Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages But Sets Conditions for Peace

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Businessweek

Episode: Hamas Agrees to Release Hostages But Sets Conditions for Peace
Date: October 3, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stanweck

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Overview

This episode focuses on two major threads shaping the global and U.S. economic landscape: the developing geopolitical situation in Israel and Gaza—particularly Hamas's conditional agreement to release hostages and its response to President Trump's 20-point peace plan—and a deep dive into the complex U.S. labor market from the perspectives of the Federal Reserve, LinkedIn, and the healthcare sector. Topical discussions include the effectiveness and implications of policy responses, labor demand and hiring trends, and the rapidly growing role of AI in the healthcare workforce.

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Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. Hamas, Hostages, and Peace Plan Diplomacy

[01:54 – 07:53]

• Hamas’s Offer and U.S. Pressure:
  Carol Massar introduces the episode’s top story: Hamas agreeing to release all Israeli hostages from the October 7th attack, while setting conditions on other aspects of President Trump’s detailed 20-point peace plan.
• Expert Analysis with Wayne Sanders (Bloomberg Intelligence, Defense Analyst):
  Sanders sees the move as a "big development, but again with caveats," emphasizing that Hamas is facing significant pressure from Trump’s Sunday deadline for compliance, with the threat of military escalation (“unleashing all hell”) (Wayne Sanders, 02:23).
• Regional Reactions and Geopolitics:
  The complexity of regional alliances is highlighted—UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain more favorable to Trump; Qatar, Oman, Kuwait on the fence. A key sticking point: "if Hamas is coming to the table, how is it going to be felt within the region from the Gulf states…" (Wayne Sanders, 03:32).
• Situation on the Ground:
  The hosts recall recent reports of ongoing violence in Gaza despite negotiations, underscoring the situation’s volatility.
• Israel’s Stance:
  Israel continues its military offensive until Hamas concedes to the full plan. Sanders compares the standoff to past deadlines, "You still saw Israel and Iran continuing to fire at each other right up until the last minute. So this is part of that." (Wayne Sanders, 04:55)
• President Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize
  Carol raises Trump’s public interest in the Nobel Prize, citing recent comments. Sanders says, "he brought that up… he almost made a flippant comment… but it was something that he did still bring up" (Wayne Sanders, 06:20).
• Enduring Peace Prospects?
  Sanders is skeptical about long-term peace: “There is so much history, so much of their cultures that have been tied to this for thousands of years… I have a hard time believing that they ever are going to completely want to be at peace with one another" (Wayne Sanders, 07:19).

Notable Quotes:

• Wayne Sanders: "I think the fact that they're doing anything at all at this point in time is good… we need to come to the table with more than just rhetoric." [02:23]
• Carol Massar: "President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is applying pressure to win it... Is this silly to even bring up?" [05:52]
• Wayne Sanders: "That might be in the back of the mind… Otherwise, I don't think he would have brought it up in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday." [06:20]

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2. U.S. Labor Market Trends and the Fed’s Perspective

[11:07 – 20:44]

a. The Federal Reserve’s Current Thinking

• Fed Governor Stephen Myron’s Approach:
  Myron asserts that services, and by extension housing, are the most “persistent and sticky” parts of inflation but expects price growth to ease as demand moderates, partly due to falls in the immigrant population: "removing so many undocumented aliens… will reduce demand for housing…" (Michael McKee, 12:33). Economists remain skeptical about scaling this theory nationally.
• Challenges in Housing Policy:
  Short-term rates’ limited impact on mortgage rates, and the fundamental issue of local zoning limits housing supply.
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s Signals:
  As Vice Chair, Jefferson’s cautious stance on inflation is interpreted as aligned with the rest of the board, and signals another potential rate cut this fall.
• Data Dependence and Uncertainty:
  The Fed, especially Myron, is described as “data dependent”—but with an emphasis on forward-looking forecasts rather than past data.
  "He stated dependent to the extent that the data back up what he thinks is going to happen… whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet." (Michael McKee, 16:12)
• White House Influence?
  Myron reports no direct pressure, but acknowledges an implicit “message.” "If mom told you a couple weeks ago to clean up your room and she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get the message without her having to say it" (Michael McKee, 17:15).

b. Labor Market Data Amid a Government Shutdown

• With federal jobs data unavailable due to the government shutdown, private sources (e.g., LinkedIn, ADP, ISM) become critical—though their estimates vary widely.
• The Fed now leans more on direct conversations with business leaders to form its economic view.
  "The Fed officials are leaning much more on their conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening..." (Michael McKee, 20:03)

c. The “Taylor Swift Indicator”

• Light moment: Michael McKee jokes about Taylor Swift’s new album being the most-streamed ever, "which is good for the economy," introducing humor amid serious discussion (20:20).

