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Elon Musk Eyes Record IPO for SpaceX as Lesser-Heralded Players Emerge
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- [00:00]
Paul Sweeney
At Marsh, we believe that perspective powers progress. That's why our individual businesses have come together as one company, a new Marsh built to solve the world's most complex challenges and uncover new opportunities for our clients. We're better positioned than ever to help your business navigate obstacles and unlock potential across risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting. Learn more@visitmarsh.com podcast if you're paying more.
- [00:31]
Josh Whalen
Than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes when you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50 off. I'm Josh Whalen, Founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get started@joy and blokes.com and use a promo code. Podcast new customers get 50% off their labs and for a limited time you can take advantage of our $1ed or hair loss add ons. You start TRT or in Clomiphene not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved. Learn more at joy and blokes.com this.
- [01:30]
Scarlet Fu
Is Scarlet Fu and I'm Paul Sweeney inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast.
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Paul Sweeney
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Scarlet Fu
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Scarlet Fu
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Scarlet Fu
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Paul Sweeney
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- [02:19]
Scarlet Fu
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- [02:28]
Paul Sweeney
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- [02:34]
Josh Whalen
You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Massar and Tim Stanvak on Bloomberg Radio.
- [02:41]
Tim Stenovec
We've talked a lot about long awaited return of IPO activity this year. A story on the Bloomberg noted that it minted 21 new billionaires, although many insiders have seen the value of these holdings plunge. Let's talk about the Renaissance IPO ETF attracts a basket of newly public companies. It's set to end 2025 with a single digit gain shy of 7%. 2026 though, presents new opportunities for IPO investors with space X potentially going public. Joining us with more on this is Bloomberg Tech co host Ed Ludlow. Also with us, Greg Pendy, director of Equity Research at Clear Street. He covers companies that play in space, including Intuitive Machines and Planet Labs. Ed, I want to start with you and just get the latest on Space X's ipo because you and reporting that the company earlier this month had told employees it's entering a quiet period. What can you tell us about the latest size, the scope, the timing of the ipo?
- [03:33]
Ed Ludlow
Yes, Space X and the leadership team are pretty far ahead at this point in their plans for an IPO mid-2026, maybe June. What we've reported is that it's actually an interesting kind of change in approach from Elon Musk. In particular, they want to raise 30 to 40 billion dollars, maybe even more. You'd have to do the math. The valuation will come out in the wash, right, depending on how much the company offer. But $1.5 trillion on the dollar raise 30 billion to $40 billion would be the biggest IPO of all time, right beyond what aramco did in 2019. The bigger question is why? Why do they need to raise all that money? You know, Musk always downplays the idea that SpaceX needs cash and and he certainly doesn't like the scrutiny of the public markets. But my understanding is they need the cash to buy GPUs and put those GPUs into a design for a space based data center.
- [04:27]
Tim Stenovec
Wait, don't they have enough GPUs over at XAI that they can just use?
- [04:33]
Ed Ludlow
You know, I don't want to punt this one to Gray necessarily, but you know, it's the idea that in a world where we shift from training AI models to running inference, running the models, all kinds of models of different sizes and data center capacity on Earth becomes constrained. That is the thesis that this is an energy efficient way of doing it because they're powered by solar and it gives you the capacity. But again, based on my report, I.
- [04:59]
Tim Stenovec
Hold on, I'm so confused here because you're. You're in Silicon Valley right now, right? Yep. There are a couple of data centers that are completely built out there that we've written about here at Bloomberg News that are not online yet as a result of not being hooked up to the power grid at this point. So it seems like the constraint, you know, here on Earth exists before we even have to go up to space. And it's not necessarily about having the power. I mean it certainly is. But it's funny that we're talking about solar powered data centers in space, but we're not really talking about that much.
- [05:32]
Ed Ludlow
Here in the U.S. usual disclaimers and caveats apply when we're talking about Muslim.
- [05:37]
Tim Stenovec
Thank you.
- [05:38]
Ed Ludlow
But the big picture thesis, right, if you accept Space X is stated goal of making humankind an interplanetary species that get to Mars, then at face value with an IPO whose rationale is backed by space based data center, you accept the bigger picture thesis that SpaceX and Elon Musk see a world where there just will be insufficient compute capacity here on Earth and a good technical solution is to do it in space and slightly different from a Starlink satellite, even though it's constellation based. We're talking about ginormous scale, right. And we don't know anything about it. Like we have no idea how far Space X is along on this. All we've reported is they need a lot of wedge to get there.
- [06:21]
Paul Sweeney
You know, in a non elon world I would be like this is crazy. But you know, Elon has shown that things can be done in a new way. I want to bring Greg into the conversation. Greg Pendy, director of equity research at Clear street, he does cover companies that play in space. And we talked about it, Tim mentioned it, Intuitive Machines and Planet Labs. I know you don't cover Space SpaceX yet, but curious that do you plan to cover it when it goes public? Like will it fall? Will it be something that you've got to keep tabs on?
