Europeans Privately Tell Russia They’re Ready to Shoot Down Jets

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek: "Europeans Privately Tell Russia They’re Ready to Shoot Down Jets"

Episode Date: September 25, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stanwek

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek delivers a timely, multi-faceted exploration of global defense tensions, technology trends, and the state of consumer finance. The headline segment details a Bloomberg exclusive: private warnings from European diplomats to Russia asserting that NATO is prepared to respond militarily—potentially even by shooting down Russian jets—if further airspace violations occur. The podcast then delves into impacts on US defense policy, emerging clarity on AI innovation in the chip industry, and the evolving landscape of consumer finance, specifically within the ‘buy now, pay later’ sector.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NATO-Russia Tensions: Private Warnings and Deterrence

Segment Start: 02:08

• Bloomberg Exclusive: Tim Stanwek reports on European diplomats warning the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond "with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes," after alleged airspace violations over Estonia.

• Russian officials deny any incursion or antagonistic intent, maintaining that their flights conform to international rules.

• Guest: Becca Wasser (Defense Lead, Bloomberg Economics) explains NATO’s position and the significance of these warnings:

  • NATO operates on the principle that an attack on one is an attack on all, but recent events are "not necessarily an attack, but rather incursions" into sovereign airspace, prompting collective yet measured responses.
  • NATO's message is rooted in deterrence—communicating clear consequences to prevent escalation or accidental conflict.
  • Notable quote:

    "A core part of deterrence, which is what NATO is all about, is trying to communicate to someone that their actions have consequences."
    — Becca Wasser (03:44)

  • Operation Eastern Sentry stands as NATO’s latest move to deter further incursions, with the US holding back from deploying additional forces or equipment.

• US Position under President Trump:

  • Despite reiterating support for NATO, Trump emphasizes a 'Europe-first' approach, urging European allies to bolster their own defense spending and take a lead (now up to 5% of GDP).
  • US aid to Ukraine now largely flows via NATO or direct European arrangements.
  • Becca Wasser’s assessment:

    “We don’t see any indications right now that the US is planning to [increase military aid to Ukraine]. The US is willing to provide weapons, but through NATO and only if other NATO allies will pay for those weapons to be sent on to Ukraine.”
    — Becca Wasser (06:01)

---

2. Unprecedented Pentagon Meeting: What’s Behind the Summons?

Segment Start: 07:00

• Bloomberg highlights Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s unprecedented call for all top US military commanders to meet in Washington, D.C.

• Becca Wasser notes the historic strangeness of bringing together generals from every service across all major commands worldwide.

• Secretive urgency—the agenda remains undisclosed, fueling speculation about structural change within the military’s organization or readiness posture.

• On operational readiness during senior absence:

  “There is going to be oversight, but what won’t be there is some of that guidance you have from your top leadership… to ensure things are going according to plan…”
  — Becca Wasser (08:35)

• Hegseth's Priorities:

  • Focuses on "lethality," though interpretation varies from pure capability to broader force readiness and image.
  • The meeting is seen as a chance for the Secretary to clarify his strategic intent directly.
  • “Ultimately, I think the Secretary is the only one who knows truly what he means...” — Becca Wasser (09:29)

---

3. Qualcomm, Chips & AI's Edge Revolution

Segment Start: 13:09

• Guest: Cristiano Amon (CEO and President, Qualcomm)
  • Discusses Qualcomm’s diversification beyond mobile into PCs, automotive, and cloud/server infrastructure.
• Apple-Intel Rumors:
  • Amon confirms little direct impact on Qualcomm from a potential Apple-Intel partnership; sees it as a foundry/manufacturing opportunity, not a product threat.
  • US government support for Intel’s foundry ambitions is viewed positively for the broader US semiconductor supply chain.
• PC Market Expansion:
  • Qualcomm’s latest generation of PC chips show significant performance leaps (40% CPU, 80% GPU improvements, integrated AI).
  • AI’s increasing role:

    “The transition of phones and PCs to AI is happening… Those chips are designed to do that.”
    — Cristiano Amon (17:55)

  • Market Share Updates:
    • Currently at about 9% in US and top five European PC markets, with a projection to reach 12% market share by 2029.
    • The edge AI movement (cloud + client working together) is accelerating adoption.
  • On competition:
    • The Nvidia-Intel tie-up highlights the move toward AI-enabled PCs. For Qualcomm, this validates their approach of offering "high performance, low battery life, and a lot of AI."
    • “That’s the moment we’ve been waiting for… That’s where we want the market to be.” (20:17-21:26)
  • Why buy an AI-optimized computer?
    • Next-gen interfaces let computers interact with humans naturally (via voice/text/image), running AI agents locally for privacy, lower latency, and cost efficiency.

---

4. Affirm CFO on Buy Now, Pay Later Growth

Segment Start: 27:27

• Guest: Rob O’Hare (CFO, Affirm)
  • Consumer health appears strong, with new loan origination ("over $100 million a day") and repayment data “exactly in line” with expectations.
  • Delinquencies are not rising; credit risk remains well-managed.
  • Impact of Fed rate cuts: While helpful for consumers and modestly beneficial for Affirm, much of the company’s funding is not directly floating-rate.
  • Growth Projections:
    • Guided for 37% GMV growth in Q1, down slightly from 43% in the June quarter.
    • Minimum annual growth projections set a high floor for the business.
  • Affirm Card:
    • Repeat usage product, slightly more profitable than Affirm’s average offerings.
    • Allows flexibility and use in brick-and-mortar settings where Affirm isn’t directly integrated.
  • Sector competition:
    • Robust but stable, even with Klarna’s planned IPO.

