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- [00:00]
Podcast Host / Announcer
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- [01:14]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. Chase for Business helps business owners like you with personalized guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business make more of what's yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co.
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- [02:30]
Carol Massar
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this
- [02:37]
Podcast Host / Announcer
is Bloomberg businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg businessweek Daily Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.
- [03:00]
Brian Sullivan
Stocks lower, bonds higher as renewed anxiety over the impact of artificial intelligence on company profits joined lingering tariff uncertainty in squelching risk appetites. And you've been talking about the risk trade off Bitcoin tumbling below what, 65,000 gold rallying. We've definitely been seeing that play out in the markets.
- [03:18]
Emily Griffeo
And the tariff story, which felt like it was baked into the trade, is now coming front and center again. We were talking just on Friday, right, about how low volatility was and like the VIX wasn't moving. But the VIX has arisen from its slumber.
- [03:34]
Brian Sullivan
It's much above 20.
- [03:35]
Emily Griffeo
We're above 20. We're at almost 22 right now.
- [03:37]
Brian Sullivan
All right, fear gauge. So, so investors are nervous. So we're focusing on all of this. We wanted to get a little bit more on kind of the legal decision of the Supreme Court decision. We should say that we got on Friday and kind of what happens next and what leg challenges could be coming or legal actions coming off of that. So we're delighted to have back with us Katherine Judge. She is Harvey J. Cold Schmid, professor of law at Columbia Law School, joining us right here in New York City. Catherine, nice to have you here with us. Before we move forward about what might be coming in terms of legal action, I would love to get your thoughts on what we got. The Friday Supreme Court decision on President Trump's tariffs. What's kind of top of mind or you think should be top of mind?
- [04:23]
Carol Massar
For the Bloomberg audience, a couple things. First, it was a blockbuster decision. Six, three, the president loses. That in itself was incredibly significant given that the president has made this his signature economic program of a second term. Beyond that, however, what we really got was much more uncertainty and more questions than answers. We saw a fractured court, six of them, getting to the same outcome, but by very different paths, a heated dissent that felt that the president really did have the authority or under the claim statutory scheme to proceed as he wanted to. And so part of the challenge going forward, as we've seen, the White House still wants to impose tariffs is having to use other sources of authority that have a bunch of limitations. And the spillover effects and the full ramifications of Friday's decision are really going to take some time to work out.
- [05:14]
Emily Griffeo
Right. So when you think about the decision, does it rebalance the trade authority back to Congress, or. Or does it just now challenge President Trump to figure out other tools that he has to impose new forms of tariffs?
- [05:31]
Carol Massar
A little bit both. But really the core is the court recognized and the majority of court recognize tariffs are a variation of the power to tax. The power to tax is one that the Constitution clearly vests in Congress. It is such an impressive and important power that you need congressional authorization. And it really was an aggressive reading by this administration to try to use the International Economic Emergencies Authority for a power act for this purpose. Again, it doesn't even mention tariffs anywhere in the act. And they like that in the sense that most of the situations, and there are many that give the President authority to impose tariffs, have a bunch of limitations. They have limitations regarding how high those tariffs can be. They oftentimes also have limitations for the duration of. For how long those limitations can be in place. And what President Trump most wanted was a capacity to engage in dealmaking and to say, look, I have a huge amount of discretion here. And one of the things the court did say quite clearly on Friday is that type of discretion, that type of just handing over of the power to determine what the rate should be against him and to make constant adjustments for any reasons Congress didn't. And Congress can't hand that type of authority over to the president.
- [06:48]
Brian Sullivan
Professor Judge, though it still sounds like, from what you're saying, there is still some questions about how the Supreme Court views presidential authority. So other issues may come up where they may say, yeah, he has the right to do. I mean, go back to that decision about immunity from presidential actions, which seem to just open the door wide for this president and perhaps future presidents to do almost just about anything.
- [07:16]
Carol Massar
No, it's a great case to invoke, in part because the majority opinion in the immunity case was written by Chief Justice Roberts, who also authored the majority opinion in Friday's case. And what we saw in the immunity opinion was not just a very broad understanding of presidential immunity, but we really saw Chief Justice Roberts opining on his core understanding of how to think about the three branches of government and the incredible authority vested in Article 2 in the presidency in the President himself. And so the opinion on Friday was in some ways a welcome reprieve. We've seen a number of decisions also this term, oftentimes not full decisions, but shadow docket and other abbreviated opinions, typically giving the President a great deal of discretion. I don't think the court is going to abandon that. We have a court that is very committed to strong and broad executive power, but that doesn't mean it's going to be limitless. And the power to impose these types of tariffs, really, the power to tax, is one of the core powers vested in Congress. And so we do see that there's at least limitations that this Court is going to be willing to impose on the degree of discretion that can be exercised by the White House, by this president.
