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Josh Whalen
Than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes when you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50 off. I'm Josh Whalen, Founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get started@joy and blokes.com and use a promo code. Podcast new customers get 50% off their labs and for a limited time you can take advantage of our $1ed or hair loss add ons when you start TRT or Enclomiphene not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Learn more@joyandbloaks.com did you know you can.
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Eric
Let's get to Peter Cheer. He's head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He's back with us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. It is kind of wild, Peter, considering how this year has started and the actions in Venezuela and then kind of markets to look past it. I'm just curious your view on this and I'm curious what kind of calls you were getting from either clients at your firm.
Peter Cheer
So we certainly had a lot of questions about Venezuela over the weekend. And, you know, into this week, it's at academy we work with 30 retired generals and admirals. We've been doing.
Eric
We had one on yesterday.
Peter Cheer
That's right. Yeah. Master Robinson, he's great. So, yeah, I think we, I think the market moves actually do make sense, though. I think this is start of the year stuff. You know, you got CES going on. So there's a lot of, you know, headlines coming out of Vegas that people seem to like. So I'm not surprised that we're kind of rallying away from that. I think on Venezuela, it was a very impressive military operation. Whatever else you want to think about it, it was very successful, incredibly fast. You know, this very precision. Now, I think we're not going to see a lot on oil energy prices. I think there's a lot of building out. And what I think this is going to really.
Eric
This is a quick fix.
Peter Cheer
None of this is a quick fix. And I think what this is really going to boil down to is this is our first real confrontation with China away from either kind of sphere of influence. Right. If you think about all the trade negotiations was mainland China versus us. You know, there were some tariffs, but all of a sudden we're going and saying we're going to take stuff. China's invested a lot of money there. China has a lot of loans to companies. How is that friction going to play out? China's going to use their lawyers to try and stop things. I think this is really important too for China, because if they kind of get pushed out of Venezuela very easily and they lose money, the rest of the world, where they put out their belt and road initiative, starts looking at that and it could be a big roll on effect. So I think we're going to see friction. I honestly think we're going to see China first attack with lawyers, and they won't attack anything until they start seeing what we're actually doing. So far, it's just been a lot of talk and noise.
Guest Host / Moderator
Venezuela was the story yesterday and it certainly is today. But in the last few minutes, Greenland has become more of a story. President Trump and his team are discussing a range of options for acquiring Greenland. A Reuters reporter says in a post on X, citing a White House statement. Where does that strategy fit in?
Peter Cheer
That one's a hard one for us. I think when we look at the world, when we try to view Iran, we could see maybe doing something the irgc. I don't Think we would do anything with the religious side of Iran in any way, shape or form.
Guest Host / Moderator
When you say do something, what do you mean?
Peter Cheer
Maybe with support, you know, attacks from the IRG facilities or something. If the IRGC gets very aggressive against the protesters, I could see something going on there. Cuba seems a little bit more easier to deal with. We already have the, you know, USS Ford is in the Caribbean Sea. It's actually not a very efficient place for it to be. It's too small of an area for an aircraft carrier group and it's due for some refitting and remodeling. So I think we will try and use it as much as possible. So that's why we weren't surprised about action in Venezuela. I think we could see activity in and around Panama Canal where we try and either buy it or invest in it.
Guest Host / Moderator
Is that a. For a China proxy?
Peter Cheer
I think for a China proxy. Again, I think we really want to control shipping through central South America and the Panama Canal is a big part of that. And don't forget Marco Rubio is the first place he went on Greenland. I think we all struggle with why this term annex or take keeps coming up. I think that's a struggle.
Guest Host / Moderator
So to recap, Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran makes sense. Greenland, not so much.
Peter Cheer
I find it very difficult to play why we would disrupt Naito Again. I think we've been less thoughtful on NATO and where its important is. But this kind of puts a lot of friction. And even from a business standpoint, I think I can believe that in Venezuela there's a lot of rarest and critical minerals that have been underinvested in. I find it hard to believe someone hasn't been checking out Greenland and saying this is just economically unviable. I do know, and I think this is interesting because one of our generals is actually now the undersecretary of War and before he became Under Secretary of War while he was still working with us, he did talk about and point out that China has more icebreakers than we do. And so China views themselves as an Arctic nation. Russia clearly views themselves as an Arctic nation. So maybe this is something to do with as the polar ice caps are melting, that it creates different routes, so we want some more protection there. So maybe some of that makes sense. But again, that all feels like it could be done within the confines of existing rules and regulations rather than having kind of this annex or take concept.
Eric
Yeah, I mean, I don't know. How are you thinking about this year when it comes to the Trump White House and especially with midterms looming, it's. I've heard some folks say that, listen, there's a lot of pressure on the administration to get things done early in the year because as midterms loom, there are expectations that there might be push, get pushback against the GOP and the Trump administration. But I'm just curious what you're telling your clients.
