Dimon’s ‘Cockroach’ Fear Revives Threat of Growing Credit Cracks

Summary

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Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Dimon’s ‘Cockroach’ Fear Revives Threat of Growing Credit Cracks
Date: October 14, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec

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Overview

This episode dives into the outlook for the global banking sector amid strong earnings reports, with particular focus on Jamie Dimon's warnings about lurking credit risks at JPMorgan. The conversation ranges from the state of large U.S. banks and market expectations, to semiconductor sector developments, shifting dynamics in international trade, and BlackRock’s evolving business mix. Guest analysts and reporters provide sharp insight into both the short-term numbers and the longer-term strategic shifts shaping finance and global commerce.

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Main Segments & Key Insights

1. Big Bank Earnings & Dimon's “Cockroach” Warning

(Starts ~01:43)

Discussion Highlights:

• Strong Quarter for Banks Overall: The KBW bank index up 2.3%, with 22 out of 24 banks rising—yet major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs underperformed despite beating expectations ([01:43], Tim Stenovec & Matt Miller).
• Earnings vs. Stock Reactions:
  • “JP Morgan beats expectations on every level...Analysts can’t believe how well they did and yet the stocks sell off.” ([02:15], Matt Miller)
  • Possible reasons: high expectations built into share price, and desire from bullish investors for even more upside.
• JPMorgan’s Business Fundamentals:
  • Continued strong execution and leading M&A advisory revenues.
  • Launching new AI efficiency programs (details awaited).
• Goldman Sachs: Strong overall, but missed on equities trading ([03:00], Alison Williams).

Analyst Insights:

• Why Do Analysts Underestimate Earnings?
  • Banks and analysts both guide conservatively, particularly in capital markets which are volatile and unpredictable.
  • Upside surprises often come late in quarters, making forecasts tough. ([04:34], Srinatarajan; [05:11], Alison Williams)
• Dimon’s “Cockroach” Analogy:
  • “I shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, probably more, you know, and so everyone should be forewarned on this one.” ([05:54], Jamie Dimon on JPM's call; clip via Ender Curran).
  • Analysts interpret Dimon's comments as a warning that isolated credit issues can foreshadow broader risks: “When enough of them start popping up, that becomes a concern.” ([06:15], Bloomberg Analyst)
  • Specific reference to stress in credit markets (private credit BDC discounts), concerns about possible domino effects, and risk that recovery rates will be weaker in the next downturn.
    • “Eventually the cycle turns and when it does… you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories.” ([07:45], Analyst paraphrasing Dimon)

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2. Bank Execution & Outlook for Wells Fargo, Citi, BofA

(Starts ~08:01)

Wells Fargo

• Big Outperformer: “Wells Fargo now up 8.2% for the day—its best day since election night...” ([10:09], Analyst)
• Return on Tangible Equity Target Raised: From 15% to up to 17–18% ([08:31], Srinatarajan).
  • Progress shown in lifting asset cap, substantial opportunities in consumer unit, leveraging technology for productivity.

Citigroup

• On “2/3 of the way” through transformation; Banamex divestiture in progress ([09:17], Alison Williams).

Bank of America Preview

• “It is important for Bank of America to approach that investor day with a mindset of providing targets, aspirational targets for the market. Otherwise, the stock will continue to languish.” ([10:56], Analyst)

Bank Valuation Metrics

• Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) and Price/Book Ratio discussed as preferred valuation metrics for banks.
  • Banks use balance sheet to generate returns, so price/book is favored, especially in downturns.
  • “JP Morgan management also talking about…not liking to buy shares back at this level...from an equity investor standpoint, that’s not helpful either.” ([13:00], Srinatarajan)

Analyst Frustration with Consensus Estimates

• “If I was lowballing it for the last nine out of ten quarters, I would just add 20%…” ([13:47], Matt Miller, joking about analyst humility)

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3. Semiconductor Spotlight: AMD, Oracle, and the Battle with Nvidia

(Starts ~16:55)

AMD's Rising Profile

• AMD announced Oracle will deploy a large batch of forthcoming Mi450 chips in its data centers next year, reinforcing AMD’s position as a viable rival to Nvidia ([17:54], Carol Massar & Ian King).
  • “These chips don’t actually exist yet…It’s a confirmation that AMD has a seat at the table here.” ([17:54], Ian King)
• Oracle is aggressively building out cloud services; partnership gives AMD crucial exposure.

Competitive Landscape

• AMD vs. Nvidia: AMD currently holds <2% of market for AI accelerators versus Nvidia’s dominance ([19:49], Ian King).
  • “2% is better than anybody else…but is it sustainable? AMD has to evolve from there…create a set of reasons for people to make those bets.” ([19:49], Ian King)
• Significance of Oracle Deal: 50,000 AMD chips in data centers starting Q3 2026 is “not a small number,” but dwarfed by Nvidia’s shipments ([22:18], Ian King).
• Chip Supply Chains: AMD has delivered on-time, up to third or fourth generation, earning credibility, in contrast to Intel's recent woes ([21:05], Ian King).