- [08:30]
Brian Sullivan
But it's something interesting to keep in mind, whether it's still on immigration issues, whether it's on upcoming elections, be it midterm or anything, you know, state issues. I mean, these are things to keep in mind that might come before the Supreme Court again when it comes to presidential authority or presidential overreach, somewhat, some might call overreach, but they could come before the Supreme Court, certainly.
- [08:52]
Carol Massar
And I think that's the right way of understanding this opinion. So part of the opinion was just a question of statutory interpretation. How do we understand the extent of discretion vested in this particular statute? You know, this passed in 1977. But as you're pointing out, as part of a much broader conversation, we've seen a very significant shift in both the Court's jurisprudence and also presidential actions. I mean, president since Ronald Reagan have taken a more expansive approach to executive authority. And during the second Trump presidency, we've seen that go to a whole new scale. Right. And so we're really working out these core legal questions of what is the nature of the authority that the Constitution vests in the three different branches, and what are the nature of the limitations? What is the role of the judiciary and the Supreme Court in particular, in both allowing but also limiting presidential action? And so there's this broader conversation that really is is at stake in the decision that we saw on Friday.
- [09:49]
Emily Griffeo
And you talk about limiting. I'm wondering how you're thinking about this decision affecting other uses of emergency powers beyond just tariffs. Because, of course, the act, the iepa, did have to do with emergency uses of, I guess, presidential authority.
- [10:07]
Carol Massar
Yeah. And that's actually one of the things that's really interesting that we thought might be resolved here. One of the ways President Trump, on numerous fronts, has expanded the effective authority that he's been able to exercise is by invoking different states of emergency. There's a whole variety of statutory schemes that say, well, here's the normal rules of the game, but in real emergencies, we want the president to have more authority, more discretion. And so he's widely invoked a variety of emergencies. We actually learned less about that than we might have in Friday's case because it was largely resolved on other grounds. We had three justices just saying straightforward matter of statutory interpretation. The statutory scheme here doesn't allow for tariffs. IPA does not allow for tariffs. It doesn't say tariffs, so it doesn't mean tariffs. Then we had three justices in opinion largely written by the chief justice, focusing on major questions and saying, look, there's a particular constitutional value that's at play here and that is the Congress's power to tax. And so we're not going to read into what we see as otherwise ambiguous language this broad authority that the Congress, that the president has invoked to impose tariffs and in such a discretionary, an ad hoc way. And so we didn't get the type of traction we might otherwise have hoped to see regarding the use of trying to invoke emergencies because there are a whole variety of emergencies that had been invoked because they were able to dispose of the case on other grounds. So that's one of the legal issues that in some ways remains open. I will say Friday's case does say, look, we as courts are going to play a role policing how the president uses authority that he claims is granted to him under different types of statutes. And that also would seem to potentially be an invitation for at least some policing of the ways that he has invoked emergencies.
- [12:02]
Brian Sullivan
Professor JUDGE One of the things, though, that the court, the nation's highest court, left open is refunds. They kind of push that back. I don't know. So we're now beginning to think what are the next legal things and issues to come when it involves presidential tariff action? So how are you, you know, how should we be thinking about that and how that might play out? We keep hearing two, three years that this is going to take to maybe
- [12:27]
Carol Massar
resolve, and it potentially could I mean, this is part of what's so interesting about this is so far the government and we see different estimates, but some estimates suggest about $160 billion that the government has collected. And not only that, but it's money that has come in during a time when the deficit has been growing. And there have been real concerns about the deficit. And so this was kind of a way that a president who doesn't want to be a high tax president was de facto imposing taxes on the American public. And again, that's part of the reason we got the outcome. We but it does create this real challenge now in terms of how, if at all, the money is going to get paid back. And so the Supreme Court, when joys of being the Supreme Court is they can often avoid these messy issues. Right. So the dissent calls it out and the dissent says, look, this is going to be a big mess. But for the majority, that doesn't resolve the legal issue. I mean, just because something's going to be messy to make. Right. Doesn't mean the president should be given authority that the president wasn't actually given by the underlying statute.
- [13:30]
Brian Sullivan
Right.
- [13:30]
Carol Massar
So they again, it gets sent down to lower courts. We do have a specialized court for federal claims and that court is now going to be charged with trying to figure out what to do in this particular case. And there's also the open question of, you know, how many others are going to come forward now that we have this opinion and demand reimbursement of money that they were paid for in, in unlawfully invoked basis for imposing these tariffs.
- [13:56]
Brian Sullivan
And then if new tariffs come down from the president, which he's already talked about, like Emily, that just, you know, you have to layer that on top of it all.