Peter Cheer
So what we've really liked is what we've been calling prosec or production for security. And it's kind of along the lines of resilience. And that includes anything from chips, electricity, so intel, for example, I think there's going to be huge pressure on companies to use US Chip manufacturers. Right. We have to break away from Taiwan. I think there's realization we're not producing enough electricity. We will deregulate. We'll get electricity and all forms running. I do think President Trump will give up on his kind of hatred of solar and adapt solar. But you're going to see solar, nuclear. I do. I think it's just wind.
Guest Host / Moderator
Wind is a step too far.
Peter Cheer
I think wind's a step too far.
Guest Host / Moderator
He really does not like wind.
Peter Cheer
He really does not like. I think there's a visceral hate to it, partly. I think it does destroy views. I think there's questions about its efficiencies and it does kill birds and stuff. And that seems to really bother him. So I'm not going to fight the wind. I do think on solar, house cats.
Guest Host / Moderator
Kill a lot of birds, too.
Peter Cheer
House cats, truly, that is probably true. We had one that was very good at that. So, yeah, so I think those are all the things that we can invest in. We just saw yesterday 2.7 billion going into uranium companies. So I think you can move away from the AI story and into anything that's going to be part of this building out of infrastructure. You know, you've got cat, you've got Deere, Navistar, all the heavy equipment makers. I think we're going to see real efforts to become slightly more independent.
Eric
Are all nations doing that?
Peter Cheer
So how I see this starting is the US really jumpstarted this. Right? The US has been all over this. I think what we're starting to see now is capital is going to follow next. So investors are starting to follow this. We talk to private equity companies who are starting to scour the universe for, hey, who's got mining rights that have been unused? Who's got some interesting patents in and around these rare earths and critical minerals? I think you're going to see again, these Huge buildouts potentially in electricity production.
Eric
So it's capitalization dead.
Peter Cheer
Well, I think other countries are going to figure this out eventually, that they have to do it. I think at some point Europe's going to release like Shell and BP to actually do what they're phenomenally good at. And so far there's still constraints, but I think everyone's adopting this. I think you have to look much closer when you're thinking about supply chains.
Guest Host / Moderator
Domestic political risk of this new world order. That's something I've been thinking a lot about, especially in an election year, because we thought that, that the Make America Great Again movement was really about keeping within the U.S. s borders, not getting involved in foreign wars. The President has talked about leaving countries outside of the US Alone and that's not really what we've gotten in the last few months.
Peter Cheer
No. Though I will say I think if prior to Liberation Day and stuff, I think there was a lot of hope that we'd work very closely with Canada because Canada has a lot of things that we need that would be a big part of this. We work closer with Mexico and we kind of got away from that. So I think this starts maybe it's just trying to reshape how these relationships work. Ultimately, I think we're going to need things like potash, we're going to need to work with Canada. But I do think they laid it out of the National Security Strategy and so only 39 pages of double space. It's even. I could read it. So I would recommend reading it because I think it does form this way. We've been telling corporations for years now and I think now we're getting a lot of incoming calls. Like we've been saying, if you are manufacturing in Thailand and Vietnam, you're not really diversified because you're going through the same shipping lanes. So I think you've got to be very careful about shipping. If you're looking at building a new plant this year, I think you want to build it in North South America or Central America or the US Precisely because that's where we have a lot more control. So I think that's where corporations follow into this. And I don't want to say it's going to be us by ourselves. What I've been trying to say is I think for every single commodity or product, every country is going to have an X amount that they want to do themselves so they can be sufficient. Why you can do with your close neighbors and then Z or Z you just do on the open market. And I Think that's going to vary by country to country, what they can do. But I think Europe's behind on this. I think the sad thing is if I look at what we need to do in the US you have a pretty good roadmap. Just look at China's done for the last 10 years, right? They basically done prosecution on steroids and we're just starting to do it. But it's exciting and I think some of it will last past an election cycle because Biden did do the chips act, right? So Biden was not, you know, immune to like understanding a lot of President.
Eric
Trump in his first term, his China, China strategy.
Peter Cheer
Right. So I think this is now truly going to replace ESG as a major policy tool, as a major way corporations think and how investors think. Right. If everything was esg, I think where we were really is. If you think about maslow's hierarchy of needs, one probably, you know, psych 101 it proves I took it. But we were kind of at this kind of high self actualization period. Like what would we like sustainability look like? But it was all based on the premise that we had the basics covered. Well, we don't really have the basics covered if we're dependent on China for those basics. So I think this is a pullback to say to be truly sustainable and independent and resilient, you need to do some core level of this stuff yourself. And that's where I think we are. It's that evolution.
Eric
What are the implications of that in terms of cost to society, in terms of does it make things more expensive if we're, if we're doing more manufacturing, the United States? Well, labor isn't cheap here. So I'm just curious, what are the implications, what does it mean for economic growth maybe in the United States?
Peter Cheer
So I think it's going to be potentially a little bit higher on some prices. So it's very good that oil and some of these energy costs are coming down. That will help on this. At the flip side of that though is if people can go back to working for, you know, I hate to say the word, but say it like national champions, right? Where you feel that your industry, your job is important to the country, you probably go home feeling slightly safer about your job. I think there's a lot of benefits from this. We've been talking about the. Spider Marx is great. He kind of coined the phrase for us. Who is Spider Marx? General Spider Marx. He's quite awesome. But he coined the phrase like we're in a pre war environment. And we've always been in a post war environment until recently. And I think pre war sounds a little bit scary, but it's just like deterrence. If you understand that you're in a pre war and you do the preparation properly, you. You deter the enemy. And I think the things that to me are really crucial about a pre war is it creates a sense of urgency, which we're seeing, and self sacrifice.