Industry Take

• “Broadcom is in that conversation. Nvidia is the absolute beneficiary…AMD is trying to get in there and is showing the best potential…” ([24:47], Ian King)

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4. Global Trade Dynamics: U.S.–China & the Redrawing of Commerce

(Starts ~27:53)

U.S.–China: Still the World’s Key Economic Relationship

• “They are of course completely interlocked… the trade tensions between them do spill over to everybody caught in the middle…” ([28:26], Ender Curran)
• Key Vulnerability: U.S. dependence on China for rare earths, crucial for industrial/military supply chain.
  • “China is the one…taking on the refining risk, [the] environmental risk and the costs associated, at a scale that no other country is doing.” ([30:20], Ender Curran)
  • Environmental and economic realities make it tough for U.S. or others to catch up in refining.

Diversification of Trade

• Countries worldwide are accelerating trade deals to diversify away from U.S.–China dependence (highlighting EU-Indonesia, Mercosur, UAE-Switzerland-New Zealand pacts) ([33:19], Ender Curran).
  • “We are redrawing the map of international trade. We're going to see a lot more bilateral trade agreements….” —Citing UC Davis’s Ina Simonovska ([32:44], Tim Stenovec)
• Winners and Losers:
  • Larger countries fare better in bilateral negotiations; smaller countries may have to accept tougher terms as global rules-based systems erode.

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5. Strong Private Market Growth & Tech Focus at BlackRock

(Starts ~39:57)

BlackRock's Q3 Success Story

• Pulled in $205B of new client money in Q3—stock up 3.5%.

• Three pillars of growth:

  • Strong ETF inflows
  • Growing private/alternative assets exposure
  • Expansion of technology services (Aladdin platform) ([41:13], Kathy Seifert)

• Private markets and tech services revenue now exceed that from ETFs and fixed income ([42:16], Carol Massar):

  “You have the combination of those two things—really widens the competitive edge…around BlackRock.” ([44:56], Kathy Seifert)

• Private market/alt asset fees up 136% YoY through Q3—partly due to acquisitions, but alts are a big part of BlackRock’s strategy to diversify away from commoditized, fee-decaying ETF business ([43:20], Kathy Seifert).

• On crypto: “BlackRock brought in more crypto assets than some of its competitors brought in firmwide in this quarter.” ([44:20], Kathy Seifert)

• Looking ahead: Succession at BlackRock and continued shift in asset mix are closely watched ([46:30], Kathy Seifert).

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Notable Quotes

• Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan):

  • “When you see one cockroach, probably more, you know, and so we, we should, everyone should be forewarned on this one.” ([05:54])

• Analyst on Dimon’s macro warning:

  • “Eventually the cycle turns and when it does…you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories.” ([07:45])

• Ian King (on AMD/Nvidia):

  • “2% is better than anybody else, though, and is still several billion dollars, which is very good for, for AMD and has certainly buoyed its fortunes. But is 2% really, you know, a sustainable market presence? The answer is probably not.” ([19:49])

• Ender Curran (on US–China rare earths):

  • “China is the one digging [rare earths] out of the ground…taking on the refining risk, environmental risk and costs…at a scale that no other country is doing.” ([30:20])

• Kathy Seifert (on BlackRock’s strength):

  • “BlackRock laid out a strategy of basically having three pillars of growth…we saw it hitting on all of those cylinders.” ([41:13])

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Timestamps by Topic

• Bank Earnings & Dimon: 01:43 – ~14:10
• Semiconductor/AMD & Oracle: 16:55 – 25:22
• Trade/US–China/Rare Earths: 27:53 – 36:32
• BlackRock Earnings/ETFs/Alts: 39:57 – 46:49

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Tone, Style, & Closing Thoughts

The conversation is lively and often candid, with hosts and analysts challenging each other on questions of bank valuation, market expectations, and global risk. Dimon's warning stands out as a sober moment amid strong headline numbers. The panel consistently weighs short-term results against longer-term strategic shifts, reminding listeners that financial and macro trends are deeply interconnected.

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For deeper insight, full interviews with key analysts and reporters—including Srinatarajan, Alison Williams, Ian King, Ender Curran, and Kathy Seifert—are available in this podcast episode.

Transcript

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[Tim Stenovec]

One group that has done really well today as a whole. We're talking about big banks or banks overall, the KBW bank index folks, up 2.3%. 22 of the 24 names are higher. In today's session we've had two big ones lower.

[Matt Miller]

Two of the big ones are lower. Two of the biggest names on the entire index are lower.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, this is what's interesting because J.P. morgan Gold, Goldman, Wells, Citi all reporting. J.P. morgan and Goldman selling off. Right? Those are the two names you're talking about. And Wells and Citi, Matt, are yelling.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

In a big way.

[Matt Miller]

I mean, and you get headlines like JP Morgan beats expectations on every level. Goldman Sachs knocks the COVID off the ball. Analysts can't believe how well they did and yet the stocks sell off.

