Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - May 15th, 2026

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend – May 15th, 2026

Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Date: May 15, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy—focusing on persistent inflation, wavering consumer confidence, and major changes in financial markets. The hosts bring on top voices in credit markets, the CEO of Sally Beauty Holdings for insights into consumer behavior, and the creative team behind Broadway’s much-discussed revival "Cats: The Jellicle Ball."
Throughout, the tone is lively, inquisitive, and occasionally irreverent—balancing macro trends with on-the-ground perspectives.

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1. U.S. Economy: Inflation, Interest Rates, & The Fed

Main Themes:

• U.S. inflation accelerated in April due to gasoline and grocery price spikes, eroding wage growth and lessening the probability of interest rate cuts later in the year.
• The Senate narrowly confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in a highly politicized, slim-margin vote, stirring concerns about the institution’s independence.

Key Points:

• Consumer health: Americans are "feeling stretched" by rising costs; lower/middle-income buyers are pulling back.
• Fed dynamics: Warsh’s leadership signals an era of uncertainty around rate policy.

Notable Quotes:

• “US Inflation accelerated in April...a double whammy for already strained consumers and lowering the chance for an interest rate cut later on this year.”
  — Darrell (02:21)
• “The Senate narrowly confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, setting up the most controversial leadership transition at the central bank in decades.”
  — Chris Rouser (02:41)

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2. Private Credit Markets: Cracks and Concerns

(Segment starts at 03:29)

Guests:

• Jeff Gundlach (CEO/CIO, DoubleLine)
• Michael Gross (Co-founder/CEO, SLR Capital Partners)
• James Crombie (Bloomberg News, Senior Editor—Credit)

Key Discussion Points

• Private Credit Stress:

  • Recent surges in redemption requests signal growing distrust.
  • The problem echoes systemic risks from previous market cycles (e.g., dotcom IPOs).

• Valuations & Software Exposure:

  • Steep markdowns in certain funds, particularly with heavy exposure to software and SaaS business loans.
  • BDCs (Business Development Companies) reporting negative ROE, notable after 10–15 years of stability.

• Investor Response & Retail Exposure:

  • Retail investors panic quickly, fueling further redemptions.
  • Institutional and family office interest remains strong, but discipline is needed amid "too much money chasing too few deals."

• Scale vs. Niche Debate:

  • Some argue that mega-firms (like Apollo) benefit from turmoil due to scale. Gross counters that "diseconomies of scale" can set in, with niche players offering better risk-adjusted returns.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

• Trust Breakdown:

  • “I think the mechanism is already underway and the mechanism is a decline or elimination of trust...”
    — Jeff Gundlach (04:03)

• Software-Heavy Loan Portfolios:

  • “All these software loans we're talking about, which are 20–30% of people’s exposure, still has real downside. Just the fact they’re trading lower doesn’t mean that’s the bottom.”
    — Michael Gross (06:41)

• Private Credit’s Retailization:

  • “Too much money was raised too quickly and that caused certain managers to lose discipline and put money out quickly just for the sake of putting it out.”
    — Michael Gross (12:04)

• Scale Debate:

  • “I think we’ve gone into a world where there’s a diseconomy of scale by being too large and having targets of $1–2 trillion of assets...by being a niche player...you can go after different seams within private credit that offer better returns with less risk.”
    — Michael Gross (12:46)

• Redemptions Not Over:

  • “Yes, you will see similar redemptions because once people start, they're not going to stop.”
    — Michael Gross (13:56)

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3. The Consumer Landscape & Beauty Industry

(Segment starts at 18:27 & 19:28)

Guests:

• Denise Polonis (President & CEO, Sally Beauty Holdings)

Key Themes

• Consumer Anxiety:

  • Fed Survey: 90% of Americans were worried about inflation, and 42% were concerned about job stability—up from previous years.
  • Lower/middle-income consumers most affected, evidenced by cautious spending.

• Sally Beauty Performance Amid Squeeze:

  • Q2 sales up 2.3% (Sally brand +4.4% in the U.S.).
  • People buying essentials (hair color, nail gel), trading down from salons to at-home treatments.
  • Transaction/ticket growth still positive, but caution exists over prolonged gas/grocery price pressure.

• Behavior:

  • Customers are “more choiceful,” emphasizing value and DIY.
  • Some see inflows as people substitute salon visits with home hair/nail care.
  • E-commerce surging (+28% YoY); TikTok Shop is a new growth channel.
  • Stable labor situation; turnover is actually declining.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Consumer Resiliency:

  • “We do serve a lower middle income consumer. And so we watch them be more choiceful...they’re buying what matters right now, which is hair color.”
    — Denise Polonis (19:35)

• Trading Down:

  • “Somebody might be going to the salon a little less frequently and maybe doing their root touch up at home...our color business was up 12% in the U.S.”
    — Denise Polonis (21:21)

• Outlook:

  • “We might not see real high highs, but we don't see real low lows because...we participate in categories that customers need. If you start coloring your hair, you generally don't stop.”
    — Denise Polonis (23:26)

• Labor:

  • “We've actually seen turnover slow, so voluntary turnover has gone down, which is great for us...”
    — Denise Polonis (28:06)

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4. Broadway’s “Cats: The Jellicle Ball” — Reimagining a Classic

(Segment starts at 34:40)

Guests:

• Bill Rauch (Co-Director, Artistic Director at Perlman Performing Arts Center)
• Jaelyn Livingston (Co-Director)
• Chris Rouser (Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at Large)

Major Talking Points

• The Concept:

  • A queer, human-centric reimagining of “Cats” set in the world of ballroom culture—not literal cats, but “cool cats” in a 20th-century, LGBTQ+ context.

