Bitcoin Audible - Read_925: Stone Ridge 2025 Investor Letter

Host: Guy Swann
Episode Date: January 7, 2026

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode features Guy Swann’s reading and commentary on the Stone Ridge Asset Management 2025 Investor Letter by Ross Stevens. The letter examines the philosophical and operational foundations behind Stone Ridge, exploring themes of adaptability, Bayesian thinking, the role of company culture, and how Bitcoin—contrary to media criticism—is providing critical real-world value. With insights into business, finance, energy, and human rights, the episode blends investment strategy and heartfelt advocacy, drawing lessons applicable across fields and offering inspiration to Bitcoiners and entrepreneurs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction: Context Setting

• Opens with a reflection on Bitcoin criticism and a real-world retort from Iranian activist Zaya Sadir (00:00):

  “There isn’t a single goddamn thing that bitcoin can do for retail that Apple Pay doesn’t already do. 10x better.”
  — A Bitcoin critic on Twitter, 2019
  “I can’t use Apple Pay, PayPal, Visa or Master or anything like them. I’m from Iran. I can use Bitcoin. What do you have to say?”
  — Zaya Sadir, Iranian human rights activist

• Guy Swann expresses excitement for the new Stone Ridge letter:

  "Ross Stevens always has a way with words. And I find the company fascinating...I have no, like, reinsurance...but I am always fascinated by how he runs his business..." (01:11)

2. Stone Ridge Letter: Leadership Through Bayesian Thinking

• Opening Anecdote: Mel Fisher and Treasure Hunting (05:13–09:06)

  • Mel Fisher spent 16 years seeking a Spanish shipwreck using the daily motto: “Today’s the day.”
  • Fisher’s persistence and adaptive thinking exemplify Bayesian iteration—learning from each failure to get “less wrong” daily.
  • Quote:

    “Fisher’s ‘Today’s the day’ philosophy reframed what would have otherwise been a mentally torturous journey...into daily play, characterized by disciplined guessing, dispassionate refinement, and the singular goal of ending the day less wrong.” (06:32)

• Bayesian Statistics in Practice (09:06–15:00)

  • Ross Stevens, Stone Ridge’s founder, recounts his background in Bayesian statistics, describing their practical power in both treasure hunting and investment.
  • Emphasizes humility and the need to continually update beliefs:

    “The people who learn fastest are the ones who are most willing to be wrong. With the humility to trade conviction for information one update at a time.” (12:08)

• Application to Energy Investments & Reinsurance (15:00–29:00)

  • Stone Ridge’s approach to energy investments:
    • Noticing untapped opportunity (60,000 acres of un-drilled land), they ran tightly controlled tests—analogous to Bayesian updating.
    • “No less precious motherlode means that the $10 billion lifetime revenue we originally expected…now looks more like $15 billion.” (22:05)
  • Bayesian philosophy applies beyond exploration: adaptability is the firm’s “AQ—adaptability quotient.”
    • “Our progress depends on eruptions of good questions and truly listening to the answers. We would rather look dumb by asking than not ask and be dumb.” (14:30)

• Business Culture and Alignment (46:00–54:00)

  • Longevity and innovation in mutual insurers; importance of innovation and holding fast to core rituals.
  • “At Stone Ridge, we care deeply about how we present ourselves to outsiders because we matter and so do they.” (49:24)
  • No HR department:

    “No HR is the gift that keeps on giving. Because the very best people are repelled by those addicted to comfort.” (52:31)

3. Bitcoin’s Real-World Value – The Human Rights Angle

• Media Criticism vs. Reality (33:00–36:00)

  • The Atlantic claims Bitcoin “has yet to demonstrate any serious use case.”
  • Stevens rebuts:

    “87% of humans today…were born into a monetary system without a reserve currency and also without democracy, rule of law or property rights...If Bitcoin has no use case, perhaps the Atlantic editors should convert their entire life savings into Malawian Kwacha and see how it goes.” (33:24)

  • Malawi as case study: 44% currency devaluation overnight.

• Bitcoin for the Oppressed (36:40–43:00)

  • Highlights Zaya Sadir’s experience (Iran) and Maria Corina Machado in Venezuela.
  • Quote from Machado (Venezuelan pro-democracy leader):

    “Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape...We envision Bitcoin becoming part of our national reserves, helping rebuild what the dictatorship stole.” (39:54)

  • Bitcoin as a tool for sovereignty and humanitarian resistance.

