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- [00:01]
John
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Bill Dudley
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John
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Bill Dudley
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- [00:29]
Lisa Abramowicz
Oh no.
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John
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Bill Dudley
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Mike McKee
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John
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- [00:54]
Amanda Lynam
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- [01:00]
Lisa Abramowicz
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- [01:03]
Amanda Lynam
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- [01:29]
Lisa Abramowicz
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News.
- [01:39]
John
Chairman Powell Fascinating news conference the most interesting news conference we've seen with the Fed Chair in quite a while. Let's start with the price action. A big portion of uncertainty with a sprinkle of of transitory equity markets rockets in. We're up by 1.5% on the S&P 500 on the NASDAQ, up by 1.9 out of Russell, up by close to 2 in the bond market 2 year 10 year 30 year yields down and down hard at the front end of the curve by 5 basis points to 398. Check out the commodity market gold all time highs intraday up by about a third of 1%. There's a couple of interpretations here. Here's one. It's the bad news. So they've downgraded the outlook for growth but haven't responded by projecting additional cuts. Here's the good news and this is what the market seems to be leaning on just a little bit more and the Fed Chair spoke to it Based on the forecast, the Fed believes that any upward revision to inflation in 2025 won't last beyond 2025 into 26 into 27 on that and More take a listen to what the Fed chair had to say.
- [02:41]
Amanda Lynam
It can be the case that it's.
- [02:43]
Bill Dudley
Appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it's going to go away quickly without action by us if it's transitory.
- [02:50]
John
And that can be the case in.
- [02:52]
Bill Dudley
The case of, of, of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on.
- [02:58]
John
The.
- [02:59]
Bill Dudley
Tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and would depend critically as well on inflation expectations being well anchored, longer term inflation.
- [03:06]
John
Expectations being well anchored, a willingness to look through this perhaps reinforced by this take on you, Mitch. Michigan inflation expectations reading is an outlier.
- [03:16]
Lisa Abramowicz
Okay, going back, there's a lot to unpack here. We can talk about you Michigan and how much that actually did or did not inform the back of 2022 and why it's less relevant now. The point about transitory is a key one. This market is looking through the downward revision to growth, the stagflationary like circumstances that frankly defy logic for why that should be good for risk assets and points squarely to this belief that the Fed has resurrected. Transitory is going to cut rates and in the face of weakness.
- [03:45]
Peter Fisher
What I find fascinating is John, you mentioned it correctly. To see gold go out to a record high 2/3 of the way through the press conference, folks, I've never said that. And the technical destruction of the equity markets to see the Dow and the S and P pop the way they are, by no means do they have some buoyancy of a buy signal. I mean there's some damage out there from the politics folding into what he has to deal with.
- [04:09]
John
The market reaction carries a lot of weight and right now this equity market is rallying going into the closing bell about 40 minutes from now. Joining us on the program to react, the former New York Fed President Bill Dudley. Bill Three Part Act. We've wrapped it up, we've had the forecast, the decision and now the news conference. What's your reaction to all of the above?
- [04:26]
Bill Dudley
Well, I thought the summary of economic projections is actually a bit hawkish in the sense that downgraded growth and pushed up inflation and the dot plots, you know, that did sort of shift up. They didn't shift up enough to Change it from 2 to 1 Rate cut this year, but they did, it did shift off. Powell then came in and I think gave a pretty dovish performance in the sense that, you know, we got this, we're in a good place, we can afford to wait, we'll see how it goes. We're going to get the job done. So he I think was pretty reassuring to people that this was all, you know, quite manageable. I think the reality is, I mean the growth outlook is worse, the inflation outlook is worse and uncertainty is a lot higher. I'm not really sure how you parse that out as positive, but Paul put a pretty dovish spin on it.
- [05:13]
Lisa Abramowicz
Bill, that's where transitory comes in. It was resurrected. The word that was once left for dead thought to look through some of the tariff induced inflation saying it probably would subside. What do you make of that? Because it's giving a lot of confidence to this market.
- [05:28]
Bill Dudley
Well one thing that he did talk about was inflation expectations and he basically said look, there's only one indicator that's really shown a significant increase in long term inflation expectations. Everything else looks fine. So he's basically telling people you can ignore the University of Michigan long term inflation expectations measure which has shot up very sharply the last month or so. So that's reassuring. So I think people think that's got this, you know, I think the reality is they're flying blind. They don't really know what's going to happen to growth, they don't know what's going to happen to inflation. And you know, that increases the risk of making a policy mistake or just being late.
