Apple Sales Crush Estimates in Record Quarter for the iPhone

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Apple Sales Crush Estimates in Record Quarter for the iPhone
Date: January 29, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec (plus co-host, likely Caroline Hyde)
Featured Guests: Mark Gurman (Bloomberg's Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech), Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech co-host), Tom Narayan (RBC Capital Markets), Lauren Goodwin (New York Life Investments)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek dives deep into Apple's blowout fiscal quarter, focusing on record-smashing iPhone sales, Apple's global strategy (especially in China), the looming questions around AI and leadership succession, and macroeconomic risks for markets. The hosts consult top tech reporters and financial strategists for insights on Apple’s model, the ongoing AI race, and Amazon and Tesla’s positions.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Apple’s Record Quarter — Why Was It So Good?

With Mark Gurman, 02:21–05:58

• Record revenue: Apple posted a monumental quarter, described as a “home run” by Mark Gurman. The iPhone led, with sales smashing estimates, propelling overall company revenue to $85 billion for the quarter, beating even the highest analyst forecasts.

  “$85 billion quarter is just insane. The installed base two and a half billion. The numbers are just beyond excellent.” — Mark Gurman (02:21)

• China comeback: China revenue of $25.53 billion greatly beat estimates ($21.82 billion), showing renewed strength in a critical market.

• Importance of design refresh: Mark highlights that new iPhone designs (the first in half a decade) drive substantial sales spikes and customer upgrades.

  “People buy the new designs. This is the first new design in half a decade. It got it done.” — Mark Gurman (06:23)

• Supply chain savvy: Apple’s ability to pre-purchase components far in advance protected margins despite rising memory chip prices.

  “They’re working off of numbers and pricing and materials here that really give them extensive pricing power over competitors.” — Mark Gurman (03:45)

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2. Big Picture: Existential Questions for Apple

AI Uncertainty and Succession, 04:07–08:56

• AI Reckoning Looms: Despite the monster quarter, Gurman returns to Apple’s future risk—its currently unclear AI strategy.

  “There needs to be an AI reckoning of some sort there. But they just bought themselves a very long time with this just insanely great quarter.” — Mark Gurman (02:57)

• Reliance on Google: Apple’s interim AI advancements rely on partnerships, particularly with Google’s Gemini model, rather than developing internal large language models (LLMs).

  “They have nothing internal. So...they’re partnering with the best partner they can...which for now is Google.” — Mark Gurman (05:28)

• Leadership Succession: The topic of who comes after Tim Cook remains largely unaddressed, though Gurman and hosts agree it’s a key long-term question, one unlikely to be tackled candidly on analyst calls.

  “They’ve got to ask about AI, and they’ve got to ask about succession. I’m sure they’re not going to, though.” — Mark Gurman (08:43)

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3. China: What Drove the Unexpected Rebound?

Design, Demand, and Strategy, 05:58–06:54

• New Designs Spark Demand: Gurman attributes Apple’s China surge to the introduction of dramatic new iPhone designs, which reliably entice both new and upgrading customers.

  “That’s why you do new designs, because you’re trying to bring in new customers, upgrades. But that’s the way to do it.” — Mark Gurman (06:23)

• Supply chain timing: Apple’s typical procurement cycles and forward-planning helped manage component shortages and price volatility, especially in memory chips.

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4. AI Acquisitions and R&D Direction

Notable Acquisition in Israel, 06:54–07:25

• Startup Purchase: Apple recently acquired an Israeli AI startup focused on interpreting facial movement, signaling interest in enhancing features for AirPods, smart glasses, and other devices.

  “I think it’s going to enable some features for future AirPods, smart glasses and mixed reality headsets...but it’s not fundamental to the overall AI strategy, which I think they’re still trying to figure out.” — Mark Gurman (07:11)

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5. Apple’s Political Tightrope

Tim Cook, Public Statements, and Business Protection, 07:25–08:37

• CEO commentary: Recent statements by Tim Cook, particularly regarding political events, are increasingly cautious and business-centric.

  “This is not about taking a stand at this point for him. This is about protecting the underlying business. And the results speak for themselves. The underlying business seems pretty well protected.” — Mark Gurman (07:57)

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6. Analyst & Investor Reactions

With Ed Ludlow, 12:19–24:21

• “Unprecedented demand”: iPhone’s strength drove the entire quarter. Even the most bullish estimates were far surpassed.

  “Even the top end of the most bullish ranges on how this iPhone would do were only about $81 billion. I think it came in above $85 billion.” — Ed Ludlow (12:39)

• Skepticism of third-party data: Apple’s on-the-ground results in China outstripped consensus data that had predicted softness in the region.

• AI and Google Partnership: Ed reiterates that as long as Apple’s numbers are strong, investors are content to overlook Apple’s slow internal AI rollout. Apple’s $1 billion-per-year Gemini partnership is an open secret.

  “Apple has done enough to mask over or allay the concerns that investors have about a lack of progress in AI as a product.” — Ed Ludlow (14:55)

• Margins and supply chain: Apple’s size gives it crucial leverage with suppliers during times of component scarcity and high prices.

