No Spin News - Weekend Edition - November 8, 2025

Summary

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Bill O’Reilly’s No Spin News and Analysis

Episode: No Spin News - Weekend Edition - November 8, 2025
Host: Bill O'Reilly
Date: November 8, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the aftermath of New York City's mayoral election and the expected implications of a potential Zoran Mamdani administration. Bill O'Reilly discusses public safety, police morale, crime, socio-political demographics, and national political strategy with former NYPD Chief John Chell, columnist Miranda Devine, and political analyst Doug Schoen. The conversation is candid, skeptical about the city’s direction, and extends into broader themes of political messaging and public perception across the nation.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Mayoral Election: Zoran Mamdani’s Rise (00:40)

• O'Reilly introduces the imminent victory of Zoran Mamdani as NYC's next mayor, referencing polling data and suggesting uncertainty and concern among many city residents.
• Notable Polling: Mandani 41%, Cuomo 34%, “Slew” 24% (01:15)

2. Implications for Public Safety: Conversation with John Chell (Former NYPD Chief) (02:41—09:38)

• Policing Under Mamdani

  • Chell outlines how a shift from law enforcement to social network-centered public safety under Mamdani would have potentially disastrous consequences.
  • Staffing Concerns: NYPD is already short roughly 1,000 officers; up to 3,800 more can leave soon (03:14–03:30)
  • Funding: Mandani plans to fund $1.8 billion in “community action teams” from the police budget (03:45)

• 911 and Morale

  • O'Reilly predicts slower emergency response times and diminished morale due to anti-police civilian review boards.
  • Chell warns of a potential “mass exodus” if the civilian complaint review board becomes the ultimate disciplinary authority. (04:51—05:30)
  • "No cop is going to stay to let some 20 year old kid... adjudicate laws against a police department..." — John Chell (04:59)

• Crime, Bail Reform, and Prosecutions

  • Assaults on police up 40% since bail reform; felony conviction rate for attacking an officer is just 6% (06:01)
  • There's a 30% rise in overall crime post-bail reform (06:14)—reform blamed on state legislature, with weak prosecution by some DAs.
  • Frustration with repeat adjournments and low accountability for dangerous offenders (Attack on two NYPD officers adjourned 20 times, attackers released) (06:48—07:57)
  • "It's a recipe for disaster... response times are going to go higher... the collective effect is going to really hurt the city." — John Chell (09:10)

3. Erosion of Urban Stability: Sociopolitical Analysis with Miranda Devine (14:46—22:04)

• Perspective on Survival in NYC

  • Devine compares living through de Blasio to "the Night of the Living Dead"—crime, homelessness, and city services suffered (14:46–16:03).
  • She doubts current NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch will remain under Mamdani.

• Forecasts for City Services and Crime

  • Both O’Reilly and Devine anticipate a sharp increase in street crime, slower 911 response, and more reactivity than proactivity among police (16:42–18:25).
  • O’Reilly predicts further deterioration of city services, waste collection, and overall efficiency, impacting the poorest residents worst (16:42–18:25).
  • "The people who are voting for Mandani are going to get it the worst." — Bill O’Reilly (18:17)

• Electoral Demographics and Why Mamdani Won

  • Devine: Mandani has locked down the Muslim vote via targeted appeals, especially identity politics, associating with radical figures. (19:03)
  • She suggests the youth vote is driven by anger, a lack of historical education, and a sense of betrayal by the establishment, making them susceptible to ambitious promises. (19:03–21:03)
  • The “rich liberal elite” vote for Mandani as a stance against Trump.
  • O'Reilly: "Do you believe that the people voting for Mandani are stupid?" (18:50); Devine: "In a way I can forgive them... they have been brainwashed." (19:03)

• Anti-Trump Sentiment

  • Devine confirms a significant anti-Trump factor, particularly among liberal boomers and wealthy elites, influencing voting patterns even at the municipal level. (21:03–22:04)

4. Exit Polls and Demographic Breakdown (22:48)

• O’Reilly gives a summary of the election’s demographic turnout:

  • By Race: Mandani carried every group: White (46%), Black (55%), Latino (49%), Asian (61%).
  • By Religion: Protestant (42%), Catholic (33%), Jewish (33%), Atheist (75%).
  • By Age: 18–29 (78%), 30–44 (66%), 45–64 (43%), 65+ (36%) (22:48)
  • O’Reilly laments “communism is atheism” and expresses confusion over significant Jewish support for a candidate he characterizes as antisemitic.

