Apple's Heir Apparent Steps Into the Spotlight

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Apple's Heir Apparent Steps Into the Spotlight
Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Featured Guests: Mark Gurman (Bloomberg), Onur Ant (Bloomberg), JT Bardwa (TD Securities), Sid Phillip (Bloomberg)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into three major themes:

1. The future leadership of Apple as it nears its 50th anniversary, centering on the company’s likely heir apparent to CEO Tim Cook: John Ternus.
2. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and its effects on markets, with specific focus on messaging discrepancies and military strategy.
3. The ripple effects of current geopolitical and aviation news on global markets, including insights into aviation safety and the U.S. dollar.

The tone balances deep-dive analysis with rapid-fire, news-driven reporting, capturing the breadth of issues shaping the global economy right now.

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1. Apple’s Next Chapter: Who Will Succeed Tim Cook?

(Segment begins: 02:07)

Key Discussion Points

• Apple’s “Nice Guy” Heir Apparent:

  • John Ternus, Apple's SVP of Hardware Engineering, is discussed as the clear favorite to succeed Tim Cook, driven by his relative youth (50), longevity at Apple (25 years), and a proven track record across hardware and software launches.
  • Ternus is 15 years younger than Cook and at least 10 years younger than other logical internal contenders.

• Why Ternus?

  • He is described as a “maestro of engineering,” known for empowering his teams and adept at integrating hardware with software—essential as Apple pivots further into AI.
  • Apple’s unique culture and internal promotion philosophy make an outsider CEO extremely unlikely.
  • “Apple is such a unique culture and a unique company that you really can't bring in an outsider. So all signs point to Ternus.” —Mark Gurman (05:05)

• Previous Missteps and Recovery:

  • Ternus’s involvement in controversial products (butterfly keyboard and touch bar) is acknowledged.
  • Gurman clarifies these failures were largely pushed by the design team, and since Ternus became SVP, product quality has improved significantly.
  • “Since he became senior vp, Apple's products have improved dramatically in terms of quality and features.” —Mark Gurman (07:30)

• Tim Cook’s Uncertain Timeline:

  • Cook is not expected to leave imminently; the timeframe ranges from one to five years. If Cook stays longer, Ternus becomes more certain as the successor as other leaders age out.
  • Other rumored successors (e.g., Jeff Williams, Angela Ahrendts) are either retired, departed, or uninterested.

• External Candidates Ruled Out:

  • Apple’s track record with outsider executives is “remarkably bad,” further solidifying Ternus as the only logical candidate.
  • “Apple's run like a family business... They’re going to pass it on to the next member of the family, I think.” —Mark Gurman (09:52)

Notable Quotes

• “He would be a different type of CEO... a maestro of engineering, solving hard problems, bringing devices to market, drumming up new products.” —Mark Gurman (04:10)
• “The hardware picture, at least for now, it does work. But let's see if someone else emerges in the next few years. I don't think that's going to happen.” —Mark Gurman (05:53)
• “If Tim Cook steps down in five years, Ternus will be 55, still giving him 15 years, potentially in the CEO seat.” —Mark Gurman (08:25)

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2. Apple Maps and AI: What’s Next for Apple's Revenue Streams?

(Segment begins: 10:56)

Key Discussion Points

• Advertising Expansion:

  • Apple is introducing search ads into Maps, letting local businesses bid to appear atop relevant queries (i.e., “coffee shop”).
  • Expected to drive significant new revenue, potentially doubling in-app ad revenue.

• WWDC and AI Shift:

  • Apple is set to unveil major AI advances at the next Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), with a revamped Siri and more “chatbot”-like features to compete with industry leaders.
  • “All the features are going to be about AI this year. Everything else is going to be pretty minimal.” —Mark Gurman (12:56)
  • Investors and consumers are eager, but Gurman expresses cautious optimism, emphasizing scale: “If they work to an effective rate of 85%, 90%, that platform of over 2 billion users is going to pull in a lot of people.” (13:18)

Notable Quotes

• “They're going to revamp Siri as a chatbot to compete with ChatGPT and Claude and Gemini and what have you, so all the focus will be on Siri and AI.” —Mark Gurman (12:28)

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3. U.S.–Iran Conflict: Messaging, Strategy, and Market Impact

(Segment begins: 17:07)

Key Discussion Points

• Contradictory Messaging:

  • U.S. President Trump and Iran issue conflicting public statements on war negotiations; U.S. signals progress, while Iran denies talks.
  • “There is a clear emerging pattern in Iranian media today that shows the messaging coming out of Tehran was highly centralized.” —Onur Ant (22:03)

• Impact and Outcomes:

  • Iran’s infrastructure is heavily degraded, yet its leadership may emerge claiming victory if a conclusive peace isn’t reached, helping preserve legitimacy at home and regionally.
  • The U.S. is considering potential troop deployments, which would be interpreted differently depending on their specifics.

