Boaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off’ Private Credit Funds

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Boaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off’ Private Credit Funds

Date: February 24, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Kat Doherty (Bloomberg News), Lauren Goodwin (New York Life Investments), Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech), Elise Giuliano (Columbia University)

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Overview

This episode centers on growing concerns about risks in the private credit markets, highlighted by warnings from major financial figures such as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital. The conversation expands to cover regulatory transparency issues, parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, ongoing shifts in banking and investing, and concludes with an analysis of current geopolitical risks and economic impacts due to the protracted Russia-Ukraine war.

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Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Jamie Dimon’s Warning: Parallels to Pre-2008 Lending Risk

(Segment: 02:28–06:28)

• Dimon's comments at JPMorgan’s Investor Day in NYC drew strong parallels between today’s competitive lending environment and the years preceding the 2008 crisis.
  • “He’s starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis when a rush … to make loans ended disastrously.” — Carol Massar (03:18)
• Dimon is especially critical of non-bank lenders (e.g., Apollo, Blue Owl), claiming risky “dumb things” are happening in opaque corners of the market. He warns that risks have migrated outside highly-regulated banks.

Notable Quote (Jamie Dimon via Kat Doherty):

“A lot of what you saw in with the 2008 financial crisis was the money that was being handled, that at the end of the day, that was with the bank. So now that the money has moved away from the banks, it's behind the scenes...he’s saying that’s where the underlying stress is and he doesn’t know when [the cracks] might come through. But...it's a matter of the question being the timing.” — Kat Doherty, 05:00

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2. Lack of Transparency in Private Credit & The "Snowball Effect"

(Segment: 06:28–10:41)

• Kat Doherty emphasizes that unlike banks, private lenders operate with far less regulatory oversight and transparency. This makes the sector’s risks harder to detect and regulate.

• Boaz Weinstein’s perspective, delivered from Miami, echoed Dimon’s: “We are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” — Boaz Weinstein cited by Carol Massar (08:19)

• The “cockroach” metaphor is explored: once cracks appear, small issues multiply, potentially leading to market-wide stress. Doherty notes market pricing doesn’t reflect underlying loan stress — marking/valuing loans at 90 cents on the dollar, when real value may be far lower in distress.

  • “If you start to see those one offs become two, three, four, and all of a sudden it does build in and the stress can turn into something much bigger. That's what Dimon is calling out.” — Kat Doherty (07:45)

• Discussion of banks’ own entry into private credit: although banks criticize non-banks for these risks, they are also trying to compete in the same space, possibly amplifying systemic risks.

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3. Public Market Participation and 401ks

(Segment: 09:57–10:41)

• There's increasing pressure and debate about including more private credit in retirement plans like 401ks, raising new questions about investor protection, risk, and transparency.

  • “Full disclosure, you need to know. Right. Especially when you’re talking about people’s retirements…” — Carol Massar (10:11)

• Dimon, Weinstein, and others are firmly in the “concerned” camp regarding the trend and lack of oversight.

  • "Is Blue Owl one canary in the private market coal mine; is that the beginning, like Boaz Weinstein seems to say, the beginning of an undoing?” — Carol Massar (10:35)

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4. Inflation, Tariffs, and Economic Policy

(Segment: 13:31–20:47)

• The hosts and Lauren Goodwin (New York Life Investments) analyze inflationary pressures in light of recent Supreme Court tariffs ruling and fiscal stimulus.
  • “I don’t think we were ever going to be super clear on the impact that tariffs have directly to inflation.” — Lauren Goodwin (16:15)
  • Tariff-induced inflation is described as a fluctuating challenge, with market expectations continually pushed out (16:00–16:30).
  • Fiscal policy and supply chain changes are compounding these dynamics.
  • Goodwin also comments on AI’s uncertain but clearly disruptive impact on productivity and markets:
    • “None of us know…The way that productivity will be garnered from this technology is much more closely in the hands of the technology actors than in the macro and investment space…all disruptive.” — Lauren Goodwin (19:17)

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5. Meta–AMD Mega Data Center Deal

(Segment: 23:26–33:32)

• Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech) breaks down the significance of Meta’s huge partnership with AMD for 6 gigawatts of data center capacity, and what this means for AI hardware competition versus Nvidia.
  • The deal involves operational and financial milestones; Meta gets warrants on 160 million AMD shares that vest upon achieving ambitious technical and business goals.
  • “In one scenario…the AMD share price would need to hit $600 a share…there’s some way to go.” — Ed Ludlow (26:41)
  • Meta is diversifying its supply chain, not betting everything on any one supplier — treating these deals in part as insurance policies (29:47).
  • AMD is positioning itself as an alternative to Nvidia, especially for AI inference workloads.
  • Markets reacted with significant stock price movements, illustrating how strategic partnerships drive investor sentiment in the sector.

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6. Anthropic’s Cloud Expansion and Software Industry Partnerships

(Segment: 33:03–34:18)

• News that Anthropic is expanding cloud chatbot partnerships lifted related software stocks; Ed Ludlow unpacks what this means for the “AI threat” to traditional software firms.
  • The takeaway: integrating powerful AI assistants (agents) directly into platforms (such as Intuit), signaling a shift toward embedded AI in all business software.

