Broadcom's Disappointing AI Outlook Drives Tech-Led Stock Rout

Summary

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Bloomberg Businessweek — June 5, 2026

Episode: Broadcom's Disappointing AI Outlook Drives Tech-Led Stock Rout

Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Key Guests: Bailey Lipschultz (Bloomberg), Tom Giles (Bloomberg), John Flood (Goldman Sachs), Natalia Kenny (Bloomberg), Andrew Feldman (Cerebras), Dan Arnold (Proto Security), Vanessa Perdomo Maglione (Bloomberg)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the sharp tech-led selloff in equity markets, largely triggered by Broadcom's disappointing revenue forecast and a wave of caution in the high-flying AI and semiconductor space. The discussion explores the implications for upcoming IPOs (notably SpaceX and Anthropic), the robustness—and potential vulnerabilities—of the current AI-driven market cycle, and the ripple effects on investor behavior. The show also touches on the unique security challenges ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tech-Led Stock Selloff and Market Sentiment

• Sharp Pullback in Semiconductors: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped over 9% but remains up 74% YTD. NASDAQ 100 fell over 4.5% from its recent high.

  • Bailey Lipschultz (03:21): “We see two days of weakness and all of a sudden the sky is falling… but I think the big question when I talk to investors is, what's the next move for the Fed?”

• AI and Tech FOMO: Despite the selloff, there's rampant enthusiasm, especially for AI-related names and IPOs.

  • Carol Massar (04:28): “There’s just such a FOMO trade, especially when it comes to AI and tech and even some of these IPOs…”

• Investor Positioning:

  • Short positions are rising in some areas, but dips are also being aggressively bought.
  • Hedge funds are increasingly hedged, balancing long tech bets with short macro exposures.

2. SpaceX IPO & the New AI Narrative

• Appetite for SpaceX Shares: There’s overwhelming demand for SpaceX’s $75B IPO despite the market correction. Morgan Stanley is reportedly limiting retail orders due to popularity.

  • Bailey Lipschultz (07:48): “If there ever was a deal that has been as transparent or the worst kept secret, it's this one… we know the company did one-on-one meetings at Starbase with some of the biggest portfolio managers in the world.”

• The Musk Effect & AI Pivot:

  • SpaceX is leveraging the AI narrative post-XAI merger, repositioning itself from just space exploration to data and AI infrastructure, pitching a $26.5T AI market opportunity.
  • Bailey Lipschultz (08:06): “A year ago was a space monopoly and now they're pitching a $26.5 trillion AI market.”

• The IPO’s Importance:

  • If 30% is allocated to retail ($20B+), it would be a historic move for market participation.
  • Bailey Lipschultz (09:20): “It’ll be critical... if 30% of this does get allocated to retail...”

3. Broadcom’s Disappointing AI Outlook Drives Rout

• Broadcom’s Results Spark Selloff:

  • Shares fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected chip revenue forecast, dragging chip stocks lower.
  • Tom Giles (13:01): “If you don't meet or exceed expectations and sometimes if you don't exceed expectations by a lot, there's going to be disappointment.”

• AI Cycles—Supercycle or Bubble?

  • Broadcom CEO Hock Tan expressed a need to focus on fundamentals amid the hype.

    • Hock Tan (14:43): “Yes, we are kind of in a very surreal environment. Frankly, I don’t think about it now… just focus on fundamentals, great value, and stop thinking about your stock price.”

  • Debate continues: is this a real paradigm shift or a classic boom-bust cycle?

    • Tom Giles (15:30): “We are in something of a bubble…on everybody’s mind. Is this a paradigm shift? Or the same old boom-bust?”

• Strategic Shift:

  • Broadcom is now doubling down on AI chip development versus major M&A.

4. AI Spending: Massive, Relentless, and Expensive

• Anthropic and Mega-Capital Raises:

  • Anthropic co-founder Daniela Amodei highlights how capital-intensive training models is, and why public markets are now vital.
    • Daniela Amodei (via Tom Giles, 17:27): “It’s a very capital-intensive business… the public market is well suited to that.”

• IPOs Ahead:

  • SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all lining up to raise tens of billions in the public markets.
    • Tom Giles (18:29): “We’re on the cusp of three major IPOs… all of them looking to raise tens of billions.”

5. AI Demand: Bubble or Not?

• Cerebras CEO on True Demand:

  • Andrew Feldman notes AI is “the opposite of a bubble”—saying companies can’t keep up with $25B+ in backlog demand.

    • Andrew Feldman (20:46): “What is unusual about AI right now is the builders are so far behind the demand, it's absurd.”

  • Companies are now starting to meter and limit employee use of AI tokens due to expensive compute costs.

    • Tom Giles (22:07): “They're putting limits, they're metering, they're throttling... they want to know there's a return on that investment.”

• “Shopping for AI”:

  • As businesses gain more choice in AI models (and costs), employees will choose more efficient, often cheaper—sometimes China-based—LLMs.

6. Investor Flows, Positioning, and IPO Readiness

• Market is Not Overextended:

  • John Flood (Goldman Sachs) sees robust demand for deal flow, constructive sentiment—hedge fund clients are at their highest-ever hedge levels.
    • John Flood (29:09): “There’s still healthy skepticism about what is going to happen next… the most hedged we’ve ever seen hedge fund clients at Goldman Sachs.”