Notable Quotes

• “So, on the one hand, you have a country where the infrastructure has been very heavily degraded…on the other hand… will allow it to maintain a sense of legitimacy.” —Onur Ant (23:14)
• “The markets are purely now hinged on the duration and the extent of the conflict.” —JT Bardwa (29:52)

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4. Market & Currency Reactions: Navigating Uncertainty

(Segment begins: 29:30)

Key Discussion Points

• FX and Oil Markets:

  • Currency relationships have been “rewired” since the start of the conflict; oil price expectations reset higher due to lost capacity.
  • Market participants remain split between expecting a quick resolution and fearing longer-term escalation.

• Safe Havens and Scenario Planning:

  • The U.S. dollar maintains some safe-haven status, largely because America is energy-independent and less affected by regional turmoil.
  • Two main scenarios: a ceasefire causing a dollar sell-off, or a wider conflict leading to sustained volatility and risk-off sentiment.
  • Gold, while traditionally a safe haven, is behaving differently this time, partly due to speculative retail flows. FX remains the more reliable market signal.

Notable Quotes

• “In the short run, remain defensive. The dollar should remain tactically bid.” —JT Bardwa (34:31)
• “FX markets to this date have still been the most macro, fundamentally driven market untouched by retail investors or speculative moves as much.” —JT Bardwa (36:04)

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5. Aviation News: Runway Safety and Infrastructure Lessons

(Segment begins: 39:30)

Key Discussion Points

• LaGuardia Runway Incident:
  • Discussion with Bloomberg’s Sid Phillip on the recent runway collision at LaGuardia Airport, the investigation’s status, and questions about air traffic control systems.
  • Emphasis on the imperative for infrastructure modernization and lessons from previous incidents.
  • “There is a lot of antiquated infrastructure in the US … The question is how quickly it happens and whether it addresses these various shortcomings.” —Sid Phillip (43:06)

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

On Apple's Succession:

• “Apple has a remarkably bad track record bringing in executives from the outside. Nearly everyone who they've brought in has been a failure.”
  —Mark Gurman (09:58)

On U.S.–Iran Messaging:

• “[Iran’s] administration sees this war as an existential one, and they do not want to project any sign of weakness to their own public.”
  —Onur Ant (20:09)

On Market Uncertainty:

• “Everyone’s just waiting for signs of that. But it did show a very clear sign that markets are also very happy and willing to fade. The moves you've seen in the last couple of weeks and they're looking for that glimmer of hope and optimism.”
  —JT Bardwa (29:52)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Apple’s Next CEO: Mark Gurman Interview — 02:07–13:37
• U.S.–Iran Conflict: Regional and Global Implications — 17:07–26:11
• Market & Currency Responses: JT Bardwa — 29:30–37:05
• Aviation Incident & Infrastructure: Sid Phillip — 39:30–44:09

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Summary

This episode delivers high-caliber reporting and insight into Apple’s succession race (with John Ternus emerging as the heir apparent), the complex and rapidly shifting dynamics of the US–Iran conflict, the resulting market turbulence, and current issues in aviation safety. The discussions are punctuated by authoritative quotes, smart scenario analysis, and a focus on the human, strategic, and financial impact of world events—a classic Businessweek blend of the immediate and the forward-looking.

Transcript

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[Onur Ant]

podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg Business

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg businessweek Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio

[Carol Massar]

one of the largest market cap companies in the world. Okay, it's about to celebrate its 50th anniversary on April Fool's Day. Okay, and yet, and yet, one of the big questions hanging over it, Tim, is who will take over the reins next?

[Tim Stenovec]

It's something that the current CEO doesn't really like to talk about yet it is today's Bloomberg big take and Mark Gurman highlights Apple's nice guy era parent. For more, let's head to Bloomberg News is L A Bureau and Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech.

[Carol Massar]

Mark, we like big build ups to you. We're just going to tell you we just like to do that.

[Tim Stenovec]

John Ternus it's not a name that a lot of people outside of like the, you know, immediate Apple ecosystem were super familiar with a couple of years ago. But he's been at Apple for 25 years. Why is he in the position, in your view, to be the heir apparent to Tim Cook?