• Predictions for NYC’s Future

  • Widespread emigration, halted real estate and construction, rising crime, falling tax receipts—all “inevitable” under Mamdani.
  • “I do know many people are going to move out because I know them. And real estate projects will stop. That means jobs will decline, tax receipts will decline... Violent crime will rise.” — Bill O’Reilly (24:20)

5. National Political Messaging: Discussion with Doug Schoen (Political Analyst) (25:54—34:49)

• Political Strategy: Trump & Republicans

  • Trump’s focus on issues like immigration overshadows core voter concerns: inflation and cost of living (25:54—27:16)
    • “It is that simple. With all the emphasis on immigration, he’s actually succeeded in stopping illegal immigration. He has not succeeded in bringing down inflation far enough or prices enough." — Doug Schoen (25:57)
  • Democrats succeeded in making the economic malaise “Trump’s fault” through anti-Trump messaging, even without a clear Democratic alternative.

• Need for Clear Communication

  • O'Reilly and Schoen criticize Trump’s lack of precise messaging about economic policy and consequences, especially tariffs (27:16—31:37)
    • "We know what he's doing, we don't know why he's doing it." — Bill O'Reilly (27:23)
  • Voters want to know “what’s in it for me?”—not seeing benefits from tariffs, ICE raids, etc.

• Electoral Prospects and Trump’s Legacy

  • If Republicans lose in the 2026 midterms, Trump's legacy and effectiveness are over, as further actions will be tied up in courts.
  • Further investigations/distractive issues (ballroom scandals, etc.) will not matter unless economic messaging improves. (32:56—33:46)
  • “If they do listen and they are able to perform and communicate, it will be a very different outcome than the first midterm.” — Doug Schoen (34:35)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Police Morale:
  “No cop is going to stay to let some 20 year old kid... adjudicate laws against a police department... that will be a backbreaker.” — John Chell (04:59)

• On Political Messaging:
  "We know what he's doing, we don't know why he's doing it." — Bill O'Reilly (27:23)

• On Demographic Trends:
  “33% of New York Jews voted for Mandani. He doesn’t like Jews at all. What’s the matter with you people?” — Bill O’Reilly (23:30)

• On Crime and Prosecution:
  "Assaults on police are up about 40% since bail reform... conviction rate for a felony conviction for attacking a police officer is at an abysmal 6%." — John Chell (06:01)

• On Socioeconomic Discontent:
  “Voters want to know that politicians are on their side. They believe Trump is forceful and zealous. They just do not get the logic and the outcomes that he is seeking.” — Doug Schoen (31:11)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:40 — Introduction to Mayoral Election & City Concerns
• 02:41—09:38 — Policing, Crime, and Public Safety with John Chell
• 14:46—22:04 — Urban Decay, Electorate Demographics, and Mandani's Appeal (Miranda Devine)
• 22:48—25:54 — Post-Election Analysis: Demographics & City Forecast
• 25:54—34:49 — National Political Messaging and Trump’s Strategy (Doug Schoen)

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Tone and Language

The episode is marked by O’Reilly’s trademark skepticism, directness, and populist perspective. Guests, especially Chell and Devine, match his critical tone, offering empirical data, anecdotal evidence, and sharp social commentary. Throughout, there’s an undercurrent of frustration—at policymakers, voters, and systemic developments both in city management and in national politics. The language is plainspoken, blunt, and occasionally provocative.

