Iran Leader Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Shut

Summary

Bloomberg Businessweek Podcast Summary:

Episode Title: Iran Leader Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Shut
Date: March 12, 2026
Hosts: Carol Massar & Tim Stenovec
Featured Guests: Jennifer Welch (Bloomberg), Rocky White (Tufts University), Jason Greenblatt (American Century), Michael Lowen (IDA Ireland)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the global and economic repercussions following Iran's decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed amid ongoing conflict with the US and Israel. The hosts and a panel of experts analyze implications for global energy markets, security risks surrounding maritime chokepoints, the cascading effect on credit and bond markets, and how heightened geopolitical instability is impacting corporate and sovereign investment strategies worldwide.

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Key Discussion Points & Expert Insights

1. Strait of Hormuz Closure & Escalating Tensions ([02:07]–[06:54])

• Iran’s Intransigence:
  Ayatollah Moeshtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, signals a continued strategic closure of the Strait:

  “The lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used.” – Tim Stenovec quoting Khamenei [02:28]
  Additionally, Iran hints at activating conflict fronts where “the enemy is vulnerable.”

• US Response & Market Impact:
  Temporary waivers for the Jones Act (requiring American vessels for inter-port transport) are announced to stabilize surging oil prices.
  President Trump, on social media, emphasizes US energy dominance and a hardline approach against Iranian nuclear ambitions.

• Expert take (Jennifer Welch):
  Welch, Bloomberg’s Chief Geo-Economics Analyst, stresses the uncertain timeline and hardened Iranian stance after recent hostilities:

  “Tehran’s just going to be far more suspicious of US intentions going forward…this may have convinced them that they need a nuclear deterrent.” [05:03]
  She also cautions on the risk of Iran doubling down both on nuclear and proxy weaponization fronts.

• Global Economic Fallout:

  “The longer this conflict goes on, the bigger the hit will be to not only the US economy, but the global economy…and the more markets will be nervous that these disruptions aren’t temporary.” – Jennifer Welch [06:44]

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2. Maritime Security, US Policy & Strait of Hormuz Threat ([09:59]–[17:46])

• Jones Act Waiver—Limits and Necessity:
  Rocky White (Tufts University) explains waiving the Jones Act allows foreign ships to transport petroleum domestically, slightly relieving regional shortages but not addressing the Strait closure’s macro impact. [10:48]

• Mine Warfare & Naval Capabilities:
  UK sources cite evidence of Iranian mines in the Strait.
  Rocky warns capabilities were likely underestimated:

  “Iran has approximately 5,000 mines…this is a known challenge. Actually, those four Avenger class minesweepers [recently retired]…probably should have been continued, in my opinion.” [11:56–14:29]
  On Iran’s ability to lay mines:
  “You can deploy mines…with fishing dhow vessels. Mines are not cutting-edge tech, but they work—especially in a strait as constrained as Hormuz.” [11:56]
  The lack of US Navy’s forward posture surprises Rocky given mining risks.

• US Intelligence Blind Spots:
  Carol Massar raises whether the US underestimated Iran’s asymmetric capabilities.
  Rocky outlines two scenarios: either capabilities were underestimated, or focus was on higher-level targets, missing “smaller” threats like mines and caves with anti-ship missiles. [15:06]

• Conflict Timeline:
  Rocky forecasts active conflict will likely conclude “by the end of April,” especially with Trump–Xi talks as a potential milestone.

  “I do think this will wrap up no later than the end of April, at least from a military perspective. I’d be very surprised if at that point…the Strait of Hormuz isn’t secured.” [16:53]

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3. Credit Markets, Bond Issuance, and Private Market Stress ([20:55]–[31:40])

• Market Volatility & Bond Deals:
  Amidst conflict, US corporates rush to issue record-level bonds as a hedge against possible worsening conditions (Amazon, Salesforce examples).

• Investor Appetite & Risk Considerations:
  Jason Greenblatt (American Century) explains recent strong demand:

  “Yield is pulling in capital…It was a nothing event (when war broke out)…a nothing burger because spreads widened 5 basis points in investment grade, yields were higher, got bought.” [25:43]

• Pockets of Stress:
  Concerns mainly with lower-quality (single Bs, triple Cs) borrowers and business development companies (BDCs), especially if disruptions spillover into high-yield public debt.

  “When you start seeing large redemptions and liquidity events, that’s when [it] becomes a bigger problem for the credit markets.” [24:59]

• Energy Prices & Consumers:
  Higher oil and gas prices already hitting US consumers—situation depends on conflict duration:

  “It’s the duration, how long does this last?...If we have resolution in a few weeks, okay, that may not hurt you…” [26:47]
  Strategic petroleum reserves would provide only a temporary buffer.

• Default Risks in Technology/Software:
  Some research highlights potential 15% default rates if AI disruption accelerates.

