Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - January 16th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend – January 16th, 2026

Date: January 17, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Andrew Ross Sorkin (NYT journalist & author), Rick Waldenberg (Learning Resources CEO), Greg Storr (Bloomberg Supreme Court Reporter), Lydia Bayoud (Bloomberg Financial Regulations Reporter), Kate Crater (Bloomberg Pursuits Food Editor), Joe Hessian (Snow Partners CEO), Denitza Sokova (Bloomberg), Walton Goggins

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a high-level look at the real-world impact of economic policies (notably tariffs), how financial crises of the past inform today’s market and regulatory narratives, the explosive growth of prediction markets and their regulatory challenges, trends and innovations in the US ski and restaurant industries, and sustainability in high-end dining. Special guests provide firsthand, practical experience and deep analysis on these complex, timely issues.

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Key Segments & Highlights

1. The Real-World Impact of Tariffs (02:41 - 13:21)

Guests: Rick Waldenberg (CEO, Learning Resources), Greg Storr (Supreme Court Reporter)

Key Points:

• Tariffs—A Knockout Punch for SMBs:
  Rick Waldenberg describes the devastating effect of Trump administration tariffs: disrupted supply chains, 30% of his company’s labor diverted to “survival,” over $10 million in unexpected costs for 2025, and unavoidable consumer price hikes.
  • “It’s like wearing ankle weights in a sprint, you slow down and so we’re a little smaller as a result.” (03:29, Rick Waldenberg)
• Legal Challenge & Motivation:
  Waldenberg’s lawsuit seeks to invalidate tariffs imposed outside congressional approval, emphasizing family business, mission, and American principles.
  • “I wasn’t going to let a politician ruin what we built up over 100 years... I was more concerned about not doing something than doing something.” (05:37, Rick Waldenberg)
• Political Pushback & Ethics:
  Waldenberg responds to claims that challenging tariffs is “anti-American” by focusing on legality, the company’s educational mission, and constitutional process.
  • “We’re child-centric and we’re trying to help children get a great start in life. That’s our orientation.” (06:56, Rick Waldenberg)
• Questioning Tariff Effectiveness:
  Waldenberg sees no realistic prospect of moving all manufacturing home, stating his industry is a “rounding error” for policymakers concerned more with automotive or tech giants.
  • “I don’t think they care about our employees and I don’t think they care about your families who use our products. We’re rounding error.” (11:03, Rick Waldenberg)
• Supreme Court Wait:
  Greg Storr explains the significance of pending Supreme Court action and its delays.

Notable Quotes:

• “No American wants to or feels exposed to the risk of paying a tax that’s not legal. There are means for him to put taxes on us. He has to go through the House. That’s what James Madison wants.” (06:56, Rick Waldenberg)
• “If we don’t get the tariff opinion next week, the court goes on a four week recess...we could be in for a fairly long wait.” (12:49, Greg Storr)

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2. Lessons from Financial Catastrophes—Interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (17:03 - 41:51)

Topic: Sorkin discusses his new book “1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How It Shattered a Nation,” drawing lessons for today.

Key Points:

• Are We Protected from Another 1929?
  • Sorkin asserts modern mechanisms—real-time data, insider trading laws, FDIC insurance, and capital requirements—should prevent a repeat, but massive government debt and overreaction to crisis (“the put”) introduce new vulnerabilities.
    • “One of the lessons that came out of 1929...when there’s a crash or a crisis or a panic, the playbook is to throw money at the problem... The one thing that’s different this time is...so far, we’re all talking about corporate debt, really. Back then, there was...a budget surplus in America. Now we have $38 trillion.” (20:25, Sorkin)
  • Risks of Debt & Modern Panics:
    Technology may allow panic to spread faster—e.g., bank runs via Twitter (reference to Silicon Valley Bank).
• Hot Topics in Today’s Market:
  • Exuberance now isn’t about margin, but may appear in crypto, private credit, and prediction markets.
    • “The private credit business has always concerned me because of the transparency or lack thereof...You could argue [private credit] is only $2 trillion...I might worry today more about short term treasuries.” (23:11, Sorkin)
• Greed, Inequality, and Risk Appetite:
  • Social media amplifies FOMO, possibly feeding more risk among those who feel closed out of traditional prosperity.
    • “Is Wall Street greedier today?...I think there are more people who think that they are effectively unable to actually make it and therefore more willing to take risk...” (24:07, Sorkin)
• Regulatory Parallels:
  • Independence of the Fed is (and was) always political and fragile; current controversies could paradoxically strengthen focus on Fed independence.
• Humility as Antidote:
  • “No system is foolproof, no market fully rational, no generation exempt.” (41:12, Sorkin quoting his book)
  • Sorkin stresses humility, not just regulation, as necessary to counter periodic irrational exuberance.

Memorable Quotes:

• “The crash in 1929 wasn’t preordained...it was the first domino of a series...and then a series of, frankly, terrible policy choices.” (17:52, Sorkin)
• “Leverage is the match that lights the fire every single time...It’s always leverage.” (36:27, Sorkin)
• “We have the playbook. The question is...Can you have the humility to step back and realize that maybe that confidence could be misplaced?” (40:19, Sorkin)
• “Anybody who walks in the door and sits down at this table and...thinks they can tell you exactly what’s going to happen probably [loses].” (41:16, Sorkin)

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3. Prediction Markets—Boom, Controversies & Regulation (45:11 - 55:38)

Guests: Denitza Sokova, Lydia Bayoud

Key Points:

• What are Prediction Markets?
  Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket enable users (18+) to bet on outcomes from sports and pop culture to Fed moves and political events; rapid growth and skyrocketing valuations.
• Blurred Lines with Gambling:
  There’s debate among policymakers and the public if these are “truth machines” or just another form of gambling.
• Regulatory Complexity:
  • Traditional finance is entering, but regulatory frameworks (CFTC vs. SEC) are inconsistent and under-resourced.
  • Insider trading rules are murky—dozens of potential conflicts, e.g., if an executive’s statements move a betting market.
  • Self-regulation is the current method; the CFTC’s capacity is limited.
• Societal Impact:
  • Most activity centers on sports, but proponents hope for eventual use in economic hedging and crowd wisdom in serious domains.

Memorable Quotes:

• “For this [betting], 18 is enough. It’s very accessible...the bet is like as cheap as a few cents or a dollar.” (47:20, Denitza Sokova)
• “You have to grapple with...if you are Elon Musk, and you’re...what you might say on your quarterly call, do you swing a market just for funsies?” (50:17, Lydia Bayoud)
• “CFTC is chronically underfunded...there are more applicants, [the agency is] underwater.” (53:19, Lydia Bayoud)

Notable/Entertaining Market Example:
“Will a human land on Mars before California starts a high speed rail? 19% chance, costs 20 cents for yes, 85 cents for no.” (55:38, Carol Massar)

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4. Innovation in Ski Industry: Snow Partners’ Year-Round Model (56:11 - 67:59)

Guest: Joe Hessian (Founder/CEO, Snow Partners)

Key Points:

• Business Model:
  Snow Partners operates both outdoor (Mountain Creek) and indoor (Big Snow American Dream) ski resorts, with steady year-round operations.
  • “When winter’s on people’s minds, when snow is in the market...that’s where most of it comes.” (60:08, Joe Hessian)
• Cost Structure:
  Utilities are a key variable expense for indoor; company aims to keep skiing accessible ($100 for lessons, equipment, and snow access).
• Competition and Strategy:
  Remaining independent is possible by focusing on localized, community-based engagement and new pass partnerships.
• Growth and Technology:
  Their core opportunity is in “Snow Cloud,” a management software platform for ski and leisure operators, aiming to be the “Shopify of experiences.” AI-powered ‘agentic’ booking is the next innovation front.
  • “The disruption in the ski space is going to be driven by technology. I think...it’s going to be the way resorts operate...the next big change is about to happen with AI.” (63:37, Joe Hessian)

Climate Change:

• Indoor Resorts as Hedge:
  “It’s definitely easier to operate a business when you don’t have to worry about the weather.” (65:54, Joe Hessian)

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5. Trends in US Restaurants: Counter Service & Food Waste (70:50 - 82:51)

Guest: Kate Crater (Food Editor)

Key Points:

• Counter Service Grows:
  Counter-based restaurants will be a notable trend for 2026 to fight rising food/labor/real estate costs and still maintain quality.
  • “You walk up, you order...I predict that in 2026, you’ll walk up to a counter because they’re also going to be really cool.” (71:41, Kate Crater)
• Fine Dining Evolves:
  Elite experiences (e.g., 18-course maize-themed tastings in Denver, omakase in NY/SF/Miami) remain, but are adjusting on price.
• Sustainability & Food Waste:
  • Restaurants like Hag’s in NYC showcase “upcycled” cuisine, using all parts of the ingredients and even composting trimmings into mushrooms for risotto.
  • Tech companies like Winnow help hotels analyze kitchen waste and reduce cost/environmental impact.
    • “They use the compost in their kitchen to grow mushrooms that feature in a beautiful risotto...every single thing that you and I might throw in the garbage, she’s like, nope, I see other opportunities.” (80:31, Kate Crater)
• Changing Customer Attitudes:
  Gen Z and value-focused diners now accept “imperfect” but tasty food if it’s creative and sustainable.