• Retail vs. Institutional Divide:

  • Institutions remain disciplined and hedged; retail investors keep buying until jobs data turns negative.
    • John Flood (32:58): “I think retail will continue to buy... until we start to see job destruction.”

• Systematic Funds:

  • High S&P exposure among CTAs, but systematic flows are still smaller than institutional or corporate activity.
    • John Flood (34:59): “Systematic positioning... is very small relative to retail, corporates, hedge funds, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds.”

• Valuations & Earnings:

  • Market is not considered overly expensive, with room for further gains as fundamentals remain solid.
    • John Flood (36:10): “We don’t think it’s overly expensive… there’s still room to run.”

7. 2026 FIFA World Cup: Security Challenges

• Logistics and Security:

  • Massive challenge coordinating security across 11 cities—like “11 simultaneous Super Bowls.”
    • Dan Arnold (42:10): “This is 11 simultaneous Super Bowls… a major strain on public and private... partnerships.”

• Drone and Tech Threats:

  • New threats from drone technology require advanced monitoring and layered security.
    • Dan Arnold (45:27): “It has become much cheaper... to maybe cause some chaos or frustration... so it is certainly part of the plans.”

• City-by-City Differences:

  • Every host city must tailor plans and budget, with federal standards but vastly different local needs.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the AI Investment Cycle:
  Tom Giles (15:30): “We are in something of a bubble... Is this a paradigm shift or the same old boom-bust?”

• On SpaceX’s Cross-Industry Appeal:
  Bailey Lipschultz (08:06): “A year ago was a space monopoly and now they're pitching a $26.5 trillion AI market.”

• On AI Supply Versus Demand:
  Andrew Feldman (20:46): “What is unusual about AI right now is the builders are so far behind the demand, it's absurd.”

• On Market Positioning:
  John Flood (29:09): “We actually still see a lot of discipline out there... still a wall of worry left to climb higher.”

• On World Cup Security:
  Dan Arnold (42:10): “It's 11 simultaneous Super Bowls… the challenge of security for those environments… is a major strain.”

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Timestamps – Important Segments

• [03:21] Tech selloff context, cycles, and FOMC speculation (Bailey Lipschultz)
• [06:00] How the selloff impacts upcoming IPOs, particularly SpaceX
• [12:22] Deep dive on Broadcom’s AI-driven earnings and supercycle (Tom Giles)
• [17:27] Capital intensity of AI, Anthropic’s rationale for IPOs in the sector
• [20:46] Cerebras’s CEO perspective: AI is not a bubble, real unmet demand
• [29:09] John Flood on institutional behavior, hedging, and market FOMO
• [36:10] Market valuations, systematic flows, and sector momentum
• [42:10] World Cup security logistics and drone threat response (Dan Arnold)

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Final Takeaways

• Despite the selloff, institutional players remain disciplined and hedged, while the AI-driven narrative continues to generate both exuberance and cautious optimism.
• The structure and demand for major tech IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic) could be a watershed for market participation and capital raising in the sector.
• Industry insiders debate whether AI’s resource demands reflect the start of a sustainable supercycle or the top of a speculative bubble.
• The 2026 FIFA World Cup’s unique scope presents unprecedented operational and security challenges, reflecting broader themes of coordination and risk management in a high-stakes environment.

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Transcript

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[Tim Stenovec]

Space X has already received orders for more than the shares available in its $75 billion IPO. That's according to people familiar with the matter. It puts the company on the verge of setting the record for the biggest ever listing. Separately, just crossing the Bloomberg Terminal Bailey Lipschultz leading this story to a quiet effort by Morgan Stanley to prevent retail investors from placing multiple orders for shares of Space X in the company's massive IPO is facing pushback from some of the country's largest brokerages. Bailey Schultz joins us now. He's holding on the fort in Bloomberg headquarters in New York, the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Bailey, you lead our IPO coverage. We're going to talk about Space X and the fantastic reporting that you and the team have done around it. We do. Before we do that, though, as we just heard from Charlie, we're seeing a major sell off today with some of the chip names really leading the charge. Lower your view on this equity market, especially as tech has been leading the way, giving back some of these historic gains.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

I mean, Tim, I go to Italy for about two weeks and the market's at an all time. We miss you on no News though, Tim. No news happens. The market goes up, no one bats an eye. We see two days a week weakness and all of a sudden the sky is falling. Just want to call out the fact that, yes, the Philadelphia Semiconductors index is down more than 9% right now. It's up 74% year to date. If anyone told you that that would be the case sitting here on June 5, I think they would take that NASDAQ 100, of course, down 5% from its all time high on Tuesday. It does seem like a bit of consternation. I think the big question when I talk to investors is what's the next move for the Fed? And it does seem increasingly that the logical answer has to be a hike. Whether that's later this year, whether that's early next year, obviously we'll see how the economic data play out. But it does seem like kind of a natural way to take your foot off the gas pedal going into a weekend. Obviously, we're still living in breathing everything that comes from the, from the White House. But the big question at the end of the day is is this a market that did nothing but go up for a number of weeks, if not months, for no real reason and what kind of lies ahead? And obviously there's going to be a big IPO next week that'll be interesting to track as well.

