AWS Outage Recovery Drags On, Apple Hits First Record of 2025

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: AWS Outage Recovery Drags On, Apple Hits First Record of 2025
Date: October 20, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

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Overview

This episode dives into the persistent recovery following a major AWS outage and its implications for the global digital economy, analyzes Apple’s stock hitting its first record high of 2025 amid positive iPhone trends, profiles California Governor Gavin Newsom’s political resurgence, discusses the rebound of Zions Bancorp in regional banking, and explores U.S. industrial policy through the rare earths supply chain featuring United States Antimony Corp.

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Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. AWS Outage: Why It Matters

Guest: Sarah Frier (Bloomberg News Big Tech Team Leader)
Timestamps: [01:50] – [06:12]

• Nature of the Outage:
  AWS, the world’s top cloud provider, suffered an outage due to a database loading issue, causing extensive downstream effects.

  “When a large chunk of the Internet is reliant on one service, there are all these cascading effects… A third of cloud computing services are on Amazon.” — Sarah Frier [02:48]

• Slow Recovery:
  Although Amazon declared the issue fixed, many services continued to experience lagged recovery because errors needed to work through complex systems.

  • A sign of AWS’s growing infrastructural dominance and power, even as markets shrugged off the short-term disruption.

• Systemic Risk:
  Concerns raised about society’s reliance on a small handful of tech giants.

  “It is such a good reminder of how that concentration of power is a threat to things getting done in an economy.” — Sarah Frier [04:14]

• Future Vulnerabilities:
  Potential risks rise as more critical code is written by AI, creating uncertainty about identifying and resolving future issues quickly.

Memorable banter:

“Hope your Netflix works tonight, Carol.”
“It actually came back… we were able to finish binging a certain series.”
— Tim & Carol [05:54–06:09]

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2. Apple Hits First Record of 2025

Guest: Mark Gurman (Managing Editor, Global Consumer Tech, Bloomberg News)
Timestamps: [09:52] – [16:50]

• Stock Rationale & Analyst Upgrades:
  Recent analyst upgrades (Loop Capital) cite strong iPhone demand.

  “We’ve known for several weeks now that the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have been a hit.” — Mark Gurman [10:38]

• Hardware Pipeline & Revenue Growth:
  Apple is planning a foldable iPhone by late 2026–2027, smart home products, and several Siri upgrades; foldables expected at much higher prices.

  “You're going to see phones starting at $2,000 from Apple at the end of next year…” — Mark Gurman [12:53]

• Valuations & Product Diversification:
  Some skepticism remains about high multiples vs. historic averages, but Gurman points to a formidable product lineup and services pipeline.

• Installment Plans and Global Pricing:
  Moves to higher price points will be buffered by carrier subsidies and installment plans.

• Ongoing Dependence on iPhone:
  Despite product diversification, Apple’s fortunes remain closely tied to iPhone sales.

  “The only real cannibalization that we’ve ever seen… in the history of Apple is the iPod, where the iPhone killed the iPod, but nothing has killed the Mac. Nothing’s gonna kill the phone.” — Mark Gurman [16:04]

Memorable Moment:

“They all use my reporting to make their report.”
— Mark Gurman, joking about analysts citing him, [12:34]

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3. Profile: California Governor Gavin Newsom

Guest: Josh Green (Bloomberg Businessweek National Correspondent; author of cover story)
Timestamps: [17:51] – [28:45]

• Political Rebound:
  Recently at political low during wildfires and Trump’s ridicule, Newsom is now leading a ballot initiative potentially creating five new Democratic House districts, crucial for the party’s national prospects.

• National Standing & Presidential Ambitions:
  Successful passage would cement Newsom as a crucial Democratic leader ahead of 2026 midterms and beyond.

• Ballot Initiative:
  Receives mixed public support (polls: ~50% for, ~36% against) and opposition from GOP figures like Schwarzenegger.

• Media & Social Media Strategy:
  Newsom leverages social media—AI-generated memes, all-caps tweets—to confront Trump, gaining national attention and engagement.

  “Newsom turned the governor’s Twitter feed into this kind of mockery of Donald Trump… A ton of Democratic voters are seeing this and engaging.” — Josh Green [26:11]

• Risks:
  Directly mocking the president could backfire if federal help is needed after disasters, but Trump’s combative approach to blue states makes it less clear if it alters practical outcomes.

• Personal History:
  Deep family political roots, celebrity connections, and experience steering through crisis and controversy—e.g., the French Laundry scandal.

  “He said it was like his most boneheaded move he made as governor. And not a lot of people would disagree with that.” — Josh Green [23:10]

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4. Regional Banking: Zions Bancorp Earnings Rebound

Guests: Herman Chan (Bloomberg Intelligence), David George (Senior Research Analyst, Baird)
Timestamps: [29:36] – [40:14]

• Earnings Reaction:
  Zions Bancorp stock rebounds after earnings, quelling fears of broader regional bank credit risk triggered by a prior $50 million charge-off.

• Systemic vs. Idiosyncratic Risk:
  Analysts emphasize that credit issues appear isolated, not systemic across the sector.

  “Outside of the 50 million charge off…there was really no, no credit concerns at all.” — Herman Chan [30:13]
  “I think it was just really a lesson in overreaction and kind of sentiment over weighing the numbers in this particular case.” — David George [33:31]

• Banking Resilience:
  Regulatory changes after the Global Financial Crisis, annual stress tests, and careful credit management practices strengthen the industry's ability to weather asset price corrections.

