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The bitcoin price took another huge dump recently, and now over 10.5 million coins are underwater. So the question is, is the bear market going to get worse, or is there some semblance that maybe bitcoin is finding a bottom? So 10.5 million bitcoin are underwater. This is more than half of the supply of bitcoin. I said recently, actually on a Swan Signal podcast. I thought we had at least one more leg down in this market when a lot of people were starting to get pretty hopeful, mostly because this is just what bitcoin does. Bitcoin likes to do its own thing. Whatever, whatever. I do what I want. And this is kind of how bitcoin has always been. So about this time last year in 2025, in June and July, we were hitting in the 120, $125,000. And I think most really thought that we were about to blow off the top. There was an enormous amount of excitement because this was also the first market that it ever had ETFs and a clear opening into the traditional financial markets and that liquidity. Then, of course, it turned around a lot sooner than I think people expected. We've gone into a short bear market, maybe a long bear market, who knows? But one of the interesting things about where we are right now is that we're actually seeing a bottom signal in the market that has occurred at every single bear market all the way back to 2011. And that's the capitulation signal for the amount of bitcoin on chain that is underwater. More than half the coins, 10.5 million coins, as well as the weekly strength index is actually showing the exact same thing. It's showing that we're running out of momentum. To the downside, when we saw this back in 2022, it was at 15 or $16,000. And a lot of people like to focus on the fact that the high was only twice what the previous high was and fail to recognize that the low, if this signal continues to prove its case, is. Is four times higher than the previous low. So for the people who are new here, my first bear market was utter devastation. It was nothing but pure bloody hell. Hello, darkness, my old friend. I've come to talk with you again. It was A More than 90% dropped in the market. This bear market has actually been extremely muted, which I think is a strong signal and an indication of how deep the liquidity has become in the market over the last two to three years, which I think is a very important signal as well to the maturation of the market. It will stabilize and has continued to stabilize. But that does not mean there are not gains to be had. To the contrary, this is exactly what needs to happen to prove Bitcoin's foundation is into new markets that need deep liquidity. Right now, for the longest time, bitcoin has been too thin, has had too much volatility and too low liquidity to prove its case as a true store value asset and as a true collateral asset that can then become a medium of exchange and a broad unit of account. It's not had the capability to do that because the network hasn't been big enough. I genuinely think we are in the era of deepening the liquidity to the point to prove that bitcoin can do this. You can do it. You can do it all night long. I have been generally thinking for a while that the four year pattern, the four year cycle was going to break. We've seen exactly that. That the bear market was going to be more muted. If this is a bottom signal, we've seen exactly that. And that the bear market is going to be shorter than we expect because a normal bear market is going to be another puts us in another year of this. I genuinely think we're setting a floor and we're about to start growing again. I could be wrong about that, but a lot of the things that I wait to see are starting to show up. That's the capitulation signal for bitcoin Underwater. That's the 200 period moving average line. That's the relative strength index on the weekly and long charts. Each one of these have signaled we're running out of momentum towards the downside. It doesn't mean that it won't fall a little bit more or that it might do this one more time. But I do think it means that we're trying to find the floor so that we can start growing again. The secret to success in bitcoin is patience is patience patiently, cautiously, trustingly invested in the. The people who can sit tight are extremely few and far between, especially when it feels so crappy in the market. But inevitably they are the ones that win and even more so, the ones who are productive enough to stack a little bit more when it does feel like it does right now. Because at the end of the day, the money printing isn't going to stop. The debt isn't going to get lower. We, we double the US national debt every 10 years. We're already used to the fact that it's 38, 39 trillion dollars in 2015 just 10 years ago it was 16 trillion dollars. It's doubled every 10 years since 1975. In 2035, it's going to be 70 to 80 trillion dollars. In 2045 it's going to be 140 to 180 trillion dollars. What do you think the bitcoin price is going to be then? And how much are you really going to care about what it did in the last six months or in the next six months when you're looking back? In fact, you're not even going to see this move. Just like when you look back, all you see is what appears to be rocketing up. But I promise you, it didn't feel like that through any of those cycles. It felt like hell most of the time, with small periods of insane jubilation that turned into a hard, painful punch in the gut reality. This is just how Bitcoin does its thing. And this is actually a really strong market if you ask me. And I think we're in a great position going from a bottom of $15,000 to a bottom potentially somewhere around 60 or $62,000 is a hell of a growth pattern for a nascent asset in a monetary world where it's the only thing that sound and debt is going nothing but exponential. But if you actually want to hedge your bets against the fiat system and you do have the patience, the most important thing you can do is actually hold your own keys and do not trust that that paper ETF or that that financial instrument that says it's Bitcoin and is actually Bitcoin. Because if something does go wrong or we do have a big panic or a liquidity crisis, those are the ones that aren't going to pay out. Learn how to be patient, get it on a bitbox, hold your own keys, get a discount on your hardware wallet and support my show. That's a great way to do it. But please be a holder. Be patient. Don't confuse volatility with risk. Volatility is a product of liquidity and a market trying to figure out what it is. Valuing risk is about the underlying weakness or fragility of what you are purchasing. Bitcoin has no counterparty risk. It is a fundamentally different asset. Expect volatility because it's a fast growing, fast changing market opening into new liquidity all the time. Now nobody can promise that this is actually the bottom. We're seeing signals, but signals are just signals. Chartalism is just astrology for dudes. Part of me really wants to see 58k one more time. If Only just for the memes. But the only thing I can promise you is the debt is going to get worse. It's not going anywhere. That the money printing is going to get worse. It's not going anywhere because the only way that they can save themselves from the cost of the debt is to print the money. And the question is, are you going to be holding their bag? And there's one more thing that I want to advise is to remember that it's always going to feel the worst at the time when you actually have the biggest opportunity. When everybody is afraid, when everybody is certain it's a bear market. When, when you hear me say that it feels like a bottom signal or I'm seeing things that make me think it's going to turn around and you just want to. To spit on me. You just want. You're just like, oh, you're stupid. You have no idea. That feeling is exactly what separates the long term holders. It's exactly what separates those who actually stay and have patience in the market from those who are just trading and hoping to make a big win very, very quickly. If you can stay through these times, this is exactly how and when bitcoin pays off the best. There's a reason Baron Rothschild said buy when there's blood in the streets. That's when the greatest opportunity actually exists. As vicious and a little bit questionable as he may have meant by that statement, I don't know, that's just how I feel about it. I've been waiting for another dip. I feel like we're getting to a point where everybody is totally hopeless and that's usually good sign in my book that we are actually finding some sort of a floor. I'm curious what you guys think. Drop a comment. Feel free to like subscribe. Tell me I'm share it out with everybody. You know, that I'm stupid and I don't know what I'm talking about or that I may actually have a point worthwhile. Don't forget to check out Bitbox. Get yourself a hardware wallet. Please hold your own keys. If you're a bitcoin holder, you don't actually own anything unless you hold your own keys. And I got a discount for you right down in the show notes and that will wrap us up for the day. Thank you. That is my take and I will catch you on the next one.