Memorable Quotes:

• “Eating out has gotten so expensive...I think the sticker shock is starting to set in.” (72:11, Kate Crater)
• “Wine bars are here to meet your economic moment.” (78:51, Kate Crater)
• “Food waste makes me nuts. And it gets wasted on every level.” (79:20, Kate Crater)

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Additional Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Humility in Markets:
  “The antidote to irrational exuberance is not regulation by itself nor skepticism, but humility. The humility to know that no system is foolproof, no market fully rational, and no generation exempt.” (41:12, Sorkin—read by the author)
• On Recurring Crises:
  “Jamie Dimon... said, ‘Dad, what’s a financial crisis?’ And he said, ‘It’s something that happens every seven or eight years.’ So I think the truth is...check your calendar. We might be due.” (37:59, Sorkin)

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Timestamps by Segment

• Tariffs & SMBs: 02:41 – 13:21
• Andrew Ross Sorkin & Lessons from 1929: 17:03 – 41:51
• Prediction Markets: 45:11 – 55:38
• Indoor Skiing & Snow Partners: 56:11 – 67:59
• US Dining Scene, Counter Service, Food Waste: 70:50 – 82:51

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Summary Tone & Style

• Conversational and analytical, mixing in urgent real-world stakes (e.g., legal risks for business owners), wide-angle analysis (economic cycles, regulation), and insider color (restaurant trends, ski industry innovation).
• Notable through-lines: resilience and adaptation (in business and markets), policy and legal uncertainties, and the ongoing human element behind markets, business, and daily life.

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Episode Takeaways

• Policy volatility (tariffs, Fed independence) continues to seep into the real economy, especially for small and mid-sized businesses.
• Financial crises are less about history repeating exactly, and more about the perennial dangers of leverage, debt, poor policy, and overconfidence.
• Prediction markets blur lines between finance, gambling, and truth-seeking—with regulators struggling to keep up.
• Both ski resorts and restaurants are forced to innovate against economic, demographic, and climate realities—leaning into tech, accessibility, and sustainability.
• Humility, not just smart regulation, is essential for market and societal stability.

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For further exploration, see:

• Andrew Ross Sorkin, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How it Shattered a Nation
• Bloomberg features on prediction markets, restaurant innovation, and ski industry technology

This summary is designed to capture both the spirit and substance of the episode, offering detailed timestamps, direct quotes, and well-structured insights for listeners and non-listeners alike.

Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenbeck]

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[Carol Massar]

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[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenbeck]

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[Greg Storr]

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[Tim Stenbeck]

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[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenbeck]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenbeck on Bloomberg Radio.

[Carol Massar]

Hi everyone. Welcome to the Bloomberg Businessweek Week Weekend Podcast 2026. Definitely off and running. It's about one week since we found out that one of the pillars of US Economic governance was again under attack after Fed Chair Jay Powell announced that the central bank was served with a grand jury subpoena from the Department of Justice. It's not the only time the US Central bank was caught in the crosshairs of a president, or investors for that matter. And on that and what we can learn from our financial past, we turn to the New York Times best selling author Big to fail in 1929 inside the greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How it Shattered a Nation. Andrew Ross Sorkin will join us.

[Denitza Sokova]

All that to come. We begin though, with the real world impact of tariffs nearly a year after they were imposed by the Trump administration.

[Carol Massar]

The Supreme Court did not rule on challenges to President Donald Trump's IEEPA tariffs this past week for a second time, leaving the world to wait until at least this coming week, possibly to learn the fate of his signature economic policy. Again, possibly it could be even longer before we get some kind of ruling from the Supreme Court on this.

[Denitza Sokova]

Someone paying really close attention apart from us to that decision is Rick Waldenberg. Rick is CEO of Learning Resources in Hand to Mind their two educational toy businesses based near Chicago. Rick, back in April of last year sued the Trump administration to invalidate the tariffs as exceeding the president's authority. Rick joined us alongside Bloomberg News Supreme Court reporter Greg Storr.

[Rick Waldenberg]

Well, tariffs have had a dramatic effect on our business. The imposition of these taxes on our company with no advance warning and with seemingly no limit through our supply chain administration completely out the window. We had to rebuild our supply chain on the fly. It was a significant disruption in how we manufactured our product. And so we had an enormous diversion of labor in our office. Maybe up to 30% of our man hours were shifted towards surviving. That change also obviously created a huge cost, well in excess of $10 million in 2025, up from zero in the prior year. And so it affected our cash flow, it affected our costs. We had to raise our prices. And it's an economic depressant, a massive tax like that, it's like wearing ankle weights in a, in a sprint, you slow down and so we're a little smaller as a result of this huge tax.

[Carol Massar]

So Greg Storr, I want to bring you in. This is a great story as you, you do so well and it's, I feel like Bloomberg does it like reminds us that there are big stories, there are headlines, but there are people and companies being impacted and in this case a lot of small and mid sized companies. I think it's safe to say that Rick's story not unique.

[Greg Storr]

It's not unique. And in fact it is the smaller companies that have launched this challenge. There are two different cases that are before the Supreme Court and the other one's also small businesses actually smaller than Rick's. The bigger companies, while they have subsequently filed some lawsuits to try to get refunds in case the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, they didn't want to be out front in challenging these.

[Denitza Sokova]

So Rick, why did you choose to speak out? Why are you speaking publicly about this? Why did you file this lawsuit? It doesn't, yes, there's certainly upside, but there's also a lot for you to lose. Like, we've seen the way that this administration has been punitive in some cases.

[Rick Waldenberg]

Well, I think that the things that I was afraid of losing were the relationship I have with our customers, the dependents that are employees and their families have on our company. Ours is a family business. We've, I'm third generation, my kids are fourth generation. You have a very strong sense of how the health of your business affects the community that you live in. And so we just couldn't walk away from those folks. And I'm, I'm very American in my outlook. I want to take control of what's happening to us. And I wasn't going to let a politician ruin what we built up over 100 years. We're also mission driven business. There's lots of families like yours who use our products and depend on them to help educate their children. And that means a whole lot to us. So we felt like we had a lot of reason to stand up. And I was more concerned about not doing something than doing something.

[Denitza Sokova]

You know, the President, Rick, in Detroit said, quote, to be anti tariff is to be pro Chinese. And the tariff challengers at the Supreme Court are China centric. And he alluded to the idea of people who are challenging tariffs as anti American. How do you respond to that?

[Rick Waldenberg]

You know, one of the things I've done in this lawsuit is I've tried not to go tit for tat and to point fingers in saying that Mr. Trump points fingers at me. But I'm not sure that I make my point more strongly by engaging in finger pointing back. I would just simply say that Mr. Trump has no legal right to have imposed, imposed this tax on us. It's hurt our business. And we've asked the court to adjudicate that he has no right to do this. And no American wants to or feels exposed to the risk of paying a tax that's not legal. There are means for him to put taxes on us. He has to go through the House. That's what James Madison wants and that's what we need to do. So he can't do it. He has no idea if we're China centric or not. I would tell you we're child centric and we're trying to help children get a great start in life. That's our orientation.

[Kate Crater]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

What a story. A stark story. And Greg, you know, I look at your story on this and, you know, you say, and you remind us that the president has wielded tariffs to try to Get Canada and Mexico to crack down on illegal immigration, Brazil to stop, to drop the prosecution of ex President Bolsonaro, and India to stop buying Russian oil. He has used this tool a lot in this administration in this first year. Come on in on the conversation. And you know, you brought Rick to us. I'd love for you to ask Rick a question as well.

[Greg Storr]

Well, Carol, one thing you're pointing out there is that the tariffs that he has imposed under the law, that's that's at issue at the Supreme Court, known as ia There are other tariff authorities that he's used that are not before the Supreme Court. And so actually my question for Rick is, you know, the president has said that even if he loses a Supreme Court case, he's going to turn to these other authorities and try to replicate the tariffs. And I'm actually really interested in terms of your business, how concerned are you that even if you win at the Supreme Court, you're just going to see a whole different variety of tariffs, maybe ones that force you to kind of shift your business plans again and shift where you're manufacturing some of your products.

[Rick Waldenberg]

Of course, that's a risk. And Mr. Trump has a track record of changing the rules on a very rapid cadence, which makes it hard for us to run our business. It's a little difficult to respond to, like what he might do or what he might not do. All the other provisions in the law that give him the right to impose tariffs come with a lot of strings attached. So it requires a lot of fact finding hearings. It's a slow process. He can't do it by fiat. He can't do it by true social tweet. So I think it's better to wait and see, like, what he actually does. I'm not aware of a legal mechanism where Mr. Trump can be a taxing body. He's not allowed to do that. The Constitution is quite clear on that. So as much as he wants to do it without going through Congress, he can't. The law says he cannot. And so I don't want to overreact to threats made on tv. I think the Constitution provides the answer to that. Ultimately, at the end of the day, it's going to be a lot harder for him to build a tariff structure going around Congress. The law doesn't provide for it. And so we'll see what he does. And when he does it, we'll figure out how to respond.

[Denitza Sokova]

Rick, the story that Greg wrote back in November talks a little bit about in the beginning of this kind of game of Whack a mole of moving production from one country to another only to find the tariffs have been imposed in this country also. That was China to India and the like. At the end of the day, the President wants, wants tariffs because he wants this stuff made in the US So is there a way that you foresee in the future you could ever just make all the products or a good portion of the products that are made overseas? Right now you could make them in the U.S. certainly no.

[Rick Waldenberg]

And I've answered the questions many times. The answer is still no. And there's no evidence in the marketplace that anyone really disagrees with me. I think unfortunately the way this is being dealt with is that our industry and companies like ours are considered a sacrificeable rounding error. They don't really have any idea what we do or how we do it. They want cars made here, they want cell phones made here, they want chips made here. And so they've come up with one rule. That's what their intent is. I want to bring back pharmaceuticals. And like if something bad happens to us, it's not really their problem. We don't move the needle economically and so they don't care. And I don't think they care about our employees and I don't think they care about your families who use our products. We're rounding error. And I just can't look at the people who work here, the people who use our products and say I think you're a rounding error.

[Carol Massar]

I don't. Yeah.

