Bloomberg Businessweek – “Holiday Cheer Comes at a Premium in 2025”

Date: December 16, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Amanda Gotti, Chief Investment Officer, PNC Asset Management Group

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode explores the rising costs of the 12 Days of Christmas gifts, as depicted through the annual PNC Christmas Price Index. The conversation uses the whimsical price tracking of these classic holiday gifts to reflect on real-world inflation trends, the state of the consumer, margins, asset prices, and broader economic signals heading into 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Christmas Price Index: A Playful Inflation Barometer

• PNC’s Christmas Price Index, ongoing for 42 years, tracks the costs of items listed in the “12 Days of Christmas” song to offer a lighthearted but revealing annual gauge on inflation and consumer trends.
• Headline stat: The Christmas Price Index is up 4.5% year-over-year—outpacing the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • Amanda Gotti (03:07):

    "On a year over year basis, the Christmas price index is up 4.5%. So we are handily outpacing...the BLS CPI version. So it's going to cost true love this holiday season."

2. Where Costs Rose Most: Five Golden Rings & Pear Trees

• Five Golden Rings:
  • The "biggest mover" this year, with gold prices up a striking 32.5%.
  • Rising gold prices reflect a combination of asset outperformance and tighter business margins.
  • Amanda Gotti (03:47):

    "The five golden rings weren't up as much as the price of gold itself. Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent. It's really very much a reflection of what we think is a little bit of a margin squeeze...But margin pressures are building."

• Pear Tree:
  • Used as a proxy for housing costs.
  • Increase mirrors the hot housing market and affordability challenges despite slightly lower mortgage rates.
  • Amanda Gotti (04:39):

    "The pear tree is what we refer to as a proxy for housing costs...Affordability getting kind of challenged. Even though mortgage rates have come down some, it hasn't made a huge difference...We're still very short housing stock."

3. Performers as a Reflection of the Real Economy

• Ten Lords a Leaping:
  • Symbolizes concert and event ticket prices, which surged.
  • Notably, high demand for top experiences like Oasis concerts drove up costs, highlighting the “experience economy.”
  • Amanda Gotti (06:07):

    "We do our best to try and talk to dance companies and theater companies on a year over year basis. There's a method to this scientific madness...The Lords of all the performers were the biggest standout...So naturally it must be the Oasis effect."

4. Stability (or Not) Among Other Gifts

• Most other "gifts" saw flat prices—two turtle doves, three French hens, four calling birds, seven swans, and eight maids.
• Significant moves occurred only in the top three or four categories.
• Amanda Gotti (06:42):

  "Almost nothing goes down. Let's get real here...a number of gifts did stay flat on a year over year basis...but some pretty significant moves in the top three or four."

5. Inflation Insights, Consumer Health, and Looking Ahead

• The index emphasizes that while it’s a “fun” indicator, it reflects real consumer trends for specialty/luxury spending.
• Overall consumer spending remains solid; retail sales and holiday shopping are healthy but costlier for consumers.
• Caution about drawing broad trends from partial, lagging data—particularly as some reports may be outdated.
  • Amanda Gotti (07:46):

    "You have to think about the gifts in the Christmas price Index as a very specialty gift basket of goods and services...It tends to lean higher end...but I think it is a good indicator for what some of the pricing trends may look like this holiday season."

  • Amanda Gotti (08:43):

    "The challenge is that some of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete...there's a number of other components and indicators that we can use to gauge the success of this holiday season..."

6. Consumer Outlook for 2026

• Both guest and hosts agree that consumers are, overall, “in good shape”—unless you’re looking to purchase especially hot or pricey experiences.

  • Amanda Gotti (09:22):

    "I think we're in good shape."

  • Bloomberg Host (09:23):

    "Unless you're buying five golden rings or...you're getting ten lords a leaping..."

• Humorous Note: Oasis tickets, like some holiday gifts, aren’t easy (or affordable) to acquire.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Amanda Gotti (03:47):

  "The five golden rings weren't up as much as the price of gold itself. Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent..."

• Amanda Gotti (04:39):

  "The pear tree is what we refer to as a proxy for housing costs..."

• Amanda Gotti (06:07):

  "There's a method to this scientific madness. And so I'm just trying to make it a little bit relatable. The Lords of all the performers were the biggest standout..."

• Amanda Gotti (08:43):

  "...the challenge is that some of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete..."

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:37 – Introduction of the Christmas Price Index topic
• 03:07 – Cost increase: Headline stats for 2025
• 03:47 – Deep dive: Gold rings and asset prices
• 04:39 – Pear tree as proxy for the housing market
• 05:16 – The cost of performers (“Lords a Leaping”) and concert ticket trends
• 06:42 – What stayed the same or went down in cost
• 07:17 – Linking the index to real-world inflation
• 08:29 – Economic data to watch for 2026; consumer health
• 09:22 – Hosts and guest agree: Consumers (mostly) in “good shape”

Summary Table: Biggest Movers (2025 Christmas Price Index)

| Gift | Change vs. 2024 | Corresponds to | |---------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------| | Five Golden Rings | +32.5% | Gold prices, margins squeeze | | Pear Tree | Up | Housing market/affordability | | Ten Lords a Leaping | Up | Concert/experience prices | | Other gifts | Flat/stable | Minimal year-over-year change |

Takeaway

Through the quirky lens of the PNC Christmas Price Index, this episode serves up a relatable snapshot of rising holiday costs, fueled by underlying inflation in luxury goods, real estate, and the experience economy. While most consumers are “in good shape,” premium gifts—and Oasis tickets—come at a significant premium in 2025.