Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - February 27th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend

Episode Date: February 28, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Key Guests: Chris Beam, Chris Miller, Chris Rouser

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the intersections of finance, technology, and culture shaping today’s complex economy. Key topics include the growing role and controversy of prediction markets, the ongoing AI-fueled investments in semiconductors, and practical (and fashionable!) advice for spending your end-of-year bonus. Fresh reporting and lively interviews highlight the economic pulse points—from Wall Street to the runways of Florence.

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Key Segments & Insights

1. The Rise and Fraught Promise of Prediction Markets

Guest: Chris Beam, contributing writer, Bloomberg Businessweek
[Segment starts at 03:34]

Main Discussion Points:

• Prediction Markets and the State of the Union:
  During the President’s State of the Union address, millions of dollars were wagered via platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi on everything from mentions of "China" or "America" to the fate of political figures.
  Quote:

  “I cannot believe people bet on this stuff, but they do.” – Carol Massar (04:14)

• Are Markets More “True” Than Polls?
  Chris Beam explains that companies market these platforms as sources of truth—reliable because money is on the line, and in large-scale elections, they often outperform polling. Quote:

  “Prediction markets can be quite accurate ... really good at predicting the outcomes of elections, especially large elections.” – Chris Beam (05:07)

• Risks and Regulation:

  • Manipulation: Small markets can be easily skewed by big players, but with scale, this risk diminishes.
  • Regulatory Differences: Kalshi is U.S.-based and CFTC-regulated; Polymarket, mostly overseas and less regulated, hosts more "fringe" bets.
    Quote:

    “Kalshi is entirely US-based ... Polymarket, most of their activity is overseas and so it’s not regulated by the CFTC. So when you hear about ... Will Jesus return in 2026? ... those tend to be more on Polymarket.” – Chris Beam (07:11)

• Entertainment vs. Utility:
  Serious prediction markets—on inflation, the Fed, or big elections—are seen as aggregating valuable wisdom, while outlandish bets skew more entertainment.

• User Experience & Competition:
  Betting interfaces on these platforms are simpler than legacy betting sites (e.g., FanDuel), attracting users looking for straightforward yes/no wagers.
  Quote:

  “With Kalshi or Polymarket, it’s very simple. Do you think this team is going to win or not?” – Chris Beam (10:00)

• Accuracy and Bias:
  Academic research notes large, liquid markets are relatively unbiased, but smaller, fragmented ones can be distorted.

• Mention Markets Example:
  A lively anecdote about traders betting on whether Jerome Powell would say the word “renovation” in a speech, and the ensuing debate about whether he actually did, highlights how even the "truth" can get gamified.
  Quote:

  “It can often be hard to tell what the actual factual outcome is.” – Chris Beam (14:06)

Timestamps:

• Prediction markets at the State of the Union: 03:34–05:00
• Manipulation and regulation: 06:42–07:57
• Sports betting dominance: 09:17–10:29
• Market bias: 11:46–12:40
• Oversight & taxes: 13:06–13:57
• Jerome Powell "mention market" anecdote: 13:57–15:01

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2. The AI Semiconductor Arms Race

Guest: Chris Miller, author of "Chip War," professor at Tufts
[Segment starts at 16:37]

Main Discussion Points:

• AI Boom’s Impact on Semiconductors:
  Meta’s recent multibillion-dollar deal for AMD AI power and deepened Nvidia partnership show chips are the bedrock of future tech dominance.
  Quote:

  “If you don’t own chips, you don’t own the future.” – Tim Stenovec (17:11)

• Industry’s Scale and Taiwan’s Role:
  Explosive spending on data centers, but primary supply still comes from Asia—especially Taiwan—leaving global supply chains vulnerable.

• Supply, Demand & Cycles:
  AI-driven demand is a "step change" akin to the smartphone era—booms and busts will persist, but baseline demand is permanently higher.

• Is AI Delivering ROI?
  Miller posits AI is already delivering major breakthroughs, though individual companies must still judge the timing and scale of their bets.
  Quote:

  “It’s an absurd question to ask, will AI deliver? It already has in a lot of ways... but I understand why there’s plenty of questions about what the investment is happening right now.” – Chris Miller (19:53)

• Profitability of Today’s AI:
  Serving existing AI models is already highly profitable (e.g., OpenAI and Anthropic’s positive margins). Investment in next-gen R&D remains crucial.

• The Supply Chain "All the Above":
  Investors and policymakers must monitor chip designers, manufacturers, and raw materials suppliers alike, as each is critical and subject to unique chokepoints.

• China, the U.S., and the New "Arms Race":
  Export controls continue to hamper China’s AI ambitions, maintaining a leverage point for the U.S., but "no silver bullet" exists to rapidly relocate global manufacturing from East Asia.

Timestamps:

• AI’s impact on semis: 16:37–17:46
• Cyclical risk & “step change” demand: 18:19–19:37
• AI profitability & future: 21:03–22:08
• Geopolitics, China & industrial policy: 24:50–27:30

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3. Spending Your Bonus: Money, Meaning, and Belts

Guest: Chris Rouser, Editor at Large, Bloomberg Pursuits
[Segment starts at 29:03]

Main Discussion Points:

• Bonus Season Realities:
  Debate on both the psychology and practicalities of spending windfalls: saving, splurging, or investing.

• The Comeback of the Belt:
  Inspired by Bad Bunny’s symbolic Super Bowl performance choice, Rouser argues that belts, long neglected in men’s fashion, are making a comeback. Quote:

  “Bad Bunny wore that belt because he was like, this culture is what ties us all together. That’s such a great message. When was the last time a belt had a message?” – Chris Rouser (30:54)

• Fashion Trends:
  European influence, western wear’s resurgence (thank you, Beyoncé and Pharrell), and the reimagining of the "American Belt." Brunello Cuccinelli as a high-fashion belt advocate.