---

5. Market & Fed Commentary, Earnings Season Expectations

Segment Start: 36:29

• Guest: Jillian Wolf (Global Equity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)
• Recent S&P 500 downtrend discussed, partly as a reaction to uncertainties in US monetary policy and inflation.
• Inflation remains a US-specific concern, differentiating the American investment climate from global peers.
• Ongoing uncertainty about Fed independence—particularly regarding Lisa Cook’s status as Fed Governor (pending Supreme Court intervention):
  • If Cook is removed, this would “definitely be a destabilizing force for equities… If there starts to be pressure about who can or cannot sit on the Fed committee… it would destabilize equity markets.” (38:08–38:24)
  • No major market reaction yet signals possible complacency; if independence is perceived as threatened, significant volatility could follow.
• Earnings season preview:
  • Despite earlier fears, recent quarters saw companies effectively navigating tariffs and margin pressures.
  • Current narrative from CEOs is optimistic, but there’s risk:

    “It could really be a bit dangerous… The risks are being downplayed a little bit right now…”
    — Jillian Wolf (42:05)

  • Strong supply chain management, stockpiling, and hedges have propped up results, but expectations are now high and a single misstep could have amplified impact.

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "A core part of deterrence… is trying to communicate to someone that their actions have consequences."
  — Becca Wasser (03:44)
• “The US… has reaffirmed many of its collective commitments, but there is this emphasis on European nations doing more.”
  — Becca Wasser (04:39)
• "We are talking about hundreds of people… This is truly unprecedented."
  — Becca Wasser on the DOD meeting (07:58)
• "There is going to be oversight, but… what won’t be there is some of that guidance from your top leadership."
  — Becca Wasser (08:35)
• “That’s the moment we’ve been waiting for. And I think that’s what we do.”
  — Cristiano Amon on AI PCs (20:17–21:26)
• “You see a consumer that’s strong and healthy. … all the repayment data … is in line with our expectations.”
  — Rob O’Hare (28:24)
• "If there starts to be pressure about who can or cannot sit on the Fed committee… it would destabilize equity markets."
  — Jillian Wolf (38:08–38:24)
• “Risks are being downplayed… It could really be a bit dangerous.”
  — Jillian Wolf (42:05)

---

Key Timestamps for Reference

• 02:08 — NATO’s warnings to Russia: The diplomatic and military context
• 07:00 — Pentagon’s call for all commanders: Implications and speculation
• 13:09 — Qualcomm’s AI and PC chip strategy, competitive landscape
• 27:27 — Affirm CFO on consumer health, lending, sector growth
• 36:29 — S&P 500 volatility, Fed independence, earnings season risks

---

Tone and Language

This episode balances urgent, analytical, and conversational tones. Host questions signal both skepticism and curiosity (“What does this mean? Who's watching everything?”), while guests provide clear, direct analysis or measured caution (“This is truly unprecedented.” “There is going to be oversight, but …”). The language remains precise, with a focus on real-time reporting and strategic outlooks.

---

For further detail, listeners are encouraged to refer to the individual segments using the provided timestamps for specific thematic interests such as defense policy, tech/AI innovation, and finance/consumer trends.

Transcript

[Caroline Hyde]

Pinpointing the genetic changes that predispose us to disease Identifying the roots of mental illness Treating congenital anomalies even before birth. At Boston Children's Hospital, we're investing in children's health today to ensure the well being of adults tomorrow. As home to the world's largest pediatric research enterprise and more than 260 specialty programs, Boston Children's is where the world comes for answers. Learn more at BostonChildrens.org@GSK, our focus is on doing the right thing for patients. We believe they should be free to focus on doing what they love, especially.

[Tim Stanwak]

When they're living with a disease like cancer.

[Caroline Hyde]

That's why we focus where we can.

[Tim Stanwak]

Make the biggest difference matching the right.

[Caroline Hyde]

Treatment with the right patient. At gsk, we're pioneering advanced technologies like antibody drug conjugates that precisely target and attack cancer cells. By uniting science, technology and talent, we work tirelessly to stay ahead of cancer together. Visit gsk.com to discover more. Hiscock Small Business Insurance Knows there is no business like your business across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors, look to Hiscock's insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online', @hiscox.com that's his cox.com there's no business like small business. Hiscox Small Business Insurance Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg businessweek Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg businessweek Daily Podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.

[Tim Stanwak]

It is Bloomberg businessweek Daily. That is Carol Massar. I'm Tim Stanwak. A story that we're following closely and it's a Bloomberg exclusive, actually, Bloomberg obtaining exclusive details of private discussions between European and Russian diplomats. European diplomats warning the Kremlin that NATO is ready to respond to further violations of its airspace with full force, including by shooting down Russian planes. Russian officials have denied their planes crossed into Estonian airspace and insisted that they are not trying to test NATO, saying Russian military fights are guided by international rules. I want to bring in Becca Wasser, Becca's defense lead for Bloomberg Economics. She joins us from our Washington, D.C. bureau. Becca, what would it mean if NATO would respond in this way? I mean, isn't that the entire point of NATO to respond collectively if there is such an incursion?

[Becca Wasser]

Thanks so much for Having me today, I think you're exactly right. NATO's core focus is for the alliance to essentially treat an attack on one to be an attack on all. What we are seeing here is not necessarily an attack, but rather incursions that violate sovereign airspace. And so what we are having is a collective response. It's just not necessarily taking overt military means. What I think we have seen today with this scoop that Bloomberg News had is a warning from NATO and NATO allies to communicate that should Russia continue to violate NATO airspace, there may be repercussions for those actions. A core part of deterrence, which is what NATO is all about, is trying to communicate to someone that their actions have consequences. And I think that's exactly what these NATO allies have done today. And they're trying to make it so that there isn't a potential escalation or any accident that could spiral further and lead Russia and Naito into conflict.

