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- [00:00]
Carol Massar
Pinpointing the genetic changes that predispose us to disease Identifying the roots of mental illness Treating congenital anomalies even before birth. At Boston Children's Hospital, we're investing in children's health today to ensure the well being of adults tomorrow. As home to the world's largest pediatric research enterprise and more than 260 specialty programs, Boston Children's is where the world comes for answers. Learn more@bostonchildrens.org.
- [00:32]
Antonio Neri
Did my card go through?
- [00:33]
Carol Massar
Oh no.
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Tim Stenovec
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Carol Massar
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Josh Weinstein
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Marta Norton
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- [01:34]
Carol Massar
Studios Podcasts Radio News this is Bloomberg.
- [01:40]
Tim Stenovec
Business Week insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg businessweek podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.
- [01:58]
Carol Massar
Seen certainly, you know, stocks struggle. We're at the tail end of earnings, although we've got a couple of earnings that certainly were key in today's trade and a couple of big ones that we continue to get to fill in the earnings picture. But this is so important and we're getting stories of concerns about, or I should say the C suite, talking about uncertainty, economic uncertainty in terms of the outlook, you know, pointing to things like trade, sentiment. These are things that, you know, especially sentiment. It's just a way people feel, whether it's about shopping, spending or what they feel about the market. But sentiment can turn into reality. And so that's why we pay so close attention to it, especially when we think about what might happen. I mean, we're almost halfway through this year. I know we still have a couple of months. What I know.
- [02:44]
Tim Stenovec
But it's kind of, let's say we're almost a quarter of the way through this year, let's say that.
- [02:47]
Carol Massar
All right. A quarter. A quarter, technically correct. But it feels like a lot more.
- [02:51]
Tim Stenovec
It does feel like a lot. Look, I talked to some market observers this week who repeated this idea that once we do get regulatory clarity on tariffs, which supposedly is coming April 2, the President keeps reminding us, then we will see things settle down a bit. I don't know, Carol. I'm not so sure.
- [03:07]
Carol Massar
I got to say, if that's it. Yes. If more tariffs possibly come or we continue to hear it in the narrative out of the White House, that could be problematic. Hey, listen, another great bellwether economic bellwether market bellwether is FedEx. We got their earnings last night. Stock at its lows today, down almost 12% right now, down about 6.3%. Company did lower its full year guidance for a third consecutive quarter, citing inflation and citing uncertain demand for shipments. So let's get back to Lee Klaskow. He was with us as we were breaking down those earnings last night. He's Bloomberg Intelligence, senior transport logistics and shipping analyst. He joins us from headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey. So, Lee, did we get more from the company following earnings about that cut in its full year guidance for the third quarter?
- [03:51]
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, I think we, you know, what it pointed to is a weaker industrial economy and a weaker B2B demand or business to business demand. So obviously not the home deliveries. It's just parcels between companies. So think of lawyers and things of that nature. That's been much weaker than I think they expected. And as you mentioned, we're mentioning, you know, the whole uncertainty that's swirling around the economy really is making it hard not only for people like me to kind of figure out, you know, where things are heading, but also the C suite to kind of give guidance that that's going to come in within range. So there's, there's a lot of risks to guidance going forward for not only FedEx but for a lot of companies in the space. Because if, if, if the risk or if actual tariffs are going to hurt demand and be inflationary, that is going to really hurt the freight economy recovery, which is something we were really hoping for in 2025. But it seems that that recovery is getting pushed out further and further.
- [04:53]
Tim Stenovec
Lee, how much further do you think that recovery is getting pushed out?
- [04:57]
Lee Klaskow
Well, we're seeing like, you know, certain aspects of the market. So like the rail industry, the rail industry is showing volume growth, which is good, but some might argue a lot of that growth is just pull Forward demand less than truckload carriers, which FedEx has, is actually the largest provider of that kind of service, LTL service in their FedEx freight business, you know, that's been down, we've seen tonnage down from, from FedEx and from its competitors down by mid to high single digits. And that business is really tied to the industrial economy. So that business will go as the ISM goes, which is a good leading indicator. And while that's been positive for the last two months, it's been barely in expansion mode. So you know, that recovery is extremely fragile.
- [05:45]
Tim Stenovec
Is there, I mean, are you, are you taking any signs from this report, from the commentary that we got on the call, Lee, about this being an economic bellwether for how the economy is doing? You did say that, you know, that B2B communication, that typically happens with FedEx, less of that is happening. How are you reading into that?
- [06:05]
Lee Klaskow
Yeah, so I think with FedEx it's two things. So some things are very FedEx specific in terms of their earnings announcement and their lower expectations. And some things are just the, is the macro for the FedEx specific stuff. You know, they are walked away from their contract with the US Postal business because it was low margin business and they, they wanted to restructure their networks. They didn't have as many planes in the air because that's very expensive to operate. So they're kind of decided not to renew that business and they're restructuring their business. And FedEx is also a company that was extremely bloated, you know, call it five, six years ago. And it's, you know, now they're really doing the hard work of the productivity improvements that we're seeing within, whether it's their drive initiative or some of their other initiatives that are really going to drive margin improvement. The problem is, is that you need more growth on the volume side to really see those margins improve. And a lot of that growth has to be on the B2B side. And so to answer your question, you know, yes, it is. They are telling us that the, the industrial economy is a lot weaker, the consumer is somewhat resilient. But that resiliency, again, you know, I think the two words if we're playing a drinking game would be fragile and uncertainty. You know, every time someone said that you had to take a drink, I think that, you know, depending on how inflationary tariffs are, you know, could have a really big impact on consumers. And as you noted earlier before I came on that, you know, the consumer confidence is, is kind of like, you know, stumbling along and it's been moderating since the beginning of the year.
