Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend – April 10th, 2026

Episode Overview

In this weekend edition, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stankevicius navigate a landscape shaken by ongoing Middle East conflict, analyze how economic warfare is reshaping geopolitics, drill into Levi Strauss & Co.'s strong financial results and marketing strategy, and unveil Bloomberg Intelligence’s top 10 stocks to watch for the quarter. The show features deep dives with expert guests: Edward Fishman (CFR) offers insights on sanctions and chokepoints, while Levi CEO Michelle Gass describes navigating brand, supply chain, and new consumer trends. The episode culminates with Tim Craighead leading a global tour of companies on the analysts' radar, spanning luxury autos to prediction markets and Japanese exchanges.

1. Global Geopolitics & The Age of Economic Warfare

[04:13-15:11]

Guest: Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow and Director, Council on Foreign Relations; Author, "American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare"

• State of Conflict

  • Markets are in turmoil due to the escalating US-Iran conflict.
  • President Trump negotiated a fragile ceasefire with Iran under the threat of massive escalation, temporarily easing fears of a global energy crisis.
  • Negotiations for a durable peace are ongoing, involving high-level US officials and a "sticking point" of Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

• Rise of Economic Weapons

  • Fishman asserts: "We're living in a new age of economic warfare." (05:04)
  • Choke points—like the US dollar, Chinese rare earths, and the Strait of Hormuz—give countries, even smaller ones like Iran, leverage once reserved for superpowers.
  • Quote (Edward Fishman, 05:04):
    “We are living in a new age of economic warfare in which these economic and geographic choke points...have provided countries with unprecedented ability to disrupt the global economy...even a smaller country like Iran can hold the world economy hostage by weaponizing one of these choke points.”

• Iran’s Strait of Hormuz “Jiu Jitsu”

  • Iran learned from the US playbook, securing unprecedented sanctions relief by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz.
  • For the first time since 1995, Iran can now sell oil directly to the US and use the American financial system to collect payment.
  • Quote (Edward Fishman, 06:59):
    “Iran, by weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz for a few weeks, did get the US to actually agree to allow them to use the financial system.”

• Limits of Military Power & Surprising Outcomes

  • Prior administrations avoided direct conflict with Iran, fearing closure of Hormuz.
  • Iran’s asymmetrical use of inexpensive drones changed global shipping risk calculus, selectively blocking traffic—but not its own oil exports.
  • Quote (Fishman, 08:28):
    “I think the reason that neither the Bush administration nor the Obama administration wanted to start a war with Iran was because you knew that it could go very wrong...Iran has done...by hitting a small number of commercial vessels...asymmetrically closed the strait where no one else's oil gets through, but Iran's oil is getting through.”

• Prospects for Durable Peace or Nuclear Escalation

  • Fishman is skeptical the US/Israel could exit the conflict with a halt to Iranian enrichment.
  • Iran now institutionalizes control, charging up to $2 million per ship through Hormuz; relinquishing this is unlikely.
  • Quote (Fishman, 11:18):
    “We're at a point right now where the choices are we either cut a deal that leaves us worse off than before, but prevents us from...getting drawn into a quagmire—or we escalate militarily.”

• Regime Change & Public Sentiment in Iran

  • Protests have been subdued under wartime rally-round-the-flag dynamics, and expectations for imminent regime collapse are misplaced.
  • Quote (Fishman, 13:56):
    "The Iranian regime is awful...if you could get rid of the Islamic Republic, everyone would be better off. But the key miscalculation was to think the Republic was a shallow state...it's actually quite deeper."

• Next Global Choke Points

  • Attention should shift to clean energy technology supply chains—especially as allies rush for EVs, batteries, and solar panels dominated by China.
  • Quote (Fishman, 14:55):
    “The future choke point...is actually clean energy technology...Guess what, you know who controls all of those choke points? China.”

2. Levi Strauss: Timeless Brand, Modern Momentum

[18:12–29:47]

Guest: Michelle Gass, CEO, Levi Strauss & Co.

• Cultural Currency and Consumer Momentum

  • Levi’s surfs a renewed '90s nostalgia wave and pop culture moments (Beyoncé’s "Cowboy Carter" effect, JFK Jr./Carolyn Bessette miniseries).
  • Q1 results: 9% organic growth, 14% reported, beating expectations.
  • Quote (Michelle Gass, 19:09):
    “We are seeing momentum across the board, which is around our strategies really picking up and accelerating…across geographies, categories, genders, channels.”

• Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Focus

  • Big shift away from department store dependency to brand-owned DTC channels.
  • Strategic collaborations—Super Bowl campaigns, global partnerships with Beyoncé, Shaboozey, Blackpink’s Rosie, Nike/Jordan.
  • Quote (Gass, 20:06):
    “Levi’s operates at the center of culture...this is about launching, like I said, a campaign for the year...it leans in to what Levi’s does best across sports, across fashion and music.”

• Appeal Across Demographics

  • Levi’s targets multi-generational consumers and global markets, leveraging celebrity and nostalgia.
  • The company’s agility allows it to appeal to younger consumers while retaining iconic status.

• Supply Chain Resilience & Tariffs

  • Robust, diversified supply chain spanning many countries, with long-standing supplier relationships.
  • Tariff assumptions are built into guidance; recent tariff reductions present potential upside.
  • Quote (Gass, 24:54):
    “We have a robust, very diversified supply chain across many...countries...tremendous partnerships...we can address the needs of the consumer in the moment, whatever that moment might be.”