[Mark Gurman]

There are a few main reasons. One, and this is an interesting one, he's 50 years old, which makes him 15 years younger than Tim Cook and at least 10 years younger than the rest of Apple's executive team. People who would be in position to take the CEO role. Tim Cook is not going anywhere imminently. I still think it's going to be at least another year to go before he's no longer CEO. Maybe Tim, two to five years, who knows at this point, right? I mean, everything in his world is Apple. So it's a hard position to move on from. And that means that the rest of the executives who could take over are going to be even older, right? And so you need someone in the role who could take over and be in that position for 10 to 20 years. And that really leaves you only with John Ternus. Aside from that, he's the only person on the executive team who has successfully launched hardware, software, integrated products. He is essentially in charge of their products, which generate 80% of revenue for the company. He's known for his political acumen, he's known for empowering leaders under him at Apple, he's known for getting into the weeds on the technical side. He would be a different type of CEO for Apple, right? Steve Jobs was an innovator, a designer, a product genius, really a visionary. Tim Cook was a visionary when it came to operations and sales and finances. Ternus in his own right is a maestro of engineering, solving hard problems, bringing devices to market, drumming up new products. That's going to be a different type of CEO, but I still think it would be a continuity pick in the sense that he's worked under Tim for a very long time, well north of a decade. He's been a senior VP at Apple for about five years at this point. And he's someone Apple has been pushing to the forefront in its marketing, in its keynotes, meetings with government regulators, meetings with press local in different jurisdictions around the world, different Apple campuses and offices globally. So this is, this is someone who's at the forefront of the CEO race at Apple right now.

[Carol Massar]

You know, Mark so much here at Bloomberg, but we'll talk about when we're going through a different economic or market cycle is that, you know, when it comes to like a Fed chair, we need like the right Fed chairman for the era, like I think about during the great financial crisis during COVID and just so on and so forth, or go all the way back to Volcker when we were dealing with inflation. What is it like as you talk about the youth are being Younger turn us. You talk about continuity being an insider. I mean, is that, is that what really Apple needs? I mean, what does it really need?

[Mark Gurman]

And I guess what Apple needs right now, Apple needs a shake up. Apple needs someone who's more AI centric and the board knows this. You know, in the conversations they're having within the board. The question is, do we really want the continuity pick or do we want sort of someone who's an outlier or an outsider who could shake things up on the AI side? And you know, what you keep coming back to is the fact that Apple is a hardware centric company. They're a hardware platform that all these AI and other services run on top of and you can't really run the AI unless you have the hardware there at the forefront. Right. And so the hardware picture, at least for now, it does work. But let's see if someone else emerges in the next few years. I don't think that's going to happen. Apple is such a unique culture and a unique company that you really can't bring in an outsider. So all signs point to turn this well on.

[Tim Stenovec]

On Turnus, his track record. Mark, one thing that surprised me and I kind of let out this audible yelp in the newsroom when I got to this part of your story, was that the missteps that he's had have been very prominent. I mean, two things that Apple moved away from that were seen as widely seen as mistakes happened under Ternus tenure. Talk about the keyboard. The butterfly keyboard issue and the touch bar.

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, he's not had a good run in the mid 2010s with keyboard related items. You had the butterfly keyboard, which was a disaster and kept breaking for typing. You had the touch bar. Now the thing I'll say about the touch bar and the butterfly keyboard, he was the engineering implementer of these ideas. These were two things that were pushed heavily by the design team at Apple at the time. And so he was really executing on the vision that they pushed him to execute on the design team at Apple's in a different era. They are in lockstep now with the engineering team run by John Ternus because he also oversees the design teams now, both hardware and software. So I think that it's a bit of a different situation right now. Since he became senior vp, Apple's products have improved dramatically in terms of quality and features. I mean, you see the MacBook Airs and the MacBook Pros and the iPhones these days, the durability is just insane, insane. So I do think that you know, that was 10 years ago. Those are notable missteps under his watch when he was running Mac hardware engineering. But certainly there's been a lot of improvement since that time.

[Carol Massar]

So, you know, I want to go back to how you started. You said Tim Cook, it could be next year. It could be two to five years. I mean, if it's longer, it actually gives, you know, Cook some more time to kind of figure out and maybe also continue to kind of guide the strategy of the company. I mean, a lot can happen, you know, in two, three, four, five years. So I'm just wondering how much is, you know, turnis a sure thing.