- [07:42]
Carol Massar
Well, that drinking game made its way to our makeup room where they actually said tariffs would be another one where it would put you on the floor because we say it so much. Hey, one thing I want to ask you. We had a couple of analysts cut their price targets on FedEx today. One downgrade. I'm looking at Market Watch who actually noted that Loop Capital downgrade the stock to sell from hold due to the company's vulnerability to an economic downturn. What they said is with economists ratcheting up US recession risk, be aware that FedEx is a really bad recession stock because thin express margins amplify the earnings hit whenever there's pressure on the top line. It's not one you want to own. If things go south, your own analysis. If things go south, you know, there's uncertainty and then there's recession, which is a recession problematic for FedEx if indeed that happens.
- [08:28]
Lee Klaskow
Well, we don't do buy, hold, sell. No, I know, I know. So, so just, just, just that, you know, the probability of a recession I think on the Bloomberg terminal is 25% and that's up from a low of 20%. So the, the probability has increased, but it's still extremely low. The US consumer is, has been resilient. I tend not to bet against the US consumer. I am concerned that they, maybe they'll spend less but, but I would never really bet against them. And when you're looking at FedEx as a company, they, they are finally in the midst of a transformation that was well overdue. And I think once they come out of this and there's a better backdrop, the benefits to the transformation and the cost cutting that they've been doing is really going to create a more flexible, more productive and more profitable network.
- [09:16]
Carol Massar
Right.
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Lee Klaskow
So I think, I think, you know, FedEx is a very interesting name not in the near term because they're still trying to figure things out. But look, looking past the noise of.
- [09:27]
Carol Massar
Tariffs, Lee, we'd be remiss not to ask you about UPS. Just quickly 20 seconds. UPS is also down about 2.2% today. I know they're different models, different companies, but they do all work in the delivery space. What does this say about ups? Or does it say nothing in terms of what we got from FedEx?
- [09:43]
Lee Klaskow
So UPS sold their less than truckload business in 2021. So they don't have that, that, that, that larger exposure to the industrial economy as that FedEx does. And then also I would say that, you know, UPS is B2B exposure is around 30 to 35%. Don't quote me on that. It was around that in their U.S. domestic business. So it's not a, it's not a huge portion of their overall business. You know, B2C is more important for them right now. And I would say UPS is probably like two or three years ahead of FedEx in terms of restructuring itself to deal with the fact that, you know, right. E commerce growth is really going to drive their growth, not B2B.
- [10:24]
Carol Massar
All right. Good stuff as always. Thanks again for that doing double duty with us over the last 24 hours. Lee Klaskow is Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Transport logistics and Shipping Analyst, joining us from BI headquarters in Princeton, New Jersey.
- [10:37]
Tim Stenovec
You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [10:51]
Carol Massar
There was one story that caught our attention today, actually one of our producer Elizabeth pointed out because it just seemed to tie in so well with our next guest. AstraZeneca will invest two and a half billion dollars in a new research center in Beijing in a major show of commitment to China just months after that company's top executive there was detained by authorities. We know it is so complicated doing business globally today. Our next guest has separate supply chains for China and Asia and their Western clients, which, safe to say, comes in pretty handy right now. Here to talk about that and more is Siemens healthineers Chief Financial Officer Johan Schmitz, who is featured in this Sunday's Bloomb CFO Briefing Newsletter. Yaham joins us from Munich, Germany, along with our own Nina Trentman. She's here in our studio. She's senior editor at Bloomberg News, author of the CFO Briefing Newsletter, which you can sign up for@Bloomberg.com CFO briefing. Johan, great to have you here with us. There's a lot to talk about. I do want to start with supply chains because I feel like that and tariffs and globalization is so much front and center right now. Talk to us about how you manage it, build it, think about it and how what you have today came together.
- [12:00]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah.
- [12:01]
Johan Schmitz
Thank you very much for having me. When I think about our global value add footprint, we have, as you rightfully said in the beginning, we have to say a two side, so to say two side strategy. We manufacture and develop everything for China and for the China block out of China and we manufacture and develop everything else in the also in the Western world. That means we have relatively detached two value chains in place. This is currently, I would say for the current situation, kind of a comfortable setup because we are not affected, so to say too much by the geopolitical or tariff discussion between so far between the United States and China. And when we look at our global footprint in the Western world, 25% of our employees are in the United States. We have four segments. Two of the segments are headquartered of the United States. Our 17,000 total employees, 17,000, as I said, 25% are in the United States. So we are well spread across the world and this gives us decent resilience, but it does not make us immune against global trade wars. And I wanted to say this.
- [13:33]
Carol Massar
Yeah. To follow up on that, Jochen, thanks for joining us. Talk to us about the Trump tariffs.
- [13:39]
Josh Weinstein
Of course, a lot of moving parts, but how do you think about those.
- [13:43]
Carol Massar
And could there be an impact on your business given that you have a strong US Footprint?
- [13:49]
Johan Schmitz
I mean first of all, when we look at what is currently in place, the Mexico, Canada and China, additional tariffs, as I said, China is not a major topic for us because latest since Trump 1.0 we change our supply chains so that they are detached from each other. We have I would say some impact from some sub supply from Mexico into the United States. For one of our to headquartered business in the United States, our wearing business at the west coast, this is I would say the major impact. But it's not a huge topic. It's so far a small topic. Canada, US So far not a big topic for us.
- [14:35]
Josh Weinstein
And to follow up on that, have.
- [14:37]
Carol Massar
You had any sort of conversations with the administration to see if you could be exempt from any tariffs? I know that sort of Beijing, for example, in its retaliatory tariffs on US Goods has excluded health care.
