Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News – TPM Edition – March 13, 2026

Theme & Overview
This episode focuses on the escalating Iranian conflict and its broad repercussions—financial, political, and moral—for the United States and the world. Bill O’Reilly provides analysis on the military situation, oil and inflation spikes, U.S. policy, Democratic Party positioning, and the growing debate over the morality of “preventive” war, particularly from the Catholic Church’s perspective.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Impact of the Iran Conflict on the Global Economy

• Stock Market & Oil Price Surge
  • The stock market opened down 800 points and has lost over 2,000 points since February 28, coinciding with the start of the Iranian conflict.

    “If you have stocks, hold on, because they’ll come back. But painful oil is the worst.” – Bill O'Reilly [01:07]

  • Oil has risen from $72 to $104 a barrel, affecting costs across food, travel, and more—driving inflation globally.
  • Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian drone attacks has blocked the passage of millions of barrels of oil per day.

    “16 million barrels of oil a day has been held up worldwide. And that just means everybody is going to suffer.” [01:07]

2. Military Developments and Analysis of U.S. Leadership

• Iran's Diminishing Capabilities
  • Iran is reportedly running low on drones, though disruption continues.
• Interview with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
  • Hegseth, previously doubted by O’Reilly due to inexperience but acknowledged as smart, appeared on "60 Minutes." O’Reilly assesses his performance as competent but notes a “cocky” tone.

    “He did pretty well, I thought. And you want to be fair about it, he didn't make any major gaffes. Came across a little cocky.” [02:42]

• Hegseth's Stance
  • On the mission:

    "This is war. This is conflict. This is bringing your enemy to their knees. Now, whether they will have a ceremony in Tehran Square and surrender, that's up to them." – Pete Hegseth via O’Reilly [04:37]

  • On casualties:

    "There will be more casualties. ... That doesn't weaken us one bit. It stiffens our spine and our resolve to say, this is a fight we will finish." – Pete Hegseth [05:55]

• O’Reilly’s Position on Ground Troops
  • Strongly opposes deploying infantry to Iran, referencing risks from Iraq and Afghanistan.

    “I can't imagine President Trump putting infantry in there. And I'm not going to use the word boots on the ground, because that's a stupid cliche...” [06:14]

3. U.S. Political Response & Oil Reserves

• Partisan Tensions over Oil Reserves
  • Senate leader Schumer calls for opening the strategic oil reserves, echoing a thought O’Reilly admits to have had.

    “That should happen. So let's put the oil reserves into the marketplace to keep a lid on the rising costs of gasoline.” [08:07]

  • O’Reilly recounts reserve depletion during the Biden administration, partial replenishment by Trump.
• Moral Imperative & Strategy
  • O’Reilly frames the U.S. action as the “right thing” to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, even if difficult and politically costly.

    “But sometimes the right thing is the hardest thing to do right in your life.” [10:18]

  • Draws comparison to Vietnam and Korea regarding the variable success of righteous intervention.

4. Democratic Party & Congressional Dynamics

• Branding as Anti-War Party
  • Democrats, reminiscent of their Vietnam era positioning, cast themselves as staunchly anti-war, opposing Trump’s Iran policy.

    “Democrats have set themselves up as the anti war party.” [12:00]

• Senate and House Dissent
  • Notable Democratic senators threaten a legislative shutdown unless administration officials testify; many also condemned the June 2025 bombing of an Iranian nuclear facility.
  • Quote from Senator Chris Murphy, a key Democratic critic:

    “But anyone who is cheerleading the United States into a war with Iran has very quickly forgotten the disasters of the Iraq War and the Afghanistan war...” – Sen. Chris Murphy [16:17]

  • Ro Khanna (D-CA) advocates redirecting military funds to domestic needs:

    “It is a profoundly moral vote. It is a vote to direct our resources towards healing our own people, towards health care...” – Rep. Ro Khanna [17:07]

  • O’Reilly dismisses this as “political gibberish,” emphasizing that Iran’s leadership are “villains of the highest order.” [18:35]

5. Moral and Religious Debate: The Just War Doctrine

Catholic Church & Preventive War

• The Vatican, largest religious body in the U.S., advocates for dialogue and peace. O’Reilly acknowledges Pope Leo’s call for peace:

  “We lift our humble prayer to the Lord so that the thunderous sound of bombs may cease...” – Pope Leo, quoted by O’Reilly [24:28]

• Cardinal McElroy (Washington, D.C.) states:

  “The criterion of just cause is not met because our country was not responding to an existing or imminent and objectively verifiable attack by Iran. ... Catholic teaching does not support preventive war.” [25:28]

• O’Reilly challenges the Church’s stance, citing historical analogies—pre-Civil War U.S., Hitler pre-WWII.

  “So you're Telling me that preventative war is off the table. ... That doesn't make any sense. And I don't believe Jesus would support it.” [27:59]

Historical Parallels & Concluding Argument

• O’Reilly revisits historical failures of preventive action: Civil War, Nazi Germany, “Confronting Evil” theme.
  • Argues inaction leads to greater evil and higher death tolls.
• Points out Iran’s sponsorship of Hamas and Hezbollah, the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and Iran’s internal repression as evidence of regime evil.

  “How many more people got to die? ... That is the memo.” [29:29]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oil and Economic Pain:

  “Oil was $72 a barrel at the start of the Iranian conflict. It's now way above 100, about $104. Now, that's a problem because it just spirals into everything.” – Bill O’Reilly [01:07]

• On Political Ironies:

  “I had that exact thought, which frightens me, because I don’t want to be on the same wavelength as Schumer, who I don’t respect, but that should happen.” – Bill O’Reilly [08:07]

• On the Stakes of Inaction:

  “If you don’t stop evil, it gets worse and worse and worse and more and more people die.” – Bill O’Reilly [28:28]

• On Catholic Doctrine and History:

  “If Europe and America had united Against Hitler in 1938, 39, 20 million people wouldn’t have died.” – Bill O’Reilly [26:47]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Stock Market & Oil Crisis: [01:07–04:37]
• Sec. Hegseth Interview and Analysis: [04:37–09:52]
• Political Response & Oil Reserves: [09:52–12:00]
• Democratic Party & War Stance: [12:00–18:59]
• Just War Doctrine & Catholic Church Debate: [19:03–30:48]

Summary

Bill O’Reilly’s analysis pulls together economic, political, and moral threads of the current Iran crisis, criticizing both Democratic opposition and the Catholic hierarchy’s resistance to preventive war. Drawing historical parallels, he underscores the risk of inaction and makes a case for confronting Iran decisively, all while critically examining the consequences for both parties—especially the Democrats heading into the next election cycle.

Memorable closing argument:

“When you fail to stop the tyrants, things get worse. And that is the memo.” [18:35]