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Summary

Bill O'Reilly and his expert guests express deep concerns about the direction of New York City under Zoran Mamdani’s likely administration, focusing on anticipated degradation of public safety, city services, and quality of life. They explore the voter coalitions that propelled Mandani, dissect the failures and messaging flaws of national Republican leadership, and forecast political volatility ahead. The episode delivers a bracing, critical narrative interwoven with stark statistical analysis and candid opinion—a snapshot of skepticism toward both urban progressivism and national political messaging.

Transcript

[A]

Firestone Complete Auto Care's epic savings event is the sign you need to stop putting off your car's maintenance. And you can save up to $100 on tires and services. While you're at it, don't wait. Call Firestone Complete Autocare for an appointment. Hey, friends, this is Audie Cornish, host of CNN this Morning and the assignment. And guess what? Every story you care about, every angle you want unpacked is now streaming on cnn. That means you can catch my show or other CNN programming whenever you favorite device. And a subscription also gets you access to exclusive video series and unlimited articles. So subscribe to [e-mail] Subscription welcome to the no Spin News Weekend Edition New York City. I live eight miles outside the city, so I'm not affected directly by Ma' Am Donnie. Fact, he did me a favor. My Property is up 20% in estimated value since Zoran announced he wanted to be mayor. 20% people getting out. Latest poll, Atlas good poll. Nailed the Obama, I'm sorry, the Trump Kamala Harris race. Exactly. Atlas is out of Brazil. Here's what they say. Zora Mandani 41%. Andrew Cuomo 34 slew with 24 vote of course is tomorrow. And it's going to be the highest turnout in quite some time. Everybody's jazzed now. Services and public safety are the two big things that if Ma' Am Donnie is elected are going to be right. Forefront. Services being going to pick up your garbage. They're going to clean up the city. Traffic congestion, pollution, I think it's all going to get worse. Public safety, no doubt it's going to get worse because Mamdani is soft on crime, doesn't want to punish the criminals. Joining us now is John Chelf. This is a great booking we got here. Mr. Chell just retired a few weeks ago as chief of department for New York City Police Department, he was the highest ranking uniformed officer in the department for the last couple of years. He joins us from Staten Island. That's a pretty good lead in for you, Chief. Right.

[B]

Thank you, sir.

[C]

Sound pretty good.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

Are you moving out of here if Mandami wins?

[C]

Nah, I'll be staying right here. Just trying to do my part and support the city the best I can. But like you said, if he wins, the whole paradigm of public safety is going to shift to a social network versus a law enforcement network. And you know, in some places I works a little bit in policing, but it really has the potential to hurt this whole city as it relates to public safety.

[A]

Give me some Specifics on what you see happening.

[C]

Well, first look at his rhetoric. He's no fan of the police department. By his own words, when you hear his rhetoric about he wants to maintain staffing levels, well, what does that mean? We're already down thousand cops and about 3,800 change can leave in January. So he doesn't want to hire more cops and we need more cops. Look at his rhetoric as it relates to crime. He's kind of nuanced. Well, I didn't say I don't want prostitution but I want to decriminalize it. I didn't say I don't want to enforce misdemeanors, which those are perception laws. Right. But I don't want cops focused on low level offenses. So he's sending signals out here that he wants more of a social network. And to pay for that, what about 1.8 billion interest community action teams that's going to come from the police department budget. That's really going to hurt because Bill, you know this city's 24, 7, 365 every minute something happens here. We just came through.

[A]

Yeah, I do, I do know that and I know a lot about policing as you know. And what I see is that 911 calls will be delayed because there just physically aren't going to be enough cops on the shifts to answer them as quickly as they need to be answered. The morale in a police department, setting up civilian review boards to Monday morning quarterback everything the cops do in the street. And these review boards, they don't like the police, they're anti police. So before you left, Madame was obviously in play. Generally speaking. How did the police see this?