- [14:52]
Johan Schmitz
Yeah, I mean obviously we are trying to get health care and together with other companies in the healthcare sector out of or exempt from tariffs. I think that makes a lot of sense because when you think about tariffs, what do they do? They will limit flow of products and services across the world on the one hand, but they also will limit flow of knowledge and that is to the detriment of patients. Therefore, when you look at comparable situations like sanctions or others, normally healthcare gets excluded over time and I'm hopeful that this will also get into play in in terrorists, hopefully sooner than later.
- [15:40]
Tim Stenovec
Jom, how do you think about this administration, this president versus other world leaders that you've dealt with? How is he different to deal with? How is this administration different to deal with?
- [15:52]
Johan Schmitz
Yeah, I mean normally to be honest, when we get in the United States. We do not have a lot of business with government because the health care system in the United States is primarily a private, a private system. Therefore, when we look at changes in administration in the United States, the impact in general on our business, on the health care markets are for us relatively limited. And our current assumption as we see it is also with regard to the US Market. We don't see significant disruption at the horizon in this regard. Obviously, when we look at the Trump administration, it's, it's from its, it's not a surprise what is happening. It was clear, it was also mentioned in the campaign that things like this might happen from a strategic standpoint. We need to stay flexible because we cannot plan for everything. There will be surprises and we need to try to deal with this as, as rapidly as possible.
- [17:05]
Carol Massar
I am curious, you know, there was a story out today actually from Dow Jones that talked about how you guys are setting up two cancer research centers in Alberta, Canada, focusing on oncology training and artificial intelligence and machine learning. And I guess what I want to ask you is do you see because it does feel like for so long or the last couple of months we talked about American experience exceptionalism, that doing so well, growth and still investment coming in. But I do wonder, do you think that the US As a result of this administration and the policies that are coming out is potentially putting an end to that exceptionalism and maybe cutting the US off from collaborations, whether it might be with your company or with health care in general or research, whether it's AI, whether it's in health care and so on.
- [17:53]
Johan Schmitz
My personal opinion is a clear answer is no, this will happen. From my standpoint, we also do not see this currently. First of all, we are a huge company in the United States. As I said, we have two of our segments in the United States. We have more than 17,000 employees in the United States. We run here all of the United States by far most successful global radiation therapy company in the world variant. And we have a very, very strong lab diagnostic business out of Territorial New York. So I think we are very US Ish also like we are very European, like we are very Chinese. We are really a global company with a very well spread global footprint. And I can't imagine that the United States will harm their people to that extent that they cut off research in health care and really do crazy things in this regard. Because as I said in the beginning, this will all ultimately would go to the detriment of patients. And that will not.
- [19:06]
Carol Massar
I can't believe so just to clarify, this idea of American exceptionalism being done, being gone dead, if you will. You don't agree with that?
- [19:16]
Johan Schmitz
Yeah, I don't agree with.
- [19:18]
Carol Massar
To follow up, Johan, you're based in Germany. A fair amount of your value creation is there, but only a fair, Only I think 45% of your revenue comes from there. Talk to us a little bit about the change in government that we're expecting and then how far you're seeing that potentially improving competitiveness in Germany. A topic that you and I have.
- [19:39]
Josh Weinstein
Talked about in the past.
- [19:42]
Johan Schmitz
Yeah, I mean, as you rightfully said, the German market per se is for us is not unimportant, but it's not super, super critical. It's 4 to 5% of revenue. But when we look at Germany as a country, I think we need to have a change in how we administer this country. I think the first steps we have seen here are promising. There were at least decision making, pragmatic decision making. The supposed to be new government establish itself. I call it a very nice credit line of 1,000 billion euros. And, but this is, I would say, very comfortable to have on the one hand. On the other hand, it does not release this government from making tough decisions on. Lean on leaning up the bureaucracy in the country and reformatting, so to say the social systems. Because otherwise also this nice investment program will not find its way or will not pave the way to sustainable growth.
- [20:59]
Josh Weinstein
So that means you will hold off.
- [21:01]
Carol Massar
For now with new investment decisions for Germany or sort of. What's your take on that?
- [21:06]
Johan Schmitz
No, that's, that's not the case. I mean for us we have significant value add in Germany. We see the circumstances for us in Germany as a value add location still very positive. We have maybe also because of the industry, we get very good people. The education system is still attractive to what we need. And I think we are ongoing. We will continue to invest. We have invested in the last three to four years, about three to five years, about 650 million euros. A billion euros in Germany. And this is a significant.
- [21:53]
Carol Massar
30 seconds, very quickly on John. I wonder what's the biggest kind of interesting trend disruption that's going on in your industry right now. And I do have to ask you to be very quick.
- [22:04]
Johan Schmitz
Hmm. I think our industry is not an industry which is driven by disruption because it's about the head, I would say the heads of patients. Obviously I will play a constantly more important role and those who do not build their case on, I will not succeed.
- [22:25]
Carol Massar
Well, super interesting and so appreciate your time. We covered so much ground. Johan Schmitz, CFO of Siemens healthineers and of course, our Nina Tretman, senior editor at Bloomberg News. Be sure to check out the CFO Briefing newsletter. A new one comes out on Sunday, pinpointing the genetic changes that predispose us to disease identifying the roots of mental illness, treating congenital anomalies even before birth. At Boston Children's Hospital, we're investing in children's health today to ensure the well being of adults tomorrow. As home to the world's largest pediatric research enterprise and more than 260 specialty programs, Boston Children's is where the world comes for answers.
- [23:06]
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- [24:09]
Lee Klaskow
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Carol Massar
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Lee Klaskow
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Carol Massar
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Lee Klaskow
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Carol Massar
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Carol Massar
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- [24:55]
Josh Weinstein
This.