• Process & Reception:

  • Decades-long idea; collaboration required approval from Andrew Lloyd Webber.
  • “It was a group of us who figured out how to do the show in the context of ballroom...and eventually Andrew said, yes.” (Bill Rauch, 37:10)
  • Both loyalists and longtime haters of “Cats” have found something to love in this revival.
  • Overlaps between the pageantry, competition, and family in both ballroom and the musical.

• Production Challenges:

  • Transitioning from immersive off-Broadway setup to a proscenium Broadway stage:
    “The biggest thing we struggled with was how to make it work in a proscenium. Because…at PAC nyc, it’s a very immersive space...on Broadway, we have twice as many audience members, but only half the space.”
    — Bill Rauch (40:09)

• Longevity & Impact:

  • Production capped by nine Tony nominations.
  • “If you love Cats, if you’ve never been exposed to Cats, everybody of all ages loves this show and…we can say that it is a joy bomb…”
    — Bill Rauch (43:40)

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On the Creative Leap:

  • “What if there was a production of Cats wherein no one was an actual cat and there weren't ears and there weren't tails.”
    — Jaelyn Livingston (36:15)

• On Andrew Lloyd Webber:

  • “One of his great quotes is, 'I've never been in a theater with as much love as I've been in for Cats, the Jellicle Ball.'"
    — Bill Rauch (45:41)

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5. Consumer Data: What They Say vs. What They Do

(Segment at 29:49)

• Recent retail sales advanced for the third straight month, showing some consumer resilience despite inflation and high gas prices.
• “The saying goes: watch what consumers do, not what they say.” — Chris Rouser (29:49)
• Surveys show record-low consumer sentiment, but retail data points to ongoing demand—question remains how long this can last.

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Economic Overview & Fed: 02:21 – 03:29
• Private Credit Risks: 03:29 – 14:09
• Consumer Confidence & Beauty Industry: 18:27 – 28:54
• Cats: The Jellicle Ball Revival: 34:40 – 46:30

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Episode Tone & Style

• The hosts blend rigorous, data-driven journalism with curiosity, informal banter, and moments of cultural enthusiasm.
• They challenge their guests but let each segment unfold conversationally—maintaining Bloomberg's signature blend of business authority with broad, human interest.

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In Summary

This weekend’s Businessweek delivers a multifaceted tour through America's economy in 2026: caution and cracks in finance, squeezed but resilient consumers, retail adaptation, and risk-taking creativity on Broadway. Whether you’re watching the Fed, following beauty trends, or pondering how to revive a cultural classic, this episode serves up thoughtful analysis and memorable voices.

Transcript

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[Darrell]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Host]

is Bloomberg Business Week daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvick on Bloomberg Radio hi everyone.

[Darrell]

Welcome to the Bloomberg businessweek Week Weekend podcast. It was another busy week with the economic environment really top of mind. US Inflation accelerated in April on rising gasoline and grocery costs exceeding wage growth in a double whammy for already strained consumers and got to say, lowering the chance for an interest rate cut later on this year.

[Chris Rouser]

Plus, the Senate narrowly confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, setting up the most controversial leadership transition at the central bank in decades. Also really a test of its political independence with the slimmest confirmation margin ever.

[Darrell]

Yeah, no, it's going to be an interesting Fed going forward. With that in mind, we have a really great look at consumer health and how the lower and middle income consumers may be cutting back on spending to deal with the squeeze. Sometimes you just got to go to things that people just do on a regular basis. We caught up with the CEO of Sally Beauty who joined us to talk earnings and the company's third quarter outlook and again get that read on the Consumer.

[Chris Rouser]

Plus, the Hollywood Reporter calls it, quote, this season's must see Broadway revival. We catch up with the co directors of Cats, the Jellicle Ball. It's a musical revival nominated for nine Tony Awards.

[Darrell]

All right. All of that to come. We begin with a smart look at private credit. The new head of the U.S. securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement division said keeping an eye on stress in the private markets is one of his top priorities during his first week on the job after funds saw a surge in redemption requests and limited withdrawals. I mean, this has been an ongoing story. Questions about private credit. Tim, as you well know over the last year or so and Double Line

[Chris Rouser]

CEO and CIO Jeff Gundlach telling Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld that the conditions were similar to what we saw back in 2007, highlighting significant risks and potential domino effects.

[Jeff Gundlach]

I think the mechanism is already underway and the mechanism is a decline or elimination of trust because there's been so much reporting that is questionable in terms of the underlying activity. When I point out the one that really grabbed my attention last fall was there was a fund that was marked at 100 and overnight it was marked at 81. Now that is a hard to understand markdown by a not insignificant sponsor, one with a good reputation and a very large staff supposedly doing underwriting and due diligence and tracking and all that sort of stuff and yet it goes down 19% overnight. But I've been saying this is not just about private credit. This is something that is endemic to market cycles. This happened in the IPO of dotcoms back in the late 90s. They had no, they had no revenue, no business plan and they were selling for large, large prices.

[Chris Rouser]

That was DoubleLine CEO and CIO Jeff Gundlach.