  “Does it happen all at once? We don’t think so. Does it happen cumulatively over time? It’s too early to say.” [29:40–30:02]

• Investment Strategy Recommendations:

  “You want to be nimble, meaning you have liquidity. You want to nibble, but don’t feast…We want to be really selective and I think you want to trade this market. This isn’t one where we want to buy a 30-year [bond] from the last week or two of new issuance and hold it for 30 years.” [30:59]

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4. Foreign Direct Investment, Ireland, and Global Strategic Shifts ([35:03]–[45:53])

• FDI Amid Turmoil:
  Michael Lowen of Ireland’s IDA reports record FDI, with 36% YoY growth during global instability, largely due to US companies reinvesting and new entrants seeking stable gateways to Europe.

  “Existing companies continue to invest in stable locations, and particularly so when maybe there’s challenge and change. And we saw that and were a beneficiary of that.” [35:47]

• War in Iran—Broader Impact:
  Michael expresses hope for resolution, while voicing concern about prolonged uncertainties:

  “The longer this goes on, the more uncertainty it brings, the more challenge it brings for all of our economies…and the more impact it’s going to have on the civilian casualties and civilian life in the region as well.” [38:16]

• Globalization Drivers:
  Market access, international talent, and supply chain resilience are cited as key motivators for continued cross-border investment, even as nations turn inward.

• Ireland’s Tech Ambitions:
  Ireland is positioning as an AI/data center hub, with both established players and new AI entrants (OpenAI, Anthropic) investing in infrastructure and R&D in the country.
  National energy policy is built around renewables rather than nuclear, aiming to power data infrastructure sustainably. [43:03]

• US-Ireland Deepening Ties:

  “Ireland is now the fifth largest investor in the United States of America…It just shows you the evolution the Irish economy has been on.” [44:14] The episode closes with an invitation to an Irish AI and digital conference, illustrating the close economic and tech ties between the US and Ireland.

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Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “The lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used.”
  – Ayatollah Moeshtaba Khamenei, quoted by Tim Stenovec [02:28]

• “Tehran’s just going to be far more suspicious of US intentions going forward…this may have convinced them that they need a nuclear deterrent.”
  – Jennifer Welch [05:03]

• “Iran has approximately 5,000 mines…this is a known challenge.”
  – Rocky White [11:56]

• “Yield is pulling in capital…It was a nothing event (when war broke out)…a nothing burger because spreads widened 5 basis points in investment grade, yields were higher, got bought.”
  – Jason Greenblatt [25:43]

• “You want to be nimble, meaning you have liquidity. You want to nibble, but don’t feast…We want to be really selective and…trade this market.”
  – Jason Greenblatt [30:59]

• “Existing companies continue to invest in stable locations…and we saw that and were a beneficiary of that.”
  – Michael Lowen [35:47]

• “Ireland is now the fifth largest investor in the United States of America…It just shows you the evolution the Irish economy has been on.”
  – Michael Lowen [44:14]

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• [02:07] US–Iran conflict update & oil market impact
• [04:08] Geo-economics analysis with Jennifer Welch
• [09:59] Maritime law waiver, Strait of Hormuz update
• [10:48] Rocky White on mines, US Navy, Hormuz
• [16:53] Rocky’s conflict end forecast
• [20:55] Credit/bond markets with Jason Greenblatt
• [25:43] Energy prices, consumer impact
• [29:31] Tech default rates and timing
• [30:59] Investment strategy counsel
• [35:03] Ireland FDI & global trends—Michael Lowen
• [44:14] US-Ireland economic ties
• [45:53] AI conference invite

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

The episode presents a candid, nuanced view of how global conflict—especially a critical maritime closure by Iran—reverberates across the world economy. The discussion is both urgent and pragmatic, blending immediate security concerns, energy market volatility, and financial sector responses with a forward-looking appraisal of global investment and technological strategy. There is a clear sense of uncertainty, but also emphasis on adaptability, selective risk-taking, and the importance of international alliances.

Transcript

[Carol Massar]

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[Podcast Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news this is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg businessweek Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanweck on Bloomberg Radio.

[Carol Massar]

In the meantime, the Trump administration plans to issue temporary waivers for a century old maritime law requiring American built ships being used to transport goods between US Ports to stop surging oil prices. We've had that come out. We've also heard that the US Navy could start escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month. That came from Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Tim, that was on CNBC.

[Tim Stenovec]

Mean meantime crude hits $97 a barrel WTI Brent hitting $100 a barrel amid weakening shipment disruptions with Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Moeshtaba Khamenei signaling no intention of ending the Strait of Hormuz closure, specifically saying, quote, the lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used. Studies have been conducted on opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and would be highly vulnerable and their activation will take place if the state

[Carol Massar]

war persists now, Iran seems to be doubling down, comes specifically to holding on its hold really on global energy markets and the global economic leverage that it has as a result of that. Meantime, we've had President Trump out today on social saying a few things, but he also said the United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But a far greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle east and indeed the world. I won't ever let that happen again. This is coming from President Trump earlier today on Social so where are we with Moore and back with us and looking at the war through that geo economic lens as she does so well, is Bloomberg Economics chief Geo Economics analyst Jennifer Welch. She joins us from our Bloomberg DC Bureau. Jenny, good to have you back. First up, timeline seems like there's no end in sight. If you look at kind of what we're hearing from both sides, meaning the US And Iran. Is that true? Is there anything going on behind closed doors that we need to know about or what we see and what we've laid out? Tim and I, that's pretty much it right now.