- [06:05]
Peter Fisher
There's a book years ago, Bill Dudley with a chapter by Bill Dudley and Ed McKelvey and you set off of Patrick O'. Brien. There's not a moment to lose. How ex post is this Fed there to me not it are not a moment to lose. They are wait, wait, wait. Isn't that their best outcome?
- [06:26]
Bill Dudley
Well I don't, I don't fault them for waiting. I mean I think when uncertainty is really high and you're in, the economy is in a pretty good place. I mean inflation rates running two and a half, 3%, the unemployment rates around 4%, you know, staying here, you know, indefinitely would not be a really bad outcome. So I think that's what gives them the ability to wait because the starting point is actually pretty good. The other thing I thought was interesting about Powell's remarks is he, he started to minimize, minimize the soft data, was showing a lot of weakness and said we're really sort of focusing on the hard data. We haven't seen the weakness in the hard data yet. So that was also reassuring.
- [06:59]
John
This is what Marco formally of JP Morgan has to say out on this afternoon, not in a hurry means we will drag our feet when things get worse like in the fall of 2018. This is not bullish at all. Bill, you've lived a lot of this in the past. Is there a risk of a repeat of 2018 here?
- [07:18]
Bill Dudley
Well, I just think there's a risk that the Fed will be late because if you, if you have to have the information in hand before you act and there's long and variable lags of monetary policy and then you're not going to do the necessary action in a timely way, I think that the same but at the same time, I mean, which way does the Fed lean? Do they will lean against the inflation or do we against the growth side? That was interesting. The summary of economic projections also didn't get a lot of attention. But people's assessment of uncertainty about inflation and employment both went up. Their assessment of risk to inflation and employment both went up. And I think that's really what tells you what's, what's bad about the economic outlook now is that this dispersion of possible outcomes is pretty wide and we just don't know which which way we're heading.
- [08:01]
Lisa Abramowicz
Bill, you said that this is a Fed that's flying blind. And essentially Fed chair Jay Powell said as much when he was asked why there was this ongoing two rate cuts priced into a market where you had some pretty sizable changes to growth and inflation. And he said, what would you write down? It's really hard to know how this is going to work out. Is there any time in history, Bill, that you can think of where the Fed was as flying blind as they are right now?
- [08:29]
Bill Dudley
Well, I'm sure there have been other times. For example, you know, when you had the two oil price shocks in the 1970s that wasn't very good at the great financial crisis in 2007, 2008, you know, the week Lennon brothers failed over the weekend, the Fed was meeting the next Tuesday and Wednesday. So that was probably a pretty flying blind moment. So I think there's been other times like this. The good news is that your economy, as Chair Powell made it clear, is starting from a pretty good place. That's the important part.
- [08:56]
Peter Fisher
John Ferro, David Rosenberg, just out on Twitter right now. Really, as the insight that I had with Bob Michael before, a 4.4% unemployment is a single stick 100 basis points above the 3.4% low. You got to go back to 1948 to see that abruptness without a recession.
- [09:18]
John
So we had some deterioration last summer. Tom, I'm with you. But it turned out to be a head fake. And the Federal Reserve was somewhat unnerved by it going into Jackson Hole and signaled some reaction to it. Lisa. And they followed up with 100 basis points of interest rate reductions. And here we are again and we're trying to figure out if the soft data and the deterioration we've seen in the survey data is a head fake or not and whether it will translate into softer hard data down the road.
- [09:41]
Lisa Abramowicz
And it seemed like this was a Fed more willing to say maybe it is a head fake with respect to the soft data and not necessarily emphasizing it as much as, say, the hard data, at the same time reducing their forecasts. I wonder if we're making too much of the dots. I wonder if we're making too much of all of these utterances when essentially you have a Fed chair himself saying, we have no clue.
- [10:01]
John
We don't know, we don't know.
- [10:03]
Lisa Abramowicz
Inertia. We kept it the same because what are we supposed to do? And so there is this element where you have to look at this and say, on a fundamental level, is monetary policy still in the driver's seat at this point, or is this a fiscally fiscal policy driven market and frankly, an economically driven market that the Fed cannot really engage with in a constructive way?
- [10:22]
John
So, Lisa, in moments like this, I wouldn't put too much weight on the forecast because the Chairman is telling you we don't know. I'd put a lot of weight on the communicated reaction function, how they're communicating, how we'd respond to certain information points. And Bill, I wonder what we've learned today. If we did get a deterioration in the economic data over the next several months in the hard data, have we learned that this Fed would respond to that or would this Fed wait? Because I think that's critical for a lot of investors. Are they constrained? Is the easing bias now constrained by the inflation uncertainty of the next 12 months?