Guest Host / Moderator
We're speaking with Peter Cheer, head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Peter, you mentioned a few. We went through a little bit around the globe. When we talked about Iran, we talked about Venezuela, we talked about Greenland, Cuba, Panama. What about Mexico and what about Colombia? Have they been put on notice?
Peter Cheer
I think Colombia has been put on notice. I've been much more focused on Mexico. So one of the things that we believe to some degree is we've been changing the rules of engagement with Venezuela. Right. If you go back four months ago, who would have thought we would shoot a drug boat? We're now doing that. I think the world would have gone ballistic if we did that in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America. Now, though it's now standard operating procedure. Right. We've attacked some of the drug facilities. I suspect that somewhere in Q1, Q2, late Q1, early Q2, we approach Mexico very seriously and tell Scheinbaum, like, we can work with you to get rid of your cartels or we can get rid of the air cartels without you. And to me, the one thing we haven't talked, I know we're talking about so much oil. If we can solve Venezuela's drug problem and cartel problem and Mexico, it makes both of those countries safer, more viable countries. Fewer people need to migrate. So I think it fits perfectly.
Eric
But then in terms of drugs, maybe I'm crazy here. And I know we've only got about 40 seconds left here. What about China and fentanyl? Like, have we covered that? If we're talking about narco terrorists, I think some might say, wait a minute.
Peter Cheer
I'm looking at this more from the ability to kind of make those countries safer, where you have some ability to influence it so that people don't want to leave. A lot of people. You talk to people coming from Mexico, their choice is letter silver.
Guest Host / Moderator
Yeah.
Peter Cheer
You either fight the cartel and die, or you join the cartel.
Eric
Venezuela, 8 million people or something.
Peter Cheer
So I think if you can do that, and on top of that, if you cut the head off the snake, maybe the drug cartels and their activities in the US do slow down.
Eric
So are you positive about the year? Are you upbeat?
Peter Cheer
I am actually I'm very positive. I think again this build out is going to be very interesting. The biggest risk to me is China threatening and doing something about rarest and critical minerals because we're not there yet where we need to be.
Eric
10 seconds. If we've if President Trump wasn't in the White House again for a second term, would we be having this conversation?
Peter Cheer
No, I think he actually really kind of planned ahead of this though some of it I think we would have finally seen because we've been talking about rarest criminals for years and years. We're finally realizing the chips act, realized some of this. This is a how we're doing it is just stronger and more aggressive.
Eric
Such a great conversation. Peter Cheer over at Macro Strategy and Academy Securities.
Guest Host / Moderator
Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily Coming up after this.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host
Business challenges and opportunities are never one dimensional At Marsh, we believe that to thrive, you need perspective. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new marsh where each layer of our organization works even more closely together to provide you with a stronger, more panoramic perspective. We're now one firm solving the world's most complex challenges and unlocking opportunities for you across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting. As business continues to evolve, Marsh will always be here to help you overcome new challenges, answer new questions and take advantage of new opportunities. We're better positioned than ever to provide the perspective you need to fuel progress forward. See how@visitmarsh.com podcast if you're paying more.
Josh Whalen
Than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes when you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50% off. I'm Josh Whalen, founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get started@joyandblokes.com and use the promo code podcast new customers get 50 off their labs and for a limited time you can take advantage of our $1 ED or HA plus add ons when you start TRT or enclomiphene not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Learn more@joyandblooks.com if you're an H Vac.
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Guest Host / Moderator
Bloomberg spoke with economists, U.S. politicians and heads of trading firms and hedge funds to understand really what's at stake in the prediction markets boom. Denita Sokova and Lydia Bayoud are part of the team behind the story. Denita is Bloomberg News cross asset reporter. Lydia is Bloomberg News financial regulations reporter Denise here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Lydia joins us from Bloomberg's Washington, D.C. bureau. Lydia, I want to start with you in Washington because you cover financial regulations, prediction markets. Is it fair to call it gambling?
Lydia Bayoud
I think these days people increasingly are seeing a blurred line there. The to your point about marketing speak, the the companies are very keen to describe themselves one way but certainly within Washington, I don't think a lot of people are seeing much of a difference and for sure in the sports gaming world they see them as direct competitors.
Eric
Yeah, it's interesting. Gaming, gambling, what exactly is this? Denisa, come on in. For those who maybe have been, you know, living under a rock, which is kind of fine, I like to of hibernate every once in a while, remind us what these prediction markets are all about and who are the big players.