  “If you’re a very big company, you have leverage with your supply base ... it helps to be Apple, is what I’m saying.” — Ed Ludlow (17:04)

• Succession (again): There is no sign that Tim Cook’s departure is imminent, and operational continuity remains valued during turbulent times.

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7. Amazon’s Massive AI Ambitions

OpenAI Investment News, 22:27–24:09

• Amazon may invest $50B of a $100B OpenAI round: Indicative of the enormous scale and competitive positioning among hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) amid the AI platform wars.

  “Amazon probably can invest that much money. ... OpenAI needs capital. It is coming from multiple places apparently. ... this is a big large anchor round before a future IPO as well of some parts of the open air entity.” — Ed Ludlow (23:04)

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8. Tesla's Transformation

With Tom Narayan, 24:52–30:58

• Tesla as a tech/AI company: Tesla is moving beyond just car sales to focus on autonomy and robotics, essential to its trillion-dollar valuation.

  “It’s more of an AI investment. ... The car business is in the past.” — Tom Narayan (25:19)

• Valuation challenges: Realizing this future will take many years, with the full impact of robotaxis and humanoids possibly not visible until 2035-2050.

  “So you may have to wait a long time to actually see the earnings where it results in a multiple. ... What penetration do you think these guys could achieve?” — Tom Narayan (30:24)

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9. Market & Macro Risks

With Lauren Goodwin, 33:55–43:26

• Biggest market risk: Inflation unexpectedly moving higher; more so than geopolitics, inflation data could force big market shifts.

  “If in a couple of weeks we have an inflation report that shows inflation is moving back up . . . I think it really disrupts the, frankly, the consensus that the market has right now.” — Lauren Goodwin (34:16)

• Goldilocks economy: The base case for markets is solid, with earnings momentum and fiscal support, barring a surprise in inflation.

• Why not geopolitics? Supply chains, energy production, and other economic fundamentals have shifted, making the market less sensitive to global security events unless they are extremely disruptive.

  “No doubt in my mind this is not about a single administration. ... this is a 15-year post-financial crisis trend, [with] flows starting elsewhere...exacerbated by a pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and all these things that just brought more attention to the fact that supply chains are vulnerable.” — Lauren Goodwin (37:28)

• Market as government constraint: US markets increasingly constrain political decision-making, especially in a K-shaped economy.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the iPhone Quarter:

  “Tim Cook gets to keep his job for now. This is a massive, massive, massive quarter. This is a home run.” — Mark Gurman (02:21)

• On Apple's approach to AI:

  “They have nothing internal. So it's not that they're waiting it out, it's that they need to do it. And so they're partnering with the best partner they can that's going to offer them the best pricing power, which for now is Google.” — Mark Gurman (05:28)

• On supply chain & memory chips:

  “If you’re a very big company, you have leverage with your supply base...it helps to be Apple.” — Ed Ludlow (17:04)

• On Tesla’s evolution:

  “Clearly it’s an Autonomy company. Right. It's Humanoids. It's Robo Taxi. ... You have a long way to get there.” — Tom Narayan (26:18, 27:13)

• On inflation risk:

  “If that data looks a little different than the Fed's dynamic looks different, people's economic forecasts look different. I think it really disrupts the, frankly, the consensus that the market has right now.” — Lauren Goodwin (34:16)

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• [02:21] Mark Gurman on Apple’s Record Quarter
• [03:45] Apple's Supply Chain Mastery
• [05:28] Apple’s Complicated Relationship with AI
• [06:23] China Revenue & The Power of New iPhone Design
• [07:11] Facial Movement AI Acquisition
• [08:43] Key Questions for Apple: AI & Succession
• [12:39] Ed Ludlow on Sales Beating Even the Most Bullish Estimates
• [14:55] Apple’s AI Allays Investors for Now
• [17:04] Apple’s Supply Chain Leverage
• [23:04] Amazon OpenAI Investment Implications
• [25:19] Tom Narayan: Tesla’s Identity as an AI Company
• [27:13] Valuing Tesla as Tech & AI Play
• [34:16] Lauren Goodwin: Inflation is the Biggest Market Risk
• [37:28] The Lasting Effects of Global Geopolitics
• [41:19] Lauren Goodwin: The Market as a Constraint on Politics

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Tone & Style Notes

• The discussion is fast-paced with a mix of financial data, strategic analysis, and real-time wit among hosts and guests.
• The mood is candid, occasionally humorous (“Tim Apple”, “She’s being sarcastic, Tom”), but always energetic and analytic.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive look at Apple’s extraordinary performance, the strategic factors behind it, and the critical unresolved questions about its future, especially in AI and leadership. It contextualizes Apple’s news within broader sector and market movements (Amazon, Tesla), and addresses the bigger economic risks shaping global markets. For listeners, this is a valuable summary of not just a record quarter for Apple, but the current state and direction of Big Tech and the markets they steer.