[Jennifer Welch]

Yeah. I think as you mentioned, the timeline here is very uncertain and a lot depends on what the US And Israel would consider to be achieving their war aims and therefore giving them the opportunity to seek an exit ramp. I think President Trump has started to signal he is looking for it. But really the key question is what is he willing to offer Iran in terms of assurances that would lead them to be willing to accept it and would Israel go along with it? And at this moment, it's very hard to say. Even though we're 13 days into this conflict.

[Tim Stenovec]

We've heard, Jenny, that over and over again that the US Government had wanted to remove the ayatollah. And now with the ayatollah son in power, I wonder if there's any difference in not necessarily the form of government, but the government's view of the United States. And if that means that if he's in power, that will be a barrier to the president ending this war.

[Jennifer Welch]

I think certainly what we can expect, and this may not be just about the individual but the broader system that he represents, that after the US And Israel struck Iran, that there is going to be more of a hardline position towards the United States, that some of the negotiations that were happening prior to this war, it's harder to imagine those restarting in the wake of it, that Tehran's just going to be far more suspicious of US Intentions going forward because of the fact that they were negotiating when this war break broke out. And if anything, this may have convinced them that they need a nuclear deterrent in order to really be able to rely on their own security.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah. It does make us wonder and I know we've heard some conversations on Bloomberg today about, you know, have we created perhaps an enemy or an entity, Iran, that whether it's three years, five years, 10 years when the rebuild is done, do they just come out with a come at the United States with a vengeance?

[Jennifer Welch]

I think there is that risk, but I think it's a present risk. And I would offer, and I think to a certain extent the Trump administration is right on this, that it was a risk beforehand. Right. That even though there were negotiations ongoing, the United States and Iran certainly weren't partners, they were not friends, their interests were quite divergent. And there were a lot of ways in which Iran was rebuilding, the capacity to pose more of a threat to the US but certainly after this war, regardless of how it ends, I would anticipate that Tehran will double down on those efforts and not just by the way with the nuclear weapon front, but also also on the proxy front and the ability to stage attacks abroad, which may be what the supreme leader was hinting at in that very ominous statement.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, Jenny, last 30, 40 seconds. The problem of the US war in Iran, is it growing in terms of its impact on the US Economy, the global economy, or are we still kind of in a wait and see mode?

[Jennifer Welch]

The longer this conflict goes on, the bigger the hit will be to not only the US Economy with the global economy and the more markets will be nervous that these disruptions aren't temporary.

[Carol Massar]

All right, going to leave it on that note. He listen, thank you again. I know there's a lot going on over there in the D.C. bureau, but you keeping us up to date on it all. Jenny Welch, she's Bloomberg Economics chief Geo economics analyst.

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[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg businessweek Daily. Coming up after this,

[Carol Massar]

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[Tim Stenovec]

Well, the Trump administration plans to waive a century old maritime law. We're talking about the Jones Act. It requires American ships to be used to transport goods between US Ports as it seeks to blunt surging Oil and gas prices. That's according to people familiar with the matter. Also, it's becoming increasingly evident that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That's according to the UK Iran's new supreme leader used his first comments to the media to say the critical Waterway should stay closed.

[Carol Massar]

All right, so a lot to get to with Rockford Weitz, Rocky Whites. He's professor of practice and director of the Maritime Studies program at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is once again with us and he's joining us from Medford, Massachusetts. Rocky, great to have you here with us. Will waiving the Jones act move the needle? What is your interpretation? And read on that.

[Rocky White]

Yeah, great to be back with both of you. Waiving the Jones act will help a little bit. So what that does is it enables foreign vessels to also join US Flagged vessels in carrying what's mostly cheaper refined products. So gasoline and diesel from the US Gulf coast to either New England or the west coast, instead of just being on US Flag tankers, it now can be any tanker. So, so that would help a little bit because the gasoline and diesel prices are much cheaper in the US Gulf coast than they are here in New England where I am, or, or on the West Coast. So it'll help a bit, but there's other things that may be necessary.

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, see, I was going to say that helps a little bit, but doesn't do anything when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. And that really seems to be the choke point here, Rocky, right now. And I'm wondering what your view is, if indeed this is among the latest news. The UK says it's evident that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. What does that do to the prospect of even if this conflict ends soon, what does it mean for this critical waterway?

