Bitcoin Audible – Read_871: Hodlers: an apology
Host: Guy Swann
Date: February 28, 2025
Episode Overview
In this concise yet impactful episode, Guy Swann reads and reflects on a satirical "apology" article from the Financial Times directed toward Bitcoin holders—known as "hodlers"—in light of Bitcoin recently surpassing $100,000. The episode serves as both an analysis and a rebuttal of persistent anti-Bitcoin narratives, particularly the claim that Bitcoin's utility is trivial to duplicate and that its value is mere hype. Guy deconstructs the argument, using economic history and monetary theory, to highlight why Bitcoin's success is more than luck or being “the first,” and why such skepticism misses the fundamental properties that set Bitcoin apart.
Main Discussion Points
1. Setting the Stage: Bitcoiners vs. “Buttcoiners”
- Guy opens by noting how increasingly bitter Bitcoin critics have become as Bitcoin’s price and adoption soar.
- He introduces the focus: a short, sarcastic apology to Bitcoin holders from a Financial Times (FT) columnist, reflecting the latest tone in mainstream skepticism.
Notable Quote
"One of the best signs that we're winning is just how bitter all the buttcoiners are getting."
— Guy Swann [00:00]
2. Reading the Article: "Hodlers An Apology"
- The Financial Times piece admits to consistent skepticism of Bitcoin, maintaining it's a “negative-sum game” and "arbitrary hype gauge."
- The “apology” is tongue-in-cheek: FT claims they are “sorry” only if readers missed out on price gains because they trusted FT's skepticism.
- FT distances itself from tradfi (traditional finance) support, claiming they “hate that too.”
Key Article Passage [05:00]
"We are sorry if at any moment in the past 14 years you chose, based on your coverage, not to buy a thing whose number has gone up. It's nice when your number goes up."
3. Guy's Take: Critiquing the Critics
a. The “Trivial to Duplicate” Fallacy [08:30]
- Guy attacks the core of FT's premise: if Bitcoin’s utility is so trivial to replicate, why hasn't any alternative succeeded after 14 years?
- He draws analogies to failed “first technologies” (MySpace, Betamax) to show that merely being first doesn't guarantee dominance, so Bitcoin’s resilience must point to unique properties.
Notable Quote
"If you think it's trivial to duplicate the utility of Bitcoin, then why, after 14 years, has nothing even slightly competed with it?"
— Guy Swann [09:30]
b. The Real Purpose of Money [11:00]
- Guy explains that most critics misunderstand the function of money—confusing the result of good money with its purpose.
- He lays out how money must be able to “hold the entire value of society,” reliably, over time and across expanding networks.
Timestamps:
- [14:00] — Historical failures of “monetary goods” (animal hides, glass beads) illustrate how scalability and consistent scarcity are critical for money.
Notable Quote
"Money's greatest challenge is to hold the value of everything available for trade in the economic network, all of it, cumulatively, without breaking."
— Guy Swann [15:00]
c. Why Bitcoin Can't Be Duplicated [19:30]
- The real value of Bitcoin, Guy argues, is in its integrity, consistency, and the finality it guarantees—properties that forks and copycat coins instantly lose.
- He addresses the misunderstanding that Bitcoin is just a faster way to change account labels and points out why this reduces its profound design and security to a superficial function.
Timestamps:
- [22:00] — Forks and copycat coins (like Bitcoin Dark) have repeatedly proven unable to replicate Bitcoin’s qualities or attract lasting value.
Notable Quote
“The very act of copying it loses all of those properties instantly. It resets any potential value or integrity that it is and reputation that it has earned toward any of those goals at all…”
— Guy Swann [23:20]
d. The Defensiveness of Bitcoin Skeptics [30:00]
- Guy notes the tone of the FT article as "bitter and defensive," suggesting this is an admission of being fundamentally wrong.
- He equates this stance to historical resistance to technological paradigms (the grandmother refusing to use the internet, unaware her phone already works on it).
Notable Quote
“Bitter and defensive people know they do not know what they are talking about. That is their way to avoid admitting it to themselves.”
— Guy Swann [31:10]
4. The Arc of Bitcoin Skepticism [35:00]
- Guy observes a consistent lack of new arguments from Bitcoin detractors—the same claims have been recycled for over a decade, even as their predictions are disproved.
Notable Quote
“They have been so wrong that they have to publish a fake sarcastic apology in which they still defend the fact that they are right with no new evidence, no new explanation…”
— Guy Swann [36:40]
5. The Inertia of Critics and Institutional Capitulation [40:00]
- Guy highlights how even as infrastructure and regulatory integration deepen—the signs of adoption—critics dismiss these factors as either irrelevant or symptoms of hype.
Notable Quote
“Literally there is nothing else you could use as a metric of showing that something is succeeding and being adopted, then those… And you just kind of hand wave them away.”
— Guy Swann [42:30]
Noteworthy Analogies & Insights
- English Language Comparison: If critics claim Bitcoin can be copied at will, it’s like saying the English language can be copied at will, denying its entrenched network effects and societal embeddedness.
- Four Full Bitcoin Cycles: Guy emphasizes that we’re not talking about one lucky price run-up, but “four full Bitcoin cycles and a 500,000% increase” with failed rivals at every turn.
- Finality and Scarcity: No copy can inherit Bitcoin’s hard-earned properties because the act of copying erases network consensus and reputation.
Memorable Moments & Quotes
- “I wonder how long it takes… Peter Schiff will just die angry at Bitcoin, shaking his fist and Bitcoin’s $2 million.”
- “You cannot plan for the future in something that you do not know is going to actually be consistent.”
- “If you had listened to Financial Times, you certainly would have missed out on some stuff.”
- “Facts are stubborn things and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” — quoting John Adams [47:00]
Segment Timestamps
| Time | Segment / Topic | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Intro – Buttcoiners’ bitterness and episode setup | | 04:00 | Reading the FT’s “Hodlers: An Apology” | | 08:00 | Guy's Take: The triviality argument and first-mover fallacy | | 11:00 | The real purpose and function of money: store of societal value | | 15:00 | Economic history: why past monies failed to scale | | 19:30 | Bitcoin’s actual innovation: Scarcity, consistency, integrity | | 23:00 | Forks/copycats and why they fail | | 30:00 | Skeptics’ tone: Defensive and bitter as a sign of having no argument | | 35:00 | Four full Bitcoin cycles; continual failure of altcoin competitors | | 40:00 | Institutional adoption & hand-waving away evidence of success | | 45:00 | Closing thoughts, analogies, and John Adams quote |
Tone & Style
Guy Swann's tone is confident, occasionally incredulous, and tinged with dry humor—he mixes sharp critique with accessible, plain-language explanations. His analogies are vivid and his arguments structured to be both convincing for newcomers and informative for seasoned listeners.
Takeaway Summary
In this episode, Guy Swann unpacks why persistent Bitcoin skepticism—especially the idea that its success is accidental or trivial to replicate—reflects a deep misunderstanding of Bitcoin’s unique qualities. Through historical context, economic analysis, and logical rebuttal, Guy argues that Bitcoin’s systemic advantages (scarcity, consistency, and integrity) cannot be copied, and that continued negative takes are evidence not of Bitcoin’s flaws, but of critics’ failure to reconsider disproven premises. The episode urges listeners to recognize network effects and monetary function, not superficial metrics, as the source of Bitcoin’s enduring rise.