- [14:02]
Emily Griffeo
Yeah. I'm curious, Professor Judge, if that's what you're watching next year, is it more important to pay attention to what's going to be happening in the lower courts or paying attention to, you know, the headlines about all of these other new forms of tariffs that could be coming out?
- [14:15]
Brian Sullivan
And we only have about 40 seconds. Sorry.
- [14:18]
Carol Massar
The answer is both. Right. I mean, we know the president's going to is not giving up on tariffs, but there are a lot of additional checks. And I think there's also just a broad appreciation now of legal uncertainty and that's going to reduce things like his deal making capacity in really meaningful ways.
- [14:34]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. No, it's, you know, we've already seen some pushback from the European Union. So you've already started to see some actions around that. Catherine. Judge, Professor Judge, thank you so much. She's Harvey J. Goldschmid professor of law over at Columbia University Uptown from where we are. Joining us with the latest, the legal actions around that Supreme Court decision and President Trump's tariffs.
- [14:56]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
Stay with us.
- [14:56]
Brian Sullivan
More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [15:03]
Podcast Host / Announcer
Support for the show comes from public. Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts. Yep. High yield cash. Yes. Again, they even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor crypto services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures@public.com disclosures being a small
- [16:02]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
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- [17:01]
Emily Griffeo
need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single CL building slides faster than ever before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat.
- [17:30]
Podcast Host / Announcer
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple Car and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube in the meantime.
- [17:45]
Brian Sullivan
A lot too coming from our Bloomberg Economics team. In fact, they put out a brief today and they noted that we started 2026 with a bullish outlook. But not even two months into the year, many of our assumptions are being challenged and they say they talk about things like the Supreme Court ruling, concerns about the AI boom and all the spending around that. So we wanted to see what our next guest has to say. He's actually, where Michael McKe is surrounded by Fed officials and economists. Great to have. Back with us, Greg Daco. He is Chief Economist at EY Parthenon, and he joins us from the 2026 National association of Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. greg, so glad you could catch up with us. I'm here with Emily Griffeo. Has the game changed in terms of the US Economy starting with the Friday Supreme Court decision? Are all bets off?
- [18:41]
Carol Massar
I'm not.
- [18:41]
Greg Daco
I mean, I think in general, what we're seeing in terms of the US Economy is still ongoing resilience, but a lot of uncertainty as a result of the Supreme Court ruling as well as a result of the subsequent announcements by the administration to impose the section 122, 15% tariff, which have a maximum duration of 150 days. From a business standpoint, this is a highly uncertain environment. It's one where it's very difficult to plan how much you're going to invest, how much you're going to be hiring, and it makes it very difficult to plan in the long run. So in terms of the momentum for the overall US Economy, the paradigm has not shifted that much, but we are going to be in an environment where there is likely to be more restraint in terms of investment because of this latent uncertainty when it comes to trade.
- [19:29]
Emily Griffeo
What does it mean for growth prospects in the US Talk about kind of how you guys are calculating the outlook for growth now that, you know, some tariffs are being taken away, but now more are being proposed.
- [19:45]
Greg Daco
Yeah. So if you put it simply, and you think about the IPA tariffs that were imposed with the IPA tariff, you had an average cost of doing trade with the US that was around 17%, 16.9%. That was the average tariff rate. With the Supreme Court ruling that the imposition of these tariffs was not legal, that brought down the average tariff rate to about 9%. Now, with the subsequent reannouncement of section 122, 15% global tariff, you're back up to around 13 and a half percent. So a big share of essentially this potential easing in tariff restrictions has been offset by the new announcement of these, these new tariffs. In terms of GDP growth, we were anticipating a drag from the IPA tariffs of about 1.2% of GDP. Without them, only about 0.6% of GDP. Now, with the new Section 122 tariffs, we're back to a drag of about 1% on GDP growth. So a lot of the relief has actually potentially been offset by this new announcement of new tariffs being imposed.
- [20:48]
Brian Sullivan
All right. One step forward, two steps back. It feels like. Greg, I do want to get to what your note you wrote and you put out specifically on this and you do, and this is some of what you just covered. You say the Supreme Court's decision materially reduces the economic drag drag associated with IPA based tariffs. Effective tariff rates have fallen, fiscal revenues will decline, growth headwinds have eased and inflation pressures moderate at the margin. However, tariff risk has not been eliminated and policy uncertainty remains elevated. You just talked about all of this and I just go to this idea of uncertainty, whether it's over, I spend, whether it's over, tariffs, you know, what have you. This is never good for an economy.