[Tim Stenovec]

But remember, something like JP Morgan has had quite a run this year. So you know, expectations and reality perhaps. Let's see what our experts have to say. Bloomberg News chief Wall street correspondent Srinatarajan's here in studio along with Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for global investment banks and asset managers Alison Williams as I said both in studio. All right, guys, let's start with J.P. morgan because I feel like that's the bank that we want to always hear from. Alison, let me start with you. What do we need to know about the numbers in J.P. morgan's business? Because as Matt says, sometimes the headlines.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

Look darn good and the quarter was darn good. It's just that I think there are some bullish investors out there that wanted more and if you did, you know, so on today, they're underperforming. But if you looked at year to date, if you look at their valuation, if you look at their year to returns, I'm sorry, you look at their profitability, all very, very good executing. Well, think that, you know, maybe some people just wanted some more there. Goldman Sachs also strong quarter. They did miss on equities trading. So, you know, these numbers are hard to predict. But I think, you know, most people, including myself, you know, if you had seen sort of that that upside would give you sort of further confidence in the momentum going into the next quarter. But the M and A advisory business, huge outperformance there. We think they probably outperformed most in the quarter. They're the lead in that revenue. They announced this AI program. There's details, you know, we're going to have to wait till January for details, but that signals that efficiency is going to get better. You know, contrast, you know, two companies that are really performing very well to two companies that are, I think have a lot of Runway ahead of them and that's Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

[Matt Miller]

Can I just ask before we get to Sri, because I've already asked him like 10 times today, why do the analysts consistently underestimate what these banks are doing? And it can't just be to get on the good side of management. Right. When I see this morning before any earnings came out, I saw stories about which bank was going to beat estimates. So when I see bank expected to top estimates, I wonder why analysts don't add more to the estimates. What's what, what is this game all about?

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

Well, first of all, trading and when it's capital markets revenue that really is the source of the upside, that is very tough. And banks are not going to guide you. Right? You know, they don't really have an incentive to guide your hand because by the way, like the last couple of days of the quarter could be horrible or you don't know what's going to happen. And so I think banks are going to tend to guide conservatively. Analysts are going to tend to Be conservative. Right. Because that, and by the way, like, that just is not something that people bake into the run rate. So as I said, you know, we're positive about the momentum in trading.

[Kathy Seifert]

Yeah.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

The asset levels, etc. But I think if you're, you know, forming estimates, you are going to tend to be conservative and that's why you can get upside, especially if the strength comes at the end of the quarter. It's just hard for the estimates to catch up.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, totally get it. All right, so we care about JP Morgan's results. We also obsess over everything that Jamie Dimon has to say. He never disappoints with something that is highly quotable. In this case, it was when he was talking about a cockroach. Check it out.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

You should assume that ever something happens.

[Ender Curran]

We scour all process all procedures, all underwriting, all everything. And you know, we think we're okay and other stuff. But I, my, my antenna goes up.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

With things like that happen.

[Ender Curran]

I shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, probably more, you know, and so we, we should, everyone should be forewarned on this one.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

All right.

[Tim Stenovec]

That, of course, was Jamie Dimon earlier today on JPM's early earnings call. Should we come on in on this? Because you're reporting on the quarter and you know, most importantly, what Jamie Dimon has to say about the macro.

[Bloomberg Analyst/Commentator]

So I, again, Jamie Dimon has been running the biggest US bank, which is, which has a bigger market cap today than its three closest rivals combined. He's been doing that for nearly 20 years. And he didn't get there and he didn't stay there. Just on the back of sitting on his laurels. Right. He's paid to look around the corners and he's right to point out that the underlying numbers might be great. They might be marching toward another record revenue year. But when you see some of these problems, you initially try and dismiss some of them as idiosyncratic. But if enough of them start popping up, that becomes a concern. So that's why when diamond says my antenna goes up when things like that happen, we pay attention. Especially because in the last few days, we've been seeing some action in certain corners of the credit market where it does appear that there is some fear seeping into the markets. Diamond specifically flicked at the publicly traded BDCs that hold a lot of these private credit investments. And if you look at the discount to the net asset value that they're going at, it makes you worry about what's happening with Some of the other non traded vehicles. Will there be mass redemptions and will there be domino effects off of that? And Dimon also points out that he feels like they're feeling very good about everything. That if you look at their numbers, you will not see any cause for stress, dismay, concern. But diamond is right in saying eventually the cycle turns and when it does, he thinks that I suspect when there's a downturn, his words, you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories. And that's an important one to keep in mind because what he's saying is your recovery rates might not be as great as you imagined and that will impact the funds and that'll impact the investors in those firms.

[Matt Miller]

I want to ask about Wells Fargo. I'm so thankful that Bloomberg Radio has such a great program in the mornings. Nathan Hager and Karen Moscow were talking to you, Alison, before I even got to work yet. And I get here pretty early and you were saying this is really going to be the news of the day. And it has been the outperformer of the day because.

[Tim Stenovec]

Can I just say finally.