• Direct Message from Machado to Ross Stevens (44:00)

  • Deeply personal gratitude for the support enabling her escape and continued advocacy:

    “I want you to know that your personal commitment to our struggle for freedom translates directly into action...I will not cease in this struggle for freedom and I certainly look forward to welcoming you and hosting you and your family in our beautiful country and a free Venezuela." (43:55)

4. Company & Personal Culture: Rituals, Alignment, and Optimism

• Company Rituals and Policies (46:00–54:00)

  • In-office work, no-device meetings, walking guests to elevators, business cards—rituals to foster connection and respect.
  • Unlimited maternity leave, focus on alignment between employee and company mission.
  • “At Stoneridge, our people are our moat.” (47:10)

• Adaptability, Humility, and Learning (77:30–84:00)

  • Guy ties these lessons to his own journey:
    • The necessity of optimism:

      “Pessimism is self defeating, like necessarily so...Belief about your success must necessarily come before any chance of success is real.” (73:27)

    • Adaptability as key to survival in evolving business environments.
    • Reflects on the importance of building products for oneself:

      “If I spend all this money or this time and resources into building a thing, I’m gonna build something for myself. Because basically the worst thing that will happen is that I'll have something that I want if this doesn't take off.” (66:30)

5. Reflections & Takeaways (57:45–92:56)

• On Storytelling and Leadership
  • The power of narrative in company culture; business lessons from leaders and from books about story.
  • Guy discusses his own struggles, learning curves, and the value of staying optimistic and adaptive even through setbacks.
• Personal Endorsement of Stone Ridge’s Philosophy
  • Deep admiration for Ross Stevens’s standards and approach:

    “The idea of thinking that three people voluntarily leaving in 36 months...is something to see as a negative is just, it's just fantastic. It's like, hell yeah. Have standards like that.” (88:47)

• Closing Thoughts
  • The episode ends with Guy expressing hope, inspiration, and the intent to persevere in his own ventures:

    “But today's the day, you know...I think it's a good ass idea and I am also damn certain no matter how painful it is and how many, how many f ups I have along the way, I am certain I can build it.” (89:01)

• Sign-off quote:

  “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.”
  — William Shakespeare (92:56)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The people who learn fastest are the ones who are most willing to be wrong. With the humility to trade conviction for information one update at a time.” [Ross Stevens quoting Alec Litowitz] (12:08)
• “If you don’t hold Bitcoin, please step out of the line. This line is for people who have money, not fiat...Fiat is always and everywhere a Ponzi phenomenon...Bitcoin, it’s Kryptonite.” (33:24)
• “Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape. Today, Bitcoin bypasses government imposed exchange rates and thus helps many of our people.” [Maria Corina Machado] (39:54)
• “No HR is the gift that keeps on giving. Because the very best people are repelled by those addicted to comfort.” (52:31)
• “Pessimism is self defeating, like necessarily so...Belief about your success must necessarily come before any chance of success is real.” (73:27)
• “In the eight years I’ve done this, I have gone through...at least four, maybe five periods in which I was completely burnt out. I was certain it was going to fail...And I had to take a good, hard look at what I was doing...” [Guy Swann] (85:13)

Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:00] Cold open: Contrasting Bitcoin critics vs. real users
• [05:13] Stone Ridge Letter begins: Mel Fisher story
• [09:06] Bayesian thinking for business and leadership
• [15:00] Application to energy and investment—“Bayesian treasure hunting”
• [33:24] Bitcoin’s real use case: Human rights and financial oppression
• [39:54] Maria Corina Machado on Bitcoin for Venezuelan resistance
• [44:00] Machado’s personal message to Ross Stevens
• [46:00] Company culture: Rituals, no HR, unlimited maternity leave
• [66:30] Guy on product philosophy: “Build for yourself first”
• [73:27] The necessity of optimism for success
• [85:13] Guy’s personal struggle, burnout, and renewal
• [92:56] Closing Shakespeare quote

Summary Takeaways

• Adaptability and Humility: Both Stone Ridge and Guy emphasize the importance of rapidly updating one’s perspectives and strategies based on new information and experience.
• Narrative & Culture: The right company culture, informed by strong narrative and meaningful rituals, is often more decisive for success than ideas or technical skill alone.
• Bitcoin’s Social Impact: Beyond financial speculation, Bitcoin is solidifying its place as a vital economic tool for those living under financial oppression, as exemplified in Venezuela and Iran.
• Optimism as a Prerequisite for Success: Hope and a “today’s the day” attitude are not just nice-to-have—they’re essential to perseverance and eventual achievement.
• Alignment of Interest: Building products and businesses that you yourself want and use creates unmatched alignment with your customers or investors.
• Personal Growth through Storytelling: Reading, storytelling, and the ability to frame narratives are both business multipliers and personal growth levers.

For Listeners: Why This Episode Matters

This episode weaves together inspired business philosophy, practical applications of Bayesian thinking, the lived experience of human rights activists using Bitcoin under dire circumstances, and the importance of optimism, adaptability, and culture in pursuit of entrepreneurial or investment success. It’s as much an educational treatise as it is motivation for builders and investors in and beyond Bitcoin.

Recommended for:

• Bitcoiners and Bitcoin-curious
• Investment professionals
• Entrepreneurs/startup founders
• Human rights advocates
• Anyone seeking inspiration from real-world stories of perseverance, adaptability, and principled leadership

Listen, learn, and be inspired to find your own “today’s the day.”