- [10:55]
Bill Dudley
It's definitely constrained to a degree. I think the thing to focus on is the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate stays where it is, then the Fed can wait. The unemployment rate goes up to, say, four and a half percent, then the Fed has to worry about the whole thing giving way. So I think the tightness of the labor market, how the labor market is performing is really important. That itself has a lot of uncertainty because remember, the growth rate of the labor force this year is being much, much slower than it was in 2023 or 2024 because very little in migration, deportations, so big slowdown in the labor force growth. So what that means is you can have slower growth and not have much change in the unemployment rate. So I think the unemployment rate is the summary statistic that I'd be Focusing on.
- [11:34]
Peter Fisher
I agree with that, Dr. Dudley, and my question is, is a 4.4, 4.5% U3 unemployment rate, is that the same as a U3 unemployment rate of 10 or 20 or 30 years ago?
- [11:49]
Amanda Lynam
No.
- [11:49]
Bill Dudley
I mean, I think the unemployment rate consistent with full employment has come down over time. Part of that's due to the aging of the population. You know, older workers are employed at a higher, you know, higher percentage of the time. So I think, you know, the Fed's view is that we're basically at full employment right now, 4% or so. But if we go up to four and a half, the Fed's going to be starting to worry that this whole thing is unwinding in a bad way and then they'll be really assessing is inflation bad news, bad news transitory, or is it getting into into into inflation expectations?
- [12:24]
John
It's difficult to say with that in mind, Bill, that this Federal Reserve is in a good place. Do you think it's in a good place?
- [12:29]
Bill Dudley
Well, they're in a good place in the sense that the economy, the starting point for the economy is in a good place. They're not in a good place in the sense that they're being hit with shocks that are bad for growth and bad for inflation and they don't really know what the policy is going to be yet. So I think they're not in good shape in the sense that, let's put it this way, they like where their car is sitting today, but they now have to drive down the road. Big foggy environment.
- [12:54]
John
April, thanks for having make sense of it. Appreciate it. Bill Dudley, that the former New York Fed president. Lisa, after a conversation like that, you wouldn't have guessed the equity market is up by 1.2% on the S and.
- [13:04]
Lisa Abramowicz
P. I don't go understand in any way why a stagflationary environment would be positive for risk assets. I think that that was sort of what Bill Dudley had to say as well. You raised a point though. If this is a Fed that still is going back to the transitory idea and believes as their base case that these tariffs are going to have a one time inflation ramification, but that will die down, then why wouldn't they be more inclined to cut rates in the face of weakness? And that goes to this dovish aspect that's being reflected in markets.
- [13:35]
John
Mike McKay joins us now. He's run out of the news conference to catch up with us. Michael McKee, the T word makes a comeback in the news conference. What was your reaction?
- [13:44]
Mike McKee
Well, it did cause my eyebrows to go up a little bit. And I wondered if he had been warned against that. But seriously, you guys had the smart people on ahead of me. Bill and Lisa Abramowicz. I agree with both of the things that they said that Bill Dudley said. This Fed is lost. And I think that is the case. They don't have any idea what's going on in the economy. And as Lisa said, you really can't believe or take seriously anything that they projected today because they don't know this stuff has a half life of the next tweet. So at this point, the Fed is just trying to reassure the country, which probably explains what we're seeing in the markets today, is that Jay Powell sounded like he was reassuring. But I wouldn't take any message out of this. Everything that he said after Good afternoon, I would sort of put to the side.
- [14:37]
Lisa Abramowicz
What did you make, Mike, of his complete dismissal of the University of Michigan sentiment survey?
- [14:43]
Mike McKee
Well, that's a kind of standard thing for Fed officials. The old we watch what they do, not what they say. And people have the inflation numbers in these surveys have been distorted a lot in the past because people don't really have a good handle on what the inflation rate is. They just know their grocery prices are going up. So I can understand why he said that. And it was just a one month move in the longer run. The shorter run has moved up for a couple of months. So I think this is maybe a little whistling past the graveyard in terms of not trying to give the impression that the Fed is worried and going to have to take some action.