[Mark Gurman]

Well, the longer that Tim Cook is CEO, the odds go up that Ternus is a sure thing, because everyone else around Tim Cook on the executive team is just going to get older and older, you know, and so that is going to leave Ternis. Like, if Tim Cook steps down in five years, Ternus will be 55, still giving him 15 years, potentially in the CEO seat, maybe longer than that. Everyone else will have aged out. I mean, you have Eddie Q who runs services. He's pushing over 60. Greg Joseliak runs marketing over 60. You have software engineering chief Craig Federighi, who's in his late 50s and has already declared publicly that he shouldn't and does not want to be CEO of Apple. You have a new CFO who's relatively young, around Ternus age. But Apple's not going to make a CFO their CEO. You have a new COO who's about 60, and at this point he's going to be too old to become CEO as well. All of your options are gone. You had people talk about Jeff Williams for many years. He was the coo. They had been putting him in the driver's seat as a successor by giving him more product and design responsibility. But he retired at the end of last year, so he's no longer an option. There was all sorts of speculation about Angela Arentz, you know, six years ago when she was running retail. She's out of the company as of 2019, so she's no longer an option. So basically you're out of options, unless Apple's going to go external, which would be a massive shock.

[Carol Massar]

Well, that's what I was going to ask you. What's the chance that they go external? Or what's the chance that they bring back somebody who. Who left but who also knows the culture?

[Mark Gurman]

Apple has a remarkably bad track record bringing in executives from the outside. Nearly everyone who they've brought in has been a failure. From an outsider's perspective, they had their chief people officer, Carol Surface, who was out in two years. I mentioned Angela Ahrens, the retail chief. She was out in five years. There's some other examples there as well. But it has not worked out pretty for them from an Apple cultural standpoint. And John Ternus having been there for 25 years makes it a lot simpler for him to be in the role. Lots of people at Apple. Oh, the other example I should give by the way, is John Gianandrea who was the AI chief, he came from Google and that was a complete disaster. Right. So the track record on outsiders has been extremely poor, to say the least. Apple's run like a family business. Right. For keeping it in the family. It's run by the family, the same people who've been around for a very long time. And so they're going to pass it on to the the next member of the family, I think.

[Tim Stenovec]

Mark, we don't want to give the entire story away. It is one of most read stories on the Bloomberg terminal. It is today's big take. Everybody should check it out. It's not all you have on the terminal today. A couple of the stories. We wanted to highlight a scoop from you about adding search advertising to Apple Maps in a push to make services even bigger. What is Apple planning on doing to our maps?

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, similar to Google and Yelp, restaurants, brands, stores will be able to bid on search queries. So for example, coffee shop in your area wants to bid on the term coffee. Probably that will cost them a lot of money. But if they're the highest bidder and you search coffee and they're at locale, they'll pop up first as an ad on the search results and that's an ad. So big advertising expansion for Apple. Obviously Apple Maps is extraordinarily visible. They've been pushing ads for years now in the app Store, search ads included. They've been pushing advertising within the Apple News app and the news section in the stocks application. So definitely this is a big lever that they're pulling here to try to generate more revenue. The estimates are they made 8 million from in iOS ads or they're going to across 2026. Putting it in Maps is probably going to double that pretty quickly.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, speaking of pulling a lever, you've got another story, man. I mean he still has time for us.

[Mark Gurman]

What's the other story?

[Carol Massar]

I already forgot what whatever started I come back bid. Yeah, that what's coming up this worldwide developers conference and what get in terms of AI levers.

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, as I reported, I think first, first week of January or second week of January, they're going to revamp Siri as a chat bot to compete with chatbots and Claude and Gemini and what have you. So all the focus will be on Siri and AI.

[Carol Massar]

Is this right that they report on? Oh, yeah. May 1st.

[Mark Gurman]

I think that's an estimate that they, that's an estimate.

[Carol Massar]

Okay. Okay.

[Mark Gurman]

So, so yeah, that time frame is

[Tim Stenovec]

typically, WWC is typically for developers. I mean, that's, that's the whole point of it. You get unveiling of, well, iOS, they

[Mark Gurman]

announced the new OSE, so they'll announce iOS27 and the other new operating systems. And so, yeah, developers get a bunch of new frameworks and tools and consumers get a bunch of new features. But this year is going to be lighter than usual. All the features are going to be about AI this year. Everything else is going to be pretty minimal.

[Carol Massar]

So we're going to like Siri now?

[Mark Gurman]

I have no idea. I mean, I know what the features are going to be, but I couldn't tell you if they're going to work properly or not. And I couldn't tell you if consumers are going to like them. But I think if they work to an effective rate of 85%, 90%, that platform of over 2 billion users is going to pull in a lot of people.

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, before we let you go, Shameless Plug, you and I are doing a live Q and A for Bloomberg subscribers. It's on Thursday, March 26th. It starts at 11am Eastern Time. Mark Gurman, it's an ask you anything of Mark Gurman. You can send him questions ahead of time. You can get in touch with us. Anything, anything, anything people do. We love it. It's a fun time.