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5. Rare Earths, Antimony & U.S. Industrial Policy

Guest: Gary Evans (Chairman & CEO, United States Antimony Corp.)
Timestamps: [44:09] – [52:13]

• Stock & Government Support:
  U.S. Antimony shares soar amid speculation of a governmental stake, spurred by their recent $245 million Department of Defense contract.

• Industry Importance:
  Antimony is critical for defense and advanced tech (data centers, fire retardants, electrical insulation).

  “We make fire retardants for roofing materials, which all these data centers require…most electrical cords.” — Gary Evans [47:48]

• Expansion & International Moves:
  Announced acquisition of Australian miner Larvata, which would make U.S. Antimony a global top-5 producer.

• Government Relationship:
  “We talk to [the U.S. federal government] almost every day about different things.” — Gary Evans [50:38]
  Evans remains open but not actively seeking government equity investment, citing strong cash and production expansion capacity.

• Geopolitics:
  Emphasizes U.S.-Australia collaboration to hedge China’s dominance in rare earths and critical minerals.

• Insider Connection:

  “General Jack Keane is on our board. So did that help answer your question?” — Gary Evans, when asked why he believes recent mining deals featured in U.S.–Australia White House talks [50:13]

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Notable Quotes

• On AWS Outage:

  “A third of cloud computing services are on Amazon. So when something is fixed, ... it does take a while for all of those errors to resolve.”
  — Sarah Frier [02:48]

• On Apple Valuation:

  “These are predictions, they're not set in stone and there's really no way to know how the stock is going to go one way or another.”
  — Mark Gurman [10:38]

• On Newsom’s Political Ascent:

  “If this ballot referendum does pass, it will be a real validating credential for Newsom. ... He can go out and say, look, I'm out here, I'm fighting Trump, I'm doing things, I'm helping the Democratic Party.”
  — Josh Green [21:38]

• On U.S. Rare Earth Policy:

  “China has a hundred year plan and we're not part of that plan.”
  — Gary Evans [48:58]

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Segment Timestamps Overview

• AWS Outage: [01:50] – [06:12]
• Apple Update: [09:52] – [16:50]
• Governor Newsom & Election Maneuvering: [17:51] – [28:45]
• Zions Bancorp & Banking Outlook: [29:36] – [40:14]
• Rare Earths & Antimony Policy: [44:09] – [52:13]

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Closing Summary

This episode provides a panoramic look at today’s economic and tech headlines—showing how digital infrastructure hiccups ripple through daily life, why Apple’s relentless innovation continues to shape markets, how political dynamics in California could affect the national balance of power, the ongoing evolution of regional banking, and the strategic importance of industrial independence for critical minerals. The discussion is sharp, data-rich, and full of the candid personality of both hosts and their expert guests.

Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts.

[Commercial Announcer]

Radio News.

[Tim Stenovec]

This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvak on Bloomberg Radio AWS is the world's largest cloud provider. You know this the company saying issues continuing to plague its operations after a widespread outage degraded services for a range of customers, including government agencies, AI companies and financial platforms. Shares the company They've actually traded higher today, up 1.3% right now. We got a great voice on this.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. Sarah Fryer is with us. Let's head to our Bloomberg News bureau in San Francisco. She's Bloomberg News big Tech Team leader. She's also author of no Filter the inside Story of Instagram. Sarah Sara, what exactly happened. And why are there still problems?

[Sarah Fryer]

Well, when a large chunk of the Internet is reliant on one service, there are all these cascading effects, right? They said there was an issue in a database that was loading incorrectly and that just had this domino effect for a large portion of the Internet. A third of cloud computing services are on Amazon. So when something is fixed, and they do say it is fixed now, it does take a while for all of those errors to resolve. That is something that is people will still feel the effects of for a little while. But it's so funny that you said the stock is going up. I mean, this is a moment where you realize how crucial Amazon is in our web infrastructure and our governments and so much about our lives. So it is a sign of their power, if nothing else.

[Tim Stenovec]

But is it also a sign of our reliance on one, two or three really large companies if an outage at a single company can disrupt such a diverse array of services that so many people rely on? I mean, we were kind of joking about Netflix and the Ring Camera, but, you know, government agencies are experiencing outages as a result of this. There are issues with dispatching taxis, for example, in some cities right now as a result of this. What does it say about our reliance on single pieces of technology?

[Sarah Fryer]

My train to work was late this morning. It was like only one track was working. And I was like, oh, is this related to the Amazon outage? Like, I just kind of assumed. I don't think it was. But it is such a good reminder of how that concentration of power is a threat to things getting done in an economy. Remember CrowdStrike last year went out and planes were grounded and, you know, so many things stopped working. That was, that was a huge cost, billions of, of costs to the global economy when that happened. So I think that there is, there's really something to be said for the, the threat of this kind of problem. And it's probably a, a cue to the hackers of the world that this is a vulnerability, right? That's why it's so important for these companies have really fast response, quickly pinpointing the problem when something goes down. One issue that may be in our future, right, as more code is written by AI, when big services like this go down, will the engineers know where the problem is and if it was written by a line of code that they didn't actually write? So I think that that's sort of like when you think about risk to these kinds of outages in the future, you have to think about from the very beginning when you're building the system, how safe is the system as it grows and as more services become dependent on it?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, great. Happy Monday everybody.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hope your Netflix works tonight, Carol.

[Carol Massar]

I hope so. Actually.