[Carol Massar]

You know, having said that, Bailey, I do feel like this is a moment in time where there's just such a FOMO trade, especially when it comes to AI and tech and even some of these IPOs which we're going to dig into in just a moment. We talked with John Flood over at Goldman Sachs earlier, you know, and he tracks hedge funds and institutional investors and did talk about the hedging that these folks are doing so that they're not all in on everything. Do we see any of that? Do we see a rise in short positioning at all? Do we see anything that kind of says, all right, people are enthusiastic, but they're also playing this smart?

[Bailey Lipschultz]

I think there is kind of that sense when you look at some of the data that we see in others track, it does seem like dips are being bought in the sense that some of these memory stocks are being added to today. We did see people taking protection over the last few weeks as it relates to some of those higher flyers. But, Carol, it still is an interesting market where you do see certain short positions rising, but in other pockets of the market, you're still seeing exuberance, or even just shades of exuberance as it relates to what the future could hold. So we're seeing a lot continuing to play out. The big thing has been this is a market that, when I look back over a few days ago, even I expected to see a sharper pullback. And coming into today, we were down, you know, 80. So I just want to point NASDAQ.

[Tim Stenovec]

Sorry.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, no, don't be sorry. It's like a lot coming at us. We're looking at, if we look at the chart, kind of a slope down on all these major equity averages, and we are now down about 4 1/2% or more than 4% on the NASDAQ 100. So we continue to see selling into the close here. Tim?

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, Bailey? Does it change? Does it. I know, I know one day does not make a market, and especially given the, the rapid move higher going back to the end of March that we've seen, especially with tech. As I mentioned earlier this week, the NASDAQ 100 was up more than 30% just from March. The Sox was, was up more than 90% earlier this week, still up, as Carol mentioned, more than 70%. Does it, does it change. I'm not going to say does it change the timing, but does it change the environment that Space X goes public in?

[Bailey Lipschultz]

I think anyone who says that the NASDAQ 100 down almost 5% in a single day doesn't matter, is, is probably lying to you, but I do think, listen, this is, I'll give you the summary that I've been giving people. It's been five months ago, we and others reported that SpaceX wanted to raise $75 billion at a 1.75 to 1.8, maybe $2 trillion valuation. That was five months ago. Here we are in June and it's happening. They set a fixed price a few Days ago for this ipo. If there ever was a deal that has been as transparent or the worst kept secret, it's this one. So anyone who's now all of a sudden saying, you know, the NASDAQ 100 is down four and a half percent, I actually can't cut the check to Space X that I thought I could a week ago. Well, where were you when the stock was. The market was in a bit more turmoil. And I think that's just one thing that I think people have to keep in mind that we've been talking about this for months. This isn't a deal that came out of left field. It's not a deal that started with a price range that was north of $2 trillion. And they have to sell investors on that notion. This is something that bankers in the company have been, at least through our reporting and others been pretty open and

[Tim Stenovec]

very clear about the demand that we're already seeing right now for this IPO next week. How would you characterize it?

[Tom Giles]

It's expected.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

I mean, 75 billion.

[Tim Stenovec]

Nothing, nothing off the charts, nothing surprising.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

No, I think this is again, we know that the company did one on one meetings at Starbase with some of the biggest portfolio managers in the world back in.

[Tim Stenovec]

Does it need to do that? Everybody sees what the rockets do. Everybody knows who Elon Musk is.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

Tim, I'm going to direct you to some of our reporting and say that this is a company that a year ago was a space monopoly and now they're pitching a 26 and a half trillion dollar AI market. This is a company that when you look at the sell side models that we were able to get our hands on, analysts are penciling in AI to bring in $755 billion in sales in 2031. According to Evercore ISI research analyst, that was 3.2 billion last year. So there's a lot of excitement, there's a lot of opium. But this is a company that before the XAI merger was strictly a space company. And now we're seeing the magic of Elon Musk, or at least people being excited about what I could bring and what orbital data centers could bring. And I tuned into that conversation Musk had with Jamie Dimon yesterday talking about making Star Trek reality. Yes, this is all Elon Musk, but this is something we saw play out with Tesla and we're going to see it play out with Space X.

[Carol Massar]

Well, as people reminded us at the Bloomberg Technology Summit yesterday, barely never count Elon out. Just about 30 seconds.

[Tim Stenovec]

I think Trey Stevens at Andrew with his conversation with that Ludlow. He said don't bet against Elon.

[Carol Massar]

Exactly. What will be key, though, is how this stock, once it IPO trades in the months right after, just quickly.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

Yeah, it'll be critical and I think even day one will be closely watched if 30% of this does get allocated to retail. North of $20 billion. We've never seen that. So it's going to be key for markets and for the company hands down.

[Carol Massar]

Got to say, it is a fun time to be covering markets. Right?

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah. Don't go back to Italy next week.

[Bailey Lipschultz]

Yeah, I came back and all of a sudden everything was still going crazy.

[Carol Massar]

Crazy. Yeah, I agree that you can kind of disappear, come back and create crazy. Still exists. Bailey Lipschultz, we love you. Bloomberg News markets reporter covers the IPO market and so much more at Bloomberg.