[Rocky White]

Yeah, well, so the short answer is nothing good. But the longer answer is that none of this is really a surprise. Though it is a bit surprising to me that the US Navy is not a little bit more out in front on this. So it's been known for a long time that Iran has approximately 5,000 mines. The Iranian navy, the larger ships, they're all gone. They were gone last week. But there's a lot of small boats you can deploy mines with, even the fishing dhow vessels that are the local fishing vessels. So mines are this is not a kind of cutting edge technology, but it works. And especially in a strait as constrained as the Strait of Hormuz, it can work and it worked for them in the 80s. And so one thing I'll just note, because I think it's worthy of conversation, in January, we actually retired our last four Avenger class minesweepers and sent them back to the United States. I think that was a mistake. We do have minesweepers there, the littoral combat ships with the minesweeping capability. So we have three of those there or in the region, I should say. But. But it would be nice to have those. Those vessels were actually very effective. They were getting older, but. But they. They probably should have been continued, in my opinion.

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, what do the mines look like? And are they. Are they completely underwater or they. Do they flow like buoys, just help us understand this world?

[Rocky White]

Yeah.

[Jason Greenblatt]

So. So

[Rocky White]

the honest answer is it depends on the mine. So there's a different. There's a bunch of different kinds of mines. Many of them will float subsurface, and many of them are magnetic, so they will be attracted to a ship's hull. So if the ship passes nearby, the magnetation comes in, and then once it connects with the metal, then it explodes. So those are the most common. You do have smart mines as well. I don't know if the Iranians have any of those, but those are certainly existing technology. It wouldn't be surprising that it's essentially a mine that maybe has a little bit of smart technology that can. It's almost then in kind of ways like an undersea drone. And so. But the. But they have a lot of mines. But again, we've been dealing with mines for, you know, at least 120 years in naval warfare. So this is a known challenge. Actually, those four Avenger class minesweepers that were sent back to the United States from Bahrain are actually wood hauled.

[Tim Stenovec]

Wow.

[Rocky White]

That's intentional. Because those magnetic mines don't go to the wood. Right. So it's easier to mine sweep. So I hope that that helps.

[Tim Stenovec]

That does. Thank you.

[Carol Massar]

Hey, is this another reminder that. Or just indication that maybe the US Intelligence on everything that's going on in Iran. We had a great Bloomberg Big Take story that got into this about that maybe how the US underestimated what Iran could do and its capabilities and how long it could do it. And is this another indication. I'd love to get your read on that.

[Rocky White]

Yeah, we're really in the fog of war, so I would say we'll be able to answer that question in a couple weeks probably. So I think there's two alternative theories here. One is what you mentioned, which is there was an underestimation of the capability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, to use either very small craft, so not their navy, their navy's gone. But use small craft or use land based systems. And that's known that they probably have some anti ship missiles that are already pre positioned, even probably in caves along the coast, that northern coastline of the Strait of Hormuz. So it very well could be the case that we underestimate that our intelligence community underestimated that challenge. The alternative theory is that the US Military, both the Air Force and the Navy, have been focused on much higher level targets hitting out those missile launchers. And they've hit, I mean they've hit thousands. I think the count is up to 7,000 targets now. And they're starting with the biggest ones that would be the mobile launchers or taking out some of the factories that would make some of those either drones or the, or the anti ship missiles. So it might just be they didn't get down to the list of the smaller targets on the Strait of Hormuz. So that's the alternative theory, which one ends up being the ground truth. It's honestly too early to tell, at least for me. I live in the unclassified zone, so I don't know, I don't know what I don't know. But I have a sense that it's one of those two kind of theories of the case.

[Tim Stenovec]

You know, Rocky, we're kind of asking everybody how long they think that, that this will go on. And nobody knows, and especially those of us who are not, you know, in the classified world. But we've had estimates from guests today that range from several weeks up to four months. What's your view? Just on what's known publicly.

[Rocky White]

Okay, so I've been watching this very closely, as you both know. So I think we're probably talking weeks, unlikely months. I would be surprised if sort of combat operations aren't over by the end of April. I think what's interesting, it'll be very interesting to watch this in the lead up to Trump's visit with President Xi of China on March 31st. That's 19 days away. So what happens between now and then I think is gonna be worth watching, but I do think that this will wrap up no later than the end of April, at least from a military perspective. At that point, I think this should be largely stabilized. I would be very surprised if at that point a combination of the United States Navy, the NATO navies and even the Asian Navy, whether it's Japan or others, have secured the straight Hormuz Yeah,

[Carol Massar]

yeah, we'll have to see, right? You do wonder if it still becomes a little bit unease in the region. Rocky thank you so much. Rocky White, this is Bloomberg.

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[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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[Carol Massar]

Hey, we did want to just kind of set up our next segment because just a day after US Corporate bond buyers lent the largest sum ever to America's companies, they quickly tightened the screws again as the war in Iran sent oil prices and credit risk gauges higher.

[Tim Stenovec]

Salesforce drew tepid demand for a $25 billion bond sale intended to fund a share buyback amid lingering worries over the software sector's exposure to AI. By contrast, Amazon completed a two day, $54 billion equivalent debt RA fund its AI build out that company also upsizing a euro bond offering on Wednesday to 14 and a half billion euros. It's around $16.7 billion US that's just a day after selling $37 billion of bonds in the US market. Is your head spinning yet?

