
No Spin News - May 10, 2025
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Bill O'Reilly
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Mark Penn
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Bill O'Reilly
Welcome to the no Spin News weekend edition.
Mark Penn
All right, latest Harvard Harris poll run by our pal Mark Pant. Fair poll. 2,286 registered voters. That's a big, big crew. Okay, favorability of Donald Trump as president. Approved. 48. Disapprove 46. Right or wrong track of the country. Right track 39. Wrong. 49. 10 point gap. Next question. Do you approve of the Republican Party or disapprove? Approve. 51. Disprove 49. Finally, approve or disapprove of the Democratic Party? Approve 42. Disapprove 58. Big gap. Joining us now, Miami, Florida is Mark Penn. He's the chairman and CEO of Stagwell, a global marketing firm. And you do oversee this poll, but this poll is different than most other polls. How come?
Unknown
Sorry, you went in and out of there.
Mark Penn
This poll, your poll, Harvard Harris is different than most of the other polling. Why?
Unknown
Well, look, we interview voters and you have to be careful. Well, there are two things. One, you have to differentiate between the polls that tend to interview all adults because all adults tend to be more negative about everything. And so they're more negative towards all politicians than voter polls. We're a voter poll. The second thing is I made sure to readjust my sample after the election to make sure that it represents that the Republicans now are a bigger party than the Democrats. That was the result of the election. That's what Gallup found. And I think a lot of the other polls just, you know, basically had Harris winning and then stuck with their exact sample. We had it very close, within two points. Either way, we, we made sure that our samples, we believe accurately represent the country. And it's not like Donald Trump's in the 70s or anything, but he, he certainly has continued to keep his constituency maybe a little bit more. He's got some very high approval ratings on some of the policies, you know, he is pursuing and some things that people are not as happy with.
Mark Penn
Okay. And I'm a kind of guy that puts the polls into perspective as far as data is concerned. And you run an honest poll. I've never had a problem with Harvard Harris poll. I don't have a problem with Gallup. All right. McLaughlin is always very accurate. And the guys in Brazil are good. Forget their names now, but they were the best on a presidential race. Do you believe that there are certain outfits that have their thumb cliche on the polling scale and want to deliver a bad poll number for Trump?
Unknown
Well, look, I, I think you've seen the entire media, you know, gang up pretty much on the president and his policies. You've seen it. I mean, look, imports are only 10% of the country, and a 10 tariff on 10% of the country is 1%. And, oh, my God, did you see dire predictions of complete economic collapse here? All right, tariffs may not be a positive move compared to tax cuts and may have some dislocations, but relatively speaking, you saw this vast exaggeration of their size and impact. And at the same time, it's the same thing, I think, that you see in some of these polls. They don't ask the questions, you know, that they don't want the answers to. We're very clear, you know, people support taking those people who are here illegally and committed crimes out of the country. There's no question about that. They may not be for renaming the Gulf of Mexico into Gulf of America, but when it comes to the core immigration policies that the president is pursuing, that's supported by like 70% of the country, if not more.
Mark Penn
Well, I think, and you correct me if I'm wrong, you know more about this than I do, but I've been around a while. When you are being paid to deliver data, you pretty much want to please your paymaster. It's a psychological thing. And if there are ways that you can do that, and you pointed one of them out by keeping an obsolete model, that the Democratic Party has a bigger presence than the Republican Party, when that's not true any longer, but nobody knows whether you're keeping that or not except you. And you want to get paid, you'll keep the obsolete model. That just makes sense, right? Let's face it, the US economy is under stress, national debt rising, trade war shaking the markets and meanwhile China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver through the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this. Get precious metals delivered to your door or place in a tax Advantage Gold IRA. They'll even help you roll over your existing IRA or 401 tax and penalty free with billions in precious metals delivered, thousands of five star reviews and an A plus from the Better Business Bureau. You can trust American Hartford Gold as I do. Please call 866-326-5576 or text BILL to 998-899. Again that's 866-326-5576 or text BILL to 9988.