[Tim Stenovec]

You got to stop refreshing it from the studio computer. Okay.

[Carol Massar]

It actually came back.

[Tim Stenovec]

Maybe it's blocked at work and that's what it is. You shouldn't be watching it here.

[Carol Massar]

Binging. This was last night. We did get it finally on and we were able to finish binging a certain series.

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, I'm not even going to ask.

[Carol Massar]

Don't ask, don't ask. Sarah Fryer, thank you so much. Bloomberg News Big Tech Team Leader, author of no Filter, the Inside Story of Instagram.

[Tim Stenovec]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Tim Stenovec]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

From one mag seven to another we Apple shares hitting their first record of 2025 after Loop Capital upgraded the stock to buy from hold, becoming the latest firm to cite positive iPhone demand trends. And then Team Tim we heard about Apple's latest generation of iPhones. They seem to be selling well.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, off to a faster start than usual, its most basic model surging in popularity with our Monday Apple roundup. Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech Mark Gurman is with us. He's in the Bloomberg News Louisiana bureau. Mark, I want to start with the stock because it does seem like the optimism that we're seeing with the trade with Apple is giving some momentum to other companies out there, certainly lifting the major indexes. What's your view on Apple hitting its first new record of the year?

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, a couple of things to note. One, this is old news. We've known for several weeks now that the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max have been a hit. We've known for some time now that the base level iPhone is a hit. They made major changes on that consumer model. You have the faster refresh display, the better cameras, the larger screen size, etc, etc. The pro models first redesign in half a decade got that orange color which I happen to like. They're doing very well. Second thing I'll say is I just continue to find it fascinating. I know I've been in this space for, for a decade now in the financial news space that a firm can come out, they could say we predict that the stock price is going to XYZ and then the stock follows, right? Stock goes up. Anyone could just shout out and say I think the price is going to that and see what happens, right? So these are predictions, they're not set in stone and there's really no way to know how the stock is going to go one way or another. We don't know what the different ramifications are of different political policies and what can happen in the world and drop of a dime, right. So it's really a coin flip to know where this stock price is going to go or really the stock price for any company. So that's my take and 2 cents on this.

[Tim Stenovec]

I just think it's worth pointing out because I don't think Mark would do this himself. But oftentimes when Mark does report news that nobody knows, it does move Apple's stock price. It's not just the analysts who do that, but Mark's reporting often does that.

[Carol Massar]

You know I was going to come back at you Mark because you know we do have with this call out from Loop Capital that not everyone is sure that that early momentum for the iPhone justifies Apple's valuation. That's out there. Shares trading at more than 30, 32 times estimated earnings, well above their 10 year average of 22 times. You are not a financial analyst but your reporting does move the share price. But you do know what's coming in terms of products, services, fundamentals.

[Mark Gurman]

They all use my reporting to make their report.

[Tim Stenovec]

There we go. I like it.

[Carol Massar]

What do you say about those that are concerned about valuations? Again, you're not a financial analyst. I'm not asking you to give me a buy, you know, sell or hold or whatever. But you understand kind of what's coming at us from the company. There are drivers out there, right?

[Mark Gurman]

I think I can give you a pretty good idea actually if you should buy, hold or sell. But you know, I won't give that black and white but I will Tell you that the product pipeline that they have is phenomenal. I think the foldable iPhone coming at the end of next year is going to raise ASPs quite significantly. I think you're going from a device right now, a pro model that costs around $1,000. You're going to see phones starting at $2,000 from Apple at the end of next year and I think that's going to do wonders for ASPs and overall revenue. They're going to expand the product portfolio that's sort of that other product segment with the new slate of smart home devices. They're going to compete with ring, their parent company, Amazon. They're going to compete with Google, Ecobee and a bunch of other companies in the smart home space with this new smart home display coming in March. They're going to come out in the following year in 2027 with robotic smart home display. This is actually a very popular product category right now. It's growing and it's becoming increasingly popular, I should say, in China, tabletop robots. So if you're a smart home user or robotics fan, this is something that I think is going to be fairly compelling. You've got a foldable 18 inch iPad in the pipeline for before the end of the decade. You've got multiple different variations of smart glasses. So in terms of hardware, you're going to see a pretty rapid and broad expansion of the hardware lineup. You have the new Siri coming out this spring, then you have another update to Siri coming at the end of next year and then another update to Siri coming the year after. Trying to get something closer to chat. They're looking at a bunch of acquisitions. So, you know, we're on a very solid path in terms of Apple right now.

[Tim Stenovec]

A $2,000.

[Mark Gurman]

I take your bet based on that.

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, okay. So $2,000 iPhone, Mark, I think would make a lot of people balk at just the list price there, that headline price. What does Apple need to do or what do carriers around the world need to do to make that more digestible, to break that up? So people actually spend the money but don't realize they're spending it?

[Mark Gurman]

Yeah, I think that issue has been solved with installment plans from Apple on their credit card in the U.S. i think it's also been solved by the carriers in terms of their trade in promotions. And I think people understand that pricing is going up. One benefit, I should say, with the tariffs is it's given Apple some air cover. Even if they're not being hit by tariffs directly. It's giving them some air cover to do price adjustments. And so I think the general consumer understands that because of tariffs, because of inflation, pricing is going up. And so it gives them some air cover there. And they're not going to be the first at this point. When Apple came out with the $1,000 iPhone 10 in 2017, they really were the first to hit that massive at the time pricing threshold. Now it's sort of whatever. And I think pretty soon the 2000 is going to be pretty whatever also.

