"Big Short" Legend Danny Moses on Dimon, Private Credit, Prediction Markets

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek: “Big Short” Legend Danny Moses on Dimon, Private Credit, and Prediction Markets

Date: March 3, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Danny Moses (Founder, Moses Ventures; known from The Big Short), with reporter Alexandra Semenova

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the state of private credit, the evolving risks in today’s financial markets, the impact of AI and labor market shifts, and the emergence of prediction markets as both an investing tool and indicator. Danny Moses, famed for his role in the events chronicled by “The Big Short,” candidly shares his views on systemic risk, parallels with past financial crises, what retail investors should (and shouldn’t) do, and why he’s bullish on gold. The discussion is informed, contrarian, fast-paced, and sprinkled with memorable soundbites.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Jamie Dimon's Views and Current Market Optimism

• Context: Jamie Dimon’s recent interview suggests the U.S. economy is currently solid, but he warns of “more exuberance than there should be.” (02:20)
• Danny’s Take: Surprised by Dimon’s optimism, Moses notes that “the stock market has added such a wealth effect to the economy that... a selloff could be what slows the economy.” (03:56)

2. Private Credit’s Perils: Echoes of the Subprime Crisis

• Systemic vs. Non-Systemic: Moses underlines that private credit isn’t “systemic” yet, but sees troubling similarities to pre-2008. Banks now supply credit to private equity the same way they enabled subprime mortgage lenders before the crash (04:28).
• Cycle Anatomy:
  • Banks lend to PE/private credit firms as they did to mortgage originators.
  • Wall Street packages/sells the resulting assets/securities.
  • If credit quality sours, liquidity dries up, and “the real marks start happening when liquidity dries up and it exposes the leverage.” (04:58)
  • “No good asset goes unlevered.” (05:28)
• Retail Red Flag: Major concern as private credit is now being offered to retail investors. “When retail investors get the opportunity all of a sudden to buy something... caveat.” (07:45)

3. What Could Cause a Market Correction?

• Employment Is Key: Moses sees possible job losses and rising unemployment as a greater threat than most current macro factors (05:42).
  • “If employment rolls over, people stop contributing monthly into 401k. That would be where I see the most momentum lost.” (24:56)
• White Collar Cuts: Points to major firings (e.g., Block/Jack Dorsey) and a secular trend toward labor reduction, framed as “margin expansion” induced by AI (06:45, 16:19).

4. AI, Labor Market Disruption, and the Citrini Memo

• AI Efficiency: Moses says CEOs “have shareholders. Your job is for margin expansion and to produce earnings. If you see the opportunity to do it, it’s not a non for profit. You’re going to do it.” (16:19)
• Generational Shift: The embrace of AI will create a “dislocation” between younger and older workers; “education's maybe going to have to shift around a little bit...” (17:26-18:24)
• Not All Doom: “The US consumer finds a way to make jobs around it.” AI will generate new support industries (18:24).

5. Prediction Markets: From Entertainment to Institutional Research

• Utility: Moses uses prediction markets to track real-world sentiment and gauge news impact, e.g., elections in Brazil or major bets on U.S. debt—“I actually use them as a way to follow the news.” (08:56)
• Trading for Fun & Insight: “I trade on Kalshi... not a ton but enough that it’s entertaining.” (10:42, 11:16)
• Institutions Adopting: Big names like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan now cite prediction markets in research. (09:23)

6. How Should Retail Investors Approach This Environment?

• Avoid Retail Private Credit: “If I were a retail investor... I’d be buying Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo.” (08:05)
• Stay Liquid: “These firms, you can sell and buy easily.” (08:32)
• Steer Clear: “If I had a retail broker that called me and offered me [private credit products], I don’t think he'd be my broker anymore.” (08:27)

7. On Bailouts and Moral Hazard

• Fed and Markets: Moses argues the Fed’s repeated bailouts have reinforced risky behavior. He half-jokes about a future government program to bail out private credit—“We ran out of acronyms. Right. So we’re going to come up with another one.” (11:42)
• Moral Hazard: “It's in the back of people's minds... If private credit goes, the Fed's going to have no choice but to bail it out. And they're probably right.” (11:42)

