Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - July 17th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend – July 17, 2026

Main Theme:
This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend, hosted by Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec, spans the rapidly evolving intersection of global business, finance, and technology. It covers urgent geopolitical developments, market-moving corporate catalysts, the rise of compute futures as a novel asset class, and a surprisingly nuanced cultural debate: are shorts finally acceptable in the corporate office?

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1. Global Events & Market Backdrop

Timestamps: 02:02 – 03:37

• Geopolitics in Focus:

  • U.S. airstrikes in Iran escalate tensions, with President Trump declaring an ongoing campaign until Iranian hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz cease.
    • “The fragile June ceasefire between the United States and Iran hit a major roadblock…” – Carol Massar (02:02)
  • Markets are jittery, with strikes ongoing as the episode wrapped.

• Wall Street Earnings & Fed Scrutiny:

  • Major Wall Street banks report “superlative” earnings.
    • “Let’s just say there were lots of superlatives when it came to many of the results.” – Carol Massar (02:39)
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces tough Congressional questioning over inflation, monetary policy, and AI’s economic impact.
  • Tech stocks (especially chips) have a volatile week.

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2. 10 Stocks to Watch: High-Conviction Picks for the Quarter

Timestamps: 04:19 – 13:53
Guests:

• Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Chief Content Officer
• Emily Graffeo, Bloomberg News Credit Reporter
• Kat Doherty, Bloomberg News Finance Reporter

Introduction to the List

• Focus Ideas Approach:
  • Actively managed, high-conviction stock ideas with notable near-term catalysts, both positive and negative, selected from global analysts.
    • “…the crux of these is that they’re high conviction fundamental views, either positive or cautious from the analyst across the globe…” – Tim Craighead (04:51)

Key Companies Highlighted:

Microsoft (MSFT)

• Market Misperception:
  • The market is too gloomy on Microsoft, lumping it with software at risk of AI disruption, overlooking its leading role in cloud/AI.
    • “It seems to be forgetting that Microsoft is one of the large hyperscalers...We think revenue is set to surprise on the upside...” – Tim Craighead (06:21)
• New Office 360 product release is a catalyst.

Halma (UK) & Telecom Malaysia

• Second-Derivative AI Plays:
  • Halma: A UK industrial with a booming photonics business supplying hyperscalers for AI, not yet fully appreciated by the market.
    • “…makes photonics…helps replace copper into data center infrastructure… ramping aggressively…” – Tim Craighead (07:29)
  • Telecom Malaysia: Key beneficiary of Asia’s AI/data center buildout as Singapore’s capacity maxes out.

SolarEdge

• Energy Security Play, Not AI:
  • Focus is on surging European solar business, driven by energy security concerns post Russia/Ukraine and Middle East conflicts; 30% of revenue from Europe.
    • “Europe has been twice bitten and is thinking very actively about how to do more in terms of driving energy security.” – Tim Craighead (09:39)

Mattel (Barbie)

• Product Cycle Headwinds:
  • Barbie’s movie boom fades; market too optimistic as toys trend toward building sets/trading cards.
    • “The product cycle is right now not in their favor.” – Tim Craighead (11:26)
  • Playful banter about Barbie moving into AI (“Barbie the builder”).

Barry Callebaut (Chocolate)

• Chocolate Squeeze:
  • Cocoa spike has led chocolate makers to cut cocoa content; weather risks (El Niño) threaten supply and margins, more pain ahead.
    • “Layer on top of that El Nino…which increases the cost of cocoa beans…causes a cost squeeze…” – Tim Craighead (12:46)

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3. New Financial Frontier: Compute Futures as an Asset Class

Timestamps: 16:49 – 29:14
Guest: Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer, Kalshi
Also Featuring: Kat Doherty, Bloomberg News

Context & Catalyst

• Big Tech Signals:
  • BlackRock CEO Larry Fink (at Milken Institute, May 2026) predicts a futures market will emerge for computing power.
    • “I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute.” – Larry Fink via replay (17:24)

Kalshi’s Innovation

• Futures on Compute:

  • Kalshi, known for event contracts, launches tools to price and trade the future cost of compute power (especially GPU/cloud), meeting explosive AI demand.
    • “We are filling a void in this marketplace…eventually this market is going to become quite large…some estimates…are in trillions.” – Udesh Jha (20:45)
  • Provides real-world, market-driven price discovery vs. traditional OTC contracts.

• Why Kalshi May Win:

  • The compute market isn’t standardized (varying chips, grades, geographies).
  • Kalshi’s platform enables customizable, “crowd wisdom” driven contracts, supporting robust price discovery as “the first in its category."
    • “Prediction markets are unique for a few reasons…the prediction market allows us to list several of these contracts…” – Udesh Jha (22:19)

Core Users & Challenges

• Expected Participants:

  • Hyperscalers, AI startups, medical research, financial institutions, and retail/speculators.
    • “Just like many other commodities, to have a breadth of producers or suppliers and demand that will propel this ecosystem…” – Udesh Jha (24:32)

• Early-Liquidity Hurdle:

  • AI startups (high demand) often lack margin capacity; large cloud providers have locked-in capacity, may resist open pricing. Speculative/retail flow could help bootstrap liquidity.

• Forward Curve as Foundation:

  • Kalshi’s compute forward curve paves the way for futures, swaps, and other derivatives.

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4. The Shorts Debate: Corporate Dress Code in a Warming World

Timestamps: 33:02 – 44:25
Guest: Chris Rouser, Editor-at-Large, Bloomberg Pursuits

Cultural Moment

• Record summer heat has made shorts-in-the-office a flashpoint for modern workplace culture.
• Host Tim Stenovec describes his own shorts “commute swap” ritual.

