Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - December 19th, 2025

Date: December 20, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend delivers an end-of-year deep dive into the economy’s shifting landscape—encompassing financial risks, the surging demand on power grids, evolving energy and crypto markets, and the impact on restaurant, retail, and leisure businesses. The hosts talk to top executives and analysts for fresh perspective on systemic risks, grid modernization, bitcoin’s bust, consumer spending, labor shortages, and the future of live events and sports. It's a comprehensive pulse-check from Wall Street to Main Street as we head into 2026.

Key Segments & Insights

Macroeconomic Risks, Private Credit & AI—w/ Chris Whelan (Whalen Global Advisors)

[03:46–14:52]

Market Disconnect & Systemic Risks

• Chris Whelan outlines a “disconnect”: listed stocks are performing well, while credit markets show rising stress—driven by liquidity shifting from private to public markets.

  “Private equity, private credit is a mess. ...15% of private equity companies in the US are paying in kind rather than in cash.” — Chris Whelan [05:47]

• Risk is hidden: loan losses and forbearance, especially in sectors like NYC multifamily apartments, may not show up in official numbers for some time.

  “There’s a lot of forbearance here in New York City for multifamily apartments. ...We have this accumulation of pressures, mostly caused by inflation, mostly caused by our friends at the Fed.” — Chris Whelan [04:44]

• Banks now facilitate non-bank lending, reminiscent of pre-2008 behaviors.

  “You have non-bank intermediation reliant on the bond market, equity markets and bank credit. ...Eventually they’re going to stumble and that’s what everybody’s worried about.” — Chris Whelan [06:38]

Private Markets: Canary in the Coal Mine?

• Recent defaults by private firms like First Brands and Tricolor Auto Lender are warning signals.

  “I think they are typical of what we’re going to see more in the future... The idea that private was better than public? No. We have public markets because they’re open and relatively liquid.” — Chris Whelan [07:17]

Are There Systemic Risks?

• Private market failures aren’t truly systemic but will “cause a bit of kerfuffle” and banks will be affected due to indirect exposure—especially given nested leverage.

  “The big banks will take their lumps too, because they are lending indirectly into these structures. ...You have leverage on leverage on leverage in some of these deals.” — Chris Whelan [08:02]

On AI and the Economic Bubble

• AI is incremental, mostly about better search tools and infrastructure preparation, not about achieving general intelligence.

  “What we’re doing is building a lot of infrastructure. ...we’re spending a ton of money, not so much on building AI, but preparing to have the capacity to do it.” — Chris Whelan [13:37]

• Ken Griffin (Citadel) (clip): “Generative AI as we know it today will have a very pointed but relatively limited impact on the broader economy.” [11:55]
• Chris Whelan agrees, calling the AI hype cycle “mostly marketing” and warning of a bubble.

  “Of course we are. That's what humans do. That's what markets do.” — Chris Whelan, on whether we're in a bubble [13:48] “Never mistake sales with delivery.” — Chris Whelan [14:51]

The Power Grid Strain—US & World

With Sally Librera (President, National Grid New York)

[19:14–25:28]

Surging Demand & Infrastructure Challenges

• Electricity demand is ballooning; companies lining up to tap NY’s grid now request three times the state’s current peak demand—up from just a year ago.

  “The cumulative power need across those companies ...is about 10 gigawatts... It literally tripled in just one year.” — Sally Librera [20:09]

• It's not only data centers; modern manufacturing (semiconductors, components) is also highly energy intensive and a big driver.
• The grid itself is aging—some key assets are nearly a century old. Modernization is overdue but costs are high, and utility bill impacts are a key public concern.

  “We are very careful about balancing the bill impacts which customers bear with the investments that we make in our infrastructure...even today we’re very strategic and pinpointed.” — Sally Librera [22:22]

Balancing Affordability, Reliability & Renewables

• National Grid’s approach: targeted upgrades, customer cost assistance, and supporting a full palette of energy sources, including natural gas and renewables.

  “Given the rate at which demand for energy is increasing, we need to be utilizing all of those opportunities, from renewables to natural gas to nuclear.” — Sally Librera [24:15]

Grid Stress & Global Economic Growth—w/ Akshat Rathi (Bloomberg Green, Zero Podcast)

[26:28–30:14]

• After years of flat or falling demand, US and European grids now face growing stress—driven by EVs, heat pumps, industry “re-shoring.”