[Darrell]

We took a deeper look at some of the concerns with cracks in private credit with two informed voices. James Crombie, Bloomberg News senior editor of credit and Michael Gross, co founder and co CEO of SLR Capital Part, an independent asset manager focused on delivering flexible debt capital solutions to US based middle market businesses. He's also one of the co founders of Apollo Management, now known as Apollo Global Management.

[Michael Gross]

Yeah, it is pretty strong and it comes from the fact that we haven't been through a cycle in like 17 years. So everyone's kind of gotten spoiled. And to Jeff Gundlach's comments earlier, there are a lot of investors out there who don't quite realize what they were sold in terms of liquidity. And so when you started to see cracks in the system and retail investors being unable to get their money back, the media kind of picked up on that and brought private credit to the forefront. At the same time that all happened, all the concerns about, you know, AI and the impact on software came to roost. And all of a sudden we're sitting here having come through earnings seasons where for the first time in 10, 15 years you have BDC reporting negative ROE for the quarter. Why? Because their net asset values have been written down to reflect the mark to market of these software loans and other loans to the point that it more than exceeded their investment income for the quarter. And so this set off a whole set of nervousness.

[Darrell]

Kind of like a mortgage being underwater, right? Ish, yeah. Ish, yeah. Anyway, go ahead.

[Michael Gross]

Yeah, but you know, I think the discussion that should take place is whether this is kind of a permanent change or whether this is a mark to market change which has the ability to come back.

[Darrell]

What do you think?

[Michael Gross]

I think both. I think the narrative that the public BDCs are talking about when they talk about their navs decline for the quarter is that reflects spread, spreads widening. Now, yes, spreads did widen this past quarter. People should mark their portfolios accordingly to take that into effect. But I would argue some of that spread widening or discounts have been put in place, is permanent and can actually become lower. Why? Because all these software loans we're talking about, which are 20, 30% of people's exposure, still has real downside. Just the fact they're trading lower doesn't mean that's the bottom.

[Chris Rouser]

But is that, is that downside? And this is, you know, part of a broader conversation, Michael, but is the downside, is that warranted, like the potential downside warranted right now? Because there's a whole group of people that says, you know, this, this, these software as a service companies are not going to be replaced by cloud or by what you can build on cloud?

[Michael Gross]

They're not. And here's the issue as a private equity investor, if you have a portfolio of software companies, five of them can do well and three can do zeros and you could still be okay.

[Darrell]

Yeah.

[Michael Gross]

In credit where we're making 8, 9, 10, 11%, we have to be close to perfect. We have to make money on our loans 99% of the time so we can get net returns for investors. So if you're lending to software companies and three or four of them go belly up, that's a problem. It kind of doesn't matter what the rest of portfolio is. You put a real dent in it.

[Darrell]

James, come on in.

[James Crombie]

I'm interested, Mike, in the response from investors to this news, to your results. The stock is down a lot. When we spoke, we were talking about outperformance in your portfolio because of the relatively low exposure to software. You're certainly outperforming on that basis. But now I'm looking at the stock, I think it was down the most since March 2020 and it's down at a four year low right now. What do you make of that?

[Michael Gross]

It's obviously disappointing. I can control a lot of things. I can't control how our stock trades. What I will say is when I think about the fundamentals, this quarter we had zero non accruals. Our net asset value was down 50 basis points, whereas the peers were down 200 to 1,000 basis points. And our ROE for the quarter was 7%. We were one of four or five public BDCs who had a positive ROE for the quarter. And the reason we're able to accomplish all that is. To your earlier comment, we have 2% software exposure and the vast majority of our loans are asset based loans in specialty finance strategies as opposed to the traditional cash flow loans which are exhibiting this volatility.

[Chris Rouser]

So you think investors are getting it wrong?

[Michael Gross]

I think investors are partially getting it wrong. I think we lowered our dividend to reflect what our current earnings power is. We wanted to take the pressure off the investment team to go do investments just for the sake of supporting a dividend. Because we are very conservative, we have tools in place to kind of rebuild our income. And importantly, the fact that we restart our dividend was not credit related, it wasn't loss related, it was voluntary based on what we think the current earnings levels are.

[James Crombie]

Last time that we talked, you told me you were buying the stock because it was so cheap. Are you doing the same now?

[Michael Gross]

I likely will.

[Darrell]

But not yet.

[Michael Gross]

Not yet. I haven't yet.

[Chris Rouser]

Why wait?

[Michael Gross]

I have to have the window period opened up.

[Tim Stanweck]

Okay.

[Darrell]

Okay. So it's.

[Chris Rouser]

But at these levels you're buying, I think it's interesting.

[Michael Gross]

Okay. For sure.

[Darrell]

How closely do you watch the macro in terms of maybe putting additional pressure on your investments and just the private credit world overall?

[Michael Gross]

I mean, of course we watch it. You know, we watch what's going on in Iran, we watch what's going on with oil prices. But fortunately for us, given that we're not predominantly a cash flow lender, we're not really impacted. The value of the receivables that we lend against and the inventory lend against really aren't impacted by these factors because importantly, this collateral turns over quickly. These aren't five year assets, they're assets that turnover in 30 to 60 days.

[James Crombie]

I think if you step back and look at what was being reported out of Milken, there was a lot of talk about private credit and we had a lot of discussion around trust and I think Jeff mentioned that as well. That trust is hard to win and very easy to lose and it's lost now. How do you get it back?

[Michael Gross]

By performing, by following through what we say and continue to show people that we have a very defensive portfolio. It's extremely conservative. That's going to perform in good markets as well as bad markets.