[C]

Well, you just hit it. Morale is hurting. It's hurting because we're understaffed and we're working too hard. And let me. And here's something you probably don't know, Bill. The cops want a great contract and they don't have one. But their biggest complaint of all to all the unions and I dealt with them every day was the civilian complaint reward. If he gets his way, which is a ballot issue for next year to have Sicilian complaint reward be the final arbiter of complaints against cops. You will see a mass exodus. No cop is going to stay to let some 20 year old kid who's not an investigator pretending to be an investigator who's going to adjudicate laws against a police department that will be a backbreaker.

[A]

Well, it puts the cops in danger because they can be sued civilly. I mean you can break them by filing A lawsuit on assault or whatever. But what we have been following is the assaults on police, physical assaults, people punching them, kicking them, all of that. And those crimes have risen dramatically, or am I wrong?

[C]

They're up about 40%, 4 0% since bail reform. And the conviction rate for a felony conviction for attacking a police officer is at an abysmal 6%.

[A]

Wow.

[C]

This is why recidivism, as much as we brought crime down, because we have a 30% rise in crime since bail reform. So we're fighting this new platform of crime by about 126, 127,000 crimes a year. And we're getting it down 1, 2, 3, 4% because we suffer from recidivism. We suffer from lack of prosecution. Now the ada, they inherited bail reform from our state legislative. But another actor here was not doing their job with the judges. They're confusing their ideology with the law. The whole system is messed up here.

[A]

Bill, is the DA's too bragging and particularly bragging Manhattan. And Darzal Clark in Bronx. You know the case of the two NYPD's who were attacked on a subway platform in the Bronx on videotape. Both of them had to go to the hospital. There were three attackers. Two were arrested and charged. That case has been adjourned 20 times. 2, 0. That's. They don't want to prosecute. Darcelle Clark in the Bronx doesn't want to prosecute. These thugs. They're out. They've been out. They haven't spent. I don't think they spent even an overnight in jail.

[C]

I'll tell you something else, Bill. Okay. First of all, think about, think about what happened. You're smoking a cigarette, police officer asks you to distinguish the cigarette or leave and their response is a full frontal attack.

[A]

Yeah.

[C]

You get arrested for assault to a police officer. You go in front of a judge and the judge lets them out. Now five months later, Mr. McCleary gets locked up for an illegal gun.

[A]

And that's one of the guys charged?

[C]

Yes. Yep, he's one of the two. That charge was all too. He gets locked up for a gun and he's still out. He's a two time walking indictment.

[A]

Right?

[C]

Walking around our streets.

[A]

This is broken, sure, but that's Albany and that's the legislature. It's not Mandami. But Mandami sympathizes with that. But what annoyed me on this case, other than the obvious travesty of adjournment 20 times, is that the police unions didn't stand up. All right? They Didn't. They should be out there with signs in front of Clark's office. They should be screaming and yelling. Nobody knows about the case. And these poor officers, if you and everybody and the cops know, they know they're not going to get a lot of support if they even get shot. And that's the final word. You got a guy who's soft on crime, and Donnie, there's no question he's soft on crime. You got a budget cutter who's going to take money away from the police. You got 911, where the innocent people in New York who are set upon by dangerous criminals, that's their last line of defense. And that's going to collapse. I predict right now. Last word.

[C]

It's a recipe for disaster response. Times are going to go higher. Calls for service are up 20%. And then if you're going to hamstring the cops, they are not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive. They're not going to take chances. And the collective effect is going to really hurt the city.

[B]

We're going to.

[C]

We already came back from bail reform from 2022 because we were stuck in Covid. I don't know if we can come back a second time.