[Rick Waldenberg]

And I think that we create great jobs. Greg has been through our facilities. He can tell you that, like we're a massive consumer and user of technology. User of technology. I think that our businesses and the way we run our business is an exemplar to other companies. We are what you want here. We just don't make a high tech product.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. You know, Greg, I'm sure I should apologize. Greg, I think Rick makes a really good point. We talk so much about small and mid sized businesses being the backbone of the US Economy and putting American workers to work. And he is certainly an example of that. Greg, we're now focusing on next week. Third times maybe the charm in terms of whether we get the Supreme Court to rule. What should we be watching out for and are we likely to get it just quickly?

[Greg Storr]

Well, we don't know even know that we're having opinions at all next week. We'll probably find that out on Friday. If we don't get the tariff opinion next week, the court goes on a four week recess. They're not scheduled to take the bench again until February 20th and normally that's how they release their opinions. So if we don't get it next week, we could be in for a fairly long wait.

[Carol Massar]

Are you surprised it's taking so long? Just 10 more seconds?

[Greg Storr]

You know, I'm not sure I've been saying I still stand with this. I'm not surprised either way. The court is tried to expedite it but but this is a big case. It's going to take a while.

[Kate Crater]

All right.

[Carol Massar]

So appreciate it. Great story as always. Greg Storr, Bloomberg News Supreme Court Reporter and Rick Waldenberg. He is CEO of Learning Resources and hand to mind a favorite of Tim's kids. It turns out. Business challenges and opportunities are never one dimensional At Marsh, we believe that to thrive you need perspective. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a newmarsh where each layer of our organization works even more closely together to provide you with a stronger, more panoramic perspective. We're now one firm solving the world's.

[Tim Stenbeck]

Most complex challenges and unlocking opportunities for.

[Carol Massar]

You across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments and management consulting. As business continues to evolve, Marsh will always be here to help you overcome new challenges, answer new questions and take advantage of new opportunities. We're better positioned than ever to provide the perspective you need to fuel progress forward.

[Tim Stenbeck]

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.

[Walton Goggins]

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

To 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. There's no chance that you have that kind of problem, but you know, there.

[Walton Goggins]

Are chances you have a problem somewhere, somehow. You know, the biggest unknown is is geopolitics.

[Denitza Sokova]

JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon this past week with Bloomberg host and Carlyle co founder and co chair David Rubenstein at the U.S. chamber of Commerce in.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Washington, D.C. j.P. Morgan, by the way.

[Carol Massar]

Featured very prominently in a new book out on the 1929 market crash. And this feels like kind of the right conversation to be having at this moment in time when certain investing narratives dominate US Financial markets, AI, private credit, transparency concerns, crypto, prediction markets and more questions about whether these narratives are the right ones that lead to longer term gains and prosperity for investors and for the country. There's a lot of questions out there.

[Denitza Sokova]

Yeah. Stuff about exuberance as well. Could it lead to a crisis or to a crash? It does lead us to 19, a book that takes us inside the greatest crash in Wall street history and how it shattered a nation. The book by New York Times bestselling author of Too Big to Fail, who also happens to be an award winning journalist for the New York Times. He's the founder and editor at large of DealBook. He's co anchor of Squawk Box on CNBC. Andrew Ross Sorkin joins us now. Welcome.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thanks for having me, guys.

[Denitza Sokova]

Yeah, thanks. You know, it's funny, Jamie Dimon was asked about just now by David Rubenstein about the financial crisis and about whether or not we could have another big financial crisis. Our question for you is in this day and age, could we have another 1929, like stock market crash or is the structure just completely different? Are the protections now in place? Could it happen again?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So yes and no. I can explain why no. And then if you'd like, I can get you there. If you want to get, if you want to go there. Look, the good news is the world is very different today from a technology perspective. One of the reasons that 1929 ever even happened was literally the stock exchange was oftentimes off, meaning the numbers that you saw on the big board were three, four, five hours behind the actual the Actual numbers. And as a result, people were just selling indiscriminately because they just thought the whole thing didn't even work. I mean, one of the reasons you always see those famous pictures of people down the New York Stock Exchange, the reason they're there, the reason they're all in the street, is these are people who've come from all over New York and the rest of the country to try to find out, like, what's happened to their money. So that piece of it you take off the table because you can get the numbers right here and off of your terminal and everything else, right? There's an sec. Insider trading is not legal. It was legal then. So all the manipulation that was taking place, there was no fdic. So you had bank runs that took place in the aftermath of this crisis. You know, we could talk about Glass, Steagall and what that either represented or didn't, or whether you think it's come back or not. But here's a bigger one. Capital requirements for banks, there were none, zero back then. So there's a lot of reasons you'd like to believe that we can't have another crisis of the magnitude we did. And by the way, it's also worth noting, the crash in 1929 wasn't preordained. That when that happened, that we had to have the Great Depression. That was really the first domino of a series of dominoes and then a series of, frankly, terrible policy choices. The Federal Reserve basically doing nothing. The implementation of tariffs. We can discuss what that means today. There was a gold standard, so there was a question about how much money you could throw into the system. Austerity, all of that, that worked against things that led to 25% unemployment. Didn't have to happen, if you will.

[Carol Massar]

I have to say that was one of the things in reading your book that I was like, wait, I think there was just an assumption that it was the market crash that caused the Great Depression.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Oh, yeah. Everybody thinks it's like, there's one bad day and then somehow there's a Great Depression. But there's so much in between.

[Carol Massar]

You know, listen, so many people on your book tours, like, Everybody's like, is 1929 happened again? And I do wonder, is there a better, smarter question that we should be asking you, having done all this research and taken us back there, making us feel like we were in the room when it happened, you know, that we.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Should be asking you, well, look, it didn't happen.

[Carol Massar]

Rather than, Can 1929 happen again?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'll give you actually how you could get to 1932 today. And that sort of maybe speaks to this. So one of the lessons that came out of 1929 was actually the lesson that Ben Bernanke learned when he was doing his great. His thesis on the Great Depression at Princeton is when there's a crash or a crisis or a panic, the playbook is to throw money at the problem. Maybe politically unpopular, but that is the lesson. And he did it in 2008. And by the way, we did it again during the pandemic. And I think we now think that there is a playbook. And by the way, there's also therefore a put on the market because we now have. We have the playbook. The one thing that's different this time is if you genuinely believe every financial crisis to some degree, is a function of debt. Too much debt in the system. So far, we're all talking about corporate debt. Really. Back then, there was, in 1929, there was a budget surplus in America. Now we have $38 trillion. The question is, let's say we have a crash and the government says, you know, we're going to write a check for $5 trillion. That's the put. And whether you believe that there is some kind of invisible line that turns into a red line for the bond market where they say, you know what? We, like you guys in America, we're happy to lend you money at three or four times the rate that we do today, and that's the interest rate you're going to pay. And then all of a sudden, you actually do get into some kind of austerity spiral. And then you're living at a 25% unemployment rate in the country. That's. I mean, when you really sort of try to get through the permutations, how do you get there in this day and age? That's one way. The one other thing that's interesting today is the technology, as bad as it was then, in some cases, could even be too good today. And I think we learned that with the Silicon Valley bank failure, where someone goes on Twitter and says, I'm pulling my account now, that information is accurate.

[Denitza Sokova]

Everybody does it over the weekend on.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Their phone, everybody does it. I used to think, oh, this device is so great, because if there was a bad piece of information, it could be corrected very quickly. But if there's a accurate piece of information, that's not good, Right.

[Carol Massar]

People act on it quickly.

[Denitza Sokova]

Well, so. So let's talk more about the technology today and sort of parallels and the idea of maybe irrational Exuberance and signs of irrational exuberance. Right now in reading the book in the 1920s, there was certainly a lot of that, but it seemed like it was, you know, more on credit and people buying on margin nowadays. There's the idea of crypto. Some of that has been kind of pulled back and in just a couple of months actually since you, since you published the book, we've seen some.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

There is a lot of debt in the crypto market. I mean, shocking leverage.

[Denitza Sokova]

So there's, there's that side of thing, there's prediction markets and sort of the money that's going into those, the excitement around those private credit and concerns about private credit that we've seen in the last couple of months. Any signs of anything there?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Look, the private credit business has always concerned me because of the transparency of it or frankly lack of transparency. I think if you were to talk to Jay Powell, he would tell you that, you know, even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a full grasp of how interlinked all of the debt and credit is in the private credit market. Having said that, depending on what numbers you're looking at, you could argue it's only $2 trillion. $2 trillion is a lot of money, but it's not, it's not the entire market.

[Carol Massar]

It's systemic.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So I don't know if it's, I don't know if it's systemic. By the way, I might worry more today about short term treasuries. I mean, by the way, we, the United States have been trying to sell short term treasuries like crazy because we think that we can get a cheaper rate that way.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

That's also a much more complicated place to be if in fact you actually have to pay it back more quickly.

[Carol Massar]

One of the questions we were kicking around when we're thinking about having our discussion with you is is Wall street greedier today?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I don't know if it's greedier today, frankly. I would argue. Agreed.

[Carol Massar]

Look, I think is greed bad necessarily?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think the lesson for me of writing this book in some ways was that they didn't use the phrase back then, but this idea of fomo.

[Kate Crater]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Which by the way is driven in part by this phone and TikTok and people seeing all sorts of things. And by the way, I think makes inequality actually. I don't know if it makes it worse, but the perception of it and just the visibility of it. But I do think the sort of FOMO greed envy, I think that's what's driven that is what's driven people for, you know, the test of time. And that's what it is. Is it worse today than it was before? I don't know. Except. And maybe this gets to the inequality piece. I think there are more people who think that they are effectively unable to actually make it and therefore more willing to take risk and more willing to sort of try to grab this lottery ticket as opposed to sort of make it over time slowly.

[Denitza Sokova]

So, so on that the ultra wealthy today versus the ultra wealthy back then. And reading the book, there's a lot of, you know, people have their yachts and in some cases actually sailing to work in lower Manhattan on the yacht.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Absolutely.