- [21:33]
Greg Daco
Yeah, that's right. In general, business leaders across various sectors always want to know what's going to happen next. Even if that means there is a tax increase on the horizon or a tariff increase on the horizon. As long as they know that there is going to be stability in the environment they're going to evolve in, they are able to plan. Without that stability, they're much less able to plan. And you were just talking, Carol, about inflation. And I think it's important to remind everyone that even if there is an easing in the average tariff rate, it's an open question as to how much of that easing in input cost will be passed on to consumers. Because we know a lot of businesses have been compressing their margin as a result of these tariffs to avoid passing on the cost to consumers. So it's very realistic that even with some easing of the tariff rate, there is not going to be much relief on the price front because businesses are not necessarily going to pass on these reduced costs to on to consumers.
- [22:29]
Emily Griffeo
Yeah, let's talk about the consumer and what this all means for household incomes.
- [22:37]
Greg Daco
Yeah, I think that's a very important component of economic activity and we tend to forget it. If you think about how the Fed is conducting monetary policy, it has two mandates, it has an inflation mandate, it has an employment mandate. But the reality is that we're forgetting about the income component of economic activity. And when you look at developing developments in terms of the labor market, there has been fewer job growth, less job growth. We're talking about a jobless expansion and wage growth is under pressure. You combine the two and you have a trajectory for real disposable income growth that is gradually cooling. And adjusted for inflation, real disposable income is below 1%. What does that mean for the average person? It means that they're less able to spend freely. And so we're seeing this deceleration in consumer spending activity as a result of this slower trajectory for income. And I think that's a key risk that we have to be increasingly focused on in a jobless environment.
- [23:31]
Brian Sullivan
It makes me a little nervous. It makes me think of something Emily talked about on Friday about for a while we were talking was it last year, the year before, a lot about stagflation of slower growth but higher prices, inflationary pressures. And, you know, even Fed's Chris Waller says the March rate call depends on the labor market. He's watching the weakness in the labor market. Should we be talking or even thinking about stagflation at this point, Greg,
- [24:00]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
I
- [24:00]
Greg Daco
don't think it's the right time to be talking about stagflation in the sense that if you look at growth numbers, they're actually quite strong. And inflation, yes, is slightly above 2%, but it's not alarmingly so. We're not in a stagflationary environment in the purest definition of the sense where inflation would be at 5% and growth would be zero. We are seeing an economy that's growing at 2 and a half percent and we are seeing inflation slightly above the 2% target. One thing that I am increasingly concerned, though, is this notion that not everybody is benefiting from the economy. We have an environment where a lot of the growth is productivity driven and we have an environment where a lot of the growth is driven by investment. Not everybody benefits from these gains. And that means that the income for some may be really strong, but the income for a majority is is under pressure. And that in turn is a key constraint in terms of economic activity. So I'm not as concerned about stagflation as I am potentially about downside risk to growth because of this slowdown in real disposable income growth.
- [24:59]
Brian Sullivan
Right. And I do think about the gaps. Right. And if some don't feel the benefits of that growth, their income not growing for them, it maybe doesn't feel so good. Greg, thank you so much. I know it's a busy event, so glad we could check in with you. Greg Dacko, he's chief economist at EY Product Parthenon there at the NAB event in Washington.
- [25:19]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
Stay with us.
- [25:19]
Brian Sullivan
More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [25:26]
Podcast Host / Announcer
Support for the show comes from public. Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts? Yep. High yield cash? Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing Member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor Crypto Services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See completedisclosures@public.com Disclosures Small businesses are the
- [26:26]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level that makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business make more of what's Yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co. You need to make
- [27:27]
Emily Griffeo
a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click, building slides faster than ever before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat this is the Bloomberg
- [27:57]
Podcast Host / Announcer
Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [28:14]
Brian Sullivan
Hey, speaking of a lot of stuff going on, there's a batch of items we're watching in the GLP1 space on this Monday. We've got Hims and hers reporting after the closing bell today and then earlier today, Novo Nordisk ADR is dropping around 17% intraday, lowest since 2021. Some disappointing data. We're going to get into that. The new centers of Eli Lilly rallying which we'll get into. They also got some news from the fda. So let's get to a roundup on the space. Back with us is someone who tracks us the ins and outs constantly. Bloomberg News health reporter Madison Mueller. She's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. There is a lot of stuff but let's start with Novo. What their news was and again kind of another disappointing batch of news for them.
- [28:56]
Madison Mueller
Exactly. It was another rough start to the day here for Novo which we've seen over the last couple of weeks. You can't help but feel bad for them. I just feel like the bad news doesn't stop coming right now for Novo. A company that created the weight loss drug market over a decade ago and really pioneered this field, is now really falling behind Eli Lilly. So what we saw this morning was that Novo's next generation drug Cagrosema, which is not yet on the market, it's sort of supposed to be Novo's answer to Lilly Zeppbound, which has been extremely popular, it's extremely effective, more effective than Novo's drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. So Cagroma was supposed to be the next thing for Novo to help it compete with Zepbound. And so they ran this head to head trial between Zepbound and Cagrassema and Cagrecema. The expectations were that they would maybe be on par with each other. But what we saw was that Cagrosema actually wasn't as effective as that bound, which sort of dashes Novo's hopes for this next generation drug.
