Bloomberg Businessweek: “Coinbase Posts $667 Million Loss, Revenue Declines 20%”

Date: February 12, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Guests: Monique Malima (Bloomberg News Equities Reporter), Eric Weiner (Bloomberg News Senior Editor), Ed Harrison (Author, Everything Risk newsletter), Stuart Paul (U.S. & Canada Economist, Bloomberg Economics), Steve Moore (Unleash Prosperity, former Trump economic advisor)

Overview

This episode focuses on the turbulent earnings report from Coinbase—highlighting a $667 million loss and a 20% revenue decline—while setting these results against broader industry headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment in the crypto sphere. The discussion broadens to the effect of AI on market volatility, the risks to global economic stability posed by geopolitical conflicts, and the evolving U.S. economic outlook with commentary from economists and policy experts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Coinbase’s Earnings and the State of Crypto (01:32–10:09)

• Coinbase’s 2025 Financial Performance

  • Mixed Results: Despite Coinbase claiming operational and financial strength in 2025, its stock underperformed, dropping 9% that year. (02:27)
  • Main Causes: A crypto rally earlier in 2025 lost steam as prices (e.g., Bitcoin) plunged over 40% from their October highs, reducing trading activity and transaction revenues. (02:53, 04:47)
  • Quote: “2025 was a mixed year for Coinbase...momentum as the Trump administration came in...huge wave of investment...But as we’ve seen crypto prices pull back...we’ve also seen it weigh on their revenue as less people are trading.” — Monique Malima (02:53)

• Balance Sheet Strength & Analyst Outlook

  • Resilience: Coinbase is regarded as better-capitalized than most U.S. crypto exchanges, holding $11.3 billion in cash/equivalents. (03:26)
  • Caution: However, analysts have pulled back estimates, anticipating continued crypto weakness. (03:55)
  • Quote: “Analysts do think that their balance sheet is still solid... But analysts are also expecting that cryptocurrency is going to continue to kind of see a downturn...that’s going to continue to weigh on Coinbase.” — Monique Malima (03:55)

• Analyst Bearishness

  • Wave of Downgrades: At least six analyst firms cut their price targets in February 2026; one called their previous optimism “foolish.” (04:47)
  • Quote: “We had an analyst...say today that they felt that they were foolish for thinking that crypto markets were going to be recovering more quickly.” — Monique Malima (04:47)

• Revenue Diversification

  • Beyond Crypto: Coinbase is exploring prediction markets, equities, and options trading. However, its success remains unproven, and analysts want to see stronger traction, especially in prediction markets. (05:47)

• Market Dynamics: Crypto vs. Stocks

  • Sentiment: Unlike equities, depressed crypto prices usually suppress overall participation, not just shifting trades. (06:48)
  • Quote: “A lot of crypto is sentiment driven...when crypto prices are depressed, that means a lot of people...start pulling out.” — Monique Malima (06:48)

• Operational Pressures

  • Comparative Stability: While peers like Gemini Space Station are slashing jobs and retreating internationally, Coinbase faces less immediate operational pressure, focusing on diversification. (07:31)

• Prediction Markets and Regulation

  • Emerging Risk: Regulatory uncertainty looms large, particularly as prediction markets (often centered on sports) attract scrutiny from regulators like the CFTC. Crypto companies, however, are accustomed to a shifting legislative landscape. (08:13–08:36)
  • Quote: “For people who are in this space...operating...in a bit of an area that hasn’t been fully regulated yet isn’t out of the ordinary for crypto.” — Monique Malima (08:36)

2. Market Volatility, AI Scares, and the 'Everything Risk' (11:44–22:39)

• AI-induced Volatility

  • Sentiment Swings: Markets are jittery as AI disrupts sectors—e.g., logistics stocks tank after a karaoke company touts an AI logistics bot. (12:07–12:41)
  • Quote: “...this roving AI worry that’s just taking out entire industries at once, sort of a sell now and then see what happens later.” — Eric Weiner (12:07)

• Algos & Market Rotation

  • Momentum Trading: Algorithmic sell-offs and risk-averse behavior lift the VIX above 20, signifying heightened fear but not necessarily a structural downturn. (14:08–15:48)

• U.S. Macro Fundamentals

  • Jittery, But Not Broken: Jobless claims are ticking up and layoffs rising, but economic growth remains, and CPI is falling. However, underlying consumer sentiment is weak, and gains are felt unevenly. (16:49–19:18)
  • Quote: “The concern...is that people aren’t spending, people aren’t investing, the individuals are stepping aside and that can bleed into a lot of different industries.” — Eric Weiner (19:19)

• K-Shaped Economy

  • Winners and Losers: Outperformance at the top (e.g., Airbnb exceeds forecasts), but weakened retail sales cast doubt on the strength of consumer-led growth. (20:03–21:19)

• The Crosscurrents of AI

  • Mixed Outcomes: While AI headlines spook some sectors, others (like Applied Materials) rally on AI-driven demand for chips, illustrating a broad yin and yang in market perceptions. (21:19–21:56)

• Conclusion:

  • “The economy might be slowing, but it’s not slowing into anything that should have a sustained negative impact in the near term.” — Ed Harrison (21:56)