[Carol Massar]

You know, we've always talked about Apple and we're always so concerned about how much exposure they have to one big product and that is their phone. Are we still worried?

[Mark Gurman]

Oh, yeah. I mean, at some point the iPhone is going to need to be not replaced.

[Tim Stenovec]

Right.

[Mark Gurman]

By but succeeded. Right. With the iPhone still sticking around. It's kind of like everyone thought the laptop was going to die because of the iPad. And then everyone thought, you know, maybe the Apple watch would cannibalize some things. The only real cannibalization that we've ever seen in the history of Apple, in my viewpoint, is the ipod, where the iPhone killed the ipod, but nothing has killed the Mac. Nothing's gonna kill the phone. You're always gonna have that pocket device. You're going to see fewer people use the laptop because they've got the iPhone. You're gonna maybe see fewer people use the iPhone because you have the smart glasses. But you're still gonna probably want and own and buy all of them.

[Tim Stenovec]

Right?

[Mark Gurman]

And so that's the tricky needle Apple needs to thread. But I don't believe the phone is going away.

[Tim Stenovec]

I miss that iPad. Ipod shuffle, was it parents giving them.

[Carol Massar]

To their kids so that they didn't have to have a phone but they could play around with music or something. I thought I saw some story. I don't know. Tim's looking at me like I'm crazy. Cray cray. Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Together for global consumer tech, Apple now a $3.9 trillion market cap company.

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[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenovec]

Polls show Democrats are more disillusioned than they've been in decades. Fed up with aging, feckless leaders, frustrated by a party adrift and unsure who their next standard bearer should be, but yearning for someone to take on Trump. So. Right. Josh Green and Eliu Kanmasher for Bloomberg businessweek. California governor Gavin Newsom has leaped into the breach. He's on with a podcast, a ballot measure and tweets Governor Newsom is spoiling for a fight with the president.

[Carol Massar]

He is indeed. It is the COVID of the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week out on newsstands now online and on the Bloomberg Terminal. Bloomberg Businessweek national correspondent Josh Green is the lead author of the Profile of the Governor. Josh is also the author of several books, including the number one New York Times bestseller, Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming of the Presidency. He joins us, Josh, from Washington, D.C. josh, great to have you here with us. I mean, Gavin Newsom, he went from one of his lowest political points earlier this year as deadly fires burned in Southern California to now being a potential leader of the Democratic Party. That seems quite a turn. How did this happen and how dark was it for him?

[Josh Green]

Well, yeah, as you guys said in that nice intro, he was our cover story, our cover profile this week. Went out to Sacramento, spent some time with him, talked to him. For a lot of people nationally, I think outside California, the last time they really keyed in and focused on Governor Newsom was back in January during the wildfires. Things were out of control. Trump was the new president was sort of insulting him, tweeting negative things about him. And so, you know, he told us that was really the low point, I think, of his governorship. But what's interesting is that over the last couple of months, partly due to some things that Trump has done, Newsom has reemerged on the national stage as perhaps the most important Democrat right now because he is in the middle of leading a ballot initiative that would create as many as five new Democratic House districts. And Democrats nationally are pretty much without power. They don't control the White House, they don't control either house of Congress, but they're very much hoping to win back the House next November. And so Newsom, by dint of his ability to kind of run the table in California, get this initiative on the ballot, has suddenly become important in preserving Democrats chance to win back some shred of power to confront Donald Trump with next November. And of course, that would vault Newsom himself into even more prominent role as Democrats look for somebody to lead the party in 2028 and out of the Trump era.

[Tim Stenovec]

Does that proposition have widespread support in California right now? I mean, former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has spoken out recently against it. What did you find in your reporting?

[Josh Green]

Yeah, it's not clear that it does. I mean, what's going on? Just, just to kind of clue in viewers is that Trump and Republicans have been very aggressive about deciding to redraw or try and redraw congressional districts in red states across the country as a way of kind of putting their thumb on the scale in midterm elections in a way that would help Republicans withstand what I think most people expect to be an electoral backlash. So the fear for Democrats is that Republicans essentially rewrite the rules and, you know, take control or keep control of the House of Representatives, that they think they ought to be able to win. And so Newsom's value to the party is that he's been able to kind of come in and I think offset if this. If this ballot referendum wins. But it's not clear that it's winning by a lot. The latest poll I've seen has it at about 50% in favor, about 35, 36% opposed, and the rest undecided. So it really could still swing either way. And as you said, there have been prominent Republicans like former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger have come out and said, no, we don't want to do this. We don't want to create these. These Democratic districts. And so we'll see. But I think the expectation among the experts that I've spoken to is that this probably will prevail, and if it does, Democrats nationally, I think, are going to breathe a big sigh of relief.

[Carol Massar]

Josh, we want to dig more into this profile piece of Gavin Newsom, but I just want to. On this referendum, this ballot referendum, how important is it to Newsom specifically? How important is it to really Democrats more broadly, as we all are kind of looking at the upcoming midterms and what it means and what it says about President Trump's administration.

[Josh Green]

Yeah, it's a great question. The answer is it's really important to both of them. I just explained on kind of the national Democratic side why it's important. But for Newsom himself, I think it's especially important because, you know, he is somebody who has long been thought to have presidential ambitions. Democrats are obviously looking for a new leader in 2028. But talking to people around Washington, around the country, in Democratic circles, there could be literally dozens of people running. And so if this ballot referendum does pass, it will be a real validating credential for Newsom. He's one of the rare Democrats right now who is in a position of power. And if he's able to lead his party to victory on this ballot initiative and help Democrats win back the House of representatives in 2026, he can go out and say, look, I'm out here, I'm fighting Trump, I'm doing things, I'm helping the Democratic Party. And that's just not something that a lot of other elected Democrats can say right now.