- [24:55]
Tim Stenovec
Is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [25:13]
Carol Massar
Well, Carnival reported earnings and the stock at one point sold off more than 6%. On the news. This after a key quarter quarterly earnings forecast trailed estimates, adding to worries that a travel slowdown has spread to even the most robust corner of the market. However, Carnival did boost full year profit expectations, beating Wall Street's view, suggesting any slowdown may prove transitory. I do want to point out too, the stock is down about 15% so far here in 2025. Let's get some context and more detail around the company's quarterly update. Great to have back with us, Josh Weinstein. He's president, CEO and chief climate officer of Carnival Corporation and he joins us from Carnival headquarters in Miami. Josh, great to be talking with you. How are you?
- [25:55]
Josh Weinstein
I'm very well, thank you. How are you doing?
- [25:58]
Carol Massar
Doing okay. Trying to keep up with everything that's coming at us on a daily basis. And I kind of want to start there because there is a lot coming at anyone who's running a big company like yours today, whether it's out of Washington, whether it's out of how the consumer is feeling. How would you describe the cruise business and how it compares from your last quarterly update? What has changed at all? Because I know you have been very optimistic and it seems like you're still optimistic about the business based on the releases.
- [26:26]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So the thing that's changed from December to today is, well, we just completed our first quarter and instead of yields being up 4.7%, which is what we guided to, they were up 7.3%. And so, so clearly things went very, very well in the first quarter. Consumers love to cruise and we've got eight brands that are purposely tied to particular demographics, particular national markets. And it serves us very, very well. And so what we see is enough strength in that first quarter that we can raise our yields for the year, for our, for our full year guidance. And that's basically saying that we're, we're content to keep 4% plus yields for the remaining 3/4 of the year, despite the fact that there is, you know, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, which certainly wasn't on the radar when we came up with our guidance to begin with in December.
- [27:22]
Carol Massar
And yet investors seem to be at least initially disappointed over your second quarter EBITDA forecast. Your forecast was 1.32 billion in the second quarter. Analysts had expected 1.35 billion. Should they be disappointed?
- [27:38]
Josh Weinstein
You know what, I guess I'll answer by saying our December guidance was basically saying we're going to be about was it a buck 70, give or take for the year on EPS. We just came out with guidance at buck 83. We outperformed on revenue yields onboard. Onboard trends are really, really healthy with our, with our consumers. So I would argue that we should be higher than where we were in December since our results are better than where we were in December. But that's really up to, up to the street. Our job is to deliver and hopefully over deliver, which is what we did in the first quarter.
- [28:11]
Tim Stenovec
So, Josh, let's talk a little bit more about that consumer because in the press release you noted that Carnival is not completely immune from heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility. And you're still taking up earnings expectations for the year. You remain on track to have another stellar year across the entire brand of cruises. Why are we hearing then from airlines that consumers are pulling back? Why are we not seeing that in your business?
- [28:37]
Josh Weinstein
Well, I think there's a couple of things to, to, to differentiate. First of all, airlines aren't just for holidays. Airlines are business travel. It is holidays. It's conferences, it's government travel. We are really holidays. We are, we are vacation. So, so we're in a, we're in a different bucket than where, than where airlines are. You know, we came in to 2025, the best book position we've ever been in at higher prices. We came out at the end of the first quarter still being in line with, with record occupancy percentage and prices still nicely higher. We, we're, we're 80% booked for the year. And so we have relatively limited inventory to sell when it comes to 2025. At the same time, our guests and our brands aren't just, just focused on in year. You know, we just came out of the first quarter of the wave period, which is considered the traditional big push for, for selling. And we set a record for the most volume we've ever done during wave for future years out. So people aren't just thinking about the short term, they're thinking about the long term, which is exactly what we're doing as a company.
- [29:42]
Tim Stenovec
But are you noticing any change in the tone of the bookings, the pace of the bookings, or perhaps even people canceling because of their own uncertainty? I understand there's this difference between discretionary spend and, and business spend. But after all, discretionary is discretionary and that's often the first thing to go if people are feeling uncertain.
- [29:58]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah, you know, we haven't seen any noticeable change in trends on cancellations. Certainly as we mentioned on the call, you know, there were ups and downs over the first quarter. There's ups and downs all the time. But we got through our period exactly at pretty much the highest point that you can get at, at least for us, in our history. And we feel, we feel good about the position that that puts us in. Like I said, onboard spending, you know, is up about 10% year over year in the first quarter. That's an acceleration of year over year performance versus where we were in the fourth quarter. And at least into the first couple of weeks of March with cruises that have ended, we really haven't seen a slowdown in that consumer behavior, that onboard spending. And so, you know, at the end of the day, people in good times and bad times, they take holiday, they take a break, they need a break. You could argue in bad times, they need that break even more than they do in the good times. And that's what cruising is, it's a break. It's a way to relax, to get away from things, enjoy time with friends and family. That's what people pay for now. And when you line up cruise versus other vacation alternatives, frustrating as it is for me as a CEO of a cruise company, we're a great value. And the fact is, if people are getting concerned, if there's uncertainty, if there's noise in the background, people are searching for more value for their money. And that's exactly what we do. So it plays very well into our strength.
- [31:21]
Carol Massar
So just for the record, I could go on a cruise for about a month right now because I need a break. But having love to have you.
- [31:28]
Josh Weinstein
We'd love to have you.
- [31:29]
Carol Massar
Having said that, what about in terms of pricing? Are you guys able to maintain pricing? Nothing changing in that regard either for the first quarter or even for the outlook for the second quarter?
- [31:41]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah, you know, so, so like I said, the first quarter, you know, our yields year over year were up over 7% and over a two year period, we're talking about 24% higher yields for the first quarter. When we look at the rest of the year, QS2 through 4, we're projecting a little bit over 4% yield improvement year over year for that, for that nine month period, remainder of the year. So, you know, look, it's hard going, right? It's not like anything is easy. And we got to work hard. Our brands work hard to make that become a reality. And they do it through good revenue management techniques, through the great advertising that they're doing, and then ultimately delivering onboard experiences that people want to pay for. And then they get off of our ships and they tell their friends and family how amazing it is and we get more.
