Holiday Cheer Comes at a Premium in 2025

Summary

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Bloomberg Businessweek – “Holiday Cheer Comes at a Premium in 2025”

Date: December 16, 2025
Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec
Guest: Amanda Gotti, Chief Investment Officer, PNC Asset Management Group

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Main Theme and Purpose

This episode explores the rising costs of the 12 Days of Christmas gifts, as depicted through the annual PNC Christmas Price Index. The conversation uses the whimsical price tracking of these classic holiday gifts to reflect on real-world inflation trends, the state of the consumer, margins, asset prices, and broader economic signals heading into 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Christmas Price Index: A Playful Inflation Barometer

• PNC’s Christmas Price Index, ongoing for 42 years, tracks the costs of items listed in the “12 Days of Christmas” song to offer a lighthearted but revealing annual gauge on inflation and consumer trends.
• Headline stat: The Christmas Price Index is up 4.5% year-over-year—outpacing the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI).
  • Amanda Gotti (03:07):

    "On a year over year basis, the Christmas price index is up 4.5%. So we are handily outpacing...the BLS CPI version. So it's going to cost true love this holiday season."

2. Where Costs Rose Most: Five Golden Rings & Pear Trees

• Five Golden Rings:
  • The "biggest mover" this year, with gold prices up a striking 32.5%.
  • Rising gold prices reflect a combination of asset outperformance and tighter business margins.
  • Amanda Gotti (03:47):

    "The five golden rings weren't up as much as the price of gold itself. Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent. It's really very much a reflection of what we think is a little bit of a margin squeeze...But margin pressures are building."

• Pear Tree:
  • Used as a proxy for housing costs.
  • Increase mirrors the hot housing market and affordability challenges despite slightly lower mortgage rates.
  • Amanda Gotti (04:39):

    "The pear tree is what we refer to as a proxy for housing costs...Affordability getting kind of challenged. Even though mortgage rates have come down some, it hasn't made a huge difference...We're still very short housing stock."

3. Performers as a Reflection of the Real Economy

• Ten Lords a Leaping:
  • Symbolizes concert and event ticket prices, which surged.
  • Notably, high demand for top experiences like Oasis concerts drove up costs, highlighting the “experience economy.”
  • Amanda Gotti (06:07):

    "We do our best to try and talk to dance companies and theater companies on a year over year basis. There's a method to this scientific madness...The Lords of all the performers were the biggest standout...So naturally it must be the Oasis effect."

4. Stability (or Not) Among Other Gifts

• Most other "gifts" saw flat prices—two turtle doves, three French hens, four calling birds, seven swans, and eight maids.
• Significant moves occurred only in the top three or four categories.
• Amanda Gotti (06:42):

  "Almost nothing goes down. Let's get real here...a number of gifts did stay flat on a year over year basis...but some pretty significant moves in the top three or four."

5. Inflation Insights, Consumer Health, and Looking Ahead

• The index emphasizes that while it’s a “fun” indicator, it reflects real consumer trends for specialty/luxury spending.
• Overall consumer spending remains solid; retail sales and holiday shopping are healthy but costlier for consumers.
• Caution about drawing broad trends from partial, lagging data—particularly as some reports may be outdated.
  • Amanda Gotti (07:46):

    "You have to think about the gifts in the Christmas price Index as a very specialty gift basket of goods and services...It tends to lean higher end...but I think it is a good indicator for what some of the pricing trends may look like this holiday season."

  • Amanda Gotti (08:43):

    "The challenge is that some of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete...there's a number of other components and indicators that we can use to gauge the success of this holiday season..."

6. Consumer Outlook for 2026

• Both guest and hosts agree that consumers are, overall, “in good shape”—unless you’re looking to purchase especially hot or pricey experiences.

  • Amanda Gotti (09:22):

    "I think we're in good shape."

  • Bloomberg Host (09:23):

    "Unless you're buying five golden rings or...you're getting ten lords a leaping..."

• Humorous Note: Oasis tickets, like some holiday gifts, aren’t easy (or affordable) to acquire.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Amanda Gotti (03:47):

  "The five golden rings weren't up as much as the price of gold itself. Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent..."

• Amanda Gotti (04:39):

  "The pear tree is what we refer to as a proxy for housing costs..."