• Belts as Self-Expression:
  Buy belts the way you would watches or jewelry—expressive, not utilitarian. Quote:

  “Buy an expressive belt ... Make it like a watch or a brooch…” – Chris Rouser (36:06)

• How to Actually Spend (Or Save) Your Bonus:

  • The article/guide covers everything from taxation of bonuses (with practical reading tips) to luxury splurges and meaningful experiences.
  • Top Splurges:
    • 2-3 week luxury private jet adventures in South America (Abercrombie & Kent, $59,000/person).
    • Patek Philippe annual calendar moon watch ($66,000 and actually available!)
    • Softwave, a collagen-zapping skin treatment ($3,000)
    • The "Bloom"—a physical card to add friction and help curb social media use ($59)

• Digital Wellness:
  Rouser advocates for tech boundaries, highlighting the addictive nature of smartphones and the value of gadgets like the Bloom or “Brick” to build healthier habits.
  Quote:

  “If you think you’re going to fix this on your own ... you’re wrong, because it’s built to beat you. So, like, we gotta figure out other ways.” – Chris Rouser (40:39)

Timestamps:

• Belt trends and symbolism: 29:39–36:06
• Bonus taxing and splurge guide: 36:15–39:36
• Digital wellness gadgets: 39:38–40:50

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Notable Quotes

• On Prediction Markets:
  “Critics call it unregulated gambling ... sometimes the truth is whatever the highest bidder says it is.” — Carol Massar (04:17)

• On AI Investment:
  “Would you like to be the CEO of the only big tech company that’s not investing in AI? That doesn’t seem like a very comfortable place to be.” – Chris Miller (22:08)

• On Belt Fashion:
  “In America, if you give someone a belt as a gift, it means you’ve given up trying ... Like giving a wallet.” – Chris Rouser (33:39)

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Takeaways for Weekend Listeners

• The lines between markets, betting, and truth are blurrier than ever.
• AI is reshuffling national and corporate priorities—chips are both the new oil and a source of international tension.
• Fashion, even something as ordinary as a belt, is part of the cultural conversation, and bonus spending can be both a treat and a statement.
• Digital wellness is emerging as a status choice—being “offline” might be the ultimate splurge.

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Additional Resources

• Chris Beam’s cover story on prediction markets in Bloomberg Businessweek
• “Chip War” by Chris Miller
• Bloomberg Pursuits' annual bonus guide (online at Bloomberg.com)

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For more insightful business analysis and lively conversation, tune in weekdays 2-5pm ET on Bloomberg Radio, listen on your favorite podcast app, or watch on YouTube!

Transcript

[Tim Stanweck]

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[Chris Rouser]

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[Tim Stanweck]

The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

[Carol Massar]

Context changes constantly and now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

[Tim Stanweck]

Hi, I'm David Gura. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this Weekend.

[Carol Massar]

I'm Christina Raffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines in depth analysis and big interviews, all the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture.

[Tim Stanweck]

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world.

[Carol Massar]

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

[Tim Stanweck]

Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to

[Carol Massar]

the podcast that's Bloomberg this weekend, Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern on February 28th. Make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television Radio and wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this

[Tim Stanweck]

is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news. As it happens, the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.

[David Gura]

Hi everyone.

[Carol Massar]

Welcome to the Bloomberg businessweek Week Weekend Podcast. It was a week where the political theater of the State of the Union and the whispers over that AI scare trade dominated headlines. Even as President Trump touted a new era of American energy independence to power the AI boom. A nervous Wall street held its breath for any sign that the multi billion dollar AI hype cycle could be hitting a wall.

[Tim Stanweck]

The results? Meh. Lackluster Salesforce gave a disappointing sales outlook. Snowflake failed to impress investors. Then came Nvidia. Despite another bullish quarterly revenue forecast, it actually drew a lukewarm response from investors, signaling that concerns over a potential bubble continue to weigh on the company.

[Carol Massar]

So with the backdrop of the AI trade ahead on our program, we Lean on a familiar voice to discuss the race to dominate the semiconductor supply chain. That race no longer your usual suspect, but now include many, several members. In fact, of the mag 7, the author of Chip the Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology joins us a little later on.

[Tim Stanweck]

Plus, you've got that bonus. Now what? Bloomberg Pursuits gives us the smartest ways to spend and invest that yearly check. And it's become less common in menswear in recent years. But Chris Rouser says now is the time to care about belts. He joins us a little later.

[Carol Massar]

I have a love hate relationship with belts, so I can't wait. I know this is from a man's perspective, but yeah, I do. I do.

[Tim Stanweck]

Bad Bunny will hook it up. That's what matters.

[Carol Massar]

All of that to come. We begin, though, with the rise of prediction markets. Now, on Tuesday night, while millions tuned into the State of the Union for all of the president's policy talk, or what they hoped would be policy talk, millions of dollars were moving on platforms including polymarket and Kalshi for the prop bets.

[Tim Stanweck]

While the president spoke of a, quote, national turnaround, traders wagered over $10 million on everything from whether the president would mention China to how many times he'd say America to the exact count of J.D. vance's collapse.

[Carol Massar]

It's kind of wild.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah. You can't even, like, you're kind of speechless. I know.

[Carol Massar]

Oh, my God. Once again, I know.

[Tim Stanweck]

Repeat the refrain that we hear over and over again. I cannot believe people bet on this

[Carol Massar]

stuff, but they do.

[Tim Stanweck]

That's what we hear. That's what we hear. But I believe everything.

[Carol Massar]

Which is why as the volume and popularity of these platforms grow, so does the scrutiny, or maybe a little bit more scrutiny. Critics call it unregulated gambling. And where sometimes the truth is whatever the highest bidder says it is. Writing for Bloomberg businessweek about how Polymarket and Kalshi are gamifying truth is businessweek contributing writer Chris Beam. Chris Story is the COVID story for the March issue of Bloomberg businessweek magazine.