Denita Sokova
Yeah, 2025 was a year of prediction markets. We had two big firms kind of dominate the space, of course, Kalshi and Poly Market. Their valuation went through the roof. They started from like 1, 2 billion and both ended the year in the double digits of billions. So really, really rapid growth. And we're seeing not only those tech Silicon Valley names, we're seeing a lot of traditional finance names. We're seeing cme, we're seeing a lot of those Traditional finance players getting involved in the space. So clearly this is interesting. More beyond Silicon Valley. The volumes are crazy.
Eric
So. So. But tell us how it works. Like can Tim or I can we go out and place a bet? Like how. Who determines who can do what on the platform?
Denita Sokova
Super simple, super easy. So obviously sports betting, you have to be 21 for this. 18 is enough. It's very accessible. You go, the bet is like as cheap as like a few cents or a door and you just go and create it. Very simple.
Eric
Yeah, you can create the bet.
Denita Sokova
No, you cannot create the bet. You can place.
Eric
That's what I'm asking.
Denita Sokova
Yeah, there is a way to claim a market, but of course it's up to the platform to create. But as we have seen in recent months, there is a lot of variety of bets on things that you know anywhere else you can bet from the bet on Nicolas Maduro being outed to any type of pop culture thing and.
Guest Host / Moderator
Any top artist on Spotify this year is on.
Denita Sokova
Of course that's very popular. Any type of mention market. People are watching like politicians talk on TV and betting on every word they say, every twist. Like people are even making fun of this. We famously had the Coinbase CEO knowing that people are watching what he says on the earning calls. So he was, he was crashing the market.
Guest Host / Moderator
So that's where I want to bring in Lydia. Because when you're in a world Lydia Bayou, where they're is one person in control, like a CEO of a company like Elon Musk, if the number of tweets that he sends between a certain period of time, that's a bet on Polymarket right now or prediction on Polymarket that one can make. What is the slippery slope that opens when one person is in control of the outcome here?
Lydia Bayoud
So that's something that I think regulators and policymakers are really grappling with. Particularly I think the Maduro example that we highlight in the story has really made that so salient for everyone right now. Generally federal rules prohibit federal employees from trading on non public information for their own financial game. I think Representative Richie Torres is planning to introduce legislation, if he hasn't already this week that would like very clearly prohibit that type of trading on prediction markets. But really we're kind of facing like a different regime compared to how I think a lot of people think about insider trading that is regulated in equities markets or markets overseen by the securities and Exchange Commission. Because you know, if you're in the derivative space and you are an energy producer, an agriculture producer, you're expected to trade on knowing, you know, my crop's really great this year or we're pumping so much oil and gas out of the ground, you know, I'm able to hedge my position and sort of let my knowledge that I have inform both me and then the market. You know, there's kind of a market utility argument that is made in those traditional markets and we're seeing that again, sort of these blurred lines shift into prediction markets and people sort of grappling like, okay, well what's okay insider information. Like what benefits everyone to have insiders trading and kind of, you know, as they like to say, drawing on the wisdom of the crowd and doing price improvement.
Eric
But so not exactly truth machines. Right.
Lydia Bayoud
Well, that is the big debate about how are you going to draw that line about, you know, if you are Elon Musk in your there are mention markets and what you might say during your, you know, not to pick on Elon anyone, any executive.
Josh Whalen
Right.
Lydia Bayoud
You're going to, you know, there are mention markets on what you might say in your quarterly call. Do you swing a market just for funsies? Do you swing it knowing that, you know, your buddy's buddy's buddy might have some money riding on the line? And then how do does anyone catch that? Should they be catching it? There's so many open policy questions that are being asked I think around Washington right now because of these markets.
Guest Host / Moderator
Yeah, there's an interesting, you know, I'm just going through call she you could spend I know know both of you did this. Like you can spend hours going through this but like does it really serve the markets? It needs to ask if will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey be married before January 1st?
Eric
That's important stuff.
Denita Sokova
It is important stuff. We had a lot of Bloomberg headlines on this as well. But did we. But it is important. So what a lot of those prediction micro believers says we're going to bring a lot of people through sports. So for example, Koshi has 90% of their volumes very often coming from sports. So it's pretty hard to make the argument that this is a truth machine at the moment. But what some people hope and believe is that eventually some of those casino elements of those betting elements, we will bring people who want to bet on things like economic data, things like maybe people want to hedge. Like the hedging scenario is something that has come up a lot. Talking to people, it seems like it's not coming anytime soon. But people are saying, oh maybe I want to hedge the weather in Florida. Maybe have a house and I can buy insurance.
Eric
Well, I don't understand that.
Guest Host / Moderator
They keep going on topic and I'm trying to take them off topic. Like here's another one, for example, what will Rachel Maddows say during Jimmy Kimmel Live?
Lydia Bayoud
Right.
Guest Host / Moderator
Okay, that's a classic measure, Epstein. Corrupt, slash corruption. Ice, Russia, Ukraine, affordable affordability, health care.
Eric
All right, but there's serious stuff like the Fed decision in January.
Guest Host / Moderator
89% say I find actually helpful for what we do.
Eric
And we talked about this during elections and different things.
Denita Sokova
For sure, elections have proven to be one pretty good.
Eric
Help me understand though.
Josh Whalen
And.