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7. Russia–Ukraine War Update: Deadlock, Geopolitical Stakes, and Risks

(Segment: 37:27–48:00)

• Elise Giuliano (Columbia University) brings context on the stalled Russia-Ukraine war, now heading into its fifth year, and the prospects for peace.
  • “The end of the war unfortunately is not in sight…I think the most sober minded view about this is the view of Ukrainians.” — Elise Giuliano (38:49)
  • Putin’s goals are not just territorial but about keeping Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence, outside of the Western/NATO orbit. Even territorial settlement would not address the core dispute (40:39–41:45).
  • Western aid and NATO involvement remain fraught, mostly due to the risk of direct conflict with Russia as a nuclear power (42:33).
  • Russian war effort is sustained by enlisting poorer, rural citizens with outsized pay, resembling a “mercenary” army (44:00).
  • The risk of a future, repeated invasion remains high if Russia emerges with new territorial gains.
  • Giuliano critiques the US for reduced military support, suggesting more aggressive sanctions and military aid could alter the outcome (46:33–48:00).
  • “The US has a lot of tools…better enforcement of sanctions, and threats of military force by sending those weapons to Ukraine. The US is doing it right now with Iran...the US is not doing this [enough in Ukraine]…” — Elise Giuliano (46:40)

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Most Memorable Quotes

• “We are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” — Boaz Weinstein (08:11, via Carol Massar)
• “A snowball effect…you don’t need too much of these specific instances…if you start to see those one-offs become two, three, four…stress can turn into something much bigger.” — Kat Doherty (07:45)
• “He has not moved off of his initial goals…this is not about territory for Russia, at least for Putin. For Ukraine, this is about the viability, the sovereignty, the very existence of their state.” — Elise Giuliano (39:35–40:39)
• “The way productivity will be garnered from this technology is much more closely in the hands of the technology actors than in the macro and investment space…they’re all disruptive.” — Lauren Goodwin (19:17)
• “There isn’t even a kind of understanding among many Russians of why Russia is fighting this war…so a lot of people are calling the Russian army, a mercenary army at this point.” — Elise Giuliano (44:00)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Jamie Dimon’s warning & private credit concerns: 02:28–10:41
• Inflation, tariffs, and the macro outlook: 13:31–20:47
• Meta–AMD deal & chip industry competition: 23:26–33:32
• Anthropic/AI & software industry impacts: 33:03–34:18
• Russia–Ukraine war analysis with Elise Giuliano: 37:27–48:00

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Tone & Style

The discussion is analytical yet urgent, blending Wall Street skepticism with macroeconomic concern. Experts like Kat Doherty and Lauren Goodwin bring nuanced, data-driven arguments, while the hosts ensure complexity is accessible to business-minded listeners. The Russia-Ukraine war segment is sober, reflecting the gravity of ongoing geopolitical crises.

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Takeaways

• Private credit markets could be facing systemic risks reminiscent of pre-2008 as risky lending migrates outside regulated banks.
• Industry leaders (Dimon, Weinstein) are sounding alarms over transparency, oversight, and the potential for rapid contagion.
• The fight for dominance in AI compute shows how tech-company alliances and hardware innovation are reshaping financial markets and infrastructure demands.
• Global macroeconomic pressures are increasingly complex, with persistent inflation, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical conflict shaping investment decisions and economic forecasts.
• The Russia-Ukraine war remains deadlocked, with grim prospects for a quick resolution and significant global risk if Western aid falters.

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This episode offers a broad but cohesive look at financial market risks, technological disruption, and global political tensions—all essential listening for executives, investors, and anyone interested in the shifting dynamics of today’s economy.

Transcript

[Jacob Goldstein]

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[Carol Massar]

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[Jacob Goldstein]

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[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg on Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stone. Den of back on Bloomberg Radio. Well, let's get to one of our most read stories on the Bloomberg today.

[Tim Stone]

JP when this cross last night, first

[Carol Massar]

of all, we were on air actually when headlines started.

[Tim Stone]

Oh really?

[Carol Massar]

In terms of some financial metrics.

[Tim Stone]

So I saw this late yesterday and then, you know, three minutes later, Talia sends the email to because she's on

[Carol Massar]

top of it because she, I don't know how she does it. I feel like Bloomberg goes right to her brain.

[Tim Stone]

It's, it's wired in.

[Carol Massar]

It is wired in. It is one of our most read stories though on this Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, we're talking about him, asked about fierce competition across the fight financial industry, he said he's starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis when a rush, as you know, to make loans ended disastrously. We don't need to remind you how rough that was. Jamie Dimon made the comments yesterday at JP Morgan's Investor Day right here in New York City.

[Tim Stone]

Unfortunately, we did see this in 05,

[Ed Ludlow]

06 and 07, almost the same thing.

[Tim Stone]

The rising tide lifting all boats.

[Ed Ludlow]

Everyone was making a lot of money.

[Carol Massar]

I don't know how long it's going

[Public Advertising Voice]

to be great for everybody.