Notable Quotes:

• Michael McKee: "Most analysts of the housing industry say that the problem for housing is that there's not enough supply. And a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations in cities." [13:41]
• "The problem for housing... is not enough supply… the Fed controls short rates… but mortgage rates are more closely tied to long treasuries." (Michael McKee, 13:41)
• Michael McKee (on White House influence): "If mom told you a couple weeks ago to clean up your room and she's standing there staring at you..." [17:15]

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3. LinkedIn on Labor Market Slump

Guest: Karen Kimbrough, Chief Economist, LinkedIn
[21:01 – 26:17]

• “Hiring Recession” in the U.S.:
  Kimbrough describes a sluggish market: "We're still seeing hiring that's down last month, three and a half percent on the month and nearly 9% on the year… we're definitely looking at a hiring recession, if you will” [21:21].
• Employers “Job Hugging”:
  Employers are hoarding talent and not laying off much, yet aren’t rapidly hiring either—leading to less movement in the labor market.
• Labor Market Comparisons:
  Current hiring rates are as low as 2013, per LinkedIn data.
  "When we look at the hiring rate right now… as low as it's been since like 2013" [23:41].
• Demographic & Sector Disparities:
  • Entry-level workers, especially recent college grads, are struggling ("their hiring rate is twice as slow as everyone else's" [24:32]).
  • Strength in skilled trades (construction, electricians), finance, healthcare, and education.
  • Tech jobs are shifting away from classic coding roles toward new skills.

Notable Quotes:

• Karen Kimbrough: "We're definitely looking at a hiring recession... People aren't leaving their jobs but are applying to more jobs and having less success." [21:21]
• "Entry level workers with a college degree are running far, far slower." [24:32]

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4. Healthcare Labor Force: Supply, Demand & AI Innovation

Guest: Dr. Iman Abu Aid, Co-founder & CEO, Incredible Health
[29:32 – 35:48]

• Demand Remains Strong Yet Slower:
  The health care sector still adds jobs, but the pace is slowing due to economic headwinds and legislative impacts (e.g., changes to Medicare/Medicaid, [30:13]).
• Immigration Bottlenecks:
  About 20% of U.S. healthcare workers are foreign-born, but recent years have seen a slowdown in immigration. "We're still status quo with immigration… it's a huge slowdown… since 2016" [30:49].
• Solution: Remove Domestic Bottlenecks:
  The U.S. must improve domestic training and education capacity—"remove the bottlenecks in health care, including the nursing school shortages" (Dr. Abu Aid, 31:27).
• AI & Technology Integration:
  Incredible Health is launching AI-powered agents to streamline hiring and support professionals’ career development (e.g., resume generation, mock interviews).
  "AI is being used to augment and support these healthcare workers…" [34:21]
  The future may see AI, robots, and human professionals collaborating—"I believe that human connection still matters…but AI is being used to augment and support" [34:21].
• Structural Challenges:
  The education pipeline, especially for advanced professionals, remains limited: “it is very difficult… to increase the number of healthcare workers we desperately need” [32:12].

Notable Quotes:

• Dr. Iman Abu Aid: "It's really just the bottlenecks we have in our system… There is a desire from Americans to become healthcare workers… but we have bottlenecks on hiring, on educating and on training" [32:55].
• "Health care is the one industry that is adopting AI technology very fast, almost as fast as other industries, which is unusual." [33:43]

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Memorable Moments and Tone

• Nobel Prize and Negotiations:
  The intersection of geopolitics, personal ambition, and peacemaking is highlighted with humor and critical insight.
• Taylor Swift “Economic Indicator” Joke:
  Michael McKee’s tongue-in-cheek comment about the economic impact of Swift’s album lightens an otherwise heavy episode.
• “Job Hugging” Phrase:
  Kimbrough’s terminology adds fresh perspective to today’s labor dynamics.
• AI Agents Named “Gail” and “Lynn”:
  Concrete examples of how AI is personalizing and automating healthcare workforce management—“Gail is a career partner… Lynn is a co-pilot for hiring teams” (Dr. Abu Aid, 35:28).