[Carol Massar]

All right. Looking forward to it. Hey, Mark, thank you so much as always, our Mark Gurman there.

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[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Carol Massar]

Just looking at our live blog on the US war in Iran. We have President Trump saying that the Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon under joint control with the United States. Iranian media denying negotiations have taken place. We mentioned Brent crude falling back. We mentioned WTI crude falling back as well. And then President Trump suspended threatened strikes on energy infrastructure, citing talks. So this is kind of the latest on our blog. Meantime, maybe we'll dig. We'll ask our next guest about what we have else on the block.

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, we can't leave it there, Carol. Okay, so going to just read from this because Jennifer Welch, if you watch our program, if you listen to our program, you know her well at this point she's chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. She writes that several explanations could account for the contradictory messages from President Trump and Iran over talks to end the war. The most likely explanation is the US Is pursuing Negotiations as the president searches for an off ramp, but exaggerating progress in an attempt to reassure markets.

[Carol Massar]

All right, so that might explain, right, the contradictions that we are seeing. Hey, we wanted to get, we're going to get a view from the White House in just a moment and really the national security aspect from the United States. But right now we want to get a view from the region. We head to Istanbul and to Bloomberg News Middle east and North Africa. Managing editor Onor Ant, he oversees editorial direction and newsroom operations across the region. And so delighted to have him with us on our. Thank you so much. I know it's a little bit later where you are. We are trying to understand exactly kind of what feels like contradictory statements from the White House. The US Versus what's coming out of Iran. Set, set the record straight. What do we know?

[Onur Ant]

Well, we know that US President Donald Trump backed down from his earlier threat to strike Iran's energy sites if Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by the end of his 48 hour deadline, which he started on Saturday evening. So basically in about six or seven hours that deadline would have expired. But earlier today, very early in the morning in the US all of a sudden we have seen that President Trump posting several messages on social media followed by his in person remarks to reporters in the US where he said, unlike what he had said before, that he was talking to Iranian officials and that a deal was possible and therefore he gave Iran a five day reprieve, basically promising not to hit any energy assets in the Islamic Republic until Saturday. Those remarks were followed by repeated claims by Iranian media that said such talks never really happened. Iran, in fact, did not respond to U.S. requests for negotiations. And the fact that Trump backed down from his earlier threats was basically down to the Iranian response in to earlier US And Israeli threats in the region and basically a function of how the war has so far unfolded that those are the sort of two emerging main narratives coming out of the US And Iran over the last few hours.

[Tim Stenovec]

So then how do we, how do we explain the public statements differing from what we know is happening privately and the differences that we're hearing from Iran saying, wait a second, no, we are not having any discussions.

[Onur Ant]

Elections, it's not extremely surprising. Obviously there is this one marginal possibility that everything that's coming out of the mouth of the US President is completely false and a lie. It's plausible, but it's not very likely. What is more likely is the fact that what's happening now is a continuation of what we have seen so far. During the conflict and even before the conflict. Iran and Iran's administration sees this war as an existential one, and they do not want to project any sign of weakness to their own public. So even if there is a back channel negotiation going on with the US which seems to exist judging by all the reporting that we have done over the last few hours, they do not want to portray this as a negotiation between the Islamic State and its adversaries in an existential war. But instead, they would like to portray this as a case where Iran has retaliated so violently and so strongly to previous US and Israeli attacks since the war began about 24 days ago that right now the US is forced to sort of backtrack its earlier threats and steps in the war, putting Iran in this position of power and superiority in the war. So that's where I think the inconsistency is mainly coming from the last few weeks.

[Carol Massar]

I want to ask you, because as you said, I think it's safe to say that many would point out that on both sides you could question the messaging and what is fact, what is maybe a little bit of a, you know, massaging of the message and the same thing out of Iran. How do we trust what we're hearing out of Iran as well?

[JT Bardwa]

Okay.

[Onur Ant]

It's not very easy and we have been very adamant in our efforts to filter out propaganda from the actual messaging. That said today, immediately after Trump's truth social posts that said that he was in talks with the Iranian leadership. We have seen a concerted effort by Iranian state linked media outlets trying to counter that message with the message that I just explained a couple of minutes ago. This is clearly centralized. So yes, we are trying to filter out the propaganda, but there is a clear emerging pattern in Iranian media today that shows the messaging coming out of Tehran was highly centralized and it is a closely choreographed place. We cannot talk about the free media that is free to report on anything it wants.

[Tim Stenovec]

So let's say that we do see an end to the conflict in the coming days. What does Iran look like post this war?