Rouser’s Manifesto

• “If it’s 90 degrees or higher, you get to wear shorts to work. Now I know I’m wrong. We did a poll of Bloomberg users and only 45% thought it was appropriate.” – Chris Rouser (35:12, 35:28)
• Workplace tradition and respect still hold sway:
  • Law firm partners, top doctors, and real estate brokers interviewed remain anti-shorts, despite sweltering conditions.
  • Social shame lingers: “If you’ve ever been shamed…including me in this office—you…it sticks with you…” – Rouser (37:19)

Historical & International Perspective

• “Before the 19th century…displaying the body was central to masculinity…showing some leg.” – Rouser (38:18)
• Industrialization brought the suit as the global business uniform.
• Japan’s “Cool Biz” campaign and recent relaxation of dress codes serve as international comparisons:
  • “It just was like an actual civic duty. You should wear shorts. And that’s a very formal culture.” – Rouser (36:22)
• Norway’s outdoor-life philosophy (“friluftsliv”) used as an example of practical attire and cultural adaptation.

Fashion Industry and the Future

• Rouser notes even fashion journalists are sometimes admonished for shorts, despite industry creativity.

• “It’s so much about respect, right?...If you’re meeting with people, how you present yourself…talks about how you respect yourself…” – Rouser (41:14)

• Playful nods to contemporary fashion: Yves Saint Laurent “nightmare” runway look of blazer with (almost) no pants, as well as balancing self-expression and workplace respect.

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5. Additional: Luxury Shopping at Airports & Wrap-Up

Timestamps: 44:25– End

• Luxury airport shopping: Small boutiques in airports, run by large holding companies, actually do significant business, with perks for loyal customers.
• Practical tips: You can call ahead and reserve luxury items for pickup while traveling.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Microsoft:
  • “The market seems to have put Microsoft in the bucket of broad software that could be disrupted by AI...But they are arguably the leading cloud platform for large language models.” – Tim Craighead (06:21)
• On Compute Market Creation:
  • “The compute or the GPU market is not standardized…we can list several contracts…ensure robust price discovery at much lower levels.” – Udesh Jha (22:19)
• On Shorts & Respect:
  • “Clothes that recognize that you lived in a world and used your body was for poor people…courtly people wore corsets, wore restrictive clothing, and then the American uniform was the black suit.” – Chris Rouser (39:03)
• On Weather, Life, and Shorts:
  • “Why can’t we wear clothes that recognize we have bodies that exist in an actual world?” – Chris Rouser (36:10)

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Important Timestamps Reference

| Segment | Timestamp | |--------------------------------|------------| | Global markets & Iran crisis | 02:02–03:37| | 10 Stocks to Watch Discussion | 04:19–13:53| | Compute Futures: Kalshi | 16:49–29:14| | Shorts-in-the-office Debated | 33:02–44:25| | Luxury airport shopping, wrap | 44:25–End |

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Tone & Delivery

Clear, informed, brisk, and playful; mixes sober analysis (markets, geopolitics, tech) with light-hearted banter and cultural commentary.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode expertly compiles the global, the financial, the technological, and the cultural:

• Geopolitical shocks and Wall Street’s volatility set the scene.
• Bloomberg Intelligence spotlights stocks with powerful stories and catalysts—ranging from Microsoft’s AI resilience to a looming cocoa crunch.
• Udesh Jha of Kalshi reveals how compute power is becoming a traded asset, reshaping both tech and finance.
• The “shorts at work” debate brings a creative, cultural edge, illustrating how enduring traditions adapt under pressure and heat.

For business leaders, investors, and the culturally curious alike, this episode unpacks the forces shaping tomorrow’s world.

Transcript

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[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens, the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar the and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.

[Carol Massar]

Hi everyone. Welcome to the Bloomberg businessweek Week Weekend Podcast, a high stakes week both globally and up on Capitol Hill in the Middle East. First of all, the fragile June ceasefire between the United States and Iran hit a major roadblock following a heavy new wave of U.S. airstrikes on Iran. The strikes are part of a bombing campaign that President Donald Trump says will continue until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and agrees to open the waterway. A developing story time as we wrapped up, we should point out, there were strikes kind of going on all around the region.

[Emily Graffeo]

It was just not working out as everyone expected.

[Carol Massar]

And oh, got to also mention all the big Wall street banks reported earnings and let's just say there were lots of superlatives when it came to many of the results. For the latest on that and the ongoing US War in Iran. Head over to the bloomberg and to

[Tim Stennebec]

bloomberg.com also a focus this past week, newish Fed chair Kevin Warsh making a highly anticipated debut on Capitol Hill. He faced tough questions from lawmakers when came to inflation, monetary policy, the economic impact of AI and more. Meanwhile on Wall street, chip stocks had quite a week, riding a rollercoaster of sharp selloffs followed by a strong tech rebound. Ups and downs rollercoaster, I think is the right way to describe it.

[Carol Massar]

It is. And this hour we keep an eye on those chips. Plus chocolate and Barbie. It's all in the 10 stocks to watch this quarter, thanks to our Bloomberg Intelligence team, who have identified the most interesting companies from their group of what they call high confidence focus ideas. We reve names and why, for better or for worse, they bear watching.

[Tim Stennebec]

Then we turn our attention to the rapidly expanding world of prediction markets. We sit down with Udesh Jha, he's the chief risk officer over at Kalshi, on the company's latest tool that plots the future price of computing power.

[Carol Massar]

Plus, as the summer heat continues to break records, we address a hotly debated question in the modern corporate world, is

[Emily Graffeo]

it ever okay to show some leg in the office we're talking about. I feel like mostly for guys here,

[Tim Stennebec]

I'm wearing shorts right now, so I know you are.

[Emily Graffeo]

Women can kind of get away with lots of things, of showing legs regularly. But I don't know, with guys in shorts, I guess it's a whole other thing.

