Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Bitcoin Whipsaws as Traders Brace for New Year Rebound
Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Bill Barhydt (Founder & CEO, Abra)

Episode Overview

This episode takes a deep dive into the current state and future outlook of the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on Bitcoin’s volatility as 2025 comes to a close and 2026 approaches. Guest Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra, provides expert insights on market dynamics, regulatory changes, investor behavior, and the anticipated role of tokenization in financial markets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Parallels: 2020 vs. 2025-26

• Similarities to 2020: Barhydt draws on historical patterns, noting how recent events echo 2020’s market behavior—market crashes, asset rallies, and subsequent rotations into riskier assets.
• Asset Performance Recap:
  • Gold and silver have reached new highs in 2025 (gold near $4,500, silver around $80).
  • Bitcoin has been largely range-bound for the year, despite strong moves after the U.S. Presidential election due to anticipation of regulatory clarity.
  • Historic reference: After gold peaked in 2020, risk assets like Bitcoin experienced substantial rallies.
• 2026 Projections:
  • Predicts that 2026 could mirror 2020 with Federal Reserve rate cuts, increased liquidity, leverage relaxation in banks, greater regulatory clarity, and the introduction of additional ETFs.
  • Barhydt: “It feels like, with the Fed and other liquidity catalysts, 2020 is going to repeat itself in 2026.” (04:42)

2. Investor Activity & Platform Trends

• Rotation in Holdings:
  • Two phases: Early investors taking small profits (the "Bitcoin IPO moment"), and now, a shift of Bitcoin holdings away from exchanges to long-term storage and wealth management platforms.
  • More clients are interested in borrowing against their Bitcoin holdings, anticipating a long-term price floor and upside.
  • Barhydt: “Money coming in to a platform like ours tends to stay there for a very long time, extending stays in cold storage for a very long time.” (05:46)

3. Volatility & Investor Sentiment

• Comparative Volatility:
  • Barhydt argues that in 2025, stocks like Nvidia and Tesla have been even more volatile than Bitcoin.
  • Core Abra clients are long-term holders, largely uninterested in selling:

    “The biggest question I get is what would I possibly sell into? [Bitcoin is] the best long term, you know, capital gains potential asset that I own.” (07:28)

• Trading vs. Holding:
  • Short-term price swings are largely the result of trading activity. The circulating supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has declined, reducing volatility driven by trades.

4. Regulatory Environment & Policy Outlook

• Legislation Progress:
  • U.S. government support is evident, with the administration portrayed as crypto-friendly.
  • Stablecoin and “Genius Act” legislation has passed; anticipation for the “Clarity Act” to overhaul securities and commodities regulation.
  • Barhydt: “The Clarity act...is going to be the biggest overhaul in many ways to securities and commodities regulation in decades, which is going to make it easy...for the tokenization of everything.” (08:23)

5. Tokenization: The Next Frontier

• Tokenizing Assets:
  • The initial phase is tokenizing existing shares, but the real innovation is in native tokenized equities—assets issued directly on blockchains.
  • Key advantages:
    • 24/7 markets—unlike traditional equity markets with limited trading hours.
    • Borderless, always-on liquidity, in line with investor expectations.
    • Makes borrowing against tokenized assets as seamless as with Bitcoin, potentially without triggering capital gains taxes.
• Barhydt Explains:

  “Crypto markets don't close. So now all of a sudden you have the opportunity to have a 24/7 borderless market...that is 24/7 liquid.” (09:40)
  “[If] you've tokenized Apple shares, Tesla shares, it's now just as easy to borrow against the value of those shares without having to pay capital gains taxes as it is against Bitcoin. That is going to drive the tokenization of everything.” (10:06)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Pattern Recognition:

  “History doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes...a lot of this sounds familiar.”
  — Bill Barhydt (03:22)

• On Investor Behavior:

  “Our clients are long-term holders. They don’t sell...The biggest question I get is: what would I possibly sell into?”
  — Bill Barhydt (07:28)

• On Tokenization’s Promise:

  “The real value comes in native tokenized equity issuance, and that has huge advantages. Our stock markets are closed more than they're open...Crypto markets don't close.”
  — Bill Barhydt (09:24)

• On Regulatory Milestones:

  “We got the stablecoin legislation, the Genius act passed...We're about to get the Clarity act out of committee...the biggest overhaul in many ways to securities and commodities regulation in decades.”
  — Bill Barhydt (08:23)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:57] — Carol Massar introduces Bill Barhydt and sets up the crypto markets discussion
• [03:19–05:27] — Barhydt draws historical parallels, reviews 2025 asset performances, and forecasts 2026
• [05:27–06:45] — Discussion on trends in investor activity, including behavioral shifts and borrowing against holdings
• [06:45–07:49] — Insights into volatility, trader versus holder mindsets, and why long-term investors remain steadfast
• [07:52–08:23] — Examination of crypto policy and regulatory landscape in the U.S.
• [08:23–10:22] — Detailed look at tokenization, its immediate applications, and long-term implications for global markets

Conclusion

The episode delivers an insightful look at the crypto market’s 2025 performance, the growing prevalence of long-term holding and borrowing against crypto assets, and how regulatory changes and tokenization could fundamentally reshape global finance in 2026 and beyond. Bill Barhydt's commentary bridges past trends and future possibilities, offering both practical analysis and visionary outlooks for digital assets.