Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend: December 5th, 2025

Date: December 6, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stanweck
Summary Prepared By: Bloomberg Businessweek Summarizer

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend offers a panoramic view of today’s complex economy as the hosts delve into consumer credit trends, the evolving private credit landscape, cybersecurity threats and industry innovation, the New York real estate market, retail challenges, and international business expansion in food retail. Interviewees include Lending Club CEO Scott Sanborn, Oaktree Capital's Christina Lee, Zscaler CEO Jay Choudhary, Northwind Group's Ron Eliasaf, and Hotel Chocolat's Angus Thirlwell, along with business reporters and analysts. Throughout, listeners receive actionable insights on U.S. consumer health, private debt risk, cloud security’s cutting edge, urban development, and what’s next for iconic retailers.

Key Segments & Insights

1. U.S. Economic Outlook and Consumer Credit Health

Lending Club: Serving America’s “Middle Majority”

Segment: [04:02]–[09:27]

Guest: Scott Sanborn, CEO, Lending Club
Analyst: Herman Chan, BI Sr. Analyst, U.S. Regional Banks

• Who They Serve: Lending Club’s customers are the “middle majority”: high-income but heavy credit users, typically earning $80,000–$200,000 per year, representing 1/3rd of the U.S. population and nearly half the nation's non-mortgage credit.
• Operational Model Shift:
  – Moved from pure marketplace lender to holding a portion of loans (post-2021 bank acquisition), fostering resilience and innovation.
  – "We're the largest eater of our own cooking." – Scott Sanborn [05:34]
• Dynamic Underwriting:
  – “At any given time, we have more than 200 tests in the market... constantly adjusting to reflect what's happening with the consumer.” – Scott Sanborn [07:06] – Lending Club outperforms industry averages: lower delinquencies, roll rates, fraud; higher recovery rates.
• Risk Selection & Controls:
  – Focus on controlling loan proceeds by directly paying off applicants' credit cards, ensuring actual debt consolidation. – “You have consolidated everything into one bill. Other benefit is your FICO score usually goes up by 30, 35 points.” – Scott Sanborn [09:09]
• Credit Card Crisis:
  – Credit card rates average 23%, the highest ever, with half of Americans carrying debt. – "People choose credit cards for rewards, not interest rates... half don't even know their rate." – Scott Sanborn [10:07]

Growth Ambitions:

• Aims to double loan originations to $18–20B/year, focusing on personal loan verticals:
  – 80% is credit card refinancing, targeting $1.3 trillion in high-interest balances. – Expanding into elective medical, private education, and a major move into home improvement finance.
  – “Home improvement is sort of a next adjacency... we're really excited to kick that off.” – Scott Sanborn [12:26]

Consumer Resilience:

• Lending Club’s customer base remains “remarkably resilient” despite economic sentiment "not being great."
  – "It's a drinking game now," Carol jokes about how often 'resilient' appears in economic coverage. [13:43]

2. Private Credit: Transparency, Risks, and Outlook

Navigating the “Cockroach” Wars in Private Credit

Segment: [14:12]–[27:45]

Guest: Christina Lee, Managing Director & Co-Portfolio Manager, Oaktree Capital Management, U.S. Private Debt

• The “Cockroach” Analogy: – Sparked by Jamie Dimon’s warnings (“When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” – [17:59]), private credit faces scrutiny after high-profile bankruptcies.
• Structural Risks: – Private credit is “sub-investment grade”; higher returns (8-9% yields) require accepting real risks. – “Private credit hasn’t really been through a full downturn yet.” – Christina Lee [19:22]
• Liquidity & Underwriting Pressures:
  – High liquidity is currently masking cracks; lack of exits means capital is recycling into existing investments. – “There's a supply/demand imbalance... right now, it's very competitive. Does that mean looser underwriting standards? A lot of time, yes.” – Christina Lee [20:58]
• Valuation & Transparency:
  – Advises investors to “ask your manager, ‘What is your valuation methodology?’” due to illiquid markets and subjective marks. [22:49] – “If you are way too aggressive... you will have a really hard time with your investors.” – Christina Lee [24:00]
• Opportunities & Caution:
  – “Terms are getting more aggressive, leverage is going up, pricing is going down... it's a yellow light – proceed with caution.” – Christina Lee [25:41]
• 401(k)s Next Frontier:
  – Expects “401(k)s will be the next horizon” for private credit investment access. [25:48]
• Current Deal Trends:
  – "As interest rates go lower, you're seeing leverage creep up because borrowers can actually make their interest charges now." [26:37] – Sees hope for more balanced deals once rate cuts cycle through into 2026.