Transcript

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Is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Well, got to say investors like in this report in the aftermarket stocks still up about 2% here in the post market trade. Hey, let's see what Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Tech Consumer Tech thinks about this. He is Mark Gurman knows everything about this company. Lots of exclusives. This feels pretty good.

[Mark Gurman]

Tim Cook gets to keep his job for now. This is a massive, massive, massive quarter. This is a home run. Their greatest quarter ever by orders of magnitude. It's a gigantic beat on overall revenue. China is back. You have a big beat on the iPhone in particular. $85 billion quarter is just insane. The installed base two and a half billion. The numbers are just beyond excellent. We could ignore the fact they missed on wearables, home and accessories we can ignore the fact they missed on Mac. We can ignore the fact that they be barely, you know, crossed expectations on services. I guess none of that matters when the iPhone is selling so well. Yeah, but still there's the big existential question of what's next. It's an important question because of AI. And Apple absolutely needs to figure out its AI strategy. There needs to be an AI reckoning of some sort there. But they just bought themselves a very long time with this just insanely great quarter.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

So let's talk about a couple of the areas that, that you highlighted there. One is China and another one is the sort of the concerns that people had about memory chips in this quarter and the rising prices of memory chips. How was Apple able to navigate this so it didn't hit its margins like people thought it would?

[Mark Gurman]

They buy components and memory components quarters and months in advance, sometimes years in advance. They have these deals struck. So they're working off of numbers and pricing and materials here that really give them extensive pricing power over competitors. So we'll hear more about that on the call today. But seems like they're fine.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Mark, I love this. I mean, I'm looking at our live blog, so you must have like kicked this out before you jumped on air with us. But you did mention that the significant things on the call, you, you've already talked about the AI strategy succession. You've kind of said maybe that's off the table for now because this was such a blowout quarter. You talk about the long term viability of the business if it doesn't get its AI act. It's hard to even think about that when you see the numbers here and just what a big company this is and how significant is, I feel like in so many different people's lives, like I have an Apple household. I think Tim has an Apple household. Is that, is that really the long term viability if they don't get AI.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

To call me Tim Apple.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

In fact, they do that.

[Mark Gurman]

Yes. I said long term. Right. And talking really, and I'm talking really long.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Okay.

[Mark Gurman]

The little, the little, the really long term here. Right. Like at some point there is going to be a need to fulfill these AI desires and you know, they're going to have to figure that out.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Well, Otto Agron of our BI team, he talked with Tim and I just moments ago and he talked about, you know, how they're working with Google when it comes to AI relying on them right now for their models and so they're not doing the big I spend. That makes sense. For now too. So do you agree that that's kind of a smart strategy now and kind of waiting it out a little bit, but at some point they've got to kind of do their own thing.

[Mark Gurman]

It's not that they're waiting it out, it's that they have no choice. They have nothing internal. So it's not that they're waiting it out, it's that they need to do it. And so they're partnering with the best partner they can that's going to offer them the best pricing power, which for now is Google. They initially wanted to work with Anthropic, but from a pricing standpoint, that didn't work out. They couldn't work with OpenAI because they're, you know, hardcore competitors at this point. So Google is all who was left. And obviously the judge didn't break up the search deal there. So it made sense and aligned pretty nicely for them.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Okay, do we know yet how Apple was able to beat expectations in China once again for the first quarter? The most recent quarter, greater China revenue came in at $25.53 billion. 21.82 was the estimate. You said it minutes ago. It is back in China. You're holding up an iPhone right now. That's what they did.

[Mark Gurman]

I'm answering your question. I'm answering your question.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

It was the iPhone 7 color orange. Oh, it's the color orange. It's that easy.

[Mark Gurman]

Is the Pro Max? No, it's design. People buy the new designs. This is the first new design in half a decade. It got it done. That's why you do new designs, because you're trying to bring in new customers, upgrades. But that's the way to do it.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Didn't they know that?

[Mark Gurman]

Of course they know that. But it takes time to do these new designs and you kind of want to get it right and then you can't do it too often because if you do it too often, it doesn't have the power that it, that it has. If you do it only every so often.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Hey, I want to roll into this a story you've got on the Bloomberg that you put out today. And this has to do with Apple buying the Israeli AI startup that interprets facial movement. Q. AI is this important?

[Mark Gurman]

I think it's going to enable some features for future AirPods, smart glasses and mixed reality headsets and all that. But it's not fundamental to the overall AI strategy, which I think they're still trying to figure out. Also just one piece of the puzzle.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Okay, Mark, another story that you reported on this week, Apple's Tim Cook calls for a de escalation after Alex Preddy's shooting in Minneapolis. There's this thread that Tim Cook is trying to a needle that Tim Cook is trying to thread. He was at the White House on Saturday.