[Tim Stenovec]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Tim Stenovec]

A force behind the event. Tom Giles, he's senior Executive Editor for Global Technology here at Bloomberg. He joins us from our San Francisco bureau just steps away from us. Tom, first of all, congratulations on a great event. You had some awesome conversations. We're going to talk about some of them. Andrew Feldman over at Cerebras, Dan Schulman of Verizon, Ali Godse, President CEO of Databricks, Hock Tan of Broadcom. That's kind of where I want to start because Broadcom is now having its worst two day stretch ever. Shares getting crushed yesterday down more than 12% the company forecasts for chips disappointed investors down again today. Really timely conversation. What did you want to to hear from Hawk Tan at Broadcom?

[Tom Giles]

Well, the biggest thing, I mean you know yesterday on the news was the fact as you said, its shares were falling, dragging down chip stocks. It's having another bad day today and that's on the heels of basically us a lighter than expected forecast for revenue in the current quarter. And remember that that is on the heels of a huge run up adding hundreds of billions of dollars in in market capitalization in a matter of days. What that speaks to is just how many, how high the expectations are for chip makers like Broadcom in the AI era. And if you don't meet or exceed expectations and sometimes if you don't exceed expectations by a lot, there's going to be disappointment. What people are worried about and it's theme that we kept coming back to during the conference yesterday is whether end user demand will be sustainable and that's demand for chips and the infrastructure needed to for these large language models that are, that are basically changing the way we live and work and operate and then whether there will be end User demand for those, the actual outcomes, the actual services that are being created by chat, by OpenAI, Anthropic XI and the other large language models that are investing so much money into these, into these, into this infrastructure. Well, let's, let's.

[Tim Stenovec]

Tom, I want to jump in because I want to go to part, I want to go to part of that interview that you had with Hock 10 over at Broadcom yesterday. This is him. There was a lot to choose from. This is him just weighing in hock 10 of Broadcom on the super cycle and the hype cycle, the enthusiasm.

[Kalpen (Cal Penn)]

Yes, we are kind of like I

[Andrew Feldman]

in a very surreal environment. Frankly. I don't think about it now. It's hard not to. But no, just focus on fundamentals, great

[Kalpen (Cal Penn)]

value and stop thinking about your stock price. Trouble is very hard to do that.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, I would imagine it's, it's very hard to stop thinking about the stock price. That was Hock Tan on the Broadcom AI hype cycle. From your conversation yesterday at the Bloomberg Tech Summit. I mean it is, it is hard to walk around San Francisco and not think about AI because it is everywhere. I mean every single ad, every billboard from the legacy tech companies talking about how they're harnessing AI agents to startups that this point I've never heard of. I mean this is what, this is the environment that we're in right now.

[Tom Giles]

Yeah, I'm so glad other people are experiencing it who live out there side of San Francisco. It is surreal and we are in something of a bubble and I don't mean a bubble in terms of inflation of stock prices, although that may be the case. I just mean a bubble in terms of the fact that this is on everybody's mind. It's the topic of conversation and it is a. There is a big conversation happening right now about whether we've experienced paradigm shift from where the old values, the old adages and the old truths about how markets operate boom bust cycles and whether we're breaking out of it. And there's a lot of people who are very pessimistic about the idea and that look, we are in a bubble that there will be a crash, that demand will not meet these expectations. There's also people who say we've kind of entered a new phase. And I just want to give one case in point. When I was talking to Broadcom, Broadcom, when I was talking to Hawk Tan, I asked him about this is a company that has built itself in many ways on acquisitions. Hawk is known for big, bold acquisitions, not all of them came together but he made some really, really big ones. And that was very much a trademark of the way he managed things. Now in the generative AI era, he has obviously embraced AI chip making, providing an alternative, a competitor to Nvidia, which is the far and away leader right in designing these AI accelerator chips. And he's basically said we're kind of entering a post m and a phase where I don't need to do that to add growth. What I'm doing now is doubling down on chip development and working and a couple of examples are his the deal that he, that he has with Google through 2031 to work on its TPUs. Another, another one is the work that they're doing with Anthropic one of the biggest elements.

[Carol Massar]

Well, and you know what's interesting, like kind of playing off of that, so many people, Tom, as you know, just talked about the incredible demand and trying to keep up with it. There was another conversation that Shereen Ghaffari had with Anthropic co founder and president Daniela Amade and she too talked about just the incredible spend that's needed. Let's just listen to a snippet of that conversation at Bloomberg Technology yesterday. Speaking for ourselves and I think ideally probably really for the industry more broadly. It's a very capital intensive business to, to train AI models. I think the sort of core set of companies that are working to advance the frontier are just going to need access to capital and I think the public market is very well suited to that. And that of course is Daniela Amadi of Anthropic. It's interesting on a day where Metta is weighing raising tens of billions of dollars in a new share sale that came from, from ft, but everybody seemed to talk about that. You got to keep spending to build, Tom.

[Andrew Feldman]

Right.