- [32:27]
Carol Massar
Hey, one of the things we wanted to ask you is something that in late February, the US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, he made some comments about how U. S Based cruise companies, Josh. Should be paying taxes even on ships that are registered abroad. We saw your stock, along with everybody in the major cruise space, sell off on his words. Even though analysts indicated the worry may be overblown, they said, we've heard this before over the years. Is it overblown? Are you talking with the Trump administration about this? And if there was a US Registration change, what would that mean for you guys?
- [33:00]
Josh Weinstein
So clearly we're operating in the confines of US Law as well we should. Shipping, international shipping is based on very specific tax regimes that are set up in the US and all over the world. And effectively it's based on reciprocity. So we feel like we're in a good place. We're doing what we should be doing. Having said that, anything out of the administration, including Secretary Lutnick, we certainly take seriously and we're working hard to understand what the concerns are and how we can address them, if any. There's really nothing, there's nothing to report on from my perspective as far as, you know, what that means or where things could be going. But we'll, we'll, we'll stay on our guard and do whatever we need to do to, to make sure we're staying on the right side of, of policy.
- [33:45]
Tim Stenovec
Josh, why don't you register in the US Is it regulatory reasons? Is it tax reasons? Is it labor reasons? Is it all of the above? Why don't you register in the U.S.
- [33:57]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah, it's just not that simple. You don't just take a ship and all of a sudden you can't just switch to US Registry. It's just not that simple. And really, it's a, it's a, it's a people to go to school for classes for this, right. About international shipping and what, what it means, how it works. And it's been in place for much longer than I've been alive. And so, you know, we could, we could do a separate session on that. But, but suffice it to say, regime, it's a regime that is, that is well founded and it's where we are right now.
- [34:29]
Carol Massar
All right, so it's not something that we should think about. I mean, it can be done though, right?
- [34:35]
Josh Weinstein
What is the it in terms of.
- [34:38]
Carol Massar
Registering in the United States.
- [34:40]
Josh Weinstein
It's honestly not that simple. Based on how US Law works. It's just not that simple.
- [34:45]
Carol Massar
Okay, would that be a conversation though then, to have with the Trump administration, Josh, and say, listen, guys, if it was simpler, I mean, they're all about making things simpler, right? Efficient. Is there a conversation to be had?
- [34:58]
Josh Weinstein
We're happy to talk to the administration, truly.
- [35:00]
Carol Massar
Okay. Okay. Hey, listen, one of the things we wanted to talk to you about in a big way, and I've seen it firsthand, is the island destinations that you guys have. And it seems to be a continued move for you guys in Expansion. You open Celebration Key this July. This is in Grand Bahama Island. How do these island destinations, We've talked to you about it, but it continues to be something we find really interesting. How does it fit into the North American cruise strategy and how important it is? I always think about to the top line in the profitability picture.
- [35:30]
Josh Weinstein
Yeah. So, so for us, what we're doing with Celebration Key, which opens in July, it's a bit of a first for us. Even though we have a wonderful footprint around the Caribbean, we've really, we've, we've built and, and created these destinations really as a service to our brands and something that's supportive of and, and really supplemental to what brands are doing and leading with, with the cruise experience that makes them so, so loved. What we're doing with Celebration Key, which doesn't even exist yet, and yet it's captivated the audience and captivated the imagination of, of Carnival cruisers and others, is we want to also lead with destination as a driver of consideration of a driver for people saying I need to go on Carnival Cruise Line because I'll get to go to Celebration Key or because I'll get to go to Relax Away Half Moon Key because it's the only way to get there. And so we believe that there's a tremendous amount of untapped value there in revenue generation, as well as the fact that these destinations are built close to the United States, hence we consume less fuel in order to get there, which saves money, is obviously good for the planet.
- [36:37]
Carol Massar
Hey, listen, 20 seconds left here. What is your most popular destination? Where do most people want to go and what kind of trip?
- [36:44]
Josh Weinstein
Well, we carry 13 million people last year. They want, they want to go to a lot of places. I'd say if you're going to ask me what's my top that I've ever been to, I got to say, you got to go on a cruise to Alaska and you got to go with Princess Holland America or Carnival because they do it in an amazing way. And Cunard for those who are looking for the for the luxury end. But if you want to see the great state, the only way to do it is with a great brand that can take you on both sea and with our land experiences because we've got hotels and motor coaches and glass domed rail cars and you name it, we got it up in Alaska.
- [37:14]
Carol Massar
I just want to go somewhere where I get a cocktail with like a little umbrella in it. I just I'm that we also serve.
- [37:19]
Josh Weinstein
Cocktails with umbrellas when we go to Alaska.
- [37:21]
Carol Massar
Josh, thank you so much. Always appreciate the time you give us. Be well, be well. Josh Weinstein, President CEO and Chief Climate Officer of Carnival Corporation, joining us from Carnival's headquarters in Miami.
- [37:32]
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- [38:32]
Lee Klaskow
Jacob this is Jacob Goldstein from what's yous Problem?
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Carol Massar
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Lee Klaskow
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Carol Massar
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- [39:08]
Jeremy Jensen
All linked and talking to each other.
- [39:10]
Carol Massar
Check out Odoo at o d o o.com that's o d o o.com in.