[Tim Stone]

I see a couple of people doing some dumb things. You know, they're just doing dumb things

[Public Advertising Voice]

to create ni or I say they're,

[Carol Massar]

you know, winning in the markets, business, something like that. All right. That of course, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at yesterday's Investor Day here in New York City looking rather casual,

[Tim Stone]

I was going to say a little different look than we usually see.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Yeah.

[Tim Stone]

But you know what, it was a lot of, a lot of snow yesterday.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. I don't know everybody like I felt like we all had our boots.

[Tim Stone]

So did Investor Day, though.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, they did.

[Elise Giuliano]

They did.

[Carol Massar]

They carried it through. All right. His comments definitely getting our attention to get even Tim who was home getting, you know, locked into what he had to say. Let's get more though on it. Cat Doherty is with us. She's Bloomberg News finance reporter right here in studio. Cat, whether it's cockroaches or he's making a weather forecast, when Jamie says something, it gets our attention. Tell us about the meeting and some of the things that stand out you're

[Kat Doherty]

right, but this stood out more so than the cockroaches comments. He's made those types of jabs at the private credit industry specifically before. And yes, it's gotten attention, but not in the same way that Tim's right. When this headline crossed last night, I think a lot of folks were clicking through and you can see in the interest even today, it's just continuing on and it's generating a lot of talk amongst banking colleagues that are really kind of diving into the parallels that Dimon is drawing today. And he's saying that he's seen a lot of his words, dumb things going on from his competitors across the street. He's not necessarily calling out the other banks, he's calling out the Apollos, the Blue Owls, these firms that have really generated and not just attention, but the money that they are handling that is outside of the banks. That is what Dimon is drawing attention to, saying that a lot of what you saw in with the 2008 financial crisis was the money that was being handled, that at the end of the day, that was with the bank. So now that the money has moved away from the banks, it's behind the scenes. He's saying that if the cracks start to emerge and you have the cockroaches, that again, he has called out before, that's not a new comment, but he's saying that that's where the underlying stress is and he doesn't know when. He didn't make a call yesterday. I think that's important to note. Yeah, of course. When this might actually come through. But he's saying it's a matter of, of the question being the timing. But he's thinking that it's going to happen at some point.

[Tim Stone]

I know you want to talk a little bit about the history and go what JP Morgan and what Jamie Dimon has seen because he is, you know, one of the people who was there through the financial crisis at the helm of the big bank. He's the only one. He's the only one.

[Carol Massar]

He's a man standing right among those big bank that said.

[Tim Stone]

And you touched on this a little bit, Cat, with what you said about, you mentioned Apollo, for example. What are the specific that, if any, that he called out or that we can infer from the quote unquote dumb things like what what is he saying?

[Kat Doherty]

He's referencing lending, lending practices that if you are going to affirm, let's keep with Apollo, but there are so many others that we could use as examples. The pricing on these loans is so much different than, let's say, how you price Apple stock. It's not as liquid, and so there might be underlying stress, but the price doesn't reflect that. But if there gets to a point like we've seen with some of the cockroach examples, where at the end of the day there's massive selling and then the price does have to reflect the underlying stresses, that's when if those things start to pile up, you could it's a snowball effect. And you had Boaz Weinstein today, he's down in Miami and he made very similar comments. He was saying that it is something that builds on itself and you don't need too much of these specific instances that some are calling just one offs and saying that it's not representative of the entire industry. But if you start to see those one offs become two, three, four, and all of a sudden it does build in and the stress can turn into something much bigger. That's what Dimon is calling out.

[Carol Massar]

Boaz Weinstein SABA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT founder, you're right. Saying all you need is a snowball to start going down the hill. It started. Blue Owl is right in the middle of that. I think we are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car. So, I mean, this cat, this gets to the lack of transparency, especially when it comes to the private markets. We keep talking about this and so I'm not going to ask you to necessarily go into, you know, a primer on the private markets world, but that's part of what we're getting to. The banks are highly regulated. A lot of investment firms are highly regulated. Right. Oversight and transparency in what is kind of on their balance sheet.

[Kat Doherty]

That's right. But when we're talking about these loans that are outside of the banks, the mark to market, you might be able to hold a loan and say that it is worth, let's say, 90 cents on the dollar. But the stress that's underlying might, if it does eventually trade, trade down to 60. Now that's going to be a lot different in the private credit market than it is with the banks, especially if the banks are the ones that are holding these loans, they have to disclose and pricing is a little bit more transparent. But there are parallels. And what's also interesting is that the banks too are getting into private credit. They're setting aside their own balance sheet for some of these deals. So it's an interesting dichotomy when this is business for them and they're losing some of the business. If it is going to firms outside of the banking system. So they want to be in the game. They want to put their money towards some of these lending opportunities. But that competition might end up growing the market even more because you have the firms that, that want to get in and they want to really put their money to work.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. And like there's been such a push Right. When it comes to the private market world to get into things like 401ks and so on and so forth. And this is why stuff like this has even more import.

[Tim Stone]

Should they? Yeah, I'm not even going to ask, not even going to ask.