[Chris Beam]

One reason I was drawn to this topic is that there's so many different ways to come at prediction markets. But to me, the most interesting question here was, so these companies, Kalshi, Polymarket, the way they pitch themselves is as sources of truth that this is going to be, you know, in a world where, you know, we can't agree on what's true, what's real, what's not, you know, deepfakes, what have you, prediction markets are going to be something that we can trust more than the news, more than pundits. And I was just interested in to what extent that is true. And as it turns out, in a lot of cases, prediction markets can be quite accurate. You know, they're really good at predicting the outcomes of elections, especially large elections.

[Tim Stanweck]

Got it right. Yeah.

[Chris Beam]

And especially at the top of the ballot. Scholars have shown that prediction markets are a lot more accurate than polls. Less so as you go down the ballot. But I was, I was also interested in the various ways that these prediction markets can be flawed. You know, there can be market manipulation, there can be insider trading. So that's what I wanted to explore.

[Carol Massar]

We want to talk about those flaws. But funnily enough, as they say, we were actually doing a segment on Warner Brothers discovery earlier like who's ultimately going to get the deal? And we did go to Polymarket to see on that. I just want to mention some headlines crossing the Bloomberg terminal because they continue to come. Warner Brothers says Paramount has boosted its bid to $31 a share in cash. So they're concerning the receipt confirming, excuse me, the receipt of a revised Paramount proposal. Warner Brothers says the revised bid includes a $7 billion termination fee. And Warner Brothers says Paramount proposal could lead to a superior bid. And we know the Warner Brothers board still recommending the Netflix transaction. So this continues on. So anyway, this is some. These are the kind of things though that are showing up.

[Tim Stanweck]

Is there a prediction for when this story ends? Because this is going on for a long time.

[Carol Massar]

I feel like it just keeps going over new and new bids. You get into though the fraud aspect and I think we are thinking about people who are maybe, you know, creating a bid or something and has some control over the outcome. That's a real issue.

[Chris Beam]

Absolutely. There's a lot of markets especially we can get into some of the differences between Kalshi and Poly Market.

[Carol Massar]

There are differences, right?

[Chris Beam]

There are huge differences. Kalshi is entirely US based. It's regulated by the cftc. So every market that they post needs to be at least run by the CFTC for approval. Whereas Polymarket, most of their activity is overseas and so it's not regulated by the cftc. So when you hear about some of the fringier markets out there, like will Jesus return in 2026? Will the US discover aliens in 2026?

[Carol Massar]

Wait, this is fringy. We only kidding.

[Tim Stanweck]

Depends.

[Carol Massar]

We some release from the White House. My understanding when it comes to aliens, but that's another story. But go ahead.

[Chris Beam]

Yeah, I mean those, those kinds of markets tend to be more on Polymarket. Because they would not pass muster with the cftc.

[Carol Massar]

Does it make, though, the other stuff that's on the, like, any less real? Like, I don't know. I don't even know how to, like, how do you gauge the credibility of what?

[Chris Beam]

The credibility of what?

[Tim Stanweck]

Like, if Jesus is back or what?

[Chris Beam]

So part of it, like, I'm just.

[Carol Massar]

Is it, is it just a. Yeah,

[Chris Beam]

I would say, like, is there any real information?

[Carol Massar]

Like, are there people who know what the outcome. And this goes back to.

[Chris Beam]

There's a spectrum of markets here. So you'll not be surprised to learn that these companies, Kalshee, polymarket, they like to emphasize the more serious markets where you can predict the outcome of elections or you can predict what inflation is going to be or what the Fed is going to do next quarter. And they argue that those markets actually can provide useful predictive information to help people make decisions in the world. That's one end of the spectrum. The other end of the spectrum is much more kind of almost entertainment, like predicting whether aliens are going to appear.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, there's also the sports betting part of this or maybe predicting outcomes of sporting events. I don't want to say betting because I don't want to. I don't know if it is betting. But you, you have told me in the past that in reporting this story, you, you did place a bet on one of these. Right, for the Patriots.

[Chris Beam]

Yeah, yeah. Which turned out to be a huge mistake. But yes, this is. So the vast majority of the activity that happens on Kalshi is sports betting. And I think it's, it's okay to use that word. Something like 80 or 90% of Kalshi is sports. Polymarket, 100% of its US activity is sports focused. Overseas is a different story.

[Tim Stanweck]

100% of what you see on polymarket in the US is sports focused.

[David Gura]

Correct.

[Chris Beam]

Because those are the only markets they've gotten approved by the CFTC. So then

[Tim Stanweck]

why are people using that instead of FanDuel or DraftKings?

[Chris Beam]

Part of it is just the interface is a lot simpler. Like if you go on to FanDuel or DraftKings, there's a lot of complex measurements and you know, you have to know what a spread is and you have to. It gives you the options to parlay different bets within a football game. Whereas with Kalshi or polymarket, it's very simple. It's, do you think this team is going to win or not? And you can make more complex bets, but it's a lot more user friendly.

[Tim Stanweck]

You earlier referenced and we'll talk about mentioned markets in a few minutes. But you earlier referenced the accuracy of these, especially at the top of the ballot, in the scholarly articles that have cited this as being more accurate than polling. Why is that? Is it because, as proponents say, people are putting money where their, their mouth is?

[Carol Massar]

And that was kind of, to my question, like, what is, what's unique about what's the value? And like, do they really have some insight that is valuable? Because it was pretty remarkable in some of the elections, right?