[Caroline Hyde]

So US part of Naito. I mean, so I am curious. We have certainly seen from President Trump saying that Kiev and Ukraine can win and that they are in a position to fight and win back. Specifically, it just, to be fair, the president's got kind of back and forth in terms of his support of Ukraine or also support of Russian President Vladimir Putin. So is the US all in on this and supportive of naito? All in, 100%.

[Becca Wasser]

The US is a founding member of Naito and therefore has said that they are all in and that they will ensure the security of NATO and the NATO alliance. That said, if you are looking at President Trump's comments, he makes it very clear that he sees NATO likely to be a European project. So while the US Is part of NATO and has reaffirmed many of its collective commitments, there is this emphasis on European nations doing more, and within that, the idea that the rest of the alliance, now that they are spending 5% of GDP on defense, are going to be able to step up and take on the lion's share of the burden. And I think we've already seen that in the initial response to these airspace violations. NATO has stood up Operation Eastern Sentry in order to deter any further incursions, and the US has not contributed additional forces or equipment to that. We're also seeing something very similar play out as it relates to President Trump's comments about Kyiv being able to fight Russia and take back territory that it had previously lost during Russia. Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

[Tim Stanwak]

Yeah, that was a surprising development this week.

[Becca Wasser]

Absolutely. I think fundamentally what it really means is that there is no change on the ground if the US Were not to step up its military aid and we don't see any indications right now that the US is planning to do so. What is happening is that the US Is willing to provide weapons, but through NATO and only if other NATO allies will pay for those weapons to be sent on to Ukraine. So absent any change in the provision of military aid, both equipment, additional intelligence support, and potentially taking some of the training wheels off of long range strike capabilities, there probably isn't going to be the ability of Ukraine to be able to take back that territory.

[Caroline Hyde]

Hey listen Becca, one of the things we want to ask you, you're our defense lead for Bloomberg Economics. You led studies in war Games for the U.S. department of Defense at the center for a New American Security in the RAND Corporation.

[Lisa Cook]

What.

[Caroline Hyde]

What can you. We're switching gears a little bit, but there is a story that has definitely popped up high on the Bloomberg terminal and it has to do with the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, summoning top military commanders for a meeting early next week. Apparently has not talked about what this meeting is about. What do we know? What are we hearing? How unusual is this?

[Becca Wasser]

I think you've hit the nail on the head. It's quite unusual. This is something where no one really knows exactly why everyone has been called back to Washington D.C. why they're all going to be meeting at once. I can't think of a single moment in military history where every single general was located in the same room as the Secretary of Defense senior leadership.

[Caroline Hyde]

What does this mean? How many generals are out there and are they been pulled from posts around the globe? Like what are we talking about size and scope here?

[Becca Wasser]

We are talking about hundreds of people. So we are talking about some of the senior leaders in the army, the Air Force, the Navy, so every military service. We are talking about the folks who are currently leading operations overseas. We are talking about people who are based at NATO, at European Command, at Central Command. We're talking about everyone coming from all over the globe to meet in one place all at once. This is truly unprecedented.

[Caroline Hyde]

I have to ask, so who's watching everything?

[Becca Wasser]

Well, the good news is is that the US Military is highly well trained and highly capable and there's going to be a lot of command staffs that are going to be doing a great job holding down the fort wherever it is that they are. So there is going to be overs, but what won't be there is some of that guidance that you have from some of your top leadership and your top military officials to ensure that things are going according to plan and according to the guidance set forth by the Secretary of Defense and the Department of War.

[Tim Stanwak]

Perhaps it's a question about organization and what Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, wants the military to look like. Just in the last 30 seconds that we have with you, we know he's made some changes at the top. He's fired some longstanding members of the military. He's done some reorganization. How would you characterize the image that he wants to portray?

[Becca Wasser]

The Secretary of Defense has been very clear about what his priorities are and how he wishes to remake the US Military in that image. One of his top priorities has been, in his words, lethality. But lethality has not been well defined. Some people think that it focuses on capability. Others tend to think that it focuses on military readiness as well as the way in which the US Military presents itself. Ultimately, I think the Secretary is the only one who knows truly what he means, and perhaps maybe this meeting is an opportunity for him to communicate that more broadly.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, Interesting stuff. Becca Wasser, thanks so much. Defense Lead for Bloomberg Economics joining us from our D.C. bureau.

[Tim Stanwak]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this.

[Caroline Hyde]

Pinpointing the genetic changes that predispose us to disease Identifying the roots of mental illness, Treating congenital anomalies even before birth At Boston Children's Hospital, we're investing in children's health today to ensure the well being of adults tomorrow. As home to the world's largest pediatric research enterprise and more than 260 specialty programs, Boston Children's is where the world comes for answers. Learn [e-mail] okay, Canva can take your.

[Cristiano Amon]

Presentations to another level.

[Caroline Hyde]

It's super easy to use, but do you really know everything Canva can do?

[Lisa Cook]

Let me walk you through some of the highlights.

[Cristiano Amon]

Take Canva Video.

[Caroline Hyde]

Whether you're a content pro or just starting, you can make standout videos right away. There are thousands of templates, a super simple editor and AI powered tools that let you you generate cinematic quality videos with sound from just one prompt.

[Cristiano Amon]

It seriously couldn't be easier.