[Tom Giles]

Every couple of days we hear of another mega multibillion dollar deal whereby a company, whether it's the OpenAI anthropic side of the fence or the, the big, the, the Googles and the Metas and the Microsofts of the world, these so called hyperscalers, they all are looking for ways to raise the capital that they need to keep developing their models and to keep ensure that they have access to the computing power. It's very expensive, it's very capital intensive as you said. You know, every couple of days there's another multibillion dollar deal and you know we're talking about, we're on the cusp of three major IPOs. Another big theme of the conference, another big theme out here. In Silicon Valley is, sorry, space X, anthropic, open AI. All of them looking to raise tens of billions of dollars in the public markets. And, you know, just when you thought it was safe to, you know, kind of get back into, you know, IPO mode, here comes Google, which IPO decades ago. They too are going to tap the public markets through an equity offering again to raise tens of billions of dollars. But to get back to Daniela, one of the, one of the nice things about that interview was getting her to weigh in on the IP ipo. There's not a lot that they have said about their IPO plans. There's not a lot that they can say publicly. They did file confidentially and they really need to be careful to not run afoul of SEC rules. But she did, to our, to our, you know, delight, talk a little bit about the IPO and just admitting, like, yeah, we need, this is another source

[Dan Arnold]

of capital for us to, to buy

[Tom Giles]

those chips and those data centers.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, you know, it's kind of a good segue to talk about an interview that you did to this week, Tom, with a company that did go public a few weeks ago. Carol was there for, for this incredible. She's been raving about it. We're talking about the interview that you did with Cerebrus is a CEO, Andrew Feldman. Let's take a listen to what he had to say about the idea of bubbles.

[Andrew Feldman]

I think historically bubbles were characterized by a notion of if you build it, they will come. What is unusual about AI right now is the builders are so far behind the demand, it's absurd. We have a backlog of more than $25 billion of demand that there are none of us, not us, not amd, not in video. They can keep up with the demand that your employees are driving. And that's sort of, in a lot of ways the opposite of a bubble.

[Tim Stenovec]

Andrew Feldman, three versus CEO Talking to you, Tom, earlier this week at the Bloomberg Technology Summit here in San Francisco. The demand question, I think, is a really important one right now. He pointed if you're just listening to us on radio, he pointed to the audience and he said, your employees are driving. And he's referring to the executives in the audience there. But at the same time, we're hearing from some companies that they want to crack down on token usage at their companies. We had an executive at Uber this week essentially saying that we've had critics come on our program that say, well, the idea of all these employees using all these tokens and us spending so much money we're not actually seeing a return on that. How are you thinking about that part of the conversation right now?

[Tom Giles]

Yeah, you know, we talked to several executives about that, including the Verizon CEO, and, and, and there's, you know, there's two schools of thought. There is the people who say, look, yeah, we do need to impose limits. We don't want people, you know, just willy nilly using this computing power, which is so expensive. And so, yeah, they're being a little bit more choosy. They're putting limits, they're metering, they're throttling whatever verb you want to use. They want to know that there's going to be a return on that investment. So in the earlier days of the generative AI phase kicked off, you know, late 2022, roughly, there were a lot of companies who were telling their employees, go, experiment, build, create chatbots. And now we're talking more and more about agents. That's still happening, but I think people are starting to get, and businesses are starting to get more strategic about how they're doing that, how much you can spend. And so it does make sense for people to be a little bit more choosy, be a little bit more, put, impose some restrictions, put some parameters around that. Yeah. So I think.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, the other thing.

[Tom Giles]

Well, go ahead, Carol.

[Carol Massar]

No, you know what I love too is when you talk to Andrew Feldman and he said, we're going to, you're going to see people shopping, I think, for AI, right, in different models or usages. Like we go to Costco. Like, it was a really smart kind of analogy of how you think about it.

[Tom Giles]

Yeah, I remember him talking about buying a big tub of mayonnaise and, you know, you just don't need it. So you gotta be, you gotta be strategic. The other thing that we're starting to see too is that as you as engineers, software programmers have the option to choose between different LLMs. You don't have to, you're not, you don't have to be wedded to one particular one. So they're gonna start shopping around more and more and being strategic. And what is interesting is that there are certain, certain tools that we can look to, that open router, for example, that can give us an indication of token usage and who's ahead and which LLMs are sort of gaining momentum at any particular time. And we've seen over recent months when people have the choice, when engineers have the choice, when they can choose between a different LM for particular one thing or another, one task or another, they're gravitating toward the lower cost LLMs and, and increasingly the lower cost LLMs are coming from China. That's something that's really interesting. Now there are certain companies, there are businesses that place limits, maybe don't, you know, let their employees use, say something created by Alibaba or Deep Sea, for example. And then there's others where if you've got access to them, people are using them, you know, and obviously different alums have different strengths. Anthropic has really leaned into tailoring its tools for businesses. And so people, you know, for certain tasks, people say, you know, nobody can be anthropic. Mythos their, their tool for cyber security is something that comes to mind. People say that's, you know, significantly ahead of comparable tools by other companies. On the other hand, if there is some kind of a task that, that you can accomplish using a cheaper LLM, people are going to do that. And that does have implications for, again, lower cost models coming from China. They just have done a better job of doing things more efficiently. And that's something that's, you know, should resonate with us at a time when the US Is engaged in this war with China over who's ahead in AI. We have done, the US has done a lot to try to handicap China's ability to get access to chips, for example, advanced chips, to sort of ensure that the US Stays ahead. Right. And you know, in many ways Chinese based elements are catching up.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. I mean, highly. It's just amazing, like all the conversations and what's going on and you can't help but feel that the CFOs of companies are going to start looking at that ROI and looking at the cost and what the benefits are to an organization. Tom Giles, you rock.

[Tim Stenovec]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

As you know, trading news, a lot of things keep us honest and all bullish things must come to an end. We're certainly seeing that in the trade today, Tim. Or at least a little bit of a breather.

[Andrew Feldman]

Yeah.