8. Inflation, the Fed, and Debt Worries

• On Policy: Moses fears that “if the Fed starts cutting in the face of inflation, what that would look like.” (13:06)
• U.S. Debt: Deep concern about U.S. debt trajectory—“All we did from 2008 on was just move the risk to the government balance sheet. But you’re not going to outgrow it.” (23:47)
• Prediction Market Application: “If [U.S. debt] hits $50 trillion… we have a lot bigger issues. So when I see stuff like that, and it’s trading at 50 cents... if it starts to move, then I start to dig deeper.” (10:19)

9. Sector Views: Gold, Energy, and Commodities

• Gold Bull: “Everyone’s on gold. But... I’m still on gold, gold long, the gold miners. I think it’s a trade.” (20:52)
• Central Banks & Gold: “It’s really a play that central banks are incompetent to a degree, and they’re going to do whatever they need to do.” (21:01)
• Metals Participation: “Silver specifically. I think every metals market’s a little bit different. I think the commodity trade is here to stay.” (21:47)
• Energy: Points out that energy stocks have value overlooked in the AI craze (20:09).

10. Geopolitics and Market Reactions

• Markets Absorbing Shocks: Surprised that U.S. markets absorbed recent geopolitical tension smoothly while overseas markets did not. “I think a lot of this was priced in... it’s more of a buy on the news type of event.” (22:27)
• Dollar as Safe Haven: U.S. dollar “rebounds” in crises, but Moses thinks such moves are “short lived” (22:27).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On systemic risk and leverage:
  “Whenever liquidity dries up in any asset class, [it] exposes the leverage. So no good asset goes unlevered.”
  —Danny Moses [05:28]

• On private credit being offered to retail:
  “If I had a retail broker that called me and offered me that, I don't think he'd be my broker anymore.”
  —Danny Moses [08:27]

• On prediction markets:
  “I actually use them as a way to follow the news... you don't have to trade those markets, but you need to watch it.”
  —Danny Moses [08:56]

• On bailouts:
  “All we did from 2008 on was just move the risk to the government balance sheet. But you're not going to outgrow it.”
  —Danny Moses [23:47]

• On gold:
  “[Gold is] really a play that central banks are incompetent to a degree, and they're going to do whatever they need to do.”
  —Danny Moses [21:01]

• On U.S. debt crisis:
  “I'm very concerned about US debt and debt to GDP. That's my big... It matters because one misstep here... When you start to issue more T bills instead of 10 year notes, right. When you start to do those things, you by definition create refinancing and repricing risk down the road.”
  —Danny Moses [23:42-23:47]

• On market psychology:
  “I think it's self-fulfilling... even through the tariff crisis last year, ETF flows remain positive... That comes down to one thing, employment.”
  —Danny Moses [24:56]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Setting the Stage, Dimon’s Take – 02:20–03:50
• Private Credit’s Dangers – 04:28–07:44
• Retail Access/Advice – 08:05–08:32
• Prediction Markets – 08:40–11:19
• Fed Bailout/Moral Hazard – 11:25–12:34
• AI, Labor, and Citrini Memo – 16:19–18:52
• Sector Fears and Trading Opportunities – 19:38–21:44
• Geopolitics and USD as Haven – 22:01–23:47
• Debt Concerns, Closing Thought – 23:41–25:12
• Retail “Buy the Dip” & Risks – 24:46–25:12

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Summary Table: Actionable/Contrarian POVs from Danny Moses

| Theme | Danny’s Position | Notable Quote (Timestamp) | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | Private Credit for Retail | Avoid, instead buy PE parent companies | 08:05–08:27 | | Risk of Crisis | Still lurking via leverage & liquidity, not banks | 04:28–05:28 | | Market Correction Trigger | Watch employment, not just macro data | 05:42–06:45 | | Prediction Markets | Useful for “market color” and sentiment | 08:56–09:23 | | Gold/Metals | Bullish, central bank incompetence thesis | 20:52–21:01 | | Fed’s Moral Hazard | Real and growing | 11:42–12:17 |

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Closing

Danny Moses leaves listeners with a blend of skepticism for financial innovation marketed to retail, wariness of systemic risks sidelined in a speculative boom, and a pragmatic approach for retail investors: stay liquid, watch employment, and don’t forget about gold. The episode is a rapid-fire tour of financial fault lines, blending historical analogy with current market nuance, and Danny’s signature candor.

