Bitcoin Audible – Take_098: Taking Stock of Our Wins

Host: Guy Swann
Date: February 19, 2025

Episode Overview

In this “Guy’s Take” episode, Guy Swann steps away from technical deep dives and common complaints to reflect on Bitcoin’s significant victories over the past decade. Addressing the doom-and-gloom perspectives prevalent in both the Bitcoin and broader crypto communities, Guy delivers a thorough, energetic, and optimistic review of the real, tangible accomplishments that have propelled Bitcoin forward. He highlights both celebrated and subtle wins, aiming to offer much-needed perspective—and humility—to an often hyper-critical audience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Value of Perspective and Recognizing Progress

• [02:15] Guy opens by stressing the ease of “poo-pooing” Bitcoin’s progress and the difficulty many have in acknowledging that not all wins come as expected.
• Perspective: It's important to recognize that Bitcoin’s path to success may not align with personal ideological predictions.

“…it’s foolish not to recognize and count the successes and overwhelming progress… things might not happen in exactly the path and order of events that we would expect.” (Guy Swann, 00:39)

2. Rebutting Defeatism: The ETF & Institutional Adoption

• [05:50] Guy confronts the “Bitcoin is lost because TradFi owns it now” narrative, especially regarding ETFs and BlackRock.
• Main Point: Bitcoin, as an open and permissionless protocol, was always meant to be accessible to all—including enemies and institutions.

“…the worst thing about [Bitcoin] is that all of the great sovereignty and freedoms… will be available to the person that you dislike most…” (07:50)

• Idea: Institutional adoption does not threaten Bitcoin’s core values. Instead, it demonstrates its radical neutrality and resilience.

3. Why Institutionalization Doesn’t Threaten Bitcoin

• [11:40] Guy unpacks why ETF investors are "necessarily the weakest hands"—they are not the diehards who make or uphold protocol decisions.

“…they are, by definition, the most ignorant and the weakest hands in the entire ecosystem. They have no idea what they own...” (13:11)

• Protocol Wars: Only those with deep conviction have historically shaped major technological battles (as seen in the Internet, Linux, and Bitcoin itself).

4. TradFi’s Capitulation: The ETF Is a Massive Win

• [22:45] ETFs represent both the normalization and permanent legal acceptance of Bitcoin.
• Win for Bitcoin: The main risk—outright prohibition—is off the table; instead, Bitcoin has been assimilated into mainstream finance, even during an antagonistic regime.

“…we have crossed the Rubicon on whether or not bitcoin will be banned. That entire argument is behind us now.” (25:20)

• ETF Demand: The Bitcoin ETF launch was "one of the most successful ETFs in the history of ETFs.” Media, politicians, and major institutions are now forced to acknowledge and even promote Bitcoin.

5. Energy Sector Shifts: Methane & Waste Energy

• [35:45] Bitcoin mining's transformation of energy economics: It is now recognized as a monetizer of waste energy (e.g., flared methane), once considered “radical.”
• LNL Study: Globally, 2/3 of energy produced is lost—Bitcoin is uniquely situated to capture otherwise wasted energy.

“Bitcoin will be the best thing to happen to lower energy waste as any technology in a hundred years.” (39:50)

6. Geopolitics of Mining: The China FUD Died

• [50:10] The shift from “China controls mining” to “the US controls mining” FUD shows how transient mining centralization risks are.

“...when China controls it all FUD turns into North America controls it all FUD in just a few years…” (50:28)

7. MicroStrategy/Saylor’s Speculative Attack

• [53:30] MicroStrategy’s relentless Bitcoin accumulation—outperforming indexes and becoming S&P 500-eligible—is described as an "unbelievable win" and ongoing real-world demonstration of Bitcoin's role as pristine collateral.

“...what [Saylor] is doing is essentially a speculative attack... and he is succeeding massively...” (55:48)

8. Policy, Law, and Public Perception

• [01:01:00] Pardoning Ross Ulbricht, the appointment of a US “crypto czar,” and discussions of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” are framed as wins—even if not universally supported by the Bitcoin community.
• Operation Chokepoint 2.0: Regulatory attempts to suppress Bitcoin failed, indicating a monumental shift in political acceptance and resilience.

9. The Power of Adversarial Inclusion

• [01:08:47] Radical neutrality means adversaries, institutions, and even regimes benefit from Bitcoin—this is not a bug but a feature of its global design.

10. Explosion of Decentralized Technology

• [01:13:45] The rise of Nostr and related protocols as open, censorship-resistant social layers with native Lightning payments is highlighted as an underappreciated leap.