[Matt Miller]

Well, because long in coming. So what, so what's the story with Wells Fargo? They raised their return on tangible equity.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

So, so the key metric for banks return on tangible common equity valuations, you know, price to book is, is how a lot of investors value these banks. It's based on the return on capital. And you know, Charlie Sheriff had said years ago, we're going to put 15 out there as a target. We'll revisit it at some point. They're running at 15 year to date. They up that target to 17 to 8.18%. The asset cap is lifted. They showed a lot of progress that they've made, but they also showed some opportunity. And here's what I think is interesting. So one of the biggest areas of opportunity is the consumer unit. When we had Lori Beer from J.P. morgan, the CIO of J.P. morgan, talk about where she sees big opportunities, she actually talked about this at J.P. morgan's Investor Day. Also the consumer unit. Also like a lot of the, a lot of what you talked about in terms of how technology was going to aid the bank was in the, it was productivity in the consumer unit. So we're hearing that from Wells Fargo. So that really gives me confidence that this is a number that they can shoot to. Citigroup, by the way, I think, you know, they're also kind of showing the path, right? So Citigroup talking about the fact that they are sort of 2/3 the way there with their transformation. And we have Banamax coming. You know, it's pushed out a little bit, but I think showing you the path that, you know, could that be Citigroup again, talk about an even longer time. But could, could, could Jane Fraser finally be the one to get it done?

[Bloomberg Analyst/Commentator]

And I will point out, like, with Wells Fargo now up, what, 8.2% for the day, it's their best day since. Since election night, since Trump came back to power. This could be Wells Fargo's best day since then. So that is the power of putting a target out there. And I point that out again only because in a couple of weeks, you will have bank of America with their investor day, their first Investor Day in 15 years. It has also been the worst performing big bank stock this year, up only, what, 14%? 14% and change. It is important for bank of America to approach that investor day with a mindset of providing targets, aspirational targets for the market. Instead of wanting to go out there, we're trying to explain to investors and analysts what it is that they do, because I think investors will tell you they have a good understanding. What they want is better targets, and what they want is them achieving those targets. Otherwise, the stock will continue to languish.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right, I do want to mention a headline crossing. We are continuing to monitor President Trump there at the White House. He is talking also about Russia and President Putin, saying President Putin does not want to end the war and then going on to say that the Russian economy is going to collapse. So that is certainly another one of the big geopolitical events and actions that we've been keeping and something that the President has been trying to bring an end to and talked about that on the campaign trail. But again, President Putin doesn't want to end the war. That is the view from President Trump at the White House. I knew you had one last question you wanted to.

[Matt Miller]

Yeah, I wanted to ask Alison about the best way to value these companies. I was talking with SRI about this on Bloomberg TV earlier, and David George from Baird also was saying, like, look, JP Morgan can be a fantastic company, and it is, but the stock is just too expensive, which is why he doesn't have a buy rating on those shares. And then SRI and I were looking through the price to book. What is the best way? How do the best bank investors look at valuations that. That makes the most sense for banks? Because I think it's a little different than other equities.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

It is different because. So if you think about banks, right versus other kinds of companies. They use their balance sheet to generate profits. And so that's why return on tangible common equity is a key metric, right, because the more profitability that you can generate using your balance sheet, the more you're willing to pay. So that's a little bit different than P E. You all notice that price to book is really favored in downturns. It's a place where people look for, you know, in terms of, you know, one times price. A book is sort of, if you, if you liquidate the bank, what can I get for this versus the ongoing returns? And that's why you have companies like Citigroup trading below tangible book or below book, which obviously they've made a lot of progress since then. But for a long time, you know.

[Matt Miller]

The bank was trading at like 20% book value.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

Well, well. And the European banks, right, because they're, they're not earning their cost of capital. So basically you're eroding value over time. So that's sort of the opposite. And so I think, you know, those are kind of like two, two different ways to think about it. By the way, JP Morgan management also talking about their not liking to buy shares back at this level. I heard that, you know, they're pretty daring that they're willing to call that out. But from an equity investor standpoint, that's not really helpful either.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, 22nd street, what do we have? B of A and Morgan Stanley tomorrow. Just quickly, what you're watching out for.

[Bloomberg Analyst/Commentator]

We'll be Morgan Stanley tomorrow again. We have analysts expectations set out there, so we're hoping they'll go and beat them. But which brings us back full circle to Matt's original point. Like, I don't know what he wants analysts to do. Should they apply a humility premium to when executives guide?

[Matt Miller]

If I were, if I estimating someone's earnings, I would try and get it right. And if I got it, if I was lowballing it for the last nine out of ten quarters, I would just add 20% doing it based of how.

[Bloomberg Analyst/Commentator]

The executives are guiding you. What do you want to check?

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, kids, take this outside, okay? All right. We're going to continue this conversation. We will here at Bloomberg as we continue the bank earnings throughout the rest of this week.

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[Tim Stenovec]

Yes indeed, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Continuing on this Tuesday, Carol Massar, Tim is off Isabel Lee in the house and one of the names that we've been keeping a watch on today is AMD at its highs today up as much as almost 4%, I should say, finishing the day with a gain of about 8, 10 of a percent. This after saying Oracle will deploy a large batch of its forthcoming M14 50 chips next year. I hope I'm saying it right, but if not, I'm going to check in with Ian King who will set the record straight. The news coming about one week after AMD inked a chip deal with OpenAI that triggered an explosive rally in AMD shares. That stock on October6, rallying almost 40% intraday that day. AMD by the way, up around 80% or so year to date. So let's get the latest on his reporting and what AMD and Oracle are up to. Bloomberg News U.S. semi semiconductor reporter Ian King with us from our San Francisco news bureau. Ian, good to have you here with Isabel and me. Tell us about this deal, what exactly it's all about.