[Chris Rouser]

To piggyback off of James's question, is there a chance with the volatility that we've seen and the negative headlines that we've seen when it comes to private credit, it's turned off a class of investors that you might have thought would be available to buy in.

[Michael Gross]

It's a great question because if you think about the vast majority of investors in public BDCs are retail investors, those people get scared first and those people that follow trends, we are seeing incredible interest still in private credit and specifically what we do from institutions and high net worth family offices, there's a real desire to be in private credit. People realize that this is a long term asset class that makes sense. And if you invest the right managers and the sophisticated people are saying to themselves, I already have exposure to traditional cash flow lending. Where can I get differentiated exposure within private credit that's not correlated to the rest of the market.

[Darrell]

But do you think opening it up to more and more retail investors or individual investors that ultimately you're going to have so much money chasing, ultimately pressured to do deals that really just don't make sense?

[Michael Gross]

It's already happened.

[Darrell]

Yeah.

[Michael Gross]

I mean with the proliferation of these non traded BDCs, too much money was raised too quickly and that caused certain managers to lose discipline and put money out quickly just for the sake of putting it out.

[Darrell]

So should we slow it down in terms of the exposure.

[Michael Gross]

I think the manager should slow it down and have the discipline to not take in capital if there's not a good place to put it.

[James Crombie]

And in any shakeout there's a kind of a gravitation towards scale and liquidity and the safety of brands that you kind of know. We've done a piece that came out today just on how your old shop Apollo is actually benefiting, it seems by this turmoil and they're taking advantage, they have the scale to do that. Is it a question of, you know, size matters at this point and you have to be big to survive?

[Michael Gross]

I actually think personally it's the opposite. I think we've gone into a world where there's a diseconomy of scale by being too large and having targets of 1 trillion or 2 trillion of assets. Your focus is on accumulating assets and not investing it. And you need to go after bigger companies which have more options in liquid market. By being a niche player, assuming you have the right resources and capital base and cost of capital, you can go after different seams within private credit that offer differentiated and better return actually with less risk.

[Darrell]

So do you think that Apollo year old firm is setting itself up for some problems in the future just because of its size and forcing it?

[Michael Gross]

I don't. I think, you know, you know I'm biased because I came out of Apollo

[Darrell]

and I didn't mean to put you on the spot, but I'm just curious

[Michael Gross]

and I'm a big fan of Mark Rowan. I think he's one of the most brilliant people in the business. He's an investor first, so he has these public goals but he's not going to be willing to sacrifice returns for doing it.

[James Crombie]

The redemptions we saw in May. Sorry, not May, last month and the month before. We're setting ourselves up for another round of that. Very, very soon. It'll be Groundhog Day in June and

[Darrell]

just got about 15, 20 seconds.

[Michael Gross]

Yes, you will see similar redemptions because once people start, they're not going to stop.

[Chris Rouser]

That was Michael Gross, co founder and CEO of SLR Capital Partners. Also with us, James Crombie, Bloomberg News senior editor who covers credit.

[Darrell]

And I just want to mention we did have a private credit story out in our Private credit weekly newsletter and it just pointed out how KKR, BlackRock and Apollo Global Management are taking steps to address issues with their private credit funds which have become reputational stains despite being a small part of their assets. So the ongoing watch continues coming up.

[Chris Rouser]

You've heard of the Lipstick Index? You have Carol, right?

[Darrell]

Yeah. Haven't you?

[Denise Polonis]

Come on.

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah, I have.

[Darrell]

You know.

[Chris Rouser]

Does it still exist?

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I don't know.

[Darrell]

But it's like that spending on a little indulgence when things are tight in the economy.

[Chris Rouser]

Well, the CEO of Sally Beauty stops by and she gave us her read on the economy and consumer following her company's most recent earnings report will say,

[Darrell]

touching at my roots. Consider it not discretionary. It's kind of crucial. Hey, you're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek. This is Bloomberg.

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[Darrell]

Vast majority of Americans worried about high prices in 2025, and a growing share grew anxious about the job market as well. That's according to an annual Federal Reserve survey.

[Chris Rouser]

Amid near zero job growth last year, 42% of adults reported that finding or keeping a job was either a minor or major concern. That's up from 37% in 2024. Now get this. About 9 in 10 respondents said they were concerned about price increases. That's According to the Fed's 2025 Survey of Household economics and decision making. The survey was conducted in October, and it did come months before the war in Iran drove up gasoline prices, which has sparked the fastest inflation in years.

[Darrell]

Lower and middle income consumers are getting hit by higher costs particularly hard. And it's starting to show in the outlook for makers of consumer products, including the beauty industry. On a conference call with investors after earnings when the retailer gave a weak outlook for the third quarter, Sally Beauty warned it's seeing pressure in stores that identify as low income and frugality among lower middle income consumers.

[Chris Rouser]

We caught up with Denise Polonis, president and CEO of Sally Beauty Holdings. She joined us from Plano Texas, we

[Denise Polonis]

had a great second quarter. So our overall sales were up 2.3%. Comp sales up 1.3%. And real outperformance on the consumer side with our Sally brand up 4.4% here in the U.S. but that said, we do serve a lower middle income consumer. And so we watch them be more choiceful in their behavior, which means they don't replace things like blow dryers or flat irons if they don't need them. But they're buying what matters to them right now, which is hair color. It's nail gel, it's press on nails. And those pieces continue to see strength. But as we watch a consumer that continues to get a little bit more pressured by gas prices, we're conscious of the fact that they're feeling a little bit more stretched.