- [29:52]
Brian Sullivan
What can I just ask you, why is Novo like stumble after stumble as you said, they created this category. So why, why do they continue to have problems? Or is that just the way drug development goes?
- [30:02]
Madison Mueller
I mean it's not supposed to go like this. I mean drugmakers are aware that these pat patent clips come that, you know, more effective medicines are developed and they're supposed to be always investing in R and D to switch of get ahead of this problem. One of the issues was that Novo has really relied on Ozempic and Wegovy, which the molecule, the active ingredient is called Semaglutide and they sort of were like nothing's going to get better than this and pinned their hopes on that. So this next generation drug, Cagrosema also has Semaglutide. In it. And instead of really branching out and exploring other types of molecules and drugs, they've really focused their efforts and their investments on this molecule over the last few years. And that's, you know, blinded them to kind of what else is out there. I mean, there are other dynamics at play for Novo, just in terms of the US Health care market, some of the pressures now that they're seeing with President Donald Trump. So there's a lot of issues that are going on for them. But what we're seeing here in terms of R and D and investment and falling behind on the science is something that sort of has been brewing for a few years.
- [31:03]
Emily Griffeo
So Morgan Stanley said that the data readout for Novo is a worst case scenario. Now, I know you guys talk about health and GLP1 drugs a lot, so forgive me if this is kind of like a basic question, but people treated with the dose of this drug achieved a 20.2% weight loss. Like, that's not terrible, right?
- [31:23]
Madison Mueller
Really good, actually.
- [31:24]
Brian Sullivan
It's not nothing, right?
- [31:25]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [31:25]
Madison Mueller
I mean, it's, it's great. It's better than wegovy and Ozempic. The problem is that the expectation is for this weight loss market have gotten so high. I mean, in order to compete with a company like Lilly that has a drug, you know, that Zepbound is so effective, so popular, you need to come up with something better. And if it's not better, it has to be really different. Maybe a pill, maybe a less frequent injection. The problem is that Cagrosema is the same weekly injection as the shots that are currently available. And it's not much better in terms of efficacy. So why would you put all of your investment, all of your eggs in this basket for a drug that isn't any better than one that's already on the market?
- [32:02]
Brian Sullivan
I kept thinking that there were going to be different classes of patients who were going to have to take one drug over another. Just because everybody's a little bit different in how they deal with drugs. Is that really not the case?
- [32:10]
Madison Mueller
No, that is what's happening. That's totally it. Yes.
- [32:12]
Carol Massar
Okay.
- [32:13]
Madison Mueller
Yeah.
- [32:13]
Brian Sullivan
But Eli Lilly's version is really good for a lot of people.
- [32:16]
Madison Mueller
Exactly. So there's different buckets. There are the people that maybe don't need to lose 20% of their weight. Maybe they need, need to lose 15% or less or they want to. And those are the people for whom pills will be really good. The people that are in maintenance that have already lost their weight and just need to keep taking something to keep that weight off pills. That's. That's sort of the market where pills will come into play. Then you have these really effective injectable drugs like Zepbound that you can lose up to 20% of your body, you know, more than 20% of your body weight on. That's good for a broad swath of the population. I mean, I think it's like 90% of people respond well to these drugs. And then you have people on the higher end of the obesity spectrum, people who are more sick, who might have other comorbidities like liver disease or heart disease. And even though Zepbound and WeGovy do address some of those other comorbidities, there are drugs that these companies are trying to develop that are even more effective. So that will help people lose 25% plus of their weight. And that's sort of another segment of this market. And then there's a bunch of in betweens of people that don't want to take an injection every week. But you're right that the market is segmenting and that what we're seeing is there's just more options for. For patients that are better targeted to their specific needs.
- [33:27]
Emily Griffeo
Shares of Eli Lilly Madison, up about 4% right now. That's not just because of Novo's setbacks today, though, right? Eli Lilly also has some other new drug developments coming.
- [33:39]
Madison Mueller
Yes, exactly. And, and on the same topic of options, what Lilly did this morning was they launched a new formulation of their drug, Zepbound. So right now, if you have Zepbound, you can get it in a vial form, which is, you know, you take a syringe and you inject the drug yourself, or you have a shot, an auto injector pen that you do a weekly shot. You have four pens, and, you know, you change them out each week. What they launched today is a single pen that has a month's worth of the drug in it. And so each week, you just turn a dial and you sort of control the amount of medication that you give yourself. It's not revolutionary. I mean, Lilly's used this for insulin and. Or for their diabetes drugs. So they already had this technology. But what it does do is it gives patients another option if they prefer to use one pen instead of four, if they're conscious about waste. Or it also gives them a little bit of flexibility with controlling the dose, which is something that Lilly doesn't necessarily promote, but a lot of patients and doctors have sort of been doing themselves. And they launched it at a 299 cash pay price, which is the same as what they offer their vials for in terms of cash pay. So it's an option for people that don't have insurance coverage for weight loss drugs or that just want this option and want, you know, are willing to pay for it out of pocket.