[Carol Massar]

Not whether we should. But I'm just saying, you know, full disclosure, you need to know. Right. Especially when you're talking about people's retirements and all that good stuff. Thank you so much. Kat Doherty, she's Bloomberg News finance reporter joining us right here in studio. And as we mentioned, this is one of the most read stories. I feel like it's already a very big theme and big story this year is blue Owl one canary in the private market. Coal miner is at the beginning, like Boaz Weinstein seems to say, the beginning of an undoing.

[Tim Stone]

And I think fair to put Jamie Dimon in the category of concern.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, exactly right. It's a big, big thing. All right. Our thanks to Kat once more.

[Tim Stone]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Support for the show comes from public. Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto, without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts. Yep. High yield cash. Yes, again, they even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by

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[Tim Stone]

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[Carol Massar]

listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on yout. Now we want to get to some of today's trade and economic fundamentals behind it all. There's a lot going on. You know, things like that little thing called inflation.

[Tim Stone]

I think it will be addressed tonight in the State of the Union.

[Carol Massar]

I think it will, right? Affordability at large.

[Tim Stone]

Oh, no question. I think many people argue, though it's still a problem, the Fed largely reminds us, yes, it is. And yet there are those that are concerned about the slowing U.S. labor market. Earlier today, at the 2026 National association of Business Economics Policy meeting Underway in Washington, D.C. bloomberg's Mike McKee caught up with Fed Bank Reserve President of Chicago Austan Goolsbee to talk about the Supreme Court's ruling and how it could impact US Inflation. When the part of inflation that has come from tariffs is supposed to go away is supposed to be transitory. And when you see things like the forecast say inflation is going to peak out and then start falling by the end of 2025 and then that moves the goalpost, well, maybe it'll be 1Q26. And now they're saying, well maybe it will be 2Q26, that's not a great sign. We need to see, we should see, especially on the good side, if the tariff inflation is transitory, it's supposed to start going away. That's Bloomberg. Mike McKee caught it catching up with the Federal Reserve bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee a little earlier today.

[Carol Massar]

Well, and this is kind of the predicament we are when we see that Friday decision, Supreme Court decision when it comes to tariffs, what does that mean? Do we take away inflationary pressures? Right. When it comes to costs, this is something we've talked about, that ultimately the consumer is going to pay a higher cost. Some, some companies have been eating that higher cost because of tariffs. But eventually, you know, we're seeing things already being passed on to consumers. And Austan Goolsbee kind of getting to this point, like, where are we? Like, it's kind of a moving goalpost, like, all right, a big decision on Friday. But then we have the president over the weekend and we talked about this a lot yesterday of imposing his own kind of across the board tariffs. And so we're trying to figure out if tariff inflation is transitory. He said, you know, it's supposed to start going away. And that's kind of like the question and predicament we're in.

[Tim Stone]

Well, let's get that question over to Lauren Goodwin. She's economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. She joins us here in the studio. So following that Supreme Court decision, do we have a clear view on where inflation goes from here?

[Lauren Goodwin]

I don't think we were ever going to be super clear on the impact that tariffs have directly to inflation. You can, when you're looking at an inflation forecast, you can certainly look at which types of goods are receiving tariffs, how that might roll into the total number. But keep in mind there is a bigger geopolitical context that's changing as well with respect to how goods are sourced, where supply chains are moving started during the pandemic, if not before. And so I think the conversation around tariffs and uncertainty and what it means certainly for the deficit is very reasonable. But the specific pass through to consumers, I don't know that we were ever really going to have a great number on that.

[Carol Massar]

So in terms of the deficit, you're saying this is revenue that maybe is going away, that could have helped to cut back the US Deficit or no. Or yes, that's.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Well, that's the concern over the last couple of days, to be honest with ourselves. And really any investor that I've been speaking to most Folks, range of average effective tariff rate was somewhere between 10 and 12 and 15 and 16%. And it looks like that's where we're likely to net out regardless of the authority used for those tariffs. And so that likely means we don't have a huge change in deficit assumptions. Really, the activity we've seen on the curve, I think suggests that the market agrees with that.

[Carol Massar]

What about other inflationary pressures in terms of the President's big spending bill that he sent, you know, that was passed last year. So is that kind of tailwind for the economy? And that's inflationary, you know, in the long run. Tell us about kind of how you're gaming out inflation for this year.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Yeah, that's really where the rub is. As if you look at the broader economy picture, you have, of course, tariffs and that tax on the consumer, again, difficult to handicap, but we know it's there. Same is true of global supply chains and geopolitical challenges. And certainly these fiscal tailwinds that we see supporting the consumer likely mean that prices are going to continue moving higher. Now, it's my view, and we've talked about this a bit before, that strong inflation print a couple of times in a row is probably one of the more disruptive events for this market pricing that we could see. However, it's not clear to me that that's going to be the mechanism that disrupts the market here in the next couple of months. I'm more, I'm watching for it, but it's not in our base case. What I think though, that that affordability challenge creates talk a lot about how we don't really see that in the market. I don't know that I agree because a lot of the spending and more, I'll call it populist leaning policies from both sides of the aisle that we see are a reflection of knowing that the average American is struggling with affordability.

