Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: "Chevron Lines Up 11 Ships as Venezuela’s Dark Fleet Vanishes"

Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec (Bloomberg)

Overview

This episode dives into recent geopolitical and economic maneuvers disrupting the global energy landscape, focusing on U.S. actions in Venezuela, the fallout for markets and global power players (notably China), and the wider implications for commodities, supply chains, and financial markets. The show also explores the booming prediction markets industry, trends in metals and crypto, and the outlook for M&A and private credit in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Operations in Venezuela & Broader Geopolitical Moves (02:16–14:34)

• Peter Cheer (Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities) discusses the recent, rapid U.S. operation in Venezuela, suggesting it signals a new phase in American global strategy, with ripple effects for China, global resources, and allied nations.
  • “It was a very impressive military operation... incredibly fast. Now, I think we're not going to see a lot on oil energy prices. I think there's a lot of building out.” (03:00, Peter Cheer)
• Not a “quick fix”—expect protracted tension, especially given China’s investments and loans in Venezuela.
  • “This is our first real confrontation with China away from either country's sphere of influence... If China gets pushed out of Venezuela easily, that could have a big roll-on effect for their Belt and Road Initiative.” (03:22–03:57, Peter Cheer)
• The U.S. is actively seeking greater control over key global shipping lanes and resources—Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, even raising the (unlikely) issue of Greenland.
  • “We really want to control shipping through Central, South America, and the Panama Canal is a big part of that.” (05:08, Peter Cheer)
  • Hosting generals/admirals now in government shaping strategy, including U.S. Arctic ambitions given the melting ice caps.
• Rising theme: “Production for security”—reshoring chips, energy (solar, nuclear, less wind), and seeking more robust domestic supply chains.
  • “I think this is now truly going to replace ESG as a major policy tool... We don't really have the basics covered if we're dependent on China for basics.” (10:37, Peter Cheer)
• Economic consequences: Potentially higher prices domestically, but boosted manufacturing and some sense of national “urgency and self-sacrifice.”
  • “If you can go back to working for ... national champions, you probably go home feeling safer about your job. It creates a sense of urgency and self-sacrifice.” (11:28, Peter Cheer)
• Focus shifts to U.S.-Mexico-Colombia policy, shifting rules of engagement on drug cartels, tying economic stability and migration to regional security.
  • “Somewhere in late Q1, early Q2, we approach Mexico... we can work with you to get rid of your cartels or we can get rid of them without you.” (12:37, Peter Cheer)
• Outlook: Cautiously optimistic on “build out of infrastructure,” but sees China’s control of rare earths as the top risk.

2. The Prediction Markets Boom (17:25–27:45)

• Guests:
  • Denita Sokova (Bloomberg News, Cross Asset Reporter)
  • Lydia Bayoud (Bloomberg News, Financial Regulations Reporter)
• Explosion in markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, with huge user growth and eye-opening VC investment. Both traditional and new finance involved.
  • “2025 was a year of prediction markets... Kalshi and Polymarket... both ended the year in the double digits of billions.” (18:33, Denita Sokova)
• Platforms enable bets on everything from politics to pop culture, but regulatory and ethical boundaries are murky.
  • “There are mention markets on what you might say in your quarterly call. Do you swing a market just for funsies?” (22:11, Lydia Bayoud)
• Legislation seeks to curb insider bets, as prediction markets' rules differ from securities trading.
  • “Richie Torres is planning to introduce legislation that would... prohibit that type of trading on prediction markets.” (20:36, Lydia Bayoud)
• There's a blurry line between gambling and market utility for price discovery.
• Kalshi is regulated under the CFTC, but Polymarket exploits a gray area, with bets and user-base outside the agency's reach.
  • “We've seen very different decisions... Polymarket, who is not under [CFTC] jurisdiction, actually kept the market.” (26:41, Denita Sokova)
• Regulators understaffed and overwhelmed; future oversight of this financial frontier remains uncertain.

