Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary

Episode: Fed Cuts Rates With Three Dissents, Projects One Cut in 2026
Date: December 10, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec
Notable Guests: Steve Moore (Co-founder, Unleash Prosperity), Stuart Paul (US & Canada Economist, Bloomberg), Ira Jersey (Chief US Interest Rate Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence), Zach Wasserman (CFO, Huntington Bankshares), Anurag Rana (Senior Technology Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)

Episode Overview

This episode delivers in-depth analysis and expert commentary on the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated decision to cut rates for the third consecutive time at the last FOMC meeting of 2025, the notable three-way dissent among committee members, projections for 2026, and what it means for monetary policy, markets, banks, and the broader economy. It explores the dynamics behind the Fed decision, expectations for future leadership, the ongoing debate about inflation versus employment, and the ripple effects for sectors like banking and tech. Notable Fed watchers and economic voices weigh in, offering predictions and policy critiques.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Federal Reserve's Latest Decision

• Fed Rate Cut: The Fed executed a quarter-point rate cut, marking the third in a row (02:11).
• Divergence Among FOMC Members: This time, there were three dissents—a record for the current cycle. One member wanted a more aggressive 50 basis points cut (Stephen Myron), while two others (Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed; Jeff Schmid, Kansas City Fed) wanted to keep rates steady (02:47–03:17).

Quote:

“Not a lot of consensus but must have been a healthy debate at the Fed table.” — Carol Massar (03:20)

• Risk Balance: Chairman Jay Powell’s remarks repeatedly highlighted, “There is no risk-free path forward,” emphasizing tough trade-offs between inflation and employment (03:21–04:20).
• Current Outlook: The Fed’s projections indicate only one rate cut expected in 2026, maintaining a cautious view (02:47–03:01).

2. Policy Tensions: Inflation vs. Employment

• Fed’s Dual Mandate:
  Discussion focused on which side of the Fed’s mandate—controlling inflation or supporting employment—should take priority in the current environment.

  • “Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high and that we want it to come down, and agrees that the labor market has softened.” — Stuart Paul recapping Powell (04:13)

• Debate Among Experts:

  • Ira Jersey explained why the Fed may be closer to 'neutral' territory:

    “With all the committee members…are we there at the mystical neutral rate? [Powell] conceded that he thinks…they’re now in the range of being at neutral, so this could be the end of cuts—unless the data changes enough.” (06:06)

  • He believes Fed tools are less effective for fighting inflation currently, with more concern warranted over the jobs market, especially as hiring softens beneath the surface (07:24–09:22).

3. Fed Balance Sheet and 'QE Light'

• Fresh Purchases:
  The Fed announced a significant expansion of its balance sheet via new purchases of short-term Treasury securities, surprising observers with a $160 billion infusion aimed at providing ample bank reserves through April (09:22–10:11).

Quote:

“That’s actually probably the bigger story…It made the whole meeting a lot more dovish.” — Ira Jersey (09:41)

4. Political and Leadership Dynamics

• White House Reaction:
  President Trump commented that the cut "could have been doubled," reiterating calls for more aggressive easing (05:10).

• FOMC Appointments & Influence:

  • Discussion around potential Fed leadership changes, with names like Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh floated as possible replacements for Jay Powell in 2026 (18:52–20:29).
  • Steve Moore observed:

    “He’s picking someone who agrees with his overall economic philosophy and that’s exactly what a president should do…I don't think that means undue influence on the independence of the Fed.” (26:04)

5. Bank and Regional Economic Insights

Guest: Zach Wasserman, CFO, Huntington Bankshares

• Banking Sector Outlook:
  Wasserman supports the Fed’s cautious approach given lingering inflation pressures and a cooling labor market (46:15–46:53).

  • He notes the bank is seeing strong loan growth (about 8–9% year over year) and describes the consumer as “stable” (53:29).
  • Organic expansion is prioritized over large-scale acquisitions:

    “Our objective is organic growth…we’re not trying to be a national bank, but deeply present in the states that we’re in.” (50:26–50:38)

• AI and Productivity in Banking:
  Huntington has expanded from just two GenAI projects to thirty in the past year, focusing on both efficiency and customer service (54:00–54:31).

6. Broader Economic and Tech Sector Ramifications

Guest: Anurag Rana, Senior Technology Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence

• Corporate Reactions to Fed Policy:

  • Discussion of Oracle and Adobe earnings highlights the dominance of cloud demand, the challenges of converting order backlogs to revenue, and how AI features are shaping product value (30:18–36:34).

• AI's Economic Impact:
  Anurag Rana shares findings from a cross-industry C-suite survey:

  “Every sector is extremely worried about being disrupted...even traditional laggards are now quick to adopt AI tools.” (37:48–38:54)

  • AI’s influence on productivity is increasing, with a widening gap between revenue growth and headcount in tech firms—a sign of labor efficiency improvements (39:31–40:11).
  • Despite this, mass layoffs are not yet apparent, suggesting a gradual transition (“TBD,” as Carol Massar reiterates) (40:11).

• Meta Platforms' Shift in AI Monetization:
  Rana explains Meta’s pivot from open source to closed source AI models as a necessary move to monetize its large investments (40:40–41:11).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Carol Massar:
  “Not a lot of consensus but must have been a healthy debate at the Fed table.” (03:20)
• Stuart Paul:
  “Everyone around the table at the FOMC agrees that inflation is too high… and the labor market has softened.” (04:13)
• Ira Jersey:
  “That’s actually probably the bigger story…It made the whole meeting a lot more dovish.” (09:41)
• Steve Moore:
  “He’s picking someone who agrees with his overall economic philosophy and that’s exactly what a president should do…I don't think that means undue influence on the independence of the Fed.” (26:04)
• Zach Wasserman:
  “Our objective is organic growth…we’re not trying to be a national bank, but deeply present in the states that we’re in.” (50:26)
• Anurag Rana:
  “Every sector is extremely worried about being disrupted...even traditional laggards are now quick to adopt AI tools.” (37:48)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Fed decision and dissents: 02:11–03:17
• Powell’s remarks and risk assessment: 03:21–04:20
• Expert perspective from Ira Jersey: 06:06–09:41
• Fed leadership and White House relations: 18:52–20:29, 26:04–27:10
• Banking sector reaction (Zach Wasserman): 46:15–54:47
• AI and tech sector impacts (Anurag Rana): 30:18–41:11

Memorable Moments

• Healthy Dissension at the Fed: The rare three-way split among FOMC voters illustrates the complexity of the current macroeconomic environment.
• Debate on Fed Independence: Steve Moore’s candid explanation of how presidential appointments influence, but don't dictate, monetary policy choices.
• AI’s Real-World Banking Footprint: Zach Wasserman quantifies Huntington’s shift to AI-enabled workflows and predicts rising productivity.
• Meta’s Strategic Pivot: Anurag Rana draws a parallel with the Linux vs. Windows paradigm in describing Meta’s decision to close off its AI models for revenue.

Conclusion

This episode offers a comprehensive view of the Fed’s latest policy move, the fundamental challenges around inflation and employment, and the profound effects of monetary policy on markets, banks, and the tech sector. The hosts facilitate lively, informed debate among experts regarding the future of central bank leadership, the evolving balance of risks, and the technological transformation across industries. The blend of economic insight, candid political context, and forward-looking tech commentary provides a well-rounded briefing for anyone tracking the future of the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy.

Listen to catch a wider spectrum of insights, including sectoral impacts, leadership predictions, and exclusive data on AI adoption across industries.