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Transcript

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[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.

[Tim Stankevicius]

You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvak on Bloomberg Radio. We should note Jamie Dimon that interview with Lisa Abramowitz covering a lot of ground. Some headlines include that right now the US Economy is doing fine. But at the same time and this came, you know, before he made some comments about AI, he said there's more Exuberance than there should be.

[Alexandra Semenova]

He did.

[Carol Massar]

He did. He did also note when it comes to private credit, he said not in the systemic area yet that we are late in the credit cycle in general. So that reminds us of some recent reporting by our own Bloomberg team. It was about money manager Danny Moses. You know the Danny Moses immortalized in the Big Short, who made some comments, probably lives with you forever.

[Tim Stankevicius]

He's here.

[Danny Moses]

He's here.

[Carol Massar]

He's here. He's here. He made some comments last week during panel at the Iconnections Global Alts conference. It was in Miami Beach, Florida. What he said was that private credit and private equity firms push into retail products. Reminds him of the years preceding the subprime mortgage crisis. So we are kind of hearing a chorus akin to reminding us all about the GFC and what happened. Danny Moses is founder of Moses Ventures. He joins us right now here in studio along with Bloomberg News equities reporter Alexandra Semenova. Danny also host of the weekly podcast on the tape and co authors the substack what are we doing? Contrarians at the gate with his fellow Big Short partners. So delighted to have you here with us. How are you?

[Danny Moses]

Great to be. Who knew what I would say one thing in Miami that I'm sitting here four days later. So it's always great to follow the King. Jamie Dimon. So great. Let's, let's, let's go.

[Carol Massar]

Well, anything that King said that you thought was kind of interesting because he did talk about private credit, which is something that's definitely on your radar.

[Danny Moses]

He sounded much more positive than I thought he would. He's optimistic. He's down at a leveraged finance conference. So I think he probably needs to be. I think you focus on the right things. You can't predict when we're going to have a downturn, but what might cause it. I'm in the camp that actually the stock market has added such a wealth effect to the economy that it actually could be the stock market selling off that actually slows the economy. So they're all kind of intermixed here. And the stuff we can talk about, what I said down there about private credit, how I think it rhymes with previous cycles, but every cycle is different.

[Tim Stankevicius]

So let's, let's go there and talk a little bit about how it rhymes with previous cycles. Where does it rhyme specifically what concerns you.

[Danny Moses]

So the whole thing about this cycle is that it's not systemic. We don't have the risk. The banks aren't there so we don't have to worry about depositors being at risk. The similarities are that the banks are lending to the private equity and private capital firms. Right? That's going on. They did the same thing to the mortgage companies in 2004, 5 and 6, leading up to the crisis. What did they do? They provided warehouse lines to New Century or credit home lenders Countrywide. So they went out, produced the mortgages. What did Wall street do? They bought those mortgages, packaged them and sent them out to CEOs, and everyone bought them.

[Carol Massar]

Great cycle, right?

[Danny Moses]

Same cycle. The same institutions that are now buying, you know, all this credit. And so as soon as Wall street sees credit turn a little bit, what they'll do is the credit lines that they're now providing into that sector, they'll tweak it a little bit, they'll pull some back. Then what happens, you get left. The reason these mortgage companies went out of business was because they couldn't sell it anymore and it got stuck on their balance sheet, chair got pulled. So then the real marks start happening when liquidity starts to dry up and it exposes the leverage. So whenever liquidity dries up in any asset class, exposed leverage and no good asset goes unlevered is basically how it goes.

[Alexandra Semenova]

So it's been incredible, Danny, to see that stocks haven't been toppled by anything that has happened this year. We have so much geopolitical risk, we have AI concerns, private credit. What is going to be the headwind that actually sends us into a correction or worse?