[Onur Ant]

That is a very difficult question to answer, but I will do my best. According to what the US Israeli alliance said, since the beginning of the war on February 28, thousands more than, more likely more than 7,000 targets in Iran have been hit. Now, they have spared the energy assets for most part of the war, but we know that administrative buildings, civilian infrastructure has been heavily targeted. So on the one hand, you have a country where the infrastructure has been very heavily degraded. On the other hand, though, if the war unfolds pretty much in a similar way to how it has so far. And if there is no conclusive peace agreement that would allow Trump and also Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to say that they have managed to take or extract every single concession they wanted to going into this war, it will make Iran look like a victorious, look like the victorious side after this war and therefore will allow it to maintain a sense of legitimacy in the eyes of its own people and also regionally after the war is concluded.

[Carol Massar]

One last thing, just quickly, this is crossing the Bloomberg terminal coming from the New York Times that the Pentagon officials are weighing deployment of air to troops to Iran. And the New York Times citing defense officials on that troop deployment. If we see that, would it be assumed to be seen as an escalation on the part of Iran? And then what would that mean? Maybe in terms of this war, just quickly?

[Onur Ant]

I guess that would depend on where exactly those troops are are going to be landed if that happens. There are we have no we have seen over the last couple of weeks that there are certain areas where the US Thinks it may land its troops, such as the Kharg island, which is a key export terminal for Iran. Such a move would allow the US to maintain leverage that would allow it to force the Iranian government to come to terms on some of the key issues, such as uranium or their ties to proxy forces in the region. So really depends a lot on where those troops might be headed and what the task, the objective of that military operation might be.

[Carol Massar]

Every day it feels like in this war it feels like so many questions right? As stuff comes across and headlines are known on our thank you so much. I know it's later over there and you've had a busy day already, but thank you so much for sticking around and informing our audience at this hour. Onur aunt he is Middle east and North Africa Managing editor at Bloomberg News.

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[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[IBM Representative]

lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions. Resolving 94% of common questions, not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off deep in the work that moves the business. Lets create smarter business.

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[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

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[Carol Massar]

Our Bloomberg team watches in global currency markets, writing early this morning that cross asset relationships that macro traders rely on have been rewired since the US War in Iran started and the old playbook is no longer a guide to currency moves. And Tim, this is all happening as we've seen the dollar backtrack falling sharply after President Trump said he would postpone strikes against Iranian energy targets for five days, something we kicked off this hour talking about. He cited the president that is citing, quote, good and productive talks and ending the war. There's some debate about what exactly is going on and before Trump's president Trump's remarks, the greenback had touched the highest level since December on fears of a possible escalation in the Middle East. Again, based on our conversations, it sounds like that could still happen.

[Tim Stenovec]

We'll see who knows?

[Carol Massar]

We just don't know who knows.

[Tim Stenovec]

I want to bring in JT Bardwa. She's head of strategy at TD Securities. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio. The headlines that that have been happening today, the back and forth, the whiplash that we've seen in markets, how are you making sense of that from an effects perspective?

[JT Bardwa]

First of all, thank you so much for having me back. But I think it's a very clear sign that markets are purely now hinged on the duration and the extent of the conflict. Everyone's just waiting for signs of that. But it did show a very clear sign that markets are also very happy and willing to fade. The moves you've seen in the last couple of weeks and they're looking for that glimmer of hope and optimism. And hopefully the good headlines you've seen come over the, you know, in the morning, hopefully if they get dragged out then potentially you could see maybe outside of the oil market, other asset prices could go back to where they were. Oil markets are potentially the only ones where we see some permanent risk premium will remain embedded. Given some of the energy infrastructure which has been destroyed. Maybe the new baseline for oil prices is not 60 anymore, but closer to 80. But outside of that, asset prices other than that might be able to go back.

[Tim Stenovec]

You said permanent risk premia, I mean,

[JT Bardwa]

a little bit more medium term, not in the sense that it could remain more, but it will likely remain for a few years, especially because some of the energy infrastructure was it'll take time and years to rebuild that. And even if there's a ceasefire, think about it like you cannot do away with the risk of Iran feeling emboldened and then attacking again.

[Carol Massar]

Can we go there? Because I think it's safe to say any of us who remember 9, 11 or just think about the region as a whole and you think about Iran's history with the United States States, it's not been a good one for a long time. And you do wonder, do you leave a country, an entity, a regime that is even angrier at the United States? And I don't know that we can get a read on that yet. I think even the president was talking earlier. Did we overhear him saying something like that? Maybe he and whoever the next leader would be kind of having say in what happens in Iran next So there's just a lot of interesting things going on. But are we wrong to think about, have we created a bigger enemy here and maybe some disconnect too, with the region as a whole beyond Israel, who probably maybe weren't prepared for all of this fallout and destruction?