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Timestamps to Key Segments

• 01:54 – Main story introduction: Hostages and Trump’s peace plan
• 02:23 – Wayne Sanders explains Hamas’s position and implications
• 04:55 – Geopolitical context and Israeli military calculus
• 05:52 – The Nobel Prize angle, political motivations
• 07:19 – Sanders on chances for actual peace
• 11:07 – U.S. labor market, Fed policy without jobs data
• 12:33 – Housing, immigration, and inflation per Fed Governor Myron
• 16:12 – On data dependency and economic forecasting
• 21:21 – LinkedIn’s Karen Kimbrough on hiring recession
• 23:41 – Historic comparison of current hiring rates
• 24:32 – Demographic/sectoral trends
• 29:32 – Dr. Iman Abu Aid describes healthcare hiring and bottlenecks
• 33:34 – AI’s current and future roles in healthcare hiring
• 34:21 – Human vs. AI synergy in patient care

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Conclusion

The episode provides critical insights into global geopolitics and domestic economics at a moment of considerable transition and uncertainty. Hamas’s offer, while historic, comes with deep regional and political complexities. At home, the labor market’s “hiring recession,” the Fed’s uncertain path, and the innovation-driven transformation of healthcare all point to a U.S. economy in flux, navigating policy challenges and technological change.

For listeners:
This episode is essential if you want to understand how global conflict resolution, domestic economic policy, labor market shifts, and emerging technologies are converging to shape the near future.

Transcript

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[Carol Massar]

We do have our most read story in the Bloomberg now that Hamas has agreed to release all Israeli hostages captured in that Oct. 7 attack, but said the rest of President Donald Trump's 20 point peace plan would be subject to negotiation. Let's get the latest on that. For that we do head to our Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Defense Analyst Wayne Sanders joining us. Wayne, this feels like a big development, but again with caveats. Walk us through what's significant and what's still to be known.

[Wayne Sanders]

Well, I think the fact that they're doing anything at all at this point in time is is good, right? It's showing that from Hamas's side is hey look, we need to come to the table with more than just with more than Just rhetoric. We actually have to put action to this. I think the Sunday deadline that President Trump put out is something that, that he's holding to. And I mean he's, he's said what he was planning on doing, if not right unleashing all hell on, against, against Hamas. So they are taking it seriously but at the same time they do recognize they're not able to just go ahead and submit to all 20, 20 of those. So I think there's going to be a lot of the geopolitical play over the weekend where they're trying to figure out how to, how to reach. I don't know whether they're going to go to all 20 and then it's really going to be back into President Trump's hands.

[Tim Stanweck]

Where do you.

[Wayne Sanders]

Yeah.

[Tim Stanweck]

Other parts of the President's 20 point plan require a unified national stance and must be addressed based on relevant international laws and resolutions. Where does it seem like to you. I don't want to call them sticking points because the 20 point plan is very detailed. But based on the statement that we got from Hamas, what does it seem like they are not agreeing to at this point and why?

[Wayne Sanders]

I think, I think some of the points that are really sticking with is just taking some of the ownership as part of it. Right. They realize that inside that region when you're looking at what, what countries are going to go towards, towards in backing the US And President Trump's plan and then which ones may not. You know, there's a lot of geopolitical pieces that play in here. Likely with Trump is going to be uae. It's going to be functionally on Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. There are other ones that are not pro Hamas, but they're also not with President Trump as well. And that's like Qatar and Oman and Kuwait, they all play different plays in this. Right. So I think the sticking point is making sure that if Hamas is coming to the table, what, how is it going to be felt within the region from the Gulf states that may, they're still may try to get onto their side.

[Carol Massar]

I mean. Yeah. And the relationships are so tricky here. Right. Like trying to understand it and all the implications of such. Having said that, I mean my understanding that I think we were talking to a member of the Bloomberg team on the ground about I think was it on Monday and that there was still things going off in, in Gaza.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah. As he was talking to us, he were hearing ordinance.

[Michael McKee]

Right.

[Tim Stanweck]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

And so it's just, it's very tricky, it's very delicate and I'm Just curious where Israel is in all of this. And I guess we're watching them very closely here.