[Carol Massar]

A small little issue there. All right, let's see what our next guest has to say about that and the credit markets overall. With us is Jason Greenblatt. He's vice president, senior portfolio manager, director of corporate credit research for American Century Investments where he co leads the corporate markets team, is a member of the Global Fixed Income Investment Committee. That means he's kind of important. He oversees more than 40 billion in a, um in fixed income assets. American Century, though, has about 327 billion as a firm overall in a um.

[Rocky White]

Welcome, welcome.

[Carol Massar]

Nice to have you here.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Thank you for having me. It's great to be here with you.

[Carol Massar]

You know, it's interesting before we got started, it's been quite a week already.

[Jason Greenblatt]

I'm exhausted trying to catch my breath coming into the studio. We had a record day on on Tuesday. The pipes are flowing in investment grade credit.

[Tim Stenovec]

Why?

[Jason Greenblatt]

Why?

[Tim Stenovec]

Well, why in this environment?

[Jason Greenblatt]

I think this was well telegraphed so investors were ready for this. If you look at the demand for the Amazon deal, how many times over was it subscribed? Yesterday we had salesforce again over subscribed. Everyone was, was waiting for this. I think everything else that's been going on, whether it's AI, private credit, high yields, etc. The war, that's, that's all still going around, but the pipes are flowing.

[Carol Massar]

Why is though investors like the comfort with all of this? Like I thought, you know, Salesforce was kind of an interesting thing and this was to fund a share buyback. Was that the problem? Because I know when that headline crossed, when they were initially going to say that we're like what this is what they're doing, is it?

[Tim Stenovec]

Or is it because it's Salesforce and it's seen as susceptible to a disruption? Yeah, I don't know.

[Carol Massar]

How are investors kind of weeding through?

[Jason Greenblatt]

I think, I think if you look at their business model, folks are concerned. Right. The share price is down, it's down by what, 30, 40% from its highs. Like you said, share buyback, when you look at, at the leverage, the statistics, the credit metrics that we look at, doesn't look that bad. And then when you factor in the valuation that they printed at yesterday, yeah, it was, it was coming at triple B, triple B minus levels. We have bonds in the market that much lower credit quality. This is single A rated today. Single A rated today. Maybe it gets downgraded a few years in the future, but it's trading today as if it was already downgraded.

[Carol Massar]

All right, so what is, are you seeking any stress within the credit markets and the debt markets?

[Jason Greenblatt]

So the pockets of stress that we're seeing, again put the war side because that's still fresh. Certainly BDC's business development companies, private credit, can't turn on your Bloomberg terminal without seeing another headline of another fund seeing redemptions. That's certainly an area that we're very focused on and thinking about. Is there spillover, is there spillover into close, for example, broadly syndicated loans, those go into to close. Two thirds of clothes own that broad market. We're watching that very close.

[Tim Stenovec]

At what point would you be watching it and say, okay, yes, this is the official moment that there is spillover. What would you see that would, would cause you to say that?

[Jason Greenblatt]

So the redemptions that we're seeing in BDC are one thing. Those are meant to be typically long term investments where there, there are, you know, investors going in know that this is committed capital.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Jason Greenblatt]

I think when you start to see the publicly traded instruments, high yield bonds, high yield leverage loans that are more in the public market, even though some of those companies may be private that they were LBO'd.

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Jason Greenblatt]

When you start seeing large redemptions in liquidity events, that's when you say, oh, that's going to spill over and that's going to become a bigger problem for the credit markets.

[Carol Massar]

Jason, if we start to see, I mean, if we continue to see rates kind of stay where they are, even potentially trend higher, like I do think about the rate environment a lot. Right. This is what we've talked about with private credit, that deals done in a low rate environment look good. And then of course, when rates go higher, not so much. But if they, if, if that rate environment we continue to see rate pressures, do we start to see maybe more cracks emerge?

[Jason Greenblatt]

Yes and no. So the lower quality part of the cohort, those borrowers that really don't have a lot of cash flow, could be more susceptible. But I also think, why are rates higher? Are they higher because of oil and what's going on with Iran?

[Carol Massar]

Yeah.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Or are they higher because we're in a, in a growth environment? If growth is, is GDP is growing at 2, 3% this year, I think these companies are fine. And what we're seeing. Back to your question before. Why so much demand? Yield. Yield is pulling in capital. Last Monday, so a week and a half ago, right after the war broke out, it was a nothing event. We call it a nothing burger. A nothing burger because spreads widened 5 basis points in investment grade, yields were higher, got bought. Monday was a day, a day of discipline. It wasn't a day of opportunity.

[Tim Stenovec]

So go ahead. You were, you were talking a little bit about how things have changed in the last few days. And if we think about the effect on consumers, the effect on the economy, I wonder how higher energy prices, gas prices up to what, 360 a gallon nationally average up from $3 just a little more than a week ago. Heating oil hitting $5 a gallon, if that hits consumers, what does that do to the US Economy?