Eric
Well, you know, Lydia, come on back in here. One of the things I'm curious about is like who is checking? Who is making these trades? Is Kalshee or is Polymarket? Are they actually checking? Especially when it could be potentially insider trading? Do they know exactly who's making these trades? Are they doing due diligence?
Lydia Bayoud
So these exchanges are structured as self regulatory organizations. So they're supposed to kind of self monitor monitor trades and root out any potential for market manipulation. Again, the sort of where you draw the line between what's okay and what's not okay on insider trading, that's a judgment call, I think, except in all but the most clear cut instances. But you know, exchanges can self report information to the cftc. The CFTC can look into it. Again, it operates differently than the securities Exchange Commission.
Eric
But what's the bandwidth for regulators to want to take this on?
Lydia Bayoud
The CFTC is chronically underfunded. They have, I think roughly 500 staff. The SEC has four or five times, maybe 10 times that number, not quite. But they are understaffed for the task at hand. And there are more applicants. I think we mentioned in the story that there are, there's a lot of interest driven heavily by sports trading, but also in the economics, also in other spaces. And so they're kind of underwater in terms of all that there is to do for market demand for this space. So I think a lot of people are wondering what this CFTC will do. But if we look at the new chairman, Michael Selig, when he was an attorney in private practice, he wrote a comment letter that was pushing back during the Biden administration on any effort to rein in sports prediction markets, for example, or really most prediction markets. So I think you've got someone who's very, you know, he said he's going to defer to the courts on how the courts might eventually rule on this topic. But at least when he was an attorney representing clients, he was very much in favor of them.
Guest Host / Moderator
Before we let you guys go, Denita, if we think about the universe of prediction markets, Robinhood's getting into it. Kalshi and Polymarket are the big ones and they count. I think of Trump as advisors to both of those.
Denita Sokova
Yeah.
Guest Host / Moderator
Are they are these all regulated the same way or is one regulated differently than the others?
Denita Sokova
So also obviously they have the Trump as advisor and Trump Media is looking into launching a prediction market and a lot of the sports betting companies are looking to also get into prediction market the way so Kalshi so far is obviously under the cftc. Polymarket is just entering the US they have this beta test so they're only onboarding some users. So currently most of the bets on Polymarket are actually in this weird regulatory space where a lot of them are coming from abroad and isn't necessarily regulated under the cftc. We've seen very different decisions. For example, there was a market connected with the United Care CEO killing and CFTC asked how she to remove that market, but Polymarket, who is not under that jurisdiction, actually kept the market. So you can see there are very different outcomes depending on the regulation.
Eric
Will a human land on Mars before California starts a high speed rail? 19% chance costs 20 cents for yes, 85 cents for no.
Guest Host / Moderator
Well, what counts as the high speed rail?
Eric
I'm just it just like I'm just reading.
Guest Host / Moderator
Okay, stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this Foreign.
Josh Whalen
If you're paying more than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes. When you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50% off. I'm Josh Whand, founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get started@joyandblokes.com and use a promo code podcast new customers get 50% off their labs and for a limited time you can take advantage of our $1 ed or hair loss add ons when you start TRT or Enclomiphene not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Learn more at Joanne Blokes.com you're listening.
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Guest Host / Moderator
David Royal is chief financial and investment officer over at Thrive In. The firm has close to $200 billion in a probably more as of now. That's a number from a little over a year ago. David, what did you, what did you think of what we heard from Mike McGlone just now? I mean, is this, is this what happens in a late stage bull market?
David Royal
Yeah, I think so. And I was amused. Absolutely. You know, I've never gotten more questions about gold and silver from clients and I regularly meet with clients and our, and our advisors. I think it's fears of currency debasement. So the retail clients are really interested in metals right now. And the question I always ask in response when I get a question about gold is what problem are you trying to solve? Gold or silver? If you're worried about currency debasement, you could have a diversified portfolio of commodities stocks. There are probably better ways to deal with inflation or currency risk than just owning gold or silver. But you know, silver is behaving like high beta gold right now. I mean, and it does feel very.
Eric
Technical that currency debasement, the dollar mostly or current.
David Royal
I mean, we have dollar weakness early in the year, dollar strengthened later in the year. I think it's general concerns about the deficit and the federal budget that's so interesting.
Guest Host / Moderator
I mean, I go back to this idea of you hearing from clients more about metals than, than ever before. Is that indicative of something within the markets right now? I mean, you said, you mentioned the currency debasement is a concern of theirs, but is there something else happening to you think like this is sort of a YOLO buy everything rally or beyond.
Eric
The, beyond the concerns about the.
David Royal
I think it's less YOLO and more, you know, it's a very, you know, bifurcated economy. You know, a lot of concerns, political turmoil. People are just very concerned right now. Consumer confidence is very weak despite the economy being strong.
Eric
You know, I've got to tell you how many people have come around this table and said, well wait a minute, you know, the stock market's hitting records, the wealthier consumer, which is so important in terms of consumer spending, doing just fine. I agree with you. That lower rung of the case shape. I'm concerned. Tim's concerned. You sound concerned. I mean, we all should Be concerned. Right.