[A]

I don't know. Mandani in four years is going to do so much damage, not only to the police, but to the social fabric of the city, it almost will be unrecognizable. Hey, Chief, we really appreciate it. Enjoy your retirement and we'll talk again soon, I hope. Let's face it, the US Economy is under stress. National debt rising, trade war shaking the markets. And meanwhile, China is dumping the dollar and stockpiling gold. That's why I protected my savings with physical gold and silver. Theroux, the only dealer I trust, American Hartford Gold. And you can do this. Get precious metals delivered to your door or place in a tax advantage. Gold, Iraq. They'll even help you roll over your existing IRA or 401k tax and penalty free with billions in precious metals delivered. Thousands of 5 star reviews and an A from the Better Business Bureau. You can trust American Hartford Gold as I do. Please call 866-326-5576 or text Bill to 998-899. Again, that's 866-326-5576, or text Bill to 998-899. Have you heard about Gold Belly? It's an amazing site that celebrates the best of America by shipping our country's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants straight to your door. Anywhere in the usa. I just had the main lobster roll and the deep dish pizza felt like a celebration. It was good. Now, this Thanksgiving, I am going to do a little pecan pie, I think, and a holiday roast. Everybody's going to be able to enjoy both of those things. Gold Belly's reliable shipping makes sharing these memorable moments easy, joyful. So if you are looking for the perfect holiday gift or want to impress your friends and family with an epic Thanksgiving, please go to goldbelly.com get 20% off your first order with promo code bill. That's goldbilly.com code bill. 20% off your first order. Great deal. You're listening to the no Spin News Weekend edition in New York City. Mandami will probably win, but he's a communist. So how do I know that? Because you know all alone, no, he's not a communist. He is a communist. Now, I was going to run a soundbite, but I'm not going to run it. I'm going to quote it. Okay, so this is Mandani in 2021 at the Young Democratic Socialists of America conference. Here's what he said. He said right now there's a quote. If we're talking about issues that have groundswell of popular support across the country, there are issues that we firmly believe in, whether it's bds, okay. BDS is boycott, divestment and sanctions against Israel. Okay. Or whether it's the end goal of seizing the means of production, unquote. Seizing the means of production. That is a communist tenet. Seizing by force. Because regular folks like me are not going to give you my house. So you have to take it. And guys with guns would have to come. That's communism. That's what happened in China with Mao Zedong, in Russia with Stalin, in Cuba with Castro. If you read Confronting Evil, it's a big part of the book. How these communist totalitarians murdered millions, tens of millions of people to seize the means of production. This is what this guy Mandani is quoting. Yet he may be the next mayor of New York City. Fighting. Yes, it is. Joining us now from the city, Miranda Devine, columnist from the New York Post. The post has been 100% against Mamdani from the very beginning. Ms. Devine has a very popular podcast, Pod Force One. She interviewed a lot of the Trump administration, including the president himself. All right, so look, it's all established that you and your newspaper and you hate Mamdani, you don't want him, he's destructive and all of that. There's an old adage that says you hope for the best, but you plan for the worst. You live in New York City. Miranda, have you made any plans or adjustments of what you might do in your life should Mamdani become the mayor?

[D]

Not really. I mean, we've lived through de Blasio, when the city visibly went downhill very quickly. And then, of course, the pandemic when it became like the Night of the Living Dead, with a whole lot of zombie drug affected, mentally ill people wandering the streets and a whole lot of inmates released from Rikers Island. And then, of course, we had a whole bunch of illegal migrants placed in hotels all around Midtown. So it's been, you know, pretty willing for the last, well, almost since I arrived here back in early 2019. So I, I, I think that we're expecting if Mamdani wins, that things will go south slowly. I mean, already the NYPD is a shadow of its former self. You can just tell from the fact that there are so many women, so many small police officers who just stand around reading their phones. Now, Jessica Tisch, who's the very good NYPD commissioner, after a series of upheavals, Mamdani was forced into saying that he would probably keep her on, which is.

[A]

One, she's not going, she's not going to stay.