[Chris Beam]

Yeah. I think what it comes down to is polling and prediction markets are just completely different ways of collecting information. Polling, you're asking people what their personal opinion is. And polling, especially in the last decade or two, has in some ways gotten worse and worse because of, you know, cell phones and, you know, who, who responds, who doesn't. Whereas prediction markets, you're asking a different question. You're asking them, regardless of your opinion of who should win an election, what is going to happen? What do you think other people are going to do? And so really the idea is that you're aggregating information, like any market, but here you're aggregating different pieces of understanding about the election and how it'll play out.

[Tim Stanweck]

You know, as you speak about this, I'm thinking to a site like Wikipedia that uses the wisdom of the crowd. Supposedly this is also supposed to use the wisdom of the crowd, but Wikipedia gets in trouble for bias. Is there bias? Is it possible to have bias in prediction markets?

[Chris Beam]

Yes, is the short answer. And the smaller the market, the more risk there is for bias. Like a couple years ago when these markets were very small, some academics went onto a few election markets and placed bets and that skewed the results. And as a result, they said, you know, this proves that these markets are not reliable. But as they've gotten bigger and bigger, you know, the presidential market for the election of 2024 was, you know, millions and millions of dollars. That past potential for manipulation has been greatly reduced.

[Carol Massar]

We're talking with Chris Beam, contributor for Bloomberg businessweek, here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. This is on the Bloomberg Business Week cover story, his cover story on how prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi are gamifying the truth. Do they need to be regulated? Does there need to be oversight? Because are people you, you can make money. So are people gaming the system? Potentially, yeah.

[Chris Beam]

There is regulation already, right?

[Carol Massar]

You did say there was.

[Chris Beam]

So the CFTC currently has authority over derivatives trading, and technically, these are called event contracts. That's a type of derivative. So the CFTC is in charge of what contracts are allowed and what are not. As you might know, there's this huge debate over whether the states should regulate these prediction markets as gambling. And that would be much tighter. It would be probably mean taxing them a lot more than they are currently.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah, I mean, because to be fair, the gambling platforms, the traditional ones paid, are taxed in a way that these aren't taxed for sports betting. Right.

[Chris Beam]

Yeah. Yeah. I think when you, when you bet on polymarket or Kalshi, it's taxed as just regular income.

[Tim Stanweck]

So let's just briefly mention, mention, mention markets. I love the way the piece opens talking about this, what happened with Jerome Powell and this mentioned markets around Jerome Powell. That's, that's sort of our audience. Explain, explain what happened with the utterance of a word by mistake.

[Carol Massar]

We only have unfortunately, about a minute or so.

[Chris Beam]

Oh, sure. So, you know, people know that every word that Jerome Powell says in a speech can move markets. But in this case, you have traders on polymarket and Kalshi watching a speech, paying attention to literally what words will come out of his mouth. And so you had people betting that he was going to say the word renovation because they thought he might be talking about the DOJ investigation. It turns out he did end up saying it, but a lot of people didn't realize it until after the fact. So there was this whole debate, did he actually say the word? Which reveals one of the problems that comes up with these markets, which is it can often be hard to tell what the actual factual outcome is.

[Tim Stanweck]

Chris Beam, he's a contributor for Bloomberg Businessweek. It's the COVID story. It's the big take. It's one of the most read stories. It's all about prediction markets. We barely scratched the surface. Everybody should check it out on the Bloomberg terminal. The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

[Carol Massar]

Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all.

[David Gura]

Hi, I'm David Gura.

[Tim Stanweck]

Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg this weekend.

[Carol Massar]

I'm Christina Raffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines in depth analysis and big interviews, all the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg this weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people and culture.

[Tim Stanweck]

On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened

[Chris Beam]

in the markets and the world.

[Carol Massar]

Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead. Join us as soon as you wake up and bring us with you wherever your weekend plans take you.

[Tim Stanweck]

Watch us on Bloomberg Television, listen on Bloomberg Radio, stream the show live on the Bloomberg Business app, or listen to

[Carol Massar]

the podcast that's Bloomberg this Weekend. Saturdays and Sundays starting at 7am Eastern, make us part of your weekend routine on Bloomberg Television Radio and wherever you get your podcasts.

[Tim Stanweck]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

It's arguably the fundamental building block of the 2026 economy. We're talking about the semiconductor. Well, it's kind of been, I feel, like the fundamental building block for a long time. Everything, it seems, has some kind of chip in it. All right, well, this past week Meta shook the semiconductor world with a multibillion dollar deal to buy 6 gigawatts of AI power from AMD Advanced Micro Devices. This comes just days after Meta doubled down on its partnership with Nvidia. The message is clear. If you don't own chips, you don't own the future.

[Tim Stanweck]

Someone who knows the chip industry well is Chris Miller. He's professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, as well as a non resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He's also the author of the book on chips, the New York Times bestseller Chip War the Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology. Chris, it's good to have you back with us. Carol and I were just talking and you know, you wrote this book close to four years ago. this point, how different is the world of semiconductors and the world's reliance on semiconductors now than when you wrote the book?

[David Gura]

Well, I think the key difference is just the scale of spending that we've got right now on building data centers and buying all of the chips that are required inside of them. Nvidia first and foremost. But not only we've seen companies transformed by the data center build out, but in a lot of ways not much has changed other than that we're still sourcing our key semiconductors from Asia and above all from Taiwan. And so the industry is supercharged, its size growing faster than ever, but dealing with some of the same supply chain choke points that it had a decade ago.

[Carol Massar]

You know, we talk a lot with one of our brilliant voices on the chip world and that is our own Ian King, who has seen a lot of cycles, the ups, the downs, and we talk a lot about that supply, demand imbalance and what Happens when there's a lot of demand, there's not enough supply, the buildout continues, the investment supply goes up, and then there's a glut. So I'm just curious what your view is when it comes to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor world. Has AI changed it? Or we will see also an overbuild and oversupply and then a glut.