[Caroline Hyde]

Then there's Canva docs Create, collaborate and share visual documents that actually make an impact. Reports, plans, whatever you need. And with magic write Canva's built in AI. You can brainstorm, draft and even create copy in your own voice. And Canva sheets. It's like spreadsheets if they were fun.

[Cristiano Amon]

Which is maybe an over promise because.

[Caroline Hyde]

Spreadsheets, but they're more visual and insightful plus easy to generate. So whether it's a doc, a sheet or a show stopping video. Canva lets you bring your big ideas to life as fast as you can think of them. Put imagination to [e-mail] these days, AI.

[Siemens Xcelerator Announcer]

Can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language. AI that helps you grow your business. With Siemens Xcelerator, you can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus, you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers. That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI. Siemens accelerator. Learn more at Siemens US accelerator.

[Caroline Hyde]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. We're gonna stay on the tech world because we did have some headlines involving TikTok.

[Tim Stanwak]

Yeah, Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX will be the main investors in TikTok. This according to CNBC's David Faber. He reported this on air. He said if people familiar with the matter, Oracle, Silver Lake and MGX will have a combined 45% ownership of TikTok. That's according to Faber. Looking at shares Oracle right now, Carol, down about 5.8%.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, we're talking tick tock. We just talked about a possible Intel Apple kind of tie up there with our Mark Gurman. We want to stay again on really the tech world and even that tie up or possible tie up, we've got the head of a company that's one of the world's biggest sellers of the chips at the heart of mobile phones, including Apple, which is its second biggest customer, at least according to Bloomberg data. Great to have with us Cristiano Amon. He is CEO and president of Qualcomm. He joins us from the Snapdragon Summit in Maui, Hawaii, along with our B Tech co host Ed Ludlow, which you can find on BTV every day at 11am Wall street time and out there in our San Francisco bureau. Gentlemen, great to have you both here on Bloomberg businessweek Daily. Cristiano, I want to start with you. I got to ask you, Apple is, you know, according to our data, your second biggest customer. What would a possible Apple intel tie up mean to you guys?

[Cristiano Amon]

Look, there's, there's no relationship and actually it has been widely reported for years now that over the next few years I think Apple will stop, you know, getting chips from Qualcomm and the company has really moved on, on not only what we're doing within the Android ecosystem, but we're now in PCs and automotive, innovative in industrial, in robots. We even enter the data center. So Qualcomm, it's, it's a different company right now. We continue to execute on this strategy and there's really no relationship but in.

[Caroline Hyde]

Terms of a tie up, do you think that's even something likely that there is some deeper relationship between those two companies?

[Cristiano Amon]

The way, the way I think about it, like I don't know details but I can, I can only see two possible angles. One possible angle is intel continue to invest to become a foundry in decades. You know, as we are a fabulous company, we welcome more foundry. So today we, we manufacture our chips with tsmc, with Samsung and if intel has the capability to become a competitive founder in America, we're very happy and we, and we will look at them as a manufacturer. As far from a product standpoint, I, I can't really see a connection because Apple have their own processors and we.

[Caroline Hyde]

Want to get on to other stuff. One more question though. How are you feeling about the government investing in Intel? Do.

[Lisa Cook]

I don't know.

[Caroline Hyde]

Would it be fair for other companies, even a Qualcomm to say wait, you know, what about us?

[Cristiano Amon]

Look, my understanding of this is there is, there is an overarching strategic topic which is manufacturing of semiconductors. And I think we know and it's been widely reported that you know, intel had a struggle to compete with companies like TSMC and Samsung. So anything that is driven towards enhancing the industry manufacturing capability, especially in, in the United States or even other places. So we have a more geographically diversified manufacturing that's actually good news. We're looking at the big picture.

[Rob O'Hare]

Cristiano. Like the thing definitively that's changed is the landscape in both PC and mobile. But I really want to start on the PC bit. I look at what's come out of Maui generation to generation from a year ago and what's really clear is you want to push even to deeper into Windows based PC. Could you just explain like how the generational updates on the tech help you do that and why it's important.

[Cristiano Amon]

Yes. And I wish you all here with us, this is actually not that we.

[Caroline Hyde]

Wish we were there also.

[Cristiano Amon]

Yes, this has been, this has been day three of a lot of announcements or chip announcements, announcements and one thing that we're actually very proud I think is As I said, you know, earlier to Carol, I think the company is, is diversifying. We're building products for many different industries, and PCs is one of the growth factors of the company. So we announced our second generation PC. It was just, we just entered this market. And in our second generation, I think people are seeing one of the biggest leaps in performance from generation to generation. We have 40% improvement in the CPU, 80% improvement in the GPU, and we actually have the very first processor in a thin and light laptop and running a 5 gigahertz of clock frequency. And I. And. But the real news is the amount of AI performance. I think the transition of phones and PCs to AI is happening. And those are, those chips are designed to do.

[Rob O'Hare]

Cristiano, I don't want to make statements because, like, I'm the journalist and as you know, I love to ask you questions, but I go very deep on what's happening. And so, like, there's an acceptance that this is edge technology that's deployed in the real world. But I kind of want to hold you to how it's going. You know, in February, you basically said that in really specific category, you know, Windows PC priced $800 and above, I think think you said you had 10% market share in that. And I'm looking at the specifics of what came out of Maui in the last three days. Do you have an update on the ownership you have in that market or what this latest gen of chipsets will do to push you deeper into it?