[Carol Massar]

What?

[Tim Stone]

I just. We only have a minute. I know two minutes left and there's a lot that we want to get to go. Okay, so I want to get to a little bit of your view on AI and productivity. We don't have time to play the sound, but there's, there's a lot of people talking about this right now. And I mean, yesterday IBM was the latest example of what happens to a stock that people think is under threat from AI. The productivity side of this. How do we look at that?

[Lauren Goodwin]

So here's, here's the real answer. None of us know. Certainly none of us. None of us in Macro company saying that in Certainly none of us in macro world know, look, the way that productivity will be garnered from this technology is much more closely in the hands of the technology actors than in the macro and investment space. And so what we're all doing is crafting our scenarios. And one thing I'll say about our high uptake, medium uptake, low intake scenarios, they're all disruptive. And so I think what we need to focus on instead of the specific winners and losers which I think are too early to identify, it's how do you get more accustomed to that disruptive market where leadership is changing the way it has been pretty regularly.

[Carol Massar]

It's, I think it's tough. And I think, you know, the caveat is and you are not alone. You know, Lauren, everybody says it's early on, we don't really know and that even the report, the research report that came out yesterday, that it's just too soon to kind of figure out winners and losers and the impact. I mean we did Fed Governor Chris Waller talking today about the US Central bank moving towards a system wide deployment of AI across regional banks and its DC headquarters. But that's again, it's a tool that everybody's playing with.

[Lauren Goodwin]

Yeah, we should, we should hope that they are right, everyone. The more we use AI, the more unfairable we I botch that but the

[Tim Stone]

better it is for your job is safe for today.

[Carol Massar]

Someone in the world said if you're not using it, you've just got to start. Otherwise you're behind already. Lauren Goodwin, you rock. Thank you so much.

[Tim Stone]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Businessweek Daily Coming up after this,

[Jacob Goldstein]

support for the show comes from Public. Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts. Yep. High yield cash. Yes again, they even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market and paid for by

[Public Advertising Voice]

Public Holdings Brokerage services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Cryptos Services by 0/ash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete [e-mail] disclosures.

[Tim Stone]

The world is transforming faster than ever and standing still isn't an option. At Oppenheimer, we're working at the forefront of the innovation economy to invest where progress begins, finding opportunities that build and protect wealth for individuals and institutions that want a seat at the edge of tomorrow. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, capital markets, investment banking

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[Carol Massar]

Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. So among the most read stories on the Bloomberg today Charlie just mentioned it has to do with metal platforms doing a mega deal with Advanced Micro Devices. It's a blockbuster one that marks a win for chip makers. Attempts to catch up Nvidia so let's get right to it. With us is Bloomberg Tech co host Ed Ludlow, airing every Monday through Friday at 11am Wall street time on Bloomberg Television and out there in our San Francisco Francisco news bureau. Ed, walk us through the particulars of. I'm not sure what to call it. Arrangement, Partnership? Deal? What do you want to call it?

[Ed Ludlow]

Well, it's a deal for sure. It's a deal. And I'm sure the ink straw on it. But you know, it's 6 gigawatts of capacity. That's like the equivalent of the output of six nuclear reactors power. Millions and millions of homes of that.

[Elise Giuliano]

Holy.

[Tim Stone]

I'm just laughing because I want to see the the power ad.

[Ed Ludlow]

Well, it's you Know, people have been posing really good questions, which is like a very simple question is why do we talk about data center capacity in terms of gigawatts and not like in dollars or number of chips? And the reality is like at a base level, data is transferred within the server, inside the data center using electrons and it requires electricity to power it, you know, in that, that's why we measure it that way. But for amd, it's important, right, because it represents, represents tens of billions of dollars of revenue over that period. And it's a kind of vote of confidence from a very large data center operator on their latest technology, which starts with my 450. And the roadmap goes from that.

[Carol Massar]

So much more powerful to say how much power will be created or how much data center capacity versus saying we're going to buy a jillion chips from you.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, well, if. There are loads of reasons for that. In part because like AMD story is now mirroring what Nvidia went through, which is we used to talk about Nvidia is just having a great chip, single gpu, as if it was something you could sort of hold up in your hand. And it doesn't really work like that. You know, AMD does the whole design of the server and the server is power hungry, you know, and it puts a burden on the grid. But that's why we talk about it in those terms, in common parlance, in gigawatts, because it explains the scale of the compute. Right? And this is massive, massive scale. The average size of a data center right now is like 300 to 500 megawatts. So the fact that these two are committing to 6 gigawatts over time, it is really big. But note that like, MET has talked about all of this, you know, by the end of this decade, having tens of gigawatts online and beyond that, hundreds of gigawatts, you know, for what they want to achieve in AI.

[Tim Stone]

So Ed, let's talk about the financing of this and. Yes, and whether or not there's like, like explain the equity involvement because as part of the arrangement, Metal will receive warrants to buy 160 million AMD shares in stages. Does that mean that, that let's say AMD's price doesn't go up to, you know, $600 per share, which is in the agreement. Does, does that mean that Metta won't own that, that portion of AMD stock?