[JT Bardwa]

The way we're seeing risk scenarios right now, there's only two probable outcomes. One is potentially a continuation of the good headlines you've seen where potentially both sides have some sort of a ceasefire, like come to some terms and agreements on the basis of that and both sides will be able to claim victory from that. That I'm sure the US will say that we have eliminated part of the supreme leaders there. But Iran will also be able to claim victory in a certain sense of both sides get that asset prices come down. In that environment, we actually expect a big good amount of selling pressure on the dollar to resume.

[Carol Massar]

That's one scenario. What's the other one?

[JT Bardwa]

The other one is potentially if the talks do not go well, potentially this becomes a much bigger conflict, potentially bringing in a little bit more of the peers who've kind of currently stayed on the sidelines. You bring in more peers, get them involved and this becomes a very long term strategic battle. Then it's not just short term, but it becomes a much more long term strategic point. And that's where a nuclear chain reaction potentially sets off. Because right now markets have take outside of oil prices and then rates last week, equities and effects have been relatively very well contained. You've not seen the classic risk off even to this state play out. And then that is something that actually plays out and then, you know, it wreaks havoc on the market.

[Tim Stenovec]

Why haven't we seen that classic risk? Why haven't we seen that play out?

[JT Bardwa]

I think it's because of the nature of the, the way the shock started out. I'm sure a lot of people were expecting it to be a quick one and done, like Venezuela. I'm sure even the US Administration was expecting that. And nobody was expecting Iran to retaliate the way they have, or even expecting the kind of military strength that they have showed that nobody knew that they had. That's all of that. So in that environment, even now, people, given that this is a midterm election year, Trump has wanted the Fed to cut interest rates. The inflation price and, you know, prices shooting higher is not good for the administration, both geopolitically. You know, obviously NATO has declined to help. I think that's a very strong sign. So there's weak support both Domestically and globally, which is why people were hoping that potentially this is something which is like Israel, Iran, back in June 2025 where you had a shock to prices, but that lasted only a few weeks and then everything came back down. Right now when I'm speaking to investors are extremely split. There's a good chunk of them still in that baseline and some of them who have moved to that bad case scenario. But given the massive amounts of uncertainty, people are just stuck in the middle and they have not been able to put on active risk behind any of those scenarios.

[Carol Massar]

So where do investors want to go? I mean, we've been watching, you know, the US dollar really, really closely, which we've seen under pressure and then we saw a rally coming off of this war. So I don't know, do you have a long and short or short and long term thought on it and how much conviction do you have on those? Or again, it goes back to these two scenarios.

[JT Bardwa]

In the short run, remain defensive. You know, keep the dollar should remain tactically bid. You know, it's not just because dollar is a safe haven. And there's still a big question as to whether it has been behaving like a safe haven or not. But the nature of the shock allows the dollar to behave like a safe haven because the US is geographically insulated from all of this energy independent, not as driven by tourism or supply chain interlinkages with the Middle east compared to the European Union. So the nature of the shock should allow the dollar to behave like a safe haven tactically. But I'm still not convinced that this dollar bounce should turn into an outright rally. And one very interesting evidence which I'm point out doing that is if you just pull up the dollar chart since the start of the year, look at the dollar sell off which happened when Trump and the US only threatened to invade Greenland, did not even invade it, and when the Fed did the rate check on behalf of the Ministry of Finance in Japan, the dollar sell off you saw in that time was still much stronger than any dollar rally you've seen with this actual conflict in the Middle east in the last three plus. So if all of this, you know, if you get that off ramp to the war in the summer, imagine the amount of dollar selling pressure which will come back with a lot more intensity.

[Carol Massar]

A lot.

[JT Bardwa]

The hedge of America trade will be back with a lot more reasons to justify it.

[Tim Stenovec]

Now, jt, we're, we're going to be speaking on our program at a little after 4 o' clock to Ed Harrison about, about gold but you mentioned the dollar potentially acting as a safe haven. We've seen the opposite from gold over the past few weeks.

[JT Bardwa]

Why is that the door? That's actually very intriguing question and I love to answer it because the dollar, the gold. We do know that retail investors did get very active in participating in that market, particularly in December and January, which was responsible for the massive chunks of move you saw then. Ethics markets to this date have still been the most macro, fundamentally driven market untouched by retail investors or speculative moves as much. That's why FX markets to me have been the most most macro moving markets in all of this, which is I think is a very good sign for me to make sense of when things are moving, when things look too strange,

[Carol Massar]

a better indicator of what's going on.