[Cristiano Amon]

Yes, this is a great question. We are, you know, as we knew, in this market and it has been, you know, it's a, it's actually, we can leverage a lot of technologies actually accretive, I think, to Qualcomm. And we're tracking to what we said. We actually only launched this, you know, you see pieces of our chips in the United States, in the top five European markets, and we're tracking about 9% right now. I think our projection was by 2029 to get to about 12%. Very reasonable. But what is exciting right now and, and that's, I think in your question is the edge AI transition is happening. Actually the foundational models now are being designed, so they have cloud and edge working side by side and that exactly. Creating an opportunity for us to accelerate. And it is reflecting a number of designs. We actually, you know, a while ago, just a couple quarters ago, we Talked about having 100 designs across all the major PC OEMs, HP, Dell, Lenovo, Acer, Sue, Samsung. Now that number is significantly Higher. And we're seeing the excitement to, to Carol's question.

[Rob O'Hare]

I think it's fair. Like the Nvidia intel products collaboration puts this emphasis back on x86 against arm based chips. How are you tracking the penetration of both in the market? You know, if you, if you're going to react to that in, in video and intel deal and how it changes the market, you must also be tracking it in that context. You know how you are pushing into that territory.

[Cristiano Amon]

Yes. When you actually, and I'm going to, I'm going to quote you when you just said when you actually dig deeper on it and it was interesting actually. When did announcement happen? It was interesting. We were slightly up, it was kind of neutral to positive to Qualcomm. And we saw I think the market stock reaction on, on aam, on amd, on, and, and then intel was up. And the way we actually look at this, we're incredibly excited because what it basically means is I think it's intel sending a message that their integrated GPU and their AI products are, they're not going to, likely not to continue with that because that's what the market is saying. It's going to be Nvidia. So then as Nvidia comes in to the integrated GPU market, combining their GPU with Intel x86, you started to bring AI into the PC market. And that is the moment we've been waiting for. And I think that's what we do. And I think the Qualcomm DNA is anything that is battery power is high performance, low battery life and a lot of AI. That's, that's where we want the market to be.

[Tim Stanwak]

So Cristiano, sell us on this moment because I think a lot of people's experience with AI so far has been lambs and lms that you can use on your phone, that you can use in a browser. So if that's the way they are experiencing AI, why will they think that they need to buy a computer that is specialized for AI?

[Cristiano Amon]

Okay, so this is a little different and, and I wish I have time to walk you to all the details. Maybe that's an invitation for you all to come here. I think next week we'll be there.

[Caroline Hyde]

Okay, we're done, we'll come.

[Cristiano Amon]

Yes, but here I'll give you some simple, I'll give you some very simple data points. The first thing is we used to learn how to interact. We had to learn how to interact with your phone, interact with PC. But now with AI, whether is what we say, what we write what we see, the computer knows how to interact with us. So the user interface is changing and the user interface actually runs where the human is. He runs on your phone, it runs on your PC. So we're starting to see right now you see Microsoft doing that with the agents. You see that. Google doing that with the agents. Then now the computer has this agent ready to interact with you as your assistant, as you do things. That's the first thing that has happened. The second thing that is happening is there is incredible amount of processing power that is available. And as companies starting to see AI getting scale, because now it's about not just creating AI in the data center. I need to deploy it, I need to make money. They realize that you can leverage all of this computer. It's transparent to you. Is the wrong thing to talk about. AI is cloud or is edge that it doesn't work like that. Just think of, for example, if you're Office365 customer, you have cloud and you have a client and AI is going to be deployed like that. And companies are saying if I bring this to the edge, my cost goes down, my latency improves and I have privacy. And that's what we demonstrated. Many ISVs starting to deploy AI on PCs and in phones.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, going to leave it there. Glad we could get that time with you and really cover a lot of ground. Cristiano, thank you so much. Enjoy Maui. We certainly wish we were there. It's a pretty great day here in New York City. Cristiano Amon, he is CEO and president of Qualcomm from the Snapdragon Summit in Hawaii along with BTECH co host Ed Ludlow in San Francisco. Check him out every day with Caroline Hyde there on Bloomberg Television at 11:00am Wall street time. And be sure to check out as reporting out on this story.

[Tim Stanwak]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Canva Announcer]

Okay. Creativity and organizing ideas don't always go together, but Canva brings them together seamlessly and it adds so much. It's like this. You've got a vision, great idea for, let's say a presentation. The presentation in your head is a 12 out of 10 standing ovations for you and your boss. Raises all around, but turning the presentation in your mind into an actual presentation, something else entirely. There are like two dozen complicated apps involved. Not enough time. And to be honest, you don't really know what you're doing. With Canva, you can bring all your ideas together into in one place with one app. Use AI to speed things up and bring other people in to help because teamwork makes the team work. I might have gotten that wrong. Point is, your presentation will look great. You'll look great. Everybody will look great. And isn't that what you're after? There's a reason 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva. Canva lets you bring your ideas to life as fast as you can think of them. Put imagination to [e-mail] these days, AI.

[Siemens Xcelerator Announcer]

Can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language? AI that helps you grow your business. With Siemens xcelerator, you can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers. That's AI for real. From the global market leader in industrial AI, Siemens Xcelerator. Learn more at Siemens US Accelerator this is the Small Business Minute brought to you by Amazon Ads. I'm Lisa Mateo. Credit card perks offered to small business customers include cash back and travel rewards, but the feature many business owners find the most attractive is a high credit limit. Nearly half of all the small and medium sized businesses surveyed by payments.com and payments processor i2b said so, but the smaller and younger the business, the more likely higher credit limits were at the top of the priority list. The survey also found small business owners using business and personal credit cards to finance their operations, and nearly half of the of the smaller and younger businesses were carrying card balances over each month. Payments.com and i2b say the survey speaks to the need for alternative credit solutions tailored to the needs of small businesses. That was the Small Business Minute brought to you by Amazon Ads, helping you reach relevant audiences through streaming TV ad solutions.