- [15:20]
John
Mike McKay, appreciate the updates. Looking forward to coverage right today and into the weekend as well. Lost the process here. Equities up nicely by 1.2% on the S&P 500. That bounce continues with us around the table to close things out. Amanda Lyneham of blackrock. Amanda, where to begin? So lots of process here. One thing we haven't talked about enough and Lisa mentioned it coming into the decision, a reduction in cut. How important is that to this market?
- [15:43]
Amanda Lynam
Well, good afternoon. Thank you for having me. Two things jump out to me. One is going back to the growth inflation mix being more challenging. A lot of this was baked in heading into this expectation. And so I think that's part of why we're seeing the market reaction. We've had just such a bruising few weeks in the equity market. Most forecasters have reflected lower growth and higher inflation. And I think that's part of what's driving this here. And I would just underscore something that Bill Dudley said, which is I think this just makes the growth backdrop all the more critical because the Fed is telling you that inflation will not allow them to be responsive. And so really that 1.7% growth in the SEP, slightly below trend, that really has to hold up for risk assets to validate this move because the Fed's telling you that they can't respond as it relates to Kutty. I think maybe that's why you're seeing some modest relief in longer end yields in the bond market. I think on the margin that could be somewhat helpful versus the counterfactual. But I don't think it's the main driver. I think the main driver here is that a lot of this bad news was baked in heading into this expectation. A more challenging growth inflation mix is the base case and I think it warrants some widening in credit spreads.
- [16:47]
Lisa Abramowicz
Do you think it's positive that he resurrected the transitory word?
- [16:51]
Amanda Lynam
I mean, I think it was accompanied with a healthy dose of we're not quite sure what's going on. It was absolutely. So I think the market is kind of looking through that. But from my perspective, his kind of reinforcing that the labor market is still in a solid place is to me the key thing. Because if you think what's driving the resilient growth that we've seen over the past few quarters in the US it's the consumer in aggregate if we have a higher layoff rate. So if corporates start to be concerned about margins and they flex that layoff tool more aggressively, which is still quite low, that's a situation where that weakness that's so far confined to the low end consumer could extend more broadly. So what to watch micro level commentary, high frequency data on the labor market, capital markets functioning. Right. The idea that corporates can issue just at a higher cost, that's fine for market functioning. I think where the Fed starts to get concerned is if the markets are frozen.
- [17:43]
Lisa Abramowicz
There's also this question of the long end of the yield curve and why it should go down. If this Fed is biased to looking through any inflationary shock as simply near term, if that is their base case and we will not know for a longer period of time, does that raise concerns about longer term entrenched inflation, especially at a time of global fiscal releveraging?
- [18:05]
Amanda Lynam
Absolutely. And I think our base case is that longer and yields are structurally higher. Right. So that's, that's the view across a variety of platforms at BlackRock. And I think right, right now what we're seeing is that Treasuries are not a reliable hedge fund in risk asset underperformance. And so what you've seen, you've seen to a certain extent Treasuries can rally when there are growth concerns but it kind of peters out at a certain point. And really for rates to rally significantly, you actually need to have more valid recessionary like concerns. You can't just have a growth slowdown. So what we're seeing is that it's almost like a quasi hedge, but it's not, it's not a firm hedge. As for the inflation expectations, I do think it is concerning that they're not expecting inflation to get back to target until 2027. Similar message from the ECB frankly where President Legarde said it's going to be a further path. When you think about the spillovers of German fiscal spending, right. Higher bond yields, these markets don't operate in a vacuum, right. So equities versus credit or Europe versus US. And so I think we are bracing for structurally higher rates and structurally higher inflation.
- [19:08]
Peter Fisher
If we have 1.7% and if we get the X axis wrong and it extends, that tells me Republicans get tossed out of Congress just as one talking point and there'll be huge pressure. Does it just devolve down to price up, yield down and we go through 4% as Bob Michael told us.
- [19:26]
Amanda Lynam
Right.
- [19:26]
Peter Fisher
For the conference?
- [19:27]
Amanda Lynam
I think so. I mean I think you asked earlier the unemployment rate that's really problematic for consumer credit. 5% is the, is the metric that we're hearing that things really become problematic. But I think on the way to that journey. So when you start to get to four and a half percent I think you start to get concerning it's the velocity of that move and often these are nonlinear. Right. So the deterioration happens quickly as we've seen in prior cycles. So I think that is very concerning. But to me it really just hinges on Cher Powell mentioned a low hiring, low firing environment. If that firing picks up, that's really problematic.
- [19:58]
John
That's exactly where I wanted to go. Tomorrow morning, 8:30 Eastern Time, jobless claims drop. Help me understand the scenario. If we start to see some weakness that how will markets respond to that? How will we think about the Federal Reserve's response to it?