[JT Bardwa]

Because the move in gold did have retail investor participation. The euphoria, the momentum, the formal trades at some times, but that was never seen in effects.

[Tim Stenovec]

She's saying the smart money goes to fx.

[JT Bardwa]

That's what, well, it is, don't repeat that in front of a gold aisle.

[Carol Massar]

But it's, it's such a massive market. Right. It can tell you so much about the different trades. Such good stuff. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. JT Bardwa, she is head of strategy over at TD securities, joining us right here in studio. Have a good week. Safe week.

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[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

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[IBM Representative]

lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now a Global workforce of 300,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions. Resolving 94% of common questions, not noise proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business.

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stenovec]

I do want to bring that Sid Phillip, chief correspondent for Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. You were, you were moving from studio to studio. So you didn't just full disclosure to everybody. You might not have gotten to hear every single part of this press conference as you were moving between studios. What did you learn new from the Secretary of Transportation?

[Sid Phillip]

So I think the fact that the staffing levels were not quite as bad as we expected. I mean that sort of does sort of show you that there is sort of they have made progress in terms of staffing. At the same time it's like I mean the fact that obviously the NTSB will have to pour over the data and figure out what really went wrong and why the fire truck was allowed across the Runway at a time when the plane was also approaching is obviously that's something we'd really be looking to hear in terms of future steps and future in terms of future changes for this industry. I mean given the fact that aviation is constantly evolving and there's obviously changes. I mean we've seen changes in DCA post that in the crash where military aircraft are now they sort of separated from aircraft coming into dca. And so we will sort of see recommendations from the NTSB and that will only be post the analytics of what really went wrong and why that that fire truck was where it was.

[Carol Massar]

You know there's a thing everybody makes mistakes but you also when you're Dealing with airplanes, runways, limitations and things that have to be very, very carefully regulated. I mean could it just come out to being that there is nothing to really address, it was just a mistake? And I don't know whether, I don't know can you, can we even go there or can we assume that there was something where somebody didn't look and either, you know, calculate the timing of a plane hitting a Runway going 100 miles an hour and how quickly and you know this. Help me understand. We all do make mistakes. You don't want to hear it. For those of us who fly a lot, I don't want to hear about mistakes. But walk us through it.

[Sid Phillip]

I think the, I think the investigation will determine one what when I mean given the fire, the fire truck drivers are, they survived the incident. They will be sort of vital in piecing together what happened. It'll also be imperative to understand whether warning indicators that are automatic on the Runway that did tell you whether the Runway is clear or not were working or not. It'll be, there's loads of systems that also work in tandem with the air traffic controllers and that's all that will all be part of the analysis from the NTSB and part of the investigation. And then we will hear something in terms of what went wrong. Was it human error? Was it some sort of mix up? Was it all sort of, I mean we, we saw, we've seen Runway collisions before. I mean there was the Japan Airlines in Tokyo where we had the Coast Guard plane that entered the Runway mistakenly and got hit by the A350 from Japan Airlines.

[Tim Stenovec]

You know, we, the press conference has ended by the way, and the officials have walked away from the podium at LaGuardia. Sid1:1 and I don't have, I don't have Secretary Duffy's words right in front of me, but there was a, an element to this where he talked about this is, this is not political. That said, we are trying to update and modernize. We don't know if modern equipment made in the US would have had a difference in the outcome in this case. He was clear to say that. But is there a technology upgrade question here based on what we've seen thus far?

[Sid Phillip]

I mean obviously we still do early to figure out what really went wrong. And I mean the FAA has talked about how the info, the equipment at various US airports is outdated. I mean they've mainly talked about it from an airspace perspective in terms of airspace being affected. But then we've also seen incidences like this morning where in Newark they had to stop operations for a couple of hours because there was an elevator that was had smoke and essentially they were not sure if there was a fire or not. So there was a. I mean, essentially there is a lot of antiquated infrastructure in the US And Secretary Duffy's talked about how they're working to upgrade it. I mean, the question is 1 how quickly it happens and 2 whether it addresses these various shortcomings.

[Carol Massar]

Well, listen, like, we really appreciate you walking us through everything that we know so far and obviously as we heard from the Transportation Secretary, it's going to take some time to get all of the specific details. But you do think if you know anything about aviation like the Times, they'll be able to piece this together?

[Sid Phillip]

Exactly.

[Carol Massar]

No doubt about it. And we'll know a little bit more, but we are thinking about all of the people were certainly impacted in the lives that were lost as a result of this. Sid, thank you so much. You bet. Chief Correspondent Global Global Aviation here at Bloomberg News.

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