Bloomberg Businessweek: "Dell Hikes Estimates on Strong AI Demand"

Air Date: October 7, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

Overview

This episode dives into Dell's sharply increased growth projections, fueled by booming demand for AI servers. The hosts explore what this means for Dell’s identity (AI company or not), the broader durability of AI-driven server demand, and competitive positioning. The conversation also touches on the growing economic influence of women (with Erin Harkless Moore of Pivotal Ventures), followed by an in-depth interview with Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott on urban challenges and crime reduction. Investment strategy insights from Eric Clark (Alpha Brands ETF, Acuvest Global Advisors) round off the show.

1. Dell’s Soaring Projections and AI Surge

[01:46–10:16]
Guest: Woo Jin Ho, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Hardware & Networking Analyst

Main Discussion Points

• Dell's Growth Outlook

  • Dell shares rose up to 6% on news the company is doubling sales and profit growth estimates for the next two years, extending high projections through at least fiscal 2030. (01:46)
  • "The company roughly doubling its growth estimates for sales and profit... Demand for AI products will extend those higher projections at least through the 2030 fiscal year." – Tim Stenovec [01:50]
  • Current revenue guidance implies a jump from $20 billion in fiscal 2026 to about $45 billion by 2030.

• Is Dell an AI Company?

  • Carol Massar questions Dell's AI credentials; Woo Jin Ho settles it: “No.” [02:34]
  • "At the end of the day, they are a box maker that takes Nvidia chips and assembles everything together in a box.” – Woo Jin Ho [02:40]
  • Key players are the chipmakers (Nvidia, Broadcom) “selling picks and shovels; Dell is selling the cart.” – Woo Jin Ho [07:28]

• AI Server Demand

  • Growth in AI servers guiding Dell’s outlook: 20–25% in AI server business, “phenomenal growth considering how much it's grown over the past couple of years.” – Woo Jin Ho [02:54]
  • Durability of server revenue is strong, with new data centers appearing frequently, many outside traditional hyperscalers.

• Dell’s Sales Strength

  • Michael Dell is “probably one of the best salespeople out there from an IT hardware standpoint... exposed to every type of server deal globally, ex-China of course.” – Woo Jin Ho [04:46]
  • Major deals span 'neo clouds' and sovereign AI, including the high-profile TikTok deal.

• Competitive Landscape

  • Super Micro (“Supermicro”) is Dell’s top competitor, on pace for $33 billion in revenue, with about 70% from AI server sales. [05:29]
  • “White box” vendors like Foxconn and Quanta are seen as less of a threat due to time-to-market advantages and custom builds.

• Profitability Reality

  • AI servers only contribute about 5% to Dell’s operating profit—similar to selling PCs.
  • Dell’s margin structure differs from chipmakers with higher gross margins; Dell “is only selling the cart.” [07:47]

• Valuation and Investor Takeaways

  • Stock move justified by higher-than-expected AI server revenue and 15%+ EPS growth guidance.
  • “If they're able to execute on their margin targets... there are going to be a lot of satisfied investors.” – Woo Jin Ho [07:53]

Notable Quotes

• “They're very early on that S curve… The demand cycle is still fairly early.” – Woo Jin Ho [04:00]
• “AI servers only generate about 5% for Dell operation... It's almost comparable to selling a PC.” – Woo Jin Ho [07:00]

2. The Increasing Economic Power of Women

[12:58–20:11]
Guest: Erin Harkless Moore, VP & Managing Director, Pivotal Ventures

Main Discussion Points

• Women Gaining Economic Power

  • By 2030, women are expected to control $34 trillion, or 38% of investable assets, nearly double from a decade prior. [12:58]
  • “Money talks. It gives you a seat at the table, whatever table that may be.” – Carol Massar [16:04]

• Pivotal Ventures' Mission

  • Founded by Melinda French Gates, focused on advancing social progress through investment—particularly in women-led funds, health, and caregiving. [13:59]
  • “She wanted women to be in a position to make decisions, control resources and capital...” – Erin Harkless Moore [13:59]

• Power Through Investing

  • “Women's power is... women in a position to make decisions.” – Erin Harkless Moore [15:10]
  • Numbers of women in VC firm partner roles have risen from 9% to 18% in the last decade, but room for improvement remains.