- [34:54]
Brian Sullivan
All right, so we've got hymns and hers after the closing bell. Anything that you're watching out when they report?
- [34:59]
Madison Mueller
Yeah, I mean, this is a big day for him, just given all of the recent news with the lawsuit with Novo Nordisk, the FDA saying that they're going to crack down more on this copycat weight loss drug market.
- [35:11]
Brian Sullivan
Which they could do when there were shortages, Correct.
- [35:13]
Carol Massar
Exactly.
- [35:14]
Brian Sullivan
But now they can't because there aren't shortages.
- [35:15]
Madison Mueller
Exactly. And HIMS hasn't stopped. I mean, they launched a copycat version of Novo's new weight loss pill just, you know, a few weeks after Novo launched it. Novo came back and sued them even though HIMS took it off the market. So there's a lot of drama around this company and investors haven't really heard yet what the path forward looks like for their weight loss drug business.
- [35:33]
Brian Sullivan
Is there a path? I mean, the stock's down 52% year to date. 37% of the float is short. Investors are super negative. Is there a way forward when it comes to these drugs?
- [35:42]
Madison Mueller
I mean, it depends on the level of a regulatory risk that HIMSS is comfortable with, which they've always sort of skirted or pushed the that boundary and been comfortable in the gray regulatory area. But this is a little bit different. The FDA is signaling that they're serious about this. This is the most that we've seen from the FDA in terms of signaling that they're interested in taking enforcement actions. So the risk scenario has changed and we'll have to see what HIMS thinks about that.
- [36:10]
Brian Sullivan
I love this space. Are we three years in? I was trying to remember.
- [36:13]
Madison Mueller
I think three years in.
- [36:14]
Brian Sullivan
This is our right. The third year.
- [36:16]
Madison Mueller
So much has happened even in the last one year. It's hard to keep track, like winners, losers.
- [36:20]
Emily Griffeo
But him's really getting crushed. Down 70% over the last 12 months.
- [36:24]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. I mean, unbelievable. All right, Madison, thank you. Always getting us up to speed on this. Bloomberg News health reporter.
- [36:31]
Chase for Business Advertiser / Announcer
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- [36:32]
Brian Sullivan
More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.
- [36:39]
Carol Massar
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast.
- [36:42]
Brian Sullivan
Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.
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Carol Massar
Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch
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- [36:53]
Emily Griffeo
So as delivery, payments and software stocks right now are sliding. There was a report out this morning that has been picked up by Bloomberg News and pretty much every other media outlet. It's from Cintrini Research. So they're a macro research shop and they walk through. Essentially what it is is a like hypothetical report that is coming in 2028. And so it's like it takes place in 2028 and it's all about the quote, weird economy that's going to 2028.
- [37:25]
Brian Sullivan
Global intelligence crisis.
- [37:26]
Greg Daco
Right.
- [37:26]
Brian Sullivan
They're saying if this was coming out in 2028, here's what we'd be talking about.
- [37:29]
Emily Griffeo
Here's what would be, what we would be talking about. And they mention, you know, 10% unemployment rate and a labor market that has just been completely upended by AI Carol. It's quite bearish. I do recommend.
- [37:43]
Brian Sullivan
Here we are in 2026. So now what the trick is for all of us and all of investors is to figure out, you know, how much might they be right about in terms of predictions. It's definitely playing out in the trade that we've seen shares of Doordash, American Express, Blackstone all slumping more than 7% during the day. You've seen names like Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One Financial, Apollo Global and KK are also taking some hits. Let's bring in our own Ryan Stella. He is Bloomberg News equities reporter and he's out there in our Chicago bureau. This report, Ryan, definitely having an impact on the trade today. And is it just because there's nervousness in the market or because investors. You know, we've been thinking about this, this scare trade a lot over the last few weeks.
- [38:29]
Ryan Stella
Hey, thanks for having me. So what I would say is that investors haven't really needed any excuse to sell stocks broadly, especially in the tech sector over the past several weeks. It seems like this report is just sort of the latest example of people being concerned about AI disruption and using really any catalyst like this, any negative headline as an opportunity to really just sell things broadly. We had on Friday Anthropic came out with a new security tool that sent cybersecurity stocks lower. They came out with another report today talking about ways to modernize the COBOL programming language. You see, IBM is down quite sharply today. So there's all kinds of concerns related to AI disruption and people are just selling things en masse. Very cautious, a lot of concern. What is this going to mean for growth, for profit margins, for pricing power going forward? This is a real long term issue that people are starting to grapple with in A very more pronounced way.