[Darrell]

So if the war continues, energy prices continue, Denise, you think then this trend continues in the current quarter, I'm assuming you're still seeing kind of this restraint, if you will, among some of your consumers.

[Denise Polonis]

Yeah, to date we're seeing the same restraint that we've seen the last few quarters. I think we're just a little wary that it could get a little bit worse as we get out of Q2 and tax refunds are fully absorbed into the economy. And if that gas price stays a little inflated, we can be watching for some concern. But what I'd say right now is stylists still have busy chairs, they're still serving a lot of customers, they're seeing good business come through and that consumer continues to buy. We saw both transactions and ticket each up 2% in our US Sally business. So good news, just watchful.

[Chris Rouser]

What, what are they, what are they buying differently? Are they trading down a little bit? Is it, is there, do you offer at least on the side of, of where people are buying the consumables, you know, the shampoos, the conditioners, those things that people use on their nails. Are people trading down in price point?

[Denise Polonis]

You know, I think what they're doing is they're really trading into Sally to some extent. So for those folks who color their hair, a lot of them share between coloring in a salon and coloring at home. Our color business was up 12% in the U.S. and so what does that mean? It means somebody might be going to the salon a little less frequently and maybe doing their root touch up at home or going to a nail salon is very expensive. And so our nail business was up 3% as people were trading in and saying, I can get a lot of this look at home. For a lot less cost.

[Darrell]

So do you think, are you frustrated then with investor reaction here?

[Denise Polonis]

You know, I can't predict the market anymore. I certainly think that we've got a strong business with a lot of momentum behind us. You know, we continue to be in the first half of the year, our EPS is up 8% versus last year. Lots of good things to be looking forward to, the right amount of cash to keep investing in the business. So my hope is the market will catch up once there's a little less. Maybe worry about consumer discretionary.

[Chris Rouser]

What about geographies? Particular strength in different parts of the country, particular weakness in other parts. What can you tell us?

[Denise Polonis]

No, we've seen pretty consistent behavior across the U.S. you know, I think what we always watch is we always watch border stores. We watch lower income stores. They might index a little bit lower than what we'll see across the fleet as a whole. But. But as the geographies go, not a lot of difference.

[Darrell]

Well, I'm always, you know, curious and we love Denise, talking to folks like yourself where you do have a great window into the consumer. And you know, we say consumer but there's all kinds of consumers, right? There are wealthier consumers which can shrug off a lot of stuff. There are other consumers that, you know, middle income and so on that feel these higher energy prices and it's an impact and you have to make some choices. Is there anything though that you're seeing within the different consumer segments that says to you that we could be headed for something more significant in terms of an economic slowdown or is it just, you think, reactionary to higher energy prices? And if energy prices come down, things kind of go back to quote, unquote, normal.

[Denise Polonis]

The best I can see is it feels a bit more reactionary right now. You know, overall consumer trends are pretty consistent. Transactions are healthy. So it's not as if customers are not coming in. You know, I think what we'd watch for, I watch for is if grocery prices or other things started to tick back up and there was more pressure beyond just gas prices. We aren't seeing that yet. So I'm certainly hoping that this is a period in time and as we head through the summer, we will see things feel maybe a little bit better for that end customer. If they don't, we serve our customer well with value. Our save while you skip the salon message can help drive hair color growth. We've got a great promotional offering and value offering for our stylists to be able to shop across color and care. And our business is generally resilient. You know, when we talk about comps at 1.3%, you know, we see. We see good performance. We might not see real high highs, but we don't see real low lows because at the end of the day, we participate in categories that customers need. If you start coloring your hair, you generally don't stop. If you love your nails and you want to take care of them, you're going to do that. If you want healthy hair, you're going to come and get styling treatments, you're going to get serums and masks. And we will keep being there for our customers.

[Darrell]

So top of mind, Obviously, you want to watch what customers are up to, what salons are up to, but beyond terms of the macro, what is top of mind for you, Denise, as you look at, you know, kind of so many things that are coming at folks that run companies just like you, you

[Denise Polonis]

know, I'm really looking at the places where we can differentiate and where other companies can differentiate as well. So our e commerce business is up 28% in the Sally business in the U.S. we just recently launched on TikTok Shop, a really important place to be because that's where customers are and that's where they're engaging with beauty. And so the more we can respond to that, or our licensed colorist on demand program, where once again, if that consumer is pressured and they need to learn how to color their hair at home, we've got a pro right there willing to help them walk along with them and help them have that be a successful journey. So things where we can drive growth while that customer might be feeling a little pinched.

[Michael Gross]

Yeah.

[Chris Rouser]

Denise, talk a little bit more about finding those new customers and bringing them in through these channels. How do you know? You know, how do you follow the customer from that TikTok journey and then maybe they end up in the store.

[Denise Polonis]

Yeah. So with the TikTok journey, you know, they'll definitely start on TikTok shop, but those orders are all fulfilled by us. So our ability to understand that customer and see their journey, we feel pretty good about. You know, we've done work in black box work with some of our other marketplace partners, and we've seen about 75% of those transactions through places like DoorDash be incremental channel business to us, which we think is great news and is bringing a new customer into the Sally fold. Overall, our marketing campaigns with what we can do with performance marketing and then trace those activities back into our customer fold. You know, our customer database, customer information management continues to get better, to let us watch those trends. And we've seen new growth, we've seen customer new customer growth, we've seen reactivated customers picking up. And importantly with our core customers, our good everyday shoppers, frequency is going up. So you know, feel like all the, all the engines are firing the right way around understanding our customer on the Sally side of the business.