  "Pretty much in any G20 economy … stress on the grid is growing. ...As that happens, economic growth slows down." — Akshat Rathi [27:36–28:32]

• Connecting new loads (businesses, homes) is getting harder and more expensive, which crimps investment and, in turn, growth.
• Infrastructure investment in transmission/distribution (not just generation) is a bottleneck; fixes are slow.

  "You could ramp up supply pretty quickly...but to get your grid to be actually robust...that takes longer." — Akshat Rathi [30:14]

Bitcoin’s Woes & Miner Outlook—w/ Fred Thiel (CEO, Marathon Digital Holdings)

[32:33–43:09]

Bitcoin in Decline

• Bitcoin faces its first annual drop not tied to scandal; down over 30% since its last peak, decoupling from US stocks.

  “Bitcoin at this level is finding support in the kind of 84,000 range... If it falls below that, you'd see more sales.” — Fred Thiel [32:49]

• Liquidity has rotated away from crypto to AI and then “risk-off” stocks; unwinding leverage in bitcoin derivatives is sapping the market.

  “You've gone from $90 billion ... down to the $30 billion range of open positions. ...That sucks wind out of the marketplace.” — Fred Thiel [35:16]

Industry Shift & Outlook

• Banks now embrace crypto, creating new products and infrastructure that could set up for future gains, though the market is in a ‘healthy retracement’.

  “Every bank, including JP Morgan, now ... doing all sorts of things with crypto." — Fred Thiel [36:41]

• MARA differentiates itself with vertical integration—owning power generation, operating across continents, manufacturing hardware (ASICs), and holding mined bitcoin.
• Distinction: MARA is a bitcoin miner/accumulator, not a treasury company.

  “We have chosen to hold our liquid assets in Bitcoin ... than to hold it in Fiat … But we generate Bitcoin by mining. We're not out in the market buying bitcoin on a regular basis like Microstrategy.” — Fred Thiel [39:46]

• On the crypto future: much good news is “already priced in” but expects growth realignment and continued expansion in traditional finance.

The Cost of Christmas—PNC Christmas Price Index w/ Amanda Gotti (PNC Asset Management)

[47:07–53:57]

• The price index tracking the “12 Days of Christmas” rose 4.5%—outpacing official CPI, a fun but revealing inflation measure.

  “It’s almost always more expensive ... The Christmas price index is up 4.5%. So we are handily outpacing ... the BLS CPI version.” — Amanda Gotti [47:43]

• Biggest price surges:
  • Five golden rings: up 32.5%, reflecting margin squeeze and gold’s own rise.

    “Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent. ... A reflection of a little bit of a margin squeeze.” — Amanda Gotti [48:21]

  • Pear tree: “Proxy for housing costs” also saw strong price growth.
  • Performers (e.g., lords a-leaping): Costs surged due to rising labor and concert/experience demand.
• The index, though a novelty, signals real trends: specialty goods and experiences are especially prone to inflation and margin pressure.

  “The consumer is definitely hanging in there ... but it’s definitely going to cost consumers this holiday season.” — Amanda Gotti [52:09]

State of the Restaurant Industry—w/ Michelle Korsmo (CEO, National Restaurant Association)

[55:39–65:28]

Sector Health, Consumer Trends, Labor & Supply

• Restaurant sales reached $1.5 trillion—up YoY, but margins and guest counts stay tight.

  “Strong as it needs to be and not as strong as we want it to be in these really tight margin businesses.” — Michelle Korsmo [55:39]

• Customers are careful and deliberate, seeking price certainty; restaurant foot-traffic is below ideal levels.

• Top challenges:

  • Uncertainty: “Restaurants are dealing with ... price increases changing from day to day” from supply, tariffs, and more. [57:08]
  • Labor shortages: Nearly a million open positions; calls for expanded legal guest worker pathways.

    “There’s 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers. … We need more legal pathways.” — Michelle Korsmo [58:27]

  • Rising protein, especially beef, and seafood prices remain a daily struggle.
  • Pennies shortage: Restaurants lose $13-$14 million monthly due to “forced rounding losses” (Fed stopped circulating pennies).

    “One in four transactions in restaurants is a cash transaction. ...[penny shortage is] costing your restaurants 13 to 14 million dollars monthly in forced rounding losses.” — Michelle Korsmo [63:32–63:55]

• On immigration: Most workers contribute positively; wants legal pathways, not blanket criminalization.