[Wayne Sanders]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, when you think about it, it's a military offensive that they're putting on until they feel that Hamas has actually come to the table and has met those demands. Right. So they're not going to back off. I mean, at the most they would probably do is they would hold the positions that they currently have. But if there are military strikes based off of, you know, credible threat intelligence that they have of Hamas leadership, as of right now, as of the time of this broadcast, right, they have not agreed to the 20 point plan. So therefore, then they consider it fair game as part of their offensive operations that they have said that they were going to do. They warned ahead of time that it was going to happen. And so if they're still going to conduct that through that, we saw that even in Israel, Iran, when, when that was going off before Operation Midnight Hammer is even when President Trump was saying, hey, here are the timelines and here is kind of the date we're going to put this line in the sand. You still saw Israel and Iran still continuing to fire at each other right up until that last minute. So this is part of that.

[Carol Massar]

All right, I'm going to be silly here, but we are living in silly and interesting and difficult times to say that. And Bloomberg has a whole story on this, so I feel it's very credible. Wayne, but we have a story out. President Trump wants the Nobel Prize and is applying pressure to win it. And I just the timing of all of this, because I think the Peace Prize is going to be, is it announced next week or very soon? And so I just wonder timing in all of this, is this silly to even bring it up?

[Wayne Sanders]

I wouldn't say it's silly to bring it up. I mean, that might be in the back of the mind. I mean, you heard during his, his conference with Secretary Hegseth and all of the generals that took place on Tuesday, he brought that up because they're not going to give it to me. He almost made a flippant comment about, you know, like, oh, they're not going to give it to me, they're going to give it to somebody else. But it was something that he did still bring up. So I think that is something that is out there. Otherwise, I don't think he would have brought it up in front of all the military leadership on Tuesday.

[Carol Massar]

And we should say the winner is going to be announced on October 10th. So it is just around the corner yeah.

[Tim Stanweck]

The president told the UN General assembly last week that everyone says they should get the Nobel Peace Prize, arguing that he and the US Never received any credit for striking Abraham Accords.

[Carol Massar]

More importantly, I think about not silly is, is this going to bring real peace to this part of the Middle east and really bring an end to a conflict that we have seen between Israel and Hamas that has gone on for so long?

[Wayne Sanders]

Yeah, that's a really, really tough one. One that is way above my pay grade. I only say that just from the standpoint is there is so much history, so much of their cultures that have been tied to this for, for thousands of years. This isn't, you know, this is a new thing that's, that's kind of coming up. So I have a hard time believing that, that they ever are going to completely just want to be at peace with one another. But I think that at least you can create some strict boundaries and guidelines that are on that may at least provide some resolving peace over at least the near term.

[Tim Stanweck]

Wayne Sanders from our Bloomberg Intelligence team joining us from just outside of Washington.

[Carol Massar]

D.C. and balance of power. Joe Matthew will have more on all of this. The ins and outs of all of the news out of the nation's capital coming up at 5pm Wall street time. And of course, the latest on what we are hearing on this Hamas agreement. It seems like saying it agrees to release all Israeli hostages again coming out in a statement. All right, Wayne, thank you so much for that.

[Tim Stanweck]

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[Carol Massar]

Normally we would be talking about this being Jobs Friday. You know that's not the case because of the US Government shutdown. So we are leaning on other data points and voices for clues on the labor market. And that includes members of the Federal Reserve, including the newest member of the Fed board, Stephen Myron, who earlier joined Bloomberg TV and radio. One of the things he stressed that he may just be data dependent after all, just like Fitcher Jay Powell.

[Michael McKee]

So my view is driven by two things. Shelter, sorry, services are the more persistent and sticky part of inflation. Services are driven in large part by housing. And I expect housing inflation to come down through those channels. If something were to happen that were to tell me that that channel is invalidated, that there's some shock that's going to be pushing rents materially higher. The benign inflation forecast that I have would have to be adjusted as a result.

[Tim Stanweck]

That's Fed Governor Stephen Myron earlier today on Bloomberg Television. Also chair of President Trump's council and economic advisers, on leave though from that job. Now Fed governor as we mentioned, Michael McKee, part of the team that did that interview. He's with us right now. He's Bloomberg TV and Radio international economics and policy correspondent. He joins us here in the Bloomberg businessweek studio. So we're going to talk about him being data dependent in just a second. But I want to stick on this idea of shelter as it relates to the inflationary view. What is his thesis? What is his theory that that part of inflation will start to ease?