[Denitza Sokova]

Today, the wealthiest people today, how much different are their lives versus the ultra wealthy back then? And not with the technology, but I mean, what they were able to do versus what the normal person is able to do. I mean, you have billionaires going to space now.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think there is a distinction. But look, I think you go back and I think of J.P. morgan's son, he was building the biggest yacht at the time. People would have thought that's like the Gates or Bezos yacht, whatever yacht you're thinking of. I think that there was a distinction. But I remember having an interesting conversation, oddly enough, to drop a name with President Obama, interesting, maybe 2015, about the idea that. And I think this is true in the 20s, but really true, even just 25 years ago, I think CEOs, people of means, were oftentimes living in the same neighborhoods with the people who worked on the factory floor of their companies. And as a result, their kids went to the same schools and they went to the same temples and churches and ran into each other at the same restaurants and markets. And I think that there's a cohesion there that's important for our culture. And I think that increasingly that has come apart.

[Carol Massar]

We are talking with Andrew Ross Sork, and The book is 1929 Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How It Shattered a Nation. You know, politics got in the way of regulating banks and markets back then. And I think it was kind of fascinating to see some of that. Is there a parallel to that today? When you look at the activities Andrew coming out of the White House on things like cryptocurrencies, regulatory oversight, like, I just wonder how you see that part.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I'll give you actually a parallel that may seem not like a parallel, but to me is, which is we're all talking about right now the politicization, potentially and independence of the Federal Reserve. I actually remember, as I was working on this book, looking at the diaries of a lot of the people who worked at the Federal Reserve on the board, and it was still such a new institution born in 1913, that they were concerned about the political implications of either raising or lowering interest rates. At any given moment, they actually cared about the politics. Now, it wasn't that Hoover was telling them exactly what to do, but they were so scared, not that they were just going to get hauled up in front of Congress for making the wrong choice, but that the entire thing which people still called back then, the experiment at that point, that Congress could effectively disband this very idea. And so I raise that only because it's clear to me that actually the independence of the Fed matters. In fact, one of the reasons I think, that they didn't act more forcefully in 1929 and in 1930 and after that was in part because there was their own concern about the politics. Putting aside whether the White House was telling them one thing to do or the other.

[Carol Massar]

Do we have that today?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think less so, or at least up until recently, less so. I think that maybe in the same way that clearly those governors of the Fed back then were cognizant and nervous about the politics. I mean, I don't think this Fed thinks they're going to be disbanded, but I think that they're cognizant. They are very aware, very aware of what the President's saying, what their reputations are going to be like as a result, what people are saying about them, whether they have to do certain things to demonstrate their independence. I mean, that's the thing, the idea of demonstrating your independence effectively means. You might even make a decision that might not be the decision you'd otherwise make, but you're doing it for your own reputation. So, yes, I think that all of that is not healthy.

[Denitza Sokova]

Does the Fed keep that in a few months when Jay Powell is no longer Fed chair? And look, we can't see the future, we don't know who will be nominated.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I have a view that is maybe contrarian on this, in this space, which is there's a board and there's a number of people on that board. I've never believed that the entire Fed is controlled by one human being. It just isn't. And so I think it's very important who is running it. I'm not telling you it isn't, but I do think there will be people on that board, those who care also about their own independence, who will, by the way, another reason I think Jay Powell may ultimately Stay on that board for that reason.

[Carol Massar]

I love that you went there. Because I can't.

[Denitza Sokova]

We're hearing that a lot. Right.

[Carol Massar]

Because we keep waiting. We're going to expect to hear an announcement. It just keeps getting pushed off. And I just think there's. I love that.

[Greg Storr]

Oh, no, no.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

By the way, it's not that I think that J Bal is going to be in this role for forever. They're going to let him stay? No, but just that, you know, he can stay for another two years after this.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. On the board.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

On the board. And I think it is more likely that he will stay. And in fact, to the extent that this, the president would somehow like to use that spot for somebody that he'd like to nominate, I would argue this whole thing has backfired. In fact, I was talking to Harvey Schwartz at the New York Economic Club yesterday from Carlisle, and he made the point most people, most taxi drivers, people in the street didn't care about the idea of Fed independence at all. A week ago, they didn't even. I mean, this has been an academic conversation for the most part. Now it's like a thing. And people, constituents across the country all of a sudden care about this issue. They may start to call their Congress. I mean, it's very interesting what's happening.

[Denitza Sokova]

Yeah, I was actually, I've shared this story before, but I was with a friend Sunday night who, he follows the news, but he's not in financial news or anything. And he picks up his phone, he's like, have you seen this video from Jay Powell? I was like, why are you. Why do you care about Jay Powell? And that's how big of a deal it was over the weekend.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And so to me, that's why, in some ways, I think Harvey Schwartz is probably right. The idea of Fed independence may have actually become more important and potentially even stronger, at least in the short term.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, I want to ask you about the process. I remember reading Too Big to Fail. Loved it. And, you know, reported through it and was able to, I think, like, you talk to some of the people who were in the room when it all happened. I remember talking to John Mack on a panel, of course, formerly of Morgan Stanley, and getting that actual physical check from Mitsubishi. It felt like. It felt like, excuse me, you were in the room, like, the way I read it. So tell me how you did that. What was the box of things that you got? You're like, oh, my God.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So unfortunately, all of these people were not alive.

[Carol Massar]

No. What, Andrew, Really?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I spent about eight years. Really, you Know, just combing through boxes and boxes of materials, some at libraries, some from families that were involved in this, universities. I was able to convince, after a lot of knocking on doors, the Federal Reserve in New York to give me access to the board minutes. That was something that they haven't given out over the past 100 years. They, by the way, interesting, on their website today, you can get, you know, last month's board minutes, you still can't get the 1929 board minutes, but that sort of became a treasure map for me. But a lot, you know, when you see two people talking to each other in a room, what's oftentimes happening is I'm finding a series of depositions, for example, where Charlie Mitchell, who's the main character of the book, ran National City, which becomes Citigroup. You know, he would be interviewed in the deposition or in a civil case. There were also criminal cases where they would ask him, you know, where were you when X happened? He'd say, well, I was walking down the street and I got to 65th street and what did you say to so? And so? And I said such and such. And then they would interview his colleague and they'd say, well, you were standing on the corner. What did you say to him? And he would say, this is what I said. And then they'd interview his wife. And so when you though all of those quotes are real, and then oftentimes I would go and try to find the architecture plans or a photograph of the room so I could really try to put you in it. And I'd try to understand what the weather was that day and what, you know, whether it was light out or not. All of these sort of little things. So that again, if you're trying to, as a narrator, you can sort of feel like you're there, right.

[Denitza Sokova]

Was there a time when you were, you know, in some sort of archive over the last 10 years doing this, where you got this sort of treasure trove of correspondence between two people? And you were like, okay, this is. This is what I needed. This is the ticket. This is going to illuminate, you know.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

What it was one of the. It was like. Or is it just so peaceful? No, it was like it would either be raining like you were in the rainforest and it was fabulous, or just like the desert for months. And you'd. Because you'd go to these places looking for stuff, and then you'd go through all these boxes in. There'd be nothing. And then you'd be so depressed and then magically something would happen. I mean, I will say there was one moment for me still that I think was just like a true. Aha. Which is one of the main characters of the book is Carter Glass, of course, Glass Steagall. He was a senator in Virginia. And I think I had an impression going in, you know, today that bill is often held up by Elizabeth Warren, other people, as this sort of pure effort to really break up the banks for all the right reasons. And I found a trove of correspondence that showed, I think, maybe for the first time, that in fact, parts of that bill were actually written by another banker trying, frankly, to screw over JP Morgan. And you think to yourself about money in Washington and lobbying. And I thought, oh, the good old days. They didn't do things like that. And no different.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, exactly.

[Denitza Sokova]

I want to talk about Evangeline Adams.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Oh, I love Evangeline. I love Evangeline.

[Denitza Sokova]

She's the character that everybody wants to talk about. Well, we should explain who she is.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

For people like, Evangeline Adams is an astrologer. She had an office up at Carnegie hall on 57th street, and every banker in town would go visit with her. She had a newsletter. I mean, I like to think Dealbook is successful. She had a newsletter with 100,000 subscribers back then. People would go visit with her. They'd pay $50 an hour to sit with her, and she would ask her what's going on in the stock market, and she would tell them. They would go off and make their trades. And it was just. She's just an unbelievable character to even believe that something like that existed and that serious people were really engaged with what she was saying and doing.

[Denitza Sokova]

It was almost like she was a confidant for some of these people, which was pretty surprising to me.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I almost think of her as a psychiatrist, like, for a lot of therapists for people back then.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, just the similarity is like, I think about kind of the Wall street south that existed. Right. The folks in Florida, and we have that today, Palm Springs.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I mean, when I learned that Mar a Lago happened to be Owned by who? E.F. hutton, which was just such an indication of what was going on in America at that time. And by the way, E.F. hutton had also moved in, I don't know if you saw it, to the Plaza Hotel, the famous Oak Room, which is a bar right. During Prohibition, had become a brokerage house.

[Carol Massar]

So do you feel like you have a better understanding of what would cause, like Jamie Dimon said, we may not get another great financial crisis, but there will be a problem. Do you feel like, you know, I think because everybody keeps saying, could we get this again?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

Like, is it likely? Or do you get a better indication of like, what we should be watching out for in terms of what marks? Is it leveraging? Is it credit?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think it's always leverage. It's just a one word answer. It's probably boring. Leverage is the match that lights the fire every single time. You could have all the bad actors you want on stage doing all the bad greedy things you could possibly imagine, but there isn't the leverage piece. It's very hard to have a true systemic problem. You know, I was shocked to know that at the end of 1929, the stock market was only down 17%. And I actually think that was a head fake for a lot of politicians who were looking at the market and saying, oh, looks like things are better. But most people didn't appreciate that during the 50% downdraft that had happened prior to that. It wasn't just that equities had fallen 50% is that people had taken out loans oftentimes 10 to 1. So they didn't just owe what the equity was that had fallen. They were getting margin calls saying, you got to sell your house. And it's so. It's that. And I think we saw that again in 2008 with the subprime crisis. And I mean, you can. It repeats.