[Ian King]

Yeah, I mean the first thing to point out is that these chips don't actually exist yet. This is a planned update of the product line. Mi450 is what they're called. And these are going to be coming out sort of this time next year from amd. So the way to look at this is, is this an affirmation that, from Oracle to amd, that, hey, you've got, you guys have got a big role to play in our data centers going forward and this kind of adds on to that OpenAI agreement that you already spoken about. So it's a future based thing, but it's a very, it's a confirmation that AMD has a seat at the table here.

[Carol Massar]

So what factors make Oracle an attractive partner for AMD and how does this, just this collaboration fit with a broader trend of cloud providers securing their own AI infrastructure?

[Ian King]

Yeah, I mean, if you're going to ask me to unravel the spaghetti of connections between them all, I'm afraid you're talking to the wrong person. But let's just, I mean, I think the best way to look at that is to say that Oracle is obviously being enormously aggressive, spending very heavily, trying to push itself, trying again to get a seat at the table here to be a cloud service provider along with the scale that perhaps rivals somebody like Amazon or, or a Google. It's clearly not there yet, but it sees a future in deploying this technology and is making a big bet to sort of get there. So naturally, if you're wanting to provide components into that market, having, you know, some exposure to Oracle, being one of their key suppliers is a good move.

[Tim Stenovec]

That's what I was wondering. I Always think about this. You know, who gets more out of this deal? Is it equal or is it. I love what you said about Oracle being very aggressive, and we've certainly seen Oracle be very aggressive, I feel like, over the last couple of months. But is this more a thing about amd, more about Oracle or both?

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Ian?

[Ian King]

Yeah, I mean, the recent story has, I would say, you know, obviously there are these big buyers of the chips and we have to see those chip orders made and those purchases go ahead and that turn into revenue. But really, AMD, you know, just for perspective, has less than 2% of the market for accelerators. Guess who has the rest? Nvidia, obviously. Right. So 2% is better than anybody else, though, and is still several billion dollars, which is very good for, for AMD and has certainly buoyed its fortunes. But is 2% really, you know, a sustainable market presence? The answer is probably not. AMD obviously has to evolve from there has to get more and more confidence from these big buyers who, frankly, you know, you're not going to get fired for buying an Nvidia system right now. If you're a purchase manager because everybody else is, why should you take a risk on amd? So it's very much up to AMD to sort of create a set of reasons for people to make those bets. And it looks like that's happening.

[Carol Massar]

And we know that deployment is set to begin next year. Expansion, 20, 27 and beyond. Are we expecting any kind of challenges on the part of AMD to ensure maybe timely delivery or managing the supply chain?

[Ian King]

Yeah, I mean, chips are difficult, right? You put billions of transistors on a very tiny piece of silicon and something can and will go wrong. But it has to be said in AMD's favor. They have said, hey, we'll have a product ready and it's been ready on time. Then we'll have another one ready and it'll be better. And that's come on time. So this isn't the first ever entree for them into this market. This is the third or fourth generation of their chips and they have all got better. They all have been delivered on time, which is obviously gaining credibility for that company and that company's presence. So, yes, a lot can go wrong and does go wrong for chips, but not recently for amd. If you want to look at things going wrong, unfortunately, that's been an intel story, not an AMD story recently.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, one of the things, Ian, we were just talking with Kate, Matt over on the TV side, and when I mentioned amd, as kind of one of the gainers in stocks I was looking at and that, that Oracle will put 50,000 of the semiconductors in data center computers starting in the third quarter of 2026. Matt's like, is that even a lot? And so I'm looking at your story where you say in the second quarter AMD shipped about 10000 AI processors. It seems like 50,000 is a lot. Is it though?

[Ian King]

It really depends where we are at that particular point. In AMD's ideal world, it won't be a huge part of their, of their shipments. And again, we don't exactly know how quickly those shipments will be made, but it is significant. This is a major player and that is not a small number. It's not the kind of millions or hundreds of thousands that obviously Nvidia ships, but it is a significant amount.

[Carol Massar]

How does this affect Nvidia, Nvidia's current dominance in processors? I think Nvidia is still king. Are you expecting this to take into the market share or eat into the market share when it comes to AMD taking to scale production?

[Ian King]

Yeah. I mean if you believe in video and if you believe everybody else, we're on a, you know, a rocket to the moon, right? That everything is going up, the market is growing at an almost exponential rate and there's room for everybody. So, you know, growth for amd, even rapid growth for AMD doesn't necessarily take away from what Nvidia is achieving. But can we really believe that? Has there ever been a market that's gone up like this forever? And the answer is obviously not. And so at a certain point can AMD establish a sustainable presence and create what is frankly at this point the only likely sort of viable competitor to Nvidia and then perhaps move on from there and actually begin to take market share away from it in a meaningful way that is definitely in the TBD to agree right now, you know, 1.9%, whatever market share they're at versus, you know, 98 plus market share. Percent. That's, that's a long way to go before anybody needs to get worried.

