Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend – November 21st, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Date: November 22, 2025
Overview
This episode dives into the pivotal themes shaping the late-2025 economy: the state of the U.S. labor market as long-delayed data finally emerges; scrutiny of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector’s boom—examining whether it's "bubble" territory, led by Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings; mounting stress signs in private credit; and evolving dynamics in beauty, crypto, and leadership. The hosts are joined by business leaders, market analysts, and behavioral experts who provide candid, topical insights.
Key Segments & Insights
1. U.S. Labor Market Update & The Gig Economy
[01:46–09:24]
Key Points
- Delayed Data Catch-Up: The U.S. September jobs report, postponed due to a government shutdown, shows job growth picking up but unemployment ticking higher, suggesting stabilization before the shutdown.
- SMB Labor Dynamics: Erica Gessert, CFO at Upwork, shares how AI investments are transforming talent matching, with SMBs (small and medium-sized businesses) seeing flat demand but finding affordable, quality AI talent on the platform.
- AI’s Impact on Hiring: Upwork’s AI tools automate job postings, proposals, and talent matching, increasing fill rates and efficiency. The complexity (and value) of AI-involved jobs is rising, with higher spend per client, but low-ticket "simple" jobs decreasing.
- Human + AI Synergy: AI isn’t replacing jobs outright—rather, “Humans with AI will replace humans without AI.” (Erica Gessert, [08:33])
Notable Quotes
- Erica Gessert ([08:33]): “AI is not going to replace humans. Humans with AI will replace humans without AI.”
- Erica Gessert ([06:23]): “Now we do have AI interviewer... our companion Uma... is now recruiting talent... now we're seeing fill rates much higher using the AI recruiter than with a human recruiter.”
2. AI, Tech Markets & The Nvidia Earnings Debate
[09:27–14:10], [16:40–29:42]
Key Points
- Nvidia Earnings Reaction: Nvidia’s strong results calmed bubble fears, for now, highlighting robust demand for its AI chips.
- Sustained Skepticism: Despite earnings, questions persist about AI sector spending, ROI for companies investing in expensive compute, and the bubble parallels with the dotcom era.
- Dave Lee (Bloomberg Opinion): Stresses that while Nvidia is solid, clients like data centers and startups (e.g., OpenAI) could be at risk due to high costs and uncertain business models.
- Chris Whalen (Whalen Global Advisors): Compares current AI investment and private credit markets to precarious times in the past; sees institutional credit risk building out of view (“so much out there that needs to be fixed”). He’s skeptical about AI’s potential, seeing current LLMs as glorified, expensive search tools unlikely to justify the investment boom.
Notable Quotes
- Dave Lee ([12:17]): “No one’s calling Nvidia the next pets.com... but Nvidia’s clients could be the next pets.com—OpenAI, burning billions without a clear path to profit.”
- Chris Whalen ([18:24]): “I think it just speaks to a decline in standards in the investment world... Most of my astute clients, the banks I really respect, don't see anything they like.”
- Chris Whalen ([22:46]): “We're not even doing that with AI, we're just simply throwing muscular search at it... That’s not intelligence. So I think a lot of the spend... is going to end up being wasted.”
3. Private Credit, Lending, and Economic Risks
[18:00–29:42]
Key Points
- Private Credit Under Scrutiny: Widespread investment in risky, opaque credit by both big and retail investors may result in substantial, but obscure, losses. Most impacts will be institutional, not consumer-facing.
- Losses and Transparency: Losses are larger than they seem because of private nature (commercial real estate restructuring, for example).
- Spending Frenzy Link to AI: The cycle of investment and asset inflation is driving up prices everywhere, replicating patterns from previous bubbles.
Notable Quotes
- Chris Whalen ([24:07]): “The desire for investable assets has just overwhelmed these opportunities. We see inflation everywhere we look in the financial markets today.”
4. Banking, Lending, and Affordable Housing: CEO Frank Sorrentino on Regional Economics
[32:20–42:56]
Key Points
- Economic Robustness in NY/NJ: Sorrentino (Connect One Bank) observes New York regional businesses and construction remain strong, with positive outlook from business owners despite caution about the future.
- Affordable Housing Debate: Rent stabilization and politics in New York create challenges but also opportunities; increasing supply through construction is key to lowering rents.
- Fed Outlook: Sorrentino expects the Fed might cut rates at the December meeting, notes inflation isn’t as embedded as feared, mostly due to tariffs.
Notable Quotes
- Frank Sorrentino ([38:45]): “For the balance of the rent-stabilized properties... they're going to be fine... I'd like to see us do more in that regard here in New York City.”
- Frank Sorrentino ([42:09]): “I do believe that the smaller businesses are going to catch up soon... My hope would be that [the Fed] cut rates another 25 basis points in December.”