- [20:10]
Amanda Lynam
I think markets have front loaded it a bit. You've seen some widening in credit spreads. European credit is still holding in well. So I think that points to the US concern from, from my perspective the Fed though is somewhat constrained in how they can respond to that given the inflation backdrop. So I think that's why the deterioration in the growth backdrop is so important to monitor. And it's also probably more critical than it was even a few months ago, because a few months ago the expectation was inflation will continue to cooperate. If further progress on inflation is delayed, then you're. You somewhat have one hand tied behind your back in terms of what you. How. I guess the question is how much of a growth deterioration needs to occur before the Fed can react. And it seems to be that the bar is pretty high for that.
- [20:50]
John
That's another way of saying bad news is bad news. If it is bad news over the.
- [20:53]
Lisa Abramowicz
Next few weeks, especially when accompanied with even near term inflation, I'm just struggling to understand what kind of offset they can provide by cutting rates at a time where inflation is a concern. I just keep going back to that and this question about how supportive that will actually be. I guess that if the news is bad enough and they cut rates, it'll still be. But you also might get a little cheaper borrowing cost.
- [21:15]
John
This goes to the wait and see. Confidence was a word that came up in that news conference. How long before you have any confidence? I'm not sure anyone can have any confidence right now. How long do they have to wait before they see?
- [21:25]
Amanda Lynam
Well, that's, I mean, that's what I think makes the high frequency data so valuable. And as we saw during the pandemic, it was the company commentary that actually shined the light on how pervasive the supply chain disruptions are. I think this just underscores the point you have to be invested for a wide range of growth inflation and policy policy outcomes. All right, so it's not even just the growth inflation mix, it's the policy mix. So incorporating floating rate exposures, real assets, inflation hedges, those are all things that are really valuable because I think there are just so many paths on this probability tree that we really have to position for all scenarios.
- [21:54]
Lisa Abramowicz
When we were coming into 2025, there was this belief that we have on one hand a Fed put, and on the other hand a Trump put. Trump put still out there. Sort of a question mark, the Fed put. People are saying, well, maybe they're going to be willing to step in. Can we really frame the issue in that kind of way? I guess that that's sort of the fundamental question of today, where the market's treating a dovish response from the Fed as being positive for risk assets. Is that the new, is that the new paradigm? Is it the old paradigm?
- [22:21]
Amanda Lynam
The one thing that jumped out to me From Chair Powell's comments previously, he had talked about that they would respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market. If the now base case is 4.4% unemployment, then it seems to me like you'd actually have to have something beyond 4.4% unemployment to step in and respond to. It's saying that the bar is actually high because right now they're telling you that they're expecting some weakness in the labor market.
- [22:44]
Peter Fisher
Beyond that, unlike the three of us, you went to class on Friday at Villanova years ago. We remember this well. When you study stagflation or hints of stagflation, there's a point where every central bank has to choose price change, finance or jobs, jobs, jobs. I see no indication of anything, but they're going to capitulate to a higher unemployment rate down the road and ignore the rate markets. Is that the way you read it?
- [23:10]
Amanda Lynam
I mean, I think, I think that's what their forecasts are telling you is that they're baking in some deterioration. And so what does that mean for risk assets? Stag. A stagflationary environment is unquestionably negative for risk assets because in that scenario you have a bit of a double whammy of wider spreads and higher rates.
- [23:25]
Peter Fisher
We don't do logs this late. We've all been up since 5am or 4am but the answer is it's nonlinear. Is it?
- [23:30]
Amanda Lynam
That's really what I think that's right. And I think.
- [23:32]
Peter Fisher
Was it in the press conference?
- [23:33]
Amanda Lynam
I think that's right. And I think when you take a step back, yes, we've had some widening in credit spreads, but all things considered, we're still really tight. And so we're baking in an expectation for an ongoing rebuild of risk premium. So I think the market is rallying today because this was not as hawkish as it could have been. I think the risk coming into this was maybe we just saw one cut in 2025. We kept the two. But, but going forward, I think we should be baking in some, some widening in credit spreads. And we would view that as an opportunity. And I heard your conversation with Bob earlier. There is a lot of demand on the sidelines. So I think being opportunistic is really.
- [24:03]
John
The key to take you seeing the same thing. How much appetite is there for fixed income?