• Amanda Gotti (06:07):

  "There's a method to this scientific madness. And so I'm just trying to make it a little bit relatable. The Lords of all the performers were the biggest standout..."

• Amanda Gotti (08:43):

  "...the challenge is that some of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete..."

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:37 – Introduction of the Christmas Price Index topic
• 03:07 – Cost increase: Headline stats for 2025
• 03:47 – Deep dive: Gold rings and asset prices
• 04:39 – Pear tree as proxy for the housing market
• 05:16 – The cost of performers (“Lords a Leaping”) and concert ticket trends
• 06:42 – What stayed the same or went down in cost
• 07:17 – Linking the index to real-world inflation
• 08:29 – Economic data to watch for 2026; consumer health
• 09:22 – Hosts and guest agree: Consumers (mostly) in “good shape”

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Summary Table: Biggest Movers (2025 Christmas Price Index)

| Gift | Change vs. 2024 | Corresponds to | |---------------------|-----------------|---------------------------------| | Five Golden Rings | +32.5% | Gold prices, margins squeeze | | Pear Tree | Up | Housing market/affordability | | Ten Lords a Leaping | Up | Concert/experience prices | | Other gifts | Flat/stable | Minimal year-over-year change |

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Takeaway

Through the quirky lens of the PNC Christmas Price Index, this episode serves up a relatable snapshot of rising holiday costs, fueled by underlying inflation in luxury goods, real estate, and the experience economy. While most consumers are “in good shape,” premium gifts—and Oasis tickets—come at a significant premium in 2025.

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Transcript

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[Bloomberg Host]

You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with.

[Okta Advertiser]

Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.

[Bloomberg Host]

Hey, we've been talking about this all day. Yeah, the economic data that we are are not getting.

[Adobe Acrobat Advertiser]

Well, we're going to get a read.

[Bloomberg Host]

On inflation on Thursday.

[Amanda Gotti]

Right.

[Bloomberg Host]

And so one of the ways we have some fun every holiday season is figuring out what the cost of the 12 Days of Christmas are.

Yeah. So the reason we're talking about this is because it's just one read on inflation. Another read is What Carol mentioned, PNC's Christmas price index, the bank has been doing for 42 years. We've got Amanda Gotti with us, Chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group. She joins us from Philadelphia. So Amanda, is it more expensive than it was last year? Let's like what's the headline here?

[Amanda Gotti]

It's almost always more expensive. Thanks guys so much for having me. On a year over year basis, the Christmas price index is up 4.5%. So we are handily outpacing.

[Bloomberg Host]

Wow.

[Amanda Gotti]

The BLS CPI version. So it's going to cost true love this holiday season.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right, so wait, what's costing us more?

[Amanda Gotti]

Well, sadly, I mean we talk about this every year, but sadly, my all time favorite gift is actually the biggest mover by far. So five golden rings. Do I have to elaborate on that? Gold went up.

[Bloomberg Host]

Gold was an outperforming asset.

Nobody asked for five crypto rings, five bitcoin rings.

[Amanda Gotti]

No, they didn't. Although they would have done okay for at least part of the year. But the five golden rings weren't up as much as the price of gold itself. Still up a very hot 32 and a half percent. It's really very much a reflection of what we think is a little bit of a margin squeeze. Right. Late innings of the cycle, still positive growth story for the economy, but margin pressures are building. And so we are seeing that in the price of the golden rings being passed through or maybe not being quite fully passed through this holiday season.

[Bloomberg Host]

Okay, so those are the golden rings. What else was. What's the second most expensive? Not most expensive, but the thing that went up the second most.

Have you planned?

[Amanda Gotti]

Have you. Pear tree.

[Bloomberg Host]

Oh, really? Why is that?

[Amanda Gotti]

Which, which Nobody wants a partridge. Okay, so the partridge was flat on a year over year basis.

[Bloomberg Host]

Not a gift. That's not a gift that keeps on giving. The pear tree is, it's, it's an.

[Amanda Gotti]

Awful lot of work. But the, the pear tree is what we refer to as a proxy for housing costs. And so when we think about housing and the housing market in this country clearly running pretty hot on a relative basis year over year. Affordability getting kind of challenged. Right. Even though mortgage rates have come down some, it hasn't made a huge difference in terms of supply and demand and inventory levels. We're still very short housing stock. So pear tree also running hot on a year over year basis.

