that has had all kinds of challenges. We've all seen them. Violence, protests, anti Semitism running rampant, a faculty that is left of, left of center way too often. And I was invited there to come be a different voice and to share both, both my views as a political matter, but importantly, my observations as a practitioner who had to actually deliver security for the United States. And so it'll be fun. It's a very challenging time for the university, frankly, all of America's major universities. And I hope I can be a constructive part of getting them back to something that honors the traditions that these great places had.
- [14:34]
Bill O'Reilly
Now, no looney students have given you a hard time so far, right?
- [14:38]
Mike Pompeo
No, my interactions so far have been great. Kids have been interested. Many of them didn't agree with me on much. Some of them agreed with me on some, and a handful were more simpatico, if you will. But nobody's given a hard time.
- [14:50]
Bill O'Reilly
Let us know if that happened. You know, I'll come out there. I was born in Columbia Presbyterian Hospital, so they have me on campus. All right, let's go to. Let's go to Ukraine. So my hypothesis. Let me use that word. But I. It's not really a hypothesis because I know President Trump, as you know pretty well, and I do talk to him. So he doesn't want to alienate Putin. He wants to soften Putin up so he gets him to a ceasefire discussion. And that's why you're not seeing call Putin names and do all that kind of stuff. He also wants to tamp down Zelensky's arrogance, which we saw. Is this the wrong strategy on Ukraine?
- [15:37]
Mike Pompeo
Well, Bill, what you're describing. There are the personal interactions. Right. So that's a very personalized view of this. I think both of those are correct. There's no reason for the Commander in chief of the United States to mock or call names for any leader. You remember with Chairman Kim, he'd say we exchanged love letters. He talked about Xi Jinping in glowing terms from time to time. That was, that was the personal same with Zelinsky. In that sense, I think you're right. I think he was trying to make sure zelensky understood. Without U.S. support, they were going nowhere. And, And I'm untroubled by either of those. The real proof is what's the policy? What's the outcome that President Trump's seeking? And from my vantage point, President Trump has always been someone who understood winning, and in this case can't be the case that Putin can be perceived as having won. Whatever the outcome, whatever the geography, whatever the disposition, in the end, we, we can't. That, that kind of aggression can't be rewarded because it'll get you more of it. And if there was one thing I'm proud of from our first four years, Bill, is we were pretty good at deterring the bad guys from doing exactly what they did to President Biden and invading Europe. We were pretty good at convincing folks like Hamas not to invade Israel on our watch. President Trump's pretty good at deterrence, and that's what he's going to try to get back. I'm counting on it.
- [16:55]
Bill O'Reilly
Okay, but you're going to have to get. Let Putin save a little face. He's not going to surrender because he doesn't care about how many people are dead or anything like that. He just cares about himself. So you got to give him an exit ramp off. I think Putin wants the ramp, but you're dealing with an evil man here. He's just flat out evil. Do you believe that there will be a ceasefire? See, I said once Trump was elected, I think that ceasefire is going to happen. Do you believe it?
- [17:30]
Mike Pompeo
Yeah, there'll be a ceasefire. But the interesting question is really the one that you pose, which is you have an evil dictator like Vladimir Putin, who has to date evidenced nothing that suggests he's actually looking for that off ramp that you described. Maybe he is, but he's been pretty good at masking any, any willingness to concede a single thing. In the end, though, what, what I think, how. I think this ends up the, the call it face save and call it what you will, I, I think he wants to be Back in the global world, his economy back connected to the global international system. There's the, there's, the solution is that you find a mechanism by which to permit Russian activity back in the economic system. We, we rebuilt Japan. Right. We've, we have. There's a long history. When these wars end, we, we allow these economies, the people of those countries to engage in the world again. That's what I think Putin desperately needs for his own political stability back home. But also that's the ticket to give him something to say, look, look, look what I got us back.