[Tim Stenovec]

Yeah, it's, it's a huge gap. Hey, one of the things I wanted to ask you Ian, before we go because I was thinking about yesterday, that open air Broadcom deal and you know, it just cent shares of Broadcom rocketing. But I also looked at the sox. It made me look at, you know, every name I think was, was higher yesterday or almost every one, same thing today. A lot of names we've seen actually today was a little bit of a different trade, but it just made me look at the Sox, which is up 32% year to date. It's up about 75% from mid April. It I mean, does it make sense that every name is higher considering the spend and what is going on?

[Ian King]

Yes and no. I mean there's a lot goes into a data center. There are a lot of analog chips, a lot of power converters, a lot of the basic components that are needed to support these, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of computers. I'm talking about an individual computer. So yes and no. But ultimately the real winners here are it's just a handful of companies and we've been talking about them. Broadcom is is in that conversation. Nvidia is the absolute beneficiary of this already and AMD is trying to get in there and is showing the best potential to actually get in there and be a presence.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, yeah, and certainly when we were talking about in a big way today. Ian, thank you so much. Appreciate your reporting. Finding some time once again for US Bloomberg News, US Semiconductor reporter Ian King out there on the West Coast.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Tim Stenovec]

Well, even so, the world is kind of moving on and we're seeing the new contour tours of global commerce taking off amid these global tariffs. Let's see what Ender Curran has to say and what it means in terms of the global macro environment. He is Bloomberg News Global Economy Reporter. He joins us from our Bloomberg News Washington, D.C. bureau. And a good to have you here. First off, we do see these Wall street swings on what's coming out between us and China. Why is this still just remind everybody, why is this still the most important global economic relationship in the world or is it starting to kind of change a little bit?

[Ender Curran]

Well, they are the two world's biggest economies. They are of course completely interlocked with each other. China is the world's biggest manufacturer, but of course America is their biggest customer. It's the biggest consumer market in the world. So obviously the trade tensions between them do spill over to everybody kind of caught in the middle of that in terms of supply chains. And that's we're kind of seeing some reaction or some response now to the rest of the world. And even if your starting point is that yes, we'll always have to do business with America because the consumer is so powerful there, trading partners are kicking tires. And hang on a sec, who else can I do business with? How else can I diversify my markets? China's looking around, say, buying more agricultural produce from South America, as we know, but also its exports are going gangbusters to parts of the world other than America. And then those other countries in the middle are saying, you know, who else can we start doing more trade deals with? They're accelerating trade negotiations, they're accelerating ways of doing business with each other, looking for new markets. So it's very early stages but that US China trade war is starting to poke some change global trade.

[Matt Miller]

You know, I mean, I think the question is the question that J.D. vance probably doesn't have an answer to. Can China be cut off from US Trade longer than we can stay solvent? Because the rare earth minerals that they have we cannot get in size from anywhere else and we're not going to be able to process them here to refine them here anytime soon. So, you know, Meredith Whitney in a note on Sunday said, aside from the massive dependence on the US Industrial complex complex for these rare earth metals and magnets, the US military is 100% dependent on them and nearly depleted of its reserves. So, I mean, don't we need them more than they need us right now?

[Ender Curran]

Yeah, I think we're all at a point now where we are fully aware that if there is a vulnerability in the hawkish trade sans that the US Is taking on China, it's on rare earth supplies. China is the one digging him out of the ground. China is the one that's taking on the refining risk there, the environmental risk and the costs associated with it at a scale that no other country is doing. And that's why America and everybody else is so reliant on China and getting those minerals out here. And that's why China, of course, it's well aware of its leverage. It's floated those export controls that it did last week or the week before that of course sent shockwaves not just through the U.S. but the rest of the world too. And China is making clear that it's in control of these now. This is a policy error, though. If you go back maybe 15 years ago, there was a big, there was a discussion around rare earth supply. At that time there were other options on the table. It's not just China that has these minerals. Other countries could have put money into the ground and put the money into the resources and the facilities needed to extract. These are some companies in the US that are talking about or trying to get off the ground at the moment in doing this. But the point is we're at a stage where China has a grip and a lock on the system to the point where everybody else is years behind. It will take a long time.

[Matt Miller]

Well, it's not just getting them out of the ground. And I mean, I Talked to industrial CEOs who do business globally and have told me, look, we've seen the refining process in China and it is horrific. It is the kind of environmental risk that American voters just would not be willing to take. So no one else can refine them at these levels, at least with today's methods, without sacrificing like a, a portion of humanity. So we're not going to do that, are we?

[Ender Curran]

Well, and that's entirely right. Environmental risk is a big part of the equation. But there are some companies, by the way, there are including some in the US who are looking for cleaner ways to do this. So, but obviously nothing like on the scale that China currently offers. But other countries as well are coming to the table. Pakistan, for example, is floating itself as a potential partner for these minerals for the US they can be sourced from other countries, too. That's why Argentina is in the mix at the moment. When, when we talk about the support that the US treasury is offering Argentina, one of the reasons is because of the minerals Argentina has. So, but, but yes, the point is that no one's doing it on the scale that China is right now. And until that changes, China has leverage over the rest of the global trading system.