[Carol Massar]

Well, it's funny, you know, the Joe Kennedy thing about like, when is it your shoeshine guy, Right. And I always think about before the GFC being on a yoga retreat in Mexico and everyone was talking about buying real estate. And I thought this is like, this is just weird. Like those little snippets of things as an indicator that things are just exuberant, irrationally perhaps. Is that fair?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I think it's. I think, look, I think all of.

[Carol Massar]

These are, with all the data that we have, right, to look at the market.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

All of these are red flags being thrown on the field.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

But just because maybe I should say yellow flags being thrown on the field. And the question is, when do they turn red? And I think that's the hard part to know. You know, famously, here we are, started this segment coming out of Jamie Dimon's interview in 2008. His daughter had come to him as this was all happening and said, dad, what's a financial crisis? And he said, it's something that happens every seven or eight years. And so I think the truth is, well, check your calendar. We might be due.

[Denitza Sokova]

We're speaking With Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of 1929 Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How It Shattered a Nation. Does Herbert Hoover get a bad rap?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So I have maybe more empathy for Herbert Hoover than others. It's not that I think he made the right decisions. In fact, he made a series of very poor decisions. It's just that I think, at least historically, the narrative that's been described about him is that he didn't even understand what was happening. I think he understood very well what was happening. I think he had some of the wrong people in his ear, including Andrew Mellon, who was his Treasury Secretary, who had a terrible, unfortunately, relationship with early on. I think his decision on tariffs was completely misplaced. Why did he do that? He did that, by the way, for political reasons. Because in 1928, as he's running around the country desperate to get farmers to vote for him, he's pledging to them, vote for me. I'll help you.

[Carol Massar]

Wait, wait, wait. Are you talking about 2020?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And so. But when he hits, you know, and by the way, 1930 rolls around, every economist in America, all the bankers are saying, please don't do this, Mr. President. And he says, well, I have to do it because I pledged to these folks that I would. So you see these sort of repeat things. And it's not that he didn't know what he was doing. I think he just didn't understand. He was also, unfortunately for him, a terrible, terrible communicator.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

And I will say maybe this is true of all presidents. He had this view that he could somehow jawbone people into believing that things were better than they really were. And I think we're seeing that now, by the way, in the last administration. That is a bipartisan tactic by the White House.

[Carol Massar]

What's your biggest takeaway from doing this? My understanding is you wanted to do this because people used to ask you, you know, 1929 versus 2008. But you tell me, what did you get out of doing this?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I mean, selfishly, I felt like I now understood what actually happened. Just as a student of history, I actually just genuinely wanted to really get it. I wanted to know who the people were. I wanted to understand their incentives, what their motives were, why they were doing what they did. And I think ultimately the truth is that we are all human beings. Maybe it's fomo, maybe it's envy, maybe we all want more, and that's, for better or worse, what seems to drive people? And then the question is, when people get a little too confident, you know, can you have the humility effectively to step back and realize that maybe that confidence could be misplaced.

[Denitza Sokova]

You write that the antidote to irrational exuberance is not regulation by itself nor skepticism, but humility. The humility to know that no system is foolproof, no market fully rational, and no generation exempt. Do you see that humility out there today?

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

I said it better in the book than I just said it now.

[Denitza Sokova]

And we have the full screen for it, too.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Do I see that humility today? I see that humility among some. Look, I think, you know, we also talked about Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and David Rubenstein. We're talking about Warren Buffett. I think Warren Buffett has a remarkable humility. And when it comes to sort of even his own confidence, he has humility about that. I think there are a number of business leaders and investors who absolutely do. And then there's a number of business leaders and operators and investors who clearly don't. And I think anybody who walks in the door and sits down at this table and can tell you exactly what or thinks they can tell you exactly what's going to happen probably wins.

[Carol Massar]

I think we have to leave it there. Thank you so much.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thank you so much for having me. This was a ball.

[Kate Crater]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

We really appreciate it. Andrew Ross Sorkin the book is 1929 Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How It Shattered a Nation. I learned a lot.

[Greg Storr]

Yeah.

[Denitza Sokova]

Andrew, thanks so much for joining us.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Thank you.

[Denitza Sokova]

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast.

[Walton Goggins]

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch.

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Us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

Plenty ahead in our second hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Businessweek, including skiing outdoors and indoors with the CEO of Snow Partners. You've done both, haven't you?

[Denitza Sokova]

I have, yeah. I've been to big snow at the American Dream Mall once.

[Carol Massar]

Did you actually ski down the slope?

[Denitza Sokova]

I did, yeah. But it's a great place to bring kids. Yeah, not super steep and very short of course. But guess what? It's open in the summer and it was fun.

[Walton Goggins]

It was fun.

[Denitza Sokova]

Never not fun. Plus from Japanese prime beef, star chefs working the counter and large format martinis, we've got the most exciting US Restaurants to check out this year.

[Carol Massar]

Also why some top chefs are turning your leftovers into tasting menu gold. First up this hour, prediction markets. They are being fueled by platforms such as Kelsey and Polymarket where users make predictions tied to real world outcomes. But you can kind of bet on just about everything.

[Denitza Sokova]

The idea is simple. Prices move based on collective relief, turning crowd sentiment in a real time forecast and sometimes big money on the line.

[Carol Massar]

A recent Bloomberg big take highlighted how prediction platforms are pitching themselves as tools for insight. But eye catching bets on real world events are raising questions about access, integrity and regulation.

[Denitza Sokova]

Bloomberg spoke with economists, U.S. politicians and heads of trading firms and hedge funds to understand really what's at stake in the prediction markets boom. Denita Sokova and Lydia Bayoud are part of the team behind the story. Denita is Bloomberg News Cross Asset reporter Lydia Is Bloomberg News financial regulations reporter Denise here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker studio. Lydia joins us from Bloomberg's Washington D.C. bureau. Lydia, I want to start with you in Washington because you cover financial regulations, prediction markets. Is it fair to call it gambling?

[Lydia Bayoud]

I think these days people increasingly are seeing a blurred line there.

[Denitza Sokova]

The.

[Lydia Bayoud]

To your point about marketing speak, the. The companies are very keen to describe themselves one way, but certainly within Washington, I don't think a lot of people are seeing much of a difference. And for sure in the sports gaming world, they see. See them as direct competitors.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, it's interesting. Gaming, gambling, what exactly is this? Denisa, come on in. For those who maybe have been living under a rock, which is kind of fine, I like to kind of hibernate every once in a while, remind us what these prediction markets are all about and who are the big players.

[Denita Sokova]

Yeah, 2025 was the year of prediction markets. We had two big firms kind of dominate the space, of course, Kalshi and Polymarket. Their valuation went through the roof. They started from like 1 to 2 billion and both ended the year in the double digits of billions. So really, really rapid growth. And we're seeing not only those tech Silicon Valley names, we're seeing a lot of traditional finance names, we're seeing cme. We're seeing a lot of those traditional finance players getting involved in the space. So clearly this is interesting. More beyond Silicon Valley. The volumes are crazy.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So.

[Carol Massar]

So, but tell us how it works. Like can Tim or I, can we go out and place the bet? Like how. Who determines who can do what on the platform?

[Denita Sokova]

Super simple, super easy. So obviously sports betting, you have to be 21 for this. 18 is enough. It's very accessible. You go, the bet is like as cheap as like a few cents or a door. And you just go and create it. Very simple.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, you can create the bet.

[Denita Sokova]

No, you cannot create the bet. You can place.

[Carol Massar]

That's what I'm asking.

[Denita Sokova]

Yeah, there is a way to, to claim a market, but of course it's up to the platform to create. But as we have seen in recent months, there is a lot of variety of bets on things that you know anywhere else you can bet from the bet on Nicolas Maduro being outed to any type of pop culture thing.

[Denitza Sokova]

And any top artist on Spotify this year is on coffee right now.

[Denita Sokova]

Of course, that's very popular. Any type of mention market. People are watching like politicians talk on TV and betting on every word they say, every twist. Like people are even making fun of this. We famously had the coinbase CEO knowing that people are watching what he says on the earnings calls. So he was, he was crashing the market.

[Denitza Sokova]

So that's where I want to bring in Lydia. Because when you're in a world, Lydia Bayard, where there is one person in control, like a CEO of a company like Elon Musk, if the number of tweets that he sends between a certain period of time, that's a bet on Polymarket right now, or prediction on polymarket that one can make, what is the slippery slope that opens when one person is in control of the outcome here?

[Lydia Bayoud]

So that's something that I think regulators and policymakers are really grappling with. Particularly I think the Maduro example that we highlight in the story has really made that so salient for everyone right now. Generally, federal rules prohibit federal employees from trading on non public information for their own financial game. I think Representative Richie Torres is planning to introduce legislation, if he hasn't already this week, that would like very clearly prohibit that type of trading on prediction markets. But really we're kind of facing like a different regime compared to how I think a lot of people think about insider trading that is regulated in equity equities markets or markets overseen by the securities and Exchange Commission. Because you know, if you're in the derivative space and you are an energy producer, an agriculture producer, you're expected to trade on knowing, you know, my crop's really great this year or we're pumping so much oil and gas out of, out of the ground, you know, I'm able to hedge my position and sort of let my knowledge that I have inform both me and then the market. You know, there's kind of a market utility argument that is made in those traditional markets and we're seeing that again, sort of these blurred lines shift into prediction markets and people sort of grappling like, okay, well what's okay insider information like what benefits everyone to have insiders trading and kind of, you know, as they like to say, drawing on the wisdom of the crowd and doing price improvement.