[Jason Greenblatt]

It's the duration, how long does this last? It's going to hit consumers. It's already. My 82 year old mother is asking me the same question. How long is my gasoline prices, my food price is going to be.

[Tim Stenovec]

What did you tell her?

[Jason Greenblatt]

I said, well, let's see how long this, this lasts. If we have resolution in a few weeks. Okay, that may not hurt you, but also keep in mind we have seasonality to, to oil and gasoline. There's a summer blend.

[Bethenny Frankel]

Right.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Typically we go higher as we go into the summer. Anyway, question is, is the duration, how long does this last? How quickly can we get resolution. We had the discussion earlier this week about the duration, the impact to oil prices. We're certainly not making a prediction on the duration of what's going on in the Middle east, but certainly thinking about the strategic reserves and the release, it doesn't really unclog the situation in terms of prices.

[Michael Lowen]

Right.

[Jason Greenblatt]

It's not enough. It's only a handful of days worth of supply and that's not going to in our minds reduce the price.

[Carol Massar]

It gets back to the big question. Our last guest said best case six weeks, worst case three to four months. That was his view. Do you have a best and worst case when you think about this environment and how long this goes, we're not

[Jason Greenblatt]

that good to on the politics side to say it's going to be in this, this time frame. What we can do is to stress test and say these are the sectors the consumer is going to be under pressure. We know, let's be careful, confident, re underwrite our credits, our borrowers that we own and if it goes on longer, who's next? So we know where the bullseye is the center of, of the fallout. But let's think about the second and third order magnitudes.

[Carol Massar]

I am also curious, you know we had a story, it said how US borrowers in fact are rushing to take advantage of the the still open capital markets before things potentially turn worse should the war escalate and oil prices increase further. Again, it's like the time we have to figure this out. Are you seeing that again, like I think about what happened in the last week or so or just even this week about issues coming to market. Are you continuing to see that or

[Jason Greenblatt]

expect that where it's the lowest quality part of, of the credit markets, where there is some pause. So think low single Bs, triple Cs. Those were companies that probably needed to restructure anyway. I think when you look at the broadly syndicated loans, leveraged loans or even private credit, those are companies that tend to be smaller. They do they need access to capital? Not today. And we're also, we haven't talked about software. How about the software sector? Where does that spill over?

[Tim Stenovec]

Okay, perfect segue. That's exactly what I want to talk about. Salesforce drawing that tepid demand for a $25 billion bond sale. Perhaps lingering worries over of the software sector's exposure to AI. How do you view how vulnerable that entire sector is to just how quickly things are moving forward when it comes to this tech?

[Jason Greenblatt]

You just said it. How quickly. So does it become an issue in months or Years.

[Tim Stenovec]

I mean, the development of this is so quick, it's mind blowing.

[Jason Greenblatt]

That's right. And there are, there are stories, there's research out there talking about default rates at 15%. One of your colleagues had on earlier the CEO of Hamilton Lane. And I thought what he said was really interesting. 15% default rates is eye opening. Is that cumulative or is it all in one year?

[Michael Lowen]

Right.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Does it happen instantaneously or does this happen over several years?

[Carol Massar]

Right.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Think back to the financial crisis, the high yield market. We had default rates peak in November of 2009. Right. So even after we said there was the bottom in the market that was less than 15%. So we're calling for does it happen all at once? We don't think so. Does it happen cumulatively over time? It's too early to say. And then we think about the maturity profiles of those companies that may be in the center of the software. Bullseye. Those maturities are 20, 28, 29, 30. Why would they come to the market today when investors are running for the hills and making redemptions? Maybe they can wait till 20, 27 or 28 to address those maturities when we have more information.

[Carol Massar]

So what's your advice to investors in this environment? Alaska was more like play it safe, more cash, like be careful. And that was certainly talking about from the equity side and some different. How do you guys see it from the debt markets.

[Jason Greenblatt]

Yeah. So I would, I would call it as this. We want to. You want to be nimble, meaning that you have liquidity. You want to nibble, but don't feast. This is not an environment. When you look at, you know, broad index spreads, they're not screaming cheap. We're still at generational tights, 30 year tights in a lot of parts of the market, whether it's ig, high yield. I think you want to be really selective and I think you want to trade this market. This isn't one where we want to buy a 30 year fill in the blank from the last week or two of new issuance and hold it for 30 years. We're going to, we're going to take that concession bonds that come cheap, let the spreads compress, sell them and reload when there's a better opportunity.

[Carol Massar]

I think we have to wrap. I know you both had. I had a question.

[Tim Stenovec]

I was just. About Penn State. It's okay.

[Carol Massar]

Jason Greenblatt, vp, Senior Portfolio Manager, Director of Corporate Credit Research for American Century. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

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Stay with us.

[Tim Stenovec]

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily. Coming up after this

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You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube.

[Tim Stenovec]

Story from the Wall Street Journal caught our attention today. It's about the gift that the Prime Minister of Ireland, the Taoiseach, is bringing to the White House for the annual St. Patrick's Day visit next week. $6.1 billion in planned investment.