[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Pursuits editor at large Chris Rouser

[Emily Graffeo]

says yes, it's okay to show a little leg for men. He'll explain a little later on all that to come.

[Tim Stennebec]

We begin with the 10 companies to watch this quarter. Our Bloomberg Intelligence team has identified interesting companies from its roster of high confidence focus ideas. It spans sectors and regions. Each scenario outlines a catalyst in the next few months that supports their case.

[Carol Massar]

Some of the companies highlight high stakes in semiconductor chips, the pricing power of global chocolate, and the next chapter for Barbie. Helping us break it all down is Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Global chief content officer. He joined me alongside Bloomberg News credit reporter Emily Graffeo.

[Tim Craighead]

So these, these companies are all part of a broader group of of ideas that we have on an ongoing basis, an actively managed group of ideas we call Focus Ideas. You can find them on the terminal by the way with BI Focus. But the crux of these is that they're high conviction fundamental views, either positive or cautious from the analyst across the globe. They span all sectors and they're differentiated from what the market seems to be discounting and high conviction differentiated. The third leg of this is there's catalyst ahead that we think will change the market's mentality. And with this group of 10, you know, it is whittled way down. These are 10 across the globe, positive and negative across sectors that we think have particularly notable catalysts coming up in the third quarter. So it's not the be all and end all, but it's certainly a, a high profile topical list of 10 companies to watch.

[Kat Doherty]

Okay, well, we have to start with Microsoft. That's the largest company on the list here. What is the market getting wrong about Microsoft? And I love how the story is laid out because you have a picture, you have a data sheet and then you also have a trigger which is a note about what could trigger any movement. But I'll let you explain it.

[Tim Craighead]

Yeah, so the crux of the idea with Microsoft is the market seems to have put Microsoft in the bucket of broad software that could be disrupted by AI. There's that theme of the SaaS apocalypse where AI is going to take over everything that's software. It seems to be forgetting that Microsoft is one of the large hyperscalers it has through its ongoing work, arguably the leading cloud platform for large language models. And they also have a new Microsoft 360 office suite that's coming out in the second half. We think revenue is set to surprise on the upside, and the market seems to be discounting quite the opposite.

[Emily Graffeo]

I get it.

[Carol Massar]

I feel like we've been talking about

[Emily Graffeo]

Microsoft and watching it a lot, so I can see why you guys included that in the list. Where shall we go next? What's a name that maybe either surprised you or you think maybe I don't know, that you find of interest?

[Tim Craighead]

Well, well, I think one way to think about this, you know, the last couple of times we've had conversations, there's been AI related ideas. We've talked about some of the big chip companies before, we've talked about other hyperscalers. But we're always looking for the undiscovered AI plays or the second derivative, if you will. And there's two on the list this time that I think fit that bill. One is a UK company called Halma, which is, it falls in the industrial category. They do a lot of health and safety equipment, but they've got a business embedded in their divisions that makes photonics. Photonics are an optical device that essentially helps replace copper into data center infrastructure to reduce legacy increase bandwidth, speed, et cetera. And it's a big business. It's ramping Aggressively they are the supplier for one of the big hyperscalers and we don't think that it's baked in to what the market thinks. Second one is Telecom Malaysia. You think about Asia building out AI. A lot of the data center build out has been in Singapore. They're running out of space. It is space constrained. More and more data center build out is moving across the channel into southern Malaysia and Telecom Malaysia is the digital infrastructure provider. So they're providing fiber, backhaul and other services that will allow this data center build out. So two interesting sort of second derivative plays on the AI theme.

[Kat Doherty]

And what about Solar Edge? I know that's a company on the list where the. The outlook was a cloud. Again to, to those just listening this list, the outlook is either a. A cloud or a sun. So solaredge has a sun. Is that not. Does I not play into that? That thesis wouldn't. Well, they get a boost from interesting energy demands.

[Tim Craighead]

Does and it doesn't. It does in that there is no doubt that solar and other renewable energy sources are going to play into data center energy demand. And there's a great story to be told along those lines. That said, the real reason why we're focused on SolarEdge at this point is actually the European business and that's not so much an AI driven issue. It's energy security. We've been through the story of Russia invading Ukraine and disrupting the gas supply. We've now been through the story of the Middle east conflict disrupting gas supply. Europe has been twice bitten and is thinking very actively about how to do more in terms of driving energy security. Solar is one of those elements and SolarEdge has seen its European business, which is about 30% of revenue, accelerate and we think that has further legs. Long legs.

[Emily Graffeo]

Yeah. You know it's interesting we. I feel like Craig keep having these conversations coming off the US war in Iran that there are countries, whether it's China, as we are talking about in other places that don't want to be so vulnerable when it comes to global energy supplies like brought to their need. And China in particular I think is certainly looking at that. This is a stock though that's been on a tear up almost 100% yet year to date, although about 18% of the float is short. So you get a little bit of feel in terms of what the street is thinking. I got to go to Mattel. We talked Barbie, let's go there they were, they were on fire and then they weren't.

[Tim Craighead]

Well, enough is enough. Right. So sorry, had to go had had to throw that in at some time. So Mattel, you know, it has, has a big business in the doll business. It's a big chunk of that is Barbie and it did get a big boost by the Barbie movie back a couple years ago. But the toy business has been moving at least from, from our analysts perspective more towards building sets and in particular trading cards. More recently the sort of focus is off of the dolls and with that in mind we think that they're set for further disappointment in terms of expected revenue growth. It is really as simple as that. It's a product cycle sort of story. And the product cycle is right now not in their favor.

[Emily Graffeo]

All right, you got to finish up with what.

[Carol Massar]

What's the matter?

[Kat Doherty]

I just feel bad for Barbie. Maybe they could have her build something like Barbie the builder and then maybe

[Carol Massar]

she could build data centers.

