Short Truths 23 || Are Elephants In Africa Doing Okay?

Summary

Blood Origins Podcast Summary

Episode: Short Truths 23 || Are Elephants In Africa Doing Okay?
Release Date: June 4, 2025
Host/Author: Blood Origins Inc.

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Introduction

In the 23rd episode of Short Truths, Blood Origins Inc. delves into the pressing question: Are elephants in Africa doing okay? The discussion transcends the typical narrative of elephants being endangered, examining the nuanced realities of their populations across different African regions. This episode challenges prevailing conservation rhetoric, offering a data-driven perspective on elephant populations and habitat constraints in the context of an expanding human populace.

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Current Status of Elephant Populations in Africa

The episode begins by distinguishing between the general concern of elephant endangerment and the more specific question of whether current elephant populations are sustainable. Speaker D articulates this distinction:

“Are elephants doing well or not? It's a little different of a question than Are elephants endangered?” ([01:57])

This sets the stage for a comprehensive analysis of elephant populations across various African nations, questioning the long-held narrative that elephants are on the brink of extinction.

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Regional Breakdown

South Africa

South Africa presents a paradox in elephant conservation. Contrary to common narratives of scarcity, the country faces an oversupply of elephants:

“In South Africa right now, you cannot give an elephant away for free. People have elephants. They want to get rid of elephants because they're causing too much habitat change for their liking.” ([02:30])

With populations in Kruger National Park estimated between 24,000 and 35,000, South Africa is grappling with habitat saturation:

“Kruger national park is at somewhere between 24,000 and 35,000 elephants, depending on who you speak to.” ([02:45])

Namibia

Namibia's elephant population stands at approximately 36,000, nearing the habitat's carrying capacity:

“Namibia's elephant population is currently around 36,000 elephants, and they're pretty much at carrying capacity for the habitat that they have.” ([03:00])

Efforts are underway to manage this population by relocating elephants to neighboring countries like Angola and Zaire.

Angola and Zaire

Both Angola and Zaire have minimal elephant populations:

“Angola is a massive country and there's a huge opportunity to grow elephant populations in Angola. Same thing with Zaire.” ([03:30])

The potential for increasing elephant numbers in these regions remains largely untapped due to limited current populations.

Botswana

Botswana boasts the largest elephant population in Africa, estimated between 150,000 and 180,000:

“Botswana has the largest elephant population in Africa... You're looking at a population of probably 150 to 180,000 elephants.” ([04:15])

This figure is significantly higher than scientific recommendations for healthy ecosystems, raising concerns about overpopulation.

Zimbabwe and Mozambique

Zimbabwe's elephant numbers range from 80,000 to 100,000, exceeding habitat capacity:

“Zimbabwe. 80 to 100,000 elephants, depending on who you talk to, over carrying capacity.” ([05:00])

Mozambique maintains a population near its habitat's capacity, with limited room for growth:

“Mozambique can still take some elephants, but not many.” ([05:15])

Tanzania and Kenya

Tanzania's elephant population is projected to rise to near 80,000 by the next survey in 2024, indicating overcapacity:

“Tanzania is predicted to be closer to 80,000 elephants. Over carrying capacity for the habitat...” ([05:45])

Kenya currently harbors about 22,000 to 24,000 elephants, suggesting potential for population growth:

“Kenya is now at about 22 to 24,000 elephants. All other African countries probably could take more elephants.” ([06:00])

Other African Countries

The discussion highlights that while southern and eastern Africa face habitat constraints, other African nations might accommodate more elephants, though the overarching trend points toward saturation in key regions.

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Historical Perspective and Changing Narratives

Historically, conservation narratives have depicted a dire decline in elephant populations. However, Speaker D challenges this by highlighting a paradox:

“If you rewind the clock two decades, you will read headlines... we probably have more elephants today in Africa than we've ever had in probably the last hundred years.” ([06:30])

This shift suggests a complex reality where elephant numbers have rebounded, possibly surpassing sustainable levels in certain areas.

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Present Challenges and Future Outlook

The core issue lies in the juxtaposition of growing human populations and diminishing habitats:

“With the human population in Africa predicted to go to 5 billion... the pressure on habitat... will mean diminishing habitat for wildlife and specifically elephants.” ([07:15])

Additionally, the increased human-elephant conflict poses significant challenges:

“It'll also mean increased human wildlife conflict with elephants.” ([07:30])

Speaker D posits that current elephant densities likely exceed what is sustainable for healthy ecosystems:

“We would probably find out that the density of elephants is way above what suggested scientists recommend for healthy ecosystems moving forward.” ([07:45])

This situation presents a conservation conundrum: balancing elephant populations with limited and shrinking habitats amidst a burgeoning human population.

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Conclusion

The episode concludes by urging a paradigm shift in conservation discourse:

“The conversation needs to move away from elephants being endangered to how do we manage the elephants that we have today...” ([08:10])

Rather than solely focusing on preventing extinction, there is a pressing need to address sustainable management practices that consider both elephant populations and human developmental pressures.

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Final Thoughts

Short Truths 23 offers a provocative reevaluation of elephant conservation in Africa, challenging listeners to reconsider established narratives. By presenting data that suggests elephant populations in certain regions may already be at or above sustainable levels, Blood Origins Inc. sparks a necessary dialogue on the future of wildlife conservation in the face of human expansion.