“...the unbelievable power of NOSTR and what that protocol represents. I use it every single day and it’s not because of social media.” (01:16:10)

11. The Coming AI & Open-Source Supercycle

• [01:26:40] Large language models (LLMs) now almost able to load the entire Bitcoin codebase, unlocking new potential for self-education, code review, and independent development.
• AI-Driven Modularity: Open protocols like Bitcoin will benefit disproportionately due to the millions of independent developers using AI to build and audit infrastructure.

12. Lightning Network Adoption

• [01:34:00] Lightning is “normalized”—useful, widely supported, and increasingly integrated.

“Lightning works. I use it all the time...” (01:36:10)

• Real-World Example: Guy demonstrates real-time, non-custodial zaps on Nostr to debunk Lightning incapability FUD.

13. Living on a Bitcoin Standard

• [01:38:10] Bitcoin-native living tools (cards, payments, liquidity, etc.) have matured drastically—Guy now finds it cheaper and easier to live on Bitcoin than fiat.
• Infrastructure Maturity: The fact these tools exist showcases enormous progress in ecosystem liquidity and reliability.

14. Bitcoin as Ultimate Collateral

• [01:45:23] The emergence of robust bitcoin-backed loan products is a monumental leap.
• “Perfect solution” fallacy: Instead of waiting for utopia, use and iterate upon the real but imperfect tools—a huge leap from the fiat world.

“Bitcoin is the only asset on planet earth that is both sound and has native multi-signature technology.” (01:52:20)

15. The Most Important Win: The Haters Hedged

• [01:57:31] Perhaps the subtlest—and most critical—win: Even Bitcoin’s harshest critics (e.g., Peter Schiff) now admit they “aren’t sure it will ever die.”
• Lindy Effect: Bitcoin’s apparent immortality forces capitulation, not conversion—haters hedge rather than bet against it.

“The great capitulation is not that everybody loves it and everybody becomes a bitcoiner. It’s that everybody who hates it… admits that it’s not going away…” (01:58:08)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Permissionlessness:
  “What about a decentralized, open, permissionless, global money made them think that it was somehow going to exclude the people that they didn’t like?” (07:20)
• On Institutional Adoption:
  “…the fact that you and your enemy are both using Bitcoin and neither one of you can change what Bitcoin means to the other… is exactly what money for enemies means…” (08:23)
• On ETF Approval:
  “…this wasn’t just a successful ETF launch. It was one of the most successful ETFs in the history of ETFs.” (32:10)
• On Waste Energy:
  “Bitcoin will be the best thing to happen to lower energy waste as any technology in a hundred years.” (39:50)
• On the ETF/Transparency:
  “…nobody else has any clue how much gold or silver or wheat is behind whatever other ETF out there. Literally bitcoin is the only one where you can point at it and be like, oh yeah, well there it is.” (01:54:20)
• On the Haters:
  “The great capitulation is not that everybody loves it and everybody becomes a bitcoiner. It’s that everybody who hates it… admits that it’s not going away…” (01:58:08)
• On Humility:
  “Whatever it is you are seeking won’t come in the form you are expecting.” — Haruki Murakami (02:02:44)

Important Timestamps

• 00:39 — Episode theme introduction: counting our wins.
• 07:20 — Guy addresses anti-ETF/BlackRock narratives.
• 13:11 — Why ETF holders don’t threaten Bitcoin protocol.
• 25:20 — ETF as end of ban threat; TradFi capitulation.
• 35:45 — Waste energy & mining: a new paradigm.
• 39:50 — Global energy statistics and Bitcoin’s impact.
• 50:10 — Mining centralization FUD is transient.
• 53:30 — MicroStrategy and Saylor’s speculative attack.
• 01:01:00 — Policy wins: Ulbricht, “crypto czar,” Operation Chokepoint.
• 01:16:10 — The promise of Nostr & decentralized protocols.
• 01:26:40 — AI, open-source, and the future of software.
• 01:34:00 — Lightning Network: normalized, used, not perfect.
• 01:38:10 — Living (easily) on a Bitcoin standard.
• 01:45:23 — Bitcoin-backed loans & the “real” solution to money.
• 01:57:31 — “The haters have hedged”: Bitcoin is Lindy.

Conclusion

Guy Swann’s passionate, unscripted overview ranges from regulatory submission and institutional adoption, to unseen wins in energy and social technology—all culminating in a simple but profound truth: the mere fact that Bitcoin’s bitterest critics are now forced to acknowledge its permanence is the clearest indicator of victory yet. The episode offers optimism grounded in realistic analysis and encourages listeners to stay both humble and attentive to how real historical change unfolds—not always in ways we’d predict or prescribe.

For those feeling disillusioned or worried about Bitcoin’s direction, this episode provides a powerful, detailed antidote—and a strong case for focusing on real progress over perfect expectations.