[Emily Graffeo]

Yeah, like an AI play or something.

[Kat Doherty]

Carol, go ahead.

[Emily Graffeo]

I know, I don't know it's, that's that lame. But hey, Barbie can do anything. We know that. I gotta end up with chocolate. Got about a minute left here. Not a name that I'm that familiar with, but I love me some good dark chocolate.

[Tim Craighead]

Just gonna say so. Barry Callebut is a European cocoa producer and so they source cocoa, they process it, they sell it to the big chocolate makers, Nestle and others. A couple of things have been going on in the chocolate business. Number one, after cocoa spiked over the course of the last couple of years because of harvest issues, weather, what have you, chocolate makers have been actually reducing the content of chocolate of cocoa in their chocolate, which is a negative on a structural basis for Berry Calla but we don't think is fully understood. You layer on top of that El Nino, which is increasingly looking to be more severe and that could disrupt supply, which increases the cost of cocoa beans, which causes a cost squeeze for Barry Caliban and you end up therefore with a volume pressure, a cost pressure and they're kind of stuck in the middle. And we think that disappointment is ahead.

[Emily Graffeo]

All right, that makes sense.

[Tim Craighead]

So it's not very sweet on that one, but you can get a chocolate bar.

[Tim Stennebec]

That was Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Chief Content Officer. Check out the full list [e-mail] businessweek and on the Bloomberg terminal. Our thanks to to Emily Griffeo, Bloomberg News credit reporter. She filled in while I was away.

[Carol Massar]

Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek. We know about trading AI tech stocks, but how about trading the computing power behind them?

[Tim Stennebec]

Kalshee ramps up its effort to build markets for just that. We check in with its Chief Risk officer next. This is Bloomberg.

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[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Emily Graffeo]

So remember back in May, and if you remember this, it was at the

[Carol Massar]

Milken Institute, their Global conference in Beverly Hills.

[Tim Stennebec]

If you were, if you, you weren't watching our show, if you don't remember

[Emily Graffeo]

this because it was, because it was

[Tim Stennebec]

on, it was on.

[Emily Graffeo]

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said global demand for computing power is so huge that traders will one day be able to bet on a futures market for it.

[Carol Massar]

Here's a refresher in case you missed

[Emily Graffeo]

it or forgot about it.

[Kal Penn]

The United States is short power.

[Udesh Jha]

We're short compute, we're short chips and they're going to be shortages in all three and memory.

[Tim Stennebec]

Four things.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute.

[Udesh Jha]

We just don't have enough compute power right now.

[Emily Graffeo]

And that was Blackrock's Larry Fink Milkenbach in May. While Larry's prediction might just be coming true, Kalshee has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence.

[Tim Stennebec]

Joining us now with more in a Bloomberg exclusive, Udesh Jaw, chief risk officer of the prediction market Kal she joining us from London. Also with us, Bloomberg News finance reporter Kat Doherty here in the studio. You were just appointed to this position coming from the derivatives marketplace CME Group. You spent months, 6, 16 years at CME. You posted on LinkedIn that you started paying attention to Kalshi back in 2024 during the elections. What struck you then and why? At the end of the post you say, I've never felt this energized in a long time. What struck you about this company?

[Udesh Jha]

I think I, as you said, I've been at CME. I was at CME for 16 years. I joined CME at the onset of the Dodd Frank post clearing mandates. And now looking ahead 16 years, I think I see the same excitement in the financial industry with prediction markets, with the migration to tokens, with cloud adoption. From that standpoint, I think Kalshi, at the center of a lot of that innovation is a really exciting place and I'm super excited to be joining at this part of the journey with them.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

So Udesh, many people know Kalshi for event contracts, betting on the likelihood of, let's say a FIFA game and who's going to be the World cup win. You've launched a number of new products outside of event contracts. Can you talk about some of the recent initiatives and why you're moving away from or adding to event contracts?

[Udesh Jha]

Yeah, that's a great question. I think as we have seen, event contracts are or prediction markets are becoming quite mainstream. For a few reasons. One is the predictive power that they provide, the very specific questions that they ask which help the institutions, retail and other participants manage risk. And today at Calci we have about a very large set of institutional and direct retail participants who are able to do so. And with that in mind, we have seen a fairly large growth in some of the very important asset classes such as crypto, such as KPI markets. And now I'm excited to talk today about the compute market, which is GPU related, that we are excited to also bring in to the marketplace for risk management and other needs.

[Emily Graffeo]

And we want to dig into this. Just two quick questions.

[Udesh Jha]

Is BlackRock involved right now at this point in time? This is something that we have done organically. We do have pricing information that comes from one of our partner vendors that's available on our website. But we do expect large institutions to take advantage of this innovation by looking at the forward curves and use it to price deals, to do OTC contracts, to do other sorts of derivatives for their purposes.

[Emily Graffeo]

And I know it's early. Are people calling you already because they're interested in terms of various institutions or institutional investors?

[Udesh Jha]

Yes, we are. We are getting a lot of inbounds because we are filling a void in this marketplace which was very important. If you're Bloomberg, for example, is very big in the swaps market. As you know, for pricing interest rate swaps or any other derivative or any other deal that depends forward curve is very important. It is extremely valuable for anybody doing a five year swap or a two year swap to know what would be the rate on a particular index out there. And that's precisely what we have done. We know that eventually this market is going to become quite large. Some estimates of the total addressable market size are in trillions. If you look at the amount of funding committed by the hyperscalers, they are north of 500 to 600 billion just for 2026. If you look at multiples beyond that, what this market could be. It's a very large market, so we are getting a lot of inbound. But we do want to start first with a natural requirement which is to bring price discovery in the marketplace so that it can be used for hedging, trading and other purposes down the line.