[Danny Moses]

I think it's employment, unemployment. So earnings. Earnings have been strong enough, I think, to carry the market. I think we've had a broadening out within the market, which has been healthy, and other sectors other than tech, which is. Which is great. But I think you're starting to see trends potentially in employment. Now. This memo that came out last week that you guys were talking about all week, this Trini memo about what I could look like in 2020, the apocalypse, so to speak. There's some truth to it. And you have to imagine what can happen. So you get all the benefits of being efficient as a company and your margins improve. So you get that now. But we saw already from Block and what was said, you know, firing, you know, 40% of their staff. You know, one note, literally took pages, it felt like out of the memo and said, this is what we think we can do now, be more efficient. So those are white collar jobs and so that's in the economy.

[Carol Massar]

Well, to be fair, I think we're all trying to figure out, is that a Jack Dorsey figuring out the future of that company. Right. In terms of management and whether or not that is an indicator of what's to come.

[Tim Stankevicius]

And there are a lot of people who say that's, you know, not something that it's, you know, reduction in force that's sort of camouflaged as an AI. Like this is bloating. We're going to be speaking about this a little later.

[Danny Moses]

I mean, I mean, he's certainly overhired, probably pandemic. But what he said was irrefutable in terms of why he believes there'll be more efficiency and that he doesn't need humans to do all the jobs that they were doing.

[Carol Massar]

I want to go back though, to over leverage because I always think about who's exposed ultimately, like what happens when the tide rolls out. And I'm just curious how you see potentially a crisis akin to the GFC happening because of private credit.

[Danny Moses]

So I think in terms of it fueling the economy and economic growth, companies being able to access credit is great for employment. It's great for companies to. But maybe they otherwise wouldn't have gotten it, or maybe the leverage is too high, or maybe the covenants are too light that allow these companies to keep borrowing, modifying loans as soon as the money stopped coming in or slowed down, it should say. On the institutional side, what did we see? We saw private credit get offered on the retail channels. Well, some of these banks and brokers are incented to get it onto those channels. And that's my point. When retail investors get the opportunity all of a sudden to buy something.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Danny Moses]

You know, caveat.

[Carol Massar]

Listen, we, we talk about this a lot.

[Tim Stankevicius]

Yeah, we just talked about Mike Antopoulos. I mean, the idea that, that it's a signal of something that the market becomes more available or what he said is it's becomes more democratize. So in your view, not a good idea for the everyday investor to have access to these products.

[Danny Moses]

If I were a retail investor right now looking to get myself exposure, I would be buying Blackstone, KKR and Apollo. I'd be buying the parent companies, the large P firms that have permanent capital, that have, you know, a huge fee income stream. That's how I would expose myself. And guess what? I can buy it and sell it in the same day.

[Tim Stankevicius]

You wouldn't be putting private credit? I wouldn't be private credit, you know, funds in your 401k.

[Danny Moses]

If I had a retail broker that called me and offered me that, I don't think he'd be my broker anymore.

[Carol Massar]

Buying those names are liquid, as you know. Like we cover, right? These firms, you can sell and buy easily. But come on in, Alex, because I know you're listening.

[Alexandra Semenova]

Yeah. We're talking about retail investors, and I actually wanted to ask you, Danny, one new segment of finance that they're actually foraying into is prediction markets with kind of the excess cash that they have to spend. What do you think that will look like later this year as prediction markets continue to grow?

[Danny Moses]

Well, they're regulated by the cftc. They've taken extreme amount of market share from the traditional online sports books that we've seen. But it's really interesting because I actually use them as a way to follow the news. Not that you guys don't provide all the news that I need here, but you want to know what's going on in the election in Brazil, and you know that you want to either buy or sell Brazilian equities as a result. Watch those. Watch what's happening there. So you don't have to trade those markets, but you need to watch it. It's really interesting. One pops up, you're like, I never even thought of that.

[Alexandra Semenova]

You know, I mean, I've seen like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, a lot of big institutional firms citing prediction markets in their research notes really often now.