Josh Whalen
Because.
Eric
Because that's a big part of certainly America. So I just do wonder, and I wonder when. When people care more broadly and when it does really matter in terms of the overall economic health of this country.
David Royal
Yeah, you know, I certainly get a lot more questions about metals than, you know, than crypto these days. And I would say it was the reverse maybe 12 months ago. There's a lot less interest in crypto, probably because bitcoin's been weaker recently and it seems to have shifted. But I think there's just sort of a general generalized concern. And that's again, why I say, what problem are you trying to solve me? Metals and even crypto have probably a place in a diversified portfolio. But again, you know, what role does that have in your overall portfolio?
Guest Host / Moderator
Talk about the interest or lack thereof that you're seeing in crypto right now. I mean, do you actually that thrive in. Is it a part of a recommendation that you have for clients portfolios?
David Royal
We don't broadly. I mean, they have access to it through brokerage. Clients could buy crypto ETFs, and I'm sure some do. It's not part of our centrally managed portfolios that I oversee.
Guest Host / Moderator
What more so is like more traditional, more traditional stock. If somebody wants alternative exposure, what are the alternatives that you recommend?
David Royal
So we, you know, would, you know, look at, you know, potentially metals rates and things like that. Within our mixed asset products, our asset allocation funds, we actually have an allocation to private equity within our daily liquidity mutual funds. It's a small allocation, but we actually do give retail clients $50 a month. You can get access to private equity at Thrive. It. That's a pretty cool thing.
Eric
What do you. Yeah. Where are flows going at this point? Where are investors either asking you to commit or where are you guys recommending? Where's money going into money coming out?
David Royal
You know, we're seeing strong flows into our managed accounts. There's still a lot of interest in equities overall across the industry. You're seeing strong fixed income flows as we have in recent eight years.
Eric
Continuing to see that.
David Royal
Continuing to see that. Yeah.
Eric
Right. Because it was, it was an interesting year where you saw both stocks and bonds do well.
Denita Sokova
Right.
Eric
Which is not typical and always makes me a little nervous and cautious.
David Royal
You know, one other observation on flows is, you know, across the industry, money market assets have, you know, roughly doubled from 4 trillion four years ago to 8 trillion. Our own money market fund has quadrupled over the last three years.
Guest Host / Moderator
But rates are coming down.
David Royal
Rates are coming Down.
Guest Host / Moderator
So where does that.
David Royal
I keep telling clients, clients, you got to be extending duration right now. Lock in these attractive yields.
Guest Host / Moderator
Okay, so where is the right place for a client to put money that's been in a money market, they want access to it, but they also want yield that's higher than 4%. Where can they go?
David Royal
You know what I've been recommending lately in taxable accounts is munis. I knew you were, of course you threw me that. No, I love munis. Right now they're not quite as attractively priced.
Guest Host / Moderator
What's the right way for an investor, like a retail investor to buy munis, especially if they live in a high tax state?
David Royal
I'd buy an actively managed municipal bond fund. And because, you know, you do need, I think active management in that space. You know, we offer two. We have a core muni bond fund and we have a high yield muni fund. So I often recommend clients split their assets between a regular muni.
Guest Host / Moderator
And how high yield are we talking about?
David Royal
You can get about four and a half.
Peter Cheer
Okay.
David Royal
Which on a tax free. Tax free and about four, a little, a little less than four. Okay, that's, that's very attractive because you know, if you look at corporate bonds, you know you're going to get about 5ish percent when you're paying and you're paying taxes on that. So you know, to get a similar tax equivalent yield of you know, seven, seven and a half, you'd be, you'd be well into the high yield space.
Guest Host / Moderator
But this is what happens, Carol, in a rate environment where rates are coming down.
Eric
Yeah, exactly. We'll see whether it continues. I mean, what are your expectations in terms of rates and how that impacts kind of the investment environment.
David Royal
So I think, I think it's going to be interesting this year. You know, we're pricing in, you know, I think it was last, last I looked at course on my Bloomberg terminal, about a 16% chance of a January rate cut. Market's not expecting that, but we are seeing some pretty significant employment weakness. And January is probably off the table, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a couple of cuts in the first half of the year. Of course we're going to have a new Fed chair announced fairly soon. So that May meeting is starting to look like we'll get a cut. But I think, you know, the average rolling three month jobs added was 20,000. And even if you back out the 100,000 or so government jobs that were lost, it's only 50,000 three months over the last three months. Powell in 2024 at Jackson Hole said any further weakening in the labor market would be unwelcome. And they were averaging 120,000amonth back then and actually 170 before revisions based on the information.
Guest Host / Moderator
But, but do we, do we have to look at that comment in the context of a low or no illegal immigration world? Like do we have to completely reset what a healthy number looks like in an environment where Jews.
David Royal
The reason I think we're seeing some increased weakness is really other indicators. So over the last three months we've had 900,000 people move to part time employment for economic reasons. They would like a full time job. That's gone from about four and a half million to almost five and a half million in the last three months. That's the sign of a weakening labor market and wage growth last month was almost zero.