[Carol Massar]

That's a pretty nice gift.

[Tim Stenovec]

Is a nice gift.

[Carol Massar]

I'm going to say that the president's going to be pretty happy about that.

[Tim Stenovec]

Michael Owen will also be in Washington, CEO of IDA Ireland. It's the country's foreign direct investment agency. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. We do get to check in with you a couple of times a year. It's a nice way to sort of understand your world, understand the macro environment. But it's different right now than it was just two weeks ago because of the US War, Iran, US and Israel war in Iran. How does that change your world or the way you think about foreign direct investment?

[Michael Lowen]

Yeah. So I think. Good afternoon, Tim and Carol. Firstly, it's great to be back with you here in New York. So firstly, I think when we think about the change that's been occurring almost for the last number of years, but the pace of change, and if you want to call it almost constant change, and of course, in the last number of weeks we've seen that with the current conflict. And I think that's brought a new dynamic, if I'm honest. I would have been heavily engaged in the US in the first weeks of the year, on the west coast, meeting with C Suite and so forth. I think everyone had sort of got to a pattern and had understood how to manage investment and flows. And maybe I'll go back to where last year we finished last year actually with the strongest level of FDI investment in the history of the state. So it's hard to believe as an FDI agency that we actually produce those numbers in a year where there was a substantial amount of turmoil and change. But why was that? And maybe what I think can reflect on that is say, okay, there's two things. First of all is when we look at the investment profiles that we won last year, it also represents two things. Firstly is existing companies continue to invest in stable locations and particularly so when maybe there's challenge and change. And we saw that and were a beneficiary of that. And secondly, for new entrants looking to go into European market, Ireland was a chosen location for those new entrants. So we saw all of our metrics and investment moving upwards last year by a factor of almost 36% year on year, which was really, really strong. But now we're facing into a new dynamic. And that new dynamic potentially as we look at the conflict today is what that damage is going to have on oil prices, how that's going to impact inflation. I remember in Europe, particularly in Europe, we felt that shock of inflation when the Ukraine war commenced. So in Europe we've almost been through this in the last two to three years and now we're almost having to face that again. But I think it's going to be probably a broader impact on the world economy to maybe the Ukrainian war was, which was really felt in Europe in the first instance. So I think those dynamics continue to be at play as we look forward.

[Carol Massar]

I am curious a couple of things I want to ask you. First of all in terms of this war, the US war in Iran, Michael, do you think it is a longer term problem and some longer term dynamics that are impacting the global economy? Even if, I don't know, just give us an idea of how you guys are looking at it.

[Michael Lowen]

Yeah, well, look, I think it's very difficult, difficult to make that prediction at the moment, you know, because obviously we're just in week two. And so from an Ireland perspective, I think from a global investment perspective, one would hope that, you know, we see this come to a quick, a quick conclusion, we get dialogue, you know. And what's a quick or two? Well, I think, I think hopefully it is because, because ultimately the longer this goes on, the more uncertainty it brings, the more challenge it brings for all of our economies, be honest, the more impact it's going to have on the civilian casualties and civilian life in the region as well. And remember, it's not just in one country, it's actually across the region is where the challenge is as well. And we're very conscious of that. And in Ireland, I think you Know, we also are very clear in our own history of, you know, having conflict within your own island, you know, and we knew what it was to come through that conflict and get to resolution. That's why we're very focused on we need to get the resolution in continental conflicts because that's what brings prosperity. And we in Ireland are an absolute shine example of how, if you want to call it dialogue and negotiation, get you to a point of prosperity and growth.

[Tim Stenovec]

I'm trying to understand how in a world where you saw countries increasingly turn inward and tariff barriers go up, you saw foreign direct investment increase at such a level. Was it because the investment was coming less from U.S. companies, more from companies that, that were not U.S. based?

[Michael Lowen]

Yeah, so it's an interesting question. I think it's a really valid question. So if I look at the breakdown of our investments last year, remember before I start there, the, the largest cohort of FDI investment in Ireland is US investment. So our largest installed base is US investment. And actually 70% of our investments came from the installed base. So. So the US Continues to be.

[Tim Stenovec]

So it was the companies that were

[Michael Lowen]

there spending, spending more. And what would they do? They were diversifying in terms of products and services. They were investing heavily in research and innovation, which is really deepening in Ireland. And also they were investing in capital for sustainability and productivity. So upon productivity gains as well. And the last thing I'll say is that we also had 30% of our investments last year. Just under 80 investment were first time investments into Ireland. And over 50% of those first time investments actually came from the United States. So continues to be. Because US Companies that look to internationalize, they have to go to international markets. They want to go into Europe and Ireland is a gateway to Europe.

[Carol Massar]

So Michael, is this just part of when we think about global supply chains? We learned this off of COVID It's just an increase in people spreading out their global supply chains, making sure they have access in markets where they're operating.

[Podcast Announcer]

Is that what that's about?