[Darrell]

Hey, one thing I want to ask you. A year ago when you guys reported earnings, you extended your buyback program through September of 2029. What's your best use of cash right now in your view?

[Denise Polonis]

Yeah, we really are focused on three things. First and foremost, investing behind the business. So whether that is supporting our marketplaces, digital campaigns, our Sally ignited store refresh that is starting, that is first and foremost. Secondly, we're managing to a really good debt position. So we have a targeted net leverage ratio of 1.5 to 2. We're at the 1.5 level. So we're still doing a little bit of pay down. And then we've committed to invest about 50% of our free cash flow back into share buybacks. So we're really firing across all those dimensions and believe that as you can see with the stock price today, you know, there's some good value for us to be purchasing there. But most importantly, we have the cash we need to invest in the business and that's going to be our primary objective go forward.

[Darrell]

And what about in terms of the labor force? We just came off of a jobs report on Friday and this is really important. We think about this in terms of what the Fed may or may not do if we see weakness in the labor market. We didn't get that on Friday necessarily. But what about when you need workers? Are you, you able to fill them? Are you holding off on hiring in terms of maybe managing costs A little bit. What's your position?

[Denise Polonis]

Yeah, out in the field, in both our stores and our distribution centers, we are able to hire as we need to. We've actually seen turnover slow, so voluntary turnover has gone down, which is great for us because that drives retention and good understanding of our customers and our business. Amongst our, our store teams, you know, in our support center we are always frugal in terms of how we manage headcount and cost. We'll continue to do that, but we don't have any plans to either stop hiring or to ramp up hiring. I think we're going to be pretty status quo in the near term.

[Chris Rouser]

In other words, low hire, low fire.

[Denise Polonis]

Exactly.

[Darrell]

No robots coming. You know, Elon wants to put Robots everywhere.

[Denise Polonis]

You know, we love AI. We're driving it hard in personalization and on the marketing side of our house. But at the moment, we need every person that we've got to keep growing our business.

[Chris Rouser]

That was Denise Polonis, president and CEO of Sally Beauty Holdings.

[Darrell]

All right, so I feel like, you know, that fed survey for 2025, and concerns and anxiety that certainly consumers were feeling. And we heard from Denise really about the lower income consumer or middle income, you know, what they are feeling and feeling stretched. But at the same time, first of all, a couple things we did get us retail sales this past week, and they advanced for a third month in April, pointing to some signs of consumer resilience despite those sharply higher gasoline prices. So we saw the value of retail purchases. Remember, it's the value. So if things are more expensive, maybe this bucket gets larger. This report suggesting higher than usual tax refunds and a stock market rally that help provide a financial cushion against mounting inflationary pressures. But it's unclear how long that will sustain robust demand. And this is kind of, I feel like the debate that we keep trying to find out about because it does feel like we hear in some instances that consumers are feeling really stretched.

[Chris Rouser]

It's interesting, though, because that's certainly part of it. But as the saying goes, watch what consumers do, not what they say. So, you know, you can look at surveys, you can look at the data, and those, those could tell different stories. There's also the anecdotal stuff that, that you and I have based on some reporting that we were able to do. We actually spent some time after their investor day with the leadership of a firm. It's the Buy now, pay later firm. Rob o' Hare was there. He's chief Financial officer. Max Levchin, the chairman, CEO and founder. He's part of the PayPal mafia. He was at this event that we went to, and also Michael Linford, the chief operating officer. And we wanted to ask about the consumer and how the consumer is doing. And Michael basically said from our vantage point, from our data, the consumer is looking really good.

[Darrell]

And we pushed him to be fair. Right. Like he. They talked about the macro and. And then we kind of came back and be like, really? Because that's not always what we hear. And you saw it even in some of the company earnings reports.

[Chris Rouser]

It was interesting to hear in the context of higher inflation and higher gas prices.

[Darrell]

Yeah, exactly, exactly. I will say one measure of one of the reports this week of consumer sentiment at its lowest on record. And many economists expect spending growth to be sluggish should inflation persist. Corporate executives have already flagged, some consumers have begun to pull back, and that's what we found off of earnings. But we continue to see it in some of the stories that cross the Bloomberg.

[Chris Rouser]

Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek, cats like you've never seen it or heard it before. We catch up with the directors of the new Tony nominated revival and we

[Darrell]

also have joining with us. I'm not going to give it away. One big fan has actually seen it

[Denise Polonis]

a couple of times.

[Darrell]

It was fun to do that with him. Stick around everybody. This is Bloomberg.

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[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Host]

this is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.

[The Hartford Insurance Narrator]

30.

[Chris Rouser]

If you've been paying attention to us over the past couple years, then by now you've seen Cats, the Jellicle Ball. Because close to two years ago, we were having a conversation with Chris Rouser of Bloomberg Pursuits about how the costumes were made. It was based on a story from James Tarmi. If you missed it, be sure to check it out on The Terminal or bloomberg.com but back then, our team called it a viral new show. I remember Chris saying to us that we absolutely had to see it.

[Denise Polonis]

He did.

[Chris Rouser]

Now the Hollywood Reporter is out calling it, quote, this season's must see Broadway revival.