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, so they are mandatory and they are operational and financial goals. So in one scenario, which I think is the final tranche of how it's structured, AMD share price would need to hit $600 a share. And let me just look down on my screen to 1302.

[Tim Stone]

13.

[Ed Ludlow]

There's some way to go. Yes. And so, but it works in both directions. This in terms of what AMD gets, AMD will book revenue on this matter will pay AMD for the, the server designs and computers. And so there are operational milestones. In other words, Matter has the right to act on those warrants if it actually builds these data centers and actually, you know, deploys them.

[Tim Stone]

So as of now and in the near future, Matter won't necessarily be a shareholder of AMD as a result.

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, it is structured at different prices. And you know what's interesting about it is like, like it's almost identical to what AMD AMD did with OpenAI. OpenAI was also offered warrants for $160 million. 160 million shares. Apologies, but they were set against very clearly structured operational goals. In other words, until somebody has dug up the ground, put the data center in and switched on the computer, nothing happens. And you know, OpenAI is still a little ways off from that happening too.

[Carol Massar]

Okay, is anyone getting pushed out or left out in the air race by this deal being done? Like, is anybody like saying, wait a minute, what are they doing?

[Ed Ludlow]

The other way to look at it is like 3 meters lens, like matter literally just did a similar deal with Nvidia. And what's so interesting, right, is that they framed that deal in the millions of chips. And you know, going back to what I was saying about a moment ago about gigawatts, but it's a similar arrangement. And so Matter is doing three things. It is a massive buyer of Nvidia gear, it's a massive buyer of AMD gear, but it also deploys like a lot of resources internally to develop its own custom accelerators. And you know, you either accept or don't the base position that all of these companies that are working on AI are supply constrained. In other words, they don't have access currently to enough compute to achieve the things that they want to do. And so to de risk that they are diversifying the sources of that compute in different ways.

[Carol Massar]

You know, listening to that makes me think about talking to people in the world of power generation and just saying how a lot of the hyperscalers were doing deals with a lot of different utilities just to make sure that they're covered and that all those contracts or initial maybe conversations weren't going to all, all pan out. And I Guess that's what I'm trying to. When I hear this. You know, it sounds like matter being smart, making sure its supply chain is robust internally, externally, as much as it can. But it also makes me think a lot of this sounds like insurance policies. And if the demand ultimately isn't there or it doesn't, the ROI isn't there, this starts to come undone. Right? Is that the big question?

[Ed Ludlow]

There's an element of future proofing. So the way that Mark Zuckerberg explains it is, remember he sat next to the president and and promised to invest $600 billion. And more recently he's talked about the risk of miss spending about $200 billion. And to mark Zuckerberg, the greater risk is to not spend it because then you won't know if you'll have the tools available to you to develop the AI models that you think are necessary at the time. It's also another reason why we track that PJM data. I think we've on business, we talked about this before. So PGM is like the biggest utility basically on the eastern seaboard. And they actually revised down their peak demand forecast because to your point, lots of things get announced on paper. They sit on electricity demands, they never build the things. And so we try understand what's really being built on the ground.

[Tim Stone]

And I guess too like if we think about how fast this stuff has as just accelerated in recent years, Ed, you know, maybe things could get more efficient. Maybe not as much electricity will be in demand as some analysts have said. I don't know. I want to. We are speaking with that Ludlow, he's the co host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg tv. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau at A real feather in the cap for AMD and Lisa Su. Right?

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah. You know, they have tried to differentiate themselves in any given quarter at the moment AMD will book $10 billion of revenue for absolutely everything it does. Does Nvidia's just datacenter business is $50 billion a quarter. And so you know, that shows you where they are right now. Now their pitch has been an engineering focus pitch where particularly in inference, in other words, running the models, not training them is where their technology performs best. And like that was a big part of this to say like one of the reasons Matter is doing this with us is that they will co engineer those later generations of DataCenter to use AMD's technology. Right. They'll work together, the different engineering teams to make them work as efficiently as possible in a world where right now like Nvidia dominates largely for training, but dominates generally in data center. And then you have Google's tpu, its own custom chip, which is good at both training and inference. And so again, this is about Meta saying like, what are our options here? AMD is a good option for that bucket, which is like specialized inference as far as we can tell.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. It's also just kind of interesting looking at it from a stock perspective.

[Elise Giuliano]

Perspective.

[Carol Massar]

I mean, AMD is soaring in today's session. You know that, you know, we're not up about 9%, but AMD is little changed on the year. Nvidia is little changed on the year after, you know, strong runs last year. I mean, investors are, you know, still being kind of cautious, right, when it comes to this group, Ed?