[Caroline Hyde]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple, CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. Well, buy now, pay later is everywhere every day as it feels like you've got companies like Affirm, afterpay and Klarna. They've all brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms are also now racing Tim into the space.

[Tim Stanwak]

We talked about the growth and growing competition recently with the founder and CEO of a firm, Max Levchin. He joined us just a couple of weeks ago. Shares of a firm. By the way, they're on a tear up 30% year to date. The company provides a window into the consumer and health of our financial system. So when we were given the opportunity to talk with another key member of the C suite, we certainly jumped on that. We got Rob o' Hare with us. He's CFO of a firm. He was featured in a recent edition of the Bloomberg CFO Briefing Newsletter. He joins us from San Francisco. By the way, sign up for that newsletter, bloomberg.com CFO-Briefing also with us is Nina Trentman. She is Bloomberg News Senior editor. She writes the Bloomberg CFO Briefing Newsletter. She's here in the studio. Rob, that's exactly where I want to start with you. How the consumer is doing, it's a question we post to Max a few weeks ago. But you guys have real time data. You're seeing at every moment how people not just are spending money, but how they are with paying it back. How's the consumer in the US doing?

[Rob O'Hare]

Well, first of all, thanks for having me. In terms of the consumer data that we see, we, we see a consumer that's strong and healthy. You know, we are, we're originating, you know, over $100 million of loans every day. And right now, all of the repayment data that we see in our daily loan cohorts, it's all really strong and it's exactly in line with our expectations. So that, that tells us that the consumer is healthy and that tells us that we're setting the right underwriting posture in our business.

[Lisa Cook]

Rob, how about delinquencies in the business? Those ticking up? What are you seeing there in the data?

[Rob O'Hare]

No, I mean we, we manage credit. That really is job one internally for us. And we stare at delinquency data. That's, that's part of the repayment data that I was alluding to. And we're seeing outcomes that are exactly in line with what we would expect.

[Tim Stanwak]

Just wondering, with the Fed cutting interest rates last week and indicating that there.

[Cristiano Amon]

More might be more cuts to come.

[Caroline Hyde]

How important do you think that is.

[Tim Stanwak]

For your consumers and also how important.

[Lisa Cook]

Is it for your business?

[Becca Wasser]

Is.

[Rob O'Hare]

It may be helpful for consumers. Right. It may reduce the consumers total costs of credit, which I think is, is beneficial for them. For us though, you know, we actually like the rate environment that we're in today where we're very profitable as a business. When we look at loans on a unit level, we're sort of at or above our long term ranges. So we feel good about this rate environment. If rates were to go down from here, it might be A modest benefit for us. Not all of our funding that we utilize is floating rate in nature. So there could be a lag effect to see any sort of real material benefit. But I think one of the great things about a firm is that we can be adaptable and we can excel in any macro environment.

[Caroline Hyde]

One thing we want to ask you about is that Bloomberg Intelligence, our own research team, Rob, has put out a report this morning and they are projecting that a firm will surpass 30% growth this year to ahead of consensus. So just talk to us if you will about some of the drivers here. When it comes to volume drivers, I.

[Rob O'Hare]

Think it's important to remember that our outlook for fiscal 26, we have a June fiscal year. We've established a minimum GMV for the, for the year. So we don't have a range out there. There's no high end to that, to that estimate. So. So certainly we put out a minimum number for GMV and we would hope to achieve that just given that it is what we think a floor for the business closer to home. For Q1, we're guiding that. We see about 37% growth in the GMV line in the September quarter and that would be down from the 43% that we had in the June quarter. So both metrics I think are quite healthy and quite strong and we really like what we're seeing in the business today.

[Tim Stanwak]

Hey, very briefly, can you just tell us a little bit about the affirm card? 10% of your users are on the card. Tell us exactly how it works and the profitability on the cards portfolio. Is it better than conventional buy now, pay later?

[Rob O'Hare]

Our card is slightly better profitability than our business at large. That really stems from the fact that the Affirm card is a repeat usage product. Most of our consumers come to us through one of our merchant integrations and then look to deepen the relationship with a firm through some of our direct to consumer products like a firm card. So there's a lot to like about a firm card, both for us but for consumers too. It puts all of the utility, all the financing and flexibility that we offer through a firm, it puts it on a card and it allows consumers to transact in places that today a firm doesn't have quite the level of coverage that we have on E Commerce. So we see a lot of usage for a firm card in store in brick and mortar situations. And you can also utilize a firm card quickly and easily at merchants where they don't have an affirm integration yet.

[Tim Stanwak]

Rob, we're unfortunately running out of time.

[Lisa Cook]

Maybe just 30 seconds.

[Caroline Hyde]

Just about the growth in your space. We've seen Klarna recently go public again.

[Tim Stanwak]

How far is that potentially boosting even.

[Caroline Hyde]

Attention to the, to the space?

[Rob O'Hare]

You know, we think it's good for investors to have multiple providers in the space that they can compare and contrast across us in Klarna, I would say our, our space has been competitive for several years now. We really haven't seen a change in competitive intensity. So, you know, we're focused on, on driving our objectives. And right now the business looks incredibly strong from our perspective.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, going to leave it there. Rob, thank you so much. Robert o', Hare, chief financial officer of a firm featured in a recent Bloomberg CFO Briefing newsletter. A new one, by the way, out on Sunday. Find it at bloomberg.com/CFO briefing. And of course, always our thanks to Nina Trentman. She's Bloomberg News senior editor.

[Tim Stanwak]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily coming up after this.