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- [39:48]
Carol Massar
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Aut with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [40:01]
Tim Stenovec
Well, we spent a lot of time this week talking about Nvidia gtc. It's the annual developers event in San Jose. It's been dubbed the super bowl of AI. Aronian King writes today that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's presentation there was all about how to get a return on the expensive gear being installed now. And he spent a good rest of the week reinforcing his message designed to counter increasing concerns that the sustainability of spending and encourage executives in the broader economy to join his vision for the future. One executive who was there was Antonio Neri, the President and CEO of hp. Antonio joins us from HP headquarters in Spring, Texas. Antonio, good to see you. Welcome back to the program. You spoke with Jensen earlier this week at the event. What was your big takeaway? What did you learn? Because investors certainly weren't as impressed as they have been in the past couple of years.
- [40:53]
Antonio Neri
Well, good afternoon and thank you for having me back. It was a fantastic event. Obviously you can look at from many different perspective. Number one, the innovation front. I have to tell you, I never seen such innovation at the speed that we are all experiencing. You know, two years ago we were talking about the boom of generative AI. Now we're talking about physical AI, robotics and what can do for manufacturing in other industries. On the other hand, obviously you talk about what this can do for the enterprise and enterprise what I see particularly in the last 90 days or 180 days is an accelerational deployment because they all realize that AI has a tremendous potential to improve productivity, to improve business processes and deliver value to each of the businesses and last but not least, obviously what they can do for society. And if you think about the opportunity to address some of the societal challenges, whether it's finding new cures through, you know, molecular docking research or weather forecasting and many other type of use cases is all there. Now we have to see it, we have to build it and we need to see it through the benefit of it over a period of time that people need to, to live with.
- [42:11]
Tim Stenovec
Well, we also heard Antonio, this promise of physical AI, that was one of the big themes that emerged. And look, I'm in San Francisco right now, so I get to see the waymos driving around, a little peek into the future. But from your perch at hp, what's this? What's the future that you see? What's the future that you envision with physical AI?
- [42:33]
Antonio Neri
Well, I see a world where basically we can remove the humans that they are in the loop and be on the loop, where some of these physical AI, robotics and other type of applications can do the basic task that were totally automated, where we can use ourselves, the humans for other more interesting and value added tasks. And that will drive a level of productivity we haven't seen before. And that applies to every industry. You talk about, about autonomous cars. Obviously that that includes a lot of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other techniques. But when I think about the other industries, the potential is enormous. Now not everything will be applicable, but I think, you know, we see a world where I will be embedded in everything we do.
- [43:24]
Carol Massar
One of the things I wanted to follow up on, you know, and you guys made, is actually an announcement kind of off of this event about you and Nvidia coming up with some new enterprise AI solutions working on this together. Antonio, what I wanted to follow up on though, you said we have to build it, we have to see it and to see what the payoff really is. That's what like the last couple of years, right, have been about this build out this spend. And we continue to see partnerships to continue the spend. But how long do you think it will be until companies really have an idea of what payoff they get for their investment?
- [43:59]
Antonio Neri
Well, look, I mean I see a. Today in our own company, we deploy AI in many of our business processes across finance, digital marketing, customer service, forecast planning and the like. And even on the R and D side, you know, our level of productivity in our software development process has improved by 30%. So the learning here is that first of all, it takes time to build infrastructure. But for enterprise is not a big of a lift from an infrastructure perspective. I can tell you in my own company, I have only a couple of hundred GPUs and it's plenty for what I need to do compared to the service providers, the model builders, that many tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands for that matter, to be these large language models which are very sophisticated from what I call generative to agentic to Reasoning and eventually these, you know, models that will do the robotics side, the physical AI. But inside the enterprise we already see the benefits and I spend more than 50% of my time talking to customers and they are going from the experimental phase to more deployment side. And that's why the last quarter we saw a 40% increase on a year over year basis. The demand for enterprise AI solutions and obviously for us was the deep partnership with Nvidia where we took their software stack. The famous CUDA environment with the names and agentic approaches included only partners with our infrastructure and our own software in the cloud. And there is all about time to value. Basically we made this so simple. 3 clicks less than 30 seconds, you can deploy an environment for your developers to rag or fine tune a model with your data or to deploy inferencing. And that's where the acceleration is going to come. The simplicity of deployment with the use cases that can return that investment very, very quickly.
- [45:53]
Carol Massar
It's all just kind of really, really cool stuff and something we think about so much it's happening now, but really kind of what the future means and the impact. I do want to ask you though about today's environment. There's so much coming at CEOs, the C suite of companies, a lot of stuff out of Washington and we continue to watch the spending when it comes to it. T given some of the recession fears that are out there, what has your conversations with CEOs revealed on the spending environment? Any signs of pullback, any signs that a recession might be coming? What, what color can you give us about that?
- [46:31]
Antonio Neri
Well, up to our Q1, which ended on January 31st, the demand has been very strong. In fact, if you look at our own demand for a moment for our networking business, our hybrid cloud business and our AI business, which are the three pillars of our company, we saw double digits, order growth, demand for every solution that we have in the available today in the market. Now that said, you know, the conversation today in the market about tariffs, some of the geopolitical tension, the work that the United States do into controlled spend obviously is causing a little bit of uncertainty. But I do believe it is one of those areas where spend will be protected because ultimately, whether you think about positioning yourself for the next wave or the supply chain through digitization and automation, as you rebalance the supply chain, what it makes sense for you or what do you think about, you know, using your data to your advantage as a great example, using AI or whether it's to simplify your process businesses, it will require it and that's why I continue to be positive about the spend of it as we think about the next few years because it will grow in my mind faster than gdp.
- [47:49]
Carol Massar
All right. We're going to have to leave it there. Antonio, thank you so much for giving us some time. We greatly appreciate it. Our thanks to Antonio Neri. He's president CEO of hp. Of course, as you know, stock right now in today's session just down about 1.3%, has had a lot of pressure on it though this year down about 25% here in 2025. Company did report earnings back in March, March 7th earlier this month. And there were some concerns about the weak profit outlook. But you can certainly read a little bit more if you want@bloomberg.com and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal.