[Bloomberg Host]

Also performers, right? I mean, the cost of labor, I.

[Amanda Gotti]

Guess you could kind of say, well, it's. Sometimes it is the cost of labor, sometimes it's contractual escalators. This year, the big one is the 10 lords of leaping. And I've been having fun all year talking about this one because Oasis has been the hottest concert ticket in town. You could refer to them as the Lords of Rock, perhaps, but. So this is the real world. Concert tickets, experiences, demand, driving up those 10 lords.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah. How do you measure that? Just on a. On a basis. Like, are you just looking at Oasis? Are you looking at everybody?

[Amanda Gotti]

No, I'm teasing. I just. It's fun to try. I mean, Talia went to an Oasis.

[Bloomberg Host]

Talia went to an Oasis concert at two Oasis concerts. I know one of them. Where did you go? Talia, our producers. Yeah. Scotland and la. She traveled all the way for Oasis from New York, like. So there's some serious fans.

[Amanda Gotti]

Amazing. Yeah, absolutely. As am I. But I don't have 10 lords laying around here. So we do our best to try and talk to dance companies and theater companies on a year over year basis. There's a method to this scientific madness. And so I'm just trying to make it a little bit relatable. The Lords of all the performers were the biggest standout on a year over year basis. So naturally it must be the Oasis effect.

[Bloomberg Host]

If only I had ten Lords of Leaping just hanging around somewhere.

[Adobe Acrobat Advertiser]

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[Bloomberg Host]

Hey, what stayed the same or did anything go down?

[Amanda Gotti]

Almost nothing goes down. Let's get real here. I would love to say, aside from the pandemic when we had to shut the lights off on a lot of the performers and experiences, just as a function of what was happening in the real world economy, a number of gifts did stay flat on a year over year basis. So two turtle doves, three French hens, four calling birds, the seven swans, the eight maids. So there was a decent amount of stability on a year over year basis, but some pretty significant moves in the top three or four on a year over year basis.

[Bloomberg Host]

How does this. I mean, look, we're, you know, this is fun and we do this because it's fun, but it also does give us an opportunity to talk about the real world inflation that we're seeing and also real world asset price movements. Amanda, as Carol mentioned, we're getting some data this week, partial data when it comes to cpi. Some of it will be incomplete, some of it will be old, of course, but overall, the index, it moved more than headline figures when it comes to cpi.

[Amanda Gotti]

It sure did, and that's not always the case, but you have to think about the gifts in the Christmas price Index as a very specialty gift basket of goods and services. So it's not really a reflection of the broad economy and the US consumer in total. It tends to lean higher end in terms of the spectrum there, but I think it is a good indicator for what some of the pricing trends may look like this holiday season. So the consumer is definitely hanging in there on a relative basis. We definitely see consumers continuing to spend and retail sales data continues to look solid. Holiday shopping looks good, but it's definitely going to cost consumers this holiday season.

[Adobe Acrobat Advertiser]

Yeah.

[Bloomberg Host]

What's the next? I'm curious about what data points you're kind of keeping an eye on to get an idea of what happens maybe in the first half of 2026, or is it too soon to kind of make a bet on anything we see over the next couple of weeks?

[Amanda Gotti]

Well, I don't know if it's too soon necessarily to bet on it. I think the challenge is that some of the data is stale, so it's hard to extrapolate a trend from data points that are old or maybe incomplete. So as it relates to consumer health, and we're obviously focused on how the holiday shopping season plays out, retail sales data, savings rates, even just consumer sentiment, there's a number of other components and indicators that we can use to gauge the success of this, this holiday season and perhaps even the market's path forward in the new year.

[Bloomberg Host]

So, good shape. We're in good shape. Very brief.

[Amanda Gotti]

I think we're in good shape.

[Bloomberg Host]

Okay.

[Amanda Gotti]

Yeah. Unless you're buying five golden rings or.

[Bloomberg Host]

You'Re getting ten lords a leaping, or unless you're.

[Amanda Gotti]

Might not be.

[Bloomberg Host]

Is Oasis still taller?

[Amanda Gotti]

Might not be in good shape, but the rest of us are in good shape.

[Bloomberg Host]

You're in good shape. Unless you're looking for Oasis tickets, because apparently they're not touring anymore.

[Amanda Gotti]

So that's it.

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