- [18:25]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah, and, but if you give him that ticket, you got to have European peacekeepers in there, so you've got to give the Ukrainians some assurance. I mean, Trump was smart not to sign a document saying Putin breaks the ceasefire. United States going to go in with troops. You can't do that, but you can negotiate a deal where the UN or the EU would put, and you call them rebuilding, you know, security to rebuild. And it'd be good if Putin kicked in a couple of billion, too, which he'll make easily by, you know, having the sanctions lifted on the oil stuff. So you, you know Putin pretty well. A lot of people just think that he is some kind of crazy guy. I don't see him that way.
- [19:09]
Mike Pompeo
I just think he's flat out evil, not crazy. And I've been criticized for saying he's actually pretty shrewd. And while he, while he screwed this up, he thought he'd get to Kiev, he thought he'd get victory on the ground. Terrible strategic mistake, no doubt about it. He's not crazy. He is evil. And the rationality flows from that. I don't think there's any doubt that his intentions were even greater than that. In my judgment, he wasn't fearing NATO was going to attack him. For goodness sake. That's just nutty. He was trying to begin the revisit of something greater for Russia.
- [19:46]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah, just like Georgia and Belarus, he was trying to duplicate that.
- [19:51]
Mike Pompeo
That's it. And he didn't get it. It was a fail. And now he's got to find a way.
- [19:55]
Bill O'Reilly
So now you got to give him a push out, but you can't hammer them between the eyes like the idiot Democrats are trying to do. You say to them, well, if you do that, you'll never get a ceasefire. And they have no answer. Let's go to China. So China slapped tariffs on the USA Today. That situation seems to be deteriorating. Is it?
- [20:16]
Mike Pompeo
I think it is. And I know some will want to blame President Trump for That I think this is all Xi Jinping, this challenge that's being faced by the entire world. And by the way, it's connected to Russia. We shouldn't forget for a second that the primary consumer of Russian energy today is the Chinese Communist Party getting discounted crude oil and gas out of Russia. China is a huge beneficiary of this war continuing in Ukraine, in Europe. But I think it's deteriorating because Xi Jinping now believes that he's got a place where he can actually exert influence and shape things in a way that his predecessors didn't believe. The old. The old. This is a rough translation from Mandrel. You'll have to forgive me, but the old motto was hide your power and bide your time. And Xi Jinping's no longer hiding his power. He's showing it full force. And it's going to require a real American response.
- [21:07]
Bill O'Reilly
Well, when you say a response, everybody gets nervous. Is that going to be a military response? Can't do that. Right.
- [21:14]
Mike Pompeo
Well, Xi Jinping is going to. We're not going to attack China militarily.
- [21:18]
Bill O'Reilly
Right.
- [21:19]
Mike Pompeo
But Xi Jinping is already running into ships in the Philippines, the South China Sea.
- [21:23]
Bill O'Reilly
He's doing that in the last five years, though. So as long as he doesn't touch Taiwan, then the US Is going to allow some of that to happen. But I see it this way, and maybe I'm wrong. I think that China's economy is really wobbling, just like Russia's. But China is more intense and she, like Putin probably at this point in history, would want a better economic situation and he would be willing to deal for that. Am I wrong?
- [22:00]
Mike Pompeo
I think you're wrong. I think, I think Xi Jinping has concluded that this is the moment. So you've heard some of our generals talking about 2027. And I, I don't want, I can't put a marker down as for time. But I think Xi is willing to sacrifice an awful lot of economy to gain a global advantage to get closer to the political hegemony that he seeks. It's going to be really hard. I agree. They've got huge long run demographic problems. Their real estate industry is way worse than anybody even knows. Over levered. So there are many, many challenges. But I think she has concluded that it's no longer time to supplicate to the United States on the economic front. And so he's going to push and push and push until the United States pushes back. And I think you see President Trump.
- [22:41]
Bill O'Reilly
Well, he's being pushed back 25% is a pushback. But if you're opinion is correct, why didn't she move under Biden, who is extremely weak? Why. Why did he live four years of Biden and he didn't really do anything that catastrophic?