[Tim Stenovec]

And I do think, stay with us, north business coming up, tension.

[Josh Green]

And Newsom itself, as I mentioned, as we mentioned, it's, unlike in the profile, has spent a lot of time trying to raise his profile online, doing everything from, you know, YouTube to Twitch to Twitter to X to try and raise his visibility. So I think a win on this ballot initiative would really help him in that regard.

[Carol Massar]

I always think about COVID and like, how much he became so prominent and we covered certainly everything he did during COVID and what was going on in the state. But he really became a national figure.

[Tim Stenovec]

It felt like, especially during that visit to the French Laundry, as Josh points out in his piece, which, what did he call that in his podcast? Josh? He quoted in the piece, I think.

[Josh Green]

He said it was like his most boneheaded move he made as governor. And not, not a lot of people would disagree with that. But, you know, he is prone to the occasional scandal. So that's, that's, that's part of the excitement of following. Governor Gavin Newsom does a lot of exciting things, both for good and for bad.

[Tim Stenovec]

So let's talk about that a little bit. As a Californian, I followed Gavin Newsom for decades at this point. One thing that just always surprises me though, is, is where he was and who he was with early on in his political life. I mean, there's the famous photo shoot. Was it any Leibowitz with Kimberly Guilfoyle, his former wife, who is now, you know, she was linked to one of the Trump sons romantically. She's now the ambassador to Greece. What is his political history? You dive in here, there's connections to the Getty family. You really go really far back generations, actually.

[Josh Green]

Yeah, I mean, he's had this fascinating life. You know, his, his, his father and grandfather were kind of big time political fixers in San Francisco, which gave him entree into the kind of wealthy world of San Francisco politics and business. While at the same time his mom, after his parents divorce, was a single mom who worked three jobs. So he kind of really grew up with a foot in both worlds. I think he's always been drawn to the camera as a politician. As you said, there's that famous Vanity Fair cover shoot back when he was married to Kimberly Guilfoyle. You know, he managed to be a very high profile mayor of San Francisco conducting or Allowing gay marriages back before the Supreme Court had allowed that first got him on the national stage. But he's also, you know, good looking, telegenic guy who really wants to have his profile out there and, you know, has a lot of political talent. I think that the challenge for Newsom as governor of California, and we get into this in the piece a little bit, is that there's a lot not to like about California right now at a time when, you know, Americans are more and more concerned with inflation and the high cost of living. California has sky high home prices. It sort of struggles with a lot of things that Americans struggle with generally, whether it's high gas prices, high unemployment, homelessness. So all of these things are subjects that Newsom and businessweek spoke about, talked about, and tried to kind of war game out in the piece whether this is something that he can overcome. And as Newsom himself said too, you know, he's got a real pitch, I think, for Democrats nationally, which is that California is this engine of dynamism, whether it's tech or AI or business, and really conducts itself in a way that I think Newsom would describe as the polar opposite of the way Donald Trump runs the US Economy, with a focus on kind of industrial nostalgia. And looking back, Newsom is very much a California guy, almost seems like a venture capitalist at times, kind of pitching his state. And I think it's going to be interesting to see whether Democratic voters connect with that and decide this is the guy that they want leading them forward.

[Carol Massar]

Josh, do Democratic voters also connect with the way he's begun using social media, kind of playing President Trump at his own game with AI generated content and caps and so on and so forth. You single this out certainly in the story. Does that resonate? Is that what Democrats want?

[Josh Green]

Yeah, I mean, to me, this is the most interesting part of the profile is, you know, a couple months ago, Newsom turned the governor's Twitter feed into this kind of mockery of Donald Trump and the way he comports himself on social media with these all caps, tweets, kind of mocking and insulting him. And, you know, AI generated images of Trump eating McDonald's burgers, kind of stuffing his face. And it was basically kind of meant to get down in the mud with Trump. And it's something that's caused a ton of attention, a ton of engagement. A lot of Democratic voters are seeing this and engaging with this online. I know in my own life, people relatives of mine are not particularly political, would have no reason to be interested in Gavin Newsom for suddenly asking me about him because of his wild social media Persona. So in an attention getting sense, I think it's helped him. Whether or not this helps him, like win votes in purple swing states three years from now, I'm still a little bit skeptical about that. But, you know, partly the race right now, if you're a Democrat, is the race for eyeballs and attention. And there's no question that Newsom is doing that kind of more aggressively and in a more interesting way than any other Democrat on the scene right now.

[Tim Stenovec]

Is it a risk politically for the constituents in California? Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, spoke at Bloomberg screen time earlier this month and she talked about collaborating with President Trump in the wake of the disastrous wildfires. If there is another big natural disaster in California before Gavin Newsom's turn is term is up, does he have to go begging to President Trump and President Trump says, no, you've made a mockery of me?