[David Gura]

I think if you look historically, certainly you see cycles up, cycles down, but there are moments when you see step changes in terms of demand for certain types of chips. We saw that with smartphones, for example, there was no demand for smartphone chips. And then now everyone needs a new smartphone every couple of years. And what we're seeing right now is that type of step change, a huge increase in just the baseline amount of chips that we're going to need for data centers driven by AI. And so I think we shouldn't expect cycles to be over. Certainly there'll be ups and downs in the future, but it's now very clear, I think, that we're just going to need a lot more compute for AI purposes in the future, and as a result, we'll need a lot more of the AI chips that go inside of data centers.

[Tim Stanweck]

In your view, is the promise that many people think AI is supposed to deliver, Will it, Will it actually be delivered? Like, what's the future that you envision? After all, this Capex has Spanish.

[David Gura]

Well, I think it's in some ways funny when we ask, will I deliver? Because if you look just three years ago, even after ChatGPT was released, there are so many things that were not possible that are possible today. Whether it's the number or the scale of hallucinations and answers that chatbots give you, or the scale of work that you can put together today that just wasn't possible in the past. We've already had so much new capability generated just in the couple of years since ChatGPT that in some ways I think it's a, an absurd question to ask, will I deliver? It already has in a lot of ways, but I think I understand why. There's plenty of questions about what? About the investment that's happening right now. Will that investment pay off? And I think there are reasons to think carefully about how much each company is putting in over what time horizon. But I guess when I, when I zoom out, I ask myself, do I want a world in which there's more access to compute or less? And it seems to me that we should, rather than being concerned that there's too much Compute being put in the ground, be excited that there's actually companies willing to invest in the infrastructure that's going to deliver all these capabilities.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, I think it's an important question to ask for a few reasons. And one of those is because if you look at just the capex that these companies are spending, you know, one company $200 billion in a single year, that's a big commitment and that's something that they have to convince investors that is money that is going to the right place, that's money that has to be earned back. Plus on companies coming to a hyperscaler and saying yes, we think that this money is not only being well spent, but then we can use this compute to actually create a product that will provide a return on investment. So yes, we've seen a lot of the hyperscalers benefit the, you know, the anthropics and the open eyes and the mistrals. Like that's amazing stuff. But, but at the end of the day, there are a lot of companies that are not necessarily technology companies that maybe aren't yet necessarily seeing an increase in productivity as a result of these tools. So my question is do those companies start to see that do we live in a world where this is a layer, just like the Internet was a layer of technology?

[David Gura]

I think there's no doubt that we're going to have AI as a layer that's embedded into all technology that we use. And when I look at the economic question, I say first off, is it profitable to serve AI systems today, not train the next generation, but serve today's? And if you listen to what's publicly reported about OpenAI or Anthropic, their margins on their inference business are not just positive but, but quite good. And so that I think is pretty strong evidence that the delivery of already existing AI services is a pretty profitable business. The next question is, should we be investing in R D in the next generation? Which is of course very, very expensive. But I think it's hard to argue we should dramatically slow down R and D and AI just given all of the extraordinary improvements that we've seen over the past couple of years in terms of capability. And so when you start breaking it down and ask, well, which specific investment do we think is excessive? Which specific investment would rather not be doing? Would you really like to be the CEO of the only big tech company that's not investing in AI? That doesn't seem like a very comfortable place to be. And I'd rather have a situation in which the big technology companies are Investing more rather than putting money in the bank or buying back their stock because they didn't have any profitable investment opportunities?

[Carol Massar]

Well, you know, I would say Apple's doing it differently, and I guess time will tell whether or not their approach works out. Chris, I am curious to, you know, who do you talk to? What research do you follow? What are the leading voices? What are the leading companies that you watch to figure out kind of how the semiconductor space is evolving? I mean, we still know TSMC is still the big manufacturer of all chips in the world, and there's geopolitical tensions to that. But give us an idea of where do you think kind of investors and just the world at large need to be focusing their attention on when it comes to the semiconductor world? Is it Nvidia? Is it China? Is it something else?

[David Gura]

I think the hard problem is that it's all of the above. And we've seen this play out in the GPU supply chain over the past couple of years, where you've had shortages in different types of components, different materials, and the memory chips that go next to GPUs and AI servers. Each part of the supply chain has had to dramatically ramp up its production capacity to respond to this surge in demand. And so if you only look at one part of the supply chain, you miss the. The challenges that other parts are often facing. And so it's the chip designers, it's the chip makers, but it's also the materials suppliers, which are often not even thought of as being semiconductor firms, but produce many of the capabilities that are critical to actually manufacture the chips and servers that we need.

[Carol Massar]

Do you think the world, or do you think the US specifically does need to be restricting sales of its most sophisticated chips to China or on others? I mean, we did see Nvidia. They still face some uncertainty in China. That's their largest market, or which it is the largest market for chips. The government granting some licenses to ship a small amount of some of its processors to customers there. But Nvidia is not sure if the Chinese government will give its approval. So there's still some back and forth here, but is it still an arms race of source? Arms race of sorts? Excuse me.

[David Gura]

Yeah, I think arms race is not a bad analogy. When you listen to tech CEOs, they'll speak in the same language. They're struggling to get access to all the computing power that they need, that they envision needing more tomorrow than they've got today. And if you listen to Chinese technology leaders, what you'll hear from them is challenges in getting access to computing power. And the primary reason they've struggled to deploy AI products at scale is because they've struggled to get access to all of the computing capabilities. And it's on a regular basis. We see new Chinese models launched that can actually be deployed at scale because they don't have access to the advanced chips that they need. And so this does, I think, seem to me that this is still a very powerful card that the US has to play. And so I think we should be very careful or on any decisions to give China more access or at least make sure that we're getting something in exchange for that.

[Tim Stanweck]

On that, Chris, the U.S. support of TSMC and the U.S. support of intel, different types of support, and I guess you could call the TSMC1 encouragement to build here in the United States. What is the right industrial policy to reduce reliance on companies outside of the U.S.