- [48:20]
Tim Stenovec
You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.
- [48:34]
Carol Massar
We have talked about some big global macro issues. We've talked to a lot of folks in the C suite here on Business Week on this Friday edition. We've talked a lot about supply chains. And there is some news in the complicated, as you know, but exciting world of supply chains today. We love to follow supply chains logistics. US Officials, Tim talked about this earlier, have asked Italian producers if they can help secure egg supplies amid shortages and upcoming holidays and including Eastern Passover. I don't know about you, Tim, but I grew up, you know, taking eggs and dyeing them and coloring them and like it's an important part of the holiday.
- [49:06]
Tim Stenovec
Yeah. We'll see if they're plastic this year or if they're real eggs. Also next week, the supplier chain relationships of dollar tree will be in focus when the company reports earnings. Supply chains coming under increased focus given the tariff back and forth. The White house, remember, fresh U.S. tariffs are set to land on April 2nd. Jeremy Jensen watches supply chains closely. He's managing director of supply chain finance at Wells Fargo. He joins us from Atlanta. Jeremy, I want to start big picture. Somebody might hear supply chain finance and Wells Fargo and think what the heck is Wells Fargo doing with supply chains? So what do you and your team do?
- [49:40]
Jeremy Jensen
Yeah, sure. Thanks. And thanks for having me, guys. It's a pleasure to be here. So quite simply, we provide working capital and supply chain financing to Wells Fargo commercial clients. We establish traditional supply chain financing programs between buyers and their suppliers. And we also provide standby letters of credit, import export letters of credit and very traditional trade finance Type products.
- [50:07]
Carol Massar
So interesting. All right, so tell us what you are seeing in particular when it comes to the supply chain narrative. We've talked a lot about it just in today's edition because we've been talking to folks from the C suite who are dealing with some of those issues. And so what are you seeing? Our company making changes. Were they already, from our understanding, they were already making changes coming off of COVID But what can you tell us in terms of the, the macro and the narrative here?
- [50:34]
Jeremy Jensen
Yeah, so thanks Carol. I think first thing I'd like to say is fundamentally the supply chain itself logistically remains very healthy. When you look at key indicators, shipping costs, port congestion, port job vacancies, inventory to sales ratios, all those dials in the cockpit are still at a, at a really nice level and to your point, somewhat at pre Covid levels. But the US Trade policy, it could remain dynamic for quite some time. And how are businesses reacting to this? Many management teams that, that you know, we speak to are taking somewhat of a wait and see posture publicly, but behind the scenes in closed doors, they're working out many different scenarios. As you also mentioned, this is not the first time our clients have been here in 2018 and 2019 with, with tariffs that came in at that time. They, they built some playbooks. Right. So, so they have a pretty good roadmap on how, on how to navigate this.
- [51:40]
Tim Stenovec
Is this different though, Jeremy, because we're sort of going global or the Trump administration seems to be going global. We'll kind of find out all the details on April 2nd. Yeah, but is this a little different?
- [51:54]
Jeremy Jensen
It's a little too soon to tell from my perspective. I don't want to speculate but, but certainly the discussions are very similar.
- [52:03]
Carol Massar
Right.
- [52:03]
Jeremy Jensen
And our clients, our clients do have a pretty strong playbook and a pretty strong roadmap on how to handle this. Perhaps it's a two way share between the supplier and the importer. Perhaps it's a three way share between the supplier, the importer and the customer. We're seeing all of those, all of those strategies play out again behind closed doors and even publicly.
- [52:30]
Johan Schmitz
Right.
- [52:30]
Jeremy Jensen
You're starting to see some companies come out and talk about the impacts that it could have on, on their costs for the year or maybe give some glimmer of how they may pass that through on to the consumer.
- [52:42]
Carol Massar
Yeah, it's certainly important issues as we continue to track all of the companies, certainly the publicly held and something that we continue to look for when they are reporting earnings and will continue to do so. What they have to say about it. Hey, listen, thank you so much, Jeremy. Important angle, certainly one that we're covering here at Bloomberg. Jeremy Janssen, as we mentioned, he watches supply chains very closely, managing director of supply chain finance over at Wells Fargo, joining us from Atlanta on this Friday. I'm driving in my car. How about you let me drive? Oh, no, no, no, no.
- [53:13]
Josh Weinstein
This is not a toy.
- [53:14]
Johan Schmitz
Who's going to drive you home?
- [53:16]
Antonio Neri
Honey, please, I'll do the driving.
- [53:18]
Carol Massar
Drive on. I want to drive. It's the question that drives us.
- [53:28]
Tim Stenovec
This is the drive to the clothes.
- [53:30]
Carol Massar
That funky music will drive us till.
- [53:32]
Tim Stenovec
The dawn on Bloomberg Radio.
- [53:34]
Carol Massar
All right, everybody, coming up on 18 minutes to go to wrap up the trade. We are definitely holding on to our better levels of the session. We were down a lot more earlier on. You just heard Charlie and Bill Maloney breaking it all down. We'll see if it holds. Whether or not we see some selling into the close here. We do have some expirations and so in terms of options, so whether or not that will be a factor, but nonetheless holding on some gains. So let's get to it. It's been another full week, to say the least. Marta Norton is chief investment strategist at Empower. Empower joining us from Chicago. Hey, Marta, good to have you here with Tim and myself. We are so familiar with your company. You guys administer the Bloomberg 401k plan. We'd like to be transparent.
- [54:18]
Tim Stenovec
You talk, Carol, you've been talking a lot about your 401k this week.