Bill O'Reilly
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Unknown
Let me say that the Harvard Harris poll is done as a nonprofit purely because I felt that newspaper polls were no longer reflecting the kind of more accurate polling that I did at the White House when I worked with President Clinton. Because, I mean, I went back and I saw, well, sanctuary cities. Would you think it's popular that cities don't pick up people who are designated as and committed crimes and deport them? Well, I found out that no poll had asked that question since 1978. Right. So a lot of the polls don't carry the questions they don't want the answers to. Now, I'm not going to indict the whole profession. People run honest polls, you know.
Mark Penn
But your poll is a lot different than 80% of them. Let me ask you one more question. Forward looking, the media, as you pointed out, does have a tendency to try to panic the folks. You use the tariff example. The import example is very low. When the folks hear that and then they see a down day on the stock market or a down week, they do indeed panic. And that is reflected in the polling, correct?
Unknown
Yeah. I have actually found that the voters are less sensitive to the stock market. They're mostly sensitive to the prices that they pay and to the unemployment rate. And those things very much directly affect politics. Look, why isn't Trump, you know, in the 50s or 60s? Right. Because the most important issue right now is inflation, and people haven't experienced inflation coming down or prices down, even though gas and eggs are down somewhat. The president is off on a lot of other issues, particularly immigration, but also on tariffs on a number of these others. But the voters, I think, are really looking for a demonstration that the economy is going to be strong, that his economic policies are going to work and that they're going to, their wages are going to grow faster than prices.
Mark Penn
Well, that's what he's, that's what he's trying to do, but nobody knows whether that is going to work or not. Mark Penn, thank you very much. We always enjoy talking to you. And we'll speak again soon, I hope. Thank you.
Bill O'Reilly
You're listening to the no Spa News WEEKEND Edition.
Mark Penn
Now, there's a new tariff on movies. Okay, let me just set this up. In a general sense, the movie industry has collapsed in the United States. There are a bunch of reasons for it, but it is too expensive to make movies in California, in Los Angeles. So a lot of the movies now go to Canada. Vancouver, the big set there, Georgia, okay? They go there. That's where we shot killing Reagan. We shot killing Jesus in Morocco. Okay. Because it costs and it drives a cost. So Trump says, no, I'm going to put a tariff. If you, if you put, if you shoot a movie overseas, okay, here's the proclamation on truth. Social quote, movie industry is dying very fast. Death. Other countries are offering sorts of incentives to draw filmmakers and studios away from the United States. Hollywood and many other areas within the USA are being devastated. It's a concerted effort by other nations and therefore a national security threat. It is in the Department of Commerce. It is, I'm sorry, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda. Therefore, I'm authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% tariff on any and all movies coming into our country that were produced in foreign lands. We want movies made in America again, unquote. Now, I don't know how you do that because some movies are made partially overseas and partially here. But I'll give you a list of things that you obviously probably know. White Lotus, you know, that HBO show was pretty successful. Season one film, Hawaii, that's usa. Season two, Italy, Season three, Thailand and Lord of the Rings, New Zealand. You remember that beautiful scenery there. Braveheart, Mel Gibson, Scotland and Ireland, Remember the Sound of Music way back that was all in Austria, and Wicket was filmed primarily in the United Kingdom. So I don't know what you do here or how you enforce it, but here's something interesting. Governor Newsom of California is, is supporting this. All right. Because California has lost billions of dollars in movie revenue. Joining us now from Los Angeles is Randy Greenberg, who is a producer of films the Meg Meg 2. He also an instructor at UCLA on the business of entertainment. Can you figure this out? I mean, what are they going to do? Slap a tariff on what, the studio or the ticket prices? How's that going to work?