- [23:02]
Mike Pompeo
Yeah, I don't think, Bill, I don't think for a second he's going to invade Taiwan. I don't. The military invasion there I think he believes is unnecessary. He's going to. His view is he's going to get Taiwan through propaganda politics. Same way he took Hong Kong. Right. Force, choke them off, make their economy more difficult. And eventually the people will come to see that, hey, you know, what's that? Why fight this? And so I think this is a longer march for him and I think he made real progress on that in the Biden administration. In the Pacific Islands, in Africa. You saw what's gone on in Panama under President Biden, where the Chinese got a foothold on our doorstep. I think this is a determined strategic effort, not a Xi Jinping military takeover. He knows he can't actually win, that the United States would, in the end, crush him.
- [23:50]
Bill O'Reilly
The press, the American press portraying Donald Trump over the world as a villain. That hasn't stopped. And then they point to Trump denying Keev US intel and then Trump saying to NATO, we're not going to do any military exercises. Take them one by one. The, as you know better than anybody, the reportage on the intel is just flat out ridiculous because British intelligence gets everything we have and they just give it to Kiev. So it doesn't matter what any of the former CIA chief, doesn't matter what Trump said. Well, we're not going to give anything. The Brits have it all and they'll give it to them. Am I wrong there?
- [24:33]
Mike Pompeo
I think that reporting is highly hyped. I always joke, Bill, that if I watch the, if I watch the BBC, I wouldn't like America either.
- [24:39]
Bill O'Reilly
Right, Right. But it's such. Most people don't understand that. They don't understand how it works. Okay. You do because you were in there and I do because I've been around for so long. The second military exercise thing, I didn't quite get why Trump did that. Do you know?
- [24:59]
Mike Pompeo
No, I don't know. Look, we've been, we've been trying to help them with training for an awfully long time. When I was CIA director, we were helping the Ukrainians. It was President Trump who provided the Javelin missiles. Right. People forget President Trump did that. It was President Trump who put American energy in the front, making Vladimir Putin's resources worth less. I don't know why he chose that particular.
- [25:22]
Bill O'Reilly
It might have to do with Putin in some phone calls.
- [25:25]
Mike Pompeo
It might. And by the way, I'm not privy to any of that. I'm not either trying to solve this.
- [25:29]
Bill O'Reilly
But that's the only thing I can think of. All right. Now, a lot of people, including myself, believed that you would have been an asset to this Trump administration, but you weren't invited. Do you know why?
- [25:45]
Mike Pompeo
No, I, I, I don't know the particulars of why, but again, I give presidents lots of latitude to pick the team they want. He picked.
- [25:52]
Bill O'Reilly
But you did a good job.
- [25:53]
Mike Pompeo
Picked entirely new team, Bill.
- [25:54]
Bill O'Reilly
But he even said you did a good job. He told me you did a good job. So I worked hard. Yeah. I mean, I was surprised. A man of your experience and you know, all of these players, I would have put you as Defense Secretary. I don't think Hegseth is the guy. I would have put you there. But you must have thought about it a little bit, Mr. Secretary, because it is a natural fit. You succeeded with Trump the first time around. Did you guys have a falling out of some kind?
- [26:28]
Mike Pompeo
Oh, no. Look, I don't know why he chose the people he did. He went through a lot of folks, Bill. I'll leave to him the personnel choices. I had said before, if he asked me to go serve, whatever role, whether it was in the Defense Department, wherever, I'd happily go serve. And he just made a different decision.