[Josh Green]

Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. I mean, one of the things we talked about with Newsom in this piece is that he essentially, you know, Trump had kind of written him off back in January before he'd even taken office. He kind of turned on Newsom and Newsom had said, you know, in the past they'd had a good working relationship. Back in the 2018 paradise fires in California, he thought Trump had been pretty helpful. But this time around he wasn't. And Newsom had to kind of force his way into Trump's sphere in orbit in order to get some of the help that California needed. I think it does run a risk when you kind of intentionally mock and insult someone, especially as a Democratic governor. If you need to then turn around and ask that president for help, it could be problematic. On the other hand, Trump as president has pursued a scorched earth policy against just about every Democrat, every blue state and every blue city that I can think of, regardless of whether or not the mayors and governors of those states have insulted him personally and gratuitously the way Governor Newsom has. I'm not sure in the end will make much of a difference, but it'll certainly be something to watch if there is another big national disaster in California that requires federal help.

[Carol Massar]

Fascinating stuff. I wish we had another 15, 20 minutes. Josh, with you. That's always the case. Josh Green, national correspondent, BLOOMBERG BUSINESS this is the COVID story of the issue new issue at Bloomberg Business Week. Find it on newsstands. It is on the bloomberg and up bloomberg.com his profile. So much detail.

[Tim Stenovec]

This is the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30. Just worth repeating. Shares of Zions right now up by about 3.9%. Bouncing around Carol in the after hours, but steadily in the green just after reporting those results.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, it was rallying in today's session ahead of earnings. Keep in mind it lost about 5% for the week overall. But we've seen a two day rally and it looks like the rally might continue into a third day. Let's get to it. Herman Chan follows the regional banks, including Zions Bancorp. He's senior analyst for US Regional banks here at Bloomberg Intelligence and he's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, as you reminded us. I messaged him like, wait a minute, what did they say last week? They talked about the credit losses, right? That's the big number we focus on. So we had that already out there. What else did we get from the quarter that might be of note?

[Tim Stenovec]

The big takeaway is that outside of the 50 million charge off that we.

[Mark Gurman]

Just talked about, there was really no, no credit concerns at all. They only posted 6 million charge offs or about 4 basis points on average. On average loans outside of the issue.

[Tim Stenovec]

That they flagged last week.

[Mark Gurman]

So credit's benign. We're not seeing any cracks within the credit quality and so everything's really good.

[Tim Stenovec]

So your view Idiosyncratic, not systemic. I would say these are one off.

[Mark Gurman]

I was told in radio not to say idiosyncrasy.

[Carol Massar]

Wait, who said that?

[Tim Stenovec]

John Tuckoo did.

[Gary Evans]

John.

[Tim Stenovec]

John gets up so early. He's asleep right now. So that means you can say whatever you want about John Tuckoon.

[Mark Gurman]

So we don't see any idiosyncratic issues.

[Tim Stenovec]

Is it because John doesn't know what idiosyncratic means?

[Mark Gurman]

Maybe just heard.

[Carol Massar]

Did he think you said idiot and he like got upset or something? I don't know. We're talking with Herman Chan of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. I want to bring David George also into this conversation. Senior research analyst at Baird. He joins us from Nashville, Tennessee. Last week he upgraded Zions to outperform from neutral, saying the drop in market cap of the more than $1 billion over that 50 million charge off was excessive. There was that 24 hour period where we're getting a little concerned that it was regional bank scare 2.0. David, come on in. We're here with Herman Chan of our BI Team earnings out. Anything new that came to light for.

[David George]

You here, Carol, good afternoon. The earnings, as Herman kind of noted, the earnings and taking a kind of a cursory look at them, look pretty good. Despite that $50 million charge, they. They earned over $220 million. And their pre provision net revenue, which is kind of a key foundation that we like to think about as it relates to just the earnings power of the banking industry, was better than expected. So the core business momentum at Zions is. Is actually quite good. And I think the market is going to like these numbers. And as Herman mentioned, this does not seem to be a systemic issue. I think these numbers this afternoon corroborated that, and I think it was a huge overreaction in the stock last week and we continue to like it.

[Tim Stenovec]

David, you have a $65 price target on the stock. You have an outperform recommendation. As Carol mentioned, you upgraded it to outperform from neutral just last week. Would you raise your price target based on what you saw today? It seems like you could be doing a victory lap right now.

[Josh Green]

I'm not one.

[David George]

This is too hard of a business, Tim, to spike the ball. So I'm not really in that. I've been doing it too long and have a lot of scars. But the price target thing is something that we constantly evaluate. I don't think I'm allowed to tell you what I'm going to do with it, but just suffice it to say that the quarter is good and we feel pretty good about the fundamentals at Zions and the risk reward trade off and the valuation of Zions last Thursday after the bell, I think it got. I think it was 47 when we upgraded it. It got down, I think, seven and a half times earnings and five times pre provision earnings. And that's about as low as these tend to get absent a really, really nasty recession. So I think it was just really a lesson in overreaction and kind of sentiment over weighing the numbers in this particular case.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, stock was down about 13% on Thursday, October 16, and bouncing back about 16% on Friday and then another 4.6% today. And then we're seeing it up in the aftermarket. You know, Herman, one of the things that we were all talking about is, you know, what does this mean for the regional banking sector? Overall? I'm looking at the sector was down about 1.9% last week overall over concerns about credit, specifically when it comes to the regional banks, it was up about two and a half percent today.

[Tim Stenovec]

Right, right. So We've this is sort of the tail end of earnings for us and last week we had a slew of earnings and outside one issue that was already flagged by fifth, third credit was really strong across the board. We haven't seen really any cracks from non performers criticized loans, those sort of early warning signs.

[Mark Gurman]

So I do think that these one.