[Carol Massar]

But so not exactly truth machines, right?

[Lydia Bayoud]

Well that is the big debate about how are you going to draw that line about, you know, if you are Elon Musk in your, there are mention markets and what you might say during your, you know, not to pick on Elon anyone, any executive, right. You're going to, you know, there are mention markets and what you might say in your quarterly call. Do you swing a market just for funsies? Do you swing it knowing that, you know, your buddy's buddy's buddy might have some money riding on the line and then how does anyone catch that? Should they be catching it? There's so many open policy questions that are being asked I think around Washington right now because of these markets.

[Denitza Sokova]

Yeah there's an interesting, you know I'm just going through call she you could spend I know know both of you did this. Like you can spend hours going through this but like does it really serve the markets and eat ask if will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey be married before January 1st.

[Carol Massar]

That's important stuff.

[Denita Sokova]

It is important, important stuff. We had a lot of Bloomberg headlines on this as well. But did we. But it is important. So what a lot of those prediction micro believers says we're going to bring a lot of people through sports. So for example Koshi has 90% of their volumes very often coming from sports. So it's pretty hard to make the argument that this is a truth machine at the moment. But what some people hope and believe is that eventually some of the those casino elements, some of those betting elements we will bring people who want to bet on things like economic data. Yeah, things like maybe people want to hedge. Like the hedging scenario is something that has come up a lot. Talking to people it seems like it's not coming anytime soon. But people are saying oh maybe I want to hedge the weather in Florida. Maybe I have a house and I can buy insurance.

[Carol Massar]

Well I don't understand that.

[Denitza Sokova]

They keep going on topic and I'm trying to take them off topic. Like here's another one, for example, what will Rachel Maddows say during Jimmy Kimmel Live?

[Denita Sokova]

Right.

[Denitza Sokova]

Ok. That's a classic measurement Epstein. Corrupt slash corruption. Ice, Russia, Ukraine, affordable affordability, health care.

[Carol Massar]

All right, but there's serious stuff like the Fed decision in January. 89% say the Fed will make actually.

[Denitza Sokova]

Helpful for what we do.

[Carol Massar]

And we talked about this during elections and different things for sure.

[Denita Sokova]

Elections have proven to be one pretty.

[Carol Massar]

Good help me understand though and well you know Lydia, come on back in here. One of the things I'm curious about is like who is checking? Who is making these trades? Is Kalshee or is Polymarket? Are they actually checking? Especially when it could be potentially insider trading. Do they know exactly who's making these trades? Are they doing due diligence?

[Lydia Bayoud]

So these exchanges are structured as self regulatory organizations. So they're supposed to kind of self monitor monitor trades and root out any potential for market manipulation. Again the sort of where you draw the line between what's okay and what's not okay on insider trading that's a judgment call, I think, except in all but the most clear cut instances. But you know, exchanges can self report information to the cftc. The CFTC can look into it. Again, it operates differently than the securities Exchange Commission.

[Carol Massar]

But what's the bandwidth for regulators to, to want to take this on?

[Lydia Bayoud]

The CFTC is chronically underfunded. They have I think roughly 500 staff. The SEC has four, four or five times, maybe 10 times that number, not quite. But they are understaffed for the task at hand. And there are more applicants. I mean I think we mentioned in the story that there are, there's a lot of interest driven heavily by Sense Sports Trading, but also in the economics, also in other spaces. And so they're kind of underwater in terms of all that there is to do for market demand for this space. So I think a lot of people are wondering what this CFTC will do. But if we look at the new chairman, Michael Selig, when he was an attorney in private practice, he wrote a comment letter that was was pushing back during the Biden administration on any effort to rein in sports prediction markets, for example, or really most prediction markets. So I think you've got someone who's very, you know, he said he's going to defer to the courts on how the courts might eventually rule on this topic. But at least when he was an attorney representing clients, he was very much in favor of them.

[Denitza Sokova]

Before we let you guys go, Denitza, if we think about the universe of prediction markets Robinhood's getting into to it call she and Polymarket are the big ones and they count, I think a Trump as advisors to both of those. Yeah. Are they, are these all regulated the same way or is one regulated differently than the others?

[Denita Sokova]

So also obviously they have the Trump as advisor and Trump Media is looking into launching a prediction and a lot of the sports betting companies are looking to also get into prediction market. The way so Kalshi so far is obviously under the cftc. Polymarket is just entering the US they have this beta test so they're only onboarding some users. So currently most of the bets on Polymarket are actually in this weird regulatory space where a lot of them are coming from abroad and isn't necessarily regulated under the cftc. We've seen very different decisions. For example, there was a market connected with the United Care CEO killing and CFTC asked Kaushi to remove that market. But Polymarket who is not under that jurisdiction, actually kept the market. So you can see there are very different outcomes depending on the Regulation.

[Carol Massar]

Will a human land on Mars before California starts a high speed rail? 19% chance costs 20 cents for yes, 85 cents for no.

[Denitza Sokova]

Well, what counts as the high speed rail?

[Carol Massar]

I'm just.

[Denitza Sokova]

Is it just like I'm just reading here? Okay.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This is the Bloomberg Business Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.

[Walton Goggins]

11:30.

[Carol Massar]

Yes, ski season is underway. This winter snow story, though, has been all over the map and as you keep reminding me, Tim, not so great.

[Denitza Sokova]

Yeah, the Rockies, they've been off to a slow dry slide starts. Snowpacks near historic lows before recent storms helped open a little more terrain. The Northeast has seen more mixed conditions. Parts of Canada and Vermont are reporting solid powder days. But for those folks who went out west over the holidays, they were so disappointed.

[Carol Massar]

That's a bummer. That's a big bummer. But we have, I feel like we've been repeatedly or often more often in the last few years hearing that story. All right, that's where Snow Partners comes in. With an indoor ski resort, the company is keeping the slopes open year round no matter what the weather does outside. Joe Hessian is founder and CEO of Snow Partners. He joined us from the company's indoor ski slope, the Big Snow American Dream in New Jersey.

[Greg Storr]

Yeah, we're having an amazing start to the season. The whole Northeast really is really having one of the best seasons in a few years. We have a La Nina type of weather pattern, which typically, you know, means cold early. So the whole east coast is good. Mountain Creek is doing fantastic. We're going to have full connection of all of four of our peaks by holiday week, which that's how we measure a great season. So it's early, but it's looking really good and we're really excited about it.

[Carol Massar]

How many people are showing up? I'm just curious about the kind of demand. You know, we are watching the consumer so closely and I'm just curious, what are you seeing?

[Greg Storr]

Yeah, that's a great question. You know, we're seeing great visits because of the great snow and the great conditions. And I'll be honest, we talk a lot about what's the economic impact of skiing. You know, many people, you know, sometimes it's a higher expensive sport. And I'll tell you, in my experience in industry in 25, 30 years, weather is the biggest indicator. If you have good weather, you have great visits. If you have bad weather. I've lived through the pandemic. I've. I've. I've lived through the Great Recession. And when you have great weather, you have great visits. And we're seeing that on the east coast overall right now.

[Denitza Sokova]

That's good. I mean, that's so here.

[Carol Massar]

So your bottom line saying it's weather related, it has nothing to do with the economy.

[Greg Storr]

Yeah. I spend more time in the fall thinking about, you know, how are the squirrels acting and the farmers Almanac and things like that. I'm more worried about that than the economic situation in the country.

[Denitza Sokova]

Okay. So, Joe, you've got an interesting business because you operate these two resorts, one of them outdoor, one of them indoor. I mean, the one that you're in right now, I've been to this one, and it's a great place with little kids to like, introduce them to skiing and to teach them talk a little bit about what's going on at the American Dream Mall and just the stability there. Because there are a lot of questions about the mall and the financial health of the mall. But are you guys okay even if the mall as a whole is. Is having a challenge?

[Greg Storr]

Yeah, that's also a great question. We've been here since December 5, 2019. We were one of the first tenants to work with Triple Five, the people who operate the mall. And we've been successful every year since 2019. We've had constant growth from a revenue side. Our first year of opening, obviously within six months, was Covid and the Pandemic. So we were a little slow on getting groups up, but now we have great group visitation. I'm very happy with the performance of Big Snow. And this is going into our busiest time of year where we're going to see really great visits the mall overall. It's Funny, back in 2018, I got asked that question all the time, and you might have been the first person to ask me that question in the last two years. Because as you go through the mall, especially this time of year, it's. It's really. There's a lot going on here. A lot of entertainment. A lot of new tenants have opened up. We're really happy here. And. And we're really happy about the business we have here as well.

[Denitza Sokova]

Okay, cool. So where are the people? And that's 365. You're there. You guys are open every day?

[Greg Storr]

Every day? Well, we wait 364. We close on Thanksgiving day.

[Denitza Sokova]

Okay. That's the one day you're not open. How's Demand there looking, because it doesn't matter in terms of snow because it's all man made, it's indoor. What does demand look like in terms of, is it cyclical? Is it stronger now than it was? Because that could give us a good barometer of the, the economy.

[Greg Storr]

The most interesting thing about operating a snow dome that's open year round is everyone thinks that it's going to be busy in the summertime because that's when other resorts are closed. But we're busier in the winter when they could go to other places. So when winter is on people's mind, when snow is in the market, you know, right now we've had snow in Central park already this year, so that drives tons of visitation because when it's cold outside, people just think winter, they think skiing. And that's where most of it comes. Springtime is our slowest time of year, summer slightly busier than spring. And then fall starts to ramp up with people from all over the country coming to get their first turns on stone.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, Joe, I'm curious, you know, what your cost equation is? You know, we're in an environment where people still talk about everything costing a lot. We were talking with folks representative of the restaurant industry, how they are dealing with labor and food and lack of immigration, and that is certainly impacting them. What are your, what's your cost structure look like right now?