[Mark Gurman]

Do a very good job. Why not needle? Well, I think his statement was kind of worthless in some respects. I think that he spent, I don't know if it's at this statement talking about how the president, the one who's overseeing the policies that led to the situation in Minneapolis, has his ears wide open to listen to feedback. I mean, I'm not sure that's what his employees, who are sort of revolting internally about this, were looking for. I think they were looking for Tim Cook to take some sort of stand here. And he really didn't. You know, from, from his perspective is he's scared to upset Trump and get tariffs and other policies slapped onto Apple's business. So you'll see him continue to do what he's doing because this is not about taking a stand at this point for him. This is about protecting the underlying business. And the results speak for themselves. The underlying business seems pretty well protected. All right.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Like we like to do and you know, we're going to go there. What do you think are the top two questions that's got to be asked on this call?

[Mark Gurman]

They got to ask about AI and they got to ask about succession. I'm sure they're not going to, though. I mean, maybe I. But like they're not going to ask about succession and risk not being invited back next quarter to ask more questions.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Are they going to ask about him being at the White House to see the Melania movie?

[Mark Gurman]

Like I said, they don't want to risk being banned from asking questions next quarter. So no one's going to ask anything. That rocks the boat.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

All right.

[Mark Gurman]

We'll see. I hope I'm wrong.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Okay.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Great stuff as always. And we'll be looking for your reporting after that call as well. He is Mark. Thank you, Mark, managing editor for Global Consumer Tech for Bloomberg News out there out there on the West Coast.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Well, let's bring in Ed Ludlow. He's the co host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg tv. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau. Ed, the story from Mark Gurman is out. Sales trouncing estimates after iPhone fuels record quarter Tim Cook called the demand quote unprecedented. Is this all about the iPhone doing well around the world?

[Hunter Woodhull]

Yeah, all about the iPhone. And in some ways it's like an issue of chronology and timing. Right. Think about when Apple announces the iPhone 17 generation and we're all there in Cupertino for it, and then it goes on sale and you have the holiday quarter. So, you know, actually it goes a little bit beyond that. You know, this is where the Bloomberg terminal comes in useful. So that is a big beat. You can just see it looking at the headline on a dollar basis, but not Only is it 9% above consensus, even the top end of the most bullish ranges on how this iPhone would do were only about $81 billion. I think it came in above $85 billion. So they've done something. Either the phone has got traction or they've done something smart with the timing of it and it sold well. The bit that's missing, of course, is that that commentary does not have anything specific to do with greater China. We know the numbers in greater China are really good, but how did this iPhone do that?

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Yeah, like, is it just, whoa, just a good quarter or was it luck? Or was it really strategy? Right. Of understanding.

[Hunter Woodhull]

I'm super cautious because sometimes we've relied on third party data, like, I won't name it, it would be a bit unfair. But there are various third party data sets that say, oh, no, Apple's doing really badly.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Everyone knows who you're talking about. It's okay, okay.

[Hunter Woodhull]

I'll stick to my guns. And, you know, and then Apple comes around with earnings. And the opposite has been true on more than one occasion. But this occasion, like the third party data, this sort of incremental and anecdotal of people queuing up for the iPhone 17 in all markets. But like greater China, it was kind of there. So. So that's interesting. Where else do you want to go? I mean, you know, this is Apple. There's anything we want to go to AI because. Yes. You want to ask me about the thing that they have nothing to say about? Sure, thanks.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Every analyst is really pointing to that. I mean, we can, we can talk about the relationship that Apple has with, with Google and for Gemini. We could talk about all the money going to open air, potentially from, from Amazon and other companies about a potential $100 billion fundraising round. We could talk about Apple relying on third parties rather than building its own. Is there a risk in doing that?

[Hunter Woodhull]

I go back to basics and, you know, I Kind of rely on Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, who is one of the world's leading journalists when it comes to covering not just Apple, but consumer electronics. And in the context of this earnings print, what he's written is probably true, that Apple has done enough to mask over or allay the concerns that investors have about a lack of progress in AI as a product. You know, the reporting is quite clear and it's been announced now officially, Right. That at least on the interim, Apple's AI generation of Siri will be underpinned. Underpinned by Gemini. And Mark's reported a lot about the financials around that. Right. It's a 1 billion per annum agreement. We don't, we, we don't and we won't get this sort of announcement like here it is, here's the date it's coming and this is what it can do until it's here. You know, that's not how Apple operates.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Yeah, it's just, you know, I mean, it's pretty like, where do you go? Where do you go? You know, here we are looking. I mean, the stock isn't up as much as it was earlier. We were talking about, you know, more than a 2% gain. I think at its highs here in the aftermarket, it's just up about 3/4 of 1 percentage point. What is it that they need to do? Maybe on the call, is it AI? Is it that this is sustainable, this is a strategy, this is, you know, we figured out China, like what is it?