[Darrell]

We've got with us Bill Rauch and Jalen Livingston. They are co directors of Cats, the Jellicle Ball. Bill is also artistic director at the Perlman Performing Arts Center. Also with us is our own Chris Rouser, Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at large. Chris, as we said, he's also the guy that we reach out to when we need to go somewhere and figure out what to go see. Welcome. Welcome. Congratulations. How did this first come together? Did you guys call Andrew Lloyd Webber? Like, how does this happen?

[Bill Rauch]

Eventually.

[Darrell]

But how did it start to, like, there's always either people sitting around a table thinking, oh my God, what if we just did this?

[Bill Rauch]

We both have our own stories about that.

[The Hartford Insurance Narrator]

Yeah.

[Bill Rauch]

About 30 years ago, I began to think about Andrew Lloyd Webber's musical Cats in a gay context. I thought about the possibility of Grizabella being an older gay man and a gay bar singing the song Memory. And that was the seed. But over time, we realized, of course, it's not a bar, it's a ball. And Grizabella is not a gay man. Grizabella is a transgender woman. And that is, in fact, what Cats, the local ball became.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

Yeah, I mean, it really started with that, that impulse from Bill and we were connected after I had started to have some really ingest Conversations with a roommate of mine about what if there was a production of Cats wherein no one was an actual cat and there weren't ears and there weren't tails.

[Darrell]

It sounds sacrilegious, but you kind of love it.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

And you just kind of called each other cat in the way that you did in the 20th century. Look at that cat. Look at that cool cat. That's a sly cat right there. And I was like, well, it's already kind of in the American vernacular. I bet there's a cultural context that you could put the show in. But I just assumed Andrew Lloyd Webber would never let such a radical change happen with the show. And then we were connected soon after that, because the casting director of that show was like, you need to talk to Bill, because Bill is also thinking along the exact same lines.

[Darrell]

So who calls Andrew Lloyd Webber?

[Bill Rauch]

We really. It was a group of us who figured out how to do the show in the context of ballroom. And we began to reach out to people in Andrew's company. And each person we talked to said, we think it's fantastic. We love the idea. It's going to be up to Andrew. And that was like a good year long process. And eventually Andrew said, yes.

[Tim Stanweck]

Can you talk a little bit more about how perfectly the world of Ballroom overlaps with structurally how Cats works? Because Cats, if you've seen it, it's not a linear plot line. It's essentially like a narrator announcer saying like, and look at this character. And like, that is very much how Ballroom works. And with the additional script work that they did, it maps almost perfectly into it. I've talked to so many people who say Cats has never worked this well, including Elaine Page. Right.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

It's been very exciting. We've had lots of Cats alum, both people who have been on stage and offstage who really relate to the show. There's people who have historically hated the musical and, and really enjoy themselves, and people who feel a lot of fidelity towards the original musical and enjoy themselves at the show as well. So there's a lot of that happening. It's very fascinating. But yeah, I do think that there is this kind of beautiful marriage between ballroom culture and Cats. Some of the themes of Cats that have always been there, themes of family, themes of tribe, themes of competition and one upmanship and who's gonna get the grand prize by the end of the night. You know, if you go to a ball, it is all centered around a competition where an identity is. Is made. Pageant. And I think that the mix between that and just working with the original T.S. eliot poetry and really finding new ways to interpret these humans, not as cats, but as humans. In the ballroom scene, there were all these ways that the show ended up dancing with ballroom that was really surprising.

[Bill Rauch]

One of the most fun aspects of the whole project was, was matching each song about each character with different categories in ballroom. And that was from early on. So many of them just completely locked into place and made perfect sense. So it does feel like T.S. eliot meant this all along and Andrew Lloyd Webber, it was just waiting to be excavated in this way.

[Chris Rouser]

How do you take a production like this, that was so successful downtown and bring it to Broadway?

[Jaelyn Livingston]

Well, I think one of the things you have to do first is to make a commitment to not copy and pasting an experience.

[Chris Rouser]

Like, is it. Is it a different. I mean, Chris, you've seen it both on Broadway.

[Darrell]

It's different, right?

[Chris Rouser]

Is it different?

[Tim Stanweck]

It's enhanced. I mean, when you take something to Broadway, you enhance it and it really is amped up. And do you get new productions and

[Chris Rouser]

stuff and like there needs to be additional funding and.

[Darrell]

Or the costumes get amped up because that's a big part, right, of this.

[Bill Rauch]

It's the amping up you're talking about. We have two lead producers who are extraordinary and many, many co producers. But the biggest thing we struggled with was how to make it work in a proscenium. Because at PAC nyc, it's a very immersive space. It's very, very flexible. There are cabaret tables. The Runway was 50ft long. So essentially on Broadway, we have twice as many audience members, but only half the space. And what was great about the exercise of figuring out how to tell the story on a Broadway stage, is it forced more focus and it allowed us to dig into the story in an even deeper way.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

And I would say that by the end of Off Broadway, we were able to say what really works about this. What is the thing that if we had to take it somewhere else, people would go. But I can't lose this. And to my surprise, I really would have assumed that it was the 50 foot long Runway. And I think that's the expectation of the thing that you think you might miss. But the truth is, what felt life or death for this production was making sure that the audience felt like they were in a different relationship with each other. And that feels even more amplified on Broadway because you're on Broadway and you can't believe you're hooping and hollering next to people on Broadway.

[Darrell]

Were you hooping and hollering?

[James Crombie]

Well, Speaking.