[David Gura]

well, it's a really hard problem because TSMC is such a capable and efficient manufacturer in their home base in Taiwan. But I think the US Government is right to say that we need a more diversified manufacturing base for the world's most important semiconductors. I think we've learned over the last couple of years there's, there's no silver bullet. President Trump's tried tariffs. That comes with obvious downside. President Biden tried subsidies. That worked to a degree, but only to a degree. Here's the reality. The chip industry has involved hundreds of billions of dollars of capex over the last several decades. And so it's just not going to move fast. And so if you want to slowly change the structure of where chips are produced, you've got to plan for years of, years of implementation of measures designed to shift the economics of the chip industry.

[Carol Massar]

All right, going to leave it there. Chris Miller, thank you so much. Good to check in with you. Professor of International history at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, author of Chipboard Joining us,

[Tim Stanweck]

I'm Barry Ritholtz, inviting you to join me for the Masters in Business podcast. Every week we bring you fascinating conversations with the people who shape markets, investing and business. CEOs, fund managers, billionaires, Nobel laureates, traders, analysts, economists, everybody that affects what's going on in the market, whether you own stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, crypto. You really need to hear these conversations. Sometimes it's behaviorists like Dick Thaler or Bob Shiller.

[David Gura]

Sometimes it's fund managers like Peter Lynch, Bill Miller, Ray Dalio. Sometimes it's authors. Michael Lewis, author of the Big Short and Moneyball.

[Tim Stanweck]

Regardless of the conversation, these are the folks that move markets each week. That's the Masters in Business podcast with me, Barry Ritholtz. Listen on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

[Carol Massar]

Well, it's bonus season, at least for the lucky few on Wall street and across a lot of corporate America. For some, though, it is a moment of relief. For others, a burning hole waiting to be spent.

[David Gura]

I don't know.

[Carol Massar]

You're shaking your head.

[Tim Stanweck]

What? Yeah, to be one of those sounds great. The question isn't just how much you got, it's what you do with it. For more on how to spend and invest your bonus this year, Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at large Chris Rouser. Chris, we're going to talk about how to spend and how to invest your bonus, but maybe we should start with buying a belt. Because I want to start with. Is that okay with you, Carol?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, I mean, listen, you can't get enough of this. I've been shuffling through this. This is another table read story.

[Tim Stanweck]

So I love this because, you know, we're still talking about the super bowl and the Super Bowl's halftime show, and your focus wasn't on the people who were grass or maybe who showed up or what wagers were made, who actually performed. No, it's about what Bad Bunny wore.

[Chris Rouser]

Oh, yeah, the humble belt, Specifically his belt.

[David Gura]

I'm laughing.

[Carol Massar]

Why are you already laughing? This is really funny. All right, go ahead. Talk about belt.

[Chris Rouser]

Bad Bunny's belt is not funny. I mean, Bad Bunny, like, he had such a great, he had a great wildly proportioned outfit from Zara and he at one point he wore a straw hat, a farmer's hat. But the thing that I kept looking at his outfit was his belt, which was a very, very simple rope belt, was a Jabarro style belt, which was like in honor of Puerto Rican farmers, which is why there were people there dressed as grass and why he and the dancers wore farmer's hats at the beginning.

[Carol Massar]

And just to set the record, I'm not laughing at any of that because I loved the homage to culture. It was super impactful. I just, the way you write, there's a mom and dad reference that I really love, but go ahead.

[Chris Rouser]

Well, so I'm staring at this belt and then I was like, when was the last time I looked at a belt or like, even thought about someone's belt or someone's belt. Like, the bad bunny wore that belt because he was like, this culture is what ties us all together. And I was like, that's such a great message. When was the last time a belt had a message? And actually, belts are, like, under attack, guys.

[Carol Massar]

Why? What do you mean?

[Chris Rouser]

They're, like, in men's wear.

[Carol Massar]

Do you have a belt on?

[Chris Rouser]

I'm not wearing a belt on.

[Tim Stanweck]

I always wear a belt.

[Carol Massar]

Oh, yeah, you do always have a belt.

[David Gura]

Okay.

[Chris Rouser]

No.

[Tim Stanweck]

How else am I gonna keep. I'm also not gonna keep my pants up. Suspenders, right?

[Carol Massar]

Hey, my husband used to wear suspenders, so watch it, buddy.

[Chris Rouser]

So the thing in menswear these days is, like, a silhouette where your pants are huge. They got pleats or two pleats or 10 pleats, and they're flowy, but you don't wear a belt, and you. Maybe they're, like, long tab trousers that don't even have belt loops. Maybe they're Gurkha pants, like, I am wearing right now, which are so difficult. Difficult to get out of you. Like, it, like, requires a bridesmaid. And until very recently, I, like, had to wear a belt so that my pants didn't fall off. I don't know about. I mean, that's what I feel like. That's what Tim is saying.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

[Chris Rouser]

I would see all this styling on the Runway, and in, you know, like, you go to, like, the Ralph Lauren website or the Todd Snyder website. Like, none of the models are wearing belts. They're tucking sweaters into pants without belts. I'm like, how does that even work? What? Just doesn't.

[Tim Stanweck]

To me, it doesn't look right.

[Carol Massar]

My dad was a belt. Like, he had belts, multiple belts.

[Chris Rouser]

And I was like, I'm gonna. I'm on a mission now to figure out what's going on with belts.

[Carol Massar]

So what did you find out?

[Chris Rouser]

Well, so, yes, so the silhouettes for menswear are very much. For the past few, like, five years, have been kind of belt less low belt. But then I went to Pitti Uomo, which is this menswear show that happens every year in January and happens twice a year, but it's in Florence, and it's in this old fortress, and it's got literally hundreds of menswear designers, craftsmen. They've got people who make umbrellas and watches and jackets, and it is like, a show of force of, like, trying to make men beautiful, which was kind of overwhelming to be there for the first time. And there were so many beautiful belts.