3. Cybersecurity in a World of AI-Driven Threats

Zscaler: Innovating for the AI Security Era

Segment: [30:02]–[39:57]

Guest: Jay Choudhary, CEO, Zscaler
Analyst: Mandeep Singh, Global Head of Tech Research

• Performance Highlights:
  – 26% ARR & revenue growth, 52% free cash flow margin; “We beat all the metrics Wall Street was looking for.” – Jay Choudhary [30:02] – Attributes market skepticism to misunderstanding the company’s strengths: “Investors get it wrong from time to time. This is one of those times.” [30:59]
• Zero Trust in the Age of AI:
  – “Zero Trust architecture... is the foundation” for the next wave of AI security. – Focus is shifting from user-based to agent-based models; “every company will have scores of agents for every employee and they need to be secured.” [32:14] – Zscaler integrating observability, performance monitoring, and identity federation (via partners like Microsoft, Okta). – “We believe in doing a few things, but do them extremely well and partner with others.” [36:13]
• AI as Both Threat & Solution:
  – “Security is a very focused set of high-quality data... we can find a needle in a haystack and help all our customers.” [36:56] – Acquired Red Canary to bolster AI-driven threat detection.
• AI-Enabled Cyber Attacks:
  – Real-world examples:
  * AI rapidly scans for network vulnerabilities
  * Realistic phishing via AI-generated emails in CFO’s writing styles
  * Automated AI attacks once inside the network
  – “Now you can go to ChatGPT and say, ‘Tell me all the firewalls and VPNs that have vulnerabilities...’ in under 60 seconds.” – Jay Choudhary [38:30] – Zscaler’s approach: “We hide your attack surface... your applications are hidden behind our cloud. Bad guys can't even find you.” [39:57]

4. New York Real Estate: Challenges & Opportunities

Casinos, Housing Policy, and Urban Growth

Segment: [44:25]–[52:39]

Guest: Ron Eliasaf, Founder & Managing Director, Northwind Group

• Casino Project Approvals:
  – Sees new Queens and Bronx casinos as “a positive thing for New York City... It will create jobs opportunities, increase tourism and attraction.” [44:44]
• Policy Concerns:
  – Warns against NYC’s proposed COPA law requiring “right of first offer” to nonprofits on multifamily sales. “This will hurt [housing]...people will think twice before buying.” [47:35] – “If the mayor wants to reduce pricing, what they have to do is push more supply... not limit someone's ability to sell their own property.” [47:56]
• Affordable Housing Barriers:
  – High construction/land costs, insufficient incentives.
  – Upzoning praised: “Upzoning is the right way to go because in the long term the city will benefit from more property tax.” [50:31] – Infrastructure investment is imperative if adding residential density.
• Outlook:
  – Rate cuts are largely priced in; “more liquidity flow into the real estate market,” but don’t expect “another significant decrease” in rates soon. [52:08]

5. Retail’s Uphill Climb: Macy’s & Target

Macy’s: Navigating a Tougher Consumer Environment

Segment: [53:14]–[55:30]

Reporting: Wayne Bostick, Dani Burger, Matt Miller

• Current State:
  – Recent revenue growth thanks to “bigger tickets,” not increased foot traffic; average Macy’s shopper is late 40s. – “Still a cohort of boomers who want that physical experience,” but Macy’s must figure out how to appeal to Gen Z with experiential stores. [54:02] – "The retailers who do well... it's because you've got like Sydney Sweeney to do your campaign or some sort of celebrity." – Christina Lee [54:51] – Challenge: Single-brand retailers are easier for customers to connect with for direct purchases; Macy’s is a multi-brand, making it harder to build emotional connections.

Target: Can a New CEO Reignite the Brand?