- [26:45]
Bill O'Reilly
I think he's going to ask you. Today's episode is sponsored by Delete Me. Have you or someone you know been a victim of identity theft? It might be because anyone on the web can buy your private details leading to just that. The solution. It's called Delete Me. A subscription service that removes your personal info from hundreds of data brokers. Delete Me works round the clock to constantly monitor and remove your personal information so the hard work is done for you. It even sends personalized privacy reports so you can see what was found, where it was found, and what's been removed. Take control of your data. Keep your private life private by signing up for Delete Me right now. You can get 20% off a delete Me plan by texting no spin to 64000. That's no spin. All one word to 64000. Message and data rates may apply. See Terms for details. Did you know that Fast Growing Trees is the biggest online nursery in the USA with thousands of different plants and more than 2 million happy customers? They have all the plants your yard needs, like fruit trees, privacy trees, shrubs, and much more. Whatever plants you're interested in, Fast Growing Trees has you covered. Just order online, get your dream yard delivered right to your door. And this spring, they have the best deals, up to half off on select plants. Plus, my listeners get 15% off their first purchase. When using Code Bill at checkout. That's an additional 15 off@fast growingtrees.com with code BILL@ checkout, now is a perfect time to plant. That's Fast Growing trees dot com. Don't forget, use Code Bill to save offers valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions apply. I do. I think he's going to pull you back. Next time I see him, I'm going to get to the bottom of that because that surprised me because you know how.
- [29:06]
Mike Pompeo
You let me know, Bill?
- [29:07]
Bill O'Reilly
Of course I'll let everybody know. You know, the President is unpredictable. I think that's an accurate word, right?
- [29:17]
Mike Pompeo
Yeah, that's fair.
- [29:18]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah. He goes by his gut. I agree with you that maybe he wanted a fresh look. I like Rubio because he's a good counterbalance to Trump. I think that's a fairly good play.
- [29:37]
Mike Pompeo
I agree. No, I agree. I think Secretary Rubio is going to do a very fine job because when.
- [29:42]
Bill O'Reilly
He put Tillerson, the oil guy, who you saved his bacon, remember that?
- [29:47]
Mike Pompeo
I went vividly, what?
- [29:50]
Bill O'Reilly
That was a disaster. And then he brought you in because you're the pro, and then you guys straightened it out. When Trump left office, when he was defeated in 20, the war was fairly stable then. I mean, it wasn't, as you pointed out earlier in this interview, there wasn't a lot of threats on the doorstep. Would that be accurate?
- [30:13]
Mike Pompeo
We had things in a pretty good place. If you think about what fell apart relatively quickly. Europe fell apart. The advancements that were the Abraham Accords in the Middle east were dead stopped even before the massacres of October 7th. And then, you know, we, we had come close to delivering on President Trump's commitment to reducing our forces in Afghanistan to zero or near zero. And President Biden came in and pulled the plug. And we all know the calamity that followed there, not only the 13 dead and many, many injured, but I think much of the chaos that ensued in the final two and a half years of the Biden administration was a direct result of, of that epic failure in Afghanistan. None of that happened for our four years.
- [30:54]
Bill O'Reilly
There's no doubt in my mind that that's true. All right, Mr. Secretary, really appreciate your time and how Busy. You are trying to straighten Columbia University out. If you need any help, I'm 20 miles away. I'll be happy to.
- [31:07]
Mike Pompeo
It's going to be bigger than me, but I'll give it a go.
- [31:09]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah. I mean, you'll be happy to see me and you know, all of that. And I hope you'll be available to us from time to time because I don't think there's anybody else who knows the world better than you do. I mean, you got a pretty good handle on it. And again, we're very grateful that very grateful you're speaking with us today. Thank you.
- [31:27]
Mike Pompeo
Thank you. Bless you, Bill. Have a good day.
- [31:28]
Bill O'Reilly
See you soon. All right. Joining us now in Washington is a guy, very smart guy, Dr. Hal Brand. She's got a new book out. I have it. I'm perusing it, the Eurasian Century, Hot Wars, Cold wars and the Making of the Modern Worlds, out in January. He is Distinguished professor of Global affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. It's a lot to get on a business card there, Doctor, you know, allow that stuff on one little card. So but anyway, you know what you're talking about, what I'm interested in is the change and the danger rise. So we got with Russia and China allying to hurt the west over Ukraine, that that's a pretty I mean, everybody knows the situation, but that's very intense. Right.