[Tim Stennebec]

So CME Group said back in May that it would launch Computing Power Futures linked to an index compiled by Silicon Data Intercontinental Exchange. It owns the New York Stock Exchange. And I'm reading right from, from Kat's article here. Teaming up with the financial infrastructure firm or to add futures Contracts for computing power. Why are you better positioned to build this tool than they are?

[Udesh Jha]

I think I would start by saying that by, by, by such CME and EYES and others, it actually lends a lot of credence to the marketplace, to the demand for this asset class, in addition to what Larry Fink said earlier. But prediction markets are unique for a few reasons. One, the compute or the GPU market is not standardized at this point in time. There are many different factors that play into that index. It could be locations, the chips, the different kinds of chips, the grades, the different uses. So rather than focusing on a particular index or a particular contract, the prediction market allows us to list several of these contracts, which is what we have done. And the prediction market also ensures very robust price discovery at much lower levels of total open interest that we have seen through many of other contracts. So this is where it is very uniquely positioned to bring in a more accurate price discovery than focusing on one or two different grades of the marketplace and do a traditional future.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

So eventually you were mentioning an issue that has been raised in terms of this is a nascent asset class. It is a market that it is evolving. We have a number of exchanges, as Tim mentions, that have gotten into the compute market and trying to develop it. Why is this price discovery that you're talking about? Do you find it to be a more accurate indicator of where compute prices are at this moment and then with this forward curve where they are indicated at a future point in time?

[Udesh Jha]

Yeah, I think one of the unique aspects of our price discovery that it's market driven, there are some forward curves out there, but they are derived not out of market inputs, but through either OTC deals or other bilateral contracts. But ours is a true market driven. And that is where the power of the wisdom of the crowd of the marketplace and the accuracy that comes out of it comes to full form. And that's why it's unique and the first in its category.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

And who do you see as your core users for this product?

[Udesh Jha]

We do expect to see a variety of users. I think on one side you have the natural sellers of compute hyperscalers, you can have the NEO cloud providers. On the other side there are the users of compute, AI, inference companies, medical research companies coming up which have significant computing needs to do drugs, research, retail, many of which were interested or are speculators in the marketplace. So we do feel this, just like many other commodities, to have a breadth of producers or suppliers and demand that will propel this ecosystem or the marketplace.

[Tim Stennebec]

Udesh, I want to try to understand some of the nuance in this and how you account for the nuance. Maybe it's algorithmically. I'm just curious from you in this release, Tarek Mansour, the company's founder CEO says that COMPUTE is the new oil. COMPUTE futures will eventually dwarf oil futures. Oil though is fungible. It's a barrel of Brent, is a barrel of Brent, it kind of doesn't matter. An hour though on an H200 is not the same as an hour on a B200. Chips depreciate. New architecture arrives every 12 to 18 months. Pricing power shifts. How do you build a reliable forward curve on a commodity that kind of like as soon as, you know it's like a new car, it becomes obsolete or it depreciates as soon as you drive it off the lot.

[Udesh Jha]

And that's a very, very important point that you make. Tim, I think as I mentioned earlier, this marketplace is still finding its footing. There are several grades, there are several different tanners, several different categories that give the appearance that it is quite dispersed. I would like to say that even in the oil market there are many different grades. There is the WTI cushion grade, there is the wti, but there are various forms of wti, but the marketplace has gravitated and formed a representative index which, which is, which is good for the market. And then there are basis products that, that, that derive. So we expect the marketplace to gravitate towards that and, and the prediction markets and our forward curve to be a good enabler so that that markets, our users can see the price on different grades of GPU computer at different tenors and then the market will most likely gravitate towards a limited set of usable indices.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Udash, I wanted to ask, so we have this forward product that you have just released, but the intention moving forward, could you. And do you plan to release other products that are investable products on top of this forward curve?

[Udesh Jha]

Yes, I think the forward curve is sort of your foundation to do other products such as futures, such as swaps, such as any other derivatives. So we'll see where the demand takes us. But I think our focus in the very immediate term is to build liquidity on the markets that are driving this forward curve so that this becomes the anchor or the benchmark for the industry.

[Emily Graffeo]

So one of the things I'm curious about is, and follow me for a second, if you get who actually trades this in the first year and I bring it up because the buyers who needed this most, we're talking about the AI startups using millions of Compute for training right there's that are also the ones least able to post margin and kind of manage derivatives risk. The sellers the hyperscalers whether it's aws, whether it's Google cloud, they have already in many ways locked in capacity through those long term contracts. We talk about it a lot here at Bloomberg. They have no obvious incentive to essentially give up some of that pricing power to an exchange. So who do you see as using this in the first year if you will and what happens if liquidity is too thin so thin to produce a meaningful price signal which is so important to really a truly functional marketplace?

[Udesh Jha]

You're very right. I think there is a lot of capacity that the hyperscalers have have have already committed to but we are also seeing an astronomical speed at which the demand is growing over the last six months or even a year. If you look back the adoption of compute that are heavily dependent on AI and others have been growing on quite so there are there are going to be quite a few on the demand side that will emerge whether it's it's financial institutions or drug research institutions or neoclouds lending them so we do expect and then retail of course for an asset class which is which is as exciting and potentially volatile. I think we will see retail and other speculative power come in as well and I do expect hyperscalers to at some point in time do look at this market as well.

[Tim Stennebec]

That was Yudish Jha, Chief Risk Officer at Kalshi. Our thanks as well to Kat Doherty, Bloomberg News finance reporter. Now a couple days after our interview, Kalshi announced it's expanding into biotech by offering wagers on the outcomes of clinical trials. Also, it's getting into predicting flight delays too.

[Emily Graffeo]

Sounds like everything is getting too so stay tuned. Hey.