[Canva Announcer]

Okay, creativity and organizing ideas don't always go together, but Canva brings them together seamlessly. And it adds so much. It's like this. You've got a vision, great idea for, let's say, a presentation. The presentation in your head is a 12 out of 10 standing ovations for you and your boss raises all around. But turning the presentation in your mind into an actual presentation, something else entirely. There are like two dozen complicated apps involved. Not enough time. And to be honest, you don't really know what you're doing. With Canva, you can bring all your ideas together in one place with one app. Use AI to speed things up and bring other people in to help because teamwork makes the team work. I might have gotten that wrong. Point is, your presentation will look great. You'll look great. Everybody will look great. And isn't that what you're after? There's a reason 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Canva. Canva lets you bring your ideas to life as fast as you can think of them. Put imagination to [e-mail] these days, AI.

[Siemens Xcelerator Announcer]

Can help you write emails, summarize long meetings, and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language, AI that helps you grow your business. With Siemens Xcelerator, you can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus, you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers. That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI Siemens Accelerator. Learn more at Siemens US Accelerator. This is the Small Business Minute brought to you by Amazon Ads. I'm Lisa Mateo. Credit card perks offered to small business customers include cash back and travel rewards, but the feature many business owners find the most attractive is a high credit limit. Nearly half of all the small and medium sized businesses surveyed by payments.com and payments processor i2b said so. But the smaller and younger the business, the more likely higher credit limits were at the top of the priority list. The survey also found small business owners using business and personal credit cards to finance their operations, and nearly half of the smaller and younger businesses were carrying card balances over each month. Payments.com and i2b say the survey speaks to the need for alternative credit solutions tailored to the needs of small businesses. That was the Small Business Minute brought to you by Amazon Ads helping you reach relevant audiences through streaming TV ads solutions.

[Caroline Hyde]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stanwak]

Jillian Wolf is back with us. She's Bloomberg Intelligence Global Equity Strategist. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Jillian, we are off our worst levels of the day, but we were down as much as 1% at the lows on the S&P 500 at one point today. Why some sell? I mean, look, stocks go up and stocks go down, but are there any fundamentals here that you are watching about why? We've seen shares of the S&P 500 down for three days in a row.

[Lisa Cook]

I think it's interesting that The S&P 500 is down, particularly right after this Fed cut, right? That's supposed to give a big amount of juice to the equity market, right? And now there's a lot of thoughts about, well, how many, how many cuts can the Fed really do if we're running into some hotter inflation going forward? I think one of the things that differentiates the US Economy right now from a lot of others right now across the globe is that CPI's have been accelerating over the past few months in the US and they've broadly been flat to stable elsewhere in the world. So we're not really in the same 2022 scenario where inflation was just hot everywhere and investors didn't really have a choice but to invest in an area where inflation was getting hotter. Now it's really kind of becoming a US Issue and that's bringing into question a lot of what the Fed really will be able to do. And I think that's why we're seeing a little bit of weakness.

[Caroline Hyde]

Speaking of the Fed, Fed's Lisa Cook warning, of course, the Fed Governor Lisa Cook warning the Supreme Court of market chaos. If she's fired, she has made a filing to the Supreme Court in a bid to save her job. We know that President Trump has taken it to the Supreme Court in order to remove her from the Federal Reserve. So the back and forth continues. Do you agree that if, if indeed Lisa Cook is out, what would that mean potentially for the equity side of things?

[Lisa Cook]

I think it would definitely be a destabilizing force for equities. Right. There is a reliance in the investor community that the Fed can act independently of whoever the President is or whatever is happening.

[Caroline Hyde]

And that to you would be a clear sign of the Fed isn't dependent anymore.

[Lisa Cook]

Correct? If, if there starts to be independent. Yeah, exactly. If there starts to be pressure about who can or cannot sit on the, on the Fed committee as a result of their choices, it's a sign that there's less Fed independence, which regardless of whether you think that there should or shouldn't be less independent as an individual, it would destabilize equity markets.

[Caroline Hyde]

Because what does destabilize mean? 10% down 20%, down 50%.

[Lisa Cook]

It depends. I wouldn't make a call to say, oh, well, it'd be down 10 or 30% or something like that. But I think it casts a lot of doubt into the Fed's ability to keep inflation under control and then that would ultimately bleed through into the market. Right. So the Fed isn't allowed to control, to control inflation and fulfill its mandate, trying to keep unemployment low and keep uninflation inflation low as well. Ultimately the stock market will respond if those forces start to get out of control.

[Tim Stanwak]

We haven't seen even a reaction. Sorry, we haven't seen a big reaction from the bond market or the stock market that shows that this is a real risk right now, at least to investors.

[Lisa Cook]

I think there's just so much uncertainty with this administration. Administration in particular. I mean, Trump was going to fire Powell at one point and that didn't end up happening. I think we're in this very much wait and see mode to see if any of this actually goes through the market. I don't think is pricing that, that in right now, to be honest, which is a little bit dangerous because we are at all time highs. If there starts to be a signal that the Fed is losing some of its dependence that could really rock the market from this very high place. That said, who's to say whether or not this actually happens? I think. I think it's very difficult for anyone to really make that call right now given the amount of volatility that see in this administration.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, so Jefferies Financial, I can't remember who was on with us, says, actually that's like the first sign of, you know, kind of the beginning of earnings. And we'll start to get an idea, certainly from a financial market perspective. They report after market September 29, and then of course, we get JP Morgan, which is the big one that we always focus on, and that comes October 14th. But earnings, what can you tell us about expectations?