[Tim Stenovec]

Off issues are digestible and not really reflective of anything systemic across the board. Yeah, David, come on back in here. I'm curious if you agree with that and maybe we can kind of broaden the conversation too and include private credit, which isn't necessarily in the purview of a lot of analysts because it's, you know exactly what it is, private credit. But I'm curious if you see challenges in private credit affecting regionals.

[David George]

Yeah, so I think that's a two part question. So try and do it one piece at a time. So I think what Herman said is correct. If you just look at the data, I think, and this is pretty much the tail end of earnings season, the capital one comes after the bell tomorrow night. But I think 75% of the banks we cover had lower levels of non performing loans sequentially. And just from a cyclical perspective we're pretty much close to an all time low as it relates to problem loans. So on private credit we could have an entire show on that. From my perspective, the growth in private credit is very notable in the banking industry. Any time in my experience in the last 25 years when you have outsized growth is when you can have problems. And this is an asset class that has not been through a sustained recession. So my concern as it relates to the banks and private credit is really an indirect, I guess said differently. If we experience problems in the private credit market, my concern would, would be that liquidity starts to dry up and there's kind of some knock on effects of just liquidity coming out of the system having an indirect impact potentially on just corporate borrowers broadly. It's not something that I think there would be meaningful direct exposure, but it's just a situation where when liquidity slows that will have an impact on the borrowers within the private credit universe. And to the extent they have issues they could have customers that are in the traditional bank market. So it's a, it's an indirect impact, something that we're clearly very vigilant on. Tim, as it relates to just thinking about credit risk and so forth. But I think it's an indirect risk rather than a direct one.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hi David, this is Herman Chan. Just a Quick question for you. In terms of how you, when you talk to management teams, how do you get comfortable with their underwriting, their, their monitoring of their credits, their due diligence? It seems like the overarching thread for Tricolor and the Canter loans is that a lot of these assets were pledged to different places at the same time. So love to get your thoughts on that.

[David George]

Yeah, it's an excellent question. I think ultimately bank investors are making qualitative assessments, Herman, on bank management teams ability to assess credit risk, interest rate risk and allocate capital. And these are obviously levered companies, much less levered than they used to be. But I think the annual CCAR and stress testing process has made this industry much better with respect to just understanding where the risks come from in terms of exposures and being able to quantify exposures to different industry levels and loan to values and collateral coverage and so forth. So I think it's like if you go to the doctor once a year and you know that you're going to have a very rigorous exam, I just think that the behavior coming out of that has really changed. And I think the biggest evidence of that emanates from the fact that bank loans are only really growing at 2 to 3%. So it's hard for me to see when, when market participants worry about bubbles on bank balance sheets, the growth isn't in there. Just to suggest where that bubble would come from as it relates to bank loan exposure directly.

[Carol Massar]

Well, just to follow on that, like I do wonder about all the money that's been sloshing around post pandemic. You know, we just have a massive, you know, bill that was spent that was passed by Congress too that there's going to be more money coming into the system. But there has been a fair amount of money. Are we silly to think that there's going to be some kind of bubble and that there is going to be some financial and bank exposure to it?

[David George]

No, I don't think at all. I think it's just important to everything. Every question like this Carol, is just, is very contextual and it all depends on the context of where stocks are trading, what is priced into them, what isn't priced into them. And I think it's fair to say that, that at their, that asset prices are elevated both private and public. And if there is any semblance or any, any mean reversion or a 20 to 40% haircut in asset prices that is going to leave a mark on the banking industry. Absolutely. But it's one of those things that it's going to take time. And banks benefit from time in the form of just these quarterly pre provision earnings that I mentioned. That is essentially the lever that this industry has to pay for credit issues. And rest assured, these companies are very vigilant as it relates to credit risk. They've got very extensive risk and credit department functions. That's all they do every day is think about where their risks are and where their losses could be. And you know, as it relates to Zions 12 basis points of losses, that means that they're right 99.9% of the time. And I think that the industry deserves some credit, pardon the pun, for how well they've managed credit risk since the gfc.

[Carol Massar]

All right, can leave it on that note guys. Thank you so much gentlemen. So appreciate that. David George, senior research analyst over at Baird and of course our own Herman Chan who covers the regional banking sector. He's senior analyst for US Regional banks here at our Bloomberg Intelligence team. Zions up about 2.6% here in the aftermarket after reporting its latest quarterly update.

[Tim Stenovec]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Tim Stenovec]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

Check out we heard Alexis talking about this rare earth and critical mineral stocks. They have certainly been on the move rising as William Blair analyst Neil Dingman initiates the companies as outperform as he sees the government potentially taking a stake in them. Among the stocks name United States Antimony with William Blair's analysts seeing the US government taking a a notable stake in the company as the US's only antimony producer. Shares of US Antimony, by the way, are up nearly 565% year to date. Yes, you heard that right with about 14% of the flow chart. We're seeing these stocks on the move today.

[Tim Stenovec]

Back with us once again for the first time since August is Gary Evans, chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corp. More than $1.6 billion market cap Mining Milling Co. Refines and sells antimony products. He joins us from, from the Bloomberg News Dallas bureau. So the analyst at William Blair out saying that the US Government could take a notable stake in the company, is the only US Antimony producer. Gary, do you see the US Government taking a stake in the company?