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Notable Quotes

• “Are elephants doing well or not? It's a little different of a question than Are elephants endangered?” – Speaker D ([01:57])
• “In South Africa right now, you cannot give an elephant away for free...” – Speaker D ([02:30])
• “Botswana has the largest elephant population in Africa...” – Speaker D ([04:15])
• “If you rewind the clock two decades... we probably have more elephants today...” – Speaker D ([06:30])
• “The conversation needs to move away from elephants being endangered to how do we manage the elephants that we have today...” – Speaker D ([08:10])

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This episode of Blood Origins serves as a crucial contribution to the discourse on wildlife conservation, emphasizing the need for informed and adaptive management strategies to ensure the coexistence of humans and elephants in Africa.

Transcript

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Have you always wanted to learn something more about a hunting related topic? Or always wanted to say something to someone on social media that called out something related to hunting? Or even how to address a statement made by colleagues around hunting? You want to be confident in your response, but you're just not equipped with enough knowledge, facts or questions to sound intelligent. In the next five minutes, I'll give you what you need. Short, sharp information, dense and to the point. Here we go.

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Okay, so here's the question. Are elephants doing well or not? It's a little different of a question than Are elephants endangered? Because it really speaks to the practicality, logic, nature of whether elephants are doing well or not. There's a lot of complications, political maneuverings, all tied to whether an animal gets listed endangered or not, traded or not. But is the population of elephants doing well or not? It's interesting. When you look online or you Google are elephants endangered? Or what's the status of elephants? You will find hundreds of nonprofits, yes, hundreds of nonprofits that are raising money to save the African elephant. Save the Elephants is a narrative and a rhetoric that has been around probably for the last 25 to 30 years, and you will hear the same rhetoric coming out of all of them. Number one, elephant populations have declined by 90%. This decline is true. The magnitude of it is up for debate because there's very few good scientific references of what the elephant population used to be like. Granted, today society 2024 is not 1850, nor is the human population of Africa in 2024 the same as it was in 1850 or 1750. So the idea of comparing an elephant population today to what it was like in the 1800s or 1700s is a bit illogical, right? And secondly, the rhetoric you will find is that elephants desperately need your help. Well, is that true? Are those two pieces of rhetoric actually true? So let's just go country by country. Let's start in the south and move our way north. In South Africa right now, you cannot give an elephant away for free. People have elephants. They want to get rid of elephants because they're causing too much habitat change for their liking. They're in a fenced area. And I have seen and heard of people saying, I have elephants to give. All you have to do is come and get them. And there is nobody who wants elephants. So South Africa right now is saturated with elephants. You can almost argue that there's too many elephants. Kruger national park is at somewhere between 24,000 and 35,000 elephants, depending on who you speak to. Namibia. Namibia's elephant population is currently around 36,000 elephants, and they're pretty much at carrying capacity for the habitat that they have. There are efforts underway in Namibia in private farms that are looking to reduce their elephant populations. And they are starting to move elephants up into Angola, up into Zaire, in places that need elephants. So let's just go ahead and talk about them. Angola. We have no idea the elephant population in Angola, but we think it is very, very, very small. Angola is a massive country and there's a huge opportunity to grow elephant populations in Angola. Same thing with Zaire. Let's go east of Namibia. Botswana has the largest elephant population in Africa. The Kaza survey area, which is 21 to 28% of the land area of Botswana, has counted 132,000 elephants. If you consider the other 72% of area in Botswana that is showing elephants being sedentary. That is, they're living there permanently now in areas where they never had elephants before. You're looking at a population of probably 150 to 180,000 elephants. Way, way, way, potentially three times over. This magical idea of carrying capacity in Botswana. Let's go to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe. 80 to 100,000 elephants, depending on who you talk to, over carrying capacity. Mozambique. Probably near or close to carrying capacity. Mozambique can still take some elephants, but not many. Let's go north. Tanzania. Tanzania has, at the last survey, 60,000 elephants. Predicted to be the next survey, which is happening here in 2024, to be closer to 80,000 elephants. Over carrying capacity for the habitat that is now available in Tanzania. Go further north. Kenya. Kenya is now at about 22 to 24,000 elephants. All other African countries probably could take more elephants. What I've just laid out to you is that for the most part, southern Africa and East Africa has no more space, no more capacity for elephants. Interestingly, if you rewind the clock two decades, you will read newspaper headlines, articles saying that if something is not done about elephants now, granted, we came out of the worst poaching crisis we've ever seen, then we will have elephant extinction in two decades, wherein the reverse is true, and that we probably have more elephants today in Africa than we've ever had in probably the last hundred years. So are elephants doing okay in Africa? The answer really is we're entering into a time frame in which the conversation needs to move away from elephants being endangered to how do we manage the elephants that we have today with the habitat availability constrained to us by a booming human population? And the most controversial statement here is that we may have too many elephants already. With the human population in Africa predicted to go to 5 billion, currently sitting at around 2 billion by 2050, the pressure on habitat, the pressure for humans to feed themselves, to industrialize on forestry products, will all mean diminishing habitat for wildlife and specifically elephants. It'll also mean increased human wildlife conflict with elephants. Honestly, I think if someone did the analysis of available habitat today to the elephant population that we have, we would probably find out that the density of elephants is way above what suggested scientists recommend for healthy ecosystems moving forward. Which leaves us in a conundrum, really. Right. Available habitat is decreasing and diminishing, and elephant populations are increasing. So are elephants doing well or not? There's my answer. Well, that's it for today. I appreciate you listening. As always, leave a review, share it with your friends, and most importantly, do what's right to convey the truth around hunting.

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