[Michael McKee]

Well, the theory is that because they are removing so many undocumented aliens from the United States, it will reduce demand for housing and that will bring down the price of housing because more houses will be available to those who are still here. It's based on a study that was done in 2003 about the Mariel boat lift in Miami which found that there was sort of a one to one relationship there between removal and prices going down. A lot of economists say that's a tough thing to scale up nationwide and to say is a rule that will apply in the future. But that's his story and that's what his belief is in terms of bringing down service price inflation and therefore overall inflation.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, shelter such a tricky thing for the Fed to actually affect and fetch your Jay Powell has talked about this for years, Mike. He said given the tools that we have, we can only do so much when it comes to shelter prices. And in fact, he's talked about that being more of a policy issue in the past than it is about being part of the Fed's dual mandate.

[Michael McKee]

Well, most analysts of the housing industry say that the problem for housing is that there's not enough supply. And a lot of that has to do with zoning regulations in cities. You can always build out in the suburbs now you have to go to the exurbs and you start to get so far away from people's jobs that they don't want to move out there. They'd like housing in the more central areas, which means you need more density. And that's a big fight always. So that is a policy problem. The other problem is that the Fed controls short rates. And so if you are worried about mortgage rates that they're going to be much more closely tied to long treasuries like the 10 year and that's going to be priced by the markets in what they think of inflation is going to be. So it's another reason why people are dubious about Myron's view on bringing down inflation through housing.

[Carol Massar]

Three or four houses for sale on my block. So really definitely some supply that I am seeing and I remember Actually a voice this week on surveillance, that's that they talked in the morning about. No, there is plenty of supply out there. So I'm, I'm a little confused. I want to move on to another Fed voice, Fed Reserve or Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, making some comments and cautioning on risks to inflation's, to inflation job goals. There are Fed voices that matter more than most and we know Jay Powell is certainly one of them. What about Mr. Jefferson?

[Michael McKee]

Well, he matters in the sense that as Vice chair, he's not going to dissent unless he has some horrible disagreement with Jay Powell. And so if that's where he is, that's where Powell is. And you get the same thing when you're talking about what John Williams thinks is the Vice Chair of the Open Market Committee. So it tells us that basically the Fed is on board with another rate cut because that's what Powell suggested at the last meeting. The question is, is it October or December? Most people in the markets think it'll be October. And without data, the general feeling seems to be, well, that doesn't give them a reason to change their mind now. It could give them a reason to wait.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Michael McKee]

And see what happens. But I think what we have to do is wait until we get closer to the end of the month, the meetings on the 29th of Octo, and then start judging what Fed people are saying.

[Carol Massar]

Speaking of changing one's mind. And I want to, I do want to go back to Steve Myron for a moment. From the conversation that you had this morning with the team on Bloomberg TV and radio, is it fair to say he is kind of data dependent? Did he kind of come across that way?

[Michael McKee]

Well, he stated dependent to the extent that the data back up what he thinks is going to happen. He's saying that he is looking forward, which is basically more based, being based more on forecasts than on past data. So it's going to be hard to say he's wrong in the short term because whatever he's predicting hasn't happened yet. But his view is that the economy is going to slow, that the labor market is going to slow and that inflation is also going to come down and therefore you could cut rates and you should cut rates more quickly because you don't want the economy to weaken too much. But again, that's all based on forecasts as opposed to prior data.

[Tim Stanweck]

We know that he's on leave from the job of chair of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisers. You and the team asked about input from the President. What did he tell you when it comes to not just whether or not he's had an interview to be the Fed chair, but if he's ever been asked by the president to actually take a specific policy action.

[Michael McKee]

Well, he gave us the same answer that he has given other people, that he has not heard from the President since the day he was confirmed, when Trump gave him a call to congratulate him but did not ask him to do anything particular. And he says since then he hasn't heard from Mr. Trump and that the president has never asked him to take a particular position. On the other hand, you know, if mom told you a couple of weeks ago to clean up your room and she's standing there staring at you, you kind of get the message without her having to say it. I think Carol would agree.

[Sami Sriram]

Total.

[Tim Stanweck]

You can all relate to that in different ways.

[Carol Massar]

Yes, yes, we did get some data. Well, you know, first, I want to say in terms of jobs day that we've gotten so far, you know, I've heard people say we're kind of flying blind without the monthly jobs data or the government shutdown and not getting government data on the US Economy. Are we, are we completely flying blind or do those private reports and the different reports, including ism, that we got today still help form a fair picture of the US Economy?