Guest Host / Moderator
So what does that look like for those groups? That group of individuals you talked about is that people who want a full time job but maybe they're doing gig work instead? Yeah, this is what Danielle DiMartino Booth talks to us about. Yeah, she's concerned about the weakness. She's talked about this over the summer.
Eric
I'm not listening because I've been thinking about the stocks. So I'm really sorry, I'm so sorry to interrupt you.
Guest Host / Moderator
Carol, what were you thinking about?
Eric
Well, I was looking at the notes and David, like the stocks that you like. Shark Ninja, Build A Bear. I mean these are not names we talk about.
Guest Host / Moderator
Carol talks a lot about Build A Bear.
David Royal
So I'll give you a boot bars in there too. We love Barn. I don't know if that was on my list. So I'll give you the theme that we like within and we focus a lot on the consumer.
Eric
I do listen to most things you guys say, they're fine.
David Royal
But anyway, yeah, so the theme is we, you know, we talk a little bit about the K shaped economy. The upper end consumer is doing better than the lower end consumer and but the upper end consumer is still looking for value. So you know, you get a trade down like Shark Ninja competes with other firms like a Dyson but at a little lower price point. The other thing we want is companies with product niches or innovation that can drive sales and that aren't relying on macro tailwinds because as I said, we're seeing some economic weakness. So you want companies that can drive growth through product innovation and not just relying on the macro environment.
Eric
You prefer small cap, mid cap space.
David Royal
You know, I like small cap. I mean small caps. Are relatively inexpensive now. Yeah. They're also behaving differently over the past year. So on days when we've had some economic weakness where small caps normally you expect small caps rally, I think second quarter of 2021, you're coming out of a bottom and rip roaring economy. That's when you expect small caps to outperform. They've been doing well. On days of economic weakness where rates come down, I think small caps are behaving much more rate sensitive than than they used to. Yeah. So I think with with the Fed cutting and I think you're going to get a couple of cuts this year, I think that could really benefit small caps. They're more leveraged in large caps and they tend to borrow short.
Guest Host / Moderator
David Royal, Great to see you.
David Royal
Great to see you.
Guest Host / Moderator
Thanks for stopping by for having me Chief Financial and Investment Officer over at. Thanks for Thrive in. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily Coming up after this.
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Guest Host / Moderator
It's our weekly Women Money in Power segment. We speak with some of the most influential women from across the business world. We welcome back Christina Lee, managing director and co portfolio manager for US Private Debt Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management. She joins us here in the studio. Happy New Year. How are you?
Christina Lee
Thank you. Well, thank you so much for having me back on. I think 2026 is a new year and I think as you can tell from the public markets, there's enthusiasm. Enthusiasm. I think from the private side, there's enthusiasm as well.
Guest Host / Moderator
What's the enthusiasm that you're seeing?
Christina Lee
I think it's about M and A Demand, you know, 2024. So when we were sitting back in 2024, thinking about 2025, everyone said with the new administration coming in, M and A is going to have a boom year in 2025. That didn't really happen.
Eric
Right.
Christina Lee
The first nine months, M& A stalled predominantly because there was so much uncertainty, for example, around tariffs, etc. But now I think where we're seeing that enthusiasm is, especially on the private equity side, is private equity has held on to their investments for too long now. They need exits, they need to provide distributions back to the limited partners. So we are seeing a backlog of deals to hit for 2026, which should help.
Guest Host / Moderator
But are they, are they good deals? If the backlog is that they need to return money to clients, they need to exit, like having to, you know, for sales is never a good thing.
Christina Lee
I think from a credit perspective, they're good deals. And why I say that is I think there has been a bit of a mismatch between buyers and sellers in terms of price. What we've seen is those that will sell for 12 times, 15 times, 18 times sell doesn't necessarily mean a business that's going to sell for 10 to 11 times is a bad business. From a Credit perspective. And that's why I think for private credit, seeing that increased demand should be a benefit to the industry. Because in Q4 what we saw was heightened competition because there was a supply demand imbalance, a lot more private debt, dry powder versus M and A deals. Even if you looked at public markets in 2025, the majority of the volume was actually repricing some refinancings. There's very little new issues last year. So this is our year.
Eric
So of new issues.
Christina Lee
Exactly.
Eric
Big deal. So how much dry powder though is out there? Like how much needs to be worked off still?
Lydia Bayoud
Yeah.
Christina Lee
If you were to look at dry powder and private credit versus private equity, everyone's like wow, there's so much dry powder and private credit. There's still a lot of private equity too. There's multiples and so that's why we think one, not only is there dry powder for private equity, a lot of that dry powder is aging. They need to deploy it. These are closed end funds. They have a certain set investment period.
Eric
Right.
Christina Lee
So they're going to be also looking to more deploy as well and there's going to be more companies out there for them to buy.
Guest Host / Moderator
Is there a specific type of company that you're seeing that's going to be doing this out there?
Christina Lee
Yeah, I think what we've seen so far is thematically those that can only get very high purchase price multiples. And what do I mean by that?
Guest Host / Moderator
So it's not necessarily a certain industry.