- [06:49]
Scarlet Fu
Oh, I can't really comment on future coverage right now. What we're focused on is really low earth orbit satellite companies which are currently public that we do cover. And you know, as you are mentioning, you know about data centers in space, I would just highlight Planet Labs is the name that we have a buy rating on that we really like. Now their primary business is Earth observation. So they have cameras in their satellites and they're Mapping the entire Earth. We're talking terabytes of data daily. So the real catalyst for the stock thus far has been AI unlocking this massive database and being able to give real insights. However, what we learned on their most recent earnings call is they're working with Google on project Suncatcher, which is data center off. Working data center capabilities off their satellites in space. And where we see the advantages you've mentioned, the solar power is a big advantage. But also keep in mind, cooling's another big thing that happens here on Earth. We use a lot of water to cool data centers. Obviously space, it's much colder out there. So there are unique advantages that with Planet Labs specifically that we like.
- [08:02]
Paul Sweeney
How far along are they on this, or what are you hearing?
- [08:05]
Scarlet Fu
So the catalyst for Planet Labs Suncatcher is a 2027 story, I believe, as of right now.
- [08:10]
Paul Sweeney
Is it an Elon 2027 that could go to 2028?
- [08:14]
Scarlet Fu
Or, you know, they've thus thus far. Planet Labs has really executed on their expectations in hitting their targets. The big one for 2026 will be the owl. So these Dove satellites that they have, they have 200 of them. We're talking low Earth orbit, the size of a laptop computer. They map the entire Earth every day. They've done this for eight years. So it's a massive archive. It follows kind of Moore's law. We've gone from doves to super doves. Better resolution, but the owl will be down to 1 meter resolution. And when you pair that with AI, what that really means is the images are much crisper, sharper, and you're picking up on more objects. So the AI just becomes even more powerful.
- [08:55]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah, I mean, it's incredible. We've had some Business Week stories in recent years about the way Planet Labs and people just using Planet Labs data has been able. Have been able to make discoveries. And the implications for defense and national security are really impressive. Stocks up close to 400% so far this year. It's just had a massive run, Greg. The revenue opportunity that notwithstanding the data centers in space, but the imaging that they're doing right now, who are the huge customers?
- [09:22]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah, so right now, obviously you mentioned the government, but commercial use cases are still being discovered because now that people can use AI, it's more democratizing that type of satellite data. So companies like accessurance and Swiss Re are really using it. We're talking about the ability to use their Planet data to price drought insurance. Wow. Or just to follow patterns after a natural disaster to be able to assess that damage. And do automatic payouts. So the insurance industry is one we can all identify with. We've seen it creep into the finance industry. Oil traders are now able to actually track tankers in maritime and be able to predict better supply and demand patterns. You know, other areas, rainforest, deforestation, climate change patterns. All very big use cases for Planet Scope data.
- [10:15]
Ed Ludlow
So Greg, I'm super interested in your areas of coverage. You know, Planet Labs super interesting as well. Farming comes up quite a lot, you know, in that space based data center. The thing that I'm curious to needle you on is Planet Labs relies on Space X. Right. They need that regular cadence of capacity to get into orbit. And one thing we talk about here on the west coast is the ripple effect, the alumni ecosystem and the wake that SpaceX has left for the rest of the commercial industry. How do you model that into your coverage of the company, Planet Labs?
- [10:48]
Scarlet Fu
Well, I guess if you're talking about launch specifically, there are multiple launch operators. You know, we don't cover Rocket Labs, but that's another launch operator. So if you're all the, you are correct that you know all the satellite. Majority of the satellite operators are using a third party for launch. So securing launch windows is very important. It's something that often comes up, you know, within the companies to make sure. And we were worried during the government shutdown just overall a lot of launches were delayed. That looks to have been cleared up.
- [11:23]
Ed Ludlow
Like many Americans these days, Greg, I spent a lot of my time thinking about the Moon. You cover Intuitive Machines. You know, I recently had the first interview with Jared Isaac, man, literally after he was sworn in. Clearly it's a big focus. Why is the moon an opportunity for that company in particular?
- [11:42]
Scarlet Fu
Sure. So there's. For them specifically, they've already won the NASA NSN contract, that's Near Space Network contract. So their third moon mission, which is expected to take place mid-2026, it's an important one for Intuitive Machines because they'll actually be carrying their own satellite. It's one of five satellites that they won with this contract that will orbit the moon. So if you're going to build this permanent presence on the moon, which is the goal by 2030, you're going to need communications, you're going to need GPS, you're going to need to be able to send data. We think it's very important for Intuitive Machines because it's the start of a recurring revenue.