[Ed Ludlow]

Yeah, I mean, I think back to October when AMD did the deal with Open Air and the stock jumped 25% or whatever it was. So people have short memories like your partnerships are relative in the eyes of the market. This was a multi year thing going into the start of 2026. Right. So yeah, like Nvidia is up modestly, but it had grown triple digits in the past whatever years. And you know, it's now trading at relatively low multiple based on its forward earnings. So people are kind of like, okay, let's call it a bit.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, we've got about a couple of minutes left. I want to ask you about Anthropic, also on our radar, stocks actually the market overall kind of rebounding as they said it was expanding the reach of its cloud chat bot to build partnerships in the software and services sectors. And we know this has been a space that keeps getting beat up by the AI scare, that AI is going to kind of take away all their business. I'm trying to understand. I work with software firms or AI a threat or we don't really know yet.

[Ed Ludlow]

So I'll try and summarize all of it because there are several, say a dozen stocks that move to the upside based on this partnership with Anthropic. Anthropic has a very competent model, Claude. Historically it is focused on coding and making coding more efficient and getting rid of backlogs. All it's basically now saying is that they have an agentic platform that is a platform instead of being a standalone tool. You basically go to any given software company, look at the thing they already do and say, wouldn't it be great if Claude just worked within that. Intuit is a good example. People will use Intuit for their tax returns as consumers and small medium businesses will as well. Imagine if you actually went onto that platform and there was an agent. And by agent we mean, you know, an AI that's authorized to do something. Something. That's what they came out and said today.

[Carol Massar]

Ed Ludlow, of course, co host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg TV Catch at 11am Wall street time on Bloomberg Television.

[Tim Stone]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

[Jacob Goldstein]

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[Carol Massar]

Financial growth begins long before the first investment. It comes from understanding what you're building

[Elise Giuliano]

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[Carol Massar]

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[Carol Massar]

listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stone]

While President Trump's efforts to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine are stalling, with peace talks deadlocked and the fighting largely at a stalemate after four years of war,

[Carol Massar]

it's like, it's hard to get my head around because I remember our first conversations when this broke out and it was like, can this end within the year? And it was like, well, the first

[Tim Stone]

conversations correctly, everybody thought Ukraine would fall within three or four days and look

[Carol Massar]

it like, here we are and the fighting continues. But it's not without its costs on so many different levels. And first and foremost, most, of course, the loss of just human lives. But there's just so much that has really hurt, certainly Ukraine in a big way.

[Tim Stone]

Elise Giuliano is senior lecturer in political science at Columbia University. She's also director of graduate studies at Columbia's Harriman Institute for Russian Eurasian Institutions and East European Studies. She's also director of the program on U.S. russian relations. She joins us from New York. Professor, always good to have you on the program. If we think back to just four years ago and I mean, it seems, it's just remarkable to realize that that time has passed and what people thought in the beginning, what people are thinking right now, President Trump making it a priority, at least during the election in his first year in office to end the war. In your view, is the end of the war in sight?

[Elise Giuliano]

The end of the war unfortunately, is not in sight. And I think the most sober minded view about this is the view of Ukrainians who understand that at this point President Trump thought he could, I think he said, end the war in a few days and he thought it would be a simple task. But the two sides remain very far apart. And the reason for this really is the intransigence of the Russian side of Putin, who really has not moved off of his initial goals in undertaking the Invasion four years ago.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, that's where I wanted to go. I mean, this is really. I feel like the ball is in his court, and unless he gives up the land grab and some other conditions, I mean, what do we need to see from President Putin for this to happen?

[Elise Giuliano]

Well, the negotiations that are ongoing are really focusing and talking about territory. Yeah, but this just makes it sound like a big game of risk. But what Putin wanted when he went into Ukraine four years ago was to have Ukraine in Russia's orbit in a kind of 19th century great powers way where a great power has, should believe that it has sovereignty or control over its neighbors. So I don't think he's moved off of that goal. If you remember, the initial invasion was to directly toward Kiev, to over throw the government of Ukraine and to put in place a puppet or kind of pro Russian puppet regime. That was a huge failure. And so now we're talking about territory. And there's a stalemate on the line of contact in the east and south. However, Putin does not seem to, and the negotiations do not really seem to meet in the middle because this is not about territory for Russia, at least for Putin and for Ukraine, this is about the viability, the sovereignty, the very existence of their state.

[Tim Stone]

If it's not about territory for Vladimir Putin, what is it about?

[Elise Giuliano]

It's about having Ukraine in Russia's orbit. So whether that means keeping Ukraine out of Europe, out of Naito, out of an alliance with the west, with the US that's what it's about. So if, you know, if, if they do come to a cease fire and they settle this kind of sticky point about territory, the problem is that what the Russian side is asking for is something that Ukraine cannot give, which is one territory, all of Donbas, including territory that Russia does not control militarily. And if they, if they win that, if they get that, then they could be well positioned to mount another invasion or another war in a short period of time. Whereas Ukraine wants security guarantees, it wants those security guarantees from the west and from Europe. And that is exactly what Russia does not want. It does not want Europe involved. So there you see the kind of fundamental conflict between the two sides.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. You know, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the bloc would, will deliver on its $106 billion loan package to Ukraine one way or another. Her words. As you know, we continue to see this go on, and we're looking at Ukraine maybe running out of funds in just a matter of weeks. Why can't we have more of a Backing for Ukraine, or is that then a major shift in geopolitical alliances? Why not? Can't the world, the United States, get more? Why can't Ukraine be a NATO? Like, what message would that send to the rest of the world? It certainly would send a strong message to Russia, but it would also mean the potential for everybody else to get involved in that conflict. Right. NATO, allies.