[Tim Stenovec]

Hey, I want to go into your story that looks at global trade flows and you look at what shipping, shipping companies are seeing and some of the changes. But there's a quote in the story, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Davis, Ina Simonovska, and it says this individual saying, it's very clear that we are redrawing the map of international trade. We're going to see a lot more bilateral trade agreements between countries and subgroups of countries. She predicts this. What does that mean for economic growth for individual countries and for the global economy overall? Do we know anything? And is it good? Is it bad?

[Ender Curran]

Well, it's early stages, but we're getting, we are seeing signs now that countries are looking at accelerating trade negotiations with each other and signing deals with each other. Now, the European Union is one example. They've finally gotten that deal signed with Indonesia. They are getting that big trade negotiation with South America, Mercosur off the ground trying to get that ratified. Other countries are also looking at doing business, business more with each other. New Zealand and Switzerland and the UAE are among a group who've gotten together and it's kind of a loose trading agreement that they've pulled together over recent months. And the point of all of this is, is as I said at the start, it's nobody suggesting the US is not the world's biggest consumer market and that they don't want to do business here. That's not the point. But they're seeing the tariffs going up at the fastest pace since World War II. It's more complicated, more costly for some of the business businesses who want to do trade with the US and they're asking what else can they do to diversify and mix up their supply lines under their markets. And we're seeing it in Peruvian fruit farmers, they're looking for new alternative markets. In Lesotho, they're looking for alternative textile markets maybe in Europe and in Asia. So, you know, as I say, the tariff oil, when it's gone up on the US Side, it's not about countries not wanting to do business here, but they are certainly kicking tires on where else they can diversify. And that's what these, these trade negotiations are getting a shot in the arm is one of, one of the professors, quote in the article said to us.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right, we're talking with the end occurring global economy reporter at Bloomberg news in our D.C. bureau. At the same time, we are monitoring the White House, the Cabinet Room. President Trump is there with President Milei of Argentina. They are having a bilateral lunch and obviously meeting, monitoring any headlines that come out of that meeting. In the meantime, you know, and you talk about in this story these bilateral relationships, or at least folks that you talk to are talking about a lot more bilateral trade agreements. Who wins though? Big countries, small countries, middle sized countries? Is there clear winners and losers on that metric?

[Ender Curran]

Well, probably the biggest countries will be the ones who come out of this in better order because, you know, the system up until now, whether one agrees with it or not, but the broad system up until a few years ago had been rules of the road set by the World Trade Organization. This is where countries big and small could come together and have their disagreement and argue out their case for whatever their grievance was in the trade world. But, you know, we've moved past that now we're kind of moving to this bilateral sort of approach to doing trade deals. So when you have a big country, they are able to set the terms on the table and the smaller country, of course, has to work around that. And that's where we are. It's not just, it's not just the U.S. of course, China is the other big player in the global trading system. They, as we just spoke about, hold the cards in so many areas now when it comes to not just rare earths, but they're the world's, you know, factory. So they also will set terms. And countries are worried about China's volume of exports and trying to compete against China to give in the scale and competitiveness in which they can produce products versus other countries. So the big picture is better for bigger countries, tougher for smaller countries.

[Srinatarajan (Sri)]

All right.

[Tim Stenovec]

And to current thank you so much on today's news and his story Global Economy Reporter at Bloomberg News. You can read the entirety of it. It's on the Bloomberg [e-mail] stay with us.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up after this.

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[Kathy Seifert]

I'm driving in my car.

[Tim Stenovec]

How about you let me drive.

[Ender Curran]

Oh no, no, no, no.

[Matt Miller]

This is not a toy. Who's gonna drive you home? Honey, please.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

I'll do the driving.

[Kathy Seifert]

Drive on.

[Tim Stenovec]

Excuse me, I want to drive.

[Kathy Seifert]

It's the question that drives us.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

This is the drive to the clothes.

[Ender Curran]

The music will drive us till the.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Dawn on Bloomberg Radio.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right, folks, let's get to it. We've got about 18 minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Tuesday. Carol Massar along with Isabel Lee Tim is off this week and we've got a market that's just rolling over its best levels of the session. So what does that mean? We're down about 12 points on the S&P 500. And we've got the NASDAQ 100, which has been under more pressure today. It's not about 2/3 of 100%. It's down about 161 points. I look at the S&P 500, though. Isabelle, still, most names in the index are higher today.

[Carol Massar]

Can I talk about crypto?

[Tim Stenovec]

You can talk about crypto.

[Carol Massar]

Bitcoin is down by more than 3% and ether is the one leading the broader downturn. Actually, it's the largest altcoin. It's down by almost 5%, wiping out really billions since the biggest one day industry drop on Friday.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

It's.

[Tim Stenovec]

We've seen crypto under pressure as of late, right?

[Carol Massar]

A lot of pressure. And that really raises a question of we thought this was the haven, but then it's behaving like a risk asset.