[Tim Stanweck]

Speaking of life and death, it is not an easy time to take a musical to Broadway. I mean, was this anxiety provoking? Can you talk about how much it was capitalized for or, like, you know, how risky it felt to take it from. From your theater to this huge stage?

[Bill Rauch]

I think the final numbers on the capitalization are not known even to us. But it was. It was not cheap. It's not cheap to do a 23 actor on stage musical on Broadway in today's economy. But it was. There was just such passionate belief in the project from the get go from our producers.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

Yeah. I will say. I mean, you say this all the time. Us being able to accomplish the show in the proscenium means that the show gets to have a longer life. Means that we don't make something that's so expensive that we can't eventually take it on the road or take it to another country or. So there's always the negotiation between, like, what is the budget, what is the scale? How do we accomplish this without an audience ever knowing?

[Darrell]

All right, I'm just gonna.

[Chris Rouser]

I'm just gonna do not call me out, Darrell. Just call me out. What did I just Google? No, I googled proscenium.

[Darrell]

Yeah.

[Michael Gross]

No, no, no.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

But I was like, the same thing.

[Darrell]

I was gonna do it. And I'm like, so what exactly is that?

[Bill Rauch]

It's a traditional Broadway theater.

[Darrell]

Yeah.

[Bill Rauch]

Where most of the audience is sitting in what we think of as the audience, and most of the action happens on a stage behind the proscenium arch, behind the picture of the proscenium arch. So our job was to break that proscenium as much as we could with 80 audience members on stage. We have the actors out in the audience all the time. And to really make it that everybody's in one room together.

[Darrell]

Well, and not to go back to the original Cats, but let's go there. But that's how you could actually sit on. On the side of the stage. And I also remember, like, when it opened, I saw it a couple times.

[Chris Rouser]

Yeah, I did too. It was my first Broadway show.

[Darrell]

But, like, the cats coming down the aisle and stuff. Like, so, like, it's really wonderful when

[Jaelyn Livingston]

you can figure out how to catch Ballroom as well.

[Tim Stanweck]

Right.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

Like, even that element of Cats from the original, in terms of actors everywhere, that's the exact same kind of energy you want to create at a ball. So even down to that detail, where were in conversation with what was already in the event of Cats from the

[Bill Rauch]

very beginning, Jaelyn mentioned taking the show on the road. And I just want to say one of the things we are so proud of is if you are somebody from the ballroom world or if you think ballroom meets waltzing and foxtrotting, like, whatever your degree of knowledge, if you love Cats, if you've never been exposed to Cats, everybody of all ages loves this show and. And we can say that it is a joy bomb and we are so proud to be sharing it. And so we want it to have a good, long life on Broadway and we want to take it out on the road and get as many people to see it as possible.

[Darrell]

How many times have you seen it?

[Tim Stanweck]

I saw it twice downtown so far. Once, Twice downtown and then once on Broadway. The first time I went, I got a group ticket discount and brought 50 gay guys from Brooklyn.

[Chris Rouser]

And then try that on Broadway when

[Tim Stanweck]

Temptress is about to hit, like, the big, you know, the big Touch me big moment. And I just looked around the theater and there were, you know, like the theater was full of people just waiting for her to go. And so, yeah, I mean, it was really magical. So from the pac, the Perlman Performing Arts center is part of your goal to create shows that move on from there or how does this fit into that project for you?

[Bill Rauch]

Our mission at PAC NYC is to bring people together in that historic site at the World Trade Center. We want to bring people together from as many different communities as possible to be in community together in our theaters. And we believe in every project we do. So when one can have a longer life, it is an absolute gift. It's not the only measure of success at all, but it is one lovely measure of success.

[Darrell]

I have to go see it. I have to go see it. I feel really good. What did Andrew say?

[Tim Stanweck]

What did Andrew Loretta say when she got him on the phone?

[Jaelyn Livingston]

Oh, he really was just tickled by the amount of joy. And like, he often, anytime, at least I'm talking to him and he's talking about the show. That's the first thing he mentions is it's just so joyful, isn't it?

[Darrell]

Has he come to see it?

[Bill Rauch]

Oh, many times.

[Darrell]

Oh, he has.

[Bill Rauch]

In fact, one of his great quotes is, I've never been in a theater with as much love as I've been in for Cats, the Jellicoe Ball.

[Jaelyn Livingston]

And it's been thrilling to watch him, like, receive the lyrics and the poetry in a new way through this lens as well.

[Darrell]

I feel like that's what arts and culture, like, arts is about. Right? Like, you take something and just it evolves. Right. And I don't know, a rebirth or an innovative way. I don't know.

[Bill Rauch]

It's pretty cool. A revival.

[Darrell]

A revival. But it evolves.

[Tim Stanweck]

And these guys are nominated for a Tony for it.

[Darrell]

You are? Congratulations.

[Bill Rauch]

Nine Tony nominations.

[Darrell]

That's a pretty big deal. That's a pretty big deal. So, Chris, next time will you take Tim and me?

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah, you guys will get a group discount.

[Chris Rouser]

That was Chris Rouser, Bloomberg Pursuits Editor at large, with Bill Rauch and Jaelyn Levingston, co directors of Cats, the Jellicle Ball. Bill also artistic director at the Perlman Performing Arts Center.

[Darrell]

And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thank you so much for joining us.

[Chris Rouser]

I'm Tim Stanweck.

[Darrell]

And I'm Carol Massar. Have a good and safe weekend, everyone.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast Host]

This is the the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Darrell]

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