[Tim Stenovec]

As we've been reporting, as you just heard from Charlie, Wall Street's historic weekly run poised to come to a halt. Stocks and bonds falling after that solid jobs report added to speculation the Fed's next interest rate move could actually be a hike.

[Carol Massar]

All right, so let's get into the trade now. That we know what the backdrop is right now. Natalia Kenny Jvitch is with us, Bloomberg News equities reporter. She's back at home base at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City along with John Flood. He's Goldman Sachs partner and head of America's Equities Execution Services. As we said, both back in New York City.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey John, Natalia, good to have you both with us. John, I just want to get your thoughts on where we are in maybe a cycle here. And I'm struck by the news of metal platform shares down right now. The company weighing a big equity raise after that blockbuster Google deal that we got earlier this week, $85 billion in a share sale. John, I know I'm not going to get you to comment on an individual company, but comment on what it means to you when you have huge mega cap tech companies doing share sales or possibly doing share sales like this. What signal does it tell you?

[Andrew Feldman]

Signal tells me that it's a very healthy market right now in terms of the supply and demand that's out there in the marketplace. And I think that we've seen, you know, I speak with institutions at Gold, Goldman Sachs, institutional investors and there's never been more robust demand for these offerings. And my expectation is that trend continues and that's a major piece of why we are very constructive this equity market despite S&P 500 already making you know, 24 all time highs. We expect more of that to come in the future.

[Carol Massar]

So John, how do we know though that it isn't just a case of FOMO and people just chase seeing? I mean it's so much money, so much momentum in terms of the spend and build debt side equity tapping markets. We heard from the Bloomberg Technology folks yesterday, a big conference, lots of major players in the air space saying demand is incredible. They just the momentum. How do we know though that it's not just kind of a major, major FOMO trade and that there's going to be some kind of reality or reckoning coming in the near future?

[Andrew Feldman]

Because from the institutional investment investor perspective we actually still see a lot of discipline out there. There's still I think a wall of worry left to climb higher in this market. What we look at is our prime brokerage data and one of the most important pieces out there right now I think is gross exposure. So essentially hedge funds are still long a lot of their single stocks, AI tech exposed names. There are also more short macro products against these longs than they ever have been in the history of our data set. What that tells me is there's still healthy skepticism about what is going to happen next. I want to be, I want to hold my longs but I want to make sure I'm hedged. And it's essentially the most hedged we've ever seen. Hedge fund clients at Goldman Sachs on

[Natalia Kenny]

the equity for John, what is your take actually on today's stock market sell off? Because we hear lots of conversations about some market participants, you know, taking profits off the table because they're prepping for this huge wave of big tech IPOs. So what is your take and what does Goldman also think? Is it a buying opportunity? Is it time to buy the dip?

[Andrew Feldman]

I think that there have been few and far dips to buy so far this year. So yes, when you have a 2% sell off in the S&P 500, it has paid to buy those dips and I think it continue and I think that will continue. I think today you have some profit taking into the weekend ahead of what is likely going to be continued supply as evidenced by the news that just broke. But really we had a strong jobs print this morning and I would say what are the fears that people continue to list as top concerns? It's inflation, it's Iran, it's private credit and the this morning's jobs print, you know, has moved, has rates moving higher and people now think that we will get a rate hike and by year end. So it is, I think it's healthy. I do think it's a buying opportunity and I think that there is still a significant amount of worry, cash on the sidelines, short exposure out there for, for the market to climb higher.

[Natalia Kenny]

Got it. You know, I also wanted to ask you about one indicator tracked by Goldman Sachs. It basically tracks all positioning across hedge funds, long only investors, retail funds. It is interesting because the stock market is at all time high. At the same time positioning is still at the neutral level which means that there is more room to run. So first of all, please tell me why is that, why positioning is still so low and what it means for the stock market direction.

[Andrew Feldman]

It's likely a tailwind and that's exactly, exactly what we said. Despite us being close to all time highs at the index level from an institutional investor perspective, there is still concern out there. We see that through gross exposure being at all time high expressed through a lot of short hedges in macro product and from mutual fund cash balances, if you look at notional dollars that remain on the sidelines for mutual funds, we are still at, you know, we're still at long term average. It's not like there's, it's not an outlier. So when you look at hedge fund exposure, you look at mutual fund cash, there's still plenty of skepticism left out there. That's why our sentiment indicator is showing healthy positioning, not overextended positioning.

[Carol Massar]

John, that makes me happy that there's some negative sentiment out there. I get very nervous. You know, we're just at this tech event we talked a lot about. I10 of Broadcom was here, I mean all of the major players and there was a lot of enthusiasm. I think it's safe to say with some cautiousness, but a lot of enthusiasm. Having said that, because of what you are seeing, particularly among institutional investors and hedge funds, do you think the retail investor in markets overall are not really thinking that we could see some kind of pullback or mini correction as a result?

[Andrew Feldman]

I think that there is a slight disconnect between the retail investor right now and the investor institutional investor. That being said, I think that retail will continue to buy the equity market as we have some mega cap IPOs likely in the pipeline between now and year end. We'll see how that plays out. But these are high profile companies that typically grab the attention of retail. And once retail stops, starts buying, they don't really stop unless there is true job job loss. Our data shows that that retail bid disappears when there is job loss. And the last time that we saw retail as a net seller of the US equity market for more than a consecutive week was back in March of 2020 during the depths of COVID So really like you have to watch the, you have to watch employment, you have to watch jobs. And until we start to see job destruction, destruction, that retail bid will likely remain a hell a of the a healthy constant in the marketplace.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, we certainly got a positive print today in that arena, John. I'm wondering though, what would give you pause apart from job losses? What would, what would give you pause with an equity rally such as this?