Randy Greenberg
Well, thanks, Bill. Thanks for having me on. And it's a pleasure to be here. That's a good question. I mean, you ask all the right questions. The reality is, where does this actually exist? Tariffs on goods that come into the country through ports of call is one thing, but this is digitally delivered. And so how do you do that? I think the idea of tariffs on the entertainment business is an interesting idea. I don't think it's workable in any way, shape or form. But I love that the administration's focusing on the entertainment business at the moment. Most of the previous administrations have not focused on it. So the idea of trying to do something to keep production in the United States is great.
Mark Penn
Yeah, look, I.
Randy Greenberg
Digital, it's great.
Mark Penn
I want the movie industry to thrive. I think that woke. Killed you and you know that. I, I just think back to the last James Bond movie. You know, I'm a big James Bond fan. I, I knew Sean Connery, he was a friend. And that last movie was so bad. I, I knew I was screaming in the theater and they ruined it because awoke. But anyway, I think the only way on this tariff deal, number one, I think it's symbolic. I don't think Trump's going to do it because it's far too complicated. But you could slap an extra tariff on a film and you'd have to charge more money for the ticket or if it goes straight to HBO or Netflix or anything like that, then you charge hbo, Netflix, who's ever distributing the film, a fee that. That goes to the U.S. treasury. That's the only way I can. I can see it happening.
Randy Greenberg
I agree with you. But ultimately the consumer is going to pay the price.
Mark Penn
Yeah, consumer's gonna get it right between.
Randy Greenberg
The eyes or the higher or higher subscription fees.
Unknown
Right.
Randy Greenberg
So the consumers like this is going to go right back to the consumer and which will, you know. And if it's a higher ticket price than theaters. Theaters already have an issue. Right Getting more people to come in. So, you know, you give people a pause like, yeah, ticket price is a little higher. You know, already If I wait 17 to 45 days, I can see it on streaming.
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Randy Greenberg
You know, I'm already paying for that platform already, so I'll just wait.
Mark Penn
No, there's no doubt about it, but it will hurt the studios too, because, you know, the fewer people that go to see the movie in the theaters, the fewer, the less revenue comes into the movie studio and creating a lot of chaos. Now, I think, and I could be wrong, there's also a measure because Jon Voight was involved with this. Do you know John?
Randy Greenberg
I don't know John.
Mark Penn
Okay? I know him pretty well and I always like spending time with John, but he's an arch conservative and he doesn't like the liberal Hollywood culture at all. And he talks to President Trump. I know that. And he. This might be a little payback here for Hollywood treating Trump so poorly in financing Kamala Harris campaign. Most of that money that went into her campaign came out of Hollywood. I just suspect there might be a little payback here. Randy, what do you think?
Randy Greenberg
You know, look, Bill, I try to stay out of politics. I'm a producer, I'm a storyteller. My interest is in telling a great story and giving audiences, you know, something to watch that entertains them, takes them away from current issues that they're dealing with. Or, you know, they get to dream of going somewhere that they've never been before. That's. As a kid growing up in Omaha, Nebraska, that's what I did. I went to the movie theater all the time, was one of the first AMC multiplexes, and I dreamed I saw productions of movies that were all over the. All over the world.
Mark Penn
Sure, most of us have had that experience. But I think because you live in Los Angeles and you're in the industry, and I don't expect you to say anything one way or the other, you got to do business out there. You know I'm right. You know, there's a little payback here and. But I don't expect this to come to fruition, but could be wrong. I have been before. I can't really remember when, Randy, but I know I have. And we really appreciate you coming on today. Thank you.
Bill O'Reilly
This is the no Spin News Weekend Edition.
Mark Penn
Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and other American economists are meeting with the Chinese in Geneva. Nice town. Geneva, Switzerland, Beautiful this weekend, May 9th through the 12th. And they're talking about averting a trade war which President Trump thinks will happen. They're going to avert it. Okay, maybe it will, maybe it won't. But it's my job to report to you what I learned. Joining us now from Washington, Victoria Coats, former deputy national security adviser to Donald Trump in his first term, now works for the Heritage foundation, vice President of National Security. Boy, that's an impressive resume you got there, Ms. Coates. Very good. So, look, I don't know what Xi and Putin want. Do you know what they want?