Christina Lee
It's not a certain industry. I think certain industries have benefited for example from very high public valuations. For example, everyone talks about AI, everyone talks about data center. We saw a good number of deals come out in the market for M and A last year around data centers, around AI because they were going for such expansive multiples. We saw less, what I call kind of nuts and bolts industrial businesses, they're not bad businesses. They're just not going to go for 15, 18 times. So I think people reserved and held onto their deals maybe to do some add ons, build some growth in, to then sell it for this year.
Eric
So how much of the activity that you think will go on is the result of just pent up, couldn't do anything for so long versus wait. It's a good environment, it's indicative of a good business environment, deal environment, economic environment.
Christina Lee
I think it's a combination. It's probably 50, 50. And the reason I say that is if you think about it, have we had a normal year in terms of M and A?
Guest Host / Moderator
What is normal Normal year.
Christina Lee
Right.
Eric
Wasn't 2025.
Christina Lee
Wasn't 2025. Really wasn't 25 for a normal year. I mean like a steady pace where expectations were met really hasn't in a couple of years. We had supply chain issues.
Guest Host / Moderator
I think we're just, I think we're just done with normal, right?
Christina Lee
Yeah.
Guest Host / Moderator
Post 2020. Yeah, like that's it.
Eric
Normal is done in general, right?
Guest Host / Moderator
Totally.
Christina Lee
You know, so we haven't had quote unquote that normal M and a year. And so if you think about the pent up demand, it just wasn't 2025. It's been since 2020. Really 2022 when there was a break in the public markets. Remember first half of 2022 you saw the public markets break, even the private markets started to break.
Peter Cheer
Right.
Christina Lee
So it's been multiple years and I think that's having this pent up demand grow. And then second we have a falling rate environment. It's better to get debt capital. Right. That's beneficial for these companies and the economy. Granted there's cracks in it, but it's still holding up.
Eric
So what if that doesn't continue though? I think that's one of the big questions. I mean we're seeing investors a little bit enthusiastic as we await a bunch of economic data this week and hopefully for some more clues about what the Fed's going to do this year. But I feel like people keep pulling back their expectations about Fed easings because there are inflationary concerns. If we don't get a lot more in the way of rate cuts, I mean, what do we need to do to kind of keep the market as you describe it now?
Christina Lee
Yeah, I think.
Eric
Or the level of activity.
Christina Lee
Yeah, I think the economy has to hold up. I think one of the things that will spook investors and I think will spook the M and A market is any type of downturn. We haven't had a real downturn since 2009.
Eric
It's kind of amazing, right?
Christina Lee
Covid was too short. There's this massive bounce back.
Guest Host / Moderator
But there was a lot of people got scared then. Yeah, a lot of people in the markets got scared. A lot of people sold. But that didn't count in your view?
Christina Lee
I don't think that counted because I think what was happening in 2020 was Covid was short, was quote unquote short lived. I think you saw kind of March through September really M and A dry up. But then as things started to normalize and there was so much dry powder again to support that M and a market 2021 was like a banner year back half of 2020. 2021's banner year for M and A and private credit.
Guest Host / Moderator
What's the relationship between your world and equity market performance?
Christina Lee
Yeah, I think part of it is on the valuation side. Right. And spurring M and A, the better the equity markets are doing that supports higher purchase price multiples for the private markets as well, which spurs therefore M and A deal flow, which helps us because that's a big driver of demand when there's not enough deals in the market. What happens with private credit is you have a lot more competition. What does that mean? Decreased spreads, increased leverage.
Eric
Yeah, you need to see it all kind of flow through here. Your new fund that you guys launched in October, the Oaktree Direct Lending Evergreen Fund, Institutional Clients completed your first close with about 2.35 billion in committed capital. How much of that has been lent out, deployed at this point?
Christina Lee
Yeah, I think just thinking about that product in general, when you think about an evergreen fund, it's kind of a newer product and direct lending and you're raising money every quarter, it's open end fund. And so from a deployment standpoint. Right. You're always going to be looking to deploy. And one of the things that we found is a growth factor in private credit are these newer types of vehicles. If you think about direct lending, it has been always kind of closed end funds.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host
Yeah.
Christina Lee
I think LPs are asking for evergreen funds. They want someplace to get income to be diversified and a safe pair of hands and consistently deployed. And that's what Evergreen and frankly Oaktree provides.
Eric
Well, good stuff. Like, we were so looking forward to catching up with you.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host
Happy New Year. New Year.
Eric
Good to see you again.
Christina Lee
Happy New Year as well. Thanks for having me.
Eric
We'll see you soon. Christina Lee, Managing Director, Co Portfolio Manager for US Private Debt over at Oaktree.
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Host
Capital this is the Bloomberg businessweek daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
This episode dives into recent geopolitical and economic maneuvers disrupting the global energy landscape, focusing on U.S. actions in Venezuela, the fallout for markets and global power players (notably China), and the wider implications for commodities, supply chains, and financial markets. The show also explores the booming prediction markets industry, trends in metals and crypto, and the outlook for M&A and private credit in 2026.