[David Gura]

Like what?

[Chris Rouser]

Well, in Europe, there's so many great leather craftsmen in a way that we don't really have in the United States. And there are. There's, like, the Edelweiss belts from Switzerland. There's incredible Italian belts, obviously. And there were so many belts that were inspired by America. And now to me, in America, the belt is something that you. When you go to the department store, you're like, you have two things in your mind. Brown or black.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah, I don't have any belt that's not brown or black.

[Chris Rouser]

Right. Or maybe you're thinking, I forgot to put one in my gym bag, and I had seven minutes to buy a belt.

[Carol Massar]

You got this, like, court or canvas.

[Chris Rouser]

And as I say in the story, I sort of in my mind, like, in America, if you give someone a belt as a gift, it means you've given up trying. You're like, I'm not. It's like giving a wallet. You're like, I can't think of anything. I'm just going to use your belt.

[Carol Massar]

To me, you said to me, you giving a belt to your dad for Christmas is like giving a robe to your mom.

[Chris Rouser]

Yes. With that great SNL sketch.

[Carol Massar]

We've all been there.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yes.

[Chris Rouser]

And you're like, oh, a belt. Thanks.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yes.

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah. But actually, because western wear is such a big thing, which is partially thanks to Beyonce, it's partially thanks to Pharrell, had this amazing cowboy inside Native American inspired show at Louis Vuitton. Like, western wear is actually really huge, and it's, like, very globally influential. And so it was so cool to be, for me, like, the person who's like, american belts are so dumb to go to Europe and just see so many beautiful American inspired belts. Native American belts. Brunello Cuccinelli, who's, like, the most fashionable man on planet Earth, where's a belt wears a belt, was like, you don't wear a belt. I wear a belt. You don't get to accessorize. Like, I only get a watch. I don't go wear jewelry. I have to wear a belt. And he. His collection this year had American inspired sort of western wear belts with silver and turquoise. And I just was, like, really turned around, and I was like, the belt has a future. Yeah, the belts. The American belt specifically is having a moment and is gonna get bigger and bigger.

[Tim Stanweck]

So that's your prediction, even though on the Runway, we're not necessarily seeing. I mean, even. Even, like, there's a picture of rag and bone jeans in Your story. And a guy wearing those without a belt. And that, to me, looks naked.

[Chris Rouser]

Can you imagine wearing jeans without a belt?

[Tim Stanweck]

I would if I. If I don't. It feels. It feels like you're missing something.

[Chris Rouser]

Like, we're not all Ilya Rozanoff from Heated Rivalry. We cannot all just, like, our pants don't all, like, perch, you know, like, you got. Some people need a belt belt.

[Carol Massar]

Chris Ross, is your gift. No, but it's interesting. Like, I know this is about guys and stuff, but I, too, like, I've gone through periods of buying lots of belts, thick belts, like, and then I've whittled them down because I just don't wear them. And then there's always a few, like, I want to hang on to, because I do pull them out.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah.

[Chris Rouser]

And womenswear, for the past couple years, belts have been huge. Like, there have been, like, double belts and, like, trompe l' oeil belts that are fake. And, like, Elsa Schiaparelli had, like, models with, like, eight belts. And now just now, menswear is getting into, like, having a lot of cool belts coming back.

[Tim Stanweck]

All right, well, so maybe you can use that bonus check to buy a belt. How's that for a transition?

[Chris Rouser]

Buy an expressive belt. That's the idea. Like, buy something that tells the world about you or about your culture or about, like, what you want to say. Like, make it. Make it like a watch or a brooch or something that you can.

[Carol Massar]

There's a lot in this piece, and we're not gonna be able to get to all of it. They get into how our bonus is taxed, how to save and invest your bonus you've moved on from and then have to. Yeah, moving on, kids. And then what are the best things to spend a bonus on?

[Tim Stanweck]

Should we do spending? I think we should do spending, because the taxing. I will say. I will say we're going to skip this. The taxing part is really interesting and smart.

[Carol Massar]

Everybody should read.

[Tim Stanweck]

Everybody should read it, because I think a lot of people are. I've always been confused about why taxes look different on bonuses. And if you read it on The Terminal or bloomberg.com, just click on this yellow thing, and it takes you right to the tax part. But anyway, so let's get to the fun stuff, like buying a Corvette. Yeah.

[Chris Rouser]

This guide is great because you can sort for, like, what you want to learn about. And, like, if you want to learn about giving back or investing, you can sort of just click the button. It'll take you right to that part. My part was.

[Tim Stanweck]

Chris, you don't need to tell us your part. As I was reading this, I knew exactly what you contributed.

[Chris Rouser]

It was not.

[Carol Massar]

He did the tax implications.

[Tim Stanweck]

No, no, Chris did watches.

[Carol Massar]

The donor advised funds.

[Tim Stanweck]

There are donor advised funds in there.

[Carol Massar]

There are also informative.

[Tim Stanweck]

Okay, sorry, Chris, go ahead.

[Chris Rouser]

So my. If you're gonna splurge, by the time you get to my part, it's like, okay, you've spent your money on the good. On, like, the helpful stuff. Now you're just gonna blow it.

[Chris Beam]

The.

[Chris Rouser]

My. One of my favorite things was this. These, like, crazy private jet journeys at Abercrombie and Kent. Abercrombie is an amazing outfitter. Does they do them all over the world, but they do these ones in South America where you go to Colombia, Peru and Brazil, and you go through these great amazing waterways like the Pantanal. And so you're on a boat in. In like the Amazon. Then you get on a plane, you fly to a different country, and then you go on a boat in a different place and you see pink dolphins. You see huge anteaters. So that's $59,000 a person. That's very expensive.