[Elise Giuliano]

Okay, well, there's a few things there. I mean, Ukraine, the hesitance of the US And Europe to place Ukraine in NATO is because NATO is a military alliance. And then Europe and the US would possibly be engaged in war with a nuclear power, Russia. So that's been the kind of hesitancy on the part of both the Biden and Trump administration welcoming Ukraine into NATO. However, that doesn't mean that once a ceasefire is achieved, that Europe cannot help to secure the point of contact and provide security guarantees to Ukraine, something short of NATO membership. And that's what they're kind of working on. And that's the direction that the EU is moving in. But in terms of the short term kinds of problems, you have Hungary very much a Russian puppet. Well, not fully a puppet state, but aligned with Russia kind of acting as a spoiler within the eu. So the EU is a, is a complicated actor in, in and of itself.

[Jacob Goldstein]

Elise.

[Tim Stone]

Over the last four years, there have been different moments where we've learned about what's happening inside of Russia, what's happening inside of Ukraine, especially with regard to people who've lost their lives as a result of this conflict on the Russian side. I'm curious about support for the war and where Vladimir Putin finds the people to do the fighting, because that was a concern a couple of years ago.

[Elise Giuliano]

Yeah, certainly we do not see Russians signing up in droves to fight this war. There isn't even a kind of understanding among many Russians of why Russia is fighting this war. And so where Putin finds the Russians willing to fight is in mainly the rural areas of Russia, the very poor areas of Russia. And they are paid huge amounts to go to the front. And these amounts are, you know, life changing for some of these, the families in these rural areas. And so, you know, basically a lot of people are calling the Russian army, a mercenary army at this point. And that's, that's an important point because if Russia's economy is doing so poorly, which it is, especially lately, is it going to have enough money to continue essentially hiring its own citizens, paying them these high salaries and payouts and death payouts, if the economy is really suffering,

[Carol Massar]

Elise, if there's an agreement where Ukraine gives up territory, then what's to stop Russia, President Putin, from doing this again? He's already, this is his second, would be his second land grab, certainly, when it comes to Ukraine, if he, if he does walk away with land, if there is some kind of resolution, I mean, does it kind of just say to him, well, keep going? Like, should we assume that he will keep going? Like, is that crucial that he gets no land out of this?

[Elise Giuliano]

Right. So that's the fear of Ukraine, and that's the fear of the EU and many European states and formerly under the previous administration.

[Carol Massar]

Is it a right fear, though? Is it accurate? Is it the right fear to have,

[Elise Giuliano]

you know, so, you know, if Putin is in power, it. To me, as long as he remains in power and as long as he has this kind of obsession with Ukraine and with the kind of ideas that he's been articulating all along, since, you know, the past four years, then it seems to me that he will not give up on the goal of, as I said at the beginning, taking control of Ukraine and having Ukraine as a neighboring state that's basically under the sovereignty of Russia. And so, yeah, this is the, this is the fear. You have Russian troops positioned very much inside some of the areas Ukraine, that would allow them, if there were a ceasefire, that would allow them to restart the war again, you know, in six months, in a year, in a few years.

[Tim Stone]

Is there anything, in your view that the US could or should be doing in order to hasten an end of the conflict?

[Elise Giuliano]

Well, sure. I mean, the US Has a lot of, is the strong, is the strongest state in the world. It has a lot of tools, you could say tools of statecraft that it could use and is not using. First of all, let's be aware of the fact that the US has cut off aid, military aid and assistance to Ukraine under the Trump administration. Cut off, Right. So now the. It's the Europe who purchases weapons from the US and provides aid and assistance to Ukraine. So financially, that's one thing, but especially, you know, there could be further sanctions, there could be better enforcement of sanctions, and there could be threats of military force by sending those, those weapons to Ukraine. So there could be much stronger military for support for Ukraine as a threat. Look, the US Is doing it right now with Iran with the traditional tools of diplomacy, the threat of the use of force to compel another state to engage in the policy or political outcome that the US Wants. And the US Is not doing this. It's just taking a back seat and it's really not clear that the negotiations are bringing the great power to bear on Russia that that we could be bringing.

[Carol Massar]

All right, we're going to leave it there. But Elise, always appreciate your insight and thoughts on all of this as this war between the two entering its fifth year. Thanks to Elise Giuliano. She's Senior Lecturer in Political Science at Columbia University, also Director of Graduate Studies at Columbia's Herriman Institute for Russian, Eurasian and East European Studies, Director Program on U.S. russian Relationship this is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Tim Stone]

The world is transforming faster than ever, and standing still isn't an option at Oppenheimer. We're working at the forefront of the innovation economy to invest where progress begins, finding opportunities that build and protect wealth for individuals and institutions that want a seat at the edge of tomorrow. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management Capital markets Investment banking

[Jacob Goldstein]

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