[Hunter Woodhull]

Well, you know, forgive me because I was blogging, I didn't hear what you guys were talking about just before, but in this very limited earnings release and statement, you guys maybe went over the risk factors and forward looking.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Yeah, we talked about that. We talked about that. You know, I talked about how you started pointing that out back in, in May of last year, a middle May.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Of last year, I was sat next to the you2 in New York studio, do you remember? And we were like, oh, that's interesting. They've never said that before, but that.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Was the first report post Liberation Day.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Right. The, the only observation I'll make in line with that is that this release also says nothing about the environment for memory chips. And yeah, you know, like memory chip prices are very high.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

But their margin was pretty good.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Right, and their margins were pretty good. And there's a scarcity. And the principal difference is like this, this is why it's so fun to cover hardware companies and it's a privilege to be a technology journalist when you get access to all these companies and, and speak to the CEOs. If you're a very big company, you have leverage with your supply base. If a supplier has to choose. I've got this number of things and I can only send them here or I can send them there, I can split. It helps to be Apple is what I'm saying. And there are companies that I've covered whose CEOs, you know, will privately just agonize over how difficult it is to convince suppliers to give them the things they need. So on the call that that will come up, you know, the sell side are likely to ask about it.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

But you know, there are, they're high prices and then there's Apple dealing with high prices. And when I asked Mark this question about how they were able to successfully navigate these higher memory prices, he said, well, one, they're Apple and two, they buy so far in advance and they buy the components too that go in. So at a certain point, Ed, it'll hit them, right?

[Tom Narayan]

Well.

[Hunter Woodhull]

It'S not just that memory prices are high. The reason that memory prices are high is that historically memory, DRAM and NAND flash memory is, is a very cyclical up and down business boom and bust. You know, that's what Ian King would say. Boom and bust in King leads our semiconductor coverage right at Bloomberg. And it is correct that Apple supply chain teams are its secret sauce. You know, that was Tim Cook's whole thing. He was CEO, like that's what he was good at. But the reason prices are high is because of scarcity of availability, you know, because there is such demand for equivalent chips that are going to data centers. And so like Mark's answer is appropriate. Apple has leverage and the ability of scale to say like okay, we have got ahead of this. And one would imagine that their supply chain team is sophisticated enough to have foreseen some of the things that we're now experiencing in that market.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

So one, one, the first thing Mark said to us, I don't know, you were blogging Ed, and you were, you were looking at the results, was Tim Cook just bought himself time. Tim Cook gets to keep his job. I mean there's been a lot of questions about succession. Mark says that's one of two questions he would ask on the call. The other would be about I, in your view was, was his job not, not at risk. But you know, there are questions about who leads this company after Tim Cook.

[Hunter Woodhull]

I, I am not Bloomberg's Mark Gurman.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

Norman.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Right. Is that when Mark did that recent reporting and it's been it's been over a period of time about which executives are now more at the forefront of Apple's future. He was crystal clear in that reporting that there is no suggestion that Tim Cook being replaced or stepping down or retiring is imminent. You know, that this was a longer term thing. What I would reflect on is the conversations that I have with people in industry and those that come on the show and talk about it is, you know, Tim Cook is, is the operator that, that many people would want. In an environment like this where we still have trade and tariff considerations, the movement of goods between borders from point A to point B is quite difficult. And as we just talked about, you know like specifically memory pricing, that's within his, you know, his, his range. This is not me speaking, this is how people would relate to me. Mark, when he goes on air and when he writes and again I'm not speaking on his behalf, he would talk a lot more about the product, you know, fresh products, reiterated and renewed products in the product pipeline for the future. And right now I don't know that people are necessarily so worried about that. At least in my world they are worried about when they're going to get the software bit right. With AI.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

You know, it's interesting you say it's something we talked about just briefly with Mark Gurman. It's a story that he put out. Apple buys a Israeli AI startup that interprets facial movements. He's like, you know, interesting will help in terms of I guess product development but not necessarily a big, big deal. But you know, what is the number one question from that they should be getting on the call when it comes to AI.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Yeah. You know, if I had the opportunity to interview Tim Cook and let me be honest about it, I haven't had that opportunity or in any other of Apple executive. You know the big question is in the future what is the form factor by which we interact with artificial intelligence in particular voice based AI assistants. Right. For the most part I use and I don't know about you guys, But I use ChatGPT's voice mode quite a lot on my phone and I use other generative AI tools through my laptops. And because I'm a nerd and because Bloomberg issues me different things, I have my own MacBook and I have a Windows based PC. Right. There are other people that envisage a world where the form factor device, the thing that we interact with is not a phone, it's the glasses per matter. And look at the surprise upside from matters earnings about glasses tripling. You know that's what I'd ask Apple. What do you see in the future about how people use your AI?

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

So Ed, we have time for one more question and we'd be really remiss if we didn't ask you your view on Amazon. This news coming just late in the day, switching gears a little bit still on Amazon in talks to invest $50 billion in open air expand ties. This could be part of a $100 billion funding round which would value OpenAI at more than $800 billion. When we're talking about a funding round of $100 billion, I mean we're talking about just the massive, massive scale. What does it mean that, that Amazon could invest this much money?