Segment: [56:15]–[68:18]

Profile: Devin Leonard, Senior Global Business Writer

• “Cheap Chic” Allure Lost:
  – Target’s famed collaborations and mass-market design ($34.99 Michael Graves teakettle as a symbol), delivered “style to the masses,” but post-pandemic sales have declined. – “My wife, my daughter were really into it… They’d be selling Anasu handbags that my daughter, age 16, could afford...” – Herman Chan [57:25]
• Leadership & Culture Challenges:
  – Outgoing CEO Brian Cornell credited with a past turnaround, but avoided discussing recent stagnation at his “pep rally” sendoff (“He bursts into tears on the stage…[but] his last couple of years have been kind of a disaster.” – Devin Leonard [61:22]) – New CEO is an internal pick; the old CEO stays as executive chairman, perplexing some who want bigger change. – "It just seems to speak to kind of a larger problem at Target... a lack of urgency in addressing problems." – Devin Leonard [62:56]
• What Needs to Change?
  – Must regain “edge in style and design,” return to operational excellence, resolve store inconsistencies, and address employee dissatisfaction. – Risks: insiders may not push bold enough change; external threat is the evolving landscape where direct-to-consumer and digital are strong.

6. International Expansion: The Business of Better Chocolate

Hotel Chocolat Eyes U.S. Growth

Segment: [71:50]–[82:42]

Guest: Angus Thirlwell, Founder & Global CEO, Hotel Chocolat

• Brand Philosophy:
  – “More cocoa, less sugar”—offering high-cocoa content for richer, less sugary chocolates. – Emphasis on heritage: “History in the drinkable version is 5,000 years... the edible version only just over 200.” – Angus Thirlwell [73:59]
• US Market Entry:
  – Five cafés opened in Chicago as a U.S. pilot. – “Our neon sign that says more cocoa, less sugar, people are doing Instagram pics against it.” [75:35] – Affluent Americans over-index for dark chocolate, but there’s demand for milk chocolate done well.
• Mars Acquisition & Supply Chain:
  – Mars’ scale helps with non-cocoa ingredients (e.g., hazelnuts) and supply chain, but cocoa is intentionally sourced above market to ensure quality.
• Expansion Strategy:
  – Plans to move into New York, LA, and quality-focused growth, not just volume. – “In the UK, it took us 10 years to become a household name… In America, we're hoping to do it in half the time.” [82:16]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We're the largest eater of our own cooking.” – Scott Sanborn, Lending Club [05:34]
• “Private credit hasn't really been through a downturn yet.” – Christina Lee, Oaktree [19:22]
• “Investors get it wrong from time to time. This is one of those times.” – Jay Choudhary, Zscaler [30:59]
• “Markets do what they do. I have one focus: keep on innovating and serving our customers.” – Jay Choudhary, Zscaler [31:15]
• “You push more supply by providing subsidies, by endorsing legislation that makes it easier to build... not limiting someone's ability to sell their own property.” – Ron Eliasaf, Northwind Group [47:56]
• “It’s a yellow light—proceed with caution. You’re not going to stop investing, but you got to pick and choose your spots.” – Christina Lee, Oaktree [25:41]
• “If you go to the Target down the street from where I live in Washington Heights... it's a mess.” – Devin Leonard [67:43]
• “If we win in America, we can then win everywhere, as Frank Sinatra said, almost.” – Angus Thirlwell, Hotel Chocolat [80:06]
• “In America, you know, it's such a vast market that you've got to crack the code for California when you've just learned it for Illinois.” – Angus Thirlwell [81:48]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Lending Club (Consumer Credit): [04:02]–[13:54]
• Private Credit (Oaktree): [14:12]–[27:45]
• Cybersecurity (Zscaler): [30:02]–[39:57]
• New York Real Estate: [44:25]–[52:39]
• Macy’s Retail Discussion: [53:14]–[55:30]
• Target Profile: [56:15]–[68:18]
• Hotel Chocolat Expansion: [71:50]–[82:42]

Final Thoughts

Listeners walk away with a nuanced understanding of how credit innovation, private market risks, cybersecurity, and retail transformation are reshaping business—and daily life. From watching Fed policy to following next-gen chocolate, the episode delivers actionable intelligence for both business leaders and consumer-watchers.