- [39:25]
Emily Griffeo
What do you make of the fact that investors are, are basically just looking for a reason to sell though? Because that just seems like an excuse.
- [39:35]
Carol Massar
Right, right.
- [39:36]
Emily Griffeo
It must be backed by some fundamental reason that investors are finally sniffing out. Right.
- [39:42]
Ryan Stella
Well, I'm going to be watching out. We get some pretty major earnings reports this week from a lot of software companies, including Salesforce, Workday, Intuit, Snowflake, Autodesk, a lot of companies that have been sort of in the corporate crosshairs of AI. It's going to be very interesting to see what these companies say, what the management teams say about not only what they're expecting for the rest of the year, but if they have any sort of longer term thoughts about what I could mean for their businesses. You know, are they going to be able to introduce AI services that get their own demand, or are they really facing this kind of existential competition from these AI labs? Like Anthropic, like OpenAI, like Alphabet Companies are just very hard to compete with, is the fear.
- [40:24]
Brian Sullivan
So how do you take a research report like this that is looking into the future? Right. Two years from now, as we know, if you just think about the last year or last two years, a lot has happened in our universe even in the first couple of months here of 2026, especially, you know, Ryan, you, Emily, you guys are constantly reporting on the markets and different sectors of the market or segments of the, the market. Everybody when it comes to, I feel like there is one though common denominator or narrative and that is we're early in on this. We don't really know ultimately how this impacts our world and who are ultimately the winners and losers.
- [41:02]
Ryan Stella
Yeah, I'd absolutely agree with that. It does seem like adoption is still pretty low relative what people are expecting for, you know, the coming years. It seems like AI technology itself, it seems like it, it's advancing at a pretty rapid clip. So the idea of, you know, there are certain things that it doesn't seem like AI can replace right now. Who knows what the next model is going to bring? Who knows what we can expect, you know, a couple of quarters from now, a couple of years from now, you know, and even extend out to even longer, which is why you have these companies really, you have sort of the worst case scenario out there is pretty bleak for them. Just the idea that they could be completely usurped and replaced by these newer services from these AI labs. It's something that is very hard for people to grapple with. And you know, so far we haven't really seen estimates moving too much for the next, for the rest of 2026 or even 27 for a lot of these kinds of companies, people are still expecting growth in software revenue and earnings. But when you get further on past that, it becomes a lot harder to model. And that makes it a lot harder to determine. Have these stocks come down too much? Do they still have more room to go? What is fair value look like? What is growth going to look like? These are major questions that right now it seems like you have a huge, huge wide range of potential outcomes. So when you have a wide range of outcomes like that, it makes, it makes it very difficult to value stocks. And I think in the presence of that kind of uncertainty.
- [42:19]
Madison Mueller
Right.
- [42:20]
Ryan Stella
People are just selling.
- [42:21]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah. And I mean, safe to say that whether it's Salesforce or Snowflake or Workday or whatever, these software companies, Emily, can come out with a good report, you know, can be upbeat, but it doesn't mean that in a year or two years or three years from now that they could be disrupted.
- [42:33]
Carol Massar
Like this is.
- [42:34]
Brian Sullivan
This is kind of this Netherland we're in right now.
- [42:37]
Emily Griffeo
Well, Ryan, I feel like you've set us up really nicely to talk about Nvidia earnings. Is there one key metric that you
- [42:45]
Ryan Stella
and your sources are watching for Nvidia?
- [42:48]
Emily Griffeo
Yes.
- [42:49]
Ryan Stella
Yeah, that's a great question. It's sort of an interesting company to be reporting right now because on one hand we just had, you know, all the hyperscalers. So Microsoft and Meta and Alphabet and Amazon, they really affirmed pretty aggressive capex spending. They continue to invest very aggressively in AI and that really should read down to Nvidia's benefit in a pretty pronounced way. It has obviously been really the main beneficiary of AI spending over the past several years. Now that trade has started to evolve a little bit. We've seen more interest going into say, memory and storage names, for example. You know, especially this year, companies like SanDisk and Micron and Western Digital have done extreme, extremely well. So I don't think there's a ton of concern about Nvidia's near term results just because we've already had these pretty aggressive spending targets laid out. But further on, you know, there's a lot of questions now about when is all this spending going to start paying off for these companies. You have all this disruption. You know, just so many questions out there. And where that leaves Nvidia, I think right now remains to be seen.
- [43:48]
Brian Sullivan
Yeah, it's interesting to see that this stock is little changed on the year just up about 2% and it's down I think about 7% from kind of an late October high. So we'll see what happens, right? Ryan Wastelikoff, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Equities reporter at Bloomberg News.