3. Global Geopolitical Risk & Economic Consequences (24:12–31:28)

• Bloomberg Economics’ Flashpoint Report

  • Major Flashpoints: The risks of global conflicts—especially a potential China-Taiwan war—are staggering for the world economy. (25:12)

  • Devastating Numbers:

    • Taiwan’s GDP would collapse
    • China: -11%
    • EU: -11%
    • U.S.: -6.6%
    • South Korea: -23%
    • Japan: -14.7% (26:37)

  • Quote: “We’re talking about denting global GDP growth by about 10%.” — Stuart Paul (27:26)

• Conflict Scenarios:

  • Even less severe actions, such as a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, could knock 5% off global growth. The mere presence of economic “mutually assured destruction” deters full conflict, but proxy actions remain likely. (27:39)

• Middle East Oil Risks

  • Despite U.S. progress towards energy independence, Middle East disruptions could still send oil to $108/barrel and crash the world economy due to its 15% share of global production. (29:08–30:21)

• Venezuela’s Limited Role

  • While Venezuela could boost Western Hemisphere energy security, its global impact is minimal compared to Middle East disruptions. (30:45–31:09)

4. Global Alliances, U.S. Trade Policy, and Internal Economic Debates (31:34–44:11)

• Free Trade vs. Protectionism in the Trump Era

  • Moore’s Perspective: While Steve Moore supports Trump’s dealmaking and economic muscle-flexing, he diverges on tariffs, maintaining that the U.S. gains most from free trade. (35:22, 38:10, 40:16)
  • Quote: “There’s no question that when we had the Liberation Day, that really roiled markets and did cause a temporary reduction in economic output.” — Steve Moore (35:22)
  • Quote: “I don’t think there’s any country in the world that has benefited more from free trade than the United States.” (40:16)

• USMCA and NAFTA

  • Moore supports the North American trade bloc and cautions against retaliation that drives allies to China. (37:35, 39:37)

• Domestic Sentiment & Shared Prosperity

  • While top-line indicators are positive, swathes of the country feel left behind, especially in the Rust Belt. Moore acknowledges the disconnect between statistics and lived experience. (42:13–43:03)
  • Quote: “Middle class Americans have a lot of anxiety right now...people aren’t feeling the love...and so that’s a political problem.” — Steve Moore (42:13)

• The Future of Work

  • Moore and Paul note the sweeping, imminent impact of automation and AI on traditional jobs, particularly manufacturing and trucking. (43:03–44:11)

5. Energy Policy and the Future Mix (44:11–46:36)

• Coal’s Future

  • The administration is investing in coal to stave off decline, but even Moore, a pro-market conservative, admits coal’s market position is eroding amid cheaper natural gas and regulatory changes. (45:11)

• Natural Gas & Nuclear

  • The consensus is that natural gas and nuclear are the energy “fuels of the future.” However, nuclear’s true competitiveness without subsidies is debated. (45:25–46:36)
  • Quote: “I think we will see nuclear power becoming more efficient and more productive and competitive without any government subsidies.” — Steve Moore (46:36)

6. Federal Reserve and Monetary Independence (47:01–49:04)

• Kevin Warsh’s Nomination
  • Moore is upbeat about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, citing his monetary experience and belief in a strong U.S. dollar, though Paul cautions about possible increased politicization of the Fed. (47:18, 49:04)
  • Quote: “I am incredibly excited about Kevin Warsh. He will be independent…can’t think of any better...I think he was about the best choice that we could have.” — Steve Moore (47:18, 48:29)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “2025 was a mixed year for Coinbase...momentum as the Trump administration came in...huge wave of investment...But as we’ve seen crypto prices pull back...we’ve also seen it weigh on their revenue as less people are trading.” — Monique Malima (02:53)
• “...this roving AI worry that’s just taking out entire industries at once, sort of a sell now and then see what happens later.” — Eric Weiner (12:07)
• “We’re talking about denting global GDP growth by about 10%.” — Stuart Paul on the effect of a Taiwan conflict (27:26)
• “I don’t think there’s any country in the world that has benefited more from free trade than the United States.” — Steve Moore (40:16)
• “Middle class Americans have a lot of anxiety right now...people aren’t feeling the love...and so that’s a political problem.” — Steve Moore (42:13)

Timestamps by Segment

• Coinbase Earnings & Crypto Industry – 01:32–10:09
• Market Jitters, AI Scares, and Broad Economic Sentiment – 11:44–22:39
• Global Geopolitical & Economic Risk – 24:12–31:28
• Trade Alliances and U.S. Policy – 31:34–44:11
• Coal, Energy Policy, and the Future Mix – 44:11–46:36
• Fed Independence & Politics – 47:01–49:04

Tone and Style

The conversation is pragmatic and data-driven, marked by skepticism toward official optimism, a recognition of undercurrents of risk, and a mix of sharp analysis with acknowledgment of political and global complexity.

This episode is essential listening for anyone wanting a real-time snapshot of where cryptos, global economics, and U.S. policy debates stand in early 2026. It’s a candid blend of financial reporting, market sentiment, and expert outlooks—the latest crossroads of technology, geopolitics, and the American economic experiment.