Victoria Coats
Well, good to be with you, Bill. And if you throw the PhD in Italian Renaissance art history on my resume, then you really have quite the confection going on. I think we see what's going on with Putin and Xi, really, over the last three years. Playing out in real time. And as I look back at this, this is one of the big geopolitical changes that President Trump confronts. Now, that is very different from what we had in 2017-2021, because this all came about after the fall of Afghanistan. I think both Xi and Putin realized they had real weakness in the White House and that they could explore what they call their partnership without limits. And that was instigated, I think, in Beijing and just weeks before the tanks rolled into Ukraine. No coincidence there. And they are trying to set up a poll that will be in competition with the United States and ultimately, in their minds, defeat the United States and our allies. So it's not a natural partnership. They have not historically liked each other, Russia and China particularly. Well, it's something we've been able to split apart in the past. But right now, they have a huge vested, both military and economic mutual interest that they have built over these years. And so I'm really concerned going forward that it's not just going to be them, but there are two other sort of junior partners, Iran and North Korea, creating a lot of trouble for the United States.
Mark Penn
All right, when you say defeat the United States, they're not going to defeat the United States militarily. If there is a war, then it will be mutual destruction. Everyone will die economically. Russia is a third world country when it comes to economics. They have no consumer power at all. China can't send its stuff into Russia. They don't make any money. They have to deal with the United States if they want to keep their economy afloat. So I don't understand why Xi and Putin, two tyrants, totalitarians, they want to defeat the United States.
Unknown
How?
Mark Penn
How would they do that?
Victoria Coats
Well, I think they saw a much straighter path towards that in the previous administration. And in terms of goods, with the way they're setting that up right now, Bill, is Russians have to. With the revenues that China gives them for natural resources, the Russians have to buy Chinese goods. So their imports of Chinese goods have gone to the historic level.
Mark Penn
Yeah, but it's all energy stuff. It's not stuff made. They're not buying the hats, the shirts, the sneaks. There's no disposable income. And plus, the Chinese don't want rubles, Victoria.
Victoria Coats
They want oil and gas. And so what they're doing is forcing the Russians to purchase their stuff for the oil and gas. It's almost like a barter arrangement. Now, I agree with you. We are currently dominant in a lot of areas. We are very concerned at the Heritage foundation, however, about the historic military buildup that's going on in China. It dwarfs a number of things that are going on historically in terms of military buildup. That's why the president's budget is so important, because he is talking about both reducing the waste and bloat and unnecessary activities in our DoD, but investing in the kind of things that China is. That didn't happen under President Biden and is now starting to happen under President Trump. And we look forward to working closely with Congress to to help him implement that. But that is necessary work because if we stay on the trajectory that we're on, I mean, China has a bigger navy than we do at this point.
Mark Penn
That's the fact. But again, yeah, I get that and I understand that, and I know the threat to Taiwan, and I'm going to China in three weeks, and I see what they're doing with the military.
Unknown
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Mark Penn
Again, with the weaponry that is in play now, it's not about the infantry or the Navy any longer. You can blow these ships right out of the ocean with the high tech weaponry that we have. So I guess it's an intimidation thing. Let me ask you one more question. Based on history, it used to be that Mao Zedong and the Soviet leaders wanted to take over the world and make everybody communist. Okay, well, Russia's not even communist anymore. It's more totalitarian fascist than communists. Although they don't respect private property. China hardcore communist. Is that still in play? Do they still want to make everybody communist?
Victoria Coats
Well, I want to talk to you when you get back from your trip. That sounds fascinating, but I think in this case you're seeing more of a marriage of convenience rather than a likeness between these Two countries.