[Michael McKee]

They give you a sort of pointillist picture of the economy. You know, it's not sharply defined, but there's a lot of private data out there now, more and more all the time. Revelio Labs is a new one out there. They were out today saying 60,000 jobs in the month of September. The Economist survey by Bloomberg was 53,000. So they're in that ballpark. ADP was negative 32,000. So they're in a different ballpark. They're playing in a way game, different ballpark altogether. But in general, you get the idea that this is what's happening in the economy. And remember that whatever the first jobs report number is, it's going to be revised. And the Fed knows that as well. So they have a lot of their own data sources that they use to try to figure out what's going on.

[Tim Stanweck]

Well, you guys asked Governor Myron about this, whether or not the lack of data would affect the Fed's job. And he gave an interesting answer. I thought he said the Fed uses that data, but they're not making decisions each and every day. What did you make of that?

[Michael McKee]

Well, the market is always moving rates around because of the latest data or the latest thing that happens to a particular company and the Fed just every six weeks. And so they look at what all the data up to that point is. Plus, as I said, they have their own data. They get the ADP day, the raw ADP data and they manipulate it their own ways statistically. They don't do what ADP does with the Stanford lab to come up with the numbers that we get from them. So they have their own views on what we're seeing. And as I've noted before right now, given all the problems we've had with data coming out of the pandemic.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Michael McKee]

The the Fed officials are leaning much more on their conversations with CEOs and businesses about what's happening. To get an idea.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, 20 seconds. One other important indicator. I can't believe we didn't get to it. The Swift Measure, as in Taylor Swift new album, what Do we need to Know real quickly?

[Michael McKee]

I found it had a good beat and I could dance to it, which is a joke I used before. And Carol got it. She's been around like me for a while. It looks like about 5050 on the, on the Internet. You know, some people like it, some people don't like it. But it's the most streamed album ever. So it tells you that that's going to make some money, which is good for the economy. So we thank Taylor Swift and great.

[Carol Massar]

For the Taylor economy as well.

[Michael McKee]

Yeah.

[Carol Massar]

Michael McKee, thank you so much.

[Podcast Host]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

We want to stay on the jobs, report the US economy. We want to see what she and her team at LinkedIn are seeing. Let's bring in Karen Kimbrough. She's chief economist at LinkedIn out there in Sunnyvale, California. Karen, you guys have such a great vantage point. You get lots of data on LinkedIn. Tell us what you are seeing on the platform when it comes to the US labor market.

[Sami Sriram]

Yeah. So great to be here. Thanks for having me. One of the things we're seeing right now is an incredibly sluggish labor market. Hiring is slow. In fact, by our own data, we're seeing hiring that's down last month, three and a half percent on the month and nearly 9% on the year. So we continue to see hiring being very anemic. I don't think we're looking at an economic recession, but we're definitely looking at a hiring recession, if you will. Hiring is weak. One of the things that we're also seeing here, not just in hiring, but also just employer demand for taking on workers is just very, very slow. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that workers aren't leaving their jobs. We see that quits. By our own measures, people aren't leaving their jobs by as much as they were in the past, but they're applying to more jobs and having less success. So it's a much more competitive and tough labor market out there than it was before.

[Carol Massar]

Can we go so far, too, to say employers are still hoarding workers as well? Karen, can you guys get a feel on that as well? That's something that we've certainly seen out of the pandemic when folks were just, you know, dying to get workers in. And it was a hard, it was a very tight labor force. So they have been a little bit gun shy, if you will, in this environment to kind of let folks go. Do you see signs of that?

[Sami Sriram]

I think so. We've been calling it job hugging. So on the one hand, we're not seeing professionals that really want to leave. They're not quitting, they're not rushing for the doors. And at the, on the other side, the employers aren't yet sort of leveraging any kind of layoffs or reductions in force in the private sector. Not to any great degree. When you look at the data that's out on jolts, or you look at the data that is, you know, in our own labor market data set here at LinkedIn, we don't see elevated layoffs. So I do think employers are kind of holding on to the talent they have. They are definitely looking to refresh it where they can, but they're being very cautious about it.

[Tim Stanweck]

You know, LinkedIn data only goes back so far, so. So maybe there isn't a time when we can compare this to Karen in recent years. But I'm wondering if what this looks like as far as other parts of the economy or other parts of economic history, like, is there a historical parallel you could draw as to where we are in the cycle right now?

[Sami Sriram]

Well, for us, the. That's right. We typically like to go back to around 2015, 2016 in our data. That's where we feel confident that we can say something. But when we look at the hiring rate right now, it being so slow, so much lower than Even last year, 20% below the pre pandemic levels, I would say hiring is as low as it's been since like 2013 right now. So it is a really, really kind of slumbering labor market with not a lot of movement. And I think one of the factors is that we just don't have that churn. We're not seeing people quit, we're not seeing people laid off, which is a great thing. I'm glad about that. But it means that when people don't leave their job, there's no vacancy to backfill. Things are very slow.