[Danny Moses]

Right. And they're partnering in the media. They want to get it out. The more I get it. And listen, it's growing. It's a sector that's evolving. But, you know, Sorry. Well, no, no, no. It's all about.

[Carol Massar]

We talked regulation, the elections. Right. Go ahead.

[Danny Moses]

No, it's. No, it's where the regulator lies. It's not at the state level, to the federal.

[Tim Stankevicius]

So that use case, I think, to a lot of people makes a lot of sense. But the question and real question that is available on some prediction markets, will Jesus return in 2026? Yes or no doesn't necessarily carry the same weight. I think with someone like you, that's a sign of something.

[Danny Moses]

Yeah, well, you know, I think there's an entertainment value. But I want to say, like, let me give an example of something that I just talked about on my show the other day, which is will the U.S. debt exceed $50 trillion by the end of 2028? Even the CBO, which is nonpartisan, has literally 44 trillion. 40. I'm negative on U.S. debt. That's a whole nother topic. We can go into some other time. But if it hits 50 trillion to your point, I say you take no, you trade no on that. Because if it's yes, we have a lot bigger issues what do we have? Another pandemic, another financial crisis. We bailed out private credit in the tune of 3 to 4 trillion. How do we get to 50 trillion? So when I see stuff like that and it's trading at 50 cents, so it's trading at a 50% chance right now, I watch stuff like that to tell me if it starts to move, then I start to dig deeper. What am I missing?

[Tim Stankevicius]

You watch it, but you don't participate.

[Danny Moses]

Oh, I participate.

[Tim Stankevicius]

Okay. How do you participate?

[Danny Moses]

I trade on Kalshi. I mean, I trade these markets, you know, will the s close below 7,800? I trade, yes, it will trade below 70 at the end of the year. Will gold outperform Bitcoin? Right. Yes, I believe it will. And it's interesting to see how they trade. Will the Fed, you know, see me? Fed fund futures will match up directly what you will see on Kalshi in terms of. But I don't want to set up an account and trade Fed fund futures. But I can just trade yes or no, the 4% chance that they're going to cut in March maybe.

[Carol Massar]

So how much do you allocate to a platform like that?

[Danny Moses]

Not a ton, but enough that it's entertaining.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Danny Moses]

So I do my NFL there now, you know, certain football season. I'm doing my masters there during the golf tournament. So use it all. But yeah.

[Carol Massar]

I want to ask you, you said bail out of private credit. Do you think we get to that point?

[Danny Moses]

I would.

[Carol Massar]

You said it.

[Danny Moses]

Yes. No. If we got to that point.

[Carol Massar]

So if we got to.

[Danny Moses]

If we got to that point. Jamie Dimon just mentioned that, you know, things are okay. My issue is that things are okay because the Fed keeps bailing us out. There's a moral hazard.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Danny Moses]

And I believe it's in the back of people's minds that actually believe, you know what? If private credit goes, the Fed's going to have no choice but to bail it out. And they're probably right. It will have an impact on everything. Impact on the banking system. It won't bring it down. So I'm half kidding, but I'm not. So what did the TALF go again? Whole nother segment. But post financial crisis, the tarp, the talf, the ppip, we ran out of acronyms. Right. So we're going to have. We're going to come up with another one. It could be a vehicle the government subsidizes a period of time. What did they do during COVID They bought the hygiene. But people forget pre Covid, we were Already going through an economic downturn and it's kind of resurrected. Companies otherwise shouldn't have been saved.

[Carol Massar]

So if President Trump brings in a new Fed chair who is more comfortable with cutting rates, does this just fuel the problem or make it even bigger?

[Danny Moses]

You hope Warsh will maintain some form of independence.

[Carol Massar]

Do you think he will?

[Danny Moses]

I hope he does. I don't know.

[Carol Massar]

Because if he doesn't.

[Danny Moses]

Yes. Well, then you're starting to see what will creep in. Yields will start to move higher on the longer end, anticipating that whatever they do to move short term rates will fuel long term rates potentially higher. And you start to ignore inflation. You cannot ignore right now that inflation has stopped going down.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Danny Moses]

And it's taking back up. Is it, Is it, is it just for a period of time? We don't know yet. But with oil now moving higher, it seems so. It's something really to think about the Fed's ability to cut rates from here.

