Bloomberg Businessweek — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Boaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off’ Private Credit Funds

Date: February 24, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Kat Doherty (Bloomberg News), Lauren Goodwin (New York Life Investments), Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech), Elise Giuliano (Columbia University)

Overview

This episode centers on growing concerns about risks in the private credit markets, highlighted by warnings from major financial figures such as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital. The conversation expands to cover regulatory transparency issues, parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, ongoing shifts in banking and investing, and concludes with an analysis of current geopolitical risks and economic impacts due to the protracted Russia-Ukraine war.

Key Themes and Discussion Points

1. Jamie Dimon’s Warning: Parallels to Pre-2008 Lending Risk

(Segment: 02:28–06:28)

• Dimon's comments at JPMorgan’s Investor Day in NYC drew strong parallels between today’s competitive lending environment and the years preceding the 2008 crisis.
  • “He’s starting to see parallels to the era before the 2008 financial crisis when a rush … to make loans ended disastrously.” — Carol Massar (03:18)
• Dimon is especially critical of non-bank lenders (e.g., Apollo, Blue Owl), claiming risky “dumb things” are happening in opaque corners of the market. He warns that risks have migrated outside highly-regulated banks.

Notable Quote (Jamie Dimon via Kat Doherty):

“A lot of what you saw in with the 2008 financial crisis was the money that was being handled, that at the end of the day, that was with the bank. So now that the money has moved away from the banks, it's behind the scenes...he’s saying that’s where the underlying stress is and he doesn’t know when [the cracks] might come through. But...it's a matter of the question being the timing.” — Kat Doherty, 05:00

2. Lack of Transparency in Private Credit & The "Snowball Effect"

(Segment: 06:28–10:41)

• Kat Doherty emphasizes that unlike banks, private lenders operate with far less regulatory oversight and transparency. This makes the sector’s risks harder to detect and regulate.

• Boaz Weinstein’s perspective, delivered from Miami, echoed Dimon’s: “We are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” — Boaz Weinstein cited by Carol Massar (08:19)

• The “cockroach” metaphor is explored: once cracks appear, small issues multiply, potentially leading to market-wide stress. Doherty notes market pricing doesn’t reflect underlying loan stress — marking/valuing loans at 90 cents on the dollar, when real value may be far lower in distress.

  • “If you start to see those one offs become two, three, four, and all of a sudden it does build in and the stress can turn into something much bigger. That's what Dimon is calling out.” — Kat Doherty (07:45)

• Discussion of banks’ own entry into private credit: although banks criticize non-banks for these risks, they are also trying to compete in the same space, possibly amplifying systemic risks.

3. Public Market Participation and 401ks

(Segment: 09:57–10:41)

• There's increasing pressure and debate about including more private credit in retirement plans like 401ks, raising new questions about investor protection, risk, and transparency.

  • “Full disclosure, you need to know. Right. Especially when you’re talking about people’s retirements…” — Carol Massar (10:11)

• Dimon, Weinstein, and others are firmly in the “concerned” camp regarding the trend and lack of oversight.

  • "Is Blue Owl one canary in the private market coal mine; is that the beginning, like Boaz Weinstein seems to say, the beginning of an undoing?” — Carol Massar (10:35)

4. Inflation, Tariffs, and Economic Policy

(Segment: 13:31–20:47)

• The hosts and Lauren Goodwin (New York Life Investments) analyze inflationary pressures in light of recent Supreme Court tariffs ruling and fiscal stimulus.
  • “I don’t think we were ever going to be super clear on the impact that tariffs have directly to inflation.” — Lauren Goodwin (16:15)
  • Tariff-induced inflation is described as a fluctuating challenge, with market expectations continually pushed out (16:00–16:30).
  • Fiscal policy and supply chain changes are compounding these dynamics.
  • Goodwin also comments on AI’s uncertain but clearly disruptive impact on productivity and markets:
    • “None of us know…The way that productivity will be garnered from this technology is much more closely in the hands of the technology actors than in the macro and investment space…all disruptive.” — Lauren Goodwin (19:17)

5. Meta–AMD Mega Data Center Deal

(Segment: 23:26–33:32)

• Ed Ludlow (Bloomberg Tech) breaks down the significance of Meta’s huge partnership with AMD for 6 gigawatts of data center capacity, and what this means for AI hardware competition versus Nvidia.
  • The deal involves operational and financial milestones; Meta gets warrants on 160 million AMD shares that vest upon achieving ambitious technical and business goals.
  • “In one scenario…the AMD share price would need to hit $600 a share…there’s some way to go.” — Ed Ludlow (26:41)
  • Meta is diversifying its supply chain, not betting everything on any one supplier — treating these deals in part as insurance policies (29:47).
  • AMD is positioning itself as an alternative to Nvidia, especially for AI inference workloads.
  • Markets reacted with significant stock price movements, illustrating how strategic partnerships drive investor sentiment in the sector.