- [32:21]
Hal Brands
It's probably the most dangerous situation we've faced as a country since the early Cold War because it's Russia and China that are working together. China has been a major supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine, but it's also Iran and North Korea. Iran has provided a lot of the drones, and North Korea's even provided some of the manpower that Putin has used in this brutal assault on Ukraine. And so it's a situation where you have four of the bad guys working together at the heart of Eurasia to try to shape the wider world.
- [32:49]
Bill O'Reilly
But they're not trying to shape it in any good way. Right. They're totalitarian.
- [32:54]
Hal Brands
That's right. That's right. I mean, these are all deeply autocratic, deeply undemocratic regimes. They all want to carve out big, big spheres of influence which they would probably rule in a pretty brutal fashion. They want to bring about a world that is totally different than the one that Americans have known and have done so well in over the past.
- [33:16]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah. Well, there's no place for freedom or free enterprise at all. Reminds me of the late 1930s when you had the Axis powers, Hitler, Mussolini, and some others joining together to try to impose fascism on the world. And then you had Japan, which was a fascist state as well, in the Pacific. Is there any difference?
- [33:39]
Hal Brands
I think there are some pretty strong parallels. Back then, the problem was that you had a handful of separate, aggressive countries that were all sort of doing their own thing in their particular regions, but the combined effect of that was to destabilize the wider world. And, of course, eventually the United States got dragged into the conflicts that resulted. Today you have a similar phenomenon where Russia and China and Iran and North Korea, they, you know, they all want their own things, they all have their own agendas, but they're all putting pressure on the international system that America and its friends built at the same time. And if anything, they're cooperating more closely than the Axis powers did in the late 30s and early 40s.
- [34:20]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah. Now, from your vantage point, is there anything that President Trump should be doing or should not be doing? Wayne, if you were to have dinner with him tonight, would you have any suggestions for him?
- [34:35]
Hal Brands
I think he's on the right track in terms of putting a lot of pressure on Iran. I think Iran is the weakest member of this autocratic axis, and it is the one that has been most softened up over the past year, mostly by Israel, for the imposition of this pressure. And so he's got a good chance to really squeeze the Iranians and maybe get a stronger nuclear deal than the US got back in 2015 under the Obama administration. The thing I would tell him not to do is not to think that he's going to be successful in prying Russia and China apart. You've sometimes heard this, not so much from Trump, but from people around him, that if the war in Ukraine ends, maybe the United States can enlist Russia to help contain China. I just don't think that's how it works.
- [35:19]
Bill O'Reilly
Let me challenge you. Let me challenge you on that. Okay, so we got Johns Hopkins, You. We got Harvard, me. All right. It was kind of like a little, little game show here. If Trump makes the Ukraine deal, part of that deal has to be that Putin gets back in G7. He gets back into the Western economies where he can sell his oil. That's primarily what he's got. Okay. China that he doesn't need. Putin doesn't need China as much as he needs it now. So what Trump is trying to do is lure him back into the European sector and then de emphasize, because, as you know, historically, the Russians and the Chinese hate each other. I don't know if that's gone away, but I don't think they're buddies. And China's power dwarfs Putin's power. Putin can't be happy about that. Putin needs money, he needs commerce. So that's what Trump is thinking. Where is he going wrong?
- [36:21]
Hal Brands
I think the theory of the case is exactly as you described it. I think the challenge is sort of twofold. One is, how much do you have to give Putin to get him to put some daylight between him and China? And I worry that the answer might be quite a lot. And the second point is that Putin knows that if he cuts a deal with Trump, there's no guarantee that deal is going to last beyond January 20, 2029. And so he will welcome, you know, reduced sanctions, greater economic engagement from with the west, because I'm sure he's not entirely comfortable with the degree of dependence he's developed on China. But he's not going to push China to the side of the road because that's all.