[Andrew Feldman]

If we started to get disappointed in earnings and frankly we continue to see companies clear these hurdles. Last quarter earnings were solid. We are optimistic about next quarter. If you start to see earnings holistically across the S&P 500 disappoint, that would be highly concerning to me. We haven't seen any evidence of that. We aren't bracing for any evidence of that in the near term.

[Natalia Kenny]

I have to ask you John, about systematic funds because as we remember in March this market was really driven by technical factors. What does your data tell us right now about how positioning look like looks like across CTAs well control funds. And what does it mean again for the stock market direction?

[Andrew Feldman]

Systematic funds have had a solid year of performance and right now they are relatively full in terms of S&P 500 exposure. This is an incredibly momentum driven community and right now as the market moves higher, they will continue, continue to add. That being said, the highest velocity of buying is behind us. If we do take a turn lower, you know, have several more days of what we're going through today, you will see that CTA community start to sell the equity market. That being said, the systematic positioning in the marketplace is very small relative to retail, relative to corporates, relative to hedge funds, Ashes asset manager, sovereign wealth funds. So that would be one noteworthy piece of supply. We think all the other sleeves of demand outweigh that in a move lower.

[Natalia Kenny]

I agree, but at the same time when they sell, you really feel it because they do it so quickly.

[Tim Stenovec]

Correct.

[Natalia Kenny]

So again, regarding today's sell off, we see that The S&P 500 basically is now trading P E ratio closer to long term average. So do you feel that the market right now is fairly priced in ahead of the next earnings season?

[Andrew Feldman]

We don't think it's overly expensive. We get this question in terms of, you know, are we optimistic on earnings? Yes, we get this question within memory space all the time and we still think memory, memory, one of the highest momentum sleeves of the market right now is still relatively fairly priced. And we see that with our institutional clients right now there's a ton of focus and create India in Taiwan, Taiwan outside of the US and it's. There is still, you know, there's still real value to find. Even though some of these markets appear to have gone up and to the right, there's still room to run because the fundamentals back it.

[Carol Massar]

Hey John just. Oh gosh, go ahead Natasha.

[Natalia Kenny]

No, please go ahead Carol.

[Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Announcer]

Hey.

[Carol Massar]

Well, I've just got to ask John, we just got about 30, 40 seconds. We obviously want like an hour with you because this is all come back incredible. The ipo, cerebras, IPO that was the biggest we're getting ready for the space X IPO anthropic ipo. Just watching, I know you can't talk specifics, but does any of this smell a little bit like a top of the market or does it all feel justified and fundamentally justified? And again, just got about 30 seconds.

[Andrew Feldman]

As of right now, we still think that fundamentals justify what we're seeing go on in the equity market. So, so yes, like we are constructive on our desk. We think S&P 500. We think these dips are buying opportunities and and we think that there's a clear path to 8,000 and beyond this year.

[Carol Massar]

Wow. All right, John Flood, thank you so much. Goldman Sachs partner, head of America's Equities Execution Services. I hope you will grace us with coming back again. And joining us, Natalia Kenny, David, of course too, and really appreciate it. She is Bloomberg News Equity equities reporter back there at Bloomberg headquarters.

[Tim Stenovec]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this,

[Kalpen (Cal Penn)]

Everyone, it's Cal Penn. I'm the host of Hearsay, the Audible and I Heart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I am sitting down with Ray Porter, the narrator of Andy Weir's audiobook project, Hail Mary Massive sci fi adventure about survival and science and what happens when you wake up alone, very far from Earth.

[Ray Porter]

I really had to make a decision because I caught myself getting that frog in my throat and starting to get teary as I'm narrating some of these sections. And it's like, okay, yo, yo, yo, is this indulgent? And I really thought about it. I was like, no. At this point it would kind of be betraying the trust the author and the listener have in telling this story if I don't go through it. But there's places in this book that deeply, emotionally affected me and I left it on the mic. That's great because it served the story. People will say like, oh my God, I cried at the end. It's like, yeah, dude, me too.

[Kalpen (Cal Penn)]

Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartradio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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[Carol Massar]

Well, the FIFA 2026 World cup kicking off next week across.

[Tim Stenovec]

Did you get your tickets?

[Carol Massar]

I did not. I don't know that I can afford them.

[Tim Stenovec]

I know somebody who's going to five games. Somebody, I'm not joking. A friend of mine is going to five games. He's been saving up.

[Carol Massar]

Did they mortgage? Did he mortgages?

[Tim Stenovec]

He said. I remember I was 7 years old the last time this was in the US in North America. I am going to go. He's going, he's going to four games that he paid for and one for work that a client is taking him to.

[Carol Massar]

I don't, I get it.