[Carol Massar]

Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek, to wear or not to wear shorts. We debate the ultimate summer corporate workplace battle.

[Tim Stennebec]

That's with the shorts wearing. Chris Rouser this is Bloomberg.

[Public.com Representative]

Support for the show comes from public.com if you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge on public. You can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English like if the Vix hits 25, buy a put option on the S&P 500 or if my cash balance goes above $20,000 move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk monitoring the market watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com market paid for by Public

[Kal Penn]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC registered advisors complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures aging is

[Vital Proteins Representative]

real, and so are the benefits of adding Vital Proteins Collagen Peptides to your daily routine. New Vital Proteins Collagen Sparkling water. Your daily gloup now in three fresh flavors, Strawberry blossom, lemon, lime and blood orange. Improved skin health in as little as 30 days thanks to Collagen Peptides. Cheers to that. Or go with our classic Collagen peptides so you can stay vital. Stay you. Visit vitalproteins.com to learn more and where to buy these statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

[Kal Penn]

Hey everyone, it's Kal Penn, host of Irsay, The Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I'm sitting down with Divergent author Veronica Roth to talk about her sprawling new novel, Seek the Traitor's Son. It's a sci fi fantasy epic about two protagonists on opposite sides of the a war and a prophecy neither of them wanted.

[Kat Doherty]

My first book was Divergent and when that came out, like because it was so popular, I think it attracted like mostly positivity, but the negativity I sucked in like a sponge. And I think it was like critiques of things I liked when I was like, you know, I was 23 and I wrote this book and it had all my like dorky little cheesy or maybe unrealistic loves in it. And I started to feel a lot of shame about those things. And so for the rest of my career I steered away from those little things that like make you feel pleasure when you read. But I also was like saying no to these parts of myself that I then was like, screw it.

[Tim Stennebec]

Yeah, so that's this book.

[Kal Penn]

Listen to Irsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app app or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

[Kal Penn]

We wear short shorts. If you dare wear short shorts there.

[Tim Stennebec]

Or short.

[Kal Penn]

Short.

[Tim Stennebec]

All right, you.

[Emily Graffeo]

I was taking.

[Tim Stennebec]

Hopefully there was a little bit of a debate, like, when we were talking about doing this on the show today. There's, like, sort of a divide between who knows this ad and this song versus who doesn't. I think the three of us sitting here know this.

[Emily Graffeo]

Yes.

[Tim Stennebec]

Are familiar with this.

[Emily Graffeo]

Taking you back to the 70s or.

[Tim Stennebec]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host/Interviewer]

Or.

[Tim Stennebec]

Or just, like, it's kind of legendary.

[Carol Massar]

It is legendary.

[Emily Graffeo]

Like, it's, you know, being culturally literate.

[Tim Stennebec]

So we're talking about shorts in the office.

[Emily Graffeo]

We are here.

[Tim Stennebec]

Here's what I've started doing over the past few years. As. As you guys know, I wear shorts on my commute because it's like, tomorrow's going to be 97 degrees.

[Nicole]

Absolutely.

[Tim Stennebec]

I'm walking. I walk miles. Dropping these kids off at camp or school or whatever. I sweat a lot in this humidity. And then I get into the office, and I basically run from the elevators trying to avoid everybody and go and change into actual work clothes.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

Yeah.

[Tim Stennebec]

Chris Rouser is not the same. He wears shorts into the office, and he wears them proudly.

[Emily Graffeo]

He looks great.

[Tim Stennebec]

Oh, and you can actually see them if you're watching this on YouTube or Bloomberg originals.

[Public.com Representative]

Yeah.

[Tim Stennebec]

The shorts are nice, though. They're ironed.

[Nicole]

Sometimes they're sprints to my desk. I prance, I strut. I am proud of wearing shorts.

[Tim Stennebec]

There's a list of about a dozen people in this building who I do not want to see between when I'm wearing those shorts and when I'm changed into a short.

[Nicole]

Yes, I have seen some of those people.

[Tim Stennebec]

The voice you hear is Chris Rouser. He's editor at large for Bloomberg Pursuits. He's probably the only person who can write 2000 words about shorts and wearing them or not to the office. And I think, Chris, it's. It's actually an important story for our time. We're gonna talk to Mark Gangloff in a few minutes about heat and weather and sort of what we're going through here in the US and in Europe this summer. But the conversation is particularly relevant right now.

[Nicole]

It's very important. Thank you for taking. Paying attention to this very important subject.

[Emily Graffeo]

We do.

[Tim Stennebec]

So you get into the history a little bit in the piece, but why are shorts having a moment?

[Nicole]

Well, shorts are having a moment on runways, on streets, because it's so hot and a little bit in offices. I have been on a warpath for a couple of years where my rule is if it's 90 degrees or higher, you get to wear shorts to work. Now I know I'm wrong.

[Tim Stennebec]

We did a poll.

[Nicole]

We did a poll of Bloomberg users and only 45% of people thought it was appropriate to wear shorts to work. And many of them left comments like, yes, of course, if you work in a surf shop. One person said, AI is taking all our humanity. All we have left is pants. So this is an unpopular stance, but the world is changing. France recorded its hottest temperature ever two weeks ago.

[Emily Graffeo]

And there's no air over there.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Nicole]

Ac the tube in London is like a hell pipe. You know, it's just truly miserable. Why can't we wear clothes that recognize that we have actual bodies that exist in an actual world?

[Bank of America Representative]

Yeah.

[Emily Graffeo]

I ask you, what's wrong with that? Tell us what's going on too. In Japan, didn't they kind of come out, I think the governor and declare that male municipal workers were allowed to

[Carol Massar]

wear shorts to work?