[Greg Storr]

Yeah, I think for us, definitely things when utilities get more expensive here, Big Snow, that's definitely a consideration for us as far as labor. You know, we've always, since we opened, we strive to be one of the top workplaces. So we've always paid a very competitive hourly wage to our team here. And then for as far as guests and what it cost at Big Snow specifically, we've tried really hard to take the barriers of why people don't try skiing in the first place. And we tried to take those barriers out of the equation. And those barriers are distance. So we're really close to the population here at Big Snow, but it's also the price of entry. So. So you can come and have a package for, you know, well under a hundred dollars. And that gets you a lesson, gets you rentals, all the equipment, outerwear, jacket and your access on snow. So. But cost has definitely increased over the years and that's something that we're always tracking to figure out how to become more efficient. For sure.

[Denitza Sokova]

There's been so much consolidation in the ski industry. You have Alterra Mountain Company with the Icon Pass. You have Vail Resorts with The Epic Pass, which kind of invented that in the early 2000s. Rob Katz and Vail doing that. You guys are independent, though. How tough is it to be an independent operator in 2025, 2026?

[Greg Storr]

I think it depends on the geography and where you're located. We're very lucky that both of our businesses are directly related to population. We do a lot of new visits. We have a lot of core local customers in Mountain Creek. Up here in New Jersey, we have. This is our 60th year of operation, so we have really good communities. People that learned to ski there in the 60s are now taking their grandkids to learn to ski. So for us, it hasn't impacted us, but people aren't deciding which way to go. And that actually brings up a really interesting point of, you know, Vail, a huge fan of what Vail has done. Huge fan of what Altera's done. We've also seen a lot of independence. Resorts come together with things like the Indy Pass. We actually released a new product this year with a bunch of partners called the Snow Triple Play. Because what we found out that we are really introducing a lot of people to the sport and we can kind of give those people a warm handoff to other resorts all across the Northeast.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So.

[Greg Storr]

So we've seen a lot of success in that.

[Carol Massar]

It's really fascinating, kind of going through all your business. You've got, I guess it looks like an app manage your resort from an iPhone. I mean, talk to us about, like, what the business strategy is and where's the real growth? Is it, you know, creating more of what's behind you in other places around the country or even around the world? I mean, where's the growth? Or how do you create either organic growth or acquisition growth for your business?

[Greg Storr]

Yeah, that's. So when you look at Big Snow, we certainly want to expand and build more Big Snows. And I think the reason that is such a great opportunity is because you can design them to a spec, you can roll them out, and you can operate them really efficiently. Kind of like the Jack Welch variation is evil situation. Without the variation, we can really figure out how to operate at efficiency. So Big Snow is really important in our future plan. But we are most excited about Snow Cloud, which you mentioned the technology and you also mentioned earlier, things like the Epic Pass and Icon Pass. Over the last decade, we've seen massive innovations with those past products. But I think the next 10 years, the disruption in the ski space is going to be driven by technology. I think it's going to Be the way I think it's going to be the way resorts operate their business, the platforms they use to relate with customers. And I think the biggest change is about to happen, which we've been excited about, is the AI piece, which I know a lot of people talk about AI and they don't see what that's going to look like and how that's going to feel and the way we see it. And what we've been building our platform to do is you should be dealing with your own family's agent, booking anything. I think that's the way this is going is everyone will have their own agent.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Greg Storr]

And if you want to go skiing, you're going to say to your agent, I want to go skiing, where should I go? That agent will then broker with agents at different resorts. And I think it's going to completely change the way people plan trips, the way they buy passes. So I think in many ways what we've seen with the Epic Pass and Icon pass and other passes, we're going to see a complete change in the relationship of how people buy products, plan experiences. And it's all going to be hyper personalized. Like. Yeah, I have this thing I would say is like have my people call your people. That's like the joke that they've always said on cartoons. And that's the way I think people are going to plan their trips.

[Carol Massar]

You're talking about agentic AI, right?

[Greg Storr]

Absolutely, yeah. Agency where everyone has their agent. Each business has their own agent. Different. Like I see a world in the next few years where it's not just Epic and Icon as the leaders. I think there's probably 20, 30, 40 flavors. The technology we're building allows any resorts to team up together, have different segmentations. It's really exciting.

[Carol Massar]

I totally get it. Hey, just one thing I want to ask you. Climate change, is that creating opportunities for you, especially when it comes to inside kind of ski experiences.

[Greg Storr]

You know, I think it's definitely easier to operate a business when you don't have to worry about the weather. We have our outdoor resort and our indoor resort and it's really easy to, you know, what's interesting about operating big snow is it's kind of like retail where I can literally predict what we're going to do almost every day because of it's so consistent when you have, you know, the changes in the climate and you have different variables. You need to be ready for what if we have a slow start like we're seeing out in the west right now, and I always Remind people that you have to have a good pre sold strategy. So Vail has done great with the Epic Pass. They've sold them. Same thing with Altera with Icon Pass Resorts know how to make sure they protect themselves early. And I always tell the skiers who have I have a bunch of trips planned out west this year. Don't judge the early start for the whole season. This could still be an amazing season out west. I was at Jackson Hole on Monday. They're getting a massive storm this weekend. So, you know, I wouldn't give up on the season in the west. I think we have good, good ski days ahead of us.

[Denitza Sokova]

Hey Joe, to Carol's point, about other parts of the business, if we think about Snow Partners and the Umbrella umbrella organization, how much revenue comes from actual operations of Big Snow and Mountain Creek versus Soundcloud Snow operating business and Snow Go the bikes that you manufacture and sell.

[Greg Storr]

Yeah. So revenue wise we're probably so high level. Think of like 100 million in revenue. We're doing 60 in operations at this point. The rest of it is primarily focused in Snow Cloud or software technology. As far as where the growth opportunity we think we have, we think Snow Cloud is going to be the shopify of experiences. We work with stripe on our, on our platform. We're really lucky to be one of their category leaders in the space that we're in. And I think we can see growth with Snow Cloud that's not just in the ski business, but water parks, amusement parks. I feel a way that Shopify has opened up the doors for people who want to be in retail of all sizes and levels. I think that's what we're truly trying to build with Snow Cloud.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

So.

[Greg Storr]

So that right now is not our largest business, but I always tell people is by far our largest opportunity.

[Carol Massar]

Just going to say I love the Mountain Creek water park. Did that with my daughter. So it's pretty wild. It's pretty wild. I actually had the wind kicked out of me out of the rides, but it was a lot of fun.

[Denitza Sokova]

That's how you know there's no water.

[Greg Storr]

Pike like, like that in the world. One of a kind.

[Denitza Sokova]

Crazy Joe, appreciate you joining us. Joe Hessian, founder and CEO of Snow Partners. I'm going to see him on the slopes.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, you should try the water park.

[Kate Crater]

It's wild.

[Denitza Sokova]

Cool. Take care. All right, we'll see you later. Joe Hessian, founder and CEO at Snow.

[Walton Goggins]

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube A new year.

[Carol Massar]

And get ready to step up to the counter for some of the year's most anticipated cooking. We're diving into the US Dining scene and things are getting deliciously creative.

[Denitza Sokova]

From some of the most exciting new restaurants opening this year to turning waste into tasting menu experiences with more as Bloomberg Pursuits Food Editor Kate Crater Kate When I was reading the story about the counters, I brought myself back to this fall late summer. Sebastian, who's in the control room right now, Carol, who's right across from me next to you. We were in Southern California. We were in Orange county, and my sister found out we were there. She said, you have to go to this one restaurant. So I was so excited because whenever we travel together, we try to do, like, one really nice meal together. It's like a highlight. We go to the restaurant, we walk in, it's counter service. And we all look at each other and we say, this is not the experience we want tonight. Did we make a horrible mistake?

[Kate Crater]

So that was 2025. And maybe your reaction will be a little bit different if that scene is recreated in 2026, because it is going to be a big trend. There's so many fun restaurants coming opening around the country this year. One of the big trends that we're seeing is counter service, where you do have to do some of the work yourself. You walk up, you order, you should be sitting at a table. If they had you standing up, then that's not ideal.

[Denitza Sokova]

But, oh, we just walked in and walked out.

[Carol Massar]

We just felt like it was not gonna be as nice.

[Kate Crater]

Well, it's not. There's definitely some. There's definitely something missing from it. But the reality is, I mean, you guys go out to eat, you know what a good restaurant is. Eating out has gotten so expensive. It's crazy. I mean, it's been coming and coming for a while, but especially here in New York, you know what? You can't, like, walk into a restaurant and order a burger and a drink and not get a check that's like a hundred dollars. You know, it's crazy. It's crazy. I mean, it's based on reality because, as you know, food prices are going up, labor prices are going up, real estate isn't free in New York City. So there's a lot of factors going into it, but nonetheless, I think people. I think the sticker shock of it is starting to set in. And certainly, you know, at the margins for restaurateurs are slimmer than ever. So they are like, huh, how do we make this? How can we cut costs? And so what they are doing now is they're increasingly looking at counter options because it also fits, like, the comfort food mentality. So it allows you to cut back on labor a little bit. It can streamline a restaurant design because you don't need, like, a lot of places to set up to have, like, servers putting things down. So, yes, I Predict that in 2026, you'll walk up to a counter because they're also going to be really cool. In Chicago this guy who's like a barbecue champion, is opening Fatback in New Orleans. Alon Shia, who's a really celebrated Israeli chef, is opening Safta's Table and he's going to serve food all day long. And then it's also happening in D.C. a place called Rye Bunny. It used to be a restaurant called Tail Up Goat. That was fantastic. It opened a decade ago and these are some very talented restaurateurs. And now they're saying, you know what, let's go to a different model that's sort of like modern American cooking, seasonal menus, and it's going to allow us to keep our prices a little bit stable instead of ramping up.

