Alex Vatanka (3:13)

It's great to be with you. Look, I mean the new supreme leader is it's 56 years of age. He has pretty much lived his entire life, you know, in Islamic Republic, the system of which his father led for 36 years. We don't really know much about him in terms of his worldview. We know much about his father's worldview. We know it was one that was essentially about repression at home and confronting the outside world, particularly United States and Israel. But you know, the big question here is what would Mujtab Al Khamenei decide to do? And more importantly, because I think it's really important to remember Mujtaba Khamenei got this job because there's a consensus, particularly in the Revolutionary Guards to give him this role. He didn't sort of force himself onto the role. He doesn't have the political base in society to do that. He was given this role on a silver platter, essentially the way his father got it back in 1989. The question is what is it that the Revolutionary Guards want to do? Because they must have a hard look at their society. Yes, they are fighting this fight with the US and Israel, but they also have extremely angry Iranian population that could come out in the streets at any moment. So that would be a two front war. And again they have make a decision. With the death of Ali Khamenei is the arrival of Mujtab Al Khamenei that symbolic moment where you decide to go in a different direction once this war has come to an end? Or do they double down and stay the course the way Ali Khamenei wanted it to be? Because that's a very high risk strategy if that's the one they choose to go for.

Bloomberg Host (4:52)

I know you mentioned that it's a bit unclear as to how much continuity we should expect between his father and him in terms of worldviews. But I'm curious, just how important is this next leader for the Iranian people?

Alex Vatanka (5:08)

I have to point out that this idea of a supreme leader is man made. It was created in 1979, have only been two other so called supreme leaders. Khomeini and then followed by Khamenei, and now we have this Khamenei the second. So three supreme leaders in a country that really doesn't have much of a precedent for, for such a role. So the role essentially in many way is going to be one where the individual, the occupant of that office could shape it. It takes time to shape it. You know, there's nothing in the constitution or the sort of culture history of the country that tells us that role has to go in a certain direction. So for example, just to give you an idea, much about Khamenei could, as I said earlier, decide to stay with his father's legacy and sort of continue down that path, which would be a high risk strategy since his father essentially failed on all fronts. Or he could decide, you know what, I'm 56 years old, my people, they want me gone, they want the system gone. The only chance I might have now that I'm being bombed by the Americans and Israelis is look to my own people and at least seek another mandate. And to get that mandate, you've got to go in a very different direction. Because Islamism essentially failed as a model of governance in Iran. Nobody believes in militant Islamism except the hardcore elements to support the regime. So here's an opportunity for not just Mojave himself only, but the Revolutionary Guards, which essentially is the state within the state. They're the ones who are not just running the military operations right now against the US and Israel, you know, firing those ballistic missiles and drones, but they are actually have political power. So much so that they essentially gave this job to Majaba. So we have to wait and see. I think what the regime wants to do is to first see if they can get a good deal from the United States. What does that mean? That means what they call a permanent ceasefire. That's what they're asking for. Let's see if Donald Trump, the president, is going to give him something that looks like permanency spy. If they achieve that, then they have to turn around and look their own people in the eye and see what kind of a deal they can reach with them again. It could be one of accommodating the grievances of the people, or it could be one of mass killing like we saw a few weeks ago when they massacred tens of thousands of their own people. So that's a decision ultimately these post Ali Khamenei leaders have to make. And I have no way of knowing which way they're gonna go. But I can tell you this, they have never been under so much pressure as they are today.

Bloomberg Host (7:35)

Alex, just got about a minute left here. It almost sounds to me that perhaps Donald Trump, the president, was right in doing this, especially if it gets Iran on a path where more people in that country actually benefit.

Alex Vatanka (7:52)

You know, one would hope so. I don't think anybody's going to miss Ali Khamenei. Nobody's going to miss the Islamic Republic. It's really impossible to defend the Islamist system in Iran in terms of system, but it's early days to say if, if this system is going to collapse. You know, as I said, you could have in a worst case scenario, this system surviving and actually coming out the other end more hardened and more determined to, if you will, confront the United States and Israel. I hope that's not the case.

Bloomberg Host (8:20)

Right.

Alex Vatanka (8:20)

But it is a scenario for us to keep in mind.

Bloomberg Host (8:22)

The longer this goes on, just 30 seconds here, is it more likely that we have created a bigger, bigger enemy or. Not necessarily, not necessarily.

Alex Vatanka (8:33)

They could come out of this in terms of a shock to the system and realize, you know what, as a country, we just can't keep doing this anymore. For 47 years they've done it. Maybe it's time for them to rethink their strategy in terms of both US and Israel and focus on development of the country of Iran from within. This is exactly what the people of Iran want.

Bloomberg Host (8:50)

As we say every day, I feel like every hour, every minute, you know, so many different ways that all of this could play out and there's just lots of questions. Alex, thank you again. Glad we could get some time. Once again, Alex Fatalka. He's Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute specializing in Iran, joining us from the nation's capital.

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