[D]

Well, he knows that she's going to be his foe in the next election, so I don't think he's going to want to keep her on anyway. So I'm sure he'll make life miserable for her. And, and, and, you know, that's the last piece of good news that we have about keeping the NYPD PD together. And I must say, under Eric Adams, things started to look up on the crime front. But, you know, Mamjani is on record. He's pretending now and that, that he didn't really mean it or he's changed his mind. And.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, we know that he doesn't want to prosecute criminals because he believes society is at fault, not them. But you say you haven't made any plans or thought about. So I tell my family members who live in New York City, and I said, look, if this guy comes in, within six months, you're going to have a frightening rise of street crime, because the people committing the street crime aren't even going to be arrested. I wouldn't be surprised if the 911 system collapses because there's not enough police now. And the police that are going to stay, many of them will leave, are going to be reactive. They're not going to be aggressive. They're not going to be running out there as fast as they can run out there. Because he's going to have civilian view boards that are anti police. And if a cop makes a mistake, all right, defends himself or herself, he's right in front of the board. And you can sue the cops if you're a thug or anybody. Who's going to do that? No one. So I'm telling my family members, look, you're going to go out at night, you're going to have to go out three or four. You can't go out by yourself. That's number one. That's going to happen. Number two is garbage isn't going to be picked up. Union people are just going to go, ah, you know, every bit of efficiency and the city is not efficient. Okay, is going to go down because this 34 year old, he doesn't have the organizational capacity to keep it up. It's the largest city in the country, 8.5 million people. All right? And you know it's going to get it worse. The poor, the people who are voting for Mandani are going to get it the worst.

[D]

They're not actually voting for him, they're voting for Cuomo.

[A]

Well, you're going to see they brought.

[D]

Women and young people who are voting for Mamdani.

[A]

You're going to see immigrants, people born overseas. Now 50% of the new York City electorate vote for Mandani. You'll see any exit polling, okay, they're.

[D]

Going to get 1 million Muslims will. Yes, because he's gone out by that.

[A]

Vote as a New York Post columnist. And your beat is the city. Do you believe that the people voting for Mamdani are stupid?

[B]

No.

[D]

I'll tell you the way I see it. First of all, he's got the Muslim vote locked up because he's appealed to them specifically on identity grounds. He's gone to, you know, mosques and cuddled up with this radical imam who was, gave character testimony to the blind sheikh who was the mastermind of the first World Trade center bombing. He's made, no, he's not even bothered hiding his affinity with radical Islam. So that's number one. And then you've got young people and I mean, in a way I can forgive them for their stupidity because, you know, they haven't been taught any history. They haven't read your books, they haven't. They've gone to university and been brainwashed. Brainwashed. And not only that, as Democrat voters, they have been betrayed. And I don't really blame them for being angry. They look at Washington, D.C. they were lied to about Joe Biden. They see a gerontocracy has taken over their party establishment. And so it's just natural for them to feel they've been priced out. They have this Pied Piper. Mamdani comes along and says to them, you know, sort of taps into their grievance about the party and says, follow me and I will make your life affordable. And he makes these airy promises. There's no way he can fulfill any of them. But they're angry with the establishment, so they're going to go with a generational part. And then you've got just the crazy rich liberal elite, including a lot of Jews, which as someone said, is like chickens voting for kfc. But they, you know, are going to vote. The polls show. We've seen interviews with them. I've talked to them. They love Mamdani, and they see him as sort of the antidote to Donald Trump and a reinvigoration of the Democratic Party in the way of the future.

[A]

Do you see? And that's a very good analysis you just gave the rest of the nation that doesn't live here. Do you see an anti Trump vote in the New York mayoral situation?

[D]

Yes, certainly in that liberal boomer demographic, the wealthy elites. You know, Trump derangement is very strong here in New York, and there's a big cohort of conservative voters. And Donald Trump increased his vote last election. And I mean, every county has turned a little red and to the point where Elise Stefanik, who seems to be running for governor, she may have a chance where Lee Zeldin did not. But still the majority, I mean, Manhattan or New York City is something like 70% plus. 70% plus Democrat voters. And I would say, you know, more than half of those are Trump deranged.