[Tim Stenovec]

If you really Seattle, Louisiana, New York,

[Carol Massar]

all over the country also going to games. Games are, of course, our team here at Bloomberg who covers sports. Bloomberg's Vanessa Perdomo Maglione will be at some of the games as well, and she's been reporting out on what to expect some of the controversy because it's not inexpensive to go see some of these games and there's a lot of issues at play, including security. So Vanessa joins us. Vanessa, of course. She is Bloomberg News sports business reporter and host of the Bloomberg Business of Sports podcast back at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City. Also with us is Dan Arnold. He's senior vice president, national operations at the managed security services provider Proto Security. He joins us from Omaha, Nebraska. Dan, great to have you here with Tim, Vanessa and myself. Security is a big issue. You've been in the industry for like a quarter of a century. I'm not trying to date you or age you or anything, but you've seen a lot. You understand. You've worked with corporate security, put the World cup games here in North America, here in the United States. Give us some context. How do you characterize this event in terms of spanned, difficulty and heightened concerns?

[Dan Arnold]

Carol, it's great question and Carol, Tim, Vanessa, thanks for letting me participate. Carol, you can join me in Kansas City if you want to come watch Messi here in a couple of weeks.

[Carol Massar]

I would love to.

[Dan Arnold]

Yeah. Let's, let's do it. You'll sit right beside me. I'm going to be in the stands cheering with the others. But sitting in those stands, you know, I think that's, that's really where your question. And how do you get safely to those stands? This is like 11 sites across the country, right? In the United states alone, it's 11 simultaneous Super Bowls. And the challenge of security for Those environments at 11 at one time is a major strain on public and private municipal and federal security partnerships.

[Vanessa Perdomo Maglione]

Dan, you know, I think the interesting thing here is how differently each city is handling it. We've had a lot of cities come out against the funding that wasn't released right away. But how are different cities, you know, in Kansas City, how is it being handled differently than New York? How. How are each city and the size of those cities go into play here?

[Dan Arnold]

Yeah, the funding certainly is controversial and some challenge, but. But I know what the local folks are doing, and you get private, Private security companies and the public law enforcement, the municipal leadership. I know well over a year, right. There's been very detailed planning, and those groups are very tight and very coordinated. And while they always will want more funds, setting up communication, understanding where forward operating centers will be, understanding how you're going to use technology in and around the venues, different routes, different patrols, you know, how are we going to get people safe, safely in and out of these environments? So the coordination has been very strong, and it's been very exciting to watch these private public partnerships.

[Vanessa Perdomo Maglione]

And just so we know, I mean, because of how differently everyone's handling it, is it up to each city to decide how much they want to invest into security? I mean, every city, like we said, it's different. The MetLife Getting to MetLife is completely different. And having to deal with potentially a Knicks, NBA Finals overlap there is going to cost a little bit more, have a little bit more people. So how are the budgets decided there? And how do they spread out this money?

[Dan Arnold]

Yeah, certainly with FIFA coordination, there are standards and minimum standards for safety and security, but these venues have great and strong security operations, teams. Right. They support NFL events and other events. So these venues have a lot of expertise and experience and understand the funding it does take to provide safety and security for these events. But it's important that it's not one plan fits all. And I think that's what's been very good about the local jurisdictions and the local venues to say routes like you mentioned, to get the MetLife or get to Arrowhead. Wildly different, wildly different needs in each community, in each market. And so, again, I think the funding is. Has been appropriate, could always be more, but. But they've been able to design good, safe, solid security plans. You Know, in all of these local markets that really fit the local market.

[Tim Stenovec]

Dan, I don't want to, obviously I want to give away any secret sauce here, but in an age of where we're seeing drones deployed in ways that was. Were kind of unthinkable in the last few years, it does seem like sort of airborne threats are potentially some of the biggest challenges around the country. How do you think about that in sort of drone technology?

[Dan Arnold]

Yeah, I think with drone technology, with the advancements of, you know, some of the AI with camera systems and operations in the security space, it is been. It has become much cheaper, you know, less expensive to maybe cause some chaos or cause some frustration. Right. With. With drones and other things, people most of the time in good nature want to have cool videos and something for socials, but they don't understand the disruption it causes. And so it is certainly part of the plans, right? There is counterintelligence teams, there are teams with technology trying to monitor their flight restrictions around these facilities. And all of those are in place to try to prevent, but it doesn't mean it's 100%. And so the teams have response plans and have been working hard understanding that some of these technologies and the cost these technologies have made it a little bit easier to cause a little disruption.

[Vanessa Perdomo Maglione]

Dan, one thing I want to ask you about, that I've been hearing about because of the inflated prices on some of the transportation, is that some fans are going to try and, and find ways to walk to the stadiums. How do you plan for something like that?

[Dan Arnold]

Well, it's. It's certainly depends on the market, right. A little harder to probably walk the MetLife than it is some others. But you, you have major issues with all the just transport in general, right. The public transportation routes like you mentioned. But as we're talking about pedestrian traffic, the choke points and, you know, guide paths, that you need to be able to do that safely and securely, not disrupt traffic, is highly challenging. And so they are working very hard to allow pedestrians and others to get to these facilities. It is not the easiest path. It is not usually the common path of these facilities. But there are, I'd say, centrifuges, levels of security.

[Carol Massar]

Security.

[Dan Arnold]

Right. There are layers and layers of security. They start got it very, very close to the facility. And so as you go out further

[Carol Massar]

around, Dan, we got to run. We got to run. So apologize. Dan Arnold and of course, our own Vanessa Perdomo Maglione. This is Bloomberg.

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