- [12:24]
Tim Stenovec
You think, you think Intuitive Machines can pull this off? Because they had a pretty tough year with Athena failing. Has the company recovered from that.
- [12:32]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah, they did.
- [12:34]
Tim Stenovec
They have lessons from that. Are they going to be able to figure this out moving forward?
- [12:37]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah, yeah, for sure. I do think that they, they've learned a lot. Obviously. Space is very humbling. We always hear about, you know, a rocket blowing up and what Intuitive Machines was trying to do on that particular launch. I would just note is they were trying to go to a polar region on the moon. They were not trying to, you know, land on an easy area of the moon. It's a very, very challenging area. Think of it, you know, the difference between JFK and landing in the North Pole on an iceberg here. So very big challenge. It's never been done before, that mission. Obviously, it did tilt over and land on its side. They were able to get multiple tests done, but they did not pick an easy landing spot because they wanted to be the first to accomplish that, but also because we believe there's water there.
- [13:20]
Paul Sweeney
Ed, I want to bring you back. You mentioned talking with Jared Isaac, man, And I'm just curious, in terms of government initiatives, what more might be coming in 2026 that's going to impact whether it's a Space X or some of the other companies that we've just been hearing about from Greg.
- [13:35]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah.
- [13:36]
Ed Ludlow
So, you know, Space X is going to do whatever Space X is going to do. But the kind of mainstay of the President's strategy, other than appointing Isaacman, was basically to shuffle where responsibility lays. So NASA is kind of very focused on science and research, nascent technologies and development. What the President's executive order earlier this month did, that's really critical, is it kind of transferred power to ostp, the Office for Science and Technology. And what you see, you know, and we've been talking about this all day with regards to AI policy, is it's kind of putting the goals of this country, United States, both in terms of national security and what's strategically important in space, into an office and a team of advisers that the President really, really trusts. So it'll be interesting to see if that kind of allows things to move a little bit more quickly because, like, historically, NASA's just been like, given a budget and hands out contracts, you know, assigning funds, but actually moving things at a faster pace. This seems to be the President's strategy, put the, the power in the hands of a different group.
- [14:45]
Tim Stenovec
Hey, Greg, before we let you go, you're. You cover a lot of companies, not just, you know, the ones we've been talking about right now. Which one are you most bullish on for 2026 and why?
- [14:56]
Scarlet Fu
Yeah, I mean I think the high risk reward, high opportunity is intuitive machines. Land Terrace was an acquisition that got them into the satellite manufacturing. We expect that to close by the second quarter of 2026, but we think it's highly accretive and it pulls forward their profitability. And then we see several catalysts and.
- [15:19]
Tim Stenovec
Very briefly, AST Space Mobile. You cover that company to competitor. How much of a competitor is it to Starlink?
- [15:26]
Scarlet Fu
Well, they have a different approach on how how they're working. So AST Space Mobile is partnering with Verizon, Vodafone AT&T. So they're working in a partnership capacity and you know, I think they have much different approach.
- [15:44]
Paul Sweeney
Good stuff. Love, love, love. Greg Penty, thank you so much. Happy New Year. Director of Equity Research at Clear Street. And of course our thanks to our own Bloomberg Tech co host Ed Ludlow out there. Tim on the west coast.
- [15:59]
Josh Whalen
If you're paying more than $1 a month for any ED or hair medication, listen up at Joy and Blokes, when you start TRT or Enclomiphene, you can add any ED or hair loss prescription for just $1 a month. $1 add ons with your hormone plan and right now all labs are 50% off. I'm Josh Whalen, founder of Joy and Blokes. I built this company because men are tired of paying for fragmented care without results. Every Joy and Blokes lab includes a visit with a licensed clinician who connects your symptoms to your biomarkers. You'll get a real plan that covers hormones, performance and confidence. If you're considering TRT or Enclomiphene, this is the most efficient way to do it. Get started@joyandblokes.com and use the promo code. Podcast new customers get 50 off their labs and for a limited time, you can take advantage of our $1 ED or HA plus add ons when you start TRT or enclomiphene. Not available in all states. Compounded medications are not FDA approved.
- [16:56]
June Grosso
Learn more@joannblokes.com I'm June Grosso inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Law Podcast. Every weekday we help you make sense of the legal stories that shape the nation and the world. Listen for complete analysis of the biggest court cases, the latest actions from Congress and regulators, and the legal moves driving the markets. From corporate law to constitutional law, and from state courts to the Supreme Court. At Bloomberg Law, we go beyond the day's headlines. We speak with top attorneys, judges, scholars and policy experts to break down what the rulings really mean. We do this every weekday, then bring you the best conversations in our daily podcast search for Bloomberg Law on YouTube, Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen to on the East Coast. Listen as you start your day and on the west coast, catch up in the evening. That's the Bloomberg Law Podcast with me, June Grosso. Subscribe today wherever you get your podcasts.