[Carol Massar]

I loved reading the decor of this one. Rag rugs, patchwork tile floors and string lights. Like it's just like it just sounds charming.

[Kate Crater]

Carol, you're gonna walk in there and not walk out. I predict. I. That's my prediction for 2026.

[Carol Massar]

The one thing I also thought was kind of interesting is it mays in Denver. It's 18 course menu and you move through a series of spaces. I thought that was also kind of interesting.

[Kate Crater]

Isn't that cool? Yeah, I mean that is. Don't think like tasting menus are dead and gone and that nobody's. You're only gonna be able to eat at a counter. There will be, there will be opportunities for you to sit down and have some really elite kind of food. And that's happening in Denver. This couple, Johnny Curell, I think and his wife have really spotlighted Mexican food and authentic ingredients. And so they're obsessed with maize and corn and so they have started. It's sort of an experiential dining experience and I think that's really fun. That makes me want to go to Denver to eat.

[Denitza Sokova]

I want to talk about everything. Omakase. I feel like you're listening no matter where you go, where you're at.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Business week daily podcast. Catch us live day afternoons from 2 to 5 or an experience Apple, Carplay and Android.

[Denitza Sokova]

Does that continue in the 2026?

[Kate Crater]

I think it does live on a lot. There's still like, there's still a sort of faucet of high end Japanese sushi masters and Wagu chefs who see a lot of opportunity in New York and Miami too and who are opening restaurants here. So you will continue to see Omakase. I will say I'm. I'm really eyes on. I think people are just are cutting back on going out and. Or will cut back on going out and so whereas like a Year or two ago, we would see some of these omakases priced at like 495 or 595. And that means you're spending like $800, right?

[Rick Waldenberg]

Oh, my God.

[Kate Crater]

Tim, if you take me and Carol out, you like, get ready.

[Denitza Sokova]

No, I have to tell you guys, I was in San Francisco last year for a week and one of the things I wanted to do was just go to some good restaurants. So I texted a friend in San Francisco, I said, I just want really good sushi. Where do I go tonight? And he texted me a list of like five places. I looked up every single one of them. They were all omakase only. And let's just say my managers would not have been happy had I expensed a meal at those places.

[Kate Crater]

No, I think so. I think now, I mean, it's still. Obviously you're going to spend three figures on. On these menus, but I'm seeing more, a little bit more like 295 and low 3 hundreds, which is still so much money, but it's like, it's like 2/3 of what it.

[Denitza Sokova]

I think you're going to be taking us there, Kate.

[Kate Crater]

Let's go.

[Carol Massar]

Well, you know, gosh, I feel like, Kate, we've talked to you. I just want to just go big broad, if I can for a moment, because I feel like we've talked with you through so many different cycles and we've had good cycles and then we had the pandemic and everybody had a shift. Like, what was last year like? And where is the restaurant industry in some of these major cities?

[Kate Crater]

It's such a good question, Carol. I think if I look especially at New York City, because that's my home and it's the most exciting food scene in the world, I will say that I think everything was on the front burner. There was so much. There was so much happening with like, go here, do this, go to the corner store, go to Teresi. You know, it was like, it was seemed like a constant highlight reel. And there was still like so much of that YOLO mentality where you really feel like, I'm gonna do this, like, I've got to have like a corn experience tasting menu. And I think this year, the year that we step back a little bit and things dial down a little bit, New York City feels a little bit more lived in.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Kate Crater]

And you go like, you keep supporting. Something that happened right after the pandemic is that people really supported their neighborhood restaurants. And then there was all this pent up energy, though, and so it went from maybe supporting your local restaurants, but really going big to the places that you saw over social media. And I think that calms down now. I think the places the biggest restaurant opening, and it's not on our list because it opened at the end of last year, but it's called Stars. It's a little wine bar. It's on East 12th Street. It's like a horseshoe counter. It was apparently inspired by Grand Central Oyster Bar, except that it only seats, like, 20. Only 20 people can fit in it. But it's a wine bar with a fantastic array of snacks. They have these deviled eggs that have been getting a lot of attention with these little pastry stars on them. They have a shrimp sandwich that's bananas with, like, a really good crusty, you know, crusty, buttered, griddled bread on it, surrounding these, like, plump shrimp. And you can walk out of there for, like, maybe a hundred dollars. Like, Maybe you'll spend $100 if you're drinking some really good glasses of wine, but you can also go out of there for, like, 60 bucks and then go have dinner somewhere else or go home and cook your dinner. And I think we've written about that book before, but wine bars are, like, here to meet your economic moment. And New York City hasn't done wine bar so well. And now it starts now.

[Denitza Sokova]

Can we talk some trash?

[Carol Massar]

Yes. Love this story.

[Denita Sokova]

Yay.

[Kate Crater]

Love talking trash.

[Carol Massar]

Love this story.

[Denitza Sokova]

I was reading this. This story by Emma Court. Kate Crater edited it, and I was reading it. I was thinking this is so up Carol's alley, because Carol's not somebody to waste anything.

[Carol Massar]

We try not, but we talk a.

[Denitza Sokova]

Lot about just personally how much food goes to waste. Like, you know, spoiled salad in the fridge ends up. We end up throwing it away. This a huge issue for larger establishments like hotels and large restaurants, too.

[Kate Crater]

Food waste is. I'm so with you, Carol. It makes me nuts. And it gets wasted on every level. It gets wasted in your home, but it especially gets wasted in kitchens and, you know, commercial operations. And it happens on every. It happens at every stage. It happens when you're preparing food and you throw out trimmings. There's plate waste that also has a lot to do with it. I'm interested to see how that evolves with. As more and more people are on, like, GLP1 drugs and. Because portions, I think, are becoming, like, a little bit more reasonable. Because here, at least here in the US and so hopefully that plate waste is going to decrease a bit. But there is a restaurant in The East Village called Hag's, that you can pay up to $160 for your food. But the chef specializes in maximizing her trimmings. Like, she grows mushrooms. She uses the compost in her kitchen to grow mushrooms that feature in a beautiful risotto. And she's using squash trimmings to make the soup. And every single thing that you can think about that you and I might throw in the garbage, she's like, nope, I see other opportunities.

[Carol Massar]

I think it's brilliant because if you think about sometimes to create something, especially at a really nice restaurant, how much food, either they're cutting away or so on. But it's also like this whole area of companies that have come up, if you will, to help these restaurants monitor their food and so on and so forth. So there's this whole other industry, cottage industry, or whatever you want to call it, that has popped up.

[Kate Crater]

Well, it's so smart. Yeah. There's a company called Winnow that analyzes. It uses some proprietary technology to analyze the trash and see what you might be able to use. And I think they've been working with some big hotel groups like the Four Seasons and now the Four Seasons Houston, I think was making like a quesadilla or something that ended up being 70% waste. That isn't that fantastic? Like, it saves them money. It's better for the environment, all of it.

[Denitza Sokova]

It's not just customer plates, though, that where the waste comes from. That's about a third of the waste, according to this story. This is the Waste and Resources Action program data. But 45% of it comes from food prep. 21% comes from spoilage and the food prep side of things. It kind of makes sense in fine dining because it's like they want to present like, the most ideal part of whatever they're cutting, whether that's a piece of meat, whether it's a filet, or whether it's a fruit or vegetable.

[Kate Crater]

Right? No, exactly. But I think that the onus of that, that certainly was the case, like, a decade ago. And now, especially at fine dining, because the margins are so thin, they really have to figure out something else to do with, like that. With a less attractive piece of duck that's not going on the customer's plate.

[Denitza Sokova]

Well, are we going to start accepting that as customers? Like, what do you do with that piece of duck if the person who walks into that fine dining establishment doesn't want that?

[Kate Crater]

I mean, it depends. There's different categories of diners. And, you know, there's some people who are like, oh, no. Like, how could you? Oh, but I think now there's so much, you know, people love something imperfect because it generally tells a story. And I think chefs and restaurants. Yeah, me and you, Carol. But I think people, most diners, especially if they're like Gen Z or are not necessarily looking for the exact perfect slice of Wagyu.

[Carol Massar]

Love, love, love this story. Actually, there's a bunch of people in this story I want to get on.

[Kate Crater]

RA to talk about the stuff.

[Denitza Sokova]

Will they bring some food?

[Kate Crater]

I don't need the mushroom part of the deal.

[Carol Massar]

You know, Tim eats during our show.

[Denitza Sokova]

The mushroom powder. I don't need the mushroom powder. But anything else you can let them.

[Kate Crater]

Know that can be part of your rider.

[Carol Massar]

Counter table.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Tim's always eating.

[Carol Massar]

Yummy, yummy. Kate, thank you so much. Great to have you in town too.

[Denitza Sokova]

That's Kate Crater, Bloomberg Pursuits food editor.

[Carol Massar]

And that wraps up our weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week on Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Denitza Sokova]

I'm Tim Stanweck and he's hungry.

[Carol Massar]

And I'm Carol Massar. I might be hungry too. Have a great and safe weekend, everyone.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday after afternoons from 2.

[Walton Goggins]

To 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Tim Stenbeck]

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[Denitza Sokova]

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[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

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[Greg Storr]

Also made with some Daisy Sour Cream.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

Daisy Sour Cream is a long standing.

[Greg Storr]

Staple for Taco Tuesday.

[Andrew Ross Sorkin]

They also have Daisy Ranch dip. So get out there and give Daisy French Onion Dip a try. You will not regret it.