[Tim Stenovec]

It's really funny because I feel like. Yeah, we see it. Exactly, exactly. We see it kind of following the markets really closely. Hey, let's get to some of the earnings that we saw today. We've talked about the big banks so far that were out early this morning. Another one that came out is BlackRock stocks up about 3 1/2% in today's session. Rallying as the world's largest fund Manager. Pulled in 205 billion of client money in the third quarter and expanded its footprint in private credit and all assets as we drive to the close. Kathy Seifert is with us. She's vice president of CFRA Research. She covers BlackRock. She joins us from New Jersey. Kathy, good to have you here with Isabel and me. BlackRock investors like what they got from the company. Tell me about it. This company, massive. See so much. They continue to grow. Do you like what you heard from the company?

[Kathy Seifert]

Yes, I do. And I have a buy recommendation on BlackRock and I was encouraged by what I heard on the call and also in the numbers they reported. And basically BlackRock laid out a strategy of basically having three pillars of growth. Strong ETF, a strong ETF offering and strong ETF inflows. An increased exposure to alternative assets and an enhanced suite of offerings in its technology services business. Trademarked Aladdin. And in the quarter we saw basically it hitting on all of those cylinders. You know, the market has been decent this quarter and I think a lot of asset managers are going to see their assets under management grow because of decent market performance. But it's important to see who's bringing in or who's, you know, who's producing organic growth, who's bringing assets in the door. And in that, you know, on that score, BlackRock really hit it out of the park this quarter.

[Carol Massar]

So you detailed the three pillars driving the growth. But, but what caught my eye is that private markets and tech services revenue now exceed those from ETFs and fixed income. And I'm an ETF reporter, so this really caught my antenna. Was that outcome anticipated or were you expecting that?

[Kathy Seifert]

Well, that growth that we saw in the quarter is basically there's some year to year bumps because of the inclusion of some acquisitions. That's not likely to be a run rate. But nevertheless, one of the strategies at BlackRock is to increase revenue contributions from both their technology business and their private market business. And you know, if you'll recall, they've spent the last couple of years pretty aggressively acquiring really pipelines in the private market and alternative asset space through which they can grow product. I mean, I think they did it very intelligently. And I think what we saw this quarter was the fruits of their labor, which is a positive.

[Carol Massar]

Speaking of private markets, we saw that fees there have grown around 136% year over year through third quarter of 2025. How sustainable is that growth, especially as we enter this really challenging macro and economic macro and rate environment?

[Kathy Seifert]

Well, I mean that growth is not a run rate and it reflects a contribution from acquisitions. But I do think that they can produce on a firm wide basis mid teen revenue growth which is significantly greater than many of their peers. And if you look at the asset management space on one end of the spectrum, you have kind of the traditional long only asset managers, many of whom are bleeding assets. And you have the private equity firms that have had really good performance but recently have struggled a little bit because there's some issues with realizations and whatnot. Sort of in the middle of that is BlackRock, which is sort of a hybrid of both models. So I think the private or the alternative asset revenue contribution will enhance overall revenue growth. But the ETF business, which is very deep and very broad and also has made a number of innovations. You were talking about crypto before BlackRock brought in more crypto assets than some of its competitors brought in firm wide in this quarter. So, you know, their suite of ETFs is really unmatched. And you have the combination of those two things really widens the competitive edge or the competitive moat around blackrock.

[Tim Stenovec]

When you look at alts, crypto and then traditional assets, is it just a moment of time or just, just before we start to see alts and crypto on par with traditional assets?

[Kathy Seifert]

What, in what way do you mean.

[Tim Stenovec]

On, in terms of making up their overall asset composition in terms of assets under management. So I'm just saying as we see the growth, we, you know, we know we hear from Larry Fink and from BlackRock overall about the importance of private markets, private credit. So I'm just curious if you see a moment in time or are we ready there? Alts or what? 663 billion of client assets. So I guess we're kind of there or close to it, right?

[Kathy Seifert]

We're close to it. But I don't, I mean, I don't necessarily know if blackrock is fork is necessarily, you know, wanting that mix to shift that much. I mean, there is, there is a positive to having alternative assets. They tend to not be as correlated to the broader markets as, you know, equities and fixed incomes are. But for blackrock it was important because the ETF business was becoming increasingly commoditized. Fee structures were pretty rapidly decelerating, shifting into alts. And private credit achieved several goals. It enhances their competitive position, but it also enhances their revenue growth, which is important.

[Tim Stenovec]

Is there any question that wasn't answered for you? Just got about 25 seconds.

[Kathy Seifert]

No, I think the one, you know, the one issue at BlackRock is a succession issue. I don't think Larry Fink is leaving anytime soon. But that's always, you know, that's kind of always an issue and sort of what executive changes they're going to make to sort of bolster their operations amid this, this asset mix shift.

[Tim Stenovec]

All right, going to leave it on that note. Kathy, great to get some time with you. Kathy Seifert, she's Vice President, CFRA Research covering BlackRock. As she mentioned at the top, she does have a buy rating on the stock. BlackRock shares up 3.6%. Do you want to share on a competing network? BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said AI is not a bubble, but there will be failures. And he said on AI in terms of, I guess their own spending, this is capital that is mostly well spent. I know, right?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah, time will tell.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg businessweek Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm eastern on bloomberg.com the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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