[Alexandra Semenova]

So, Danny, Lisa asked Jamie Dimon this question. I thought it was a great one. Are you worried about more about inflation or about an economic downturn?

[Danny Moses]

He kind of said both. Go to that. I'm probably more. I'm not that concerned about inflation. I'm worried about the question you just asked. If the Fed starts cutting in the face of inflation, what that would look like. I think the economy is fine, but I think that we've got to watch employment really carefully. And I think that's what everyone's spooked by. This memo that kind of came out. We're already seeing signs of that white collar jobs getting lost.

[LifeMD Narrator]

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Support for the show comes from public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds and crypto and They've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R and D spend small cap stocks with improving operating margins or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by

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[Tim Stankevicius]

Danny Moses, the founder of Moses Ventures Financial Computer, host of a new weekly series, the Danny Moses show on Scripps News. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio. Let's go back to what you were saying about AI and the economic effects of that and what that is on the labor market and dig into the Citrini report a little bit because you did mention there are parts of it that that ring true and other parts not necessarily the Jack and we'll use the Jack Dorsey block news as sort of a jumping off point. Those are white collar jobs. The message was received and has been received. Is that something you see other companies doing over the next 18 months? Reduction in force of 40% and more.

[Danny Moses]

The same way no one was allowed to say tariffs a couple you know, a year ago on their calls like don't blame tariffs. So they're not going to say it. But why wouldn't you as a company you're a publicly traded company. You have shareholders. Your job is for margin expansion and to produce earnings. If you see the opportunity to do it, it's not a non for profit. You're going to do it. And so there's no question that these tools, if you believe the secular trade is real, which obviously it is, it's kind of an impact and you're pro Nvidia and you're pro all the stuff, then you have to believe there's there's an end user case for it both in the consumer and company wise. And so that's the case. By definition it will be you'll be more efficient. I think my takeaway would be we always the US consumer finds a way to make jobs around it. You know, it could be something that helps guide that technology. So there's always going to be movement in that and we've all, we've seen massive changes occur the.com in 2000. Right. We've heard there'd be no more Wall street jobs in 2008 after that. After that it's over. Finds a way to reinvent itself. So I do think, I just think it's a think piece to think about. Okay. But there's not a CEO competent one that's not already thinking how do I be more. That's even Jamie said it that they use it now he didn't want to say they're firing people.

[Carol Massar]

But I mean everybody's using it and everyone is telling us that if you're not using it, you're falling behind. And I, we are planning a Bloomberg, not me but our team, a Bloomberg Invest event that comes tomorrow. There's a big thing that you and I are both involved in and it's interesting. I've had some conversations about, you know, people say what you should do right now is talk to a 25 year old. They get how you can use these tools and the idea is that there will be a dislocation, whether it's five years or seven years or maybe a little bit longer between maybe an older workforce who's not going to embrace these tools and then a younger workforce who will and that will create free them up from some kind of tedious tasks but create new opportunities. Do you not buy that argument at all? That that's ultimately where we end? And it's going to be uncomfortable perhaps because education's maybe going to have to shift around a little bit and teach things that people maybe lose, you know, or would learn on entry jobs that they're not going to. So there's a shift.

[Danny Moses]

So you have lawyers, you have accountants and now you're going to have AI tutors. So there you go. There's a whole new industry that could happen. No, but you know, in all seriousness, no, but yeah, there are huge positives to it in terms of making every company more efficient, making us consumers more efficient. So that comes with more productivity for everybody. So maybe there's an offset there. I think again back to this memo. We don't spend a Lot of time on it. If you people that are that, that are saying yes, yay or nay on it, you got to read it because again it took, it's a long read. I mean it's a 30 minute.

[Carol Massar]

What is everybody missing?