6. Anthropic’s Cloud Expansion and Software Industry Partnerships

(Segment: 33:03–34:18)

• News that Anthropic is expanding cloud chatbot partnerships lifted related software stocks; Ed Ludlow unpacks what this means for the “AI threat” to traditional software firms.
  • The takeaway: integrating powerful AI assistants (agents) directly into platforms (such as Intuit), signaling a shift toward embedded AI in all business software.

7. Russia–Ukraine War Update: Deadlock, Geopolitical Stakes, and Risks

(Segment: 37:27–48:00)

• Elise Giuliano (Columbia University) brings context on the stalled Russia-Ukraine war, now heading into its fifth year, and the prospects for peace.
  • “The end of the war unfortunately is not in sight…I think the most sober minded view about this is the view of Ukrainians.” — Elise Giuliano (38:49)
  • Putin’s goals are not just territorial but about keeping Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence, outside of the Western/NATO orbit. Even territorial settlement would not address the core dispute (40:39–41:45).
  • Western aid and NATO involvement remain fraught, mostly due to the risk of direct conflict with Russia as a nuclear power (42:33).
  • Russian war effort is sustained by enlisting poorer, rural citizens with outsized pay, resembling a “mercenary” army (44:00).
  • The risk of a future, repeated invasion remains high if Russia emerges with new territorial gains.
  • Giuliano critiques the US for reduced military support, suggesting more aggressive sanctions and military aid could alter the outcome (46:33–48:00).
  • “The US has a lot of tools…better enforcement of sanctions, and threats of military force by sending those weapons to Ukraine. The US is doing it right now with Iran...the US is not doing this [enough in Ukraine]…” — Elise Giuliano (46:40)

Most Memorable Quotes

• “We are in the super early innings of the wheels coming off the car.” — Boaz Weinstein (08:11, via Carol Massar)
• “A snowball effect…you don’t need too much of these specific instances…if you start to see those one-offs become two, three, four…stress can turn into something much bigger.” — Kat Doherty (07:45)
• “He has not moved off of his initial goals…this is not about territory for Russia, at least for Putin. For Ukraine, this is about the viability, the sovereignty, the very existence of their state.” — Elise Giuliano (39:35–40:39)
• “The way productivity will be garnered from this technology is much more closely in the hands of the technology actors than in the macro and investment space…they’re all disruptive.” — Lauren Goodwin (19:17)
• “There isn’t even a kind of understanding among many Russians of why Russia is fighting this war…so a lot of people are calling the Russian army, a mercenary army at this point.” — Elise Giuliano (44:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Jamie Dimon’s warning & private credit concerns: 02:28–10:41
• Inflation, tariffs, and the macro outlook: 13:31–20:47
• Meta–AMD deal & chip industry competition: 23:26–33:32
• Anthropic/AI & software industry impacts: 33:03–34:18
• Russia–Ukraine war analysis with Elise Giuliano: 37:27–48:00

Tone & Style

The discussion is analytical yet urgent, blending Wall Street skepticism with macroeconomic concern. Experts like Kat Doherty and Lauren Goodwin bring nuanced, data-driven arguments, while the hosts ensure complexity is accessible to business-minded listeners. The Russia-Ukraine war segment is sober, reflecting the gravity of ongoing geopolitical crises.

Takeaways

• Private credit markets could be facing systemic risks reminiscent of pre-2008 as risky lending migrates outside regulated banks.
• Industry leaders (Dimon, Weinstein) are sounding alarms over transparency, oversight, and the potential for rapid contagion.
• The fight for dominance in AI compute shows how tech-company alliances and hardware innovation are reshaping financial markets and infrastructure demands.
• Global macroeconomic pressures are increasingly complex, with persistent inflation, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical conflict shaping investment decisions and economic forecasts.
• The Russia-Ukraine war remains deadlocked, with grim prospects for a quick resolution and significant global risk if Western aid falters.

This episode offers a broad but cohesive look at financial market risks, technological disruption, and global political tensions—all essential listening for executives, investors, and anyone interested in the shifting dynamics of today’s economy.