[Hunter Woodhull]

Well, Amazon probably can invest that much money. You know, what we've seen is most of the hyperscalers that were wedded to one player have diversified. Anthropic and Microsoft deep in their interaction. Anthropic was very heavily aligned with Amazon. Google and Anthropic are very heavily aligned. Anthropic relies on TPU's. Amazon from a software perspective has tried to accommodate all the players on its bedrock platform which is basically a workplace where you can either train or build on top of existing models. So the financials are there. Like if you have, if people are watching that are investors in those companies, phone me, explain the dilution to me, explain the post and pre money valuation. But Open Air needs capital. It is coming from multiple places apparently. And one would imagine based on the reporting that's been done by Bloomberg and others, this, this is a big large anchor round before a future IPO as well of some parts of the open air entity.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

The scale is just otherworldly. The amounts of money that we're talking about right now.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Yeah. Just blows our mind.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Yeah.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

All right, we get to run. We know you're going to be we know the Apple car call with analysts and investors is coming up in just about four and a half minutes time and we know it'll be on it. And our live blog will be tracking all of it at Ludlow.

[Mark Gurman]

Thank you.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Thank you. Course co host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg TV. Catch it at 11am to noon with Caroline Hyde, another co host. It's always on Bloomberg TV Monday through Friday.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto Auto with the Bloomberg business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

We're talk a bit more about Tesla.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Tom Narayan is lead Equity Analyst, Global Autos at RBC Capital Markets. Tom, good to have you on the program. He joins us from New York. I want to start with, with the sort of the headlines out of the Tesla call yesterday, as somebody who's followed the company for quite a while, were you at all surprised about the Model S and Model X, essentially, in the words of Craig Trudeau being put out to pasture?

[Marsh Representative]

Ouch.

[Tom Narayan]

No, not at all. I think that was pretty much expected. Right. I mean, this company is moving to more towards autonomy. It's more of an AI investment. Right. Robo Taxi Humanoids. Right. The car business is, is, is in the past, really. We've known about this for a while now. Maybe it's the final nail on the. In the coffin, so to speak.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

You said the car business is. Wait, repeat what you said about the car business, because I think people still, even though they don't value the company as a car company, but you know, it's still thought of by many people as a car company. The car business is what, a Tesla?

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah.

[Tom Narayan]

In terms of valuation. Right. It's a $1.4 trillion market cap.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

The most all of new car sales could ever be is something like $2.7 trillion. They sell 2% of all the cars in the world.

[Mark Gurman]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

So mathematically it's not a car company. Right. How do you get to $1.4 trillion of value then?

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

What is it?

[Tom Narayan]

Clearly it's an Autonomy company. Right. It's Humanoids. It's Robo Taxi.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

It's not a private car that you and I buy and drive around.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Oh, that's that.

[Tom Narayan]

You'll never get to $1.4 trillion value.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

That's because those business segments are already contributing so much to the top line.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

She's being sarcastic, Tom. She's being sarcastic.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Look at the FA page on the Bloomberg, you know, where they make money right now, automotive.86 billion in revenue expected in the 2026 year. And then energy generation and storage. That's almost. Yeah, it's a bit more than 17 billion. So that's where they make it. I get what everybody's saying and I feel like Tesla's always been like, well, wait, not what we're doing, but what we're going to be doing. But how long do we have to wait to have it grow into that valuation? That is much more like a tech company.

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah.

[Tom Narayan]

You have a long way to get there. Absolutely. But I think the way to look at this is not the bottom up. Right. How many cars are selling each quarter, etc. But you look top down, what is the market value of robo taxis? It is enormous.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

It's a much more economical and it's a much more efficient mode of transportation and it's going to generate a lot more revenues. Look how much you spend on Ubers relative to what you are willing to spend on owning a private car. And then the humanoid space, which I don't know if that's the right word, humanoid. I think it's better to look at robotics.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Okay.

[Tom Narayan]

So many industries are being upended by this. The tams for both of these are in the multiple trillions of value. All Tesla needs to do is capture small percentages of this to get to its market capitalization that it has today. So I get it, this is far in the future, but I mean, you could say the same thing about a lot of companies, right? Netflix, when it was renting DVDs.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

Not doing that anymore. It's doing something totally different. Amazon, 20 years.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Yeah, no, I think that's a really good looking. I think that's a good corollary. And at a certain point, Netflix stopped sending DVDs by mail. It wasn't that long ago, but before they did that, they made it very difficult to actually, you know, sort of subscribe to that. They wanted to really push people to the digital video on demand, which is obviously the right direction. If you were to do that for Tesla though, then then why even bother selling cars to consumers right now? Why not just focus on creating these fleets of robotaxis and work on autonomy, work on robotics and really go all in there?

[Tom Narayan]

Yeah, I think you can't really have one without the other.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

Remember fsd, the software that powers a robotaxi, especially the unsupervised. It comes from all the millions of miles and data collected from the cars that have FSD or have autopilot, etc. So it's a flywheel. You need to have the data to, to build upon that. And then once you have the robotaxis, there is a theory that that could then go backwards and make people buy more cars. And the subscription for FSD on private cars could be another profit center. So I, while I do agree that in the year 2050, I don't know if selling boxes would wheels is going to be the meaningful driver of value for Tesla. I don't think it will. I think in the evolution of the company, you need this to build the next generations and to get to these autonomy innovations that they're trying to achieve.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

All right. So when does Tesla grow into this valuation? I mean, when does the reality grow like match up with the valuation? I'm looking at a PE. This is just one metric 345. So 345 times current earnings, almost 200 times future earnings. So how long do we. You said it's going to take a long time.