3. Metals, Crypto, and Asset Flows in a Bifurcated Economy (29:08–37:49)

• Guest:
  • David Royal (CIO, Thrive In, nearly $200B AUM)
• Massive client interest in gold and silver—more than ever before—due to fears of currency debasement and political turmoil.
  • “I've never gotten more questions about gold and silver from clients... I think it's fears of currency debasement.” (29:25, David Royal)
• Crypto interest has waned as Bitcoin faltered; metals and traditional alternatives are preferred.
  • “There's a lot less interest in crypto, probably because Bitcoin's been weaker.” (31:25, David Royal)
• Big money has shifted into money markets and muni bonds as rates stay high, but with expected Fed cuts, duration is now attractive.
  • “Money market assets have... doubled from 4 trillion four years ago to 8 trillion... Our own money market fund has quadrupled.” (33:10, David Royal)
• Municipal bonds (munis) are the favored yield pick for taxable investors.
  • “I'd buy an actively managed municipal bond fund.” (33:52, David Royal)
• Equities and small/mid-cap stocks are favored, especially those with product innovation not dependent on macro tailwinds.
  • “You want companies that can drive growth through product innovation and not just relying on the macro environment.” (36:41, David Royal)

4. Private Credit & M&A Outlook for 2026 (40:14–47:36)

• Guest: Christina Lee (Managing Director, U.S. Private Debt Strategy, Oaktree Capital Management)
• Renewed M&A optimism after 2025's stall; backlog expected to clear as private equity seeks much-needed exits.
  • “There's enthusiasm... especially on the private equity side... They need exits, they need to provide distributions back to the limited partners. We are seeing a backlog of deals.” (40:40, Christina Lee)
• From a credit perspective, deals remain solid, with supply/demand imbalances in private debt pressuring spreads.
• Private credit dry powder is abundant, with both private debt and equity funds seeking deployment.
• The upcoming M&A wave is a blend of pent-up demand and a healthier market environment, but a real economic downturn remains the threat to this momentum.
  • “I think one of the things that will spook investors and... the M&A market is any type of downturn. We haven't had a real downturn since 2009.” (45:15, Christina Lee)
• Oaktree's new Evergreen Direct Lending Fund is growing, serving investors' demand for flexible, stable private credit exposure.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is our first real confrontation with China away from either kind of sphere of influence... If China gets pushed out of Venezuela very easily... it could be a big roll on effect.”
  — Peter Cheer, 03:22
• “I think this is now truly going to replace ESG as a major policy tool... We don't really have the basics covered if we're dependent on China for basics.”
  — Peter Cheer, 10:37
• “Who would have thought we would shoot a drug boat? We're now doing that. The world would have gone ballistic if we did that in the Gulf of Mexico... Now it's standard operating procedure.”
  — Peter Cheer, 12:37
• “I've never gotten more questions about gold and silver from clients ... it's fears of currency debasement.”
  — David Royal, 29:25
• “2025 was a year of prediction markets. ... Their [Kalshi and Polymarket] valuation went through the roof.”
  — Denita Sokova, 18:33
• “There are mention markets on what you might say in your quarterly call. Do you swing a market just for funsies?”
  — Lydia Bayoud, 22:11
• “There's enthusiasm. ... [Private equity] needs exits, ... there is a backlog of deals to hit for 2026.”
  — Christina Lee, 40:40

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:16–14:34 — Macro geopolitics: Venezuela, China, “production for security,” U.S. hemispheric strategy
• 17:25–27:45 — The rise, regulation, and culture of prediction markets
• 29:08–37:49 — Metals, crypto, and investor flows in turbulent times
• 40:14–47:36 — Oaktree’s Christina Lee on M&A, private credit, and market cycles

Tone & Style

• Approachable but deeply analytical, featuring sharp, pragmatic market commentary—direct but occasionally wry or humorous.
• Guests, especially Peter Cheer and Christina Lee, blend big-picture analysis with actionable, sometimes blunt insights for investors and executives.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• The episode provides a panoramic look at why Venezuela matters far beyond oil—think mineral resources, China’s ambitions, and U.S. strategic chokepoints.
• The economic “new world order” theme runs throughout—from U.S. self-sufficiency and supply chain security to the oddball world of betting on everything from commodity prices to celebrity marriages.
• Expect higher vigilance (and possibly higher prices) as every country rushes to secure resources and production, spawning new opportunities in infrastructure, mining, energy, and private credit.
• The investment picture is shifting—gold, munis, small caps, and private credit are the hot tickets, while crypto interest ebbs.
• If you’re trading, building, investing, or just watching, what happens next in Venezuela, U.S.-China rivalry, and M&A land will shape the 2026 business world.