- [44:05]
Podcast Host / Announcer
Stay with us.
- [44:06]
Greg Daco
More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Coming up
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Emily Griffeo
to make a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click, building slides faster than ever before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat.
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You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [46:55]
Brian Sullivan
Carol Massar along with Emily Griffeo here in our Bloomberg studio in New York City. A snowy New York City on that it is actually one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg. It has to do with this Northeast blizzard.
- [47:08]
Emily Griffeo
It's a powerful winter storm buried New York City in one of its 10 snowiest days on record. Carol. And poised to rank among one of the worst blizzards in almost 50 years. Over 600,000 or almost 600,000 homes and businesses lost power and more than 10,000 flights canceled through Tuesday.
- [47:26]
Brian Sullivan
I am grateful not to have lost power, but we feel for those that are and it's not over yet. We know the streets have to be cleaned up certainly in this area. We, we want to start there because kind of want to know when this is all over the tallies and dare we even ask, might there be more snow coming this week? Because it sounds like there might be. Let's get to it with Bloomberg News weather reporter Lauren Rosenthal joining us here in New York City. Lauren, good to have you here. So where are we right now in the storm? Because if we look outside, it does look like I'm looking out the windows. It looks like things are calming down here in New York City slowly.
- [47:59]
Emily Griffeo
Yes. We could still see another few inches through early evening hours. We are definitely through the worst of it. So don't be surprised if you see some light snowflakes if you're in the Northeast. But you don't need to fear another two feet dumping on you in the middle of the night like we had overnight Sunday. And how has New York City's response been so far? I did see some buses running, a couple folks saying they're taking the subways. The transit system seems to be working smoothly. Yeah. We've had reports of, you know, subways operating on local schedules. And I've seen buses where I'm based in Brooklyn with chains attached. I think the system's operating slowly, but it is still up and running in places. Amtrak, on the other hand, canceled all service between Boston and New York's Moynihan train Hall today. And there are cancellations that have cascaded into New England. So air travel has become impossible over the last day or so. We've seen thousands of flights canceled.
- [48:57]
Brian Sullivan
Lauren, I want to go back to what you said. The two feet we're probably not going to get the two feet that's already dumped on us. Is that the official tally? And I know from shoveling, and I live just across lower from lower Manhattan, I would shovel and then within the next hour they were like four inches back. You know, it would just, it was unbelievable how fast it was coming down. So is it official that we're close to two feet here in and around the New York City area?
- [49:21]
Emily Griffeo
Yeah, in Central park. We're at 19.7 inches as of just about an hour ago. If you're on Long island, yes. Totals have inched up above 2ft. There are reports of up to 30 inches, you know, in some parts of the Northeast. So I'm not quite sure that will reach 2ft in new York City proper, but it may come close. And so this is one of the 10 snowy stays on record or have we passed that tally so far? I'm just looking at what you're calling. Brian Sullivan had put out on Bloomberg News earlier this morning with some superlatives. Yeah, it's a 24 hour measurement. And when all is said and done and the measurements are verified, we'll have a better idea. We're far short of the snowiest day on record for Central park, but this morning we did crack the top 1024 hour snowfalls observed in Central park. And those records go back to the 1800s.
- [50:11]
Brian Sullivan
All right, it's been a pretty snowy start to 2026. Are we done yet? Somebody, we're sitting in their makeup room this morning and people are like, yeah, there's more snow coming this week. Is there more snow coming this week?
- [50:23]
Emily Griffeo
Unfortunately, it is a possibility. Depending on how you feel about winter, there are chances of some sort of slippery winter mix later in the week. And some forecast models have hinted at the possibility of another nor' easter next week. However, this far out, it's difficult to say with certain whether we will see another significant snowstorm.
- [50:43]
Brian Sullivan
Well, and I guess it all depends on the, on the weather. We know that first one that hit us, it was so cold, stayed so cold for so long, which is why that snow, which just disappeared in my neighborhood on Saturday and is now we're full of snow once again. But we'll see whether or not the temperatures start to kick up a little bit so that maybe it doesn't stick around as much. Having said that, is it too early to say 2026 in terms of how it's stacks up in terms of snowfall.
- [51:08]
Emily Griffeo
Yeah, we have a ways to go before winter is over. I think. You know, a lot of the forecasters we talked to on a regular basis have cautioned us we may not be out of the woods until April. So we have a ways to go before we know exactly how bad it was this winter.
- [51:24]
Brian Sullivan
We're going to leave it there. Hey Lauren, thank you so much. Appreciate the update. Lauren Rosenthal, Bloomberg News Weather Reporter this
- [51:30]
Podcast Host / Announcer
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