[Gary Evans]

Well, it's something we don't, you know, stay up at night worried about. We've been very fortunate in that the US Government has given us an incredible contract. This is the DLA was the Defense Logistics Division of the Department of Defense. We won a $245 million sole source contract about a month ago. And so we're working hard to fulfill that contract. And what that is is antimony ingots that's used for our defense to hold in stockpile for future wars.

[Tim Stenovec]

So could, can you fulfill that with the, with the capital structure that you have right now? Do you need more money in order to fulfill this?

[Gary Evans]

No, fortunately we've raised over the last month, month and a half, about $100 million of capital. So we're sitting on a lot of cash. We have no debt and we are actually, we actually have revenues, cash flow, EBITDA and net income, which is unusual for a small mining company. We did announce though, on Sunday, yesterday of our attempted takeover of a company in Australia which is a large antimony as well as gold producing Larvado resources. Some new mines starting. Exactly. So that's what that does for us is it adds additional value. In fact, with our reserves and Larvato reserves, we'd be in the top five of the world, which is something I think both the Australian government and the US Government really would like to see.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

And I just want to dig a little bit deeper. What kind of tonnage of antimony would this be in terms of this deal that you're making with Lovato?

[Gary Evans]

Well, you got to understand Lovatta is just a miner. They do not do the refining end, which is what we do. So we have a smelter in Thompson Falls, Montana. We have one in Madero, Mexico. So what we are, the one in Montana is being expanded significantly five times greater than what we currently produce. That expansion will be done in our first week of January. The smelter in Mexico, we could expand that probably five to six times as well. So what this resource that Larvata has, we can bring to our smelters and make a finished product not only for the government, but we make products for seven other customers. People don't realize that antimony is used in many, many different things, especially with the new AI technology going on. We make fire retardants for roofing materials, which all these data centers require. And then we make typically most electrical cords to keep them from catching fire.

[Carol Massar]

Wait, so, okay, so it sounds, like, important, and I'm just curious how much you guys are paying. Can you share anything in terms of this company that you're buying? How much?

[Gary Evans]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So we did make an offer. It's a. We already own 10% of the company. So over the last 30 days, we've been quietly acquiring shares. It's not a company we've been looking at for nine, 10 months. And we wanted to wait till the appropriate time. So we bought stock, we own 10%. We announced that we're required by the Australian government to do so. And then we made an offer to the management of the company. And the offer is basically, we will give them six shares for every 100 shares of their stock. So. So you looked at the valuation. It's a 400 plus million dollar transaction.

[Carol Massar]

Okay, good to know. I want to go back though, to what Tim asked you, Gary, initially about William Blair's call. I mean, are you guys talking with the US Government about them taking a notable stake in your company? Are you working on a deal? Is there anything going on right now?

[Gary Evans]

Well, obviously, those type of discussions I can't really talk about. I will tell you, we've been working with the DOD on a grant. We've talked about that publicly. We're hopefully at the final stages of that. And I mentioned already the contract. So the timing of the transaction with Larva couldn't be better. Obviously, the Prime Minister of Australia was meeting with President. President Trump today in the White House, and I'm pretty certain this deal was discussed. So anyway, I think that what we've got to do as Americans is realize that China has a hundred year plan and we're not part of that plan. And we, as the largest antimony producer in the United States, want to build those reserves and resources and not be dependent upon a country that is not doing things at our best interest. So it's not only antimony, we're involved in tungsten, we're involved in cobalt, as other rare earth companies are also moving to the space. So we're trying to step it up and we Think a collaboration between the United States and Australia is a great way to do it.

[Tim Stenovec]

You just said that you're pretty sure this was discussed between the two leaders today. How are you so sure that was discussed?

[Gary Evans]

General Jack Keane is on our board. So. So did that help answer your question?

[Tim Stenovec]

It does. Thank you.

[Carol Massar]

Okay.

[Tim Stenovec]

I know Carol had another.

[Carol Massar]

They call you. Did they call you to talk even a little bit further about the possibility of this?

[Gary Evans]

No, no, no, no. But do you want. If you look at what the discussions were about, it was about critical minerals, is about rare earths and a collaboration, and this is obviously what we're doing.

[Carol Massar]

Do you want the United States to take a position in your company?

[Gary Evans]

Not necessarily. We've. We've. Access to capital is not an issue for United States Antimony. We want to do what's best for our shareholders and what's best for the country right now. We think that we can accomplish those goals as an independent company without shareholder ownership. If the government comes to me and says, hey, we definitely want an ownership position, then that's a different story. You know, I'm not really in a position to talk about that at this point, but you can see the close alignment between the United States Antimony and the US Federal government, and it continues to strengthen. We talk to them almost every day about different things.

[Carol Massar]

But do you feel like you need a US Investment to maybe. You know, I just feel like. Do the companies that get US Investments in the mineral space, if you will, have an advantage over those that don't?

[Gary Evans]

I'm not sure what the investment does as an advantage. If you need capital, that's one thing. We don't need capital. We have plenty of access to capital. As you noted when we first came on the air, we've had a tremendous run in our stock, and it's because we have access to antimony. We started mining our first antimony mine in Montana last week. Brought seven loads of trucks down the mountain. So we are actively mining. We're the first fully integrated antimony company in the world outside of China, and we're happy about that. We think Larva will definitely add to that equation.

[Carol Massar]

Got to say, we never have enough time with you. This space is certainly on fire. Gary Evans, chairman CEO of United States Antimony Corporation. Stock is up 15% in today's session. This is Bloomberg.

[Tim Stenovec]

This is the Bloomberg Business Business Week daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Foreign.

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