[A]

Yeah. And the younger ones, of course. All right, Miranda, thank you very much. Nice segment. We appreciate you taking the time. I hope we can talk again soon. Here for the Lowe's early Black Friday deals, You're right on time for some of our biggest savings. We're talking up to 50% off select major appliances, plus up to an extra 25% off when you bundle. Select major appliances. Holiday lights going up soon. Select ladders are up to 50% off right now. Get Black Friday prices without the Black Friday crowds. Lowe's, we help you Save. Valid through 1119. Selection varies by location. Select locations only while supplies last. Seelows.com for more details. What do you think makes the perfect snack hmm. It's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.

[D]

Could you be more specific?

[A]

When it's cray venient. Okay. Like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at am, pm. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at am, pm. I'm sorry, in a pattern here. Well, yeah, we're talking about what I crave, which is anything from am, pm. What more could you want? Stop by AMPM where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. Am, pm Too much good stuff. This is the no Spin news weekend edition. So exit polling. Here's who voted for Mandani by race, 46% of white New Yorkers, 55% of black, 49% Latino, 61% of Asian. Now Asian is South Asian and you look at the Cuomo. So Mamdani beat him in every category. White, black, Latino and Asian. Asian number was huge. A lot of Asians in New York City and they vote religion. Protestant. 42% voted for Mamdani. Catholic 33 Jewish. 33% of New York Jews voted for Mamdani. He doesn't like Jews at all. What's the matter with you people? I don't know. I don't know what's the matter with people. And if you're an atheist, 75% because communism is atheism. Okay, there you go. Age 18 to 29, 78% Mandani. Then it goes down 30 to 44. 66%. 45. 64. 43. Over 65, 36. The wisdom of age. So we have a situation where I don't know how quickly New York is going to deteriorate. I do know many people are going to move out because I know them. And real estate projects will stop. That means jobs will decline, tax receipts to the city will decline. All of that is inevitable. Violent crime will rise. And I don't see anything good on the horizon. I guess he'll get the free bus rides, I don't know. But then you'll have the homeless people sleeping on the buses 24 7. And that's the memo and that's the stats and that's the best analysis unit here. If it isn't bill@billow reilly.com Let me have it. Let me have it. Joining us now for New York City, Doug Schoen, who now Floridian Shone, left us here in New York defend for ourselves, but he's our go to guy on political strategies, the author of the book the Politics of Life. You might want to check that out. Am I making any mistakes in my analysis? Anything you quibble with?

[B]

You know, Bill, I was listening, hoping that I'd have some disagreement, but you're fundamentally right, and I say this not to be a flatterer, but to just recognize the obvious. Trump has emphasized issues other than inflation and the economy and prices to his detriment. You're exactly right. It is that simple. With all the emphasis on immigration, he's actually succeeded in stopping illegal immigration. He has not succeeded in bringing down inflation far enough or prices enough. That's number one. Number two, you're right about the shutdown. The incumbent party gets blamed. Trump was blamed, in my assessment of New Jersey is they were more concerned with Trump and the shutdown and affordability than they were with local issues. That means the Democratic campaign succeeded by being anti Trump and pinning the economic malaise of the country on him and the Republicans. There is no Democratic agenda, there is no Democratic alternative, and Mondami is a huge risk to the Democratic Party. So I agree with your assessment about where we stand. But Trump and the White House have to take this as a wake up call. If they don't, they will be in serious trouble.

[A]

You know, the inflation number is not bad. It's the high prices for the essentials of life that's driving people's disenchantment and anger. So, for example, gasoline prices where I live are down. They're below $3 a gallon now. But utilities are killing you. And you go to the grocery store and the restaurants. It's insane now. It's insane. All right. And people here tariff this. They don't know what the tariff is. We explained it last night. But tariffs are not real to people. And people vote on what's real, what they can see and feel. Now, one of the criticisms I've had of the Trump administration is their messaging is not precise enough. We know what he's doing, we don't know why he's doing it. And they don't back up a lot of stuff. For example, the ICE raids. After every controversial raid, there should be an explanation. Here's what we did. This is why we did it. Here's who got thrown to the ground. We made a mistake or we didn't make a mistake, but none of that seems to be coming for. So it's easy. It's easy for people on the fence about Trump, not the MAGA people or the Trump haters, but then the people in the middle to take a negative view if you don't get precise messaging, that's where I think the big weakness is.