5. Crypto’s Crash & The Evolution of Digital Assets
[43:48–56:44]
Key Points
- New Crypto Lows: After a $1T+ market cap drawdown, Bitcoin fell to a 7-month low, dragged down by broader risk repricing.
- Crypto as an Alt Asset: Zach Pandel (Grayscale Investments) describes crypto as a “$4 trillion alternative asset class,” trading like frontier tech and serving as a high-volatility diversifier.
- ETFs & Market Access: The rise of crypto ETFs has broadened access, though the core value remains in decentralized mining, not the identity of asset holders.
- Regulation & Use Cases: Stablecoins, tokenization, and regulatory reforms are making crypto more mainstream; bipartisan support in Congress sustains momentum.
- Skepticism Remains: Crypto’s utility is still debated—widespread real-world use is nascent.
Notable Quotes
- Zach Pandel ([48:08]): “Absolutely for better. [ETFs] are broadening access to this asset class to a much wider range of investors... makes taxes easier, estate planning easier.”
- Zach Pandel ([55:17]): “In the long run, it doesn’t matter [who’s in office] because this is innovative technology that’s going to transform the financial system... in 20 years’ time the technology... will be everywhere.”
6. Leadership: What Actually Makes Teams Thrive? (with John Levy)
[59:48–72:08]
Key Points
- Rethinking Leadership: Leadership isn’t about “soft skills” like humility or empathy, says behavioral scientist John Levy; the universal trait is simply having followers.
- Team Performance: The biggest predictor of effective teams is emotional intelligence—correlated with the number of women on a team, not individual IQ or likability.
- The Power of Belonging: High-achievers often still feel like outsiders; great teams foster environments where members feel belonging and coordinate well, not just follow charismatic leaders.
Notable Quotes
- John Levy ([61:02]): “There was only one trait that was common across all leaders: they have followers. It's so self-referential, and it’s kind of ridiculous.”
- John Levy ([65:16]): “More women on a team means, on average, more emotional intelligence... then the team can function better and outperform.”
7. The Business of Beauty: Ulta’s Quiet Domination and Sally Beauty’s Secret to Growth
[75:02–86:23]
Key Points
- Ulta’s Suburban Success: Amanda Mull (Bloomberg Businessweek) reveals how Ulta thrives by targeting suburban malls with large-format stores that cater to all price points and carry mainstream/luxury goods side by side, plus customer-centric operations.
- Sally Beauty’s Resilient Consumer: CEO Denise Paulonis discusses how beauty spending remains “resilient but choiceful,” with hair color a standout (DIY and touch-up between salon visits). New product innovation, marketplace partnerships (Uber Eats, DoorDash, Instacart), and agile supply chains buffer against tariffs and inflation.
- Beauty Industry Trends: Consumers toggle between frugality and splurging, focusing on essentials or experience-based purchases (e.g., hair coloring, vivid color trends).
Notable Quotes
- Amanda Mull ([76:01]): “Ulta opened its 1500th US location... more than twice the locations that Sephora has in the U.S... their theory is if you can put that all under one roof... make it really easy for people.”
- Denise Paulonis ([81:50]): “The consumer that we’re seeing is resilient but is choiceful... They’ll splurge on experiences, on special products, but pull back where they can.”
Memorable Moments & Quotes
- AI Reality Check — Chris Whalen ([22:46]): “We’re not even doing [natural language processing]... just throwing muscular search at it and saying ‘okay, what’s the top 10?’... That’s not intelligence.”
- Crypto’s True Value — Zach Pandel ([47:49]): “The premise of this technology is taking intermediaries out of the financial system… but there will be a lasting role for certain intermediaries, including fund managers.”
- Leadership Redefined — John Levy ([61:23]): “The reason we follow somebody is because... they cause us to feel that there’ll be a new and better future.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- U.S. Labor Market & Upwork (Gig Economy): [01:46–09:24]
- Nvidia Earnings & AI Bubble Debate: [09:27–14:10], [16:40–29:42]
- Private Credit, Lending, Economic Risk: [18:00–29:42]
- Affordable Housing & Regional Banking—Frank Sorrentino: [32:20–42:56]
- Crypto Crash, ETFs & Digital Assets: [43:48–56:44]
- Leadership and Team Effectiveness—John Levy: [59:48–72:08]
- Beauty Industry: Ulta & Sally Beauty: [75:02–86:23]
Tone & Style
The tone throughout was dynamic yet analytical, with hosts offering light banter but foregrounding expert, data-driven insight. Guests provided frank, sometimes skeptical takes, giving balance to both hype and pessimism within each sector.
This summary provides a roadmap of the episode’s coverage for listeners new and old—spotlighting the strategies, risks, and real-world shifts shaping business, leadership, and consumer behavior as 2025 wraps up.