- [37:02]
Bill O'Reilly
I don't think he's going to push it. But China can't do him too much good economically other than buying his oil. But anyway, that's Trump's mindset. And I think the deal is going to have to come down. Whereas Ukraine will lose 10% of its territory, but there'll be, you know, bogus elections. That's what they'll throw. And then EU will provide peacekeepers. USA will make the mineral deal, and that puts a structure for the USA inside Ukraine. And then Putin will be allowed back into the G7 and he'll go to all the meetings and all. That's what I think is going to happen. You got anything else that you think might pop in there?
- [37:43]
Hal Brands
I would just say I still think the critical element is whether there's going to be a US Backstop for the European security.
- [37:50]
Bill O'Reilly
That would be. That would be the mineral deal.
- [37:53]
Hal Brands
I think that's part of it. Yeah. I would just say, I think that the, you know, the Europeans know that they're going to be in trouble if they get attacked by the Russians, if the US Isn't there to help. And so they don't need the US There holding their hand every day. They just need a promise that the US Will be there in extremists if things really.
- [38:11]
Bill O'Reilly
No, but they'll up their spending. They're not suicidal over there. They're greedy, the Europeans. And interestingly enough, you look at the ambassadorships, you ought to have your students do this, who Trump has appointed in all of the European capitals. These are hard. These are tough guys.
- [38:31]
Rosie O'Donnell
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- [39:13]
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- [39:47]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah, so, and.
- [39:49]
Hal Brands
I think the Europeans have gotten the message on defense. Oh yeah, that's great. It's just, it's just going to take them a few years to get to the point where they're a little bit more self reliant.
- [39:59]
Bill O'Reilly
Now Americans by and large don't understand much of this, I'm not being supercilious word of the day, but they just don't know. They don't know what tariffs are. It's why I took the time to explain it. They don't know the dynamic. They just want to live their lives. They don't want to get involved with geopolitics. They don't understand the dynamic that is taking place and the huge changes in the world. This is a deficit for America that they don't understand. Right?
- [40:26]
Hal Brands
Yeah. I think it's also a testament to the success of what the US has tried to do over the past 80 years. You know, we've been successful in preventing other global wars from breaking out, you know, Great Depressions from breaking out. And so it's become a little bit easier to forget what all this is meant to achieve. You know, my, my grandfather, he flew. He was a navigator in B24s and B25s in Europe during World War II. And so nobody had to explain to him why American global engagement mattered. And I think we've lost a little bit of that over the years.
- [40:56]
Bill O'Reilly
Well, we have lost it now. We're in a deep age of narcissism and apathy. But here's the kicker on this. Got a lot of left wingers in the press screaming that Trump isn't pounding Putin as a fascist dog. If you look at Yalta, what Roosevelt did with Stalin, I mean, he kissed him up and down, in and out, every way. And he had to know, because Churchill knew that Stalin was going to break every treaty in the world, which he did, and come right across and try to dominate Europe, which he did. But Roosevelt said, look, I got to stop this world war. I got to stop it. It's very, very akin to what Trump is doing. Last word.
- [41:42]
Hal Brands
I think there are definitely some parallels. I think Trump thinks we just need to get sort of the moralizing out of US Foreign policy and focus on hard power realities. There's something to be said for that. But I would just also point out that one of the great things about America is that we do stand up for principle in the world. And so I just hope we won't correct too far.
- [42:00]
Bill O'Reilly
Trump doesn't see it that way. He's not. He's not one of those guys. He's a businessman, cold blooded businessman. So you're right. The theory about, you know, here comes America to liberate everybody, not this president. He's looking out for Americans. He wants peace. He doesn't want war. He's not a warmonger at all. Okay. But he's not looking at it like we have a responsibility to the rest of the world to keep them safe. Would you say that was accurate?
- [42:31]
Hal Brands
I think that's a very accurate description of how Trump sees the world.