Mark Penn
I think they see I agree with you. There's no cultural bond at all. And they cut each other's throats if they had to. But the end game is what I am still not. And when I go, I'm supposedly going to give an address to Xi's guys at the Beijing Club. Have you ever been to the Beijing Club? I didn't even know there was a Beijing club. Maybe I'll play a little racquetball before I give my speech.
Victoria Coats
Ping pong.
Mark Penn
But I'm going to try to find out. They're not going to tell me the truth. I understand that, but I'm not seeing. I understood what Hitler wanted. I understood what the Stalin wanted. Mao. I got it all. I knew what Ho Chi Minh wanted. I don't know what Xi wants. It seems that China could improve itself domestically. And I know he doesn't care about his own people. If they would just calm it all down and Putin into Ukraine. For what? For what? That does you no good at all. I'll give you the last word.
Victoria Coats
Well, I think it doesn't from our perspective. I think from Xi's perspective, it's a distraction for the United States, something that's not really in our vital national security interest, but into which we've poured a ton of money and material over the last three years. So I think he's fine with that. I think this is more of a death of a thousand cuts kind of thing for the United States and reducing our influence to expand theirs. That's, again, why this tariff situation.
Mark Penn
Yeah, but for economics, for power, for, you know, you know where I'm going with this. It's just not clearly defined. But we appreciate your point of view, and I will talk to you when I get back from China if I'm not in a gulag somewhere.
Victoria Coats
You know, we'll come get you out.
Mark Penn
Thank you. I appreciate that. Victoria, very nice. And thanks for talking to us today.
Bill O'Reilly
Thank you for listening to the no Spend News Weekend Edition. To watch the full episodes of the no spin news, visit billoriley.com and sign up to become a premium or concierge member. That's billoriley.com Sign up and start watching today.
Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis
Episode: No Spin News - Weekend Edition - May 10, 2025
Release Date: May 10, 2025
Bill O’Reilly kicks off the Weekend Edition of No Spin News, setting a no-nonsense tone for the discussions ahead. He briefly touches on the enduring American spirit of engineering excellence before transitioning to the main topics of the episode.
Timestamp: 01:07 - 09:56
Mark Penn introduces the latest Harvard Harris poll, which surveyed 2,286 registered voters to gauge their opinions on President Donald Trump, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party.
Trump’s Approval Ratings:
"Donald Trump's approval stands at 48%, with a 10-point gap in views on whether he's keeping the country on the right track." [02:08]
Party Approval Ratings:
"There's a significant gap in the approval of the Democratic Party, disapproving at 58% compared to 42% approval." [02:10]
Poll Methodology Insights:
Mark Penn discusses with the poll conductor the unique aspects of the Harvard Harris poll:
Voter vs. Adult Polling: Emphasizes the importance of surveying voters rather than all adults, as the latter group tends to be more negative.
"We're a voter poll. The second thing is I made sure to readjust my sample after the election to make sure that it represents that the Republicans now are a bigger party than the Democrats." [02:18]
Media Bias Concerns: They explore the possibility of media outlets influencing poll outcomes to disadvantage Trump.
"You've seen the entire media, you know, gang up pretty much on the president and his policies." [04:05]
Economic Policies and Public Perception:
The discussion delves into Trump’s economic policies, particularly tariffs and immigration, highlighting public support and media exaggeration.
Tariffs Impact:
"Imports are only 10% of the country, and a 10 tariff on 10% of the country is 1%." [04:05]
Immigration Policies:
"We're very clear, you know, people support taking those people who are here illegally and committed crimes out of the country. There's no question about that." [04:05]
Voter Priorities:
The poll indicates that voters are more concerned with tangible economic factors like prices and unemployment rather than stock market fluctuations.
"Voters are really looking for a demonstration that the economy is going to be strong, that his economic policies are going to work and that their wages are going to grow faster than prices." [09:04]
Timestamp: 10:14 - 19:05
Mark Penn shifts the discussion to President Trump’s proposal of a 100% tariff on foreign-produced movies to protect the American movie industry.