• Growth Prospects & Product Expansion

  • DTC and “denim lifestyle” strategies: products beyond jeans (tops, dresses, outerwear).
  • Growing non-denim business: now 40% of sales.
  • Targeting higher women's apparel market share (currently just under 40%, aiming for 50%).
  • Ongoing margin expansion: EBIT moving from 9–10% (a few years ago) to now 12%, with goal of 15%.
  • Quote (Gass, 26:31):
    “It’s important to have bold goals...consistent sustainable growth...exciting thing is you have visibility, the strategies are working.”

• Weathering Market Cycles

  • Gass highlights Levi’s 170-year legacy and ability to withstand economic shocks by focusing on brand trust, value, and quality.
  • Lower supply chain costs, broad price points, and innovation (e.g., premium Japanese denim and entry-level red tab).
  • Quote (Gass, 23:22):
    “We've weathered lots of storms…it goes back to who we are as a brand. During times like this, people do...go to brands that they trust, that they love.”

3. Top 10 Stocks to Watch: Q2 2026

[33:39–48:34]

Panel: Tim Craighead (Bloomberg Intelligence), Carol Massar, Tim Stankevicius

• Selecting the List
  • Bloomberg Intelligence covers 2,500+ companies, distilling to “focus ideas” with high conviction, catalysts, and market-disruptive potential.
  • The 10 quarterly picks are separate from the annual "50 Companies to Watch" list; each has unique upcoming triggers.

Highlights from the 10 Companies to Watch

Luxury Autos

• Ferrari
  • Still surging despite 24% price increases over five years.
  • Sold out through 2027; luxury demand insulated from geopolitics.
  • 20 new models coming, including the F80 supercar and new electric offerings.
  • Quote (Craighead, 37:15):
    “Those who can buy a Ferrari aren’t really impacted by...geoeconomics these days, and they've got a three-year wait list on stuff that costs a lot of money.”

AI & Semiconductors

• Broadcom
  • Growing in AI chips—specialized ASICs for inferencing, not just training LLMs.
  • “Use of XPUs is growing like weeds.” (38:41)

Medical Devices

• Dexcom
  • Leader in wearable, extended-use glucose monitors—a 15-day model (up from 10) is now launching, offering improved profitability and consumer benefit.

Financials

• Deutsche Bank
  • Local lending to benefit from German/European stimulus for defense and infrastructure; strong spreads and capital; buybacks expected to impress.
• Japan Exchange
  • Surging Japanese market, increased trading activity, and rising interest rates mean more fee and float income.
• Magellan (Australia)
  • Asset manager with major recent acquisition; 80% payout ratio. Analyst consensus may be underestimating dividend upside.

Sports Betting & Prediction Markets

• DraftKings
  • Competition from prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket) spiked around big events. DraftKings launches its own prediction app; still commands far larger install base.
  • Quote (Craighead, 44:37):
    “We would expect to see better than expected earnings coming up…their business is going fine and they’re launching their own prediction app.”

Chinese Tech

• Meituan
  • China’s dominant food delivery/service platform. Facing new competition (e.g., Alibaba) in “insta-shopping” and quick grocery delivery. Consensus may underestimate rising costs amid competitive pressure.

Competitive Surprises

• No large defense companies on this list—despite sector popularity, focus is on underappreciated, underdog stories.

4. European Economic Outlook

[46:43–48:34, Tim Craighead]

• 2026 was hoped to be Europe’s economic rebound year, with improved stats, interest rate cuts, and new infrastructure/defense spending.
• Iran conflict complicates everything; energy supply from the Strait of Hormuz is crucial, and Europe is more exposed to this risk than the US.
• Quote (Craighead, 46:56):
  “Europe is more exposed to the energy issue…focus is on how long is the constraint of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Edward Fishman on Economic Warfare:
  “Both [the Chinese embargo on rare earths and the Iranian cutoff of Hormuz] showed that when you retaliate against the US...you actually might get more concessions than through diplomacy.” (07:59)
• Michelle Gass on Levi’s Broad Appeal:
  “It's the product and it's the execution and all of those things are working...the team is doing a phenomenal job.” (19:31)
• Tim Craighead on Ferrari:
  “Average price has jumped 24%...still sold out through 2027.” (37:15)
• Tim Craighead on Markets:
  “That’s the main leverage for Iran—energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe is more sensitive...than the U.S.” (48:25)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 04:13 – Edward Fishman on Economic Warfare and Choke Points
• 18:12 – Levi Strauss CEO Michelle Gass on Strategy & Results
• 33:39 – Tim Craighead and Bloomberg Intelligence: Top 10 Companies to Watch

Summary Takeaways

The episode captures a world where geopolitics and economics are tightly intertwined: choke points like Hormuz enable “smaller” states to wield outsized power, companies like Levi’s endure cycles by deepening direct relationships with consumers, and the biggest investment opportunities emerge at unexpected intersections—whether luxury autos, AI chips, or prediction markets. The team at Bloomberg Businessweek threads these disparate developments with clarity and urgency, equipping listeners with insight on how people, companies, and trends are shaping today’s unpredictable economy.