- [42:34]
Bill O'Reilly
All right, professor, we really appreciate you coming on. Thank you very much. All right, smart life WalletHub. Good financial website. It's worth your time. They have a poll, only 200 respondents, though, about tipping. Nine out of 10Americans think that automatic service charges should be banned. So if you get your check, usually in a restaurant, if you have a party of more than six, they'll build in a 15 to 20% tip. I don't have a problem with that. But more and more restaurants now are forcing you to tip at a certain level. I do have a problem with that. And so do 90% of Americans. The other questions are, do you think tipping culture has gotten out of control? 86% of Americans say yes, 14 no. Are businesses replacing employee salaries with 10 tips? Interesting question. Yes. 55. No. 45. Should automatic service charges be banned? Yes. 83. No. 17. Even when you go in for a takeout just to pick up, they're asking for tips and all that. So here's my thing. I want to be generous because people, younger people are working and you know, all of that. So I tip 20% usually. I gave a guy 10% last weekend because he was the worst waiter I've ever seen. I should have given him nothing. But I gave him 10 because I felt sorry for him if he couldn't even do that job, what's his future like? About 20 is what I do. I do not tip. I'm picking up stuff that I order over the phone. I mean, that's insane. She handed me the bag, that's it, I'm out of there. And I don't tip. If they, if I have a credit card thing and they turn, twirl the thing around and go, okay, I said for what? I called, I gave. You cooked it up. Your hand to me. What am I tipping for? You didn't come to the table and pour water. You didn't do any of that. So I'm a purist in that regard, but I think Americans are generous. If you do get good service, 20 is good. Rosie O'Donnell moves to Ireland. Okay, that's fine. I'm going to do a big YouTube thing on it beginning tomorrow. I hope she's happy in Ireland, but what disturbs me is her 12 year old daughter Roland.
- [44:57]
Clay O'Donnell
I'm happy, Clay is happy. I miss my other kids, I miss my friends, I miss many things about life there at home. And I'm trying to find a home here in this beautiful country. And when you know it is safe for all citizens to have equal rights there in America, that's when we will consider coming back.
- [45:30]
Bill O'Reilly
So she refers to her daughter as Clay. Now I usually stay out of this stuff. It's none of my business how you raise your children, but she's 12 years old and this girl according to her mother is non binary, which means she doesn't identify with any gender. 12 years old and you're calling her Clay. But again, I could be wrong about this. I don't know the details, but it just gotta protect the kids. 12 years old is not old enough to make any binary decisions. Okay, here's the final thought of the day. I'm old school guy. I do reporting the way it used to be done. I do analysis based on facts. I hate cliches, I mock cliches. I turn on television news. It's cliche America. Here is the latest one. Go. We'll take this offer now to the.
- [46:30]
Mike Pompeo
Russians and we hope that they'll say yes, that they'll say yes to peace.
- [46:33]
Bill O'Reilly
They the ball is now in their court.
- [46:35]
Rosie O'Donnell
So Joe, right now it does sound like the ball is in Russia's court.
- [46:39]
Bill O'Reilly
Yeah. Rubio there saying that the ball is now in Russia's court.
- [46:42]
Mike Pompeo
Yeah.
- [46:43]
Bill O'Reilly
Victoria, the ball is in Russia's court.
- [46:44]
Mike Pompeo
Now when it comes to this ceasefire.
- [46:46]
Bill O'Reilly
Now the ball is in Russia's court to prove that it is also interested in peace or at least a ceasefire, I should say. I give you 100 more lemmings. Russia. They don't think they recite the worst is. We'll see. Yeah, we'll see. You're insulting me. I know. We'll see. Everybody knows that you don't have to say it 45,000 times. And then there is at the end of the day, if I'm trump, I'm signing executive order today says if you say at the end of the day you have to donate $10 to charity every time you say it. And if you don't, ice is going to come to your house at the end of the day. Painful to me, it's painful. It's like you know, the nail and this is a cliche, the nail is on the blackboard. So ball in a court. How many times can you just, just be original? Just try. I'm pleading with you. Thank you for very, very much for watching and listening to the no spin news where we try never to use cliches. We'll see you tomorrow.
- [48:11]
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