[Lauren Goodwin]

How long?

[Tom Narayan]

So my valuation, Right, I have FSD, I look at it at 2035. Robotaxi, I look at it at 2040. Right. Humanoids, I look at it at 2050 basis and then I discount those back.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Right.

[Tom Narayan]

So you may have to wait a long time to actually see the earnings where it results in a multiple. That's a market multiple. Right. But that's. You could say that about a lot of companies. Right. Again, I think the way to look at it is what do you think about these end markets and these, you know, robo taxis, the market and Humanoids as a market. And what penetration do you think these guys could achieve?

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Yeah.

[Tom Narayan]

Is that captured in where the stock is now? That I think is the way to think about it.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

While the stock right now down about 3.7%, $415 a share. Tom Narayan, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Lead equity Analyst Global Autos over at RBC Capital Markets.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.

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[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem? Business software is expensive. And when you buy software from lots of different companies, it's not only expensive, it gets confusing. Slow to use, hard to integrate. Odoo solves that because all Odoo software is connected on a single affordable platform. Save money without missing out on the features you need. Odoo has no hidden costs and no limit on features or data. Odoo has over 60 apps available for any needs your business might have, all at no additional charge. Everything from websites to sales to inventory to accounting, all linked and talking to each other. Check out Odoo at o d o o dot com. That's o d o o dot com. You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

A lot to get to with Lauren Goodwin. She's an economist. She's chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. So we kind of went through a lot right there, but I want to get to sort of those individually. But before we do that, I just want you to answer for us the biggest risk out there for markets right now that you see and the economy.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Right now, it's if in a couple of weeks we have an inflation report that shows inflation is moving back up. I think that the reason that the market has been able to digest so many big developments and so many questions and uncertainties is because we have contained inflation. If that data looks a little different than the Fed's dynamic looks different, people's economic forecasts look different. I think it really disrupts the, frankly, the consensus that the market has right now.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

She didn't say geopolitics.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

You didn't say geopolitics.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

I thought you would say geopolitics.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

I want you, I want to come back to that, but I want to go Back to what you said about inflation, because Jay Powell, Fed Chair, of course, sounded pretty confident about the mandate, right? The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve and in terms of inflation and in terms of, of the labor market, I mean, pretty confident, don't you think?

[Lauren Goodwin]

I do and I, for what it's worth, I agree with him. Our base case, economic scenario, calls for inflation to stay around where it is, maybe move a little closer to 3%, a little over. That's not a horrifically bad scenario. And that's probably a scenario where you get one or two cuts from the Fed this year and they stay put. That and for markets in the economy, that's really, it's still a Goldilocks backdrop.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Hallelujah. Because I have to say, going through what he said, especially initially, but even throughout, that's what came to mind, Lauren, is Goldilocks like, this is a pretty good spot to be in, right?

[Lauren Goodwin]

It is a good spot. And that's why I think that, I mean, look, geopolitics would be a way more interesting and fun key risk to talk about, but when it comes to what really disrupts the market, we've been talking on the desk constantly that 6 months ago it was impossible to have any sort of certainty or any sort of view. Now it's really difficult to get out of consensus. Most people are expecting a pretty good growth backdrop, a pretty good earnings backdrop, thanks to a Fed that's moderately easing good fiscal policy support out of keep.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Hearing about the tax refunds that everybody's going to get, tax advantages for corporations.

[Lauren Goodwin]

A little bit of dollar weakening, a lot of portfolios or diversification and rebalancing. That's our view too. But it's difficult to break outside of that consensus. And I think the one thing that really disrupts the consensus for us, but for the Fed as well, is if that sort of sanguine idea that we will get a couple of rate cuts and certainly rates wouldn't be moving back the other direction just gets questioned. I think it also, you know, we talk a lot about the short end of the curve with the Fed's policy rate on Fed Day especially, but inflation starts to call into question this, this conversation the Fed is having about independence and really impacts the long end of the curve. Now, so much of not only the affordability question in the US but also risk assets are priced off of the long end. And so that it's a boring answer. But I think that inflation number is just a key to keeping the market as well behaved as it's been.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

So why why aren't geopolitics to you the number one risk? We have an armada according to the president heading to Iran yesterday. These, the president and the Iranians were trading barbs about.