[Tim Stanwak]

Eric Weiner told us that that's who it was, Eric. Because I was like, it was 30 seconds to remember.

[Caroline Hyde]

But he said, because we were saying just JP Morgan, you know, in a couple of weeks, he's like, actually, Jefferies comes before that, and we will get that after the close on September 20th. What are we expecting for earnings this go around?

[Lisa Cook]

I think TO Q was such a big beat. I think earnings are a little bit of a precarious place right now, right? Because TO Q we had this massive beat. The tariffs really didn't flow through to earnings in as negative of a way as many people expected. There was this pause. Analysts made a lot of cuts heading into the second quarter. Turns out they didn't really have that much of an impact. What we're finding on earnings calls, quite a bit. Our CEOs and C suites saying, we can manage this. We have inventory stock in place. We're hedging our bets against tariffs. I think there is a lot of expectation right now from investors that companies are actually going to be managing this tariff situation in this new tariff regime relatively smoothly. And any cracks that start to emerge in the earnings picture could be quite dangerous.

[Tim Stanwak]

When you say relatively smoothly, what does that mean? Like, put some pressure on margin, pressures on margins?

[Lisa Cook]

Because right now we're not seeing it putting pressure on margins too much. A lot of companies stocked up early in advance of this, and a lot of companies are saying that they're coming to their own independent deals and they have their own supply chains, and things have been relatively smooth sailing thus far. I think it's setting up a bit of this, maybe a very high bar for earnings to clear in the next few quarters. Because now C Suites have really given this impression of, we got this. This is not going to be that bad. And if it turns out that cost pressures really start to go up and start to eat into margins. I think because the market isn't expecting it right now. That's why the market's at new all time highs. It could really be a bit dangerous.

[Caroline Hyde]

No, I think about the conversation that we have with Chris Nicholas, presidency of Sam's Club yesterday, right. When he talked about, I mean Wal Mart and all of its universe has incredible leverage with their supply chain. We know that, we know that. We talk about their ability to do that. But he did say that because of, I guess that supply chain, the relationship with their suppliers that they can go back and kind of figure this out with higher tariff costs or figure out ways to maybe cut costs out elsewhere so that necessarily so that they don't necessarily have to raise prices to consumers.

[Lisa Cook]

The discussion has really been about we run a natural language processing sentiment model on our team. It's a fancy way of saying we run all the transcripts, earnings transcripts through an algorithm that tells us how positive or negative the C suite sounds about certain topics around tariffs. They still sound pretty positive. They're really hedging their bets and I think we have to temper our expectations that maybe this won't be the worst case scenario for tariffs that we thought was going to happen back in April and May. We're not going to see this huge implosion of margins into the end of the year. But I think the risks are being downplayed a little bit right now of this is smooth sailing. This shouldn't be any problem for us, which is what we're seeing on these calls. And there really is a risk heading into 2026 that it starts to weigh down on their costs.

[Tim Stanwak]

I wouldn't be surprised if executives don't want to say that because they don't want to draw attention.

[Lisa Cook]

They don't. But it's setting up a risky place keeping the market this high that the second you get even a little bit of disappointment on that, that's really going to have an exacerbated effect. Now because we're expecting things to run.

[Caroline Hyde]

So smoothly, we're living in a fear factor moment. That's kind of how I see it. It's kind of interesting. But I also talked about when we talked about this with Mark Gurman when it comes to Apple and fiduciary responsibilities. Right. Of a CEO of a publicly held companies in maybe keeping their companies off the radar. Right. I don't know.

[Lisa Cook]

Yeah. I mean you don't want to look, you don't want to sound the alarm bells if you're in the sweet suite, your job is, particularly in these earnings calls, is talk about how you're going to manage the tariff regime. You don't want to. Yeah. Say the world's on fire and this is terrible.

[Caroline Hyde]

All right, all right, Gillian, thank you so much. Gillian Wolf, she's Bloomberg Intelligence global equity strategist joining us in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. This is Bloomberg. This is the Bloomberg businessweek daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm eastern on bloomberg.com the I radio app TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[Rob O'Hare]

Mint is still $15 a month for premium wireless. And if you haven't made the switch yet, here are 15 reasons why you should. One, it's $15 a month. Two, seriously, it's $15 a month. Three, no big contracts. Four, I use it. Five, my mom uses it. Are you, are you playing me off? That's what's happening, right? Okay, give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for.

[Canva Announcer]

Three month plan $15 per month equivalent required. New customer offer first three months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com in the heat of battle, your squad relies on you. Don't let them down.

[Caroline Hyde]

Unlock elite gaming [e-mail] Dominate every match.

[Canva Announcer]

With next level speed, seamless streaming and performance that won't quit.

[Caroline Hyde]

And push your gameplay beyond limits with Intel Core Ultra processors. That's the power of Lenovo.

[Canva Announcer]

With intel inside.

[Caroline Hyde]

Maximize your edge by [e-mail] during their.

[Canva Announcer]

Back to school sale.

[Caroline Hyde]

That's lenovo.com lenovo Lenovo.

[Rob O'Hare]

Check out the.

[Cristiano Amon]

New season of Reasonable Doubt, now Streaming on Hulu.

[Caroline Hyde]

LA's most successful attorney, Jack Stewart defends.

[Lisa Cook]

A young actor accused of murder.

[Caroline Hyde]

Follow Emma Yahtzee, Coronaldi, Morris Chestnut, Joseph Sakura and guest stars Kash Doll and Lori Harvey as they fight their personal battles in the spotlight of the year's most sensational trial. In the pursuit of justice, every move counts. Reasonable Doubt Season 3, now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney for bundle subscribers. Terms apply.