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[B]

You know, again, Bill, at the risk of having to agree with you, what political communication is about is outcomes. That is what's in it for me. How are we going to benefit from these raids? But most important, how are we going to benefit at the grocery store, the gas station, at the, you know, bill paying each month for utilities? Why are the tariffs and the other economic policies going to benefit consumers? We don't have an answer to that.

[A]

Well, yeah, it's too early though for the tariffs and then you get the Supreme Court.

[B]

Now what you're trying to do is.

[A]

You correct, they got to explain how that those tariffs and he, he has to some extent, but it's all him, it's 100% Trump and he is available and he is accessible and he does go out and do the gaggle with the press and all that, but he doesn't have the follow up needed in the department area, Homeland Security, area, agriculture, whatever. Look, Trump can't control wages and prices. The executive branch can't do that. You can do that in socialism, in communism, but you can't do it in capitalism. So he's got to have a plan and say, this is how I'm going to bring down a price of meat. But I haven't heard a plan of you.

[B]

Nor have I. And again, politicians want to know. I'm sorry, Voters want to know that politicians are on their side. They believe Trump is forceful and zealous. They just do not get the logic and the outcomes that he is seeking. You're right, tariffs are complicated, but what is going to be the end result in his terms and in the administration's terms. We don't know.

[A]

Well, we haven't seen. The end result is more jobs in the manufacturing sector that pay higher wages. And if you're a sophisticated person, you understand that's what could happen. Could. But it hasn't happened yet because it's only been 10 months. Now. The final area is Trump's legacy. This is everything to him. Everything. If he loses the midterms, the Republicans lose one or both houses, he's shot. You can't do executive order after executive order after executive order. Every single one of them will be thrown into the courts. We don't know how the courts are going to rule on tariffs. I do believe they're going to give the president some wide discretion on the tariffs, but not everything he wants. They'll pull him back a little bit. We went over that yesterday with the law of 1974, which explicitly says president can balance the flow of money out of here. He has the authority to do this. A national security issue, but it hasn't been portrayed as a national security issue, but it is. This is what I mean. But if Trump gets waxed and the Republicans lose in 26, pretty much all over for him, right?

[B]

Oh, absolutely. And the other thing you didn't mention, Bill, knowing the Democrats and their absence of a message, there will be more investigations of Trump, the Trump family and the Trump administration.

[A]

I don't think that's going to. I don't think that'll be a factor. Americans are numb to that. They know the game.

[B]

I think up Bill to just finish my point. It'll tie things up and distract from what the people really care about, which is, what are you going to do, Mr. President, to make my life better?

[A]

You know, like, the ballroom thing is not a big issue for me. Privately funded. He wants a big ballroom. He wants to have the best facility in the world for the federal government. I don't object to that, but it's a diversion, as you're saying.

[B]

That's what I'm saying.

[A]

Right. And people, people go, what do we need is big ballroom. When I'm playing this much money for bacon and I'm buying cereal and half the box isn't there, that's the biggest con in the world. Whereas you buy the food and that's there's a fourth less food in the box or the can, and they've been doing that, and nobody addresses that.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

So, anyway, I can't handicap the midterms at this point because I said too much change in the air. Can you handicap it?

[B]

I can tell you now that the Democrats have a slight, a very slight advantage. In 2018, they were plus 10. At this point, they're plus 2. Which means exactly what you said in your talking points. Bill is right. This is up for grabs. But unless Trump and the Republicans take the clear message of yesterday to heart, it will go in the wrong direction. If they do listen and they are able to perform and communicate, it will be a very different outcome than the first midterm election.

[A]

All right, Doug, always appreciate it. Thanks very much. My pleasure.

[B]

Always.

[A]

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