• Caregiving as Economic Opportunity

  • Care economy estimated at $648 billion (childcare, eldercare, health, aging-in-place solutions).
  • “We've ignored caregiving for too long. It's the most important work... Everyone’s a caregiver at some point.” – Erin Harkless Moore [17:38]

• Workplace Innovation Challenge

  • Pivotal and Aspen Institute launched a $60 million grant competition for workplace innovations affecting women. [18:48]

• Advice for Women

  • “Ask questions. Not being satisfied with the status quo... Whether it’s with your personal 401k, or institutional investing, take that tact as well.” – Erin Harkless Moore [19:40]

3. Baltimore’s Crime Turnaround and Challenges

[22:35–33:00]
Guest: Mayor Brandon Scott (Baltimore)

Main Discussion Points

• Impact of Federal Shutdown

  • 12,000 Baltimore residents work for the federal government; economic anxiety is high amongst them. [23:28]

• Crime and Public Safety

  • Baltimore identified as the fourth most dangerous US city this summer, but significant change noted: “We have the fewest amount of homicides through any October 7th on record today. That is a big change.” – Mayor Brandon Scott [24:27]
  • Homicides down 30% from the previous year, following a “comprehensive violence prevention plan” started in 2021.

• Baltimore’s Comprehensive Plan

  • Identify potential victims/perpetrators of gun violence and focus interventions; offer paths to change or apply law enforcement as needed.
  • Expanded investment in community violence intervention, with former offenders now mediators:
    • “They were the problem and now they're part of the solution.” – Mayor Brandon Scott [25:54]

• Gun Trafficking & Law Enforcement

  • Focus on gun traffickers, working with local and federal partners.
  • Rejects National Guard federal intervention: “No. We've been very clear about that.” [26:55]
    • Previous National Guard deployments (2015) “didn’t help; it was one of the most violent years ever.” [28:56]

• Federal Funding Cuts

  • Program cuts (e.g., for youth assistance and violence intervention) after federal grants reduced; urges restoration of funding over troop deployments. [27:36]

• Economic Development

  • $4 billion invested in the city; $7 billion coming to downtown.
  • Major projects: T. Rowe Price, Under Armour headquarters, focus on permitting reforms, and tech/life sciences sector growth. [32:05]

• Political Perspective

  • “They have to let the folks that are closest to the problem be out front and part of the solution. Meaning they need to listen to mayors.” – Mayor Brandon Scott [29:59]
  • Mayor Scott intends to serve as long as Baltimore residents want (“this is my dream job as a child”). [31:33]

Notable Quotes

• “We have a long way to go. But... the conversation around Baltimore and violence has shifted significantly.” – Mayor Brandon Scott [24:27]
• “We know how to reduce violence in Baltimore... We have reduced violence to its lowest levels ever recorded on record.” – Mayor Brandon Scott [26:57]

4. Navigating Markets, Brands, and Consumer Resilience

[36:04–44:07]
Guest: Eric Clark, Chief Investment Officer, Acuvest Global Advisors

Main Discussion Points

• Portfolio Strategy

  • Main holdings: Uber, Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, TJX, Apple.
  • Increased turnover lately due to unique post-pandemic consumer trends and inflation.

• Consumer Shift: ‘Wants vs. Needs’ Investments

  • Staples like Walmart, TJX, Costco seen as essentials.
  • “Netflix and Spotify are pretty needs oriented. Nobody's going to get rid of those in an economic slowdown... If anything, you'll transfer to the ad tier.” – Eric Clark [39:25]
  • Services economy is “where the demand is; booking is still interesting.”

• Stock Moves & Opportunities

  • Lululemon (down 55%) and Chipotle seen as possible buys after steep declines; waiting for better entry points.
  • “The Athleisure story is still important. Nike I think is a little interesting—a slow but steady recovery.” – Eric Clark [41:40]

• Sector Rotations

  • Recently moved out of Coca-Cola, Progressive Insurance (defensive plays); overweighting cyclicals and market leaders.

• AI and Digital Advertising

  • Very bullish on Applovin despite regulatory volatility:
    • “Not a cheap stock but growing really well, generating a massive amount of free cash flow… expanding outside of video gaming with this AI algorithm.” – Eric Clark [43:28]

Notable/Memorable Moments and Quotes

• Woo Jin Ho, on Dell’s identity:
  “Dell is only selling the cart.” [07:28]

• Erin Harkless Moore, on women’s financial empowerment:
  “Money talks. It gives you a seat at the table, whatever table that may be.” – paraphrased by Carol Massar [16:04]

• Mayor Brandon Scott, on community change:
  “They were the problem and now they're part of the solution.” [25:54]

• Eric Clark, on brand investing:
  “Netflix and Spotify are pretty needs oriented. Nobody's going to get rid of those in an economic slowdown...” [39:25]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Dell and AI Servers / Woo Jin Ho: [01:46–10:16]
• Women’s Investment Power / Erin Harkless Moore: [12:58–20:11]
• Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott Interview: [22:35–33:00]
• Investment Strategies / Eric Clark: [36:04–44:07]

This summary captures the episode’s essential insights, tone, and key discussions—with quotes and timestamps for easy navigation, giving non-listeners a thorough understanding of the episode’s substance and energy.