[Tim Stanweck]

But it's three weeks, right? Three weeks.

[Chris Rouser]

I think it's two weeks and. But it's the kind of three weeks.

[Carol Massar]

It was a bargain.

[Chris Rouser]

I feel like you guys are like me in that. Like, you need to get outside sometimes. Sometimes if you go somewhere huge, huge, like a mountain, or you're out on the ocean or something, you're like, oh, wow, my stuff doesn't matter as much. I recommend a Patek Philippe annual calendar moon.

[Tim Stanweck]

Oh, you do?

[Chris Rouser]

Came out last year. This is a good one. Because normally there's a lot of watches that you go into Patek and you, like, actually can't get them because they're very. There's like a wait list. But this one is a very important watch at Patek. But you can actually get it because it's just, like, not as cool right now. Okay, so that's 66 grand.

[Tim Stanweck]

I was gonna say. What's the. Yeah, is there like a Swatch version of a Patek? That's the after tax.

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah, Swatch.

[Tim Stanweck]

That's actually. I'm surprised that it's 66. I thought Pateks were a little more

[Chris Rouser]

expensive, but they can be. Okay, that's if you want something that's gonna get you 12 months of personal joy. Softwave is this incredible new facial treatment.

[Carol Massar]

Have you used this?

[Chris Rouser]

I have not.

[Carol Massar]

Okay.

[Chris Rouser]

But we. Several people here at Bloomberg have Okay. So we can talk about it.

[Carol Massar]

I love this skincare stuff.

[Chris Rouser]

They basically elect. They sort of zap the collagen layer under your skin, and for 12 months, it just tightens up your skin because it's basically this like, low level injury underneath on the, like, under dermis. It's about $3,000. And people swear by it and they, I, I would like to do it, and I think I may. And then, you know, one thing that I got for myself which is actually not expensive at all, is this card.

[Carol Massar]

You did do this.

[Chris Rouser]

Yes, The Bloom.

[Carol Massar]

Okay.

[Chris Rouser]

Which is like stainless steel key card. It's $59. And it's basically like a thing that blocks apps on your phone.

[Tim Stanweck]

These things are having such a moment.

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah. There's one called Brick, where you have a brick on your fridge and you have to go walk into another room if you want to use the app that you want.

[Tim Stanweck]

What it does is it creates friction. So then it's like you're not just automatically instinctively grabbing an app, but go ahead.

[David Gura]

Right?

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah. And the phone has built in stuff where it's like you have time limits. And then a little thing pops up and it's like you've on Instagram for an hour and a half. Chris, what are you doing? And then I'm looking at bills. It's very easy to be like, okay, bypass. But if you have the Bloom, which is a stainless steel card that you can keep in your wallet or a drawer or another room, that level of friction for me actually does. That does prevent. That does like, I'm like, okay, bad boy. Come on. Like, stop.

[Tim Stanweck]

Did it permanently change your habits?

[Chris Rouser]

I just started doing it like a month ago.

[Tim Stanweck]

We should do something bigger on this.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, I agree.

[Tim Stanweck]

This is like, I just think this is a huge part of wellness moving forward. And it's our understanding of technology and the implications of technology. Regardless of what you're doing on your

[Chris Rouser]

phone and recognizing that it's addictive, it's an addictive substance. And, like, if you think that, like, you're gonna fix this on your own just through willpower, you're wrong, because it's built to beat you. So, like, we gotta figure out other ways.

[Carol Massar]

Part of a bigger action. I think of, like, also parents buying dumb phones for kids instead of smartphones. Right. Like, I just. You're seeing it kind of happen.

[Tim Stanweck]

You're gonna do it, Chris.

[Carol Massar]

All right, there's a chat here. There's a chat here. Chris Rouser. Yeah, as I said, love, this is really fun.

[Tim Stanweck]

That was Chris Rouser. Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at large.

[Carol Massar]

And that wraps up our weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Tim Stanweck]

Be sure to tune in to Bloomberg Business Week Monday through Friday starting at 2pm Wall street time on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV, also on Sirius XM channel 121.

[Carol Massar]

You can also watch our daily broadcast on YouTube. Just search Bloomberg podcasts. We're simulcast on Bloomberg originals, available on bloomberg.com originals and streaming platforms including Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Samsung TV and more.

[Tim Stanweck]

I'm Tim Stanwick.

[Carol Massar]

And I'm Carol Massar. Have a good and safe weekend, everyone. Check out some belts. Stay with us. Today's top stories. Are you laughing? He's laughing.

[Chris Rouser]

I want you to check out. I agree Cosign.

[Carol Massar]

Stay with us everybody. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now.

[Tim Stanweck]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Sonesta Travel Pass is the most rewarding way to travel. Sign [e-mail] for instant savings, bonus points and perks like early check in, late check out, room upgrades and free stays. Choose from 1100 hotels across 13 brands

[Chris Rouser]

and unlock their best rates when you book with Sonesta Travel Pass.

[David Gura]

Here today, Rome tomorrow.

[Chris Rouser]

Join [e-mail] terms and conditions apply.

[Carol Massar]

Hello, I'm Michelle Hussain and For more than 20 years I was at the BBC military withdrawal from Afghanistan. But all the time I was delivering the headlines, I wanted to go further than the news of the day to spend more time with the people shaping our world. And that's what I'm doing here on this podcast, speaking to people from Nigel Farage. Listen, love you trying everything Russia needs to be tortured. Listen, love you trying everything to tech journalist Kara Swisher. And the tech industry is running wild. You know, they've gotten what they wanted and they've seen a huge run up in their stock prices. This will be a place where every weekend you can count on one essential conversation to help make sense of the world. So please join me, listen and subscribe to the Michael Hussein show from Bloomberg Weekend. Wherever you get your podcast.

[David Gura]

He certainly asks interesting questions.