[Michael Lowen]

I think. I think there's a few things, Carol. I think that's one. I think market access is important. I also think access to international talent is important because remember, if you have a company that wants to grow and internationalize, it needs human capital to do so. And no nation, no matter where they are, has all the human capital that's going to support that. So I think that also comes. I think the third area then is risk mitigation within supply chain or within organizations as people look to make sure that they build robust, I suppose, businesses and enterprises that serve global markets. And I can do that from different points in the world. So I think there's a combination of factors.

[Tim Stenovec]

So we're, we're so focused in the US and I'm sure you are in Ireland too on AI and the capex that these companies, the hyperscalers are spending when it comes to this and also the money that these startups are raising. What are you seeing in terms of AI related investment from US companies in Ireland?

[Michael Lowen]

In Ireland, yes. So I think in Ireland we were very early adopter of digital in infrastructure, you know, data centers.

[Tim Stenovec]

And there's a reason you spent a lot of time in Silicon Valley and a lot of sort of like Web 2.0 companies early on. Like when Facebook was called Facebook.

[Michael Lowen]

Correct.

[Tim Stenovec]

Like one of its first offices outside the US was in Ireland.

[Michael Lowen]

Correct. Remember when. And you're correct. When Facebook came to Ireland, Facebook was only a small fledgling company, you know, and today, you know, are a very different company, you know, with, with thousands of employees in Ireland. Like the same when we look at, at those large companies. So if you think about the Microsoft, the IBM, you know, all have very strong enterprises in Ireland and invested in digital infrastructure and indeed in AI capability and research. But also the new entrants to OpenAI, the Anthropics, you know, the Claude AI all have established in Ireland as well. So we have that cohort of both the large established and the innovation that's happening, but also those new entrants coming in, coming into the European market and global markets and Ireland being their location.

[Tim Stenovec]

Do you want data centers in Ireland?

[Michael Lowen]

We do, because in the US it's

[Tim Stenovec]

kind of a mix in different communities. You know, our power costs can go up. Yeah, they don't necessarily provide a lot of jobs because in the beginning when they're built they do, but then they kind of run by themselves.

[Michael Lowen]

So. So I think it's heavy. So I think in Ireland, as I said, we were an early adopter of data centers of digital infrastructure. We're very clear that there is a challenge in terms of data center. And I think we shouldn't ignore that. The challenge is to actually meet the energy demand with the demand for the digital transition. But they actually go hand in hand. Digital transition can't happen without an energy transition and a sustainable energy transition. And in Ireland we have actually put those strategies together. So we're actually looking in Ireland in terms of increasing our generation capacity by fivefold. And how we're going to do that is actually through renewable Offshore wind, in particular, onshore wind and solar continue to be the driving force in terms of bringing that energy reliability into the.

[Carol Massar]

No. Nuclear?

[Michael Lowen]

No, we don't have nuclear.

[Carol Massar]

Do you not want nuclear?

[Michael Lowen]

Well, that's a debate in Ireland. We won't have it today. I don't think the program will be long enough. But it is something, it's a debate here too. It is a debate everywhere. But we are strengthening the resilience on our greed in Ireland as well.

[Carol Massar]

You are headed to DC Investments that you guys are making in the United States. What is it like dealing with this White House?

[Michael Lowen]

Yes. So I think when we look at, from our perspective this week, and I suppose the events next week, sorry, in D.C. are so critically important for Ireland. And like it's a long standing relationship between Ireland and the U.S. you know, it goes deeper than a week in March. You know, it's a lot deeper than that. There's ties, you know, at a social level, at an economic level. And just to say a few things on this, it's to recognize, I think, that relationship between our two nations. It's also, I think, to celebrate the fact that Ireland is now the fifth largest investor in the United States of America, which is probably, it just shows you the evolution that Ireland economy has been on. And we're very, we actually appreciate and understand the investment of US Companies into Ireland is the reason why we're now the fifth largest investor because we've had those spillover effects in terms of the

[Carol Massar]

FDI growth of your economy.

[Michael Lowen]

And so it's like the rising tide. It lifts all boats. And I think in Ireland, you know, we're very proud of how we have that integration of our indigenous companies and our FDI companies working collectively to bring economic benefit to both the island of Ireland and indeed the coast companies which they serve. And those companies are not just Irish companies, they're also international and US Companies.

[Tim Stenovec]

When are we getting on the road and going to Ireland and doing our remote. I ask.

[Carol Massar]

I ask every time.

[Michael Lowen]

Well, I give you, I give you an opportunity. We're hosting, we're taking over the EU presidency this year for the, for the second six months of this year. We're hosting an AI and digital conference summit in Ireland in October. So if ever there was an opportunity to have, have to have Tim and Carol in Dublin, it's October.

[Carol Massar]

Are the bosses listening? I hope so. Michael, thank you. Appreciate Michael Lowen there, CEO of IDA Ireland. Safe travels. This is Bloomberg.

[Podcast Announcer]

This is the Bloomberg businessweek daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else. You get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from Table 2 to 5pm Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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