[Nicole]

Yeah. So Japan and Tokyo has had this initiative, Tokyo cool biz, since like the mid aughts, which was basically like, we don't need to be so dressed up. We can relax with some of our codes. And then this year they went as far as to say in April, okay, you can actually wear shorts to work. Because for saving money on air conditioning costs, it just was like an actual civic duty. You should wear shorts. And that's a very formal culture. Much more formal than we are.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, exactly.

[Tim Stennebec]

You know, it's funny, in your piece, you, you quote people. Some of them are, you know, investors that people have heard of like Bill Ackman. Some are prominent doctors, real estate brokers who are touring multimillion dollar homes, partners at prominent law firms.

[Tim Craighead]

Yes.

[Tim Stennebec]

Every single one of them was like, do not wear shorts.

[Nicole]

Correct.

[Tim Stennebec]

In fact, the part of the law firm said three piece suit, tie and dress, shoes that are made of leather, that are black or brown. No sneakers.

[Nicole]

Yes, correct. He, that person also recognizes that he is on the more formal edge of the spectrum. He said no backpacks, except if you're an intern. But yeah, most people feel like it's not okay. A lot of people I spoke to, like that real estate agent, like this interior designer. Even people who are not in, you know, strictly formal offices, if they've ever been shamed or yelled at by someone, which a lot of us have, including me in this office, you. You sticks. It sticks with you. And you're like, okay, my behavior code is set by somebody disapproving of me. And then it sticks with me for the Rest of my career.

[Tim Stennebec]

Wait, was Bill Ackman talking about giving up short selling, or was he talking about.

[Nicole]

He's already given up short selling.

[Tim Stennebec]

Okay. But he. But he doesn't wear shorts either.

[Nicole]

I asked him about shorts. Shorts. And he said, no, no, I don't.

[Tim Stennebec]

But he does play tennis. And he wears shorts when he plays tennis.

[Nicole]

Yes, but not in the.

[Emily Graffeo]

You know, I love this. But it wasn't always so. Before the 19th century in the west, as you write, displaying the body was central to displaying masculinity. Specifically showing some leg.

[Nicole]

Oh, yeah. Like men in courtly situations, they show they wore culottes or they wore breeches, and then they wore stockings. Oh, yeah. Kilts, of course.

[Udesh Jha]

Right.

[Nicole]

And like, when he. In the painting John Trumbull did of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, John Adams is showing his cap. Like, if he can do it, you can. In your next. Do your next RFP, talking about your KPIs. I swear.

[Emily Graffeo]

No, it's really true. Like, what happened? Is it just because, I mean, you get into. I really love, like, industrialization suits becoming cheaper.

[Carol Massar]

Like, people could afford more.

[Tim Stennebec]

Showing that. Showing that you're not a laborer.

[Emily Graffeo]

Right, Right.

[Tim Stennebec]

You're not working in, you know, you're actually working in an office. It's a class thing.

[Nicole]

You guys see how easy it is to write 2,000 words about this stuff?

[Kat Doherty]

It.

[Emily Graffeo]

We are blown away.

[Nicole]

It used to be like, wearing clothes that recognize that you lived in a world and used your body was like, for poor people. It was like, only serfs did that. You know, courtly people wore corsets. They wore really restrictive clothing that was like almost. You couldn't move in at all and pretended that you weren't in like a boiling hot world. And then that when the founding fathers started America, they basically. Basically it was a lot of white men who were like, oh, that's too fancy. Like that. We have to reject European frippery. Like French royal courts. We had to wear black suits. And that became the American uniform at work. Especially through the Industrial revolution when, like, suits became cheap to make. And that actually spread around the world. So in a lot of countries, everywhere, people in offices are wearing dark suits. And it's been remarkably unchanged.

[Tim Stennebec]

We're not wearing wigs, though. We're not wearing delicate cuffs.

[Nicole]

Yeah. So really it was.

[Tim Stennebec]

It could be worse is what I'm saying. That's true.

[Emily Graffeo]

I mean, I don't understand, like, you know, we went to casual Fridays and, like, people were in khakis, you know, the pandemic and then we came back to work, and we're still wearing our yoga pants. And, you know, when the runaways show me, I don't know if we have this picture.

[Tim Stennebec]

And producers, I don't know if we can show that.

[Emily Graffeo]

If you didn't put this out, we're gonna have to talk after the show. But when Runway starts showing guys in

[Nicole]

blazers with shorts, well, she's talking about different pictures. There's a. Yeah, there's a Yves Saint Laurent menswear look from this summer where the model is wearing truly, like a nightmare. Like an actual nightmare outfit that I've actually had a nightmare about. He's walking down the Runway with a big blazer, a sort of a sweater top, and no pants. No pants. You could maybe describe them as shorts, but it's really like we've all had that dream. Undergarment. Yeah.

[Tim Stennebec]

We're talking with Chris Rouser, editor at large of Bloomberg Pursuits, the only man we know who. Who can both write 2000 words on wearing shorts to the office and then wear shorts when it's above 90 degrees.

[Emily Graffeo]

Yes, Carol, you know what I find interesting is you also talk to people in the fashion industry. And there was one person who said, when I was an intern at Women's Wear Daily in Paris, as an 18 year old, in my exit interview, I was told by my editor that it was inappropriate for me to wear shorts to work. It was sweltering in Paris. But I would think in anything connected with fashion would be like, anything kind of goes.

[Nicole]

I mean, it's so much about respect, right? Like, if you're a journalist. And I want to really say this, like, I once wore sandals to work when I was a young reporter at the New York Daily News. And someone talked to me about it, and they were like, because we had and had to run out and interview people, that something happened in emergency, and it was disrespectful. And that is real. Like, if you're meeting with people, how you present yourself, if you're formal, talks about how you respect yourself, how you respect the people you meet with that people that really sticks with people. But if you're just hanging out at your desk or you're moving around the city, I don't know, guys.