[Carol Massar]

You know, I'm curious, Karen, demographic differences, industry differences, geographic differences, any color that you can give us on that.

[Sami Sriram]

Demographically speaking, we definitely see that hiring is extremely punishing for those entry level workers. So young grads who are coming out with a college degree, their hiring rate is twice as slow as everyone else's. So if I told you that on average entry level workers maybe without a college degree are running a little bit slower than the average worker, those entry level workers with a college degree are running far, far slower.

[Tim Stanweck]

Where are people getting jobs and where are they not getting jobs?

[Sami Sriram]

So people are definitely getting jobs if they work in the skilled trades. You know, master electrician, plumber, pipe fitter. If you're working in commercial construction, because there's a lot of activity, think about the, the plants that are being built, utilities and electrical grids that are being expanded. There's a lot of demand for construction work there. There's also a lot of hiring, believe it or not, going on in the financial sector. We're seeing it in education, we're seeing it still in health care. So there are definitely pockets where people are getting hired. But where we're not seeing as much momentum is sometimes in that middle space of either entry level workers in the white collar space or if you, you know, some of the tech jobs are starting to rotate away from classic coding requirements and looking for different skills. And so that's causing a change in who's getting hired in tech companies.

[Carol Massar]

Some might say a Harvard trade school maybe. Makes sense then, after all, which certainly relates to a story that we talked about earlier in the week. Karen, so great to get time with you. We look forward to maybe next month or sooner and maybe we'll actually have a monthly jobs data to also weave into the conversation. Karen Kimbrough chief economist at LinkedIn from Sunnyvale, California.

[Tim Stanweck]

Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Podcast Host]

Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Burke Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Carol Massar]

As you know, no monthly jobs report. We have talked about that a lot. I will point out though in the last monthly jobs report from the government. We did get that out last month showed hiring in the US Health care sector looking increasingly shaky, raising a warning flag for the economy given its importance as a key driver of job growth. Over the last three years now, Tim, health care and social assistance companies added about 47,000 employees to payrolls. That was in August and that is the last month that we have data for According to the bls look, and.

[Tim Stanweck]

We just spoke to Karen Kimbrough, a chief economist over at LinkedIn, and she said the same thing, that they're seeing some strength when it comes to some areas, including jobs like construction jobs like electrician, master plumber, but also in the healthcare sector. Still seeing hiring there.

[Carol Massar]

Exactly. So let's get another view when it comes to health care jobs, specifically the nursing industry. Back with us is Dr. Iman Abu Aid. She's co founder and CEO of Incredible Health. It's a career marketplace for connecting hospitals to nursing talent. So she has a good view on all of this. She is here in studio. Nice to have you here. How are you?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

I'm doing well. Thank you so much for having me.

[Carol Massar]

It's great to have you here. We are without the latest monthly jobs report. So we're trying to kind of read the tea leaves and talk to lots of folks talk to us about supply and demand for nurses in the US what are you seeing?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

We're still seeing a strong demand for health care in health care hiring. The number of jobs are in health care are increasing, but it's happening at a, at a lower rate than it was before.

[Carol Massar]

Why?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Like most likely changes to the economy and the macroeconomic changes that we're facing as a, as a country. So the other big reason is the big beautiful bill does have Medicare and Medicaid reductions in it, which has, you know, slowed some, a little bit of hiring in health care, too.

[Tim Stanweck]

A lot of health care jobs, not necessarily rn, but health care jobs are occupied in the US by people who were not born in the US I don't know the data that you have on that on your platform, but I'm curious if you're seeing any of the immigration changes that we've seen during the Trump administration, during the first few months of this administration, affect the workforce on your platform?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

So 20% of health care workers in the U.S. were born outside of the U.S. so they do, they do compose an important part of the health care workforce that's already here. To be honest, though, we're still with status quo with immigration. I mean, honestly, since 2016, there's just been a huge slowdown in the number of health care workers entering the country as immigrants. And a lot of that just continues with every administration. We saw it with Biden, we're now seeing it with Trump. And so that just highlights the importance of us needing to take care of our domestic health care workforce.