- [24:05]
Amanda Lynam
We are. And I, and I think I would say save for the lowest quality pockets of the market where, for example, triple C interest coverage is still below one times. And so that's a very tenuous place. But foreign demand yield Based demand, long duration spread product, high quality spread product. The US is the largest, broadest market for that. And so there is a significant amount of demand. But, but I do think that there needs to be a rebuild of risk premia given this is unquestionably a more challenge. Challenging growth inflation mix.
- [24:30]
Lisa Abramowicz
Where is that money coming from? Does it come at the expense of risk assets like stocks? And I speak at a time where Howard Marks of Oaktree came out and said he prefers credit right now over an equity risk because you are getting income and you have a greater degree.
- [24:43]
Amanda Lynam
Of certainty and you're higher in the capital structure. And I think maybe one of the understated themes of the past few quarters or maybe past few years is that corporate bonds, because of the higher interest rate are throwing off more cash just on an ongoing basis. And so just reinvesting that cash is something that's important. Foreign demand has been a big challenge. I will say on the margin we are bracing for some of the foreign demand for US dollar credit to over time perhaps be repatriated back to European markets now that European yields are quite attractive. And so on the margin that's something to watch for. But again these, these risk assets don't happen in a vacuum. But I, but I do think there's a significant amount of demand whether it's coming from equities. It's coming, it's coming maybe from different parts of, of, you know, foreign markets.
- [25:26]
Peter Fisher
I mean one thing we haven't talked about here, we got blackrock on the desk here. I mean John is just simple bit dog moonshot out to 85,000. I mean, you know, these are the indicators and technically it's not telling me anything but I'm sorry, you got 78,000.
- [25:39]
John
To 85,000 gold signals something to. What are we seeing there? From crypto? From gold.
- [25:45]
Amanda Lynam
I think that's diversification. I think that's the market saying that it's fear. I think the gold is, is perhaps central bank buying, some other dynamics going on there. But I think a big part of it is portfolio diversification. Real assets, inflation hedges, uncorrelated exposures, Oriental rugs. The stagflationary backdrop that we suggested that the 6040 portfolio wouldn't, wouldn't fare that well in that sort of sounds.
- [26:08]
Peter Fisher
She's a machine.
- [26:09]
John
I love who's been forced new to buy rugs.
- [26:14]
Peter Fisher
Look, I'm looking at this. I don't have any technical veracity on Bitcoin.
- [26:17]
Lisa Abramowicz
Wait, is that, Well, I get pause. Is that your haven trade, Oriental, Oriental.
- [26:23]
Peter Fisher
My haven trade is tuition.
- [26:26]
John
Finally found out what's happened with a triple leverage cash.
- [26:31]
Peter Fisher
My God, this upset BlackRock. I was in syndication with them. They wouldn't go for triple leveraged all cash.
- [26:35]
John
Amanda, appreciate your time. Fantastic. What a moment. Amanda Lynam there of blackrock. Perhaps we've been fast and loose with the S word stagflation. We're looking for growth close to 2% and inflation anywhere between 2, 2 and a half, 3%. But it's the mix and this is what Amanda was talking about, the mix here. This is the challenge the Federal Reserve is facing. It is the central bankers dilemma, typically the kind of dilemma you see in emerging markets and not in developed markets. Downside risk to growth, upside risk to inflation and a Federal Reserve uncertain, low on confidence and not sure what to do.
- [27:07]
Lisa Abramowicz
And that's the reason why gold is really telling us something and that is this real question about whether the United States with the policy mix, stocks and the monetary policy backdrop and inflation where it's coming from can avoid a stagflationary like spiral. Not necessarily stagflation of the 1970s but an environment that makes it more difficult to repay a debt load that's causing a lot of concerns for a lot of people.
- [27:29]
Peter Fisher
Peter Fisher taught me this. Get your hands out. Radio. It doesn't work. We're going to go with this. The answer is here on on a nominal GDP basis today the lower growth was balanced up by stagflation to a pretty much level nominal gdp. What happens to Amanda Line Line's call if we get nominal GDP to begin to compress? That's what's not in the discussion.
- [27:51]
John
I'll tell you what this market's doing for the benefit of our TV audience like this up until the right just sort of up and to the right. That's the story today. We'll see if this holds. We are positive by 1.5% on the S&P 500 going into the closing bell. Coming up on the close, the team's going to take it over. They'll be catching up with the former Fed governor Betsy Joke from New York City this afternoon. Good afternoon to you all. Thank you for choosing Bloomberg. This was Bloomberg Surveillance.
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