Trump’s Tariff Proposal:
Objective: To revive the struggling U.S. movie industry by discouraging foreign film production in the country.
"I'm authorizing the Department of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative to immediately begin the process of instituting a 100% tariff on any and all movies coming into our country that were produced in foreign lands." [12:00]
Challenges Highlighted:
Guest: Randy Greenberg
Randy Greenberg, a film producer and UCLA instructor, discusses the feasibility and potential repercussions of the proposed tariffs.
Operational Challenges:
"Tariffs on goods that come into the country through ports of call is one thing, but this is digitally delivered. And so how do you do that?" [13:09]
Economic Impact:
Consumers may bear the cost through higher ticket prices or increased subscription fees for streaming services.
"The consumers like this is going to go right back to the consumer and which will, you know." [15:03]
The overall effect could lead to reduced movie revenues and increased chaos within the industry.
Mark Penn’s Perspective:
Mark Penn speculates on the symbolic nature of the tariff and its underlying political motivations.
"I think there might be a little payback here for Hollywood treating Trump so poorly in financing Kamala Harris campaign." [17:22]
Conclusion:
Both hosts agree that while the tariff aims to protect the industry, its practical implementation is questionable and could inadvertently harm consumers and studios alike.
Timestamp: 19:05 - 27:35
Mark Penn introduces Victoria Coats, former Deputy National Security Adviser to Donald Trump and current Vice President of National Security at the Heritage Foundation, to discuss U.S. relations with China and Russia.
China and Russia Partnership:
Strategic Alliance:
"They are trying to set up a pull [poll] that will be in competition with the United States and ultimately, in their minds, defeat the United States and our allies." [20:06]
Economic Dependencies:
Russia's reliance on China for natural resources creates a barter-like relationship.
"With the revenues that China gives them for natural resources, the Russians have to buy Chinese goods." [22:07]
Military Buildup:
China’s Military Expansion:
"There's a huge vested, both military and economic mutual interest that they have built over these years." [22:40]
U.S. Defense Investment:
"The president's budget is so important, because he is talking about both reducing the waste and bloat and unnecessary activities in our DoD, but investing in the kind of things that China is." [23:34]
Threats to National Security:
Victoria Coats expresses concern over the rapid military expansion of China and the strategic moves by Russia, including the invasion of Ukraine.
"China has a bigger navy than we do at this point." [23:34]
Mark Penn’s Skepticism:
Mark Penn questions the ultimate goals of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, highlighting the impracticality of their ambitions given their economic limitations.
"Russia is a third world country when it comes to economics. They have no consumer power at all." [21:27]
Victoria Coats’ Insights:
She emphasizes that the partnership between China and Russia is one of convenience rather than ideological alignment, aimed at undermining U.S. influence.
"It's more of a death of a thousand cuts kind of thing for the United States and reducing our influence to expand theirs." [26:45]
Conclusion:
The conversation underscores the complexities of U.S. foreign policy in addressing the evolving alliances and military strategies of China and Russia, stressing the need for strategic investments and robust national security measures.
Bill O’Reilly wraps up the Weekend Edition by directing listeners to premium content available on his website, encouraging them to stay informed with No Spin News.
"Thank you for listening to the no Spin News Weekend Edition." [19:01]
Mark Penn on Tariffs:
"It's too expensive to make movies in California, so a lot of the movies now go to Canada. That's where we shoot many big productions." [12:00]
Victoria Coats on U.S. Security:
"China has a bigger navy than we do at this point." [23:34]
Poll Conductor on Immigration:
"People support taking those who are here illegally and committed crimes out of the country. There's no question about that." [04:05]
This episode of No Spin News - Weekend Edition delves into critical issues ranging from political polling and media influence to the intricate dynamics of the entertainment industry and international geopolitics. With insightful discussions and expert opinions, Bill O’Reilly and his guests provide listeners with a comprehensive analysis of the factors shaping the current political and economic landscape.