[Tim Stanweck]

So what's the answer, in your view, if it's been slowing down at this point for close to 10 years. Then what's the right way to approach this?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

The best way to approach this is to keep increasing the number of health care workers in the US by encouraging more and more Americans to go into health care. We also have to remove the bottlenecks in health care, including the nursing short, the, the nursing school shortages, the technician school shortages, and increasing the training programs that are available for Americans.

[Tim Stanweck]

Okay, I've talked to some doctors about this, friends of mine, and they give me these numbers that are just mind bogglingly small. Like some specialties only graduate, like three or four different residents per year in some schools. And like, it's an incredibly small number. So that, that seems to be structural. But as you move down from actual MDs, is it easier to increase the number? Because it doesn't seem like it's easy to increase the number of doctors in this country with the way the system is structured.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

That's exactly right. The way the system is currently structured is it is very difficult for us as a country to increase the number of healthcare workers that we desperately need. And healthcare still remains the biggest labor shortage in the country, with the demand continuing to increase from patients getting older. But not enough healthcare workers in the system.

[Carol Massar]

Wait, so cost, lack of places to educate folks, or lack of desire for people to want to do it? I mean, I know folks who are doctors and I think, Tim, you and I talk about this a lot who don't necessarily love it. And then there is the demographic side where I know I've had doctors in my life for years who have recently retired. And yet we're scrambling to find new doctors. What is like the key metric that is or cost? Like, what is it that is really preventing folks from going into the profession?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

It's really just the bottlenecks we have in our system. There is a desire from Americans to become health care workers. It's a key way to change, you know, your socioeconomic status. But we have bottlenecks on, on hiring, on educating and on training the healthcare workers.

[Carol Massar]

Why do we have bottlenecks if we need them?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Yeah, I think honestly there's a lot of experiences that we need to continue to improve. That's a lot where incredible health comes in. We're actually announcing our AI agents. So what we've done is really ushered in a new era of health care hiring that can be done with AI agents to really improve the experience of health care workers finding their dream jobs and pursuing their dream careers.

[Tim Stanweck]

So that's on the hiring side. What about on the Actual taking care of patient side and technology. There's. Is there a way to ease the burden on these health care professionals using technology?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Absolutely. Health care is the one, is one industry that is adopting AI technology very fast, almost as fast as other industries, which is unusual.

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

In health care we're seeing AI agents be used at the bedside, we're seeing AI scribes being used.

[Tim Stanweck]

So there are, we've had, we've had experience. Have you had a doctor with a scribe? I've had a doctor with an AI scribe.

[Carol Massar]

I'm not sure if I.

[Tim Stanweck]

But apart from that, I mean, and that's, that's really helpful to doctors when they're doing their notes. They probably don't have to spend as much time doing notes and maybe they can spend more time with patients.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

That's right.

[Tim Stanweck]

But beyond that is the technology to a place where you can trust it to make decisions that are going to lead to better outcomes for patients?

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Yeah. I believe that human connection still matters in healthcare. Both the human connection, the empathy piece. I don't think the jobs are necessarily going to be replaced with AI, but AI is being used to augment and support, support these health care workers who are generally an overworked and burnt out workforce.

[Carol Massar]

Do you see eventually a day I'm going to just go there, you know, as we continue to see like humanoids and robotics, but a combination of robots with some AI and somehow having a role when it comes to American health care.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Absolutely. I mean we launched two AI agents, one named Gail and one named Lind. Gail is a career partner for health care workers, a lifelong career partner that helps them generate resumes, that helps them with interview preparation, helps them do mock interviews. And over 90% of nurses give it a thumbs up in terms of giving it, having a great experience as well as referring it to their friends. And then also Lynn is another AI agent we have which is a co pilot for the hiring teams. And so Lynn is now interviewing healthcare workers and is selling them on the organization, discussing multiple jobs with them and really sharing like what's amazing about specific employers.

[Carol Massar]

But what I really mean. Just got about 30 seconds. The idea of a actual robot with AI and learning and in a hospital helping out.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

I mean, absolutely. I mean, I think the future, that's where we're all headed. Not just in healthcare, probably in other industries too.

[Carol Massar]

Not, no, not for journalists, not for broadcasting. Good to catch up with you. Thank you so much and great to have you in studio.

[Dr. Iman Abu Aid]

Thank you so much for having me. Appreciate it.

[Carol Massar]

Take care. Dr. Iman Abu Zaid. She's co founder, Chief Executive Officer of Incredible Health right here.

[Podcast Host]

This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get. Your podcasts listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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