[Tim Stennebec]

It's hot dress for the job you have.

[Nicole]

Listen, if you do what you love, you never work a day in your life. You get to write 2,000 words about wearing shorts to work.

[Tim Craighead]

It's not work.

[Tim Stennebec]

Are we going to talk about luxury?

[Carol Massar]

Maybe we have to move to Norway

[Emily Graffeo]

because they kind of get it right.

[Nicole]

Yes.

[Tim Stennebec]

Why is everybody talks about Norway, right?

[Emily Graffeo]

Well, I know it seems like the. A place to be, but they're. They kind of inside, outside. Right.

[Carol Massar]

Environment.

[Nicole]

Like, they just kind of embrace, like Bermuda. They wear shorts. Norway, they have this. This sort of metaphor for life called frule. Sliv. Frulifts live. I don't. I always get it wrong.

[Tim Craighead]

Sounds good.

[Nicole]

Which is basically like outdoor life. Outdoor living is life, and the more you recognize the world and your place in it, and the more you spend time passing through it, the better you are mentally and physically.

[Tim Stennebec]

Norway, we're. Oh, we got the short spec, I guess.

[Emily Graffeo]

Oh, do we have it?

[Tim Stennebec]

You know, I went to Norway.

[Emily Graffeo]

Can we bring it up?

[Tim Stennebec]

Maybe like, nine years ago, 10 years ago, with my wife.

[Emily Graffeo]

For those who. Well, I'm just gonna say for those who are listening on radio, that is the picture that Chris said. Yves Saint Laurent.

[Nicole]

Yves Saint Laurent, yeah.

[Emily Graffeo]

Yeah. And it's a guy with a big blazer, but not much else.

[Public.com Representative]

Right?

[Tim Stennebec]

Yeah.

[Nicole]

We clearly still haven't figured out what to wear with socks, but that's a whole other thing.

[Tim Stennebec]

Let's talk about luxury shopping.

[Nicole]

You were saying you were.

[Tim Stennebec]

Well, I was in Norway, and this whole idea of outdoor culture. There's a law. At least there was back then. You were literally allowed to camp anywhere on the side of the road. So you'd be driving through these amazing roads, and people would just be pulled over. And. And everyone's. It's not like campsites in the U.S. i mean, everyone is so respectful of the outdoors. They're so respectful of their surroundings. But it's just widely accepted that you can pull over and you can sleep outside.

[Emily Graffeo]

Are we going to tease this one other?

[Tim Stennebec]

Yeah, let's tease this other.

[Emily Graffeo]

So if I can't get, like, a Chanel bag that I'm coveting, I just have to go to the airport.

[Vital Proteins Representative]

Airport.

[Nicole]

I wouldn't say you just have to go to the airport, but airport shopping, you always go buy those boutiques, whether luxury or not. Like, you walk by Chanel at the airport, you're like, there's never anyone in there, but actually, they do a big business. A lot of them are owned by these big sort of mega companies that run them all. So it's not necessarily like Brooks Brothers owning the Brooks Brothers store, but they're small footprints, and they do a lot of business. Doesn't have to be a lot of people in there. And at stores like Chanel and Hermes, if you have a good relationship with them, they can actually get you good stuff. Not a Birkin bag, but like good stuff. And if you, you can get someone's phone number, they'll like, call ahead, order stuff, have it ready for you. You just pick it up.

[Tim Stennebec]

Is that wild being like, who are, who is in here buying stuff?

[Emily Graffeo]

Because they do always look empty.

[Nicole]

Yeah, but people spend a lot more time in airports because you're so worried about getting, you know, getting caught up in lines and stuff. So people are in airports for a long time and they just shop.

[Emily Graffeo]

I love that you, like call ahead and be like, I'm going to be flying into the airport in like two weeks and they hold stuff for you. Unbelievable.

[Tim Stennebec]

Our thanks to Chris Rouser, Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at large.

[Carol Massar]

And that wraps up our weekend edition of Bloomberg businessweek from Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Tim Stennebec]

Be sure to tune in to Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Monday through Friday starting at 2pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg TV and on Sirius XM Channel 121.

[Carol Massar]

You can also watch our daily broadcast on YouTube. Just search Bloomberg Podcast were simulcast on Bloomberg originals, available on bloomberg.com originals and streaming platforms including Roku, Amazon, Fire TV, Samsung TV plus and more.

[Tim Stennebec]

Find our Bloomberg Businessweek podcast at bloomberg.com, apple or wherever you get your podcasts. This past week we featured a conversation with Mark Gurman. He's Bloomberg Managing editor for Consumer tech. We talked Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the company of systematically stealing its intellectual property, as well as OpenAI's latest move into consumer hardware, plus the latest edition of the magazine. It's available on newsstands [e-mail] and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. I'm Tim Stennebec.

[Carol Massar]

And I'm Carol Massar. Have a good and safe weekend, everyone. Do stay cool and stay with us.

[Emily Graffeo]

And wear your shorts, maybe.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Carol Massar]

Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn [e-mail] Aging is real, and so

[Vital Proteins Representative]

are the benefits of new vital proteins. Collagen Sparkling water Because around the age of 30, your body needs backup to keep your collagen up. So get your daily glow up now in three fresh flavors Strawberry blossom, lemon, lime and blood orange. Improved skin health in as little as 30 days thanks to Collagen Peptides. Cheers to that. So you can stay vital. Stay you. Visit vitalproteins.com to learn more and where to buy these statements are not evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.

[Kal Penn]

Hey everyone, it's Kel Penn. I'm inviting you to join the best sounding book club you've ever heard with my podcast, Hearsay, The Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. Every episode, I nerd out with amazing guests and dive into the best new audiobooks available on Audible. It's the book club for your ears. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.