[Mark Gurman]

That.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

I think had some has some people concerned that things could escalate potentially. What we saw in Venezuela, something similar, we've already bombed that country.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Two parts to this answer. The first is that there's no doubt in my mind that the change in the geopolitical backdrop is meaningfully impacting the way we need to think about portfolio construction. No doubt in my mind this is not about a single administration. This is a 15 year post financial crisis trend, the flows right starting elsewhere and it's been exacerbated by a pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine and all these things that just brought more attention to the fact that supply chains are vulnerable and that you might want technology, health care, energy and a couple of other things at home. And that sort of the competition that that's bringing that matters. That's why we are seeing so many countries investing in and really trying to secure commodities in certain other supply chains.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

So when you say those sectors, are you saying diversification here in the US in terms of your exposure, are you saying also diversification outside the U.S. i'm.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Saying that countries and companies are realizing that we had just in time supply chains for those things. And unlike maybe many other goods and services, those are ones that, that you have to have secure access to it, not at home than somewhere else. And so that's impacting the way we think about a global portfolio in a major way. But when I think about individual risks, they certainly matter for the societies in which they happen, for human beings, for the way that we think about the world in general. But when I think about what disrupts the market, if you have US companies printing reasonable profits, then what happens to oil prices when so much energy production has come online in the US doesn't matter nearly the same way that it used to. And so again I'm not saying that it doesn't matter. It wouldn't prompt volatility. But those tend to be shorter lived unless they disrupt that market consensus in the way I was.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

But the only thing I would say is those supply chains, right, they don't move overnight. And we've talked to lots of CEOs that yeah, I mean they are thinking about supply chains around the the world like to where they sell. But some of this build, whether it's manufacturing here in the US right to reduce our exposure overseas. None of this happens overnight.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Oh, that's right. That's why I think it's become more of a part of the base case allocation question for investors and less of a risk. Now one thing I think though that's really interesting about the business business decision that you're bringing up is and I was speaking about this last, last night we had a global roundtable of our investors investment leads talking about some of these sticky issues. And one of the things that we were speaking to was you have a, again a lot of investor consensus around a constructive economic backdrop, investment, etc. But it hinges on, you know, the top very small percent of consumers deciding that they're still going to spend. It hinges on businesses continuing to make the decision that it is worth investing in these areas that are becoming more and more fragile. It's a little bit of a, of a behavioral question question very difficult to answer in the aggregate. And so though I think that that that inflation number is or that inflation dynamic is one of the things that kept the markets the most stable. You could see how over the course of the year worries could build up again. It's not our base case, but I think it's a very reasonable question to raise.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

We are going to be speaking with Josh Green in just a minute. He wrote the Bloomberg businessweek cover story on Gavin Newsom, who we just heard from with our own Brad Smith Stone in a fireside chat. Governor Newsom said during that chat that markets and their negative reactions to some policies have been a check on the president. Do you agree with that? It's not, not and I don't mean it to be a political question. It's just like we have seen just.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

The reality of it.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

The reality that we saw the president, you know, in April said the bond market got yippee. We did see him soften his stance in Davos post a sell off last week, softened his stance toward Greenland. People accused that, accused him then of that of tacoing on that.

[Lauren Goodwin]

I do believe that the market is an incredibly important constraint on not just this administration but frankly any more on the economy. One just to give an example, something that we've been researching really in depth is the concept that you've spoken about a lot of the K shaped economy. You have sort of wealthier consumer spending, the lower income consumers really, really struggling in this environment. And people say well that doesn't really matter for the market. I beg to differ. Not only has it impacted sort of the political backdrop in a meaningful way, but what it's done more importantly to your question is it's brought what happens in the market closer to what happens in the real economy. If we see the 10 year run up and a 10, 15, 15, 20% correction in the S&P 500 relative to wealth for these wealthy spenders two years ago, that's not a big deal. The market's been so constructive. But if they pull back spending from their pockets by 5, 10, 15% as a result, that's a major hit to this economy right now. That's a major change in people's expectations.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

I love you went there because I feel like we all every so many people point well, the market another record. This is great. This is all good. But you we've also done some reporting about how much of the consumer spending is that wealthier group. One last question. Chris Waller, Fed Governor, one of the dissents yesterday, the other one, Stephen Myron, which we expected to be a dissent. Having said that, is that his move in your view, that he really wants to be Fed chair?

[Lauren Goodwin]

You know, I have no idea. But I do think that we're very lucky as a sort of investing populist that right now there is still actually real debate about whether the policy rate should be 1 or 225 basis points.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

So that doesn't say to you that maybe that's a sign of the Fed not being independent?

[Lauren Goodwin]

Not yet. Okay. Not yet.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

That's what I wanted to ask you.

[Lauren Goodwin]

It's such an important question. But we're still in the range where debate is reasonable.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

Yeah, debate's good. We love debate.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, joining us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Here, and I'm Austin Hankwitz. We host the podcast Mind the Business.

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Small Business Success Stories, produced by Ruby.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

Studio in partnership with Intuit QuickBooks.

[Co-host (possibly Caroline Hyde)]

We're back for season four to talk.

[Marsh Representative]

To some incredible small business owners.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

The big thing about working at tech.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Is that it's ever evolving, ever changing.

[Hunter Woodhull]

Everyone's a rookie.

[Lauren Goodwin]

That's how fast the industry is changing.

[Hunter Woodhull]

So what I'm really excited about is.

[Podcast Host / Interviewer]

To be part of that change. So listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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