- [54:21]
Carol Massar
It's been kind of terrifying, you know, and I have to be honest with you, I was looking at making some, some changes a little while ago because we've all been talking about the European markets doing so much better. You guys, though, are the second largest retirement plan provider in the United States. Talk to us about what your role is and what you see to get an idea of what's on the minds of investors and what's going on.
- [54:43]
Marta Norton
Yeah, sure. So my role at Empower, and of course Empower has that retirement business. It also has a wealth business. And so my goal is to really formulate that markets and economics point of view across both our retirement business, our wealth business, and provide that perspective to our clients and to financial media. And I think one of the things that of course is top of mind and you've kind of alluded to it already, is this idea of whether we're going to see some sort of capitulation in how investors are positioned. And of course that ever important retirement investor and I think at this point, you know, we've had that technical correction in the s and P500, and I think you see a little bit of pickup of nerves, I guess I would say, in the retirement space, but not massive shifts in terms of how people are positioned. So you see some movement on the margin, but nothing that would suggest that investors are, you know, frantically moving things around in their retirement accounts.
- [55:40]
Tim Stenovec
Marta, it looks like in the notes that our producer Paul Brennan sent us, you, you argue that the market's not fully understanding the extent of, of tariffs. What do you mean by that?
- [55:50]
Marta Norton
Well, you know, and this is we're doing scenario analysis here, of course, and the future is uncertain. There's a range of outcomes here. But I think when you take a look at what the tariffs could look like, you know, immediately, you know, in 2025, as we saw those initial forays with, with Canada and Mexico, the general narrative was that those were largely negotiating tactics. And I think there's good reason to think that there's a certain level of negotiation when it comes to a lot of this tariff talk. But when you look at the broader picture of what President Trump has talked about, both on the campaign trail and more recently when it comes to tariffs, he's focusing on raising revenue for the federal government. He talks about establishing a US Manufacturing base. He talks about trade deficit. And I think as you look at those objectives, you have to entertain the notion that tariffs could be both broad based and long lasting. And the market, I think, has begun to grapple with that idea. But I don't know if it's a really common full force when you think about what that impact could be both on the cost, you know, on companies, businesses, and then potentially from a retaliatory perspective on the revenue. And I say that especially because where we look at where valuations are, earnings expectations, it just doesn't look like there's been a massive recalibration.
- [57:07]
Carol Massar
Can I ask you, is it really hard to figure out what's next for the markets? I mean, even Bill Dudley, formerly of the New York Fed, was kind of saying it's really hard for the Fed, Fed, the US Central bank to kind of figure out the outlook right now, kind of flying blind at this point. So it's kind of hard right now, isn't it? I mean, I feel like we could go, we could either really recover if certain policies come out of Washington that will be really supportive to business and to the markets and to investors. And then there are policies that if they stick, will not be how difficult Is it to predict right now?
- [57:46]
Marta Norton
Well, I think if there was one word, and of course I didn't do kind of a word count with Powell's comments, but if there was one word that jumped out over and over again, it was that theme of uncertainty. So we heard that from Powell as he talked about, you know, certainly there was a directionality in the summary of economic projections. Growth coming down, unemployment edging up, inflation edging up, at least for 2025. So you had that directionality, but there was this real sense of uncertainty there. And then you see, see that in the economic Policy Uncertainty Index. You see it in consumer sentiment. You have a little bit of a read from businesses in that regard. So I think there's really been, you know, coming out of Washington, this fiscal directional switch on a lot of different policies from regulation to, you know, taxes to immigration, and then within trade, of course, maybe not a directional shift, but a magnitude shift. And so trying to understand how that plays out and what the market impact implications are, I think is pretty meaningful. Now, I think as we look back at kind of where are we starting from a foundational level, there's a few things we know. We know the economy is cooling, but is still generally strong. And we know valuations are high. So that gives us a little bit of sense as to how to take everything in. But yeah, you're right. I think it's maybe trickier than usual.
- [59:02]
Tim Stenovec
Well, what would change your mind? Like, what would make you less cautious? Because you do seem cautious. You say this isn't necessarily a buy the dip moment unless investors were on the sidelines with, you know, overweight cash or they were, you know, underexposed to equities is perhaps another way to say it. What would make you change your mind and say, okay, now I'm feeling more comfortable about getting into this market?
- [59:23]
Marta Norton
Well, there's a few things. I think if we had greater certainty on the policy front as it comes to tariffs, I think that would be helpful. I think also if we were to see valuations look a little bit more attractive sometimes. I think people focus a lot on price movement to determine, you know, those buy the dip moments. But I think you really want to look beyond price movement to where valuations actually sit. And as you get those on your side, then you can have a little bit more of a margin of safety and expect maybe a better, you know, three year outlook when it comes to returns. So having valuations on your side, getting clarity on a policy standpoint, I think that would help. But I'm not, you know, as I certainly am cautious. But I want to clarify that I'm not necessarily calling for, you know, a recession in that and that ilk. I think that we can see a growth slowdown certainly as uncertainty picks up alongside the fact that we were already seeing some cooling in the market. But I don't know if that would necessarily tip us into a recession. So I think there's, there's news that we have to navigate, but I don't know if we should put our head in our hands and cry in a corner.
- [60:28]
Carol Massar
All right, we're going to have to leave it there. Hey, listen, thank you so much. I'm glad to hear that.
- [60:33]
Tim Stenovec
Or have no crying yet.
- [60:35]
Carol Massar
I have a glass of wine or two on the weekend. Marta Norton, she's chief Investment Strategist at Empower, joining us from Chicago. Marta, thanks so much.
- [60:43]
Tim Stenovec
This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn and the Bloomberg Business app.
- [61:00]
Lee Klaskow
You can also watch us live Every.
- [61:01]
Tim Stenovec
Weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
- [61:13]
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Carol Massar
Don't let them down.
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