[Danny Moses]

Just that it's a think piece to get and it's logic. You can't refute that. That could happen and it will happen in pieces. And like I said, yes, Dorsey example maybe is just a one off or whatever it might be. But I do think you talk to any CEO, they're not going to tell you that necessarily. But yeah, so somebody's spending Capex for a reason. Somebody's plowing money into these privates for a reason. Somebody believes you wouldn't be doing that unless you thought there was an economic benefit. Well, it's a zero sum game to a degree. So you don't just increase productivity and everybody wins. I think there's winners and losers here. So.

[Alexandra Semenova]

It was amazing. Danny, just a couple of weeks ago we saw entire sectors being sold off in tandem just being dumped because some AI startup said that, you know, it was going to replace jobs. Have you ever seen anything like that in past crises? And if that happens again, how do traders navigate?

[Danny Moses]

Well, I mean so that's software companies, SaaS, companies that always thought that was the best model ever. Yeah, I saw it. Your bank's going to close down, so go get your money out and line up around the block. Right. So what did that take the FDIC to come in and say no, we're okay tarp, the banks are going to be fine. So yes, you see that panic happen. You saw stocks, you saw Bear Stearns go, you saw Lehman go. Things actually did happen that even shocked us to a degree. So, so yes, you will always have whatever the kind of sector trade of the, of the time is and you will always get an overreaction and creates opportunity, potential to buy.

[Carol Massar]

Well, did you trade on any of that?

[Danny Moses]

Which on the software stuff? Yeah, no, I'm, I'm too negative. No, I'm kidding. No, I didn't buy. But there are names like there's always one offs and I, and I think I will end with this. We're focused on AI and, and all these, these sectors. There's so much going on outside of just the technology trades you guys talk about and all of a sudden everybody's energy playbooks out in the last week or so like oh wow, these stocks are cheap. If oil were to even stay at 65, these stocks are, and it's 3% of the S P. 4% of the S P. Right. Could be 7. So I just think there's always opportunity to move around and there's certain sectors which will not get aided away. And so as a Wall street participant, I think you need to focus.

[Carol Massar]

We want to go back to risks. But what do you think? What. What do you find most interesting in the marketplace today?

[Danny Moses]

Gold. And, you know, things that no one was. Now everyone's on gold. But things.

[Carol Massar]

And you're still on gold?

[Danny Moses]

Oh, yeah, still on gold. Gold long. The gold miners. I think it's a trade. Yeah.

[Tim Stankevicius]

When do you stop that?

[Danny Moses]

Yeah, Listen, it's a $35 trillion asset now. No one talks about the size of it. Yeah, it's really big. But geopolitics just reared its head again. Debasement, inflation. It works in a lot of different ways. And it's really a play that central banks are incompetent to a degree and they're going to do whatever they need to do. So if you think the way out of this, potentially I just mentioned, is the end game of this bailing out private credit at some point, I don't know. But gold kind of prices all that in. But to your point, these stocks move. The gold miners are up, you know, 100%. Whatever they are, of course, you have to take some off the table.

[Tim Stankevicius]

So what about spot gold at 5,300?

[Danny Moses]

Like it. But I play it through phys, which is a physical. But yes, there's ways to express it, but just I kind of watch the flows, watch what's going on, and you got to be smart with it. So I'm not giving advice here, but

[Alexandra Semenova]

retail also big participants in metals markets right now.

[Danny Moses]

Yeah, metals. Silver specifically. I think every metals market's a little bit different. I think the commodity trade is here to stay. I really do. Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

And so we're all pulling out our old jewelry.

[Danny Moses]

Exactly. Right. I'm not. You can't even get on 47th Street. There's a line out the door. So I'm not.

[Carol Massar]

Okay. Having said that, back to risks. Whether it's private credit, whether it's geopolitics, what do you see as. Especially as we continue to see a president who seems to kind of do what he wants around the globe in terms of either taking out leaders, for lack of a better word. So how do you factor in geopolitics? Because I'm kind of shocked at the trade today. I expected something much worse, and it was much worse overseas, but maybe that makes sense.