  “There’s a lot of people who are showing up every day, working hard, being reliable, taking care of their families, doing the right thing.... Let’s find a place for them to do that.” — Michelle Korsmo [61:10]

Ski and Running Industry—w/ Bob Shea (Founder/CEO, Surefoot)

[69:52–84:37]

Surefoot’s Custom Approach

• Surefoot is the leading custom ski boot company, matching 3D scans to shells and custom liners in about an hour.

  “You walk in the door … you walk out with a boot that’s totally custom fit for your foot and ready to ski in." — Bob Shea [71:19]

• Custom orthotic business is booming, and Surefoot plans to launch its own line of footwear made specifically for orthotics.

Consumer Strength & Market Trends

• Sales are strong among recreation-focused, higher-end consumers, though weather delays (late snow) can create dips.
• Year-round demand is boosted via running and orthotic sales.
• Labor and housing in ski towns are major concerns—employee housing is offered, but keeping reliable long-term staff is always challenging.
• Growth will come via increased orthotic sales and new product launches, not franchising (which is explicitly avoided to preserve quality).

“We have to go up to give employees opportunity to keep growing… But no doubt it’s a big challenge.” — Bob Shea [81:02]

Live Events & Experiences—w/ Juliette Feld Grossman (CEO, Feld Entertainment)

[89:43–99:02]

Industry Scope & Consumer Divergence

• Feld runs global live spectacles: Ringling Bros., Monster Jam, Disney on Ice, and Super Motocross—2,800+ performances, 14 million attendees annually.
• Business is strong and growing, but split: affluent consumers are willing to pay for VIP/merchandise, while lower-income families are pressured by costs.

  “We see the affluent consumer who’s excited to spend on VIP experiences … and of course, we see lower middle income consumers having a harder time.” — Juliette Feld Grossman [89:43]

• Pricing strategy: wide spectrum of ticket prices, with experiences designed for every budget while keeping production values high in all sections.

Expansion & Diversification

• Feld is moving toward year-round engagement—more media, licensing (Monster Jam now the #1 vehicle license worldwide), and subscription services.

  “Now we’re increasingly working on building that 365 day presence with our customers, building out a more franchise-oriented strategy.” — Juliette Feld Grossman [93:48]

• Acquiring new IP and creating new content (Ringling Kids channel, premium kids’ media) is core to future growth.

Talent & Immigration

• Performers come from 17+ countries; immigration is “quite challenging” but manageable with planning. Example: special approval was obtained during the Ukraine conflict for performers.

Notable Quotes

• Chris Whelan:

  “Private equity, private credit is a mess... 15% of private equity companies in the US are paying in kind rather than in cash.” [05:47] “We have public markets because they’re open and relatively liquid.” [07:17] “Of course we are [in a bubble]. That's what humans do. That's what markets do.” [13:48]

• Sally Librera:

  “Cumulative power need across those companies ... is about 10 gigawatts. ... It literally tripled in just one year.” [20:09] “We have assets that are close to 100 years old.” [22:14]

• Akshat Rathi:

  “Stress on the grid is growing... economic growth slows down.” [27:36]

• Fred Thiel:

  “You've gone from the $90 billion ... down to the $30 billion range of open positions. That sucks wind out of the marketplace.” [35:16] “Every bank, including JP Morgan, now ... doing all sorts of things with crypto.” [36:41]

• Michelle Korsmo:

  “There’s 988,000 open positions in restaurant and hospitality this month. So we need workers. ... We need more legal pathways.” [58:27]

• Juliette Feld Grossman:

  “We see the affluent consumer who’s excited to spend... and of course, we see lower middle income consumers having a harder time...” [89:43] “With Monster Jam we have a very robust retail program with Walmart, Target, Amazon...” [93:48]

Timestamps for Major Topics

• Markets, banks & AI: [03:46–14:52]
• Power grid modernization: [19:14–25:28]
• Grid stress & economics: [26:28–30:14]
• Bitcoin/crypto mining: [32:33–43:09]
• Christmas cost/inflation: [47:07–53:57]
• Restaurant/labor/consumer: [55:39–65:28]
• Ski & orthotics: [69:52–84:37]
• Live entertainment: [89:43–99:02]

Conclusion

This episode provides a round-up of crucial trends: hidden risks in financial markets, infrastructure strain amid electrification and AI, crypto’s cyclical struggles, consumer inflation pressures, and the enduring importance (and challenge) of human talent in hospitality and entertainment. The mood is measured optimism—markets and consumers are adapting, but policy and investment gaps, labor and cost pressures, and bubbles in both tech and energy loom large as we close out 2025.