[Danny Moses]

Alex and I were just Talking about that before we came in and I think a lot of this was priced in. So what do we see? At the end of last week oil started to move higher, but not to the mid-70s but you know, West Texas moved up to call it 68. Then you had treasury yields lower and it's kind of odd, treasury yields were moving lower in the face of higher inflation prints. You're like, well is the economy slowing? What's happening? And gold was moving higher and so you kind of got some. So today is more of a buy on the news type of event. So what happened today? The microcosm looking at today is US dollar rebounded. Yeah. The belief that the US is still the ultimate power, the belief that we haven't hurt all our relationships, we can be a trusted partner. We got a little glimpse of what that could be because war always rallies the dollar. I think it's short lived. So to the point you're making, I think this is a kind of a false bounce. We forgot all of a sudden about the AI trade. You have this MFS in the UK blowing up which would have been, which would have been front page news on Friday and today if that, if there's other stuff. So that's page two right now. But here's another, you know, mortgage lending type, again not systemic but also just a sign that money has been circling around the globe trying to find a place to go. And sometimes it's too easy, it's too free. So I just think in general, and the last thing I'll say is I am very concerned about US debt and debt to gdp. That's my big. I know it doesn't matter. No one cares.

[Carol Massar]

No it, but it should.

[Danny Moses]

It matters because one misstep here. Yeah, yeah.

[Tim Stankevicius]

Well when does it matter? When does it matter?

[Danny Moses]

Well again I'm not going to call a failed auction in the 10 year yield. But when you start to issue more T bills instead of 10 year notes, right. When you start to do those things, you by definition create refinancing and repricing risk down the road. So inflation does come up and the Fed's hands are tied. All of a sudden these T bills which you're issuing instead of 10 year because you want to put pressure on 10 year bonds just doesn't work. And so we just, all we did from 2008 on was just move the risk to the government balance sheet. But you're not going to outgrow it. You cannot, we're going to have, we are not going to run a surplus in this country. We're going to run a deficit. Is it 1 trillion, 2 trillion or 3 trillion a year? I don't know. Back to the cal, she had 50 trillion and into 2028 we're under 39 trillion right now. That's almost 12 trillion from here. So that's a big concern because if our rates start to move higher, there's so much to. So maybe so much to worry about. Just buy us, I guess just buy stocks. Honestly, I don't even know.

[Carol Massar]

So get cash into.

[Danny Moses]

Yeah, exactly.

[Carol Massar]

Just got to. I'm going to. Because you brought us all together. Got 30 seconds. You want to do the last question? We got a minute left, I guess.

[Alexandra Semenova]

Danny, Wall street retail investors have this penchant to buy the dip over and over again. And at one point does that backfire on them? Because it's, it's worked so far over

[Carol Massar]

the last few years. Just got about 30.

[Danny Moses]

I think it's self fulfilling. I think that even through the tariff crisis of last year, ongoing tariff crisis last year, ETF flows remain positive. So passive has still been positive. That comes down to one thing, employment. People start to lose their jobs. They're not putting in Monthly into 401k. So that would be where I see

[Carol Massar]

the most great momentum. Danny, thank you so much. Come back soon. Alex. The two of you, come back soon. Danny Moses, founder of Moses Ventures, financial contributor and host of a new weekly series, the Danny Moses Show. And of course our Alex Semenova. She is Bloomberg news equities reporter.

[Tim Stankevicius]

This is Special Agent Regal, Special Agent Bradley Hall.

[Danny Moses]

The time is approximately 11:15am about to

[Tim Stankevicius]

start consensual telephone call with Dr. Daiwa Tsang. China's Ministry of State Security is one

[Danny Moses]

of the most mysterious and powerful spy agencies in the world. But in 2017, the FBI got inside.

[Tim Stankevicius]

Wait,

[Public Ad Narrator]

I'd never seen that much evidence

[Danny Moses]

in my entire career. And I don't think we'll ever see

[Public Ad Narrator]

that much evidence again.

[Tim Stankevicius]

I now have several terabytes of an MSS officer, no doubt, no question of his life, and that's a unicorn.

[Danny Moses]

This is a story of the inner workings of the MSS and how one

[Tim Stankevicius]

man's ambition and mistakes opened its vault of secrets.

[Danny